Carney government’s immigration overhaul risks pushing Canadian wages down

2026/10/29 Leave a comment

Commentary on proposal of interest:

…Fortin said he does not yet know what dropping the LMIA will mean “on wages and job prospects for Canadian workers, but I am not optimistic.”

“After all, business is about maximizing profits, and maximizing profits requires minimizing labour costs,” he said.

That same incentive could go beyond holding down wages. Without the LMIA’s requirement to first look for Canadian workers, employers able to bring in cheaper hires from abroad could also choose to replace existing Canadian staff to reduce payroll costs.

Fortin also pointed to recent economics studies that have found the rapid pace of immigration to Canada in the past decade hurt Canada’s stagnant per capita GDP and the relative wealth of many Canadians. “There is compelling evidence that the Trudeau migratory explosion of 2016–2024 has affected Canadian productivity and income inequality among Canadians negatively,” citing various recent economics studies.

He blamed two forces. Investment went to housing and equipping newcomers rather than raising productivity. And Statistics Canada researchers found nearly half of employed temporary workers are in low-skilled, low-paid sectors such as agriculture, accommodation, and retail.

Fortin credits Diab for moving away from “this huge concentration of admissions of cheap labour in low-qualified occupations,” calling it “a step in the right direction.” But overall volumes must also come down, Fortin argues. He also warned that tying points to occupational codes rather than strictly earnings will add red tape….

Parisa Mahboubi, a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute, told The Hub that economics research has generally found little harm to Canadian earnings from high-skilled immigration of the past. Where wage pressure or displacement occurs, it is more often concentrated among “lower-skilled or lower-paid workers who compete more directly with newcomers in specific occupations.”

“[But] a high-wage occupation does not guarantee that a candidate will earn a high wage in Canada,” she said.

She also flagged fraud as a major concern. “A substantial points advantage for job offers can create incentives for fraudulent or non-genuine offers,” Mahboubi said, noting Ottawa scrapped job-offer points in 2025 amid concerns about the buying and selling of LMIAs. She added that Ottawa lacks the data to tell whether current LMIA-exempt foreign workers are “complementing Canadian workers or putting pressure on wages and job prospects.”

However, Mahboubi, through her research, believes Canada inviting more highly educated immigrants in the past to live and work here has almost always been a net gain for Canadians….

Source: Carney government’s immigration overhaul risks pushing Canadian wages down

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C.D. Howe: A Matter of Degrees: Understanding Immigrant Skills and Labour-Market Outcomes

2026/10/28 Leave a comment

Reasonable recommendations:

…The report, supported by the Future Skills Centre through the Government of Canada’s Future Skills program, identifies three areas for improving immigration’s economic outcomes and making better use of immigrant talent:

First, the Express Entry program could raise its minimum language threshold and place greater emphasis on advanced proficiency in Canada’s official languages, with ongoing evaluation of longer-term outcomes.

Second, faster, more consistent credential recognition and better employer recognition of foreign qualifications could help address persistent earnings and occupational gaps.

Third, employment-focused language training after arrival should be rigorously evaluated to ensure programs effectively support immigrants’ labour-market integration.

“Immigration is central to Canada’s workforce and economic growth, but attracting educated newcomers is only part of the equation,” says Mahboubi. “Helping immigrants put their skills and qualifications to work is an important opportunity to strengthen productivity and improve economic outcomes for newcomers and Canada alike.”

Read the Full Report

Source: A Matter of Degrees: Understanding Immigrant Skills and Labour-Market Outcomes

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Carney government says Canada’s immigration is under control. But those in the know highlight what’s going wrong

2026/10/22 Leave a comment

Some good reads just prior to the levels plan release:

…While Diab has reined in immigration numbers, whether the immigration system is under control is another question altogether.

“A smaller immigration target is not the same thing as a smaller immigration problem,” said Mario Bellissimo, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer and policy analyst.

Depending on who you ask, Canada’s immigration system is either more controlled, stable and sustainable than it has been in years — or still very much a work in progress, plagued by persistent backlogs, constantly changing rules and a critical lack of data on the hundreds of thousands of temporary residents already here.

The question now is whether Ottawa can fix the deeper structural problems before Carney opens the tap again.

Nagging backlogs and long processing

“Reducing numbers is comparatively straightforward,” said Bellissimo. “Building a predictable system that matches intake to capacity, deals fairly with people already here, targets genuine economic needs, reunites families, meets humanitarian obligations, uses technology responsibly, enforces the law and provides timely decisions is much harder.”

6 charts showing Canada’s dramatic immigration changes and economic trends, from Trudeau to Carney

Ottawa has struggled to reduce immigration backlogs and address growing processing times despite huge investments in AI and advanced analytics to modernize the system. The Immigration Department’s website shows that there were more than one million pending permanent residence applications in the queue as of the end of July 2026….

