Personal reflections on the immigration levels plan

2023/11/03 Leave a comment

Reviewing the plan and the coverage to date, my initial reflections are as follows:

The approach of stabilizing levels at 500,000 in 2025 resulted in the headlines the government likely wanted, with words like “plafonnent,” “hold back,” “capping,” “level out” and”stabilize.”

However, given that means an increase from 2023 levels of 465,000 to 500,000 in 2025, this “stabilizing” is more virtue signalling that they are listening to public concerns than actually taking action. The fact that any further adjustment would happen after the 2025 election makes is likely meaningless for the current government.

Moreover, given timelines to increase housing and healthcare capacity, continued increases in immigration levels will simply exacerbate the gap between levels and absorptive capacity. Hard to see this as a winning strategy…

However, should, as appears likely, the Conservatives form the next government, they would be faced with a high baseline level that may or may not be politically difficult to undo. And of course, the Liberals may have thoughts of this being a potential wedge issue for immigrant origin voters, a dubious strategy given that immigrant voters are more concerned about high immigration levels than Canadian-born (Environics Focus Canada 2023).

The plan, as is common in government documents, fails to acknowledge the negative impacts of some policy changes:

On the positive side, the government belatedly notes the impact of high levels of immigration on housing, healthcare and infrastructure and notes the need for a “whole of government” approach to improve the absorptive capacity:

While immigration contributes to the supply of labour, alleviates demographic pressures, and provides social and cultural benefits, it also creates demand for infrastructure and services. With significant and sustained growth in planned notional immigration levels, success for newcomers and all Canadians means working collaboratively with other federal departments, provinces and territories, communities and municipalities, Indigenous communities, the private sector, and stakeholders.

While there is more discussion on the role and importance of temporary foreign workers but no details on possible actions resulting from his media comment that “Canada has become “addicted” to temporary foreign workers, which has created what he called “perverse incentives” and, in some cases, led to abuse of the workers.” Minister Miller has started to address the abuse of the international student program but still too early to tell how effective these changes will be given implementation issues.

Filed under Immigration Tagged with ,

Ottawa et Québec plafonnent leurs seuils d’immigration

2023/11/03 Leave a comment

Parallel approach but Quebec maintaining the current ceiling while the federal government does so in 2025.

Bloc leader Blanchet argues that levels are not fixed given that Parliament passed the Bloc motion that « de revoir ses cibles d’immigration dès 2024 après consultation du Québec, des provinces et des territoires en fonction de leur capacité d’accueil, notamment en matière de logement, de soins de santé, d’éducation, de francisation et d’infrastructures de transport, le tout dans l’objectif d’une immigration réussie ».

Translation: “To review its immigration targets as early as 2024 after consulting Quebec, the provinces and territories according to their reception capacity, particularly in terms of housing, health care, education, francization and transport infrastructure, all with the objective of successful immigration.”

La hausse constante du nombre d’immigrants temporaires force Ottawa et Québec à plafonner leurs seuils d’immigration pour les prochaines années. C’est ce qu’ont annoncé les deux ordres de gouvernement mercredi.

En plus du nombre record d’immigrants temporaires, la situation « volatile » du français contraint le gouvernement du Québec à limiter sa planification de l’immigration aux deux prochaines années. D’ici 2025, il choisit de maintenir ses seuils « réguliers » à 50 000 nouveaux arrivants par année, mais exclut les « diplômés » du Programme de l’expérience québécoise de son calcul.

Le premier ministre québécois, François Legault, et sa ministre de l’Immigration, Christine Fréchette, ont présenté en conférence de presse le plan gouvernemental en matière d’immigration pour la période 2024-2025. Contrairement à ce qui était prévu, le document, qui est le fruit de consultations menées en septembre à l’Assemblée nationale, ne contient pas de cibles pour 2026 et 2027.

« On va, pendant deux ans, regarder l’impact [de nos mesures]. En fonction de ces résultats-là, on prendra des décisions pour les années suivantes », a expliqué M. Legault. « La situation est volatile, a ajouté Mme Fréchette. On voit le nombre de résidents non permanents monter encore et encore. »

Même approche du côté d’Ottawa, qui a aussi annoncé un plafonnement de ses cibles d’immigration pour 2026. Le ministre de l’Immigration, des Réfugiés et de la Citoyenneté, Marc Miller, a confirmé que le Canada accueillerait 500 000 nouveaux résidents permanents en 2026, soit la même cible que l’année précédente.

Il s’agit d’une première pause dans la tendance à la hausse des objectifs d’immigration des dernières années. Les cibles du gouvernement canadien annoncées l’an dernier prévoyaient l’accueil de 465 000 résidents permanents cette année, 485 000 en 2024 et 500 000 en 2025.

« En stabilisant le nombre de nouveaux arrivants, nous reconnaissons que le logement, la planification des infrastructures et la croissance durable de la population doivent être correctement pris en compte », a déclaré le ministre Miller lors de son annonce.

Le gouvernement canadien vise également une immigration francophone hors Québec de 6 % en 2024, 7 % en 2025 et 8 % en 2026 — des cibles beaucoup plus modestes que ce que plusieurs organisations réclament.

Le statu quo semblait se dessiner depuis quelques jours à Ottawa. Mardi, le ministre Miller affirmait déjà qu’il ne « voyait pas un scénario où on diminuerait les niveaux [d’immigration] » et que « le mot d’ordre, c’est une certaine stabilisation ».

