Sharma: Reflection on the 2027 Immigration Levels Plan: Substance Welcome, Presentation Opaque

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

One of the better overviews I have seen and agree with his summary conclusion. Same point on unnecessary obfuscation:

…In short, the 2027 plan clears long-standing backlogs for workers and certain humanitarian populations already in Canada while holding new temporary arrivals steady. The method of announcement, however, continues a pattern of selective presentation that attempts to obfuscate the true scale of permanent-resident admissions.

Source: Reflection on the 2027 Immigration Levels Plan: Substance Welcome, Presentation Opaque

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John Ivison: A Liberal spending spree, again [immigration]

2026/11/09 Leave a comment

Nails the transparency question even if the government in one sense is being transparent about the one-time numbers. Don’t understand why the government doesn’t simply add a line to the tables that includes the 200,000 (and previous year one-time number) along with a total. Clearer for all and avoids some of the sometimes puerile criticism.

From a policy perspective, there is a legitimate distinction between those already here and those not, and an equally legitimate debate over the numbers being regularized into Permanent Residents:

…After the pandemic, the Trudeau Liberals opened the floodgates to temporary foreign workers. By 2023, there were 971,815 in Canada. The government is cutting the annual target for temporary residents to 370,000 in the period 2027–29.

At the same time, it aims to reduce the number of permanent residents from 471,820 in 2023 to 380,000 annually in the coming years.

The problem is, the way it plans to reduce the temporary resident number is to allow around 200,000 of them to become permanent residents. Given the lower-than-usual education and experience profile of the temporary workers, that means an immigration system that was once the envy of the world will accept fewer than 200,000 of the best and brightest from around the world in 2027. Canada has a fertility rate of 1.26 children per woman, and its population is aging (one in five is now over 65). But nearly half of all voters say there are already too many immigrants coming into Canada.

It would take a brave government to raise immigration levels in the face of such hostility, and this government has just revealed the limits of its courage….

Source: John Ivison: A Liberal spending spree, again

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Carney government holds immigration targets steady, allows 200,000 temporary residents to apply for permanent status

2026/11/06 Leave a comment

Some of the initial reporting:

The Carney government will hold immigration levels steady in the coming three years, while also announcing it will add 200,000 permanent residence spots in 2027 for temporary migrants already established in Canada.

Despite speculation that the government was ready to reverse course after two years of steep immigration cuts, its budget released Thursday said 380,000 people would be admitted as permanent residents in this fiscal year, the same number as last year.

The economic class will make up 64.4 per cent of the targets, followed by those under family reunification (21.3 per cent) and the rest as resettled refugees, protected persons and on humanitarian grounds.

The budget said that level would be maintained through 2029, and that the number of temporary residents, including students and workers, will be held at 370,000 for the next three years.

After a decade of record-high intake targets under Justin Trudeau that contributed to a housing crisis, strained health care and eroded public confidence in immigration, Ottawa in 2024 started slashing the number of new permanent and temporary residents it would admit and tightening the rules for those already here.

The Liberal government has pledged to reduce the share of temporary residents to five per cent of the country’s population by the end of 2027. Yet, it still stood at 6.7 per cent as of July, with many stuck in the bottleneck for permanent residence, hanging on to the hope to stay for good.

Under tremendous pressure to fulfil that campaign promise, the new plan includes a one-time initiative to help as many as 200,000 people already living in Canada transition to permanent residence in 2027 — equally split between the worker and humanitarian streams. This will be on top of the 380,000 permanent resident targets in 2027.

“I would characterize that as an administrative clearing of the decks,” said Rick Lamanna of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association. “These people in most cases have been here for quite a while, living in this temporary, suspended existence. They’ve been vetted. It’s good for them, it’s good for Canada.”

This also means Canada will see one of the largest admissions of permanent residents in history, totalling 580,000, said Ottawa-based immigration lawyer Cédric Marin.

“These are not new admissions,” he noted. “They’re people that are currently inside Canada, that are employed and (some) have a house. But it’s almost a way, in my view, to reduce the temporary resident population that they set themselves.”

Under the one-time measure, provinces will be able to identify workers who have already applied for permanent residence under select federal immigration programs, including the Atlantic immigration program and others that are closed to new applications such as the programs for start-up entrepreneurs, self-employed persons, agri-food workers and home care workers.

With the additional spaces, officials said they also hope to process all remaining applications under the permanent residence pathways for temporary residents from Hong Kong and those in the Ukraine family reunification program.

While this effort is welcomed, the Migrant Rights Network said the 200,000 additional permanent resident spots are a drop in the bucket, given the 2.15 million people who held work or study permits in Canada as of August 2026.

Source: Carney government holds immigration targets steady, allows 200,000 temporary residents to apply for permanent status

…Two cohorts, each made up of 100,000 temporary residents, will be given priority for permanent residency. A workers’ cohort will consist of those who applied for permanent residency through special immigration pathways such as the Start-up Visa Program, Home Care Worker pilot programs, Atlantic Immigration Program and the Agri-Food Pilot.

