What the data says about Indigenous voting in Alberta’s referendum

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

Of interest. Not surprised on the overall opposition to independence but differences with higher opposition to immigration questions also significant:

Indigenous people in Alberta turned out in massive numbers in last month’s provincial referendum, voted overwhelmingly in favour of remaining a part of Canada and fiercely rejected the other nine questions on immigration and constitutional issues, according to a Globe and Mail analysis.

The Globe looked at 61 polling stations located on First Nations reserves and Métis settlements from the Oct. 19 vote and found that Indigenous voters cast ballots nearly four times more than were cast in the same voting areas in the 2023 Alberta provincial election. Some nations saw a voter increase of 500 per cent to more than 1,200 per cent.

Nearly 95 per cent of Indigenous people voted to remain in Canada, about 20 percentage points higher than for the rest of Alberta.

“[The province] underestimated what the response was going to be from our communities, and it showed at the polls,” said Kainai Nation Chief Travis Plaited Hair.

“They had something to say, and they said it loud and clear that they were not in favour.”

The Globe’s analysis does not take into account Indigenous people who voted at stations off reserves, nor any advance polling or mail-in voting for both 2023 and the referendum.

…On the first half of the referendum questions, regarding immigration, 75 to 85 per cent of Indigenous people voted No compared with 42 to 48 per cent in the rest of the province.

Both Blackfoot chiefs said they believe that their members voted according to strong traditional values, adding that their nations and families extend “beyond the Canada-U.S. border.”

“Anything that has to do with immigration has the ability to affect the treaty rights,” Mr. Crowfoot said.

For question five, on proof of Canadian citizenship being needed to vote in future elections, about 79 per cent of Indigenous voters rejected the idea, versus 42 per cent in the province overall.

Mr. Wildcat said that while the idea wouldn’t necessarily hurt Indigenous people specifically, it would affect marginalized and vulnerable communities.

“Whenever a government puts additional obstacles, and they are obstacles, in the name of secure voting or whatever, it disenfranchises our people,” Mr. Crowfoot said.

Mr. Plaited Hair said not every member “has a passport, and not everyone has a provincial ID or government ID,” adding that many members carry band membership or Indian status cards.

In a statement from the Ministry of Indigenous Relations, the province said the government “will carefully consider how we work to implement the results of the referendum, including proof of citizenship.”…

Source: What the data says about Indigenous voting in Alberta’s referendum

Filed under Aboriginal, Immigration Tagged with ,

Rob Breakenridge: Danielle Smith bans DEI hiring, daring the NDP to oppose

2026/10/30 2 Comments

Virtue signalling as much as substance:

In the current political climate, it’s not likely a coincidence that the Alberta government is prioritizing the fight against woke, progressive politics — specifically, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies.

As we’ve observed through previous policy initiatives, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is no fan of DEI ideology. Tuesday’s announcement that the government has tabled Bill 33, the justice statutes amendment act, is the latest — and most significant — step to rid the public sector and other government agencies of woke policies.

Among other things, it mandates merit-based hiring within the public sector and other regulated provincial bodies — including post-secondary institutions, municipalities and, potentially, organizations that receive government funding.

The Alberta Human Rights Act will be amended to remove Section 10.1, which currently allows for hiring practices aimed at “the amelioration of the conditions of disadvantaged persons or classes of disadvantaged persons.”

Instead, hiring and promotion decisions will be based on merit and job requirements, with certain, limited exceptions — basically a situation where a specific characteristic is deemed to be a bona fide occupational requirement….

The United Conservatives are more than happy to engage on this political turf, and they’re almost daring the NDP to oppose this bill and to publicly align themselves with DEI policies. It remains to be seen whether the Opposition will take the bait, but it could put New Democrats on the defensive if their aim is to restore such hiring policies and mandates.

Again, the government would seem to have public opinion on its side, and the pendulum is already swinging away from the more aggressive implementation of these policies in recent years.

In fact, that backlash may be so pronounced that the push-back against Bill 33 could turn out to be relatively muted. That would mean a smoother implementation of what the government sees as better policy, but it would also defuse the potency of this issue as a culture war rallying cry for Smith and the UCP.

