Une langue pour se parler

2023/11/08 Leave a comment

Nice account of language training in action. Whenever I had to learn a language for the foreign service, the initial stages were humbling as one struggled to get a sense of the language, its grammar and vocabulary:

Loin de la clameur politique des débats sur la langue, des milliers d’immigrants s’attellent chaque jour à la tâche d’apprendre le français au Québec. Le Devoir s’invite dans une classe de francisation tout au long de la session. Aujourd’hui, première semaine de cours et les phrases s’allongent déjà.

Au tableau, il y a du rouge pour le français parlé et du noir pour le français écrit. À tour de rôle, les étudiants se présentent : « Mon pays est à côté du Malawi. » « Je parle six langues et j’étudie le français. » « Chu arrivée toute seule en janvier 2022. »

Des grandes fenêtres de la classe, dans cet édifice de l’UQAM de la rue Sainte-Catherine, à Montréal, on embrasse d’un seul coup d’oeil plusieurs institutions emblématiques de la Belle Province : Hydro-Québec, Desjardins, le CHUM, la croix du Mont-Royal et Air Transat.

Le dernier étudiant à avoir parlé se retourne vers son camarade pour la prochaine étape du cours : « Dans quelle ville t’habites ? »

Michel Usereau, l’enseignant à l’avant, mime avec grande emphase, répète, demande et encourage. Incroyable qu’il ne soit pas essoufflé, à force de gesticuler le français : « Fini, ça veut dire fini », dit-il en décroisant ses bras vers le bas ostensiblement. C’est lui le guide, celui qui permet de tituber sur les mots et peut-être enfin de pouvoir épeler son nom au téléphone ou passer sa commande à la pharmacie.

« L’objectif, c’est de réussir à vivre. Quand l’étudiant vient me revoir et me dit “j’ai réussi à parler avec la garderie et je n’ai pas eu peur”, ma mission est accomplie. Le français a amélioré et simplifié leur vie », relate M. Usereau. Ou plutôt « professeur Michel », comme l’appellera une étudiante, c’est souvent le premier Québécois avec qui ces immigrants passeront autant de temps.

Suivre des cours de langue à temps plein est pour le moins prenant : 7 heures par jour, 5 jours par semaine, durant 11 semaines.

Pour l’instant, trois jours après le début du cours 1 en francisation, les étudiants sont dans l’immédiat, le temps présent, la première question à un étranger : « C’est quoi ton nom ? » s’envoient-ils comme une balle de l’un à l’autre.

À peine auront-ils souvent besoin du passé pour parler de leur profession, celle que la plupart ont laissée dans leur pays d’origine.

Une certaine complicité s’est déjà installée. Michel se retourne vers une étudiante : elle est devenue la femme au « le », celle qui répète à ses camarades cet article trop souvent oublié par les nouveaux apprenants.

Il y a aussi la dégaine de celui qui maîtrise déjà la contraction de « il y a » : le « i’a », qui est évidemment écrit en rouge au tableau. Pas parce qu’il s’agit d’une erreur, mais bien pour indiquer le français parlé.

Une vision dynamique

Michel Usereau enseigne un français tout sauf « scolaire et désincarné ». « Je ne suis pas un organisme de correction linguistique qui vise au perfectionnement de je ne sais quoi », dit-il à la journaliste assise au fond de sa classe.

Très loin, donc, des discours sur la « pureté » de la langue, sa vision pourrait se résumer à : « On respire par le nez par rapport à la langue », rigole-t-il.

Le Montréalais en a évidemment une conception plus élaborée, lui qui a fait des études supérieures en linguistique. Il a aussi travaillé plusieurs années à l’intérieur même du ministère de l’Immigration, notamment pour élaborer le programme-cadre pour l’enseignement du français aux adultes au Québec.

« Les gens à qui tu vas parler ne vont pas se dire “ah, tu as appris le français dans un livre et c’est poussiéreux”. Non, ils vont voir que tu vis une partie de ta vie en français et que tu l’apprends en côtoyant le monde. C’est une langue de socialisation. »

Les étudiants de francisation travaillent « pour un résultat concret, pour la vie », plutôt que pour la note. Il n’enseigne pas que la langue, mais une clé pour ouvrir la porte vers la société québécoise. C’est notamment ce qu’il aime dans son travail, expose ce polyglotte qui enseigne depuis 2000, à l’exception d’un détour de sept ans au ministère.