A humanitarian cohort will process all remaining applications in the Ukraine family reunification pathway and the Hong Kong permanent residents pathway. It will also prioritize permanent residency for spouses and children already living in Canada.

Many of the immigration pathways mentioned were suspended by the government in late 2025 because of processing backlogs. Last year’s immigration-levels plan also introduced an initiative to transition 115,000 temporary residents already in Canada to permanent status as well….

Source: Budget 2026: Ottawa to grant permanent residency to 200,000 temporary residents

January-June year-to-date summary (will be updating once third quarter numbers out):

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Rempel Garner: Immigration levels must go way down, not up.

2026/10/23 1 Comment

Pre-levels plan political positioning, principles with few details, no numbers and lots on the failures of the Trudeau government.

Closing line of interest sounds more NDP than CPC: “It’s time for Mark Carney to deliver an immigration levels plan that works for people, not just for corporations:”

…First, bring the numbers down.

Bring them down so unemployed and underemployed Canadians get first crack at Canadian jobs. The Liberals love to talk about buying Canadian. It’s time they started talking about hiring Canadian and training Canadians.

Bring down levels so housing starts can catch up and rents can come down.

Bring down levels so our hospitals and family doctors aren’t asked to do the impossible.

And bring down levels so immigration policy goes back to what it should be: helping newcomers succeed and integrate, not handing corporations a tool to drive down wages.

Second, restore integrity to the system.

That means swiftly removing the large number of people who are in Canada with no legal right to be here. It means making sure social benefits go to people who genuinely need protection, not to those filing bogus asylum claims. It means stronger security, criminal and identity checks on every applicant. And it means ending lenient sentences handed to non-citizens convicted of serious crimes so they can avoid deportation.

It also means cracking down on fraud, from fake documents to study permit scams to the buying and selling of job offers. My colleague Brad Redekopp will describe one recent program change that is an example of a step in the wrong direction….

It’s time for Mark Carney to deliver an immigration levels plan that works for people, not just for corporations.

Source: Immigration levels must go way down, not up.

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Canada is about to announce its new immigration targets. Here’s what we know and don’t know

2026/10/20 Leave a comment

We will know soon enough to see the trade-offs:

…Since becoming prime minister, Carney has pledged to reduce the share of temporary workers and international students to five per cent of the population by the end of 2027 while maintaining permanent resident admission to under one per cent of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027.

Currently, the share of temporary resident population still stands at 6.7 per cent of the country’s nearly 42 million population. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s hands are tied in shifting more temporary residents to permanent status if it sticks to Carney’s one per cent commitment, meaning the upper target for permanent residents can’t go over 418,000.

Little leeway to raise immigration

There is little wiggle room unless Ottawa finds an innovative way to account for the numbers. It has before. Last year, it rolled out two one-time initiatives to grant permanent residence to 115,000 people with protection status and 33,000 foreign workers in small communities over two years, but the groups were counted on top of the 2026 permanent resident target.

“They’re going to be holding at least relatively close to their 380,000 projection,” said Calgary-based immigration lawyer Mark Holthe. “That five per cent temporary resident target is what’s driving a large portion of this plan. They made a campaign promise and they are going to hit it no matter what.”

Last month, the C.D. Howe Institute, a Toronto-based think tank, recommended an annual admission of 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, and further reductions to 350,000 in 2028, and 340,000 in 2029. It said the five per cent target for temporary residents should be treated as a ceiling and come down to three per cent in the medium and long term.

Managing temporary resident population is not straightforward. Officials can cap new study and work permits to control intakes and transition temporary residents to permanent status, but it takes resources to track and remove people with expired permits.

“The government hasn’t been able to reduce this (population) significantly,” said Parisa Mahboubi, an economist who chairs C.D. Howe’s immigration targets council. “We are going to see a large share of transitions from TR to PR … The government has greater control over that.”

Larissa Bezo, president and CEO of the Canadian Bureau for International Education, doubts that Ottawa will need to raise international student intakes since it didn’t even manage to fill the quotas it set.

“The challenge really has shifted from perhaps managing growth to a period of where we are now having to rebuild confidence,” she noted.

“The larger issue from my perspective is what happens several years from now. Fewer students arriving today means fewer graduates, fewer researchers, fewer health-care workers, fewer engineers, fewer entrepreneurs and fewer permanent residents in the future.”

Priorities and fine-tuning programs

Diab has been clear about her plan to bring in even more French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec, raising this demographic’s share of the total annual admissions from nine per cent in 2026 to 9.5 per cent in 2027, 10.5 per cent in 2028 and 12 per cent in 2029.

