“Due to changes in the prevalence of testing, case counts alone are no longer a reliable indicator of the spread of COVID-19. In part due to this, recovery data is no longer available from all provinces and territories. Some provinces have also shifted to weekly or irregular updates, which impacts the timeliness of data shown below.With some provinces and countries no longer reporting on the number of infections, comparisons between provinces and countries on the omicron variant are imprecise.”
In addition, the data from many of the countries surveyed has remained largely static over the past month, with some revisions downwards. This data has served its purpose in in helping me analyze the effect of COVID on immigration (see my How the government used the pandemic to sharply increase immigration).
One other note, visiting Switzerland, Holland and Germany to visit friends and family, it was striking the differences in COVID restrictions, with Holland the most relaxed (no required masking on planes and transit) and Germany the most strict. Nice to have a sense of normality but disconcerting at the same time (we wore our masks).
Vaccinations: Ongoing minor shifts and convergence among provinces and countries with plateauing of overall vaccination rates. Canadians fully vaccinated 81.8 percent, compared to Japan 80.2 percent, UK 73.2 percent and USA 66.6 percent.
Immigration source countries: China fully vaccinated 88.3 percent, India 61.8 percent, Nigeria 6.5 percent, Pakistan 55 percent, Philippines 61.7 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: As noted, variations in reporting make comparisons difficult. Steep increase in Atlantic Canada may reflect more consistent reporting.
Deaths: No relative changes.
Vaccinations: Minor changes. All provinces have stalled in vaccinations, Saskatchewan reporting gaps account for Prairie fluctuations.
Weekly
Infections: Italy ahead of New York, Australia ahead of California, Atlantic Canada ahead of Canada less Quebec, China ahead of Nigeria.
With some provinces and countries no longer reporting on the number of infections, comparisons between provinces and countries on the omicron variant are imprecise.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries but minimal increases to overall vaccination rates. Canadians fully vaccinated 83 percent, compared to Japan 79.8 percent, UK 74 percent and USA 66.4 percent.
Numbers from China continue to climb. New omicron variant showing up in increased infections in G7 countries and in some provinces (uneven testing hides some of the change).
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries but minimal increases to overall vaccination rates. Canadians fully vaccinated 82.9 percent, compared to Japan 79.7 percent, UK 73.9 percent and USA 66.3 percent.
Immigration source countries: China fully vaccinated 88.8 percent, India 60.6 percent, Nigeria 4.8 percent, Pakistan 47 percent, Philippines 609 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Increased number of infections due to omicron variant in G7 countries with most Canadian provinces having lower rates of increase save for Atlantic Canada.
Deaths: No relative changes.
Vaccinations: China ahead (again) of Atlantic Canada, Japan ahead of Prairies.
Numbers from China continue to climb with infections up 59 percent and deaths up 21 percent. New omicron variant showing up in increased infections in some countries.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 82.7 percent, compared to Japan 79.6 percent, UK 73.8 percent and USA 66.1 percent.
Immigration source countries: China fully vaccinated 88.7 percent, India 60.1 percent, Nigeria 4.5 percent, Pakistan 47 percent, Philippines 60.3 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Limited signs of new omicron variant yet in Canada, with Atlantic Canada infection rates not yet slowing town.
Deaths: No major changes.
Vaccinations: No major relative changes, with Japan ahead of New York and Alberta.
Weekly
Infections: Italy ahead of California.
Deaths: No relative change.
Informative analysis in The Economist:
It is little over a year since the first doses of life-saving vaccines were delivered to Africa under the Covid-19 vaccines Global Access Facility (covax), a scheme aimed at helping poorer countries get inoculated. Yet what should have been a celebration of the region’s fastest-ever vaccine rollout—with 400m doses jabbed into waiting arms—was instead marred by disappointment at how much more could have been achieved.
Listen to this story.
Instead of complaining about not getting vaccines, some countries are now protesting that they are being drowned in a deluge of the stuff and are unable to use it all. Last month Africa cdc appealed to donors to stagger the supply of their shots. “We have not asked them to pause the donations, but to co-ordinate with us so that the new donations arrive in a way so that countries can use them,” said John Nkengasong, the director of Africa cdc.