La langue n’est pas « une question idéologique » entre les quatre murs de son cours : « La langue, ce n’est pas à moi de la juger, c’est à moi de la décrire, d’enseigner des choses que les gens vont dire dans différents contextes. »

Aussi bien dire qu’il embrasse la langue telle qu’elle est : vivante, changeante, agile, fonctionnelle et complexe à la fois.

Le courage des étudiants

Et il prend aussi ses étudiants là où ils sont. Beaucoup d’entre eux vivent une perte de statut social, conjuguent les cours à temps plein avec un travail, une famille et les tourments de l’exil, qu’il soit choisi ou imposé par les circonstances.

Parfois dès l’arrivée, parfois quelques années après, les étudiants des cours de francisation à temps plein ont tous fait le choix de se rasseoir sur les bancs d’école durant plusieurs mois. Tous des gens à qui « on offre de se poser dans une période souvent mouvementée de leur vie », dit Michel, qui se s’estime heureux de pouvoir vivre ces moments avec eux.

Pour apprendre une langue à l’âge adulte, il faut souvent se rendre vulnérable et se tromper devant toute la classe. La langue est une compétence « qu’il faut activer », dit Michel, pour qui répéter fait partie du quotidien.

« Pardon, Michel, les pays prennent-ils des grandes lettres ? » demande une étudiante. L’enseignant a déjà saisi qu’elle parle de lettres majuscules, un nouveau mot qu’elle écrit à la suite dans son carnet.

Il y en a beaucoup à aimer des caprices, des incongruités et certaines des incohérences de la langue de Tremblay. Les combinaisons de lettres : le « g » doux de girafe, qui devient dur devant le « o » et le a pour dire « garage », par exemple. Les lettres muettes à ne pas prononcer, comme dans le mot « cours ». Les lettres inexistantes, qui ne surgissent qu’à l’oral pour faire les liaisons, comme dans « les examens » ; le « d » de « quand » qui devient un « t » dans « quand est-ce que le cours finit ? ».

« Aujourd’hui » aussi, dont on n’aura pas assez d’aujourd’hui pour maîtriser l’orthographe.

Ils viennent des grandes villes du monde entier ; ont quitté leur poste de directrice des ressources humaines pour 15 pays ; ont dû interrompre leurs études à cause de la guerre ; ou voulu exercer leur profession au Québec où ils sont recherchés.

Au troisième jour de leur français naissant, ils comprennent déjà la journaliste qui s’invite à les visiter fréquemment en cours de francisation. Mais ce n’est qu’à force de patience, de courage et de répétitions qu’ils parviendront à vous raconter leur histoire.

Source: https://apple.news/ARrpddOu0QcCJksZSKe2ijg

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Michael Taube: Leave it to Trudeau to destroy his party’s reputation on immigration

2023/11/08 Leave a comment

Overly partisan but not without some valid criticisms. And Taube leaves out the bigger issue of the larger number of temporary residents:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s immigration plan is broken. His Liberal government may not have admitted it in so many words, but their recent actions speak quite clearly.

After steadily increasing the number of newcomers over the years, Ottawa has announced it will cap the number of permanent residents it accepts at 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026. It’s finally dawned on the Trudeau Liberals that there needs to be an economic reset. Canada’s housing market is too expensive and our health care system is overloaded — and the impact of costly temporary resident programs is too often overlooked.

From a historical perspective, the decision to put a forthcoming freeze on immigration is certainly interesting. For the first time in a long time, the Liberals will likely be viewed in a more negative light when it comes to Canada and its immigration policies.

The Liberals were consistently put on a high pedestal by many generations of newcomers due to their seemingly positive approach to immigration. The fact that former prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King, a Liberal, committed one of the worst immigration-related atrocities in Canadian history, turning away 900 Jewish refugees who fled Nazi Germany aboard the MS St. Louis in 1939, and oversaw the disgraceful internment of Japanese Canadians during the Second World War, was largely (and conveniently) forgotten.

As for Conservative prime ministers like Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper, who both supported immigration from a personal standpoint and as a means to enhance the country’s economic engine, they never received nearly the same amount of praise and adulation for their efforts.

In particular, Pierre Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister was consistently viewed in the most positive light by most Canadian newcomers. He could do no wrong when it came to immigration. Yet, here’s the historical irony. This Liberal leader actually oversaw a significant decline in total immigration numbers.

