Canada’s Immigration Gains Were Driven by Selection – Maintaining Them Is Now the Challenge

2026/04/17 Leave a comment

Good report and analysis by Skuterud and his collaborators as usual. Government unfortunately continues in reverse direction:

In “Selection Matters: Lessons from Two Decades of Immigrant Earnings,” Mikal Skuterud and Ruiwen Zhang examine employment and earnings outcomes of immigrants and non-permanent residents from 2005 to 2024. The study finds that immigrants admitted after the introduction of Express Entry in 2015 experienced higher earnings at landing and strong earnings growth among highly educated immigrants, with recent male cohorts approaching parity with Canadian-born workers within five years.

“Stronger selection policies improved the economic outcomes of new immigrants, particularly among the university-educated,” says Skuterud. “These gains show that immigration can support economic growth when selection is aligned with long-run earnings potential.”

The report finds that improvements are concentrated among highly educated immigrants, especially men, consistent with the design of Express Entry. The system prioritizes candidates with strong human capital – including factors such as age, education, and work experience – and expected earnings. These gains were not accompanied by lower employment rates or weaker earnings growth, suggesting a durable improvement in immigrant outcomes.

However, the study also identifies a sharp deterioration in earnings among non-permanent resident men between 2020 and 2024, with average hourly earnings falling significantly relative to Canadian-born workers. The decline is most pronounced among college-educated workers and is consistent with changes in the composition of the temporary resident population, including shifts toward lower-earning subgroups.

The report highlights that recent policy changes, including the introduction of category-based selection and the growing role of non-permanent residents in the immigration system, may shift selection away from candidates with the highest expected earnings, potentially weakening the link between immigration and long-term economic performance.

To preserve and build on recent gains, the authors recommend returning to exclusive reliance on the Comprehensive Ranking System, while enhancing it with additional criteria such as field of study and prior Canadian earnings.

“Canada’s experience shows that selection matters,” says Skuterud. “Sustaining strong outcomes will require policies that prioritize long-term economic integration, not just short-term labour market needs.”

Read the Full Report

Source: Canada’s Immigration Gains Were Driven by Selection – Maintaining Them Is Now the Challenge

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Globe editorial: Canada has gutted its economic migration program

2026/02/02 Leave a comment

More legitimate criticism:

…Francophones are an important part of Canada’s culture and heritage – both inside and outside of Quebec. However, the idea of freezing their demographic weight based on an arbitrary date in the past is misguided. The Liberals may believe that boosting French will get votes, but the measures are unlikely to do much to increase the vitality of historic francophone communities in northern Ontario or New Brunswick. Permanent residents can choose where they live, and francophones may move to Toronto or Vancouver, where they won’t necessarily use French in daily life, or to Montreal, for increased job opportunities. 

The immigration system needs to be reset back to where it was in 2019, before the Liberal government started moving away from selecting economic immigrants through general rounds.

The Liberal government has taken some big steps to reverse poor decisions it made on immigration. It should scrap category draws for specific groups, and return to a system that selects people based on skills and the ability to succeed. Our economic future depends on it.

Source: Canada has gutted its economic migration program

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Canada’s immigration system is favouring these kinds of applicants — even over others who score higher

2026/01/12 Leave a comment

More of the preference for French-speaking immigrants in express entry, diluting the CRS:

French-speaking candidates made up 42 per cent of the people invited for permanent residence last year via Canada’s flagship skilled immigrationselection system, which favours applicants fluent in French and is upsetting those who aren’t.

In total, 48,000 of the 113,998 applicants picked under the Express Entry system were chosen for their ability in French. They were selected in periodic draws from the talent pool where candidates post their profiles, and are awarded points out of a 1,200 maximum and ranked based on age, education, work experience and other attributes.

The prioritization of francophone immigration outside Quebec has frustrated non-French-speaking candidates and critics, especially now that Ottawa has slashed the overall intakes of permanent residents in coming years. Many question if this makes sense when candidates without French are passed over despite higher ranking scores.

