MPI: Population Aging Is Here. Immigration Can Offer Half an Answer.

2026/07/30 Leave a comment

Another analysis on the limits of immigration to address population aging and low fertility rates:

Countries around the world face a demographic transition that is arriving faster than many governments have planned for, as falling fertility and aging populations place growing pressure on workforces, tax bases and the public systems that support retirees. 

The scale of the change is now visible well beyond the wealthy countries that have long grappled with aging populations. China’s annual births have fallen to levels not recorded since 1949, and comparable declines are underway in countries across Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, leaving many countries old before they grow rich, with shrinking workforces and rising costs for pensions and health care. 

A new Migration Policy Institute (MPI) policy brief finds that treating immigration as a numbers game—rather than planning for integration and workforce participation—leaves much of its demographic dividend on the table. 

In many fast-aging, wealthier countries, governments have long leaned on immigration as a response to shrinking, aging workforces, but the math does not support that expectation at scale, Meghan Benton, director of MPI’s Global Program, writes in Population Aging Is Here. Immigration Can Offer Half an Answer. Holding worker-to-retiree ratios steady through migration alone would require a 75 percent increase in the combined population of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries by 2050—a level of growth few, if any, publics would accept. 

Immigration should be understood as a partial lever rather than a substitute for broader demographic strategy, which must include retirement-age extensions, productivity investments, family-friendly policies and social security reforms, the brief notes. 

On the immigration front, Benton argues that governments need to pay greater attention to whether newcomers and their families can participate fully in the economy; failure to do so leaves real fiscal value on the table when integration is treated as secondary. 

The brief sets out several principles for better leveraging immigration, including prioritizing the skills and career stage of arriving immigrants; treating integration programming, including language training, as an investment rather than a cost; folding immigration into the same long-term planning governments already apply to pensions, housing and infrastructure; addressing pension gaps for aging immigrants through portable retirement funds; and ensuring immigration narrows rather than widens global inequality by investing in skills partnerships that connect training, mobility and local development. 

The brief also cautions against assuming artificial intelligence can quickly substitute for immigration. Benton notes that prioritizing high earners may be difficult given rising low-skilled labor shortages in sectors such as elder care, agriculture, hospitality and construction, which remain largely resistant to near-term automation. Governments will need to prioritize those with flexible skills. 

“While immigration cannot solve population aging, it can be a useful demographic and economic lever—if it is employed more effectively,” Benton writes. “The next few years will provide a real-time experiment in the success of policies that prioritize immigration versus other economic levers to help countries navigate population aging, including extending retirement age, investing in productivity advances and reforming social security systems. Different models are already taking shape.” 

Source: Population Aging Is Here. Immigration Can Offer Half an Answer.

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Immigrants to Canada have adopted the country’s low-fertility rates, new research finds

2026/07/30 Leave a comment

Not new but further confirmation that immigration has a limited impact on overall population growth:

Economic migrants, who make up the bulk of Canada’s immigrants, have adopted their new country’s behaviour in one significant area — they have very low fertility rates, new research suggests.

“Immigrants are feeling the low-fertility pressure of Canada here, like everyone else,” says demographer and sociologist Rachel Margolis, a professor at Western University, and one of the authors of a new paper on immigration and fertility.

Even groups with relatively high fertility — family stream and refugees — are also below the replacement level of 2.1 children, according to the research. Additionally, the top three source countries Canada draws immigrants from are low-fertility nations. The total fertility rate in India, the top source country, for instance, has dropped to 1.9 children per woman.

At a record low of 1.25 children per woman, Canada has entered an “ultra-low fertility” era. In 2024, it joined a list of several countries, including Finland, Italy and South Korea, with a fertility rate below 1.3.

Canada grows its population and bolsters the economy through immigration. But that short-term solution for population loss doesn’t address long-term population aging, according to the study….

Ramos highlights that it’s probably time for the country to consider a population strategy. “I think Canada’s policy has largely focused on economic issues and treated other issues as challenges to the economy, whereas really, underlying most of the economic issues are demographic issues.

Source: Immigrants to Canada have adopted the country’s low-fertility rates, new research finds

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Barutciski: The UN’s Refugee Convention finds itself at a crossroads 75 years later – because of how it’s being interpreted

2026/07/29 2 Comments

Sort of inevitable that conventions get reinterpreted over time but always useful to assess that reinterpretation and the impact of these changes. But yes, empathy and understanding required in both directions:

…The 75th anniversary of the Refugee Convention offers a critical opportunity to change this unsustainable trajectory. Today, the greatest threat to refugee dignity is not domestic xenophobia, though societies must remain vigilant against it. It may be a maximalist and activist reading of the historic treaty pushed by open-border advocates that has stifled candid, pragmatic debate. 

