#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 16 June Update

The latest charts, compiled 16 June as overall rates in Canada continue to decline along with increased vaccinations (still largely first dose, fully vaccinated just under 14 percent).

Vaccinations: Minor relative changes. Most significant is China is now ahead of France and Sweden. Also, Atlantic Canada ahead of Germany and Japan ahead of India (pre-Olympics push?)

Trendline charts

Infections per million: No relative changes and recent surges levelling off save again for the Prairies (mainly Manitoba).

Deaths per million: No relative change.

Vaccinations per million: Canadian vaccination rates continue to exceed G7 less Canada with Quebec maintaining its slight lead. Vaccination rate increase in immigration source countries driven by China (up 16% from last week) with Indian vaccination increasing more slowly (10%).

Weekly

Infections per million: No relative change.

Deaths per million: No relative changes.

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 9 June Update

The latest charts, compiled 9 June as overall rates in Canada continue to decline along with increased vaccinations (still largely first dose, fully vaccinated less than 10 percent).

Vaccinations: Minor relative changes, Canadian provinces all ahead of EU countries save Germany.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: No major relative changes and recent surges appear to be levelling off save for the Prairies (mainly Manitoba).

Deaths per million: No significant change, Prairies slightly ahead of Ontario.

Vaccinations per million: Canadian vaccination rates now exceed G7 less Canada with Quebec. US vaccination rates continue to stall. Vaccination rate increase in immigration source countries driven mainly by China and India to a lessor extent.

Weekly

Infections per million: No relative change.

Deaths per million: Prairies ahead of Ontario, driven by Manitoba.

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 2 June Update

The latest charts, compiled 2 June as overall rates in Canada continue in all provinces save Manitoba to come down along with increased vaccinations.

Vaccinations: Minor relative changes, Canadian provinces all ahead of EU countries save Germany.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: No major relative changes and recent surges appear to be levelling off save for the Prairies (mainly Manitoba).

Deaths per million: No significant change, Prairies slightly ahead of Ontario.

Vaccinations per million: Canadian vaccination rates have caught up to G7 less Canada with Quebec ahead as US vaccination rates are stalling.

Weekly

Infections per million: No relative change.

Deaths per million: Prairies ahead of Ontario, driven by Manitoba.

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 26 May Update

The latest charts, compiled 26 May as overall rates in Canada continue to come down along with increased vaccinations.

Vaccinations: Minor relative changes, with Alberta moving ahead of British Columbia and Ontario, Atlantic Canada ahead of Italy and France.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: Alberta levelling off and upsurge in Manitoba is resulted in Prairie rate marginally more than Ontario.

Deaths per million: No significant change.

Vaccinations per million: Canadian vaccination rates have largely caught up to G7 less Canada with Quebec ahead.

Weekly

Infections per million: Prairies ahead of Ontario, driven by Manitoba.

Deaths per million: No relative change.

India

While there is undercounting in all countries as analysis of above average deaths indicate (e.g., The Economist’s Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries), this article on India is of particular interest.

The official Covid-19 figures in India grossly understate the true scale of the pandemic in the country. Last week, India recorded the largest daily death toll for any country during the pandemic — a figure that is most likely still an undercount.

Even getting a clear picture of the total number of infections in India is hard because of poor record-keeping and a lack of widespread testing. Estimating the true number of deaths requires a second layer of extrapolation, depending on the share of those infected who end up dying.

In consultation with more than a dozen experts, The New York Times has analyzed case and death counts over time in India, along with the results of large-scale antibody tests, to arrive at several possible estimates for the true scale of devastation in the country.

Even in the least dire of these, estimated infections and deaths far exceed official figures. More pessimistic ones show a toll on the order of millions of deaths — the most catastrophic loss anywhere in the world.

India’s official coronavirus statistics report about 27 million cases and over 300,000 deaths as of Tuesday. The country’s response to the pandemic has been further complicated this week by a cyclone that is battering India’s eastern coast, with winds of more than 95 miles per hour.

Even in countries with robust surveillance during the pandemic, the number of infections is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases, because many people have contracted the virus but have not been tested for it. On Friday, a report by the World Health Organization estimated that the global death toll of Covid-19 may be two or three times higher than reported.