The deliberate effort is in part to redress the decline in the demographic weight of French-speaking Canadians outside Quebec — down from 6.1 per cent in 1971 to about four per cent today — and ensure the long-term vitality of these minority communities that are key to “Canada’s bilingual and multicultural character.”

“Human capital really isn’t a concern for the francophone draws,” said Calgary-based immigration consultant Mandeep Lidher. “With a score in the high 300s, you’re definitely less educated and you could say less likely to succeed in the Canadian labour market or economically establish yourself.”

In response to the criticism, the Immigration Department pointed out that only top-ranking eligible candidates are selected through the francophone draws. Since selected candidates must meet general eligibility criteria, it said “they demonstrate the ability to economically establish and succeed in the Canadian labour market.”

Ottawa has reduced its permanent resident intakes from 485,000 in 2024 to 380,000 in 2026, while raising the portion of the French-speaking newcomers outside Quebec in the mix from six per cent to nine per cent, and to 12 per cent in 2029….

Source: Canada’s immigration system is favouring these kinds of applicants — even over others who score higher

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Skuterud et al: How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System

2025/12/11 Leave a comment

Valid critique:

In 2023, with little fanfare and no political opposition, the federal government gave itself the power to subvert Canada’s world-renowned skilled immigration system.

That system was formerly centred on the “points system,” called the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) in its most recent incarnation. 

Under the CRS, applicants for permanent residency were evaluated on their education, work experience, and language proficiency and the highest scoring applicants were admitted. The result was a continuous inflow of top talent chosen without political influence that benefited the Canadian economy and was admired by many countries (and emulated by some).   

But in 2023, the government created a new category-based feature in the system. That feature gave the immigration minister the power to prioritize categories of immigrants and move them to the front of the line. A rules-based system was replaced with a discretion-based system. 

The result is an opaque system that is exposed to political lobbying, looks like a lottery to prospective migrants, and squeezes out highly skilled candidates. In 2025, the leading category of immigrants under the new category-based system are francophones applying to live outside Quebec. 

Contributing to Canada’s patchwork immigration system, provincial nominee programs, which give provinces the ability to prioritize groups unable to meet the standard of the points system, account for an ever-increasing share of immigrant admissions. 

Admitting fewer skilled immigrants reduces our country’s productivity and tax revenue making it harder to fund social programs. It also affects Canada’s ability to attract the world’s best and brightest students to our post-secondary institutions, which are collectively reeling from plummeting international enrolment. 

Under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program, former international students with a Canadian postsecondary credential and one year of work experience in a skilled occupation are eligible to transition to permanent resident status without leaving the country. 

The CEC program’s intention is a good one – we attract whiz kids from around the world and provide them with an education that Canadian employers can easily evaluate. When this path works, it works well. International students pay high fees, lowering tuition costs for Canadians, and those who stay end up doing well in Canada’s labour markets. 

However, this approach can be abused when postsecondary institutions use immigration, not education, to lure foreign students. This has contributed to the growth of low-quality programs and distorted incentives on all sides. The problem lies in policy design.

In response to unsustainable growth in Canada’s non-permanent resident population and worries about housing, healthcare and labour market effects, the government has cut international student admissions for 2026 by 50 percent. 

The reduction is facing criticism from the postsecondary sector, but critics are overlooking that universities and colleges are not even reaching the quotas they have been given under the already reduced caps. New foreign student arrivals are on track to reach less than 160,000 in 2025, far below the government’s cap of 305,900. 

Foreign student applications to Canada’s universities and colleges have declined dramatically because prospective students no longer see a clear path to staying in Canada. Graduate students in computer science who want to stay are being told that learning French is their best option. And they fear that when they graduate, a different arbitrary category will be the priority. The current system discourages the best foreign students from applying to Canadian postsecondary institutions and blocks many of those who graduate from remaining in Canada.  

What should be done?

First, turn back the clock. Return to the immigration system that existed as recently as 2019 when immigrants were admitted through a single selection system that prioritized candidates with the highest future Canadian earnings. That system was transparent, predictable, and not easy for lobbyists to manipulate.  