Increased deliveries are exposing logistical defects in distribution within countries, while weak health-care systems have been unable to jab doses into arms as fast as they get them. Across Africa as a whole just 62% of delivered vaccines have been administered and 29 countries have used less than half of their supplies, says the who. Among the worst laggards are the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has used 15% of its consignments and jabbed less than 2% of its eligible population, and Burundi, which has used less than 2%.
Also hidden in the averages are big gaps in vaccination rates between cities and the countryside. Although continent-wide data are not available, Githinji Gitahi, the chief executive officer of Amref Health Africa, an ngo, says this trend is clear across many countries, including Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania. In Kenya 51% of adults in Nairobi, the capital, had been fully vaccinated by March 16th. But in Mandera county, a poor semi-arid region next to the border with Somalia, only 10% had been fully jabbed.
Part of the reason is logistical. Freezers for storing vaccines are in short supply. But this should be surmountable. Take Uganda. By November just 14% of its eligible population had received their first dose. But in a push supported by donors including the American government, it bumped that rate up to 47% in just six weeks. In Ivory Coast, where many people were nervous about the jab, the government bumped up the vaccination rate from 22% to 36% in the month of December by running radio campaigns to allay people’s fears. These speedy successes suggest that in many places the biggest shortage is not of freezers or nurses, but of zeal on the part of the authorities to go out and get injecting.
Numbers from China continue to climb 608,000 to 753,000 infections and from 6,923 to 8,915 deaths. New omicron variant showing up in increased infections in some countries.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 82.5 percent, compared to Japan 80 percent, UK 74 percent and USA 66 percent.
Immigration source countries: China fully vaccinated 88.3 percent (numbers have not budged over past month, India 60 percent, Nigeria 4.4 percent, Pakistan 47 percent, Philippines 60 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Ongoing signs of omicron and other variants plateauing, with Atlantic Canada being the notable provincial exception.
Deaths: No major changes. Ontario appears to have revised its count, reflected in the chart.
Overall decline in infections and deaths continues. Numbers from China have a further significant increase since last week, from 315,000 to 608,000 infections and from 5,380 to 6,923 deaths.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 82.4 percent, compared to Japan 79.5 percent, UK 73.5 percent and USA 65.9 percent.
Immigration source countries are also converging: China fully vaccinated 88.3 percent (numbers have not budged over past four weeks), India 58.9 percent, Nigeria 4.2 percent, Pakistan 46.6 percent, Philippines 58.4 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Ongoing signs of omicron and other variants plateauing, more so in Canadian provinces than comparator groups.
Deaths: G7 still not plateauing.
Vaccinations: No major relative changes although Japan is now ahead of California.
Weekly
Infections: No relative changes. Infections per million in China have increased from 226 per million to 436 per million.
Deaths: Major change again is with respect to China with deaths per million increasing from 3.9 to 5 per million.
New Zealand changes its tack on surging COVID-19 cases
Back in August, New Zealand’s government put the entire nation on lockdown after a single community case of the coronavirus was detected.
On Tuesday, when new daily cases hit a record of nearly 24,000, officials told hospital workers they could help out on understaffed COVID-19 wards even if they were mildly sick themselves.
It was the latest sign of just how radically New Zealand’s approach to the virus has shifted, moving from elimination to suppression and now to something approaching acceptance as the omicron variant has taken hold.
Experts say New Zealand’s sometimes counterintuitive actions have likely saved thousands of lives by allowing the nation to mostly avoid earlier, more deadly variants and buying time to get people vaccinated. The nation of 5 million has reported just 65 virus deaths since the pandemic began.
But virus hospitalizations have been rapidly rising, hitting a record of more than 750 on Tuesday and putting strain on the system.
Across the country, the explosion in cases has left people stunned. Just a month ago, case numbers were around 200 per day. Now, the outbreak is affecting everyone from frontline workers to lawmakers.
Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon became the highest profile politician yet to announce he was infected on Monday, saying he felt fine and would continue working from home.
One factor that hastened the outbreak was the return of thousands of university students to campuses around the country last month.
Ralph Zambrano, the student president at Victoria University of Wellington, said the virus had spread rapidly through hundreds of students in residence halls, taking a toll on their mental health and well-being.