The undercount of cases and deaths in India is most likely even more pronounced, for technical, cultural and logistical reasons. Because hospitals are overwhelmed, many Covid deaths occur at home, especially in rural areas, and are omitted from the official count, said Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University. Laboratories that could confirm the cause of death are equally swamped, she said.

Additionally, other researchers have found, there are few Covid tests available. Families are often unwilling to say that their loved ones have died of Covid. And the system for keeping vital records in India is shaky at best. Even before Covid-19, about four out of five deaths in India were not medically investigated.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/26/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 19 May Update

The latest charts, compiled 19 May as the third wave continues.

Vaccinations: No significant relative changes

Trendline charts

Infections per million: Alberta spike continues and upsurge in Manitoba is driving Prairie rates closer to Ontario.

Deaths per million: Gap between G7 and Canadian provinces continues to grow.

Vaccinations per million: Canadian vaccination rates continue to catch up to G7 less Canada and are likely to exceed G7 shortly (at least in some provinces).

Weekly

Infections per million: Minor shifts between some EU countries and Canadian provinces.

Deaths per million: Atlantic Canada ahead of the North.

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 12 May Update

The latest charts, compiled 12 May as the third wave continues. The ongoing spike of infections and deaths in India per million still has not resulted in a change in the relative ranking given the size of India’s population.

Vaccinations: Overall, vaccination rates in Canada and most provinces continue to be comparable or greater to those of EU countries.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: The ongoing spikes in Alberta and Ontario continue, with Alberta showing the highest growth rate.

Deaths per million: Gap between G7 and Canadian provinces continues to grow.

Vaccinations per million: Vaccination rates in Canadian provinces continue to increase more quickly than overall G7 less Canada countries. USA has moved ahead of the UK. Canada and the largest four provinces all ahead of Germany but Atlantic Canada behind France, while Australia and Japan have moved ahead of the Philippines. The Increases among immigration source country continue to reflect China and India mass vaccination roll-out, but at lower rates of increase compared to Canadian provinces and G7.

Weekly

Infections per million: Sweden moved ahead of California, Italy ahead of UK, and Ontario ahead of all Canada.

Deaths per million: Ontario ahead of Prairies.

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 5 May Update

The latest charts, compiled 5 May as the third wave continues. The ongoing spike of infections and deaths in India per million still has not resulted in a change in the relative ranking given the size of India’s population.

Vaccinations: Overall, Canada and most provinces continue to be comparable or greater to EU countries.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: The ongoing spikes in Alberta and Ontario continue, with Alberta significantly ahead of Quebec, Ontario ahead of the Prairies.

Deaths per million: Gap between G7, Quebec and other provinces continues to grow.

Vaccinations per million: Vaccination rates in Canadian provinces continue to increase more quickly than overall G7 less Canada countries. Increases among immigration source country reflect China and India mass vaccination roll-out, but at lower rates of increase compared to Canadian provinces and G7.

Weekly

Infections per million: Sweden now ahead of California, Italy now ahead of UK, and Ontario ahead of Canada .

Deaths per million: France ahead of California, India ahead of Philippines

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 28 April Update

The latest charts, compiled 28 April as the third wave has started. The spike of infections and deaths in India per million, although dramatic, has not resulted in a change in the relative ranking given the size of India’s population.

Vaccinations: Overall, Canada and most provinces continue to be comparable or greater to EU countries. On a personal note, received my vaccine last week.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: Recent spikes in Ontario and Alberta continue to be more apparent.

Deaths per million: Canadian North ahead of Atlantic Canada.

Vaccinations per million: Vaccination rates in Canadian provinces continue to increase more quickly than overall G7 less Canada countries. Increases among immigration source country reflect China and India mass vaccination roll-out.

Weekly

Infections per million: Surge in Ontario has not changed overall ranking but surge in Alberta has resulted in Alberta surpassing Quebec.

Deaths per million: As noted, Canadian North now ahead of Atlantic Canada.

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 21 April Update

The latest charts, compiled 21 April as the third wave has started.