According to Bob Plamondon in his book, The Truth about Trudeau, Canada had 183,974 immigrants when he was first elected in 1968, or roughly one per cent of the population. When Trudeau left politics in 1984, the immigration rate dwindled to 0.3 per cent.

“These reductions did not reflect an anti-immigrant policy per se, but flowed out of a choice made by the Trudeau government in response to a weaker economic climate and higher unemployment,” Plamondon wrote.

His assessment was that “holding the line on immigration is exactly the opposite of what Trudeau is known for,” and it’s entirely accurate. That’s not what most Canadians know or want to remember about him, however.

They would rather focus on the elder Trudeau’s decision to introduce the Canadian multiculturalism policy in 1971 that touted personal and cultural freedom for ethnic minorities.

“A policy of multiculturalism within a bilingual framework commends itself to the government as the most suitable means of assuring the cultural freedom of Canadians,” he told the House of Commons on Oct. 8, 1971. “Such a policy should help to break down discriminatory attitudes and cultural jealousies … It can form the base of a society which is based on fair play for all.”

They also remember when he brought in a new Immigration Act in 1976 with fondness. The act supported economic and cultural policies for newcomers, the need for diversity and promoting non-discrimination against newcomers. Government and the volunteer sector would work together to help new immigrants adapt to our country, and refugees became a distinct group of immigrants protected under Canadian law.

Many immigrants therefore viewed the elder Trudeau as a political saviour and their champion. Criticism of his leadership and policies was often ignored or disregarded. When it came time to vote, most would enthusiastically select the candidate with the word “Liberal” next to his or her name.

But what the elder Trudeau giveth, the younger Trudeau taketh away.

The younger Trudeau’s government has hiked Canada’s immigration numbers far more than most western democratic governments — and his own father’s. When he was first elected in 2015, Canada’s target for permanent residents was below 300,000. We’ll be at 485,000 in 2024 and at 500,000 in 2025.

“Make no mistake. This is a massive increase in economic migration to Canada,” then-immigration minister Sean Fraser told the Canadian Press in 2022. “We have not seen such a focus on economic migration as we’ve seen in this immigration levels plan.”

It was a massive increase, but to what end?

The younger Trudeau’s poor reputation on the international stage has tarnished Canada’s reputation as a welcoming country to newcomers; this is a result of, for instance, icy relations with G20 leaders, problems with India (costumes and otherwise), older instances of blackface and more. Trudeau also paid plenty of lip service to Syrian and Afghan refugees in past years — in practice, however, refugee resettlement has dropped overall from 76,000 in 2023 to below 73,000 in 2025.

Furthermore, the Trudeau government’s decision to ignore the affordability crisis until just recently has made Canada a tough environment for newcomers, who now have trouble finding work, paying rent and feeding their families.

Whereas the elder Trudeau and other Liberal prime ministers regularly built voter confidence with new immigrants, the younger Trudeau has developed into a leader who tries to desperately grab immigrant votes at all costs. Based on his economic mismanagement and forthcoming freeze on newcomer numbers, that political farce won’t be happening for much longer.

Source: Michael Taube: Leave it to Trudeau to destroy his party’s reputation on immigration

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Le plafonnement annoncé en immigration n’est qu’illusion

2023/11/07 Leave a comment

Certainement:

En se targuant d’enfin tenir compte de la capacité d’accueil du Canada et des provinces, déjà mise à rude épreuve, le gouvernement de Justin Trudeau prévoit maintenant de « stabiliser » ses cibles d’immigration… dans trois ans. Mais, d’ici là, la crise du logement, facteur principal de ce semblant d’ajustement libéral, ne se résorbera pas miraculeusement. La flexibilité exhibée traduit plutôt un entêtement persistant.

Les avertissements brandis par le Québec, voulant que l’éducation, la santé ainsi que l’offre de logement peinent à répondre à l’immigration pléthorique fédérale, sont maintenant partagés par d’autres provinces canadiennes. La population aussi s’en inquiète désormais. Un récent sondage révélait qu’un nombre record de citoyens croient que le Canada accueille trop d’immigrants (44 % des Canadiens, 37 % des Québécois).

