Will immigration become a salient political issue in Canada?

Useful and informative polling. Money quote:

…leaders need to demonstrate there’s a coordinated, well-resourced plan to respond to the pressures created by growth. In my view, that has been sourly lacking from all levels of government.

This should also be a wake-up call to leaders from all three levels of government that if investments in infrastructure – like housing, healthcare services, and transportation – are not expediated to meet the growing population, opposition to immigration could increase thereby creating conditions for the rise of a more nationalist/populist political response.

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I can’t remember the last time immigration featured prominently in national political debates in Canada. This doesn’t mean that all Canadians hold decidedly pro-immigration attitudes. The lack of friction on the issue, in my view, is more likely the result of an elite-consensus on the value of immigration than a reflection of public opinion. We shouldn’t assume that none of the major political parties will never make immigration an issue.

In Quebec, immigration has been an issue that has animated the political debate but we haven’t seen anything similar in other parts of Canada. But we have seen immigration fuel divisive debates in the UK, France, the United States, and other democracies. Public sentiment about immigration and immigrants was a big factor in Brexit and the rise of Trump.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, my interest in the subject has been growing as the impact of the housing and healthcare crises becomes more intense and people start reflecting on what may be causing it or at the very least, making it worse.

At the same time, there’s been a lot of attention paid to the pace of population growth in Canada, with much fanfare over Canada’s population passing the 40 million mark a few weeks ago.

Last month, I asked some polling questions on a national Abacus Data survey on immigration. My intent is to start tracking opinions every six months, because I think this issue has the potential to become more salient and prominent in our political debate – especially in the lead up to the next election.

The survey, fielded from June 23 to 27, 2023, sampled 1,500 Canadian adults online. The comparable margin of error is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

Here’s a summary of what the survey found (full details below for paid subscribers):

1. 11% of Canadians rank “immigration” as a top 3 issue. This is the first time I included in out list of response categories. The rising cost of living remains a top issue to more people (71%), with healthcare (48%) and housing (43%) rounding out the top 3.
2. 61% believe that Canada’s target to welcome 500,000 immigrants next year is too high, including 37% who feel it is “way too high”.
3. When asked whether the number of immigrants coming to Canada is having a positive or negative impact on several possible areas, 63% feel it is having a negative impact on housing, 49% feel this way about its impact on traffic and congestion, and 49% feel immigration is having a negative impact on healthcare.
4. Half think immigration is having a positive impact on the availability of workers while 43% think immigration is having a positive impact on economic growth.

Digging Deeper on Public Attitudes towards Immigration

When I did a bit deeper into the data, these insights are particularly noteworthy:

• 11% of Canadians rank “immigration” as a top 3 issue. This is the first time I included in out list of response categories. The rising cost of living remains top (71%), with healthcare (48%) and housing (43%) rounding out the top 3.
• 14% of Conservative supporters, 14% of BQ supporters, 9% of Liberal supporters, and 5% of NDP supporters put immigration in their top 3 issues.
• There is some, but not large, differences in perceptions about Canada’s immigration target by party support. Conservative supporters are the most likely to feel the immigration target of 500,000 is too high with 52% feeling it is way too high. Half of Liberal and NDP supporters feel the target is too high as well. BQ supporters are in between with 36% describing the target as way too high and 35% feeling it is too high (71% too high in total).

• 35% of Canadians believe that the immigrant population is increasingly significantly in their community while another 24% think it is growing moderately. This views are consistent across the country and more pronounced among Conservative and BQ supporters, although a sizeable portion of NDP and Liberal supporters also feel this way.

• Despite 61% feeling that Canada’s immigration target is too high, 41% think their community needs less immigration – a fascinating 20 point gap between the two measures. 18% of Canadians think their community needs more immigrants while 41% think the same amount of immigration as happening now works well. Atlantic Canadians (29%) are the most likely to want to see more immigrants. Views in Quebec are close to the national average.