She has also hinted at maintaining the share of permanent residents in economic class at around 64 per cent in 2027 and 2028, while working with provinces and prioritizing talent in key sectors and industries like health care, emerging technologies and skilled trades.

Earlier this year, the Immigration Department held consultations on proposed reforms to the skilled immigration programs as well as the way points are awarded to candidates for their education, work experience and language skills among other factors. It has also asked for public input in setting economic priorities and selection categories for its targeted talent draws.

Stein Monteiro of Signal49 Research said he does not expect drastic changes to immigration policy direction, rather, more fine-tuning of current programs to better align the system with economic needs.

“There’s a lot of other things they’re trying to do aside from the levels,” said Monteiro, lead immigration researcher at the independent research organization, formerly known as The Conference Board of Canada.

“They’re trying to maintain stability by streamlining programs, cutting unnecessary niche programs and then improving on the application process … (which) makes it more predictable for what’s coming out on the other end of the immigration system.”

Targeting high-skilled, high-wage immigrants

C.D. Howe’s Mahboubi said immigration is more than just a numbers game; the type of migrants Canada brings in matters. The system should focus on welcoming high-skilled, high-wage immigrants over low-skilled, non-agricultural temporary foreign workers, she noted.

“We want high-quality students and higher-skilled workers to support our economy,” she said. “There are still more reforms and more oversight needed. We are not there yet.”

Over the past year, Ottawa has stopped accepting applications for immigration programs for start-up entrepreneurs, home care workers, privately sponsored refugees for resettlement (Group of Five), and skilled refugees and displaced people. Few expect they will reopen next year.

“Their focus is on high-wage individuals, so any new program that they’re looking at creating or rolling out are going to target those individuals,” said Holthe, the Calgary lawyer. “Our professionals and executives and people making over $100,000 have no pathways to permanent residence. That’s part of the reason why they’re making changes.”…

Source: Canada is about to announce its new immigration targets. Here’s what we know and don’t know

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Carney government’s new immigration plan: Who wins, and who is losing out

2025/11/07 Leave a comment

Good overview in the Star.

One slight of hand manoeuvre in the plan that some have noted is that the overall number of 380,000 permanent resident admissions does not include the one-time initiatives (115,000 for asylum seekers, 33,000 for Temporary Foreign Worker transition) over 2026 and 2027, which would bring the number for those two years to around 450,000.

Legitimate way to handle transition but we will need to see how it works out in practice:

Here are the big winners in the new levels plan:

Provincial immigration programs 

Although the overall permanent resident spots for the economic class have only gone up slightly from 232,150 this year to 244,700 in 2028, the provinces and territories will see their share of that pie growing from 55,000 to 92,500 via the provincial nomination programs (PNP).

The program allows provincial governments to screen and select prospective permanent residents who best meet their regional economic and labour market needs. 

“We don’t know how the provinces are going to allocate those PNPs, nor do we know the categories and occupations of the draws,” said Ottawa-based immigration lawyer Cedric Marin, who speaks on behalf of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association. “But clearly, it’s a win.”

French-speaking immigration applicants outside Quebec

The new plan will continue to boost the levels of French-speaking permanent residents settling outside of Quebec from 29,325 in 2025 to 35,175 in 2028. The increase may seem small but will ultimately bring up the percentage of newcomers proficient in French from 8.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent of the annual permanent resident intakes.

This move is not without controversy as French-speaking immigrants face challenges in accessing services and finding jobs settling in English-dominant provinces and territories. Under the skilled immigration selection system, proficiency in French itself has given francophone candidates an advantage over other skilled candidates.

“What we see is that French speakers outside Quebec are able to immigrate and have a much higher chance of success than those in health care, in STEM, those in other occupations,” said Marin, a francophone from Ottawa.

Protected persons who’ve been granted asylum

The Immigration Department plans to launch a one-time initiative to grant permanent residence over two years to 115,000 people who have been given asylum but are caught in processing backlogs in Canada. Officials said this number is in addition to the permanent resident targets in 2026 and 2027.

“The government was right to provide a response to the thousands of people to whom Canada has offered protection but no permanent status,” said Diana Gallego, president of the Canadian Council for Refugees. “It is not only life-changing for them, but also good for Canadian society as a whole.”

But there are people who lose out in the plan:

Temporary residents already in Canada

The Immigration Department plans to implement a one-time measure to “accelerate” the transition of 33,000 work permit holders to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027. However, as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, slightly more than three million non-permanent residents were in Canada.

Many of these temporary residents have worked, studied and invested in their lives here; they have been crushed by the reduced permanent resident levels and could run out of legal status any time.

“The concern I’m expressing has to do with the large number of people already here and the fact that we haven’t actually made a plan for them,” said Queen’s University immigration law professor Sharry Aiken. 

