Canada launches first-ever attempt to count visa ‘overstays’

2026/11/10 2 Comments

Overdue and welcome:

Canada has begun its first-ever population count to determine the number of people who are in the country without legal status after having overstayed their visas and losing their right to remain in the country.

The federal government conceded that there is no reliable estimate because getting to a specific number is both complex and a priority.

Estimates of the number of people who have no legal status in the country have varied between 20,000 and 500,000,according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, and two million people cited by Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre earlier this year.

The issue promises to be a political hot potato as the Conservatives last week called for a better system to track the departure of temporary visa holders.

The government is aware that the number of “unauthorized” immigrants in the U.S.,which in 2023 reached an all-time high of 14 million people, has been a polarizing issue in American politics for years.

New Canadian Media requested comment from IRCC and  Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Statistics Canada to confirm this unprecedented demographic exercise.

Statistics Canada, which has set up a special unit in its demographics section to calculate an estimate, has sought the assistance of academics including  Alain Gagnon, a professor in the Universite de Montreal’s demography department. Gagnon did not respond to NCM’s request for comment.

In the words of one immigration official, this population count is not straightforward, “given this population generally tries to stay undetected.”

StatCan demographer Julien Berard-Chagnon, said his agency wants to avoid the sort of dramatic “correction” it had to do two months ago after it was revealed that a large number of temporary residents who had lost status after their visas or permits expired, had in fact renewed their visas.

The agency added more than 200,000 people to Canada’s population count on Sept. 23.

“We are in a period of historical demographic changes,” Berard-Chagnon said. Inter-provincial migration, historically low fertility rates and high immigration levels since the COVID-19 pandemic are driving factors of these changes….

Source: Canada launches first-ever attempt to count visa ‘overstays’

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Canada is turning back refugees under a U.S. border pact. Why it’s headed to the Federal Court

2026/11/10 Leave a comment

To watch:

…The lawsuit focuses on the three most vulnerable subgroups — women, children and LGBTQ individuals — who are disproportionately disadvantaged by the system, the lawsuit argues.

Canada returned 4,323 claimants to the U.S. between Jan. 1, 2025, and March 30, 2026, according to court submissions. Of the total, 2,078 were recorded as female and 860 were children under 17; the majority were racial minorities.

The lawsuit said female refugee claimants fleeing gender-based persecution face additional hurdles to seek asylum protection under U.S. law, which treats their claims as “private matters outside the scope of protection.”

Refugee claimant children who are detained upon return face conditions such as lack of access to clean water, adequate food and hygiene supplies, which harm them disproportionately, causing long-term trauma, the lawsuit alleges.

In contrast, Canada was among the first countries to recognize gender-based persecution as a ground for refugee protection, and the detention of children is only a measure of last resort here, the lawsuit says.

The lawsuit also claimed detained LGBTQ migrants are 97 times more likely to be sexually assaulted than other detainees, and suffer abuse by jail staff who regularly put them in danger by outing them. In addition, it said trans people are being issued identity documents in the wrong gender, which put them at risk for mistreatment or discrimination.

“Imagine your kid is being fed food with worms, cloudy water,” Sande said in an interview. “And then it’s like, ‘Well, if you want to sign your rights away, that’s the best way to get your kid out of detention.’ And so we see that, and kids are separated from their parents.”

What the lawsuit is seeking

The litigants ask the Federal Court to declare that the designation of the U.S. as a safe third country is “invalid and of no force or effect” under Canadian immigration law if it rules the agreement breaches the equality rights under the Charter.

“These claimants face a disproportionate risk of abuse in American immigration detention, as well as barriers to obtaining refugee protection,” said Prasanna Balasundaram, director of Downtown Legal Services in Toronto. The legal clinic represents the Salvadoran family named only as “ABC, DE and FG” in the lawsuit….

Source: Canada is turning back refugees under a U.S. border pact. Why it’s headed to the Federal Court

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USA: Immigrants Are Being Systematically Returned Home Despite Court Orders

2026/11/10 Leave a comment

Deplorable. Expect this may be raised by the organizations arguing for non-application of the STCA. Good detailed analysis:

…To deport these immigrants, the administration has partnered with foreign governments, many with spotty human rights records. In exchange for money and foreign policy favors, they have agreed to accept deportees who cannot be returned to their countries of origin.

But a New York Times investigation found that this program results in many of them being pushed back to the very countries where the Trump administration itself cannot legally send them. Some of the United States’ foreign partners have made clear that will happen. And when it does, the Trump administration continues sending planes full of deportees.