Nonobstant, le fédéral maintient la hausse prévue encore deux ans : la cible passera à 485 000 immigrants en 2024 et à 500 000 en 2025. C’est l’année suivante que ce chiffre restera figé. Or, d’ici ce gel annoncé, ce sont 55 000 personnes arrivantes de plus que si le gouvernement avait stabilisé son accueil dès aujourd’hui aux 465 000 immigrants attendus cette année. Un ralentissement plus rapide aurait cependant renié les valeurs libérales, s’inquiétait-on dans ses rangs.

Les signaux étaient pourtant encourageants. Le plan stratégique pour l’immigration dévoilé cette semaine s’engageait à « chercher à intégrer la planification du logement et de la santé, et d’autres services importants, à la planification des niveaux d’immigration du Canada ». Le tout, « en collaboration étroite avec les provinces ». Le gouvernement Trudeau a même appuyé une motion bloquiste, non contraignante, l’appelant à revoir ses cibles d’accueil après consultation du Québec et des provinces « en fonction de leur capacité d’accueil ».

Mais ce nouvel arrimage, promis par Ottawa, ne se fera qu’a posteriori. Le fédéral persiste à ignorer les volontés d’accueil du Québec. La « consultation » fédérale ne servira qu’à répartir ce nombre de nouveaux arrivants fixé unilatéralement.

Qu’importe que des experts, comme ceux de la Banque TD, aient averti qu’un « choc de la demande » guette le filet social du Canada. Qu’importe aussi que la vérificatrice générale ait dénoncé l’embourbement du traitement des demandes d’immigration, qui s’éternise à 22 mois pour les immigrants économiques et à quatre ans pour les réfugiés. L’arrivée d’un demi-million de nouveaux arrivants par année n’aidera pas ce goulet d’étranglement.

Le gouvernement du Québec, de son côté, maintient ses cibles à 50 000 nouveaux arrivants pour les deux prochaines années. En comptabilisant les diplômés accueillis par le Programme de l’expérience québécoise (PEQ), le chiffre annuel avoisinera les 60 000 immigrants.

S’y ajoutent cependant les centaines de milliers d’immigrants temporaires que Québec et Ottawa persistent à exclure de cette équation d’accueil. Ils sont, depuis deux ans, trois fois plus nombreux que les immigrants permanents.

Faute de gérer leur arrivée, Québec s’en remet à exiger pour certains la maîtrise du français, après avoir fait de même pour les immigrants économiques et ceux du PEQ. Quelque 35 000 travailleurs étrangers temporaires autres qu’agricoles devront dorénavant en faire la démonstration eux aussi pour renouveler leur permis au-delà de trois ans — comme tant de ces travailleurs venus pour pallier le manque de main-d’oeuvre le font.

François Legault voit dans la protection du français, et, de ce fait, de l’identité québécoise, sa « responsabilité historique ». L’immigration n’y est plus une menace, à ses yeux, mais elle est devenue un outil.

L’exigence de ce test de français semble toutefois embryonnaire. Ces travailleurs temporaires, déjà surmenés, auront-ils le temps et l’énergie de s’y consacrer ? Leurs employeurs seront-ils forcés de le leur permettre, ou simplement encouragés ? Les ressources de francisation seront-elles au rendez-vous ?

Les prochaines années diront si ces plafonnements de l’immigration suffiront à stabiliser aussi la pression sur le filet social appréhendée par les gouvernements. Avant d’en redébattre en campagnes électorales, puisqu’ils ont préféré présenter des plans pluriannuels écourtés.

Source: Le plafonnement annoncé en immigration n’est qu’illusion

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He may be Canada’s oldest international student. What his studies say about our immigration system

2023/11/07 Leave a comment

Nice human interest story. As always, when one door is closed, the more entrepreneurial will find a way…:

Luis Diaz may be the most popular student in school.

Every morning, he packs his lunch bag and water bottle in his backpack before his son drops him off at the Nova Scotia Community College in Halifax, where he’s studying tourism and hospitality as an international student.

But this isn’t his first time in college, decades ago he studied at the Instituto Politecnico Nacional in Mexico, where he got his engineering degree in 1978 and went on to a stellar career as a metallurgical engineer, before retiring four years ago.

“I’m surrounded by classmates much younger than me. The energy they have is contagious,” said Diaz, who followed his son’s lead in becoming an international student in Canada. “It makes me feel much younger.”

At 69, Diaz is notably one of the oldest among the nearly 900,000 international students in Canada, the world’s most popular destination for international education, offering a pathway to work opportunities and potential permanent residence.