Le français sous la loupe

Pour deux ans, et pour agir dans le dossier « déterminant » de la protection du français, le gouvernement Legault maintiendra pour sa part ses cibles « régulières » d’immigration permanente aux niveaux actuels. « C’est important, pour nous, pour arrêter, pour inverser le déclin du français, de se limiter à 50 000 », a dit le premier ministre mercredi.

À ce seuil de base s’ajoutera toutefois une dizaine de milliers d’immigrants non comptabilisés dans les seuils de Québec. En mai, la ministre de l’Immigration avait proposé que les immigrants issus du volet « diplômés du Québec » du Programme de l’expérience québécoise soient exclus du calcul des cibles. Elle ira de l’avant avec cette mesure. Selon les estimations du ministère, ces nouveaux arrivants seront environ 6500 en 2024. Un arriéré de 6600 personnes du milieu des affaires doit également être « écoulé » l’an prochain, ce qui porterait le nombre d’immigrants permanents à quelque 63 000 en 2024.

M. Legault assure que la montée en force dans les sondages du Parti québécois — qui propose une baisse des seuils — n’explique pas sa décision de maintenir la cible migratoire de base à 50 000 nouveaux arrivants. Le gouvernement a aussi dû prendre en compte la capacité d’accueil du Québec, a précisé Mme Fréchette.

Comme il l’avait laissé entendre au printemps, Québec soumettra les immigrants issus du Programme des travailleurs étrangers temporaires, à l’exception des travailleurs agricoles, à des exigences en français. Au renouvellement de leur permis de travail, ils devront démontrer une maîtrise du français de niveau quatre, c’est-à-dire être capables de « discuter avec leur entourage » de « sujets familiers », a précisé la ministre Fréchette.

Cette « avancée historique » n’est qu’une première étape, a assuré l’élue de la Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ). « Autour de 35 000 » résidents non permanents seront soumis à cette mesure, soit moins de 8 % des 470 000 temporaires recensés au Québec en juillet.

Le gouvernement Legault souhaite donc convaincre Ottawa d’exiger les mêmes connaissances aux immigrants de son Programme de mobilité internationale — ils sont 119 000 au Québec.

Dialogue vague avec Québec

La ministre Fréchette s’attendait à une réduction des cibles fédérales d’immigration. En conférence de presse, mercredi, elle a reproché à Ottawa de ne pas avoir considéré « la situation qui prévaut au Québec » en fixant ses propres seuils.

« Au niveau politique, il n’y a pas eu de consultation. Et, normalement, le gouvernement fédéral doit tenir compte des cibles d’immigration du Québec avant de s’avancer sur ses propres cibles », a-t-elle relevé.

Questionné à ce sujet, le ministre Miller a affirmé avoir parlé à deux reprises avec Mme Fréchette à propos de l’accueil des réfugiés, des travailleurs étrangers temporaires et des étudiants étrangers. « Oui, j’ai aussi parlé de nos attentes pour l’accueil des familles. […] Est-ce que je dis [la cible de] 500 000 à tout le monde ? Non, ce serait violer le privilège du Parlement », s’est-il défendu.

« Est-ce que c’était à la hauteur [des] attentes [de Québec] ? Je ne peux pas y répondre. On s’était parlé sachant la position publique de la CAQ sur les cibles du Canada », a-t-il ajouté.

En vertu de l’accord Canada-Québec, le Québec fixe ses propres niveaux d’immigration. Le printemps dernier, Christine Fréchette avait annoncé qu’elle mettrait deux scénarios à l’étude. L’un d’eux, qui augmenterait la cible en 2027 à 60 000 immigrants, rompt avec l’affirmation faite par François Legault durant la campagne électorale selon laquelle rehausser les seuils serait « un peu suicidaire » pour le statut du français au Québec. Le second scénario vise un maintien du statu quo à 50 000 immigrants permanents par année.

Toutefois, pour le chef du Bloc québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, les cibles annoncées mercredi ne peuvent pas être finales.

Mardi, M. Blanchet a notamment mis en avant une motion demandant au gouvernement « de revoir ses cibles d’immigration dès 2024 après consultation du Québec, des provinces et des territoires en fonction de leur capacité d’accueil, notamment en matière de logement, de soins de santé, d’éducation, de francisation et d’infrastructures de transport, le tout dans l’objectif d’une immigration réussie ».

La motion a été adoptée à l’unanimité à la Chambre mercredi, juste avant l’annonce du ministre Miller.

« [Le gouvernement] a voté pour [la motion], donc il est d’accord avec moi. […] Ses cibles actuelles ne peuvent pas être finales et permanentes, c’est lui qui l’a dit ! » s’est exclamé M. Blanchet.

Source: Ottawa et Québec plafonnent leurs seuils d’immigration

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

What Biden’s AI Executive Order Says About Immigration – Boundless

2023/11/03 Leave a comment

Of interest and for Canadian policy makers to consider impact on Canada if not already doing so:

President Biden signed an artificial intelligence executive order Monday to make it easier for the U.S. to attract foreign AI talent and increase American competitiveness.

Here is a summary of the key proposals to reduce barriers to highly-skilled immigration, with insights from the Federation for American Scientists, a nonprofit think tank.

GLOBAL AI TALENT ATTRACTION PROGRAM

The order instructs the State Department to establish a “Global AI Talent Attraction Program” to meet the surging demand for top-tier AI researchers.