The Times identified more than 110 people who had court-ordered protections and were handed over to foreign governments, only to then be passed on to home countries where they risked torture, sexual abuse or persecution — risks that have been validated by American courts.

In these cases, America’s partners served only as intermediaries. Officers roughed up immigrants or forced them onto airplanes. Some were threatened with imprisonment or confronted by armed police officers until they “volunteered” to return. Some now live in hiding. Others have simply vanished.

Human rights groups say that figure, which is certainly an undercount, shows that the Trump administration has created a bank-shot way of evading court orders and international law.

“It’s undermining the idea of asylum on a global scale,” said Alma David, a consultant with the National Immigration Litigation Alliance, referring to such forced repatriations.

“It’s immigration colonialism — making these governments do the dirty work,” she added.

Returning people to their countries of origin in the face of court orders would normally qualify as refoulement, a violation of international law. The State Department would not answer questions about whether its program amounts to refoulement by proxy. The administration has maintained that it has no say in, or responsibility for, what happens to deportees once they leave the United States….The growth of the administration’s third-country deportation program is the story of how the Trump administration sought to remake the asylum system to fit with its views on who deserves protection. It is also the story of how one Trump appointee, working under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, helped transform a State Department office from one that aids refugees into one that oversees deportations.

This article is based on a review of U.S. and foreign government documents, interviews with current and former U.S. and international officials, as well as interviews with deportees and their lawyers. Some spoke to The Times on the condition of anonymity, either because they were in perilous situations and feared for their safety, or because they feared retribution for speaking to reporters.

Administration officials say that immigrants who are sent to third countries and then return home often do so voluntarily. But a video from Equatorial Guinea shows immigrants being threatened with imprisonment if they do not agree to leave. Some people who agreed to do so said they felt they had little choice after arriving in a strange country with no documents and no hope of resettling there. Others said they agreed only when armed police officers showed up.

Records show that immigration agents specifically targeted for deportation people who had court-ordered protections. There is no evidence that this was done with the intent of evading court orders. Rather, American officials said the goal was deporting them from the United States. Whatever happened next, they said, was not a priority….

Source: Immigrants Are Being Systematically Returned Home Despite Court Orders

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Su | GTA election results show how immigrants are shaping communities

2026/11/10 Leave a comment

I think the lack of significant differences among generations, including non-immigrants and “old-stock” Canadians is one of the more significant findings:

…The swing back suggests a welcoming country that has lost confidence in how the system was being run, after years in which population growth outpaced housing and services. And the data support this. Among those who still say there is too much immigration, the most common explanations are that it is poorly managed by the government and that it hurts the economy. Meanwhile, 3-in-4 Canadians say immigration has a positive economic impact.

On the numbers, the generations barely differ. Between 46 and 52 per cent of first-generation immigrants, and their Canadian-born children say there is too much immigration, close to the national figure.

On values, they split. Asked whether too many newcomers are not adopting Canadian values, 63 per cent of first-generation immigrants agree, more than any other generation. Among the second generation, it is 52 per cent.

This is an old pattern. Immigrants who chose Canada often believe in it more fiercely than people born here. A Statistics Canada study found immigrants more likely than the Canadian-born to say Canadians share values like human rights and diversity, while those who arrived as children see things much like everyone else.

Anyone raised in an immigrant family, like I was, will recognize the result. Newcomers who worked hard to belong hold new arrivals to standards they set for themselves. Their children, who grew up in classrooms where diversity was ordinary, take it for granted. Every generation of newcomers becomes, in some measure, the gatekeeper for the next.

Future gatekeepers

What is changing is who those gatekeepers will be. Statistics Canada projects that by 2041, immigrants and their Canadian-born children will make up 52.4 per cent of the population under its main scenario, up from 40 per cent in 2016. Those projections were made before Ottawa announced cuts to immigration levels in 2024, so the crossover may come later. But the composition has already shifted.

In 1971, 12 per cent of recent immigrants were born in Asia, including the Middle East. By 2021, 62 per cent were. By 2041, Statistics Canada expects 1-in-4 Canadians to have been born in Asia or Africa. The immigrant-origin majority of the 2040s will look very different from the one that produced Lastman and Crombie.

Yet, Canada’s future majority will not be a voting bloc. It will be a conversation between generations, with different memories of arrival and differing ideas of what belonging requires.

Chow, Tedjo and Brown are living proof of what welcome makes possible. But leaders are not the whole story. When my children are old enough to answer the Environics survey, I hope they remember that someone once had to make room for each side of their family, and that it will soon be their turn to make room for others.