Second, send a clear message that Canada welcomes foreign students. At a time when our goods exporting industries face major challenges, we should promote one of our most valuable services exports – educating international students. Education is an export that is uniquely dependent on trust, as students must live in Canada to consume the product.

Third, refine the points system to better target international graduates with the best earnings prospects. This would lead to increased demand by international students for programs with high post-graduate earnings and benefit our immigration program. Demand for programs that offer low earnings returns would moderate attracting only those international students who are coming solely for the education, since these programs would provide no realistic pathway to PR status.  

Canada needs immigration reform now. What we have now is a bungled system that prioritizes lobbying effort over the very real contribution that immigration can make to the Canadian economy.

David Green is a professor at the Vancouver School of Economics, Philip Oreopoulos is distinguished professor in economics at the University of Toronto. Craig Riddell is emeritus professor at the Vancouver School of Economics. Mikal Skuterud is economics professor at the University of Waterloo, and the Rogers Phillips Scholar of Social Policy at the C.D. Howe Institute and Christopher Worswick is professor of economics at Carleton University and a research fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.

Source: How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System

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Un an plus tard, certaines «communautés francophones accueillantes» hors Québec ne sont pas encore en place

2025/08/16 Leave a comment

Of note. Has drawn criticism given dilution of Express Entry CRS along with other speciality draws:

L’expansion du réseau des communautés francophones accueillantes devait donner un coup d’accélérateur à l’intégration des nouveaux arrivants francophones à l’extérieur du Québec. Un an plus tard, des dix nouvelles communautés désignées, quatre n’ont toujours pas officiellement lancé leurs programmes en la matière.

Une CFA, c’est un endroit pointé par le fédéral comme une région toute désignée pour accueillir des immigrants qui veulent obtenir, dès leur arrivée au Canada, des services en français, sans nécessairement s’installer au Québec.

Parfois, « les personnes ont des projets d’immigration au Canada sans avoir une idée précise d’où ils désirent s’installer », explique Benjamin Mulaji Mukadi, coordonnateur de la CFA de Cornwall (Ontario). Les CFA agissent alors à titre de guides. Mais leur mandat va au-delà de cet accueil initial. Les CFA visent aussi à offrir aux nouveaux arrivants une gamme de services adaptés, comme le soutien à la recherche de logement et d’emploi, l’accompagnement scolaire pour les enfants, des activités communautaires en français et des occasions de réseautage.

Leur objectif est donc double : faciliter l’intégration dès les premiers mois, mais aussi inciter les familles à s’établir durablement dans des régions moins connues, plutôt que dans de grands centres urbains, comme Toronto ou Vancouver, pour ainsi renforcer la présence francophone un peu partout au pays.

24 CFA au pays

Il y a un an, Marc Miller a annoncé qu’en plus des 14 « communautés francophones accueillantes » déjà en activité dans le cadre d’un projet pilote, 10 autres municipalités allaient recevoir des fonds pour établir une structure d’accueil propre à l’immigration francophone. Il a alors nommé Nanaimo, Rivière-Rouge, Chéticamp, Belle-Baie, Caraquet, la région de Restigouche-Ouest, Prince Albert, Cornwall, le district de Cochrane et London comme nouvelles CFA.

Depuis, six d’entre elles ont officiellement lancé leurs programmes. Elles ont des pages Web, elles offrent des services avant et après l’installation des immigrants chez eux et elles organisent régulièrement des activités. Parmi elles, les CFA de Prince Albert (Saskatchewan) et de Cornwall ont donné le coup d’envoi de leurs activités à la fin juin, ce qui marquait la fin de plusieurs mois de préparation et la mise en place d’outils concrets dans leurs régions respectives, ont-elles relaté au Devoir.

Quatre autres communautés, elles, sont encore en phase de préparation : Rivière-Rouge (Manitoba), la région de Restigouche-Ouest (Nouveau-Brunswick), le district de Cochrane (Ontario) et London (Ontario). Officiellement désignées comme CFA il y a un an, elles n’ont toutefois pas encore lancé leurs programmes ni commencé à offrir de services.