Refugees abroad awaiting resettlement to Canada

The federal government and community groups sponsor refugees abroad under Canada’s resettlement program. The new immigration plan will see the annual quotas for privately sponsored refugees drop by 30 per cent from 23,000 this year to 16,000 in 2026, while government-assisted refugees are reduced from 15,250 to 13,250.

The Canadian Council for Refugees said more than 90,000 refugees are currently in the private sponsorship backlog alone, and the lower quotas mean a wait time of nearly six years.

Permanent residence applicants on humanitarian grounds

Ottawa has offered temporary refuge to Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion, Afghans escaping the Taliban, Hong Kongers seeking freedom from Beijing and Sudanese affected by their two-year-old civil war. Many are only eligible to stay permanent on humanitarian grounds.

The new plan slashes the number of spots from 10,000 to 6,900 in 2026, and 5,000 for 2027 and 2028. “As you can imagine, in this context, they are losers,” said Marin.

Source: Carney government’s new immigration plan: Who wins, and who is losing out

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More commentary on reduced immigration levels

2024/11/02 Leave a comment

More of the commentary that I found interesting and relevant:

The Line: Dispatch from The Front Lines: Have a great trip, Jen! And where are they moving? Right now, public opinion is probably fairly reasonably grounded in reality. We think it would be broadly true today to say that Canadians still see value in immigration in the abstract, and remain good at welcoming newcomers into their own communities. We suspect that most of us have direct relationships with immigrants, and have better lives for those relationships. But we are very worried. Many of the problems that our recently unchecked immigration rates have caused or (more fairly) contributed to — including overwhelmed social services and the housing crisis — are going to continue getting worse for a number of years, since so much is already baked in. This is scary, and could mean that we see anti-immigration sentiment evolve explicitly into anti-immigrant sentiment. That would take what we have today, an embarrassing public-policy failure, and turn it into a genuine social nightmare, one from which it could take many years to recover, as newcomers pay the price for our policy failures and report back home that Canada is a place to avoid at all costs.

So, great. It’s nice to have something to look forward to. Right?

But there was one other issue that jumped out at us after the announcement this week. Both Prime Minister Trudeau and Immigration Minister Marc Miller made all-too political acknowledgments of responsibility. The prime minister went so far as to concede that his government “didn’t get the balance quite right.” Not to be outdone in the race for the most fearless and blunt mea culpa, Miller said, “Did we take too long to adjust? I think there is some responsibility there to assume.”

Wow! By whom? Tell us more, minister!

Look, let’s be blunt about this. Both your Line editors support immigration. And we both know that there is plenty of blame to go around. Many business interests and provincial leaders were desperate for more people. The federal government didn’t come up with the idea of ramping up growth to unsustainable levels all on its own. They had a lot of friends and a lot of help. The buck does stop with them. And we’re not going to let them get away with their attempts to deflect the blame. But it is fair to note that a lot of people were demanding this, and that our failure to roll out enough housing and social services to keep up with the demand rests on us, not on the people we invited to start new lives in this country. They are victims here. We sold them a bill of goods we had no ability or willingness to deliver upon. And we should be ashamed of ourselves for that. We have essentially defrauded people who just wanted to build a better lives for themselves and their families so that we could keep reaping the economic benefits of their arrival, and we kept doing that until the moment that it stopped being a good deal for us. Some future descendent of Justin Trudeau is probably going to have to offer up a tearful apology for this in a century or so. 

And it’ll take that long, clearly. This was the feds’ responsibility, and they screwed it up. It would not kill them to admit as much, openly and clearly, with a bit less of a masterclass in the passive voice than what Miller just offered the voters.

Globe editorial: Canada’s past and present were built on immigration. Our future will be too. Ottawa responded too slowly to rectify its mistakes but last week moved past tinkering. Count it as a turning point. The changes will help start to restore broad confidence in an immigration system that was long embraced by Canadians, respected around the world – and helped to build this country over many decades.

Immigration changes a ‘black eye’ for businesses, families, students, warns B.C. lawyer
“Businesses are going to suffer. The people on the ground right now — the workers here, the people on temporary status — are suffering. The students (are) totally gutted,” said Victoria immigration lawyer David Aujla. “We had a really pro-refugee, pro-humanitarian outlook, accepting people who were in crises. I think that’s going to take a big hit. I think Canada’s now got a black eye.”

The new changes will be very difficult for some newcomers waiting to bring relatives to Canada, said Jonathan Oldman, CEO of the Immigrant Services Society of B.C.

The reductions, though, will make the new levels of permanent residents similar to what happened before COVID-19, said Oldman, whose agency helps settle more than 25,000 people each year who come to B.C. for humanitarian, economic or family reunification reasons.

Will Tao, an immigration lawyer with the Burnaby law firm Heron, worries these changes are designed to “nudge” people to leave Canada if they’re facing long waiting times to become permanent residents.

