Tombe: Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down

Good discussion and analysis of an aging population and the economy:

…The lesson for Canadian policymakers is not that we need not adapt to rapidly changing demographics. It is that slower growth is not a necessary consequence of them.

If we respond to labour scarcity by adopting new technologies, shifting the composition of economic activity, and boosting productivity, we may fully offset the drag of an aging population on growth.

That requires investment. If barriers prevent firms in Canada from investing at the levels they otherwise would, or prevent economic activity from reallocating toward more capital-intensive sectors, then we may well find that aging is a drag on growth after all. But it is not a future we are stuck with.

There is also value in ensuring that policy is not artificially increasing labour scarcity, just in case innovation doesn’t save the day. Some policies encourage people to exit the labour force. Others weaken work incentives by raising taxes to fund ever more generous elderly benefits. Considering reversing these policy choices should be a part of the conversation.

Canada’s population will age. Whether it slows our growth is a separate question, and the answer largely depends on us.

Trevor Tombe is a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, the Director of Fiscal and Economic Policy at The School.

Source: Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down

Court ruling opens door for Canadian immigration delays — and minister’s power — to be challenged

Hard to argue against“transparent and intelligible justification” in any area of government, unfortunately “more honored in the breach than the observance”:

…In a judgment released last week, Federal Court Justice Michael Battista said the minister, despite the legal authority to set priorities, still has the duty to provide “transparent and intelligible justification” for application processing delays.

“What Justice Battista is saying is that implementing ministerial instructions in itself doesn’t make them reasonable and doesn’t justify a delay,” said Ottawa-based immigration lawyer Jacqueline Bonisteel, who is not involved in the case.

“It’s not enough for you to have suddenly pivoted and said, ‘Now this is the processing time.’ They still need to provide a reasonable, intelligible justification for the delay … (this ruling) allows us some fuel to push back on the use of these instructions in all different areas.”…

Source: Court ruling opens door for Canadian immigration delays — and minister’s power — to be challenged

Immigration department pauses applications to sponsor parents, grandparents to settle in Canada

Of note (endemic problem in terms of demand always exceeding allotment):

…In a statement, Taous Ait, a spokesperson for immigration minister Lena Metlege Diab said the measures are “part of broader efforts to restore balance across immigration programs and support timely processing, while maintaining public confidence in Canada’s immigration system.”

She said decisions to open or pause new intakes to the program follow assessments of the number of people in “its inventory and application inventory, each year.”

“IRCC will continue processing up to 15,000 individuals this year who have already applied, in line with our Immigration Levels Plan,” she added. 

The Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP) is a lottery-like pathway to permanent residence for family members who are foreign nationals. Demand to settle here under the program has far outstripped the number of permanent residence spots available under the government’s immigration targets. 

In the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, published in last year’s budget, the government cut its target for new permanent residents under the parents and grandparents program to 15,000 in each of the three years. 

…Calgary immigration lawyer Yameena Ansari said the waits are so long for people wanting to bring their parents and grandparents to Canada some have died during the process. 

She said there is a scramble to apply when windows to do so are opened as they were from July to October in 2025. 

Ms. Ansari said the current system “is kind of like a lottery, but there’s hundreds of thousands of people in the pool.”

“Every two years or so they open the lottery and people have a limited amount of time to submit to the lottery and then they close it. The majority of time it’s closed.”

“I do think there should be a rethink,” she said, adding the government did not seem to want older people to come here from abroad because of the strain on the health care system. …

Source: Immigration department pauses applications to sponsor parents, grandparents to settle in Canada

Colby Cosh: Ontario’s welfare-for-illegal-migrants scheme could be dropped overnight

Valid observation:

…There’s a point in the Social Benefits Tribunal ruling that is easy to overlook. When the appellant originally applied for welfare in 2023, there was a check of immigration records to see if he was subject to deportation or a removal order, which would have disqualified him under the current law. There was no second check at the time of the administrator’s decision in 2025. A second search, we’re told, was not conducted by a caseworker “in order to avoid possibly jeopardizing the appellant’s situation in Canada.”

It is hard to understand this as anything other than a sign that the Ontario welfare apparatus — full of social workers no doubt pledged to the sacred principle that “no one is illegal” — is already unwilling to recognize technical citizenship requirements. In this case, the technical requirements turned out not to exist at all. But what do you suppose will happen if Premier Ford gets on the phone this afternoon and orders that the welfare loophole be closed?

It seems welfare caseworkers have a lot of discretion to avoid “jeopardizing situations,” and perhaps it is not their job at all to enforce the (federal) law of citizenship. But even assuming they are willing to safeguard the public treasury against unscrupulous and potentially infinite exploitation, which is definitely part of their job, there’s still another problem. Any new Fordist regulation written to limit public welfare to persons lawfully present in Canada is bound to face near-immediate Charter scrutiny in front of a real court — and how do we imagine that might go these days?