Dans chacune de ces communautés, la mise en place d’une équipe, la conclusion de partenariats locaux et la planification des premières activités sont toujours en cours. Les acteurs impliqués affirment vouloir prendre le temps nécessaire pour bâtir des structures solides, capables de soutenir l’intégration francophone sur le long terme. Ils prévoient des lancements très prochainement.

Francophonie canadienne

L’annonce d’août dernier s’inscrivait dans l’effort du gouvernement libéral d’encourager l’immigration francophone hors Québec. L’objectif était alors d’octroyer 6 % des résidences permanentes à des personnes dont le français est la première langue officielle. Depuis, cette cible a évolué, Mark Carney ayant notamment lancé en campagne électorale vouloir atteindre 12 % d’immigration francophone hors Québec d’ici 2029. Cet objectif a ensuite été repris par la nouvelle ministre fédérale de l’Immigration, Lena Metlege Diab.

Ces politiques font partie d’une stratégie à long terme visant à stabiliser, voire à faire croître, le poids démographique des communautés francophones en milieu minoritaire, affirme le gouvernement fédéral. Les prochains mois devraient donc montrer si le déploiement des nouvelles CFA suivra le rythme nécessaire à l’atteinte des cibles souhaitées par Ottawa.

Source: Un an plus tard, certaines «communautés francophones accueillantes» hors Québec ne sont pas encore en place

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Alicia Planincic: We know the one thing Canada could be doing to select better economic immigrants. So why aren’t we doing it? 

2024/07/09 Leave a comment

Some useful ideas but all ranking systems are imperfect predictors of success. And wages only work for two-step immigration as numbers from other countries are not easy to compare. And there are risks in changing criteria and priorities too quickly without sound evidence and data:

…Candidates receive CRS points for things like language abilities, number of years of schooling, and whether they have a sibling in Canada. But factors like what their degree was in, or where they got it from, are not reflected. Meanwhile, the biggest limitation of the points system is that it ignores labour market information. It therefore tells us little about how valuable someone’s skills are to the Canadian economy.

To go back to hockey analogies, this way of assigning CRS points is like ranking players based on the number of games they have played in the NHL, whether they have a brother in the league, and whether they speak French—while neglecting things like how many points they tend to get every year. The evaluation would not be meaningless, but it’s easy to see how some of the best players wouldn’t be ranked at the top.

To improve the CRS, Canada needs to better capture the value of the skills a candidate brings. As it turns out, the best-known way to do so is pretty simple: have the points system reflect their current earnings.

Why is that? Wages reflect both the needs of the economy (demand) and the relative availability of labour (supply). Generally speaking, if demand for a certain occupation or skillset is strong, or few are willing or able to do this work, wages will be high.

There are other ways to improve the CRS, too.

One is to remove the variables that don’t influence an individual’s economic potential. These factors not only muddy the ranking of candidates but also can unfairly bias certain people or groups. For instance, individuals can earn points for having a sibling in Canada even though the math shows this has no direct impact on economic success. Family in Canada may be a legitimate reason to consider someone for immigration, but is not an economic one, and it is being used in the economic stream. At the same time, favouring people who already have family in Canada puts individuals from smaller countries, or those with less immigration to Canada, at a disadvantage.

Another way to improve the CRS is to regularly refine it as new and better information—including the type and quality of skill (e.g., field of study, program of education) most highly valued—becomes available and can be incorporated. The CRS cannot reflect the economy of 50 years ago. It has to be the latest and greatest of today.

The recruitment of skilled talent globally is big, exciting, and holds much potential. But Canada should not lose sight of the power of the points system, nor the talent that is in plain sight. Before marketing the country to individuals around the world, Canada should do more to select the best among those who have already put their name in the hat—to support greater prosperity for all.

Alicia Planincic is the Economist & Manager of Policy at the Business Council of Alberta. She regularly provides insight and analysis on the Canadian economy, public finances, labour markets, equity and social mobility, and public policy.

Source: Alicia Planincic: We know the one thing Canada could be doing to select better economic immigrants. So why aren’t we doing it?