Source: Opinion | GTA election results show how immigrants are shaping communities

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Mark Carney to appear in video played at Canadian citizenship ceremonies

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

Other PMs have attended citizenship ceremonies and delivered remarks (e.g., PMs Trudeau and Harper). Trudeau apparently had a pre-recorded message but unclear how widely used. Couldn’t find Trudeau text but Harper speech had a political aspect with respect to asylum seekers. Carney video not yet up on IRCC website. Not as fussed about this as some as long as the message is non-partisan and general welcome to Canada:

New citizens of Canada will soon see a video featuring Prime Minister Mark Carney at citizenship ceremonies, according to access-to-information records obtained Blacklock’s Reporter.

Though government guidelines permit elected officials to attend in-person citizenship ceremonies, the ceremonies are officially supposed to be non-partisan.

“The Department of Immigration confirms that Prime Minister Carney’s bilingual congratulatory video should be received by the department in the near future,” said a French-language memo, per Blacklock’s Reporter.

The Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to Blacklock’s questions yesterday regarding the video.

Source: Mark Carney to appear in video played at Canadian citizenship ceremonies

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Sharma: Reflection on the 2027 Immigration Levels Plan: Substance Welcome, Presentation Opaque

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

One of the better overviews I have seen and agree with his summary conclusion. Same point on unnecessary obfuscation:

…In short, the 2027 plan clears long-standing backlogs for workers and certain humanitarian populations already in Canada while holding new temporary arrivals steady. The method of announcement, however, continues a pattern of selective presentation that attempts to obfuscate the true scale of permanent-resident admissions.

Source: Reflection on the 2027 Immigration Levels Plan: Substance Welcome, Presentation Opaque

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After their midterm win and Stephen Miller’s promotion, Democrats gear up for a fight on immigration

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

To watch. Likely chaos:

…Immigration and Latino activists lambasted Miller’s promotion, calling it an act of defiance after voters spoke clearly at the polls and a sign the president would continue his immigration policies. California’s Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla, who’s been a key critic of Trump’s immigration agenda, said Trump was choosing to double down by picking Miller and vowed, “So will we.”

It’s unclear if Democrats and the White House will find a middle ground to successfully pass immigration legislation. With Trump in office for another two years, he can veto any Democratic legislation, and Republicans have the money and the personnel to pursue Trump’s immigration agenda regardless of Tuesday’s results.

Republicans during the summer of 2025 supercharged immigration enforcement with $150 billion intended to expand immigration detention capacity, finish the border wall and hire thousands more deportation officers. Earlier this year they frontloaded routine funding for ICE and Border Patrol for the next three years.

“My fear is that enforcement will get worse. And the country will also see that Congress does not have many tools to stop the executive branch because the executive branch power on immigration has grown so vast,” said Andrea Flores, who was a policy adviser in the Obama and Biden administrations.

Conservatives want action from lame duck Congress

Many administration supporters want this current Congress — in the little time it has left — to pass laws solidifying the gains the Trump administration says it has made on border security and immigration. Without codifying changes to asylum law or tightening requirements on employers to verify workers’ immigration status, they warn, a different administration could quickly reverse the new immigration landscape Trump has shaped.

NumbersUSA, an advocacy group that seeks to restrict immigration, has a timer on its website counting down the days until this Congress is over with a warning to “make border security permanent.”…

Source: After their midterm win and Stephen Miller’s promotion, Democrats gear up for a fight on immigration

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What the data says about Indigenous voting in Alberta’s referendum

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

Of interest. Not surprised on the overall opposition to independence but differences with higher opposition to immigration questions also significant:

Indigenous people in Alberta turned out in massive numbers in last month’s provincial referendum, voted overwhelmingly in favour of remaining a part of Canada and fiercely rejected the other nine questions on immigration and constitutional issues, according to a Globe and Mail analysis.

The Globe looked at 61 polling stations located on First Nations reserves and Métis settlements from the Oct. 19 vote and found that Indigenous voters cast ballots nearly four times more than were cast in the same voting areas in the 2023 Alberta provincial election. Some nations saw a voter increase of 500 per cent to more than 1,200 per cent.

Nearly 95 per cent of Indigenous people voted to remain in Canada, about 20 percentage points higher than for the rest of Alberta.

“[The province] underestimated what the response was going to be from our communities, and it showed at the polls,” said Kainai Nation Chief Travis Plaited Hair.

“They had something to say, and they said it loud and clear that they were not in favour.”

The Globe’s analysis does not take into account Indigenous people who voted at stations off reserves, nor any advance polling or mail-in voting for both 2023 and the referendum.

…On the first half of the referendum questions, regarding immigration, 75 to 85 per cent of Indigenous people voted No compared with 42 to 48 per cent in the rest of the province.