“They’re obviously scared and concerned,” he said of his clients.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government didn’t get the “balance quite right” when it increased immigration targets over recent years. But Tao said achieving that balance isn’t as simple as slashing targets, which affect people from countries ranging from war-stricken Ukraine to Afghanistan where women and girls are at risk.

The impact includes post-secondary schools losing a “cash cow” of funding by losing international students, who pay far higher tuition than Canadian youth.

Tao also said some employers in the last week have pulled their support for a Labour Market Impact Assessment, a document that’s necessary to hire foreign workers, because they can’t afford the new federally mandated increase in wages for temporary foreign workers.

And while fewer immigrants may lead to less competition for affordable housing, will Canada also lose the temporary residents who are construction workers building the much-need housing?

“Immigration is a driver of economic growth and is the primary source of population growth in the near term,” Fiona Famulak, the chamber’s president, said in a statement last week. “Decreasing the labour pool will therefore add to (businesses’s) burden, not improve it, in the coming years.”

High-profile Vancouver immigration lawyer Richard Kurland said his email inbox has been clogged with messages from clients, lawyers and immigration consultants looking for solutions to this “fiasco” created by the federal government.

Those wanting to increase their chances of permanent residency should “look at your options seriously and immediately.”

C.D. Howe Institute Advisory Group on Immigration Targets: In conclusion, the Advisory Group agreed that Canada’s immigration system requires reform to better balance population growth with the country’s economic capacity. With some members supporting an annual intake of under one percent of the population for permanent immigration, the group broadly supported a gradual reduction in both permanent and temporary immigration over the coming years, with a focus on maintaining sustainable, long-term levels. Members stressed the need for a stable, transparent immigration policy that prioritizes high-skilled immigrants, addresses housing and healthcare challenges, and restores public confidence. They called for a more rigorous assessment of immigration programs and improved enforcement capacity, urging the government to set realistic, evidence-based immigration targets.

St-Arnaud : Ottawa’s cut to immigration flow may lead to economic challenges: The recent years are an example of how Canada’s immigration policies can dramatically affect the economy. The government went from one extreme, the population growing too fast, to another, growing too little. This volatility shows that both extremes can lead to economic challenges.

Orsini: Canada has lost its reputation for bringing in the best and brightest students: So what can the federal government do to rebuild Canada’s global reputation? First, when in a deep hole, stop digging. The blunt policy changes have created confusion and uncertainty, which is discouraging students from coming to Canada. We need the world’s top scientists, researchers and innovators to help grow our economy and to make up for our slowing labour-force growth rate.

Second, the federal government needs to accelerate its targeted approach to international student enrolment through a simplified and streamlined “Recognized Institutional Framework” that incentivizes good performance and focuses on quality programming and students applying to Canada. Unfortunately, including master’s and PhD students under the international student cap will further discourage highly skilled students from coming to Canada, and add further delays to an already lengthy process.

Third, the federal government needs to work with the provinces, industry and the postsecondary sector to rebuild our brand so that Canada once again becomes a destination for top talent from around the world. Our country has lost our global reputation as a top destination for talent because of changes like the latest student-permit cuts.

Alicia Planincic: What will the cut in immigration mean for Canada’s economy?  The result, however, is that at least 40 percent of the now more limited spots available for permanent residency (395,000 in 2025) will be granted based on whether a candidate is already in Canada rather than who brings the most value to the Canadian economy, longer-term. Though it’s difficult without more information to determine the extent of the impact, many current temporary residents work in lower-skill positions, meaning that higher-skill candidates—the engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, and skilled tradespeople—who don’t yet live here could be passed over as a result.

Blit: Ottawa’s immigration cut is a chance to boost productivity: Ottawa’s policy shift sends the right signal. But further changes to immigration policy are needed. It’s time to end the recently introduced category-based immigrant selection process, which encourages companies to invest in lobbying rather than in technology. We need a full return to the “points system,” one that’s data-driven and targets the most highly skilled talent to fuel innovation and growth. The best and brightest knowledge workers are not only productive themselves, they can make others around them more productive as well.

Last week’s announcement, then, is more than just a return to sensible immigration levels. It’s a rallying cry to Canadian businesses: no more shortcuts. If Canada’s economyis going to thrive in the 21st century, it will be through ingenuity, investment and the right kind of talent – not an endless supply of cheap labour.

Century Initiative | Slashing immigration is a political shortcut, not a real solution: When a country faces large-scale social or economic change, as Canada does, we need leadership from government, and a vision based on where we are today and where we can aspire to go. Instead, we’re seeing our policymakers swing from month to month based on the opinion environment, chasing after the low-hanging fruit to reduce demand for housing over the nation-building need to plan for supply.

It doesn’t have to be this way. We can replace these fragmented, whack-a-mole efforts with a long-term, national smart growth framework — one that builds inroads between immigration targets and housing, workforce, and infrastructure.