Source: Rob Breakenridge: Danielle Smith bans DEI hiring, daring the NDP to oppose

Filed under DEI, Multiculturalism Tagged with ,

Why results of Alberta’s immigration referendum might not mean what voters think

2026/10/22 Leave a comment

Reasonable assessments. And Sharma correct on tendencious nature of question wording:

…Is this a victory or a defeat for immigrants?

These margins were lower than what had been projected in earlier public polls, especially given Premier Danielle Smith’s campaign to rally for the mandate for change, said Avnish Nanda, a co-founder of Our Alberta Advantage. The group opposes the Alberta government’s immigration-related referendum questions and policies.

Albertans have voted to remain part of Canada in the province’s first-ever referendum on separation. Wondering what the result says about the other nine questions? Curious how the separatist movement will continue? Want to know what it means for the provincial government’s relationship with the rest of the country?

“She sent every Albertan home like a large pamphlet that contained (what) I think were false statements but made the case about why they should vote yes,” said Nanda, who is also an immigration lawyer in Edmonton.

“She won by (a handful of points) on these questions. She should be winning by 25, 30 points. She barely won this. A large portion of Albertans rejected it.”

Raj Sharma, a Calgary-based immigration lawyer, also sees the result as a “victory” because he said the way the immigration questions were structured and written would lead many respondents to say yes.

“These were slam-dunk-level questions,” he said. “They didn’t get that. It gives me great joy, great optimism that Alberta has been very decisive. At the end of the day, it looks like Albertans are quite reasonable, committed to the Canadian fabric, committed to working with their neighbours, whether newcomers or old, to a future together.”

Can Alberta actually curtail its immigration?

The referendum asked for more control over immigration but Sharma said the question was “disingenuous,” because immigration is exclusively within the jurisdiction of the federal government. Not too long ago, the premier was asking to double the targets of Alberta’s provincial immigration nomination program and was warm to the idea of increased pathways for Ukrainians, he added.

While Smith may hope to wrest as much control over how many people, and who, are let into Alberta as Quebec does in setting its intakes, Sharma said the conditions and circumstances are so different between the two provinces.

“I’ll call it a febrile fever dream that Alberta can get the same position within the constitutional framework as Quebec,” he said. “If you want sovereignty, you need to define and have a culture … oil and gas is not enough for a culture. The starting point for sovereignty would be to define the culture. Alberta is not the same as Quebec. We don’t have this separate language.”

Source: Why results of Alberta’s immigration referendum might not mean what voters think

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Alberta’s shameless attempt to scapegoat immigrants

2026/09/21 Leave a comment

Yes, notable change:

…Though never free from the systemic impacts of racism and xenophobia – not to mention the continuing colonial dispossession of First Nations – Alberta has for decades welcomed newcomers, and celebrated them as an engine of economic growth.

Just a few years ago, the UCP was actively courting migrants, while Ms. Smith mused about an Alberta inhabited by 10 million souls. 

Only recently did the party embrace the type of anti-immigrant rhetoric that paints newcomers as a burden. In February, Ms. Smith stated, without evidence, that immigration has “flooded our classrooms, emergency rooms and social support systems.”

This argument falls apart under scrutiny. Immigrants, including temporary residents, pay taxes. If classrooms and hospitals are overflowing, it’s because the UCP has failed to adequately invest in them.

Scapegoating immigrants is a common tactic in Western democracies. But in Alberta, this plays directly into the hands of the separatist movement – a movement that is not only staunchly anti-immigrant, but a hotbed of xenophobia and racist conspiracy theories.

Voting yes to the immigration questions will normalize the type of reactionary politics typically associated with MAGA and far-right movements in Europe….

Richie Assaly is a freelance writer and former Toronto Star culture reporter. He writes about politics, music and books. 

Source: Alberta’s shameless attempt to scapegoat immigrants

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Anglin: What’s driving Alberta separatism? Don’t overlook immigration

2026/06/12 Leave a comment

While there is merit to some of his arguments with respect to “generation squeeze,” Anglin neglects to mention provincial complicity, save for Quebec, in supporting high levels of immigration. After all, prior to launching the immigration-related referendums, Alberta supported higher numbers of Provincial Nominee Program and did not oppose higher numbers of international students or temporary workers, reflecting the same pressures by interest groups across the country.