Both Blackfoot chiefs said they believe that their members voted according to strong traditional values, adding that their nations and families extend “beyond the Canada-U.S. border.”

“Anything that has to do with immigration has the ability to affect the treaty rights,” Mr. Crowfoot said.

For question five, on proof of Canadian citizenship being needed to vote in future elections, about 79 per cent of Indigenous voters rejected the idea, versus 42 per cent in the province overall.

Mr. Wildcat said that while the idea wouldn’t necessarily hurt Indigenous people specifically, it would affect marginalized and vulnerable communities.

“Whenever a government puts additional obstacles, and they are obstacles, in the name of secure voting or whatever, it disenfranchises our people,” Mr. Crowfoot said.

Mr. Plaited Hair said not every member “has a passport, and not everyone has a provincial ID or government ID,” adding that many members carry band membership or Indian status cards.

In a statement from the Ministry of Indigenous Relations, the province said the government “will carefully consider how we work to implement the results of the referendum, including proof of citizenship.”…

Source: What the data says about Indigenous voting in Alberta’s referendum

Filed under Aboriginal, Immigration Tagged with ,

John Ivison: A Liberal spending spree, again [immigration]

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

Nails the transparency question even if the government in one sense is being transparent about the one-time numbers. Don’t understand why the government doesn’t simply add a line to the tables that includes the 200,000 (and previous year one-time number) along with a total. Clearer for all and avoids some of the sometimes puerile criticism.

From a policy perspective, there is a legitimate distinction between those already here and those not, and an equally legitimate debate over the numbers being regularized into Permanent Residents:

…After the pandemic, the Trudeau Liberals opened the floodgates to temporary foreign workers. By 2023, there were 971,815 in Canada. The government is cutting the annual target for temporary residents to 370,000 in the period 2027–29.

At the same time, it aims to reduce the number of permanent residents from 471,820 in 2023 to 380,000 annually in the coming years.

The problem is, the way it plans to reduce the temporary resident number is to allow around 200,000 of them to become permanent residents. Given the lower-than-usual education and experience profile of the temporary workers, that means an immigration system that was once the envy of the world will accept fewer than 200,000 of the best and brightest from around the world in 2027. Canada has a fertility rate of 1.26 children per woman, and its population is aging (one in five is now over 65). But nearly half of all voters say there are already too many immigrants coming into Canada.

It would take a brave government to raise immigration levels in the face of such hostility, and this government has just revealed the limits of its courage….

Source: John Ivison: A Liberal spending spree, again

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Some permanent resident applicants left in limbo by changes to Canadian citizenship law

2026/11/06 Leave a comment

To my recollection, this possibility never raised during parliamentary committee hearings by government officials and witnesses:

…CBC News has learned that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada quietly put permanent resident applications on hold for an unknown number of people who could now qualify for citizenship under Bill C-3. The legislation makes those who can prove they have a Canadian ancestor eligible for Canadian citizenship.

That leaves those affected in limbo — without permanent resident status and stuck in a nearly three-year processing backlog of applications for citizenship certificates.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/d6dp9/1/

…Briannah Dale, senior communications adviser for IRCC, said under the department’s policies, you can’t be both a permanent resident and Canadian citizen at the same time.

“If someone applies for proof of citizenship while also applying for permanent residence, their permanent residence application will be placed on hold while a concurrent citizenship application is assessed,” she wrote in an emailed response.

“If citizenship is confirmed, the permanent residence application will be considered withdrawn. If citizenship is not confirmed, the permanent residence application will return to its original place in the processing queue and resume processing.”

Dale said an IRCC officer can also put a permanent residence application on hold even if someone hasn’t applied for a citizenship certificate if the officer has “compelling reasons to believe an applicant may already be a citizen under Canadian law.”

Dale said due to “systems limitations” the department can’t say how many permanent residence applications it has put on hold because the applicant may also qualify for citizenship.

However, she said those who already have permanent resident status won’t lose their status while they wait for their citizenship certificate.

The wait time for those who apply today for family sponsorship of spouses outside Canada (and outside Quebec) like Pottier’s wife is 18 months. But the wait time for citizenship certificate applications is now 34 months, in part because of the surge of applications since the adoption of Bill C-3, particularly from Americans.

Between Dec. 15, 2025, when Bill C-3 went into effect and Aug. 31, IRCC has approved 7,900 applications for Canadian citizenship certificates under the new legislation. Another 22,570 people born abroad to a Canadian parent also received citizenship certificates….

Source: Some permanent resident applicants left in limbo by changes to Canadian citizenship law

Filed under C-3, Citizenship Tagged with

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