It’s not enough to change the tires; we need to rebuild a more resilient economic engine for Canada’s future. [I almost have pity for the CI given how rapidly the debate has turned]


















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Selected commentary on Government’s reversal of immigration policies

2024/10/26 Leave a comment

The plan, apart from the numbers and the addition of targets for temporary residents, also had high level discussion of impacts on housing, healthcare and education, as I argued for in my December 2022 article Has immigration become a third rail in Canadian politics?

Major and overdue reversal, one that allows for a more serious discussion regarding immigration policies and priorities without accusations of xenophobia or racism (although see that some activists have already gone there).

Some selected commentary, mix of serious and agenda driven, no doubt more will follow.

Advocates:

A Dark Day for Canada: CILA Condemns Immigration Levels Plan 2025-2027: As an example of this, the federal government’s decision to aggressively increase permanent resident levels in 2021 during a challenging pandemic operating environment created a cascading effect on permanent and temporary resident programs which are still placing immense pressure on the immigration system today and will continue to do so over the foreseeable future. Another example was to allow international students to work full-time while class was in session. This change added to the growing number of foreign students coming to Canada, primarily to seek employment opportunities rather than academic pursuits. Consulting widely with stakeholders would give IRCC the information it needs to plan for the long-term and make policy decisions that are sustainable.  

While we are unable to change the past, it is incumbent on IRCC to learn from its recent shortcomings and ensure it hosts genuine stakeholder consultations moving forward so that immigration levels planning and other major policy decisions consider various viewpoints and we can proactively and effectively manage a healthier immigration system. 

OCASI: Immigration Levels Plan leaves behind refugees, families and people without status: We are deeply concerned that the government continues to incorrectly tie immigration numbers to housing pressures. Scapegoating immigrants for the lack of affordable housing is disgraceful, and will only increase anti-immigrant sentiment from politicians and the public. We expect better from the government and leaders of all political parties. 

These cuts also contradict the government’s acknowledgement that immigration is essential to Canada’s economic success and growth, and that 100% of Canada’s labour market growth comes from immigration. We call on the government to provide greater clarity on how the new levels plan is expected to resolve the public concerns it claims to address.

Canada betrays refugees – CCR Statement on 2025 Levels Announcement: In a shameful abdication of responsibility, the Canadian government has massively reduced its commitment to offer protection to those fleeing persecution and danger in the world, and all but ensured that refugees in Canada will remain separated from their spouses and children for years to come. The CCR condemns today’s announcement and calls on the government to reverse this dangerous course.

Media commentary

Clark: The day Justin Trudeau (sort of) admitted a mistake on immigration: The U-turn is unusual for governments, and out of character for this one. But it had become a political necessity to tell Canadians the Liberals are changing course. Mr. Trudeau even admitted he made a mistake. Or sort of.

Keller: The Trudeau government wants to restore the immigration consensus that it broke: Good news: Canada’s immigration consensus is back. Better news: It’s being restored by the people who broke it.

That means immigration is not going to become a divisive, polarizing and potentially explosive issue in the next federal election. Unlike our peers in Europe and the United States, we’re not going to have a radical left versus radical right brawl over the issue.

Why not? Because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has come to its senses on this issue. It’s been moving in that direction for the last year and a half, and as of this week, it’s close to fully there.

Phillips | Don’t be fooled into thinking Canadians have soured on immigration — the truth is remarkable
Canadians, by a significant majority, still believe in the value of immigration and they aren’t scapegoating immigrants for their problems, which compared to what’s happening in other countries is quite remarkable. Apparently, not even massive screw-ups in the immigration system can change that. Be grateful.

John Ivison: Red flags all over Trudeau’s flawed plan to curb runaway immigration: The new immigration plan says that 62 per cent of permanent resident admissions will come from the economic class next year, up from 58 per cent in 2024.

But that might simply reflect the adoption of a proposal circulating in the Immigration Department that would create a new economic class of permanent residents for people with high-school education or less, who would otherwise not pass the Comprehensive Ranking point-system that has served Canada so well when it comes to selecting the best and brightest.

The fear among some economists is that this might apply the brakes to a situation that is out of control but risk derailing the whole locomotive by undermining the skills-based system and lowering the standard of permanent resident that Canada accepts.

SUN EDITORIAL: Reducing immigration necessary, not racist: We aren’t going to fault Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for admitting his high immigration policies were a mistake that contributed to today’s affordability crisis, including high housing costs.

We do fault him for his government’s false depiction of Canadians who were raising these concerns long before he did, as racists.

Jesse Kline: Toronto Star paints a skewed picture of Trudeau’s immigration cuts: The bigger problem is that Keung’s story ran in the news section, where reporters have traditionally been expected to provide unbiased accounts of the day’s events. Although Keung is a veteran of the Star’s newsroom, the issue of reporters blurring the line between news and opinion is becoming increasingly common — particularly among young journalists fresh out of university, where many professors now see it as their duty to train activists, rather than extol the virtues of objective journalism.