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Mahboubi, Skuterud – The Unintended Consequences of Category-Based Immigrant Selection

2023/02/10 Leave a comment

Valid critique:

From: Parisa Mahboubi and Mikal Skuterud

To: Sean Fraser, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada

Date:  February 6, 2023

Re: The Unintended Consequences of Category-Based Immigrant Selection

Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) recently held consultations on plans aimed at giving the department more flexibility in how it prioritizes economic-class applicants for permanent residency.

The new rules will, in effect, free the immigration minister to bypass the existing system for selecting candidates, known as the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS), to target applicants with particular “attributes” such as work experience in a particular occupation.

This may alleviate some labour shortages, but we see significant unintended consequences.

Leveraging immigration to boost average living standards in the population requires selecting immigrants whose Canadian earnings exceed average earnings in the pre-existing population, thereby pulling up average incomes and per capita GDP.

The CRS aims to achieve this by ranking and cream-skimming economic class candidates who have the highest expected Canadian earnings. This is estimated using data on the earnings of previous cohorts of immigrants who arrived with similar human capital characteristics. Of particular importance in the CRS calculation are education, age, language abilities, and Canadian work experience.    

Recent analysis using Statistics Canada survey and census data, as well as our own examination of immigrants’ income tax records (see Figure below,) provides encouraging evidence that the CRS has contributed to rising earnings for newcomers since its launch in January 2015.  

By prioritizing applicants’ occupations, IRCC hopes it can be more responsive to employer needs, as well as address Canada’s chronic labour shortages.

But accurately identifying labour market requirements and being sufficiently responsive is difficult, if not impossible. Tight labour markets can quickly become slack. By the time targeted immigrants arrive, their skills may no longer align with employer needs, thereby exacerbating long-standing mismatch issues between immigrant skills and job openings. For this reason, the CRS does not use specific occupational information in its calculation.

The raison d’être of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, which allows Canadian businesses to employ guest workers on limited-term contracts, is to meet temporary labour-market shortages. The objective of our permanent immigration system, on the other hand, should be to drive new employment growth in high-productivity sectors that are intensive in their use of skills and new technologies.

Unfortunately, we increasingly have a system where our temporary and permanent immigration systems are focused on the same objective – satisfying employers’ current labour needs. The risk is that the overall immigration system fails to do anything well.

An important advantage of the CRS is its transparency. Candidates can determine their own scores using a simple online tool and IRCC reports cutoff scores in their bi-weekly draws allowing unsuccessful candidates to identify what’s needed to be selected. The category-based selection system that IRCC is proposing compromises this transparency by leaving screening criteria to the whims of the minister of the day. This risks increasing applicant confusion and frustration and increases the need for immigration consultants and lawyers to help applicants navigate the system. At worst, it drives applicants with the best outside options to other countries.

Allowing the ministers to determine which candidate attributes are prioritized also risks politicizing the process. Research shows that while temporary worker inflows in Canada are responsive to the intensity of corporate lobbying, the same has not been true for permanent immigration. One explanation is that ‘point systems’ like the CRS remove immigrant selection decision making from the political realm in the same way that the Bank of Canada’s inflation mandate keeps its interest rate decisions from being politicized. Look for that to change.  

In our view, prioritizing candidates’ occupational work experience in immigrant selection makes most sense in sectors where the competitive market mechanism to address labour shortages does not exist, such where wages are set by collective agreements or government regulation.

In these settings, labour shortages are less likely to induce the wage adjustments necessary to encourage job switching and training and education investments within the existing population. Chronic shortages of nurses and other healthcare workers are an important example.

Nonetheless, we question if it makes sense to prioritize applicants for permanent residency whose foreign work experience is in an occupation where credential recognition in Canada is problematic. It doesn’t really matter if credential recognition problems reflect genuine skill and competence issues, or the self-interested behaviour of professional associations. Either way, we are prioritizing applicants who will contribute relatively little to Canadian economic growth, thereby compromising the key objective of our economic immigration system.

In our view, IRCC’s planned reform of how it selects economic-class immigrants is just one step in a series of pandemic-era policies compromising the prioritization of skilled immigrants. The CRS has come to be seen by IRCC as a constraint rather than an effective quality-control mechanism. In prioritizing employers’ short-term labour needs, IRCC is being forced to lower the average CRS score of selected immigrants and, in turn, average expected earnings. The hard reality is that Canada’s newcomers continue to experience labour market challenges that are longstanding and exceptional. The risk is that the last decade’s significant gains will be undone.