Source: Colby Cosh: Ontario’s welfare-for-illegal-migrants scheme could be dropped overnight

Trucking companies deemed unsafe permitted to employ temporary foreign workers

Another breakdown in immigration:

Nearly 100 trucking companies with a history of safety infractions, labour violations and other regulatory failures have been granted approval by Ottawa to hire temporary foreign workers since 2019, a Globe and Mail investigation has found.

The compliance issues ranged from flunking safety audits to concerns over forged documents. In some cases, companies were approved by Employment and Social Development Canada to use the migrant labour program despite failing to comply with wage theft orders issued by the same ministry. 

One carrier identified by The Globe’s analysis was decertified by Manitoba authorities over chronic safety issues, yet subsequently granted permission to hire temporary workers on three occasions. 

The Manitoba government accuses the company of setting up a related carrier in Alberta linked to a fatal collision in Brandon, Man., in late May. The incident prompted the province to call for the creation of a national trucking registry to better track bad actors in the sector. …

Source: Trucking companies deemed unsafe permitted to employ temporary foreign workers

The Population Forecasts Are Grim. They’re Still Too Optimistic.

More on demographics:

…There are two major pieces of wishful thinking in the flights of fancy that underpin American population forecasts. The first is immigration. The Census Bureau assumes the United States will have an annual net migration (immigrants minus emigrants) of about one million immigrants through the end of the century. The United Nations and Social Security trustees assume about 1.2 million immigrants a year throughout the 21st century. None of these forecasts are plausible. Net migration under President Trump will most likely turn out to be near zero, and he won’t be the last immigration restrictionist in our nation’s highest office.

Moreover, birthrates are collapsing across the entire planet, not just here at home. The supply of would-be migrants will shrink as more countries run out of young people, and the skilled ones every aging country covets will be fought over. With most countries staring down the same cliff, and with emigration from the United States rising, permanent high net migration is more of an aspiration than a forecast.

But the second act of wishful thinking has an even bigger effect. Many forecasters are assuming that current low fertility rates are temporary, that women are merely delaying having children rather than forgoing it entirely. But this isn’t true: Research shows that delays in childbearing are usually not made up, and, anyway, estimates that take deferred childbearing into account have fallen by just as much as the headline fertility rate.

Up until quite recently, the Social Security trustees’ main scenario assumed that fertility rates will rise from now until 2050, and stabilize at 1.9 children per woman. In 2023, the Census Bureau predicted that fertility rates will only gradually decline from 1.64 to 1.58 by 2075. Spoiler: Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has already shown a 1.57 fertility rate for 2025. The U.N. expects that the U.S. fertility rate will be flat at about 1.65 through the entire 21st century. To its credit, Social Security trustees released new numbers just last month that revised their expectations down to 1.75 in 2050, but that is overly optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office is more realistic, but even it predicts that fertility will decline to 1.53, then stabilize….

 Lyman Stone is the director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies and the director of research for the consulting firm Demographic Intelligence.

Source: The Population Forecasts Are Grim. They’re Still Too Optimistic.

Triandafyllidou: How AI and digital data shape our understanding of migration

Captures some of the challenges well in terms of integrating and understanding what the various data sources and the need to ensure the underlying data is solid. Data is rarely perfect:

…No single dataset offers a complete picture. Administrative records provide legal and demographic precision but often arrive slowly. Surveys reveal motivations and lived experiences but are costly and difficult to conduct during crises. Digital traces offer speed and scale but may overlook important populations and contexts. 

Each source captures different dimensions of migration. Together, they provide a richer understanding than any could alone.

As governments invest in artificial intelligence and data-driven governance, this lesson becomes increasingly important. The availability of real-time big data should not obscure other types of data that complement the picture.

If AI is truly to work for all, as the Canadian AI strategy suggests, we must look beyond algorithms themselves and pay closer attention to the data on which they depend.

The question is not whether we use proxies to understand migration. We always have. The real question is which proxies we use, what they reveal and what they leave unseen.

Source: Triandafyllidou: How AI and digital data shape our understanding of migration

Khan: The Temporary Foreign Worker Program Can’t Be Fixed

There will always be some need for temporary workers, particularly seasonal work and some of the groups under IMP. But the design for lower skilled temporary workers invites abuse and scams:

THE TEMPORARY FOREIGN WORKER PROGRAM has, for a litany of reasons, cemented its place as the poster child for all things wrong with Canada’s immigration system. Corruption? Check. Exploitation? Check. Profiteering? Check. A growing majority of Canadians now blame the program for bringing in too many immigrants and contributing to the housing shortage, a crumbling health care system, and for some on the far right, a perceived crisis of too many Brown people. 