This influx of woke young journalists has fundamentally changed the culture of many newsrooms, even ones as storied as the New York Times, as its former opinion editor, James Bennet, lamented in a lengthy feature published in The Economist last December. Bennet noted that when he began working at the paper as a reporter in 1991, he started from the bottom and was taught to aspire to “journalistic neutrality and open-mindedness.” In 2006, he left to become editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, where he started to “see some effects of the new campus politics.” [Ironically, the NP increasingly resorts to anti-woke younger columnists.]

Academic

Worswick: As Canada cuts immigration numbers, we must also better select immigrants
The reduction in the immigration and temporary-resident targets can be seen as sound economic policy so long as we as a country maintain our historical focus on selecting economic immigrants who are likely to have high earnings in the Canadian labour market. This focus has played no small part in maintaining our pro-immigration consensus, which can continue under a properly designed set of immigration policies.

Various (Star selection)

Canada’s major changes to immigration targets met with widespread criticism: Diana Palmerin-Velasco, a director of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said the business community understands the need for a sustainable immigration system but is concerned about the plan’s implications on the labour market.

“It seems that the government might be overreacting,” she said. “It’s not just 100,000 fewer permanent residents. We are also expecting to see 400,000 fewer temporary residents. We are talking about 500,000 people.”

Scotiabank economist Rebekah Young said the drastic cuts to both permanent and temporary immigration are going to have a near-term macro impact on the economy, and there will be trade-offs.

“They are a source of labour supply and they provide economic activity through the workforce, but they also consume,” said Young. “We’re likely left with lower GDP, but not necessarily a stronger trajectory for the growth outlook.”

Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said the cuts are troubling to employers and small businesses.

“A restaurant owner who can’t find a cook ready and willing to work in their community will not have work for the Canadians who may work in the front of the house,” he said. “We need to rethink many of these recent changes and be ready to turn the dial back up.” 

The cuts mean migrants will be forced to remain temporary or become undocumented, and pushed further into exploitative jobs and conditions, said Syed Hussan of the Migrant Rights Network.

The Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association called the pullback a “dark day” for Canada, warning of economic, fiscal and social damage.

“We still have an aging population, low birth rate, and pressing economic and fiscal pressures,” said Barbara Jo Caruso, its co-president. “Canada’s fundamental need for immigration has not changed.”

Diana Gallego, president of the Canadian Council for Refugees, said behind the numbers slashed from the humanitarian component of the levels are 14,000 real people struggling under persecution or in conflict zones around the world.

Business

Statement by Century Initiative in Response to Federal Government’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan: “Cutting immigration targets is the ultimate hammer solution to a problem far more complex than a few loose nails. This decision projects panic and instability at a time when the country needs clarity and foresight. Canada’s reputation as a stable, welcoming environment for business and talent is now at risk.” — Lisa Lalande, CEO, Century Initiative 

CFIB statement on the latest immigration cuts: These decisions hold huge implications for small business owners, Canadian workers as well as permanent immigrants and temporary workers. A restaurant owner who can’t find a cook ready and willing to work in their community will not have work for the Canadians who may work in the front of the house. We need to rethink many of these recent changes and be ready to turn the dial back up whenever and wherever needed.

Size of Ottawa’s cuts to immigration targets takes business by surprise: Since the reduction is likely to take place when the economy is becoming less inflationary and interest rates decline, this could inspire “existing Canadians to ramp up their spending,” said James Orlando, director of economics at Toronto-Dominion Bank, instead of depending upon newcomers.

Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic in a note on Thursday said that while the government’s decision will reduce demand, the narrative that slower population growth is bad for the economy needs to be dispelled.

He said gross domestic product per capita, which measures the total production of goods and services during a certain period divided by the total population, has fallen in seven of the eight quarters since the second quarter of 2022.

Canada’s immigration pullback may impact economic growth, BoC governor says: “If population growth comes down faster than we have assumed, headline GDP growth will be lower,” Macklem said in response to a question on how the immigration curbs would impact the bank’s forecasts.

If household spending recovers more quickly due to continued cut in interest rates, economic growth could also be higher, he said, while addressing reporters virtually from Washington.

Other

Peter Csillag: Bigger numbers, fewer safeguards, and no accountability—How to fix Canada’s foreign worker program woes: The government’s signal this week that it is willing to not only entertain but actually implement restrictions on its broader immigration agenda is welcome, but far too little, too late. While the high-profile announcement of cuts to the number of permanent residents allowed into Canada is much needed, broader problems persist, particularly with the TFW program. It will be up to the next government to solve them.

Liberals to reduce immigration levels by 135K over two-year period: Sergio Karas, a specialist in immigration law agrees, he told True North that while this reduction is necessary given the housing crisis and the current state of the economy, he still believes that number should be further reduced. 