Source: Carney government says Canada’s immigration is under control. But those in the know highlight what’s going wrong

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Canada is about to announce its new immigration targets. Here’s what we know and don’t know

2026/10/20 Leave a comment

We will know soon enough to see the trade-offs:

…Since becoming prime minister, Carney has pledged to reduce the share of temporary workers and international students to five per cent of the population by the end of 2027 while maintaining permanent resident admission to under one per cent of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027.

Currently, the share of temporary resident population still stands at 6.7 per cent of the country’s nearly 42 million population. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s hands are tied in shifting more temporary residents to permanent status if it sticks to Carney’s one per cent commitment, meaning the upper target for permanent residents can’t go over 418,000.

Little leeway to raise immigration

There is little wiggle room unless Ottawa finds an innovative way to account for the numbers. It has before. Last year, it rolled out two one-time initiatives to grant permanent residence to 115,000 people with protection status and 33,000 foreign workers in small communities over two years, but the groups were counted on top of the 2026 permanent resident target.

“They’re going to be holding at least relatively close to their 380,000 projection,” said Calgary-based immigration lawyer Mark Holthe. “That five per cent temporary resident target is what’s driving a large portion of this plan. They made a campaign promise and they are going to hit it no matter what.”

Last month, the C.D. Howe Institute, a Toronto-based think tank, recommended an annual admission of 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, and further reductions to 350,000 in 2028, and 340,000 in 2029. It said the five per cent target for temporary residents should be treated as a ceiling and come down to three per cent in the medium and long term.

Managing temporary resident population is not straightforward. Officials can cap new study and work permits to control intakes and transition temporary residents to permanent status, but it takes resources to track and remove people with expired permits.

“The government hasn’t been able to reduce this (population) significantly,” said Parisa Mahboubi, an economist who chairs C.D. Howe’s immigration targets council. “We are going to see a large share of transitions from TR to PR … The government has greater control over that.”

Larissa Bezo, president and CEO of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, doubts that Ottawa will need to raise international student intakes since it didn’t even manage to fill the quotas it set.

“The challenge really has shifted from perhaps managing growth to a period of where we are now having to rebuild confidence,” she noted.

“The larger issue from my perspective is what happens several years from now. Fewer students arriving today means fewer graduates, fewer researchers, fewer health-care workers, fewer engineers, fewer entrepreneurs and fewer permanent residents in the future.”

Priorities and fine-tuning programs

Diab has been clear about her plan to bring in even more French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec, raising this demographic’s share of the total annual admissions from nine per cent in 2026 to 9.5 per cent in 2027, 10.5 per cent in 2028 and 12 per cent in 2029.

She has also hinted at maintaining the share of permanent residents in economic class at around 64 per cent in 2027 and 2028, while working with provinces and prioritizing talent in key sectors and industries like health care, emerging technologies and skilled trades.

Earlier this year, the Immigration Department held consultations on proposed reforms to the skilled immigration programs as well as the way points are awarded to candidates for their education, work experience and language skills among other factors. It has also asked for public input in setting economic priorities and selection categories for its targeted talent draws.

Stein Monteiro of Signal49 Research said he does not expect drastic changes to immigration policy direction, rather, more fine-tuning of current programs to better align the system with economic needs.

“There’s a lot of other things they’re trying to do aside from the levels,” said Monteiro, lead immigration researcher at the independent research organization, formerly known as The Conference Board of Canada.

“They’re trying to maintain stability by streamlining programs, cutting unnecessary niche programs and then improving on the application process … (which) makes it more predictable for what’s coming out on the other end of the immigration system.”

Targeting high-skilled, high-wage immigrants

C.D. Howe’s Mahboubi said immigration is more than just a numbers game; the type of migrants Canada brings in matters. The system should focus on welcoming high-skilled, high-wage immigrants over low-skilled, non-agricultural temporary foreign workers, she noted.

“We want high-quality students and higher-skilled workers to support our economy,” she said. “There are still more reforms and more oversight needed. We are not there yet.”

Over the past year, Ottawa has stopped accepting applications for immigration programs for start-up entrepreneurs, home care workers, privately sponsored refugees for resettlement (Group of Five), and skilled refugees and displaced people. Few expect they will reopen next year.

“Their focus is on high-wage individuals, so any new program that they’re looking at creating or rolling out are going to target those individuals,” said Holthe, the Calgary lawyer. “Our professionals and executives and people making over $100,000 have no pathways to permanent residence. That’s part of the reason why they’re making changes.”…

Source: Canada is about to announce its new immigration targets. Here’s what we know and don’t know

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Mahboubi: Why have a target for cutting temporary immigration if Canada can’t meet it?