According to Statistics Canada, less than 5 per cent of international students are 35 or older.

While Diaz is an eager lifelong learner, his return to school also speaks in part to the failures of the immigration sponsorship program for parents/grandparents and the so-called super visa program meant to grant overseas parents like him extended stay as temporary residents.

The sponsorship program allows Canadian citizens and permanent residents to bring their parents and grandparents to the country as permanent residents if the sponsors meet certain income thresholds and commit to providing the required financial support.

The problem is it’s a lottery system and only those who get picked in an annual draw are invited to submit an application. In 2023, there were only 28,500 spots.

And since the pandemic in 2020, the Immigration Department has stopped accepting new people into the pool, meaning that the draws have been restricted to those who had previously entered into the pool.

While the 10-year super visa offers temporary relief for those taking their chances on permanent sponsorship, visa holders must pay for costly health insurance and can’t work or study here.

“It is extremely difficult to apply for parental sponsorship and assist families to be reunited in Canada,” said Toronto immigration consultant Rene Berrospi.

“The super visa and visitor visa are not allowing these people to contribute to the Canadian society. They only allow them to stay legally in the country. But immigrants can still be productive at any age.”

Diaz and his wife, Candelaria Ramirez, 71, have another son, who works as a software engineer in the United States. The couple has been travelling between Denver and Halifax to be with their two adult children, but spent most of their time here during the pandemic.

After consulting with Berrospi, Diaz weighed his options and decided to return to school to “do something meaningful” and for a shot at permanent residence when he learned that Halifax and Campeche, Mexico, are actually sister cities, and there’s an opportunity to start a business to promote tourism between the two places.

In 2021, he enrolled himself in a language school to brush up on his English before he applied to the Nova Scotia Community College last year. He began the two-year, $36,000 tourism and hospitality program in September.

“I am an active man. I can’t spend my life on a couch,” said Diaz, who is taking six full-time courses this term. “This is exciting.”

Diaz is popular among his much younger peers in the classroom, who appreciate his rich life experience and perspectives.

“He’s always very attentive. He asks questions. He’s always helping with examples. He’ll tell us stories with his wife and try to connect things in his life and his culture to things we’re doing in school,” said Zoe Fitzsimmons, 21, who is from Halifax.

“It’s really inspiring he’s going back to school at his age. He’s so nice and so sweet to everyone. He’s like a class dad or the class grandpa to us.”

Diaz says he’s enjoying school a lot but it’s hard returning to the classroom, catching up on new technology and studying in a different language.

His son, Pavel, a former brand manager in Mexico City, has proven to be an important mentor and tutor, given his own share of experience as a former international student in Canada.

“I’m helping him with his assignments and taking him to different networking events in the industry. It’s been an interesting ride for us,” said Pavel, who came in 2013 to study event management at Humber College and now works as an event planner in Halifax.

“Our roles have kind of reversed. My dad is a big NFL fan and I have to check on him to see if he finishes his homework or he can’t watch football on TV.”

Diaz says he would like to complete his studies, get his postgraduate work permit and one day make Canada his permanent home.

Source: He may be Canada’s oldest international student. What his studies say about our immigration system

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Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery was the 5th weakest in the OECD

2023/11/07 Leave a comment

Sobering reminder of the failure of current economic and immigration policy. The Business Council of British Columbia consistently has the most realistic perspective of the impact of high immigration levels among all the business organizations:

Canada’s economy has generated little prosperity for the average Canadian over the past 8 years. Government forecasts indicate the economy is also expected to generate little or no prosperity over the next 8 years (see Williams 2023a).

The first step to managing any problem is to acknowledge that you have one. In contrast, the 2023 Federal Budget (page 5) claimed:

Canada’s economy is now 103 per cent the size it was before the pandemic, marking the fastest recovery of the last four recessions, and the second strongest recovery in the G7. Throughout 2022, our economy demonstrated sustained strength, with Canada posting the fastest growth in the G7 over the past year. [emphasis added]

Similarly, in the 2022 Fall Fiscal Update, the government claimed (page 27):

“There is no country better placed than Canada to weather the coming global economic slowdown and thrive in the years ahead.” [emphasis added]

The federal government’s decision to focus on GDP in its statements (i.e., “the size of the economic pie”), rather than GDP per capita (“everyone’s share of the economic pie”), is unfortunate. Over the past year, Canada’s real GDP grew by around 1%, but the population grew by 3% (1.2 million persons), so in per capita terms the economy became about 2% smaller. GDP growth is being juiced by the government’s pursuit of the fastest population growth since 1957-58. The 1957-58 episode followed two major global events, the Hungarian Revolution and Suez Crisis, whereas the current period entirely reflects domestic policy choices.