As to his “Canada is broken para,” suspect it is more on the basic economic impacts more than the “wokification” as the polling he cites indicate:

…What is the source of this desperation? The sheer quantity and poor quality of the Liberal migration boom is not the only reason for job scarcity and soaring housing prices, but it’s a big one. Young voters also connect the resulting complexity in Canadian society to the takeover of their schools, government programs, and private HR departments by DEI programs that pigeon-hole them as avatars of their race, and what appears to be an official decision not to enforce the law against jarring cultural practices and open hate in our streets.

When young Albertans look at the national institutions that are meant to bind us together, they see the progressive “wokification” of the Canadian Armed Forces, a politicised, scandal-plagued, and mostly incompetent RCMP, and two-tier justice and immigration-based sentencing from the courts. Add to this a broken public health-care system, a sclerotic national economy sustained by a migration Ponzi scheme, and the denigration of Canadian history, symbols, and traditions…

Source: What’s driving Alberta separatism? Don’t overlook immigration

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Globe editorial: How to punch a hole in the sails of Alberta separatists [immigration]

2026/06/09 Leave a comment

Some suggestions:

…The same is true for immigration. Negotiating a deal like Quebec’s, under which the province largely has control over who can settle there, would be a complicated and lengthy process. But Mr. Carney could quickly agree to other fixes while working toward longer term symmetry between Quebec and Alberta.

Those fixes could include increasing the provinces’ allocation under the provincial nominee program and letting them have a greater say over what kind of workers they need. Ottawa could also agree to provide the provinces with funding to house and care for temporary workers – a beef that isn’t limited to Alberta….

Source: How to punch a hole in the sails of Alberta separatists

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Globe editorial: Looking beneath the myths of Alberta separatism [citizenship]

2026/05/12 Leave a comment

Yes, the citizenship and passport issue, and the assumption that dual citizenship would be automatic, becomes less likely in the case of separation:

…The Canadian passport is ranked as one of the most desirable in the world, allowing unfettered access to more than 180 countries. It’s understandable that Albertans voting for independence might want to keep such a valuable document. And under a recent Canadian law granting citizenship to descendants – even great-grandchildren – of Canadians, they would appear to be able to do so.

However, that presupposes the law is not changed. There’s no reason to believe it won’t be.

For starters, political entities rarely split up amicably. Alberta leaving Canada is more likely to be a rancourous process that produces unhappy people on both sides. The idea that the federal government would then allow millions of people from what is – let’s remember – another country retain their privileges as Canadians is nonsensical. 

Several 20th-century examples are worth noting here. 

When East Bengal split from Pakistan in 1971, Islamabad passed a law to strip residents of the newly independent state of their Pakistani citizenship. And when Panama seceded from Colombia in 1903, residents of the new country became dual citizens only if they had specific ties to the old country. Most became, simply, Panamanians.

Separatists claim that, under current law, it would be possible for seceding Albertans to remain Canadians as well. Perhaps.

But the law would inevitably be changed, as history demonstrates….

Source: Looking beneath the myths of Alberta separatism

Filed under Citizenship, Dual Citizenship Tagged with , ,

Jedwab: Indépendance du Québec et de l’Alberta: La double citoyenneté est loin d’être garantie

2026/05/01 Leave a comment

True. Experience of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic is illustrative, residents became citizens or either based upon residency. Over time, Czech Republic’s allowed dual citizenship, Slovak not:

…Cela impliquerait des choix difficiles. Qui conserverait le droit de vote ? Quels droits seraient maintenus ou limités ? Comment définir l’appartenance politique dans un contexte de séparation ? Quelles seront les obligations qui vont émerger ?

Autant de questions qui ne trouveront de réponse qu’à travers des négociations complexes – et très probablement conflictuelles.

L’opinion publique illustre déjà l’ampleur du défi. Selon un sondage Léger réalisé en janvier 2026 pour l’Association d’études canadiennes, une majorité de Canadiens hors Québec s’oppose à ce que les Québécois conservent la citoyenneté canadienne après une éventuelle indépendance. Au Québec, c’est l’inverse : une majorité souhaite la préserver.