2025/07/07 Leave a comment

Hard not to agree:

…But any reductions should not come at any cost. Asylum reform must ensure that the system serves those in genuine need of protection, rather than as an alternative pathway to permanent residency or prolonged stay. 

Likewise, while the student permit cap has curbed numbers, it has hurt the entire postsecondary sector. A larger cap is not the answer; what’s needed is a shift in focus toward attracting high-quality applicants and supporting sectors that benefit most from temporary residents. The goal should not be just about quantity, but also about the quality of entrants and their alignment with long-term national objectives.

What’s needed now is a more credible and co-ordinated approach – one that combines realistic targets, reliable data systems, effective enforcement and reforms to the asylum system in a way that balances efficiency with fairness. It also means being honest about what can reasonably be achieved in the short-term, and recognizing that Canada’s growing reliance on temporary residents is not just a numbers problem, but a structural one.

Until then, pressures associated with Canada’s large temporary population will continue to build, and the 5-per-cent target will remain more aspirational than achievable.

Source: Why have a target for cutting temporary immigration if Canada can’t meet it?

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Mahboubi: Canada is wasting the talents of its skilled immigrants

2025/02/01 Leave a comment

Concrete and specific recommendations, some harder to implement than others (e.g., Foreign Credential Recognition, which also should include domestic credential recognition):

…To fully harness immigrant talent, Canada must act. The Express Entry system should place greater emphasis on language ability and incorporate educational criteria that consider the reputations of institutions, fields of study and academic grades – elements often overlooked but crucial for predicting successful labour-market integration. Pre-immigration earnings of immigrants with prior Canadian work experience should also be considered, as they serve as a strong predictor of immigrants’ economic value and their ability to integrate into the work force without facing overqualification.

Streamlining the recognition of foreign credentials and offering clearer guidance on licensing are equally important. Provincial governments need to collaborate with regulatory bodies to simplify and accelerate the recognition process for foreign qualifications. British Columbia and Nova Scotia recently expedited their approvals for health care professionals, showing the potential of such collaboration. At the same time, regulatory bodies should revisit and modernize their licensing processes to reduce red tape and ensure that the requirements are not excessively burdensome.

Immigrants need better support navigating complex recertification processes. Provincial regulatory bodies can partner with professional associations to develop clear licensing roadmaps for regulated professions so that skilled immigrants can better understand their options. Governments also need to expand access to culturally relevant language training and rigorously evaluate settlement programs to scale up what works.

Employers also need to step up. Today, only 15 per cent of employers in Toronto work with immigrant-serving agencies, missing out on a wealth of untapped talent. Promoting job-matching programs, raising awareness of credential-assessment services and connecting with immigrant-serving organizations can bridge gaps. Governments can facilitate this by developing comprehensive databases of credential equivalencies.

Canada’s highly-educated immigrants represent a vast, underutilized resource. Addressing systemic barriers is not just about fairness – it’s about ensuring the country’s long-term prosperity. With bold action and collaboration, Canada can transform this missed opportunity into a major economic advantage.

Source: Canada is wasting the talents of its skilled immigrants

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Canada Wasting the Talents of Skilled Immigrants

2024/12/18 1 Comment

Of note:

Canada’s ambitious efforts to attract highly skilled immigrants are undermined by a widespread mismatch between immigrants’ qualifications and job opportunities, according to a new study from the C.D. Howe Institute. The report highlights key factors, such as language proficiency and education quality, as well as systemic barriers like the lack of recognition for foreign credentials and complex credential assessment processes, which hinder immigrants from fully contributing to Canada’s economy.

In “Harnessing Immigrant Talent: Reducing Overqualification and Strengthening the Immigration System,” Parisa Mahboubi and Tingting Zhang reveal that 26.7 percent of recent immigrants – those who arrived in Canada within the last five years – with a Bachelor’s degree or higher are employed in positions requiring only a high school diploma or less. This is three times higher than the rate for Canadian-born workers with similar education levels.

“The location of study is a key factor driving overqualification,” says Zhang. “For instance, immigrants educated in Southeast and Southern Asia are 2.7 times more likely to experience overqualification than those educated in Canada. These findings show how the perceived quality of foreign education impacts labour market outcomes, along with differences in language fluency and other contributing factors.”

The report also finds that systemic challenges, such as inefficient credential recognition and regulatory hurdles, further contribute to the issue. The complex mix of licensing and certification requirements for regulated professions creates significant barriers, particularly in healthcare, where many immigrants face difficulties despite the high demand for labour in this sector.

“The economic costs of immigrant overqualification is staggering,” says Mahboubi. “Overqualified immigrants experience the largest earnings gap, earning on average 46 percent less than non-immigrants with matching education and skills, even after controlling for other factors.”