UPDATED J-1 EXCHANGE VISITOR SKILLS LIST

Updating and expanding the skills list for J-1 exchange visitors to keep pace with the evolving global labor market and bridge skill gaps in fields like artificial intelligence.

STREAMLINED VISA RENEWAL

The executive order will allow J-1 research scholars and F-1 STEM visa students to renew their visas from within the U.S., simplifying the process and reducing processing times for around 450,000 international students.

MODERNIZED H-1B VISA RULES

The order seeks to modernize H-1B visa rules, benefiting over 500,000 H-1B visa holders by making it easier for foreign workers to change jobs and simplifying the renewal process.

POLICY MANUAL UPDATES

The order modernizes pathways for experts in AI and emerging technologies, making criteria for visas more inclusive and easing the entry of startup founders.

“SCHEDULE A” UPDATE

“Schedule A” is a list of occupations for which the Department of Labor (DOL) has determined there aren’t enough U.S. workers to fill open positions. The executive order seeks to update the list, adding or removing occupations to reflect the changing job market.

STREAMLINING VISA SERVICES

The order makes it easier for workers in emerging tech fields to enter the U.S. by reducing processing times and ensuring the continued availability of visa appointments.

For more info, the Federation of American Scientists has put together a detailed analysis

Source: What Biden’s AI Executive Order Says About Immigration – Boundless

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , ,

Canada looking to stabilize immigration levels at 500,000 per year in 2026

2023/11/03 Leave a comment

One of the general articles covering the plan with Phil Triadafilopoulos stating the obvious that housing pressures will continue with these high levels give the time it takes for housing to be built:

After increasing its immigration targets several times in recent years, the federal government announced Wednesday it’s aiming to maintain its target of welcoming 500,000 new permanent residents in 2026.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller said the target is meant to support the labour supply while easing pressures on housing and health care.

“What Canadians are telling us, what economists are telling us, is that we have to dive into the micro-economic impacts of immigration,” Miller told a press conference.

The government has steadily increased its immigration targets in recent years to boost the workforce and support an aging population.

Last year, the government released a plan to grant permanent residency to 465,000 people in 2023, a figure that’s set to rise to 500,000 by 2025. The immigration target for 2015 was under 300,000.

Miller said Wednesday the government is now levelling off its planned immigration intake to see what sorts of adjustments can be made to Canada’s immigration programs.

“Those numbers were needed but now we have to take a look at them, where we feel they’re reasonable and plateauing in a space where we think it makes sense,” he said.

“We have a lot of complex calculations that we need to make and measures we need to adjust. I think it’s sometimes politically convenient to come out with a hammer-type approach… It’s more on the level of finer surgery that we need to adjust.”

Canada’s population grew by a record 1 million people in 2022. The population also surpassed the 40 million mark earlier this year.

That population growth is coming at a time when the country is also facing a housing shortage. Almost 5.8 million new units will have to be built by the end of the decade in order to fix the housing supply, said a report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released in September.

Miller admitted the housing shortage was a factor in the decision to level off immigration targets. He said it was not the main factor.

“If that were the sole reason, it would totally be misunderstanding the challenges I think we’re facing as a country,” he said.

Many experts have said that the root causes of this housing shortage are not related to immigration. Red tape and anti-development sentiment at the municipal level, for example, can lead to major delays in housing projects.

The federal government is pushing municipalities to adjust their zoning bylaws through its housing accelerator program.

Miller maintained that Canada will need to maintain immigration levels in order to provide the workers who can build houses.

Earlier this year, the government announced changes to the express entry system that would prioritize tradespeople for permanent residency. Miller said those changes have attracted roughly 1,500 tradespeople from abroad.

But Phil Triadafilopoulos, a political science professor who specializes in immigration at the University of Toronto, said high levels of immigration will still put pressure on the housing market.

“I don’t know whether pausing at a historically high level of immigration is really going to do much to ease affordability issues around housing,” he told CBC News. “Those pressures are going to persist, I think.”

The government’s target for economic immigrants is holding steady at 60 per cent of total immigration, according to the new plan

Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, said the government should boost that portion to 65 per cent.

“Unfilled job openings for highly skilled and educated professionals remain stubbornly high. If not addressed with urgency and ambition, this shortage of leading talent will have a large and lasting impact on Canadian technological innovation, labour productivity and capital investment,” he said in a media statement.

Jenny Kwan, the NDP’s immigration critic, said the Liberals’ plan lacks transparency.

‘While the government’s immigration levels plan document talks about ensuring newcomers can successfully resettle in Canada, there are no plans attached to make that happen. Once again, it’s all talk and not action,” she said in a media statement.

Source: Canada looking to stabilize immigration levels at 500,000 per year in 2026

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , , ,

Miller shares strategy for Canada’s immigration system, ahead of new levels plan

2023/11/02 Leave a comment

The messaging before the levels plan, along with a glossy communications piece:

The federal government’s priorities for improving Canada’s immigration system include better aligning the number of people welcomed to the country with what the labour market needs, as well as services and infrastructure, says a report released Tuesday.

“With an aging population, people living longer, families having fewer children, Canada imperatively needs immigration to rebalance our demographics and support the growing need for workers,” federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said Tuesday.

“Today, we’re laying out our plans to build an immigration system that can meet the future demands of our country,” Miller added as he released a report outlining key actions intended to strengthen the immigration system, based on consultations with stakeholders.