Deux visions difficilement conciliables.

Dans ce contexte, présenter la double citoyenneté comme un acquis relève davantage de la stratégie politique que de la réalité juridique. La prudence des indépendantistes albertains – qui parlent de possibilité – reconnaît implicitement cette incertitude.

Car rien ne garantit que le Canada accepterait qu’une large population étrangère conserve durablement des droits politiques complets. Une telle situation soulèverait des enjeux évidents de souveraineté, de représentation et de légitimité démocratique.

Il faut aussi reconnaître une réalité souvent sous-estimée : la citoyenneté canadienne demeure extrêmement populaire.

Deux Canadiens sur trois préfèrent être citoyens du Canada que de tout autre pays. Les Québécois (71 %) figurent parmi ceux qui expriment le plus fortement cet attachement, les Albertains étant un peu moins enthousiastes (61 %).

Même là où l’on parle d’indépendance, pour la majorité, le lien à la citoyenneté canadienne reste profond.

C’est précisément ce qui explique l’émergence de cette idée d’une indépendance sans véritable rupture. On propose de quitter le Canada… tout en conservant ce qu’il offre de plus précieux.

Au Québec et en Alberta, la souveraineté ne sera pas un exercice symbolique. Elle implique la création d’un État distinct, avec ses propres règles, ses propres institutions et son propre ordre politique et juridique.

La double citoyenneté, dans ce contexte, est loin d’être garantie. C’est plutôt une hypothèse qui dépendra de négociations, de rapports de force – et d’un Canada qui, inévitablement, devra redéfinir les conditions mêmes de sa citoyenneté.

Source: Indépendance du Québec et de l’Alberta: La double citoyenneté est loin d’être garantie

… This would involve difficult choices. Who would keep the right to vote? What rights would be maintained or limited? How to define political belonging in a context of separation? What obligations will emerge?

So many questions that will only be answered through complex negotiations – and most likely conflictual.

Public opinion is already illustrating the scale of the challenge. According to a Léger survey conducted in January 2026 for the Canadian Studies Association, a majority of Canadians outside Quebec are opposed to Quebecers retaining Canadian citizenship after possible independence. In Quebec, it is the opposite: a majority wants to preserve it.

Two visions that are difficult to reconcile.

In this context, presenting dual citizenship as a given is more of a political strategy than a legal reality. The prudence of Alberta’s independence supporters – who speak of possibility – implicitly recognizes this uncertainty.

Because there is no guarantee that Canada would accept that a large foreign population retains full political rights in the long term. Such a situation would raise obvious issues of sovereignty, representation and democratic legitimacy.

We must also recognize a reality that is often underestimated: Canadian citizenship remains extremely popular.

Two out of three Canadians would rather be citizens of Canada than any other country. Quebecers (71%) are among those who most strongly express this attachment, Albertans being a little less enthusiastic (61%).

Even where we talk about independence, for the majority, the link to Canadian citizenship remains deep.

This is precisely what explains the emergence of this idea of independence without real rupture. We propose to leave Canada… while keeping what it offers most valuable.

In Quebec and Alberta, sovereignty will not be a symbolic exercise. It involves the creation of a separate state, with its own rules, its own institutions and its own political and legal order.

Dual citizenship, in this context, is far from guaranteed. Rather, it is a hypothesis that will depend on negotiations, a balance of power – and a Canada that will inevitably have to redefine the very conditions of its citizenship.

Filed under Citizenship, Dual Citizenship Tagged with , , ,

John Lorinc: This is the real crisis of Canadian immigration

2026/02/24 Leave a comment

Valid concern although I think Alberta is more open to immigration than Premier Smith calculates:

…Just think about Alberta premier Danielle Smith’s address to the province last week, in which she mentioned immigration no fewer than 17 times, disparaging the “status quo” system, and claiming that current (and significantly reduced) immigration levels are “out of control” and “overwhelming our core social services.” Those are the words of someone making hay.

It is worth noting that Trump hasn’t yet targeted Canadian immigration and diversity policies in his obsessive campaign to subsume America’s closest ally in the name of hemispheric hegemony. Yet. But even a cursory scan of the cultural horizon — Bad Bunny’s Spanish lyrics, Trump’s determination to edit out Black Americans’ experiences in the name of national pride — would indicate we are as just likely to become targets of his white supremacy as Europe.

