Thousands of temporary residents are being squeezed out by Canada’s shifting immigration reality. Here’s what the country could lose

2026/05/12 Leave a comment

The human impact of the needed policy reversals and shame on those policy makers, federal and provincial, along with institutions that did not think ahead:

They’ve spent months and years living, studying and working toward the Canadian dream, once touted as the “economic engine” for this country’s post-COVID-19 recovery and future growth.

But after all their toil to build a new life here, their journeys have stalled. 

An IT specialist, a special-needs teacher, an engineer with two master’s degrees: They’re among hundreds of thousands of temporary residents who have been left in limbo by Canada’s immigration pivot.

After cranking out study and work permits to welcome the world to Canada after the pandemic, the government has reversed course, vowing to “take back control of the immigration system.”

Not only has Ottawa let in significantly fewer international students and foreign workers since 2024, it has also pulled the rug out from under hundreds of thousands of temporary residents already in Canada.

“Our plan is working,” Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab told a parliamentary committee recently. “It is to ensure that we have a sustainable immigration system for the future.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is trying to speed up transitioning 33,000 temporary workers to permanent residents while overhauling Canada’s signature “point system” for economic immigrants.

It’s a drop in the bucket: Nearly 1,940,000 study, work and visitor permits are slated to expire by the end of 2026 — with another 1,039,840 in 2027. And the annual number of permanent resident spots has been slashed from half a million to just 380,000.

So many temporary residents are living in uncertain and frustrating situations, even when they have Canadian work experience or education and have made huge investments to come here and boost their odds of staying. Processing delays, point systems that leave them at a disadvantage and bureaucratic obstacles are leading some to look elsewhere….

Source: Thousands of temporary residents are being squeezed out by Canada’s shifting immigration reality. Here’s what the country could lose

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Ottawa to start tracking which temporary foreign residents have left Canada after permits run out

2026/05/06 2 Comments

Long overdue:

Ottawa is for the first time to track which foreign students and other temporary foreign residents have left the country after their permits to remain in Canada expire, Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab told a committee of MPs on Monday. 

Economists have been warning for years that Canada has been dramatically undercounting the number of temporary residents living here by presuming that international students and others leave the country after their permits and visas run out. 

Ms. Diab said Monday the government is conducting a pilot program to track entries and exits by temporary residents, including international students, as part of an action plan to combat non-compliance. 

From this month, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada will record if they are in the country or have left, IRCC deputy minister Ted Gallivan told MPs. He said the department has been collaborating with the Canada Border Services Agency on collecting entry and exit data. 

The initiative was disclosed at the Commons immigration committee, which was questioning the minister about a critique by Auditor-General Karen Hogan into the failure of Ms. Diab’s department to investigate suspected cases of study permit non-compliance and immigration fraud….

Source: Ottawa to start tracking which temporary foreign residents have left Canada after permits run out

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Ottawa pressed to factor in 500,000 undocumented residents as it consults on immigration targets

2025/08/14 Leave a comment

Agree. Last year (finally), TRs were included, albeit imperfectly, the the plan and factoring in the undocumented and government related plans would be a logical next step:

…“Because Minister Miller was transparent with his attempt at regularizing residents without status, it is appropriate to suggest that the new minister put in the levels plan how many she thinks there are, and how many she thinks she could regularize,” he [Henry Lotin] said, referring to a plan to grant permanent residence to many undocumented people under Mr. Trudeau.

“Some highly skilled workers remain in Canada. Officially they have all lost their temporary social insurance numbers and they have all been told by their employers they can no longer work. Evidence has been brought forward to disprove that assumption.” 

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC Capital Markets, said in an e-mail that “a necessary condition” for any immigration, housing or economic policy is “knowing exactly how many people reside in Canada at any point in time. Unfortunately, that is not the case now.” 

“While in the past, the number of undocumented migrants was negligible, that is no longer the case,” he added. “It is significant enough to impact the macro picture and must be correctly accounted for.”

A 2024 Department of Finance briefing document, released though access to information laws, estimated there are up to 500,000 people living in Canada without the required immigration papers. …

Source: Ottawa pressed to factor in 500,000 undocumented residents as it consults on immigration targets

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Québec demande au nouveau gouvernement fédéral sa collaboration en immigration

2025/06/28 Leave a comment

Of note:

Québec demande à Ottawa de plafonner à 200 000 le nombre de résidents non permanents qui relèvent exclusivement du gouvernement fédéral sur son territoire. Dans une lettre envoyée à ses homologues, le ministre québécois de l’Immigration demande aussi que les régions québécoises soient épargnées par le tour de vis imposé aux entreprises qui embauchent des travailleurs temporaires.