“The campus would usually be buzzing at this time of year but it has a very eerie feeling to it,” he said, adding that most students were opting to learn remotely. “There’s lots of anxiety and tension.”
He said the outbreak had strained the food supply system in the halls, with some students being offered only a protein drink for breakfast or a piece of cold meat and some peas for dinner.
The university said case numbers in the halls were now reducing as students recovered.
Professor Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago, said the variant had proved as ferociously infectious in New Zealand as it had in other countries.
He said cases appeared to be plateauing or even starting to dip in the largest city of Auckland, while still rising elsewhere.
While much of the world was breathing a sigh of relief after two years of terrible problems, Baker said, New Zealand was at its worst point yet in the pandemic and was coming to terms with the fact the virus would remain in the country permanently.
He said he was concerned health authorities had lost the ability to properly track the outbreak, as they struggled to shift from a system where they carefully monitored a few cases to dealing with thousands of self-reported results from rapid antigen tests.
Dr. Caroline McElnay, the director of public health at the Ministry of Health, told reporters the number of hospitalizations would grow, but that patients with omicron generally had less severe illnesses than previous patients had experienced with the delta variant.
She said the rising number of both patients and infected health workers had prompted the relaxation in the rules around when health workers could return to hospitals.
She said infected workers would only be allowed to work with patients who already had the virus, and if there were no other options.
“It’s an extra tool that enables our health system to keep running,” she said.
Overall decline in infections and deaths as omicron wave passes. The big news is that numbers from China have shown a significant increase in the past week, from 134,000 to 315,000 infections and from 4,936 to 5,380 deaths, perhaps reflecting suppression of numbers pre-and post-Olympics.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 82.2 percent, compared to Japan 79.4 percent, UK 73.3 percent and USA 65.7 percent.
Immigration source countries are also converging: China fully vaccinated 88.3 percent (numbers have not budged over past four weeks), India 57.9 percent, Nigeria 4 percent, Pakistan 45.7 percent, Philippines 58.4 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Ongoing signs of omicron and other variants plateauing.
Deaths: Quebec continues to plateau with moderate increases in other provinces but G7 still not plateauing.
Vaccinations: No major relative changes.
Weekly
Infections: No relative changes. Infections per million in China have increased from 96 to 226 per million after relatively flat for over six months
Deaths: Major change again is with respect to China with deaths per million increasing from 3.5 to 3.9. Sweden is now ahead of Quebec.
COVID-19: New Immigration Rules Crack Open Japan’s Closed Door
In early December 2021, when the highly contagious Omicron variant started spreading globally, Japan slammed its border shut. In fact, except for the first months of the pandemic, it adopted a harsher border policy than during previous infection waves.
The country would essentially remain closed to all non-Japanese citizens other than existing residents.
Among the many stranded travelers were an estimated 150,000 international students who had enrolled in Japanese universities, but never made it into Japan after the borders closed in March 2020. Also affected were business people, foreign specialists and technical interns, the term used for foreign nationals who work on farms, in fishing, food processing, hotels, nursing homes or other industries faced with a serious labor shortage.
Japan’s isolationist approach was in tune with only a few other countries, such as China and Hong Kong. Australia and New Zealand ーwhich previously had some of the strictest border rules, stopping even their own citizens from returning homeー have recently reversed their two year long isolation.
The Japanese government has been a lot more cautious. In the wake of criticism by industry leaders and academics it has now relaxed some of the entry rules. However, its general policy to ban most new entries has not changed. Tourists still remain shut out.
In a first sign of hope, the current limit on arrivals at the Japanese border, capped to 3,500 (roughly the passenger load of 17 airplanes), has been raised to 5,000 from March 1.
Vaccination Status Matters
One of the biggest changes is that starting on March 1, Japan will distinguish between vaccinated and non-vaccinated travelers. This is a significant step for a country that was previously disinterested in vaccination status upon entry and has not adopted any kind of vaccination passport to use domestically.
Fully vaccinated travelers coming from high risk countries can isolate at home for seven days. This period can be shortened to three full days with a negative covid-test on day three.
Fully vaccinated arrivals from low risk countries have no quarantine obligation whatsoever.