Refugee protection can only survive if it retains the democratic support of host populations. Without it, public goodwill will continue to dry up, leaving governments to scramble with short-sighted, improvised burden-shifting schemes. 

Crucially, sovereign states are not permanently bound by expansive judicial decisions, even if it is reasonable for the interpretation of international treaty law to evolve. National parliaments possess the authority to amend domestic legislation to clarify ambiguous legal terms. By codifying precise thresholds for asylum, most legislatures can effectively override a judiciary and restore the structural parameters originally intended by the treaty.

The central predicament is that few political leaders in the West possess the courage to confront the contradiction characterizing modern refugee law. Instead, mainstream politicians maintain a facade of humanitarian concern, failing to recognize that sustainable policy requires empathy in both directions – toward needy foreigners, and toward the citizens asked to absorb them. 

Source: The UN’s Refugee Convention finds itself at a crossroads 75 years later – because of how it’s being interpreted

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Indian students arranged marriages of convenience for spouse work permits to Canada, warned New Delhi migration official

2026/07/29 Leave a comment

The warnings were there:

The number of Indian undergraduate students applying to come to Canada has dropped over the past few years, in part because Ottawa ended a program granting the spouses of international students work permits, an internal government communication shows. 

The communication discloses how marriages of convenience by some Indian students had enabled their spouses to accompany them to this country to work and to help them pay for their studies.

A 2025 e-mail report, obtained under access to information laws, to immigration department officials from Canada’s High Commission in New Delhi discusses a number of integrity issues involving Indian students, including marriages of convenience.

Marriages linked to immigration to Canada were advertised in Indian newspapers and dating apps, according to the report.

But a change in the rules in 2024 by then-immigration minister Marc Miller closed this avenue to Canada for international students’ spouses. …

Richard Kurland, an immigration lawyer who obtained the e-mail through an access to information request, said Canada can pick who it wants to come here to study and “that should mean only the people who can afford to study in Canada without working.”

“Study permits should not be a dating trampoline to Canada,” Mr. Kurland added. 

The number of Indian study permit holders dropped to 93,840 in 2025 from 188,125 in 2024 and 277,950 in 2023, according to IRCC figures, reducing a key revenue stream for many colleges and universities. 

Syed Hussan, executive director at Migrant Workers Alliance for Change, said he thought the drop in numbers was because “people are choosing not to go to countries where they cannot go with their families.”…

Source: Indian students arranged marriages of convenience for spouse work permits to Canada, warned New Delhi migration official

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Canadians returning from ISIS ‘highly likely’ to pose threat, intelligence report says

2026/07/29 Leave a comment

Reasonable assessment:

A group of Canadians detained overseas for allegedly being part of ISIS will “highly likely” pose a threat when they return home, warns an intelligence document obtained by Global News.

The Integrated Threat Assessment Centre report was written in June, after Iraq said it had taken custody of an unspecified number of ISIS membersfrom Canada.

The suspects are liable to contribute to extremism once they returned to Canada, “either directly through an act of violence or indirectly by radicalizing others,” the intelligence report said.

“A potential return of Canadian extremist travellers currently in Iraqi custody would highly likely pose a violent extremist threat to Canada,” it said.

The danger posed by returning ISIS supporters was underscored on Saturday when a 21-year-old attacked Berlin’s Pride festival with a vehicle and knife….

Source: Canadians returning from ISIS ‘highly likely’ to pose threat, intelligence report says

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Don’t pay tax? Don’t vote, says Shopify CEO

2026/07/29 1 Comment

Yet another tech bro with anti-democratic tendencies:

Canadians who don’t pay income tax and pensioners shouldn’t have the right to vote, according to the CEO and co-founder of e-commerce company Shopify.

In a post on X, Tobias Lutke endorsed a plan that would strip millions of Canadians of the right to vote. A post by a retired banker suggested proportional voting based on the level of income tax paid.

“What about weighted voting proportional to the level of income tax you pay? (no income tax paid – 0 vote, $1-100k – 1 vote, $100-200k 2 votes and so on… cap it at 5 votes for $500k+. For those that constantly complain about the wealthy not paying tax/fair share they’d have nothing to worry about right? Why not reward representation of taxation and build a democracy around those that foot the bill?” wrote Eric Thor.