Culture warriors don’t care about policy or data, and if the Carney government doesn’t get that basic fact, it will lose the existential fight to rebuild public confidence in our migration system, whether or not we continue to tell ourselves that diversity is our strength.    

Source: Opinion | John Lorinc: This is the real crisis of Canadian immigration

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Alberta to hold wide-ranging referendum in October, Danielle Smith says [immigration]

2026/02/23 Leave a comment

As many have pointed out, the Alberta government and Premier never questioned the increases under the Trudeau government and generally advocated for higher numbers particularly for the Provincial Nominee Program. Appears more a deflection technique and perhaps part of a flood the zone to reduce attention to the ill-advised referendum on Alberta separation. May be popular with the UCP base but Alberta has been one of the more welcoming provinces for immigrants:

…Ms. Smith, on Thursday evening, described her immigration proposals as “a significant departure from the status quo” requiring consent from a majority of Albertans.

It’s not yet clear whether the immigration referendum questions would be binding.

The sweeping proposals would dramatically alter how, and if, services are delivered to certain immigrants in Alberta. One question asks if voters support mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and those with an “Alberta approved immigration status” should be eligible for provincially funded programs, including health and education. 

Another asks if residents support charging “a reasonable fee or premium” for health care and education to people with non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta.

“The fact is, Alberta taxpayers can no longer be asked to continue to subsidize the entire country through equalization and federal transfers, permit the federal government to flood our borders with new arrivals, and then give free access to our most-generous-in-the-country social programs to anyone who moves here,” Ms. Smith said. 

The proposals mark a significant shift in thinking for the Premier who, as recently as two years ago, said her government was preparing to more than double Alberta’s population to 10 million by 2050.

Droves of people have moved to Alberta over the past five years, from inside and outside Canada. 

Alberta’s population hit five million in 2025, up 14 per cent compared with the province’s headcount of 4.4 million in 2020, according to data compiled by the Alberta government, based on federal statistics.

Net migration climbed sharply between early 2021, when it was essentially flat, to peak at around 58,649 in the third quarter of 2023. Since then, Alberta’s net migration has been on a slide. The province absorbed 37,625 migrants in the first three quarters of 2025, down 73 per cent compared with the 140,490 people who came to Alberta in the same timeframe in 2024. 

Just 197 international migrants landed in the province in the third quarter of 2025, a drop of 99 per cent compared with 32,046 in the same quarter in 2024. 

The significant growth was partly abetted by the province’s highly successful Alberta is Calling advertising campaign, which used billboards and transit ads across Canada, tax credits and promises of a lower cost of living in an effort to entice people to move there.

The Premier described the potential program cuts to immigrants as her “short-term plan” as the province works to grow its Heritage Savings Trust Fund to $250-billion by 2050, with the goal of limiting Alberta’s reliance on resource revenues.

Ms. Smith justified the proposed immigration changes as a way to deal with Alberta’s grim economic picture without drastic cuts to social services for all citizens. In November’s fiscal update, Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner projected a $6.4-billion deficit….

Source: Alberta to hold wide-ranging referendum in October, Danielle Smith says

Snyder: How Alberta fell out of love with mass immigration

No serious explanation how it did so but useful list of just how large and multi-faceted reversal:

A few short years ago, before she had proposed a new set of referendum questions on Thursday aimed at curbing rapid population growth, Premier Danielle Smith was actively courting newcomers to the province. Indeed, with the private sector facing a shortage of skilled workers, the premier could hardly bring in enough people to satisfy her appetite.

Smith’s latest referendum push, then, seems like a dramatic shift in policy. Instead, the premier told reporters on Friday, her change in tone is the result of a stark mismatch between Alberta’s efforts to recruit skilled workers and changes to Canada’s immigration system made under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

“We were doing a very targeted ask to get skilled workers here,” Smith said on Friday. “But as I said, we had no idea that Justin Trudeau was taking all limits off all those (immigration) programs, because they didn’t ask us, they didn’t tell us. They just did it.”…

Source: “How Alberta fell out of love with mass immigration”

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

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