Fully Vaccinated Means Three Shots
An arriving person only qualifies as vaccinated with proof of three shots. And the vaccines used need to have been approved by Japan.
Currently, there are only four approved shots: The COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer, Moderna, Astra-Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson. Plus, the only recognized third shots are for Moderna and Pfizer.
…. New Visa Applications
Last not least among the big changes, schools and businesses can now apply for new visas on behalf of business partners, workers and students, if they pledge to monitor that the incoming person will follow any necessary quarantine rules and other measures imposed.
A new website has been set up by the Ministry of Health to facilitate applications, named ERFS or “Entrants, Returnees Follow-up System”. Once the application is approved foreign entrants will get a Certificate of Eligibility (COE), a necessary step to get a visa stamped into the passport at a Japanese embassy or consulate abroad.
Only organizations, not individuals can apply through this website. If you have a COE that has recently expired or is about to do so, a new policy on the period of validity for a certificate of eligibility may be of help as some COE holders may be eligible for an extension.
It is not clear if people who currently have an unexpired COE have to apply.
It also remains to be seen how quickly new visas will be issued and what kind of priorities will be given to whom. After two years of closed borders there is a significant backlog of old cases.
As a cap of daily arrivals remains in place, even though it has now been lifted to 5,000 persons daily, many people will still be in for a long wait.
Overall decline in infections and deaths as omicron wave passes.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 81.9 percent, compared to Japan 79.3 percent, UK 73.2 percent and USA 65.5 percent.
Immigration source countries are also converging: China fully vaccinated 87.9 percent (numbers have not budged over past four weeks), India 55.9 percent, Nigeria 3.8 percent (significant increase from very low base), Pakistan 44.4 percent, Philippines 57.9 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Ongoing signs of omicron and other variants plateauing.
Deaths: Quebec continues to plateau.
Vaccinations: No major change but Alberta and Prairies continue to be laggards compared to other provinces given resistance among residents and political considerations. Jump in Prairies reflects delayed Saskatchewan reporting (weekly, rather than daily, and Globe updates less frequently).
Weekly
Infections: Canadian North and Australia ahead of Alberta, Japan ahead of Philippines and India.
Deaths: No relative change. Of note, Chinese deaths were unchanged from September 22, 2021 until 9 February, 2022, unique among all countries and, frankly, hard to believe (infections were also relatively flat, from 107,789 to 121,629 during the same period).
Overall decline in infections and deaths as omicron wave passes. Note Saskatchewan data is from previous Thursday given the government’s “see no evil” strategy of no longer publishing daily statistics.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but general convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 81.6 percent, compared to Japan 79.2 percent, UK 72.7 percent and USA 64.9 percent.
Immigration source countries are also converging: China fully vaccinated 87.9 percent (numbers have not budged over past three weeks), India 55.6 percent, Nigeria 2.7 percent (the outlier, unchanged), Pakistan 43.2 percent, Philippines 56.7 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Further signs of omicron and other variants plateauing.
Deaths: Quebec plateauing.
Vaccinations: No major change but Alberta and Prairies continue to be laggards compared to other provinces given resistance among residents and political considerations.
It will be interesting to see the effects of the decisions by Alberta and Saskatchewan to relax or end restrictions over the next few weeks will in terms of infections, deaths and hospitalizations. Probably not as disastrous as “best summer ever” but likely not with consequences.
Vaccinations: Some minor shifts but general convergence among provinces and countries. Canadians fully vaccinated 81 percent, compared to Japan 79.1 percent, UK 72.7 percent and USA 64.9 percent.
Immigration source countries are also converging: China fully vaccinated 87.9 percent (numbers have not budged over past two weeks), India 53.9 percent, Nigeria 2.7 percent (the outlier, unchanged), Pakistan 40.6 percent, Philippines 55.6 percent.
Trendline Charts:
Infections: Signs of omicron and other variants plateauing.
Deaths: Quebec uptick appears to be plateauing.
Vaccinations: No major change but Alberta and Prairies continue to be laggards compared to other provinces. Ironic given they are among the first to relax and end restrictions.
Weekly
Infections: Sweden ahead of California, Australia ahead of Quebec, Canadian North ahead of Prairies.
Multicultural Meanderings 