Une « clause de type grand-père » doit s’appliquer aux compagnies en région qui ont embauché des travailleurs étrangers, affirme le ministre Jean-François Roberge dans une lettre dont Le Devoir a obtenu copie.

Le fédéral a décrété l’automne dernier que les employeurs pourront embaucher cette catégorie d’immigrants jusqu’à hauteur de 10 % de leur effectif total, alors que la limite était auparavant de 20 % pour la plupart des industries.

« Le refus de traitement des demandes dans les régions métropolitaines de recensement où le taux de chômage est plus élevé [est une] mesure efficace », explique-t-il. Laval et Montréal n’ont plus besoin de nouveaux travailleurs, alors que « le maintien du niveau de TET [travailleurs étrangers temporaires] dans certaines régions est crucial pour de nombreuses entreprises confrontées à d’importants enjeux de main-d’œuvre ».

Ottawa a déjà commencé à refuser de renouveler des permis temporaires dans les régions centrales de Montréal et de Laval.

Source: Québec demande au nouveau gouvernement fédéral sa collaboration en immigration

Quebec is asking Ottawa to cap the number of non-permanent residents who are exclusively under the federal government’s jurisdiction at 200,000. In a letter sent to his counterparts, the Quebec Minister of Immigration also asked that Quebec regions be spared the screwing imposed on companies that hire temporary workers.

A “grandfather-type clause” must apply to regional companies that have hired foreign workers, says Minister Jean-François Roberge in a letter of which Le Devoir obtained a copy.

The federal government decreed last fall that employers will be able to hire this immigrant category up to 10% of their total workforce, whereas the previous limit was 20% for most industries.

“The refusal to process applications in census metropolitan areas where the unemployment rate is higher [is a] effective measure,” he explains. Laval and Montreal no longer need new workers, while “maintaining the level of TET [temporary foreign workers] in some regions is crucial for many companies facing significant labour issues”.

Ottawa has already begun to refuse to renew temporary permits in the central regions of Montreal and Laval.

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ICYMI: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

2025/05/21 Leave a comment

Important analysis regarding a highly dubious assumption:

…But economists who have analyzed immigration statistics say that any reductions would not reflect the true number of temporary residents living here and may mean that pressure on housing and services will not be eased to the extent expected. 

Official population figures also fail to capture undocumented migrants who last year Mr. Miller estimated could number about 600,000. 

The economists warn that Ottawa is overestimating the number of temporary migrants who leave the country once their visas expire. This could have a serious impact on planning, including for housing demand, they say.

“The undercounting of non-permanent residents is an issue that must be addressed in order for this policy to be effective,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC.

There are just over three million non-permanent residents in Canada, according to the latest Statistics Canada population estimates. 

Non-permanent residents include international students, work-permit holders, asylum claimants and family members of work- or study-permit holders. 

Population estimates by Statscan presume that visa holders whose permits to stay here have expired leave the country within 120 days, but many do not leave and remain and work in Canada, said Henry Lotin, a former federal economist and founder of the consultancy Integrated Trade and Economics. 

“We know that many, perhaps even half, of these expired visa holders are awaiting permanent residency or a renewal of their temporary visa,” Mr. Lotin said. “The population estimates as presented assume expired temporary residents leave the country − that is a fiction.” 

“Policy makers and planners need accurate population estimates to plan adequate housing, infrastructure, health care and other social services. No one plans for population you are told you do not have.”

An analysis published last month by Mr. Tal, with input from Mr. Lotin, also expressed concern that Statistics Canada is not counting people with extended Temporary Resident Visas who do not have work permits. …

Source: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

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Canada is potentially heading for a labour supply decline as immigration policy abruptly changes

2024/10/24 Leave a comment

Hard rather than soft landing, albeit necessary correction:

A series of rapid policy changes aimed at reducing the temporary resident population in Canada could lead to an overall shrinking of the labour force and a potential economic slowdown, economists predict.

A new report from Bank of Nova Scotia says that Ottawa could be “over-correcting” in its attempt to rein in the number of temporary residents in the country, which topped three million people for the first time this July, or 7.3 per cent of the total population.

The bank’s economists predict that the cumulative effect of Ottawa’s shift in immigration policy could lead to a 1-per-cent contraction in Canada’s labour force over the next two years and weakening economic growth if businesses do not boost productivity accordingly.