• There is a strong correlation between feeling the number of immigrants in one’s community is increasing and opinions about Canada’s immigration target. 67% of those who think the immigrant population in their community is increasing significantly also think Canada’s immigration target is way too high. This drops to 25% among those who feel immigration in their community is increasingly moderately, and 17% among those who think it’s increasingly slightly. Interestingly, 35% those who don’t think the immigration population in their community is growing at all think the immigration target is too high. This suggests there’s latent anti-immigration sentiment in communities where residents don’t perceive their too be much growth.
• What might be impacting the overall negative impression of immigration? It’s clear the recent crises in housing and healthcare are definitely pain points. Half or more people feel that immigration is having a negative impact on both. If those issues get worse, I expect overall sentiment to immigration to also get worse.

• Despite the friction that immigration is causing, the good news is only a minority (although a sizeable minority at 36%) believe that on balance, immigration in Canada is making the country worse off. 17% feel it is making Canada much worse off. In contrast, 29% feel immigration makes the country better while 29% think it’s impact is neutral.

• To better understand the drivers of this view, I ran a simple regression model with views about immigration overall with several of the variables from the survey. That analysis finds that perceptions about the economic impact of immigration, its impact on crime and public safety, and its impact on fostering a sense of community are the largest predictors of one’s view on whether immigration has a net benefit on Canada overall. This suggests that the relatively short-term problems of housing and healthcare are not yet impact people’s overall views about immigration. Instead, the perceived economic benefits drive support or at least mute opposition to immigration while longer-term concerns (possibly driven by xenophobia or racism) about social cohesion and crime are major drivers for negative perceptions/attitudes about immigration.

The Upshot

The survey data suggests that the Canadian public is not overwhelmingly pro-immigration but also not overwhelming anti-immigration either. Friction about immigration’s impact on housing, traffic congestion, and healthcare is pretty widespread and deeply felt.

About 1 in 3 Canadians (36%) believe that immigration is making Canada worse off overall. This is not an insignificant minority but likely one that has existed for some time. The question is whether the relatively recent housing and healthcare crises push more people into this camp. If so, that could become a powerful political coalition.

The data reveals a gap in perception versus community need, with 61% believing Canada’s immigration target of 500,000 is too high, but only 41% feeling their community needs less immigration.

It’s noteworthy that Quebecers do not appear more resistant to immigration than others and younger Canadians are more open to it than older Canadians.

The survey’s results highlight the need for a strategic approach in managing public perception around immigration in Canada. Given the significant proportion of Canadians perceiving immigration’s impact as negative on housing and healthcare, politicians and policy-makers should engage in transparent discussions about the impacts of immigration on these areas, possibly linking it to other causes of strain on these sectors.

More important, leaders need to demonstrate there’s a coordinated, well-resourced plan to respond to the pressures created by growth. In my view, that has been sourly lacking from all levels of government.

This should also be a wake-up call to leaders from all three levels of government that if investments in infrastructure – like housing, healthcare services, and transportation – are not expediated to meet the growing population, opposition to immigration could increase thereby creating conditions for the rise of a more nationalist/populist political response.

Political managers should also highlight the economic benefits of immigration to sway the 52% of Canadians who view immigration’s impact on economic growth as either neutral or negative. This requires engaging economists, industry leaders, and community spokespeople to discuss how immigrants contribute to the economy through taxes, starting businesses, and addressing Canada’s aging population.

Politically, Conservative and BQ supporters show more resistance to immigration, suggesting the elite-concensus on immigration should not be taken for granted. Immigration could become a salient political issue that would allow the Conservatives and BQ to speak to voters who may not otherwise consider voting for those two parties. It could also serve as a powerful issue for the People’s Party.

Let’s not underestimate the potential political power of this issue. There may be a clear political majority who are worried about immigration and could be mobilized in reaction to their views. Immigration also has the potential to fundamental realign Canadian politics.

Too often, I hear people who assume Canada is immune to the political forces that have engulfed and divided other populations. That Canada is unique in its liberal, open-to-immigration, orientation. This data should cause those to reflect on that and consider the risk these numbers represent.

Finally, I am planning to track opinions every six months because I think we need to monitor these views more regularly. This continuous feedback loop will be crucial in understanding changing perceptions and adjusting messaging, especially in the lead up to the next election.

I welcome your thoughts and feedback and suggestions for future research.