It’s true that when the population increases, GDP increases. But does the economy get any better in terms of people’s living standards? What happens to everyone’s share of the economic pie? To answer those questions, we need to focus on GDP per capita.

How did Canada’s economy perform prior to the pandemic?

In the five years to 2019, Canada’s real GDP per capita grew by 3% (0.5% per annum). It was the 4th weakest performance out of 38 advanced countries (Figure 1). Canada lagged well behind the United States (9%), Euro area average (9%), OECD average (8%), and G7 average (7%).

Figure 1

How has Canada’s economy performed since the pandemic?

Canada is one of only eight advanced countries where real GDP per capita is lower than before the pandemic. For the change in real GDP per capita over 2019-22, Figure 2 shows percentage growth rates and Figure 3 shows growth in US dollars (adjusted for purchasing power parity, PPP, across countries).

Canada’s real GDP per capita was USD 200 (0.4%) lower in 2022 than in 2019. In contrast, it was USD 3,300 (7%) higher in Australia, USD 2,500 (4%) higher in the United States, USD 1,300 (3%) higher for the OECD average and USD 1,100 (2%) higher for the G7 average.

Canada’s post-pandemic recovery in real GDP per capita over 2019-22 was the fifth weakest out of 38 OECD countries. Only the economies of the United Kingdom, Iceland, Spain and Mexico have had weaker recoveries.

Figure 2

Figure 3

Immigration is not an economic panacea

Immigration, not productivity, is the centrepiece of the federal government’s economic growth plan. However, the academic literature overwhelmingly finds that immigration levels have a neutral or negligible overall impact on a country’s living standards as measured by labour productivity, real wages, the employment rate, the age structure of the population or, crucially, GDP per capita.

There is a strong consensus on these points among Canada’s top labour market economists:

The fact that immigration has an overall neutral effect on GDP per capita (i.e., on “everyone’s share of the economic pie”) in the long run means we need to look through the veneer of population growth to see what is happening to living standards. GDP per capita is a good metric for this.

Reality check

Unfortunately, the federal government’s economic statements tend to focus on GDP growth. In the current context, with turbocharged population growth and labour productivity falling, this is an unhelpful metric.

It is out of touch with the weak economy most families are facing:

  • Canada’s growth in GDP per person was the fourth-weakest in the OECD in the five years before the pandemic to 2019.
  • Canada is one of only eight advanced countries where average real incomes are lower than before the pandemic, as inflation outpaces growth in nominal incomes. 
  • Canada’s recovery in real GDP per capita was the fifth-weakest in the OECD over 2019-22.
  • The OECD projects Canada will be the worst performing economy among the 38 advanced economies over both 2020-30 and 2030-60, with the lowest growth in real GDP per capita (see Williams, 2021).

Young and aspirational Canadians face 40 years of stagnation in average real incomes (Williams 2021). The principal reason is that Canada is expected to rank dead last among OECD countries for growth in labour productivity over most of 2020-60. Our workforce is less productive than workforces in peer countries (in terms of output per hour worked) because of relatively lower levels of non-residential capital investment per worker, lower levels of innovation and R&D, and because the average firm is less likely to export and produce output at scale.

Ignoring a problem does not make it go away

The federal government was so alarmed by Chart 28 of the 2022 Federal Budget (pages 25-26) – showing Canada dead last among 38 advanced countries for projected growth in real GDP per capita over 2020-60 – that it took bold and decisive action: by erasing any mention of this issue from its 2023 Federal Budget. The omission was not lost on columnist Andrew Coyne at the Globe and Mail.

Ignoring a problem does not make it go away. Canada’s structural problems need to be acknowledged (Williams (2023b)) and our economic policy mix needs rethinking (Williams and Finlayson (2023)).

Canada needs a prosperity-focused policy agenda focused on improving conditions for non-residential business investment, innovation, technology adoption and exports. With the Fall Economic Statement due in November, we encourage the federal government to take this opportunity to address these issues.