The federal government announced new restrictions to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program on Monday, raising the minimum wage requirements for the high-wage stream of the program – a move that Ottawa says is designed to incentivize the hiring of domestic workers….

Source: Canada is potentially heading for a labour supply decline as immigration policy abruptly changes

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More measures coming to reduce temporary residents, Canadian minister says

2024/08/03 Leave a comment

Stay tuned, more signs of reality, both substantive and political:

Canada’s government is preparing to unveil a suite of measures to clamp down on temporary immigration and has no plans to follow through right now on a broad program offering status to undocumented residents, the country’s immigration minister told Reuters.

“The era of uncapped programs to come into this country is quickly coming to an end. This is a big shift. You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop immediately,” Marc Miller said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday.

Canada has long prided itself on welcoming newcomers, and the current Liberal government has overseen a dramatic increase in the influx of new residents, especially temporary ones, as many employers struggled to fill vacancies coming out of the pandemic.

But over the past year the tide has shifted: Immigrants are being blamed for a worsening housing situation along with an affordability crisis in the country. Critics have accused the federal government of bringing in too many people.

A Leger poll conducted in July found 60% of respondents said there are too many immigrants coming to Canada.

“I’m not naive enough to think Canada is immune to the waves of anti-immigrant sentiment. … Canadians want a system that is not out of control,” Miller said in a phone interview.

Canadians “want a system that makes sense. And they want one that still has a lot of welcoming aspects we’ve been proud of, but it’s got to make sense,” Miller said, predicting immigration would be “a top issue, if not the top issue, in the next election,” expected to take place in late 2025.

The Canadian government has already outlined some measures. In January it announced a two-year cap on international students – an area of Canada’s immigration system that got “overheated” and was not meant to be “a backdoor entry into Canada,” Miller said.

In March the immigration minister announced Canada’s first-ever cap on temporary immigration. Canada wants to reduce temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years from 6.2% in 2023. That would be a cut of about 20% from Canada’s 2.5 million temporary residents in 2023.

But in its recent monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada expressed doubts that the government could meet its temporary residents goal, noting that non-permanent residents made up 6.8% of the country’s population as of April and that “the share is expected to continue rising over the near-term.”

The bank is right to say achieving this goal is a challenge, but it is a “reasonable” one given the suite of measures Canada plans to announce over the next several weeks, Miller said.

Miller would not give details but said these measures could include changes to post-graduate work permits and enforcement.

Asked if his government had made a mistake in allowing rapid growth in temporary residents, Miller said, “Every government makes mistakes. I think we are all human.” But “coming out of COVID, in particular, we were facing massive labor shortages.”

REFUGEE INFLUX

Meanwhile, Canada is seeing record levels of refugee claims – more than 18,000 in June, according to the Immigration and Refugee Board. This is despite government efforts to deter people by closing the land border to asylum-seekers through a contested bilateral agreement with the United States and by implementing new visa requirements for Mexicans.

Canada cannot dictate how many people file refugee claims but it can make it difficult for asylum-seekers to reach the country. Miller said the government may impose stricter criteria on temporary resident visas to prevent asylum-seekers from coming.

The government had also previously said it would pursue a regularization program to give status to undocumented residents.

That is not on the table before the election, Miller said, but he noted there is a possibility of sector-specific programs.

Source: More measures coming to reduce temporary residents, Canadian minister says

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Canada might struggle to rein in surge of temporary residents, Bank of Canada projects

2024/07/26 Leave a comment

Sobering. See Ivison’s commentary after this article:

The Bank of Canada is projecting that the federal government could fall short of its goal to shrink temporary residents’ share of Canada’s population over the next three years.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced in March that Ottawa would attempt to reduce their share of the population from 6.2 per cent to five per cent by 2027.

But on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada predicted that the government would miss that target. The bank’s monetary policy report — released as part of its announcement to reduce interest rates — said that non-permanent residents’ (NPRs) share of the population has actually grown since the goal was set in March.

“NPRs represented 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April — much higher than at the time of the March announcement — and the share is expected to continue rising over the near term,” the report said.

“This suggests that it will take longer for planned policies to reduce NPR inflows to achieve the 5% target.”

The central bank report does note that there is “considerable uncertainty” about its projections.

“Details on how most temporary resident permit programs will be adjusted are not expected until later this year,” it says, adding that their scenario “will be revised as further measures are announced and more details on program changes become available.”

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said in a statement that the department will be including measures to address the influx of temporary residents in Canada in the upcoming immigration levels plan.