The critiques are mostly political and occasionally racist. But a recent British Columbia Supreme Court decision in a class action suit tells a more sobering story: the TFWP is merely a tool bad actors can weaponize against the vulnerable in a broader immigration system that places a person’s productive value above their human value. 

What makes this case extraordinary is its scale: between 2011 and 2016, a Surrey-based immigration consultant named Kuldeep Bansal ran a glitzy foreign worker recruitment operation out of a luxury hotel in Dubai, disguised as a series of job fairs, that defrauded hundreds, potentially thousands, of vulnerable workers with offers of jobs in Canada that, in many instances, didn’t exist. 

The suit accused Bansal of charging vulnerable workers in Dubai between $2,000 and $8,000 for “services” related to obtaining these “guaranteed” jobs for Mac’s Convenience Stores Inc. (The company, which has been rebranded as Circle K, is owned by Quebec-based Alimentation Couche Tard, which is not named in the ruling.) The hiring representative for Mac’s, a man named Geoff Higuchi, was accused of knowing about the scam but still helping Bansal secure work permits through the TFWP, then breaching contracts with the around 125 workers who actually arrived in Canada and were told the jobs they had applied for were no longer available….

Canada is no stranger to the exploitation of temporary workers. It’s been a feature of the Canadian labour market practically since Confederation, from the contract labour schemes of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and the seedy “labour brokers” they spawned, to the introduction of the TFWP in 1973, the birth shortly thereafter of the immigration consultant industry, the abuse of agricultural and domestic workers that followed, and the expansion of the program during the low-wage labour shortages of the early 2000s and during the pandemic. By 2023, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on contemporary forms of slavery declared the low-wage stream of the TFWP a “breeding ground” of modern enslavement.

Over the decades, successive governments have used a largely economic argument to justify temporary labour: businesses need flexibility in hiring to help them navigate the ups and downs of the labour market. The logic of that argument, experts say, places short-term economic needs above humanitarian obligations. And the results have been predictable: flexibility has turned into dependency, dependency into abuse. 

Today, with Canada facing an uncertain economic future, the demand for temporary foreign workers is on the decline. But when that changes, the machinery of exploitation will lurch back into motion. We will see more businesses lobbying the government for more access to cheap foreign labour and more immigration consultants leveraging that demand to enrich themselves, leaving in their wake a trail of broken lives. 

That cycle will endlessly repeat, as it has for more than a century, until Canadian politicians finally admit what the real problem is: temporariness itself. 

Adnan R. Khan is a freelance writer and editor based in the Netherlands and the author of the Canada in the World newsletter.

Source: The Temporary Foreign Worker Program Can’t Be Fixed

Canada’s multicultural success story is built on class inequalities, not just cultural differences

Well, should Canada give priority to immigrants that are not credentialed, don’t speak English or French, immobile and not networked or not easily understood. Arguing for those not compatible with Canadian institutions?:

…Our interviews suggest something more mundane and more selective is happening underneath the multicultural branding. People who arrive already resemble a Canadian middle-class template. Like most Canadians, the newcomers we interviewed are credentialed, English-speaking, mobile and networked and have an easier time being “legible,” or easily understood and categorized, by many institutions outside of Québec. 

Multiculturalism, therefore, isn’t really about managing radical differences. It’s about smoothing over fairly minor cultural differences, insofar as Canadian immigration and refugee systems filter for people who are already compatible with the Canadian ideal of being and acting middle-class.

Canada’s emergency and resettlement programs, like its immigration system more broadly, don’t admit a random cross-section of Ukrainian or Afghan society. They tend to favour people with education, professional experience, language skills or existing ties to Canada — the very same traits that emerged as the connective tissue in our interviews. 

In other words, the “shared values” newcomers are so often expected to possess may have less to do with adopting Canadian culture after arrival and more to do with already holding a class position and mentality that made them compatible with Canadian institutions in the first place.

Source: Canada’s multicultural success story is built on class inequalities, not just cultural differences

Canada’s universities are recruiting hundreds of international researchers. They’re not just coming from Trump’s America

Reminder that talent can be found in many countries:

As Canada strengthens efforts to recruit academic talent from abroad, U.S.-based scholars make up the largest cohort selected in the first round of a new federal funding program, with the University of Toronto receiving the biggest share of graduate and post-doctoral researchers.

A detailed breakdown obtained by the Star shows that nearly half of the 659 recipients of the inaugural Canada Impact+ Research Training Awards are citizens of the United States, China, Iran and India.

Health research, including biotechnology, is the leading field of study in this first wave of allocations, which are also heavily concentrated among 10 universities that together received nearly 60 per cent of the awards….

Source: Canada’s universities are recruiting hundreds of international researchers. They’re not just coming from Trump’s America