To which Lutke replied, “Good system,” adding in another post, “Reward productive people with leverage.”…

Source: Don’t pay tax? Don’t vote, says Shopify CEO

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ICYMI: World Cup leads to 175 asylum claims from visitors who arrived in Canada for matches

2026/07/28 Leave a comment

Not surprising. About 0.07 percent of total visitors:

…Visitors to Canada who applied for visas to attend the FIFA World Cup have so far lodged 175 asylum claims, including from Senegal, Ghana and Egypt.

Canada played host to 13 games in Toronto and Vancouver in June and July, issuing 26,000 visas to visitors. Spain won the international tournament on Sunday by defeating the previous reigning champion, Argentina.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada declined to say how many of the refugee claims were made by soccer players or support staff from visiting teams.

The number of claims could still increase, including from foreign nationals who overstay the terms of their visa and later claim refugee status. ….

Source: World Cup leads to 175 asylum claims from visitors who arrived in Canada for matches

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ICYMI – Urback: Canada does not owe international students a path to residency

2026/07/28 2 Comments

Suspect this represents a majority view even if federal and provincial governments, along with education institutions, were complicit:

…None of this is fair in the very colloquial sense of the word. The Canadian government was explicitly marketing student visas as a path to permanent residency by inviting foreigners to “study, work and stay in Canada,” and prospective students responded in droves. In 2023-24, there were 428,077 student visa-holders in Canada, which was up nearly 50 per cent from just before the pandemic. And the reason why that number exploded was not because people from Punjab were suddenly ecstatic about the opportunity to learn hairdressing at the Eikonic Academy in Mississauga, but because everyone knew it was an easy way to start a new life in Canada. You could even work as much as you wanted while you ostensibly studied for a degree to take back home.

The Canadian government cannot and should not do anything now to placate the international students protesting for PGWP access, even though Ottawa played a major role in setting their expectations in the first place. Canadian residency cannot be for sale, even if the Canadian government dangled the prospect just a few years ago. This is an unfortunate outcome for those who risked everything to start a new life in Canada, but the process was always that: a risk. 

Source: Canada does not owe international students a path to residency

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MP Rempel Garner: “Temporary” status is a lie. That must change.

2026/07/27 Leave a comment

Of note. Don’t understand the parent reference but do share the concern over C-3 and the shift from jus soli to jus sanguinis:

…The federal government has also shown no willingness to review Canada’s overly permissive automatic citizenship system, wherein the descendants of two non-permanents receive citizenship if they are born in Canada and can in turn can (in some cases) enable a pathway to residency for the parents, instead passing legislation that further enables endless chain migration of persons with few ties to Canada. They have levelled few consequences for profiteers like the operators of foreign student diploma mills, or unscrupulous immigration consultants who continue to scam victims. And the Liberals continue to issue hundreds of thousands of new temporary work and study permits this year alone.

And when it comes to the millions of people in Canada with no status or with expired or expiring visas, precious few have been removed, and the Liberals have given no sign that they plan to scale up capacity to enforce immigration law.

Unless immediately corrected, this continued abuse of the spirit and letter of immigration law and the resulting unfettered opening of Canada’s borders will almost certainly be judged by future historians as the core reason why Canada’s pluralism failed….

Source: “Temporary” status is a lie. That must change.

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Nicolas | Tiers pays sûr, vraiment?

2026/07/27 Leave a comment

Hard to see the STCA surviving the court challenge:

…Empêcher les demandes d’asile de personnes ayant transité par les États-Unis est décrié comme un problème majeur par les défenseurs des droits de la personne depuis des années. Mais avec Trump et la violence politique de l’ICE, la situation s’est lourdement encore aggravée. Lorsque le statut de protection temporaire pour les Haïtiens prendra effectivement fin, et que les expulsions massives reprendront malgré la gravité de la situation à Port-au-Prince, comment Ottawa pourra-t-il se justifier de toujours considérer les États-Unis comme un « pays sûr » ? Et sinon, ces personnes devraient aller où, au juste ? Quelle avenue, quel avenir leur restera-t-il, encore ?”

Source: Chronique | Tiers pays sûr, vraiment?

… Preventing asylum applications from people who have passed through the United States has been decried as a major problem by human rights defenders for years. But with Trump and the political violence of the ICE, the situation has worsened even more. When the temporary protection status for Haitians actually ends, and mass expulsions resume despite the seriousness of the situation in Port-au-Prince, how can Ottawa justify still considering the United States as a “safe country”? And if not, where exactly should these people go? What avenue, what future will they have, again?”

Filed under Immigration, Refugees, Trump administration Tagged with ,

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