Parisa Mahboubi is a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute and Mikal Skuterud is professor of economics at the University of Waterloo. 

Source: Mahboubi, Skuterud – The Unintended Consequences of Category-Based Immigrant Selection

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Express Entry: The case for resuming invitations to FSWP and CEC candidates

2022/01/27 Leave a comment

Good assessment by Kareem El-Assal:

It is in Canada’s policy interests to resume Express Entry invitations to FSWP and CEC candidates in short order.

Upon its launch in 2015, Express Entry sought to invite the highest scoring candidates to apply for permanent residence. Its dynamic nature sought to end backlogs since IRCC only needs to process the applications of those it invited rather than processing every application it receives. Unfortunately, IRCC has departed from inviting the highest scoring candidates and backlogs have grown due to it shifting its resources to prioritizing permanent residence applications submitted within Canada as well as the processing of Afghan refugee applications.

Back in 2015, IRCC argued that using the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS)to score and rank candidates was the best way to identify new immigrants most likely to successfully integrate into Canada’s economy. The CRS was informed by many decades of Statistics Canada research and hence is meant to be a scientific way of selecting the Canadians of tomorrow. Thus, it is in Canada’s best interests to use the CRS as the main determinant for Express Entry invitations. One may even argue a stronger case can be made to stick with the CRS now, during an economically turbulent period, since Statistics Canada research also shows immigrants who land during a recession have weaker economic outcomes throughout their careers in Canada than those who land during stronger economic times.

An argument to stick to the CRS can also be made on grounds of fairness. Between 2015 and the end of 2020, IRCC had been overwhelmingly issuing Express Entry invitations based on CRS score but departed from this approach in January 2021 without warning. Many candidates entered the Express Entry pool after taking steps to maximize their CRS score or have taken steps since entering the pool to improve their CRS score. Such efforts have gone for naught through no fault of their own due to IRCC shifting the goalposts on them with no advanced notice (IRCC remains quiet on its Express Entry plans for 2022).

The growth in the Express Entry backlog was avoidable since IRCC made the deliberate choice to expedite CEC application processing while holding off on processing FSWP and other applications. In the second half of 2021 it was processing about 14,000 CEC applications per month and just 600 FSWP applications monthly.

The backlog of FSWP and other applications of skilled workers abroad is proving costly since it is resulting in weaker population, labour force and economic growth. Canada’s population growth is the weakest since 1915/16 and the country is currently grappling with the highest job vacancy rate on record with nearly 1 million jobs currently unfilled. Crucial industries across the Canadian economy from health care, to transportation, to agri-food, and many others are in dire need of more workers. It goes without saying then, it is in Canada’s economic interests for IRCC to get the application processing of skilled workers abroad back on track so they can soon arrive to alleviate the labour shortages that are slowing the country’s economic recovery.

Finally, the pause in CEC draws since September is also concerning from both economic and fairness perspectives. CEC candidates tend to work for Canadian employers and are able to remain with them indefinitely after getting permanent residence via Express Entry. Many CEC candidates risk losing their legal status due to the absence of Express Entry invitations which may force them to leave the country. This would result in less economic activity in Canada and contribute to additional labour shortages and pressure for Canadian employers. From a fairness point of view, it would not be right to also shift the goalposts on such individuals with no advanced notice, and ask them to leave the country, after they have spent years contributing to Canada’s economy and society.

Source: Express Entry: The case for resuming invitations to FSWP and CEC candidates

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Douglas Todd: Economists question decision to boost immigration during pandemic

2021/02/26 3 Comments

Good and needed questioning:

Canadian economists are questioning why Ottawa is setting record immigration targets in the middle of unprecedented unemployment caused by the pandemic.

More than 1.7 million Canadians are looking for work, and the economists are warning that the Liberals’ aggressive new target of more than 400,000 new immigrants in 2021 will likely hurt the country’s low-skilled workers, particularly those who have recently become permanent residents.