The report outlines key recommendations to address these barriers:

  • Revise the Express Entry system to align educational and language requirements with labour market demands.
  • Expand access to workplace-focused language training programs.
  • Streamline foreign credential recognition and establish mutual recognition agreements with source countries.
  • Enhance employer awareness of immigrant credentials and provide hiring incentives.

“Highly educated immigrants in Canada are not being given opportunities to fully utilize their skills and qualifications,” says Mahboubi. “By tackling challenges and removing integration barriers, Canada can ensure that these talented individuals contribute more effectively to the economy while also enjoying fulfilling careers.”

Read the Full Report

Source: Canada Wasting the Talents of Skilled Immigrants

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Employers boost recruitment of temporary foreign workers, despite softer labour market

2024/04/25 Leave a comment

Of note (should decline given recent government changes):

Canadian companies ramped up their recruitment of temporary foreign workers last year, even as the labour market softened and the unemployment rate drifted higher.

During the last quarter of 2023, employers were approved to fill more than 81,000 positions through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, according to figures shared by the federal government with The Globe and Mail. It was easily the largest quarter for approvals since Ottawa made several employer-friendly changes to the program in the spring of 2022.

For the year, employers were approved to fill roughly 240,000 job vacancies, an increase of 7.5 per cent from 2022 – and more than double what was permitted in 2018.

The federal government is now trying to clamp down on temporary migration to the country with various changes that include tighter restrictions on the TFW program. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has said that Canadian companies have become “addicted” to temporary foreign labour….

Source: Employers boost recruitment of temporary foreign workers, despite softer labour market

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Ottawa focuses on French-speaking economic immigrants – and often bypasses stronger candidates

2024/04/16 Leave a comment

The federal government is prioritizing French-speaking economic immigrants, a shift that has often seen higher-ranking applicants bypassed in the selection process, according to a Globe and Mail analysis of figures published by the Immigration Department.

Since it overhauled the Express Entry system for skilled immigration last year, Ottawa has invited 19,700 people to apply for permanent residency based on their French skills, easily more than in other new categories for selection. The government has also extended 36,150 invites to the broad pool of candidates, whose selection is based solely on points rather than specific attributes.

To pick these French speakers, the government is effectively reaching deeper into the pool of immigration candidates, which means the cutoff score for entry is frequently much lower in this category than in others. These individuals have lower expected earnings in Canada than people with higher scores.

“What’s the objective here? If it’s about economic growth, then this is not a smart policy,” said Mikal Skuterud, an economics professor at the University of Waterloo. “But clearly, that’s not what this is about. They’re using economic-class programs to achieve different objectives.”

…“It is definitely going to affect our ability to select the top talent,” said Parisa Mahboubi, a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute….

….Anne Michèle Meggs, a former director of planning and accountability at Quebec’s Immigration Ministry, said it was unlikely Ottawa was selecting French speakers to curry favour with certain communities ahead of the next federal election. “There are not a lot of votes to find among francophones outside Quebec,” she said….

Source: Ottawa focuses on French-speaking economic immigrants – and often bypasses stronger candidates

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Mahboubi: The other immigration problem: Too much talent is leaving Canada

2024/02/16 Leave a comment

More commentary on emigration and the apparent churn we have between arrivals and departures:

The Statistics Canada paper also draws attention to the challenges immigrants encounter, extending beyond economic integration to encompass factors such as family dynamics and considerations, cultural adaptation, and the political, economic, or cultural conditions of their country of origin. Furthermore, the study highlights the phenomenon of transnationalism, where immigrants maintain ties in multiple countries. Some immigrants may plan to emigrate from Canada as part of a strategic migration approach. Not all these circumstances are easy for Canadian policy makers to address.

Other circumstances, however, are well within Canadian policy makers’ scope. Canadian living standards are stagnating. Weak capital investment is hurting productivity and incomes. Canadian businesses tend to stay small. Canadian governments rely relatively heavily on personal income taxes, with high rates that apply at relatively low income levels – not an approach that signals to talented people that Canada is the place for them. Tax reform and other changes that mitigated these problems would make Canada more attractive to everyone – immigrants and Canadian-born alike.

Paying attention to which immigrants are likeliest to leave, and why, can help Canada improve its ability to attract and retain talent. We may be able to refine our selection criteria to raise the proportion of talented, entrepreneurial immigrants who stay in Canada. We can make it easier for immigrants with specialized skills, in health care for example, to work in their professions. Moreover, addressing factors such as high taxes and regulations that stifle entrepreneurship can help Canada retain more immigrants and retain more Canadian-born talent – a win for everyone.

Parisa Mahboubi is a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute, where William Robson serves as CEO.

Source: The other immigration problem: Too much talent is leaving Canada

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