The report comes ahead of the federal government’s annual immigration levels plan, which Miller is expected to table in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

Among the changes outlined in the report is the need to develop a “whole-of-government” approach to immigration growth. Such an approach would take housing, health care, infrastructure and other services into account when planning immigration levels.

Canada’s immigration system has faced scrutiny recently as high levels of newcomers drive population growth and put pressure on the housing market. Last year’s immigration plan, released in November, said Canada would welcome 500,000 immigrants per year by 2025.

Miller suggested Tuesday the constraints in the housing market are the result of a failure to take action by both Conservative and Liberal federal governments, as well as the provinces.

However, he pointed recent steps by the federal government to address the housing shortage, including the rollout of the housing accelerator fund, which gives cities additional money to boost housing development.

The report also offers a guidefor other action the federal government has either begun or is in the processing of developing to improve the immigration system.

That includes developing a new francophone immigration policy that will “enhance the vitality of francophone minority communities, while maintaining and increasing the demographic weight of French linguistic minority communities in Canada,” according to a news release.

The report proposes creating a chief international talent officer position to better align immigration programs and pathways with the labour market.

It says the federal government is also looking at creating a “recognized institutions framework” to fast-track study permits for educational institutions with high standards.

Source: Miller shares strategy for Canada’s immigration system, ahead of new levels plan

Government explainer: An Immigration System for Canada’s Future: A plan to get us there

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

In Germany, the anti-immigrant left is on the rise. Will it hold back the far right – or help it? 

2023/11/02 Leave a comment

Of note:

Sahra Wagenknecht is a 54-year-old politician who, until recently, was a member of the struggling leftwing party Die Linke. She is also a household name in Germany. A figure with undeniable charisma, she’s a stalwart on television talkshows, where her ability to present sometimes radical opinions as though they were common sense makes for lively discussions and entertaining viewing. Now, with the launch of her own party – named after herself – Germans may soon get the chance to vote for her too. Does she stand a chance – and what does the fanfare about the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) tell us about the direction of German politics?

In part, at least, people pay attention to Wagenknecht because she’s long had a penchant for radical positions. When she first came of political age, even Die Linke was concerned that she was a Stalin apologist. But Wagenknecht’s politics have changed with age. Her communism has been tempered by some expressions of admiration for the free market. She’s also become increasingly critical of immigration, Germany’s Covid-19 policies, sanctions on Russia, climate protesters and “lifestyle leftists”, as Wagenknecht dubs many advocates for racial and gender equality. Unsurprisingly, Die Linke hardly seems sorry to see her go: “It’s like with the grandmother who has cancer,” Dietmar Bartsch, co-chair of the party’s parliamentary committee, told Der Tagesspiegel. “You know she’s going to die, but you’re still sad when the time comes.”

There aren’t many new ideas in Wagenknecht’s political platform, though the way they are combined could be novel. Her economic plans are sprinkled with conspiratorial references to foreign monopolies, and she calls for a substantial increase in the minimum wage, but at their core her proposals are broadly similar to other centre-left policies. Her rhetoric about immigration, however, comes straight from the far-right AfD’s playbook. “There shouldn’t be any neighbourhoods,” she said in a 2021 interview, “where natives are in the minority.”

Wagenknecht’s politics clearly resonate with the German public. A recent survey of German voters found that 14% would vote for a Wagenknecht party, putting it just one point behind the governing Social Democrats (SPD) and two points ahead of the Green party. It speaks to the breadth of Wagenknecht’s coalition that, if initial polls are to be believed, she would take votes not only from her own former political home, but also from the centre-right CDU, the left-leaning Greens and the pro-business FDP. Most of all, though, Wagenknecht is trying to appeal to a section of AfD voters. Much of the party’s success in recent elections, she claims, comes from Germans who “don’t vote for the AfD because they’re rightwing. They vote for the AfD because they’re angry.” Wagenknecht’s attempts to siphon off the AfD’s protest voters currently seems like the only viable plan to mitigate the far-right party’s electoral success.

The reaction of the AfD has been surprisingly muted. There must be some disappointment: Björn Höcke, the party’s chair in the eastern state of Thuringia, has been practically begging her to join for months. But even if initial estimates are correct, the AfD would still be left with a compelling 17% electoral share, putting it second only to the CDU. Moreover, Wagenknecht’s populist, anti-immigrant rhetoric goes a long way towards legitimising the AfD’s own favourite electoral strategy. More troubling yet, if her party is as successful as early polls indicate, there will be fewer paths left to form majority governments without either the AfD or Wagenknecht, at a state or federal level. “A truly alternative left,” Höcke said in a recent statement, “could have an important function in the reconfiguration of the German party system.” Wagenknecht may take votes away from the AfD, but she may also make it possible for it to take political power if coalition partners find themselves forced to choose between two populist parties.

Germany’s main political parties are weak. The electorate is divided and governing coalitions, which have so far worked to keep the AfD out, have been increasingly divisive and ineffectual as a result. Infighting and incompetence have prevented the government from fulfilling many of its electoral promises. It is hardly the first to struggle: Germany’s politicians have been promising to streamline its often cumbersome bureaucracy, improve the country’s technological infrastructure and foster a more robust tech sector for decades. But political squabbles and a lack of imagination have prevented any meaningful change. Now, with a recession looming, resentment about the ineptitude of the political class is likely to grow even more pronounced.