“The levels plan is expanding to include both temporary resident arrivals and permanent resident arrivals. It will be tabled in the fall following consultations with provincial and territorial counterparts and others as part of Canada’s annual levels planning,” the statement said.

Targets expected to be ironed out over summer

Miller met with his provincial and territorial counterparts earlier this spring, and the targets are expected to be ironed out over the summer.

The bank’s report comes as the government has been taking measures to temper the massive rise in people who migrate to Canada on a temporary basis to work or study.

Miller had also announced plans to scale back the number of international students by putting a two-year cap on new admissions in January.

Recent data from IRCC shows that there has been an increase in the number of student permits approved this year compared to 2023, which itself was a record year.

The government approved 216,620 student permits in the first five months of 2024, compared to 200,505 permits over the same period in 2023.

But the numbers for the cap on student visas wasn’t finalized until April, and the IRCC numbers may not yet reflect those changes.

Source: Canada might struggle to rein in surge of temporary residents, Bank of Canada projects

John Ivison: Trust the Liberals to fix immigration? The Bank of Canada doesn’t

…It is apparent that the Bank of Canada feels like it has to step in to clean up the federal government’s mess.

In its Monetary Policy Report, the bank said that NPRs will continue to rise in the near term and it will take longer than predicted to reduce inflows to achieve the five-per-cent target.

“Considerable uncertainty continues to surround the future path of net NPR flows,” it said.

If NPRs continue to leave Canada or become permanent residents at the rate observed since 2021, achieving the target would require reducing average annual gross NPR inflows by around 70 to 80 per cent across the temporary foreign worker program, the International Mobility Program and the asylum-seeker program, in addition to imposing a cap on the number of international students.

Mike Moffatt, an economist and senior director at the Smart Prosperity Institute, said the bank is clearly questioning the credibility of the federal commitment to the five-per-cent target.

“I think it’s fair. They’re basically saying the government isn’t going to do what they claim they’ll do. I don’t remember the last time I saw that from them,” he said.

It is a sign of how undisciplined immigration policy has become that the central bank feels it has to step out of its lane to admonish the government.

Source: John Ivison: Trust the Liberals to fix immigration? The Bank of Canada doesn’t

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Temporary residents in Canada rise to 2.8 million ahead of government restrictions

2024/06/21 Leave a comment

Highlights the challenges the government has in reversing growth that it encouraged and enabled:

The number of temporary residents in Canada swelled to 2.8 million in the first quarter, underscoring the challenge facing a federal government that is looking to restrict migration to the country.

Temporary residents – a group that includes international students, people here on work permits and asylum claimants – now comprise 6.8 per cent of the total population, up from 3.5 per cent two years ago, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday.

Over all, the population grew by roughly 243,000 or 0.6 per cent during the first quarter, bringing the total to more than 41 million.

Canada is experiencing some of its fastest population growth in decades, fuelled almost entirely by immigration. The number of temporary residents has more than doubled over the past two years, raising concerns about Canada’s ability to welcome so many people, particularly in housing markets with low supply.

Source: Temporary residents in Canada rise to 2.8 million ahead of government restrictions

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One way to decrease temporary residents is to make them permanent, ministers suggest

2024/05/13 Leave a comment

Still boils down to the overall numbers, both temporary and permanent:

…Several ministers warned the new policy would create added demand for their provincial immigration programs as temporary residents apply to stay in the country. They pitched expanding their provincial programs as a win-win solution to keep people in Canada permanently.

“The fact people are already here, their impact on affordability has already been baked in, so it’s smart,” Miller said.

“But it doesn’t mean by extension that everyone’s entitled to stay here or be here in Canada.”

Ottawa can also do more to seek people who are already in Canada when it comes to federal permanent residency programs, he said….

Source: One way to decrease temporary residents is to make them permanent, ministers suggest

Also:

Talks about reducing the number of temporary foreign residents in Canada have kicked off between the federal government and provinces, with the Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledging that there needs to be better co-ordination to shrink numbers across Canada.

The Forum of Ministers Responsible for Immigration (FMRI) met in Montreal on Friday, where Mr. Miller asked his provincial and territorial counterparts to provide figures to show where there is a need to bring in more foreign workers, as he took the first step to reducing numbers.

There are now about 2.5 million temporary residents, a number that includes asylum seekers, international students and people here on work permits. The government plans to reduce the proportion of temporary residents in the population from 6.2 per cent to 5 per cent over the next three years. That would decrease the temporary resident population by about 19 per cent….

Source: Ottawa holds first talks with provinces about reducing temporary foreign resident numbers

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