Vaccinations: Overall, Canada and most provinces continue to be comparable to EU countries.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: Recent spikes in Ontario and Alberta are more apparent.

Deaths per million: No major changes save for Italy now ahead of UK.

Vaccinations per million: Vaccination rates in Canadian provinces increasing more quickly than overall G7 less Canada countries. Increases among immigration source country reflect China and India mass vaccination roll-out.

Weekly

Infections per million: Surge in Ontario means province has more infections than Prairies.

Deaths per million: Italy ahead of UK.

India is grappling with rapid increase in cases which will likely show-up in their relative ranking over the next few weeks:

Authorities said hospitals in the Indian capital of Delhi would start running out of medical oxygen by Wednesday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the country faced a coronavirus “storm” overwhelming its health system.

Major government hospitals in the city of 20 million people had between eight and 24 hours’ worth of oxygen while some private ones had enough for just four to five hours, said Delhi’s deputy chief minister, Manish Sisodia.

“If we don’t get enough supplies by tomorrow morning, it will be a disaster,” he said, calling for urgent help from the federal government.

Mr. Modi said the federal government was working with local authorities nationwide to ensure adequate supplies of hospital beds, oxygen and antiviral drugs to combat a huge second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The situation was manageable until a few weeks ago. The second wave of infections has come like a storm,” he said in a televised address to the country, urging citizens to stay indoors and not panic amid India’s worst health emergency in memory.

“The central and state governments as well as the private sector are together trying to ensure oxygen supplies to those in need. We are trying to increase oxygen production and supply across the country,” he said.

Mr. Modi faces criticism that his administration lowered its guard when coronavirus infections fell to a multimonth low in February and allowed religious festivals and political rallies that he himself addressed to go ahead.

India, the world’s second-most populous country and currently the hardest hit by COVID-19, reported its worst daily death toll on Tuesday, with large parts of the country now under lockdown amid a fast-rising second surge of contagion.

The health ministry said 1,761 people had died in the past day, raising India’s toll to 180,530 – still well below the 567,538 reported in the United States, though experts believe India’s actual toll far exceeds the official count.

“While we are making all efforts to save lives, we are also trying to ensure minimal impact on livelihoods and economic activity,” Mr. Modi said, urging state governments to use lockdowns only as a last resort.

One local hospital with more than 500 COVID-19 patients on oxygen has enough supplies for only four hours, Delhi’s Health Minister Satyendar Jain said late on Tuesday.

Tata Group, one of India’s biggest business conglomerates, said it was importing 24 cryogenic containers to transport liquid oxygen and help ease the shortage in the country.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Protection has said all travel should be avoided to India, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson cancelled a visit to New Delhi that had been scheduled for next week, and his government said it will add India to its travel “red list.”

Several major cities are already reporting far larger numbers of cremations and burials under coronavirus protocols than those in official COVID-19 death tolls, according to crematorium and cemetery workers, the media and a review of government data.

Delhi reported more than 28,000 fresh infections on Tuesday, the highest daily rise ever, with one in three people tested returning a positive result.

“The huge pressure on hospitals and the health system right now will mean that a good number who would have recovered, had they been able to access hospital services, may die,” said Gautam I. Menon, a professor at Ashoka University.

On Tuesday, the health ministry reported 259,170 new infections nationwide – a sixth day over 200,000 and getting closer to the peak of nearly 300,000 seen in the U.S. in January.

Total coronavirus cases in India are now at 15.32 million, second only to the U.S., with epidemiologists saying many more infectious new variants of the virus were one of the main factors behind the latest surge in cases.

Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-new-delhi-running-out-of-medical-oxygen-as-india-grapples-with/

#COVID-19: Comparing provinces with other countries 14 April Update

The latest charts, compiled 14 April as the third wave has started.

Vaccinations: Overall, Canada and most provinces ahead of or comparable to EU countries.

Trendline charts

Infections per million: Overall steady increase of infections in most provinces with Alberta and Ontario showing steeper increases but still much better than G7 less Canada.

Deaths per million: No major changes.

Vaccinations per million: Significant shift with most Canadian provinces being slightly better than most EU countries.

Weekly

Infections per million: No relative changes.

Deaths per million: Philippines slightly ahead of India