Wagenknecht’s platform is still developing, but it isn’t likely to be all that different from the other parties’. The core governmental promises of better social services, a stronger economy and less bureaucratic hassle are shared across the political spectrum. The AfD and the Greens both campaign on increasing funding for education. Wagenknecht will, too. It won’t be surprising if she issues invectives against immigrants and climate activists.

But she’s hardly the only one who has figured out that you don’t necessarily need sound policy solutions or real leadership if you play on people’s resentments. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, recently announced his plans to “deport on a grand scale”, while the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, has gone on a veritable tirade, accusing Berlin neighbourhoods of not being adequately German and demanding that new immigrants to Germany declare their allegiance to Israel. With the world increasingly unsettled by violence in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as by the ongoing series of climate crises, German politics is making a sharp turn in a nationalist-populist direction. And Sahra Wagenknecht could soon be accelerating that journey.

Source: In Germany, the anti-immigrant left is on the rise. Will it hold back the far right – or help it?

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , ,

Canada’s ‘leaky bucket’ of immigration? More newcomers are choosing to leave Canada for greener pastures

2023/11/01 Leave a comment

Flip side of immigration levels, the number of immigrants leaving. Important new analysis:

More recent immigrants are leaving Canada for greener pastures, a new study says.

The findings suggest the phenomenon is especially prevalent between four and seven years after newcomers have received their permanent residence.

Although the number and ratio of people leaving each year varied, over the course of 25 years, accumulatively about 20 per cent of immigrants in each cohort ultimately left Canada, said the report, “The Leaky Bucket: A Study of Immigrant Retention Trends in Canada.”

However, the so-called onward migration rate spiked to 31 per cent in 2019 when 67,000 departures were reported.

“While the fairy tale of Canada as a land of opportunity still holds for many newcomers, this study points to burgeoning disillusionment,” said the report released Tuesday by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) and the Conference Board of Canada.

“After giving Canada a try, growing numbers of immigrants are saying ‘no thanks,’ and moving on.”

As Canadians turn their attention to the number of immigrants welcomed to Canada amid worries over housing costs, access to health care and other government services, the report sheds light on what researchers call “onward migration,” where people leave their home country, settle in a second and then move again.

Based on the 2021 longitudinal immigration database, which links immigration data with tax data, the study tracks immigrants’ departures by using their lack of fiscal activity, such as income, as a proxy for an individual’s presence or absence in Canada.

Those included in the study were granted permanent residence between 1982 and 2018, and must have been at least 18 years of age when they came to Canada and filed income taxes here at least once since their arrival.

Averaging across each of the 1982-2018 cohorts, it found that onward migration in the first year sits just below the average annual rate of 0.9 per cent. However, the rate rises quickly and peaks around year five, with an average of 1.33 per cent of the arrival cohort leaving that year. It then declines steadily, falling back below 0.9 per cent by year 11.

However, the annual first-year onward migration rate spiked from 0.8 per cent in 2016 to 1.18 per cent in 2019, representing a significant surge compared to the average 0.9 per cent.

“The trend has been toward an increased onward migration rate,” said 18-page report. “More recent cohorts have sustained elevated onward migration rates for a greater number of years. This has led to higher cumulative onward migration for recently arrived cohorts.”

The extent of onward migration does ebb and flow. Over a 15-year period, those who arrived in the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the ones who came in 2004 — the last cohort where the 15-year post-arrival data was available — all had a higher rate of departures.

The average cumulative onward migration rate, for example, was 18 per cent for cohorts who arrived in the 1980s, compared to the 21 per cent among those who were granted permanent residence in the first half of the 1990s.

The report findings are in line with a conservative estimate by Statistics Canada that found 15 to 20 per cent of immigrants leave the country within 10 years after arrival and a recent Star story that found more recent immigrants are contemplating leaving.

Generally speaking, said the ICC and Conference Board report, the benefits of immigration can only be realized over time, when newcomers stay, thrive and contribute to the country.

“Retention should be a key performance indicator for Canada’s immigration strategy, given the central role that immigration is meant to play in supporting population and economic growth,” it said.

Researchers agreed the longitudinal immigration database is not perfect, because it wasn’t designed to measure onward migration and may not capture those who don’t file income taxes for whatever reason and who are not linked properly with the tax data.

There could be many reasons why newcomers choose to leave Canada, whether it’s due to challenges they face in their economic integration, their lack of sense of belonging, opportunities arising in other countries or even individual or family preferences.

“Many of these are beyond the control of Canadian policymakers,” the report said. “But policymakers can influence immigrants’ experiences in Canada.”

It recommends the federal government closely monitor onward migration among newcomers, invest in settlement services and programs to support immigrant integration, help employers hire and retain immigrant workers, and put money in infrastructure to meet population growth.

Source: Canada’s ‘leaky bucket’ of immigration? More newcomers are choosing to leave Canada for greener pastures

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Keller: The Liberals broke the immigration system. But better is always possible

2023/11/01 Leave a comment

Particularly scathing commentary in the Globe, calling for lowering of permanent resident levels but silent on temporary residents:

This week, when it releases its new immigration targets, the Trudeau government has an opportunity to begin rethinking immigration policy.

For the past eight years, the Liberal plan has been about sharply and steadily increasing permanent immigration, while enabling even sharper increases in temporary immigration – with the two interconnected streams powered by huge jumps in the number of foreign students.

Why? The government’s reasons are a combination of faith and politics.

Faith that accelerating the country’s population growth will somehow spark higher per-capita economic growth and higher living standards – a faith belied by economic theory and evidence.