“As usual, the Trudeau government is doing it wrong,” said Karas. 

“The total number should be reduced to the 2015 levels of approximately 300,000 because the federal government inflated the number exponentially in the last nine years, but more important are the categories where the reduction should be applied. Not all applicants have the same ability to adapt, job security, language skills, and expertise required to ensure economic growth.”

Government announcement

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan is expected to result in a marginal population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to a population growth of 0.8% in 2027. These forecasts account for today’s announcement of reduced targets across multiple immigration streams over the next two years, as well as expected temporary resident outflows resulting from the 5% target, natural population loss and other factors.

With this year’s levels plan, we have listened to Canadians. We are reducing our permanent resident targets. Compared to last year’s plan, we are:

  • reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 395,000 in 2025
  • reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 380,000 in 2026
  • setting a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027

The Levels Plan also supports efforts to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. Given temporary resident reduction measures announced in September and this past year, Canada’s temporary population will decrease over the next few years as significantly more temporary residents will transition to being permanent residents or leave Canada compared to new ones arriving.

Specifically, compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by

  • 445,901 in 2025
  • 445,662 in 2026
  • a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027

These reductions are the result of a series of changes over the past year, including a cap on international students and tightened eligibility requirements for temporary foreign workers, implemented to decrease volumes and strengthen the integrity and quality of our temporary resident programs. The changes are designed with long-term economic goals in mind to make sure that we continue to attract the best and the brightest.

These changes will help provinces, territories and stakeholders align their capacities and allow the population to grow at a sustainable pace as we encourage institutions to do their part in better welcoming newcomers.

Other measures from the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan include the following:

  • Transitioning more temporary residents who are already in Canada as students and workers to permanent residents
    Representing more than 40% of overall permanent resident admissions in 2025, these residents are skilled, educated and integrated into Canadian society. They will continue to support the workforce and economy without placing additional demands on our social services because they are already established, with housing and employment.
  • Focusing on long-term economic growth and key labour market sectors, such as health and trades
    Permanent resident admissions in the economic class will reach 61.7% of total admissions by 2027.
  • Strengthening Francophone communities outside Quebec and supporting their economic prosperity
    Of the overall permanent resident admission targets, Francophone immigration will represent
    • 8.5% in 2025
    • 9.5% in 2026
    • 10% in 2027

Through this plan, we are using our existing programs so that everyone—including newcomers—has access to the well-paying jobs, affordable homes and social services they need to thrive in our beautiful country.

Source: Government of Canada reduces immigration


















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Keller: The Liberals are lowering carbon taxes and raising immigration. They should do the opposite

2023/11/04 Leave a comment

Another good column by Keller. Money quote:

If the decision matrix had been good economic policy, the government would have U-turned on immigration, while holding firm on carbon pricing.

Source: The Liberals are lowering carbon taxes and raising immigration. They should do the opposite

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Personal reflections on the immigration levels plan

2023/11/03 Leave a comment

Reviewing the plan and the coverage to date, my initial reflections are as follows:

The approach of stabilizing levels at 500,000 in 2025 resulted in the headlines the government likely wanted, with words like “plafonnent,” “hold back,” “capping,” “level out” and”stabilize.”

However, given that means an increase from 2023 levels of 465,000 to 500,000 in 2025, this “stabilizing” is more virtue signalling that they are listening to public concerns than actually taking action. The fact that any further adjustment would happen after the 2025 election makes is likely meaningless for the current government.

Moreover, given timelines to increase housing and healthcare capacity, continued increases in immigration levels will simply exacerbate the gap between levels and absorptive capacity. Hard to see this as a winning strategy…

However, should, as appears likely, the Conservatives form the next government, they would be faced with a high baseline level that may or may not be politically difficult to undo. And of course, the Liberals may have thoughts of this being a potential wedge issue for immigrant origin voters, a dubious strategy given that immigrant voters are more concerned about high immigration levels than Canadian-born (Environics Focus Canada 2023).

The plan, as is common in government documents, fails to acknowledge the negative impacts of some policy changes:

On the positive side, the government belatedly notes the impact of high levels of immigration on housing, healthcare and infrastructure and notes the need for a “whole of government” approach to improve the absorptive capacity:

While immigration contributes to the supply of labour, alleviates demographic pressures, and provides social and cultural benefits, it also creates demand for infrastructure and services. With significant and sustained growth in planned notional immigration levels, success for newcomers and all Canadians means working collaboratively with other federal departments, provinces and territories, communities and municipalities, Indigenous communities, the private sector, and stakeholders.

While there is more discussion on the role and importance of temporary foreign workers but no details on possible actions resulting from his media comment that “Canada has become “addicted” to temporary foreign workers, which has created what he called “perverse incentives” and, in some cases, led to abuse of the workers.” Minister Miller has started to address the abuse of the international student program but still too early to tell how effective these changes will be given implementation issues.

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