Source: Douglas Todd: Economists question decision to boost immigration during pandemic

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Law firms scramble to help clients capitalize on shift in Canada’s immigration policy

2021/02/25 Leave a comment

Money quote: “it doesn’t speak favourably of the integrity and predictability of our immigration system:”

Law firms are urging their clients to get in Canada’s express pool of immigration candidates as soon as possible after the federal government invited a record number of people in that system to apply for permanent residency to help hit ambitious targets.

On Feb. 13, Immigration Canada issued the invitations to more than 27,000 people in the Express Entry system, which is aimed at expediting the intake of skilled workers. That round of invitations – known as a draw – focused on those who had at least one year of recent work experience in Canada.

The number was more than five times larger than the previous record. To hit that mark, the federal government had to drastically reduce the immigration scores needed for an invitation to apply.

The decision sent a jolt through the legal community, with initial confusion giving way to a flurry of phone calls. Many lawyers had steered clients away from Express Entry because it was unlikely they could get a high enough score.

The situation has prompted a rethink. Several law firms contacted by The Globe and Mail are now telling clients that anyone who can get into the Express Entry pool should do so, given the potential for the federal government to surprise again.

“At this point, it seems like all bets are off, and we have no predictability in terms of who’s going to be selected and who’s not,” said Meika Lalonde, partner at McCrea Immigration Law in Vancouver. “We do know that the government has some ambitious immigration targets that it wants to fill this year. So there is a possibility that they’ll draw again at a remarkably low score.”

Owing to the pandemic, Canada has just had an exceptionally weak year for immigration. About 184,000 new permanent residents were added in 2020, well short of the 341,000 target. To make up for that, Immigration Canada raised its targets for the next three years, starting with an intake of 401,000 in 2021.

With border restrictions still in place, Ottawa is focused on foreign workers and students already here. Most of the invitations issued on Feb. 13 were to people in Canada, the federal government said.

Launched in 2015, Express Entry is one of several pathways for immigration. When people go into that pool, they’re assigned a score in points based on age, education, work experience and other factors. Draws are usually held every two weeks and have a cut-off score for who gets invited.

The cut-off is usually at much more than 400 points. Successful candidates in the category of people with Canadian work experience have often been under 30 years old and had advanced degrees and strong English or French skills.

This time, the cut-off score was slashed to 75. That meant nearly everyone in the Canadian-experience stream of Express Entry got an invitation, all but depleting that source of candidates.

“I actually thought it was a mistake,” said Adrienne Smith, partner at Battista Smith Migration Law Group in Toronto. “I was completely shocked.”

Once she learned it was real, Ms. Smith advised clients to try to get into the express pool. “I just don’t want to have another client that misses out on this potential draw,” she said.

The message was the same from Sonia Matkowsky, an immigration lawyer in Toronto: “I do advise individuals [who would get] lower scores to enter the pool,” she said. “Especially this year. Anything can happen.”

It’s unclear how the coming months will play out. While the Canadian-experience stream was nearly emptied, it’s undoubtedly starting to grow again. The question is whether the cut-off score will be low in future draws.

Several lawyers say they think the federal government will eventually shift its focus outside the country. Thousands of Express Entry candidates are abroad and lack Canadian work experience, but otherwise have desirable credentials. Their entry is complicated by border restrictions.

“A lot of our clients overseas were also contacting us,” Ms. Smith said. “I think the hope and the anticipation is that in order to meet the 400,000-person target, that [the government is] going to have to move to overseas applicants next.”

Even then, the 2021 target should be tough to hit. In a recent report, RBC Economics estimated that Canada would add only 275,000 new permanent residents this year.

Some lawyers said the recent draw undermined the purpose of the Express Entry system, which is intended as a way to fast-track the top candidates rather than send a blanket invitation to virtually everyone.

“It’s a very good news story for a lot of individuals,” Ms. Lalonde said. “But I would say it doesn’t speak favourably of the integrity and predictability of our immigration system.”

Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-immigration-strategies-take-u-turn-after-surprise-government-decision/

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