The Liberals also wanted to politically anchor themselves to the left of the Conservatives on the issue, and perhaps plant the seeds of a nascent wedge. This even though the Conservatives, who never miss an opportunity to attack the Liberals over so much as a misplaced comma, have always studiously avoided criticizing Liberal immigration plans.

The Liberal approach to immigration is having major economic consequences, many of them negative. Yet for years, there has been no national conversation critical of the Liberal approach. The topic is taboo. That’s what happens with issues of faith.

So let’s talk about what a rational immigration system would look like: It would start with acknowledging that the long-standing principles, goals and methods of the Canadian immigration system, created long before the Trudeau government came into office, are sound.

The key principle is that immigration should be designed to benefit Canada economically. The main goal should be choosing immigrants who offer the greatest benefit to Canada, by being mostly more educated and more skilled than the average Canadian, and thus likely to be more productive and earn higher wages. The right method for selecting these economic immigrants is the points system.

A government that wanted maximum benefits for Canada would have taken the above and doubled down. Instead, the Liberals have spent the past eight years watering it down.

In so doing, the Liberals have undermined the country’s long-standing pro-immigration consensus. Recent polls suggest that somewhere between a plurality and a majority of Canadians want lower levels of immigration.

But that does not make Canadians “anti-immigration.” It just means they’re questioning the Liberal government’s immigration policy. Canadians are no more anti-immigration than someone who declines dessert after a hot-dog-eating contest should be accused of suddenly having become anti-food.

Last week in Toronto, a shared bed for rent was advertised for $900 a month. Not a room in a shared apartment. A shared bed in a shared room. Half of a 60-inch-wide mattress. Yours for just $10,800 a year.

This is happening in one of the world’s most bonkers housing markets, where a record shortage of places to live is meeting an immigration policy that celebrated a record of more than a million people coming to the country last year. This year’s numbers are likely to be higher; in the first six months of 2023, the temporary-resident stream alone brought in nearly 700,000 people.

This is happening even as the Bank of Canada’s high-interest-rate policy is trying to slow inflation by reducing economic activity, with one of the main transmission mechanisms being discouraging borrowing for new housing construction.

An immigration policy based on faith says there’s no connection between a sudden population surge and the price of rent. Basic arithmetic has other ideas.

Ottawa should lower its immigration targets, at least for the next few years. The current target for 2025, half a million new permanent immigrants, is nearly double the level of 2015.

Canada was not anti-immigration in 2015. Canada was not anti-immigration under the Liberal governments of Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin and Pierre Trudeau, when immigration was even lower. And Canada will not be anti-immigration next year if, in response to facts not faith, immigration is a bit less than this year.

Next step: Ottawa has to get back to properly using the points system to select the most highly skilled, highly educated and highly remunerated economic immigrants.

What has instead happened under eight years of Liberal government is that the temporary-immigration stream has exploded. Most of the people in that stream are coming to flip burgers, stock shelves and deliver food. Big business loves this endless supply of minimum-wage workers. The rest of us should be less enthused.

One of Canada’s biggest problems, and a growing drag on our living standards, is low productivity growth. Canadian businesses don’t invest enough in new technology and innovation – the things that spell more goods and services produced for each hour of work. A bottomless barrel of low-wage labour further discourages Canadian business from making those capital investments.

And a lot of low-wage labour is arriving through the booming student visa stream – which has been quietly converted from a selective program for luring the best and brightest to a no-limits scheme allowing universities and especially colleges to, in effect, sell Canadian citizenship. This, too, has to be scaled back and smartened up.

Better is always possible, as someone once said. Hint, hint.

Source: The Liberals broke the immigration system. But better is always possible

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

HESA: Canada’s First National Minister of Higher Education

2023/11/01 Leave a comment

Usual insightful analysis by Alex Usher on the planned changes to study permits announced by Minister Miller, particularly the risks associated with rating education institutions and “calibrating” the PGWP in line with labour market needs, given lack of IRCC expertise in these areas, not to mention the operational challenges:

Last Friday’s, Marc Miller, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Canadian Citizenship (IRCC), announced three changes to the International Student Visa program (link here).  You may have seen a small news alert about it (see here or here).  But it seems that almost nobody caught the full import of the announcement. 

The announcement started out ok, with Miller again swatting down rumours of a cap on international student visas and comparing the idea to “performing surgery with a hammer”.  Miller then announced – or re-announced, or semi-announced, depending on your point of view – three things.

First, starting December 1, 2023, every designated learning institution (DLI) will be required to confirm every applicant’s letter of acceptance directly with IRCC.  This is good.  It’s what pretty much every other country in the international student business has been doing for a couple of decades, and the only reason we haven’t done it before is Ottawa’s catastrophic inability to undertake IT projects (plus, you know, sheer bureaucratic inertia).  Assuming they can launch on time – and I wouldn’t bet the farm on it – top marks, 10/10

Second, the Government re-iterated its desire to launch its deeply under-theorized plan to rank and rate institutions, whose utter incoherence I outlined back here.  The difference is that they’ve changed the language from “trusted institutions” to “recognized institutions” and the implementation date has been moved back to next fall, which gives us all a few extra months to convince the feds that this idea remains infeasible.

So far, so boring.  But pay attention: the third element is a big one.  I’ll quote it verbatim, while adding emphasis where appropriate:

In the coming months, IRCC will complete an assessment of Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Program criteria and begin introducing reforms to better calibrate it to meet the needs of the Canadian labour market, as well as regional and Francophone immigration goals.

Well, now.  Let’s think about how this might work. 

“Calibrating” the PGWP program with the labour market would require two things.  First, it requires IRCC to decide what skills the labour market “needs” (or, more formally, which occupations will be “in demand” over the coming years.  The feds sort of have this through ESDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS), although its worth remembering that this system has its limitations (remember when the system claimed that “university professors” was an occupation facing imminent shortages?  Good times.)  And of course, COPS was just one way of determining future skills shortages: other methodologies, like the one developed by the former Brookfield Institute (now TMU/Dais) can provide quite different answers. 

But that’s not really the hard part here.  We have a lot of different projection systems, but the government of Canada has never used any for the purpose of policy implementation.  In this case, the government would basically have to have enough faith in whatever methodology they pick to say “yes” or “no” to individuals or institutions over something as important as who gets into the country and who does not.  It can model itself on some other countries – Australia’s National Skills Commission maintains a list of in-demand skills for immigration and education purposes,– but it’s a fundamentally new role for this ministry – or indeed anyone in the federal government.  I have my doubts it will go smoothly.  No, the hard part is working out how exactly to link labour market information to the PGWP program.  And I am pretty sure it is going to be something along the lines of “occupation X, meet program Y”: that is, PGWP will only be available for specific programs of study.

This ought to be…interesting.

I mean, the feds’ logic is clear.  What they really want to do is strike hard at rural/small-town Ontario colleges offering loads of “Global Business” diplomas through PPP arrangements with private colleges in the GTA.  since the areas near these schools are the epicentre of the housing shortage that’s currently affecting southern Ontario and tanking Liberal re-election projects.  Nobody thinks the diplomas actually have much educational or social value – and the public perception of them is that they are a backdoor route to immigration (personally, I disagree, I think they are a front-door to immigration, but a back-door to a Temporary Foreign Worker Program, but that’s as may be).  So why not use federal immigration rules to wipe them out?

Well, for one, it’s not 100% clear how the Government intends to link data on occupations to data on programs in a way which is defensible.  At the more technical end of the spectrum, occupations and programs line-up reasonably well, but in humanities, social sciences, business and indeed a lot of the biological sciences, the line from program to employment is a lot looser, and it’s not clear how a crosswalk can be driven.  So, while it should be easy enough to “prove” that Global Business doesn’t have many direct routes to the labour market, it’s not obvious (to me at least) how you can do that in a way that doesn’t sideswipe every faculty of arts and business in the country.

In brief, I foresee both a titanic amount of lobbying around what kinds of methodology will be used to determine “in-demand” skills and a titanic amount of chicanery as institutions re-classify their programming to meet whatever rules and standards the government eventually chooses to set for the PGWP program.   In fact, I think you can guarantee that as of Friday, these two items right now are at the top of the to-do list of every non-GTA college in Ontario, because these new rules have the potential to disrupt their largest income source and drive them to the wall, financially.

And remember, all of this potential change and financial consequences is being driven by the feds, not the provinces.  Specifically, it’s being driven by the freaking Ministry of Immigration, whose understanding of the higher education system might charitably be described as “diddly-squat”.  And yet, despite this lack of institutional expertise, right now Marc Miller is the closest thing Canada has ever had to a National Minister of Higher Education.  Through his unworkable ranking system, he’s claiming the right to distinguish “good” from “bad” institutions, and through the PGWP revisions he’s claiming the power of life and death over hundreds – maybe thousands – of university and college programs across the country.  It’s both unprecedented and absurd.

Provinces only have themselves to blame for this: whatever power over higher education the feds now have exists because of the provincial cheeseparing that drove institutions to seek international students in the first place.  No international student boom, no terrifying leverage placed in IRCC’s hands.

What a country.

Source: Canada’s First National Minister of Higher Education

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , ,

Encore trop d’obstacles pour les immigrants dans l’industrie de la construction

2023/11/01 Leave a comment

Of note. Likely similar difficulties in other provinces with the exception of language:

Difficultés avec la langue, complexité des démarches, problèmes liés au statut temporaire. Même en pleine pénurie de main-d’oeuvre, des immigrants qualifiés doivent affronter de nombreux obstacles qui freinent leur intégration dans l’industrie de la construction. C’est ce que relève une étude menée entre 2021 et 2022 auprès de quelque 250 répondants — immigrants, employeurs et acteurs du milieu, comme des syndicats — effectuée par des organismes de recherche-action affiliés à l’Université de Montréal.

Tout juste avant la pandémie, la Commission de la construction du Québec (CCQ), en partenariat avec la Table de concertation des organismes au service des personnes réfugiées et immigrants et Conseil emploi métropole, avait décidé d’explorer de plus près la relation des immigrants avec cette industrie hautement réglementée. La CCQ a donc demandé au Centre de recherche et de partage des savoirs InterActions et à l’équipe de recherche ERASME d’en dresser le portrait.

Un portrait qui pourrait notamment nourrir les échanges actuels sur la réforme de la loi R-20, pilotée par le ministre du Travail, Jean Boulet, au moment où les associations patronales demandent plus de flexibilité au milieu. Selon les plus récentes données de l’Institut de la statistique du Québec, il y avait somme toute peu d’immigrants dans l’industrie de la construction en 2017, à peine 8,2 % de la main-d’oeuvre, ce qui place le secteur au 13e rang sur 14 parmi les autres industries, telles que le transport et l’entreposage (22,8 %) ou l’hébergement et la restauration (17,8 %).

« Mon premier constat c’était : “Mon Dieu que c’est compliqué pour les immigrants !” », a déclaré Marie-Jeanne Blain, professeure d’anthropologie et chercheuse principale de cette étude menée en collaboration avec Lucio Castracani.

À commencer par la lourdeur des démarches de reconnaissance professionnelle, un important frein à l’accès au marché du travail. « Savoir où il faut aller chercher la correspondance de mon diplôme… Savoir quelles cartes il faut pour travailler. Pourquoi il faut des cartes ? Tout ça, c’est compliqué à comprendre au début », relate Jérémie, un immigrant charpentier-menuisier qui témoigne dans l’étude.

Pour Mme Blain, ce n’est pas l’information qui manque, mais l’accompagnement personnalisé. « Par exemple, il y a plusieurs voies d’entrée pour faire reconnaître ses acquis. Juste de savoir par laquelle on passe, c’est compliqué », affirme-t-elle. « Ça n’existe pas, une personne-ressource spécialisée pour les immigrants en construction. »

Difficultés et découragement

Toute cette complexité semble aussi décourager certaines entreprises, qui cherchent de la main-d’oeuvre prête à travailler sur-le-champ. « Il y a des employeurs qui voudraient que le travailleur soit opérationnel demain matin », dit la chercheuse. Et parfois, souligne-t-elle, après des mois de démarches pour recruter un travailleur à l’étranger, celui-ci peut se voir refuser son permis de travail par un agent des services frontaliers à l’aéroport. « On a eu des cas où des employeurs avaient embauché cinq travailleurs, mais il n’y en a que deux qui ont réussi à passer », dit-elle. Tant pour l’employeur que pour le travailleur migrant, la prise de risques est grande, ajoute-t-elle.

D’où la recommandation de simplifier les démarches pour le recrutement à l’étranger et d’offrir des services d’accompagnement aux entreprises. « Pour l’agriculture, je crois qu’ils ont des visas spéciaux », a mentionné dans le rapport Jean-Philippe, un employeur qui a tenté — en vain — de recruter en Amérique latine. « Je ne sais même pas si ça existe pour la construction, mais je suis sûr que c’est plus simple en agriculture qu’en construction. »

Les travailleurs temporaires sont quant à eux à la merci des délais et des procédures pour l’obtention et le renouvellement de leur permis de travail. Certains programmes, comme la Reconnaissance des acquis et des compétences, sont moins accessibles pour des immigrants non permanents, qui doivent souvent faire une croix sur leur reconnaissance professionnelle.

Le statut temporaire peut aussi ouvrir la porte à des abus. Recruté par une entreprise de Chaudière-Appalaches comme travailleur temporaire avec un permis fermé, Carlos, un soudeur d’origine mexicaine, s’est rendu compte que lui et d’autres collègues ayant le même statut étaient moins bien payés que les autres soudeurs, bien qu’ils effectuaient exactement les mêmes tâches.

« On a eu un cas d’un travailleur qu’[un employeur] avait fait venir d’Amérique latine et qui, une fois arrivé ici, a été mis à pied parce qu’il ne parlait pas français », souligne Marie-Jeanne Blain.

Le français, facteur discriminant

La langue française a d’ailleurs été pointée comme un élément influençant énormément l’intégration d’un travailleur migrant. « Ça fait consensus. La communication joue un grand rôle », a indiqué la chercheuse. C’est d’abord le cas pour les employeurs, pour qui la maîtrise du français se présente comme une question de santé et de sécurité au travail.

Quant aux immigrants, la non-maîtrise de la langue de Molière peut être un « facteur discriminant », tant pour la reconnaissance des compétences — la traduction des documents, notamment, coûte très cher — que l’accès et le maintien à l’emploi et l’avancement professionnel. « [Elle] peut entraîner un processus de marginalisation professionnelle », révèle l’étude, qui documente des cas où des immigrants allophones n’ont pas été en mesure d’intégrer le secteur réglementé et protégé par des syndicats.

Diego, un résident permanent péruvien, raconte avoir voulu profiter du fait qu’il avait son certificat de compétence pour sortir de l’industrie « non régie » après avoir fait une formation en santé et sécurité de l’ASP Construction. Il en a été incapable en raison de son niveau de français. « Ils me disent […] : “Si je t’envoie faire un mur, ou faire une coupe ou quelque chose… Tu ne vas pas savoir comment faire” », témoigne-t-il dans l’étude.

Pedro, lui, dit ne jamais s’être senti intégré dans son équipe de couvreurs. « Tu peux avoir beaucoup de connaissances, mais si tu ne connais pas la langue, ils ne vont jamais bien t’intégrer. Ça sera toujours un enjeu. »

Une trentaine de recommandations découlent du rapport commandité par la CCQ, allant d’un accompagnement individualisé pour les immigrants jusqu’à la création de ponts entre les divers acteurs, ceux de l’industrie, mais aussi les institutions publiques et les organismes communautaires. « Je ne mets pas mes lunettes roses, mais j’ai été agréablement surprise de constater la bonne volonté des partenaires et de voir à quel point les employeurs voulaient bien faire les choses », conclut Marie-Jeanne Blain, qui espère que ses travaux pourront inspirer la réforme prochaine de la loi.

Source: Encore trop d’obstacles pour les immigrants dans l’industrie de la construction

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

← Older posts

Newer posts →