Source: Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery was the 5th weakest in the OECD

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Adams and Neuman: The conversation around immigration in Canada is shifting

2023/11/06 Leave a comment

Of note:

Canada has long been an immigrant nation, starting more than four centuries ago when the first European settlers arrived on what many Indigenous peoples call Turtle Island. Today, Canada stands out as having one of the most ethnically diverse populations on the planet. The 2021 census identifies more than four in 10 of us as either first- or second-generation Canadians; roughly half of the people living in Toronto and Vancouver started their lives in another country. This remarkable evolution has not been without blemish, as we know from a history of prejudice and racism directed toward new waves of newcomers over our history, whether Irish, Chinese, East Indian, or Muslim; unfortunately, elements of xenophobia still persist in our society.

But the prevailing sentiment among Canadians is one of acceptance, viewing immigration and immigrants as good for, if not essential to, our country’s growth and diversity. Our research at the Environics Institute reveals that our multicultural character is among the strongest sources of national pride and identity. Globally, the Gallup World poll consistently ranks Canada as the top country for migrant acceptance among its citizens, and we are the second-most desired destination worldwide (just behind the United States) among people considering migration.

Our continuing Focus Canada public opinion research surveys have found solid public support for immigration over the past decade, with notable consistency despite disruptions from the global COVID-19 pandemic, contentious federal and provincial elections, and occasional economic downturns. Our trend lines have looked remarkably stable for a long time.

In 2023, however, something significant has changed. In our latest national survey conducted in September in partnership with the Century Initiative, more than four in 10 Canadians now agree with the statement “there is too much immigration to Canada.” This remains the minority view, but it has grown by 17 percentage points from 12 months ago – a dramatic shift in public opinion that is the most significant one-year change in this indicator in four decades of research.

The primary reason for this change appears to be the growing concern about the potential role that a large number of newcomers may be having on housing, now widely considered to be a crisis in terms of both availability and affordability. Immigration may well be just one of numerous factors affecting the housing market, but recent images of asylum seekers camped out on city streets and homeless encampments in parks are potent signs that infrastructure has not kept up with our ambitious immigration targets.

And it’s not just about housing. Our research found that Canadians are feeling negative about the direction the country is heading, growing concerns about inflation and the cost of living, and diminished confidence in the ability of governments to address the country’s challenges ahead.

At the same time, our research shows no comparable change in how Canadians feel about immigrants and refugees, and what they contribute to the country. A strong majority continues to say that immigration has a positive impact on the country’s economy. Locally, Canadians across the country say immigrants make their own community a better place rather than a worse one, by a wide margin.

What are we to make of this latest change in public sentiment? Canadians are now, for the first time in decades and perhaps the country’s history, increasingly questioning immigration levels from the perspective of what they believe the country can manage in terms of resources, at a time when housing, our health care system and other infrastructure such as transit are under stress. The public’s focus now appears to be shifting beyond concerns about what type of immigrant is accepted, to how many are arriving in their communities.

Up until now, we would have considered anyone who says there is too much immigration to Canada to be expressing a xenophobic sentiment, reflecting fear or rejection of those seen as too different because of race, religion, or culture. This still applies for some, but we must now recognize that the public discourse has changed – that it is increasingly about the country’s capacity to receive the number of newcomers arriving, as well as who it is we are admitting. Some economists and policy experts insist that high immigration levels are essential to maintaining population growth and supporting key labour markets, but our social consensus on immigration and diversity depends on creating a well-functioning society for both Canadians who are already here as well as those still to come.

Source: The conversation around immigration in Canada is shifting

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Yakabuski: Ottawa’s latest immigration plans fail to move the needle, on housing and in Quebec

2023/11/06 Leave a comment

Another good analysis, bringing in the Quebec dimension:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week took a baby step toward recognizing its immigration policy needs some fixing by halting future increases in the number of permanent newcomers the country intends to accept.

…

Source: Ottawa’s latest immigration plans fail to move the needle, on housing and in Quebec

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Keller: The Liberals are lowering carbon taxes and raising immigration. They should do the opposite

2023/11/04 Leave a comment

Another good column by Keller. Money quote:

If the decision matrix had been good economic policy, the government would have U-turned on immigration, while holding firm on carbon pricing.

Source: The Liberals are lowering carbon taxes and raising immigration. They should do the opposite

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‘Abnormal’: Quebec says there are still too many asylum seekers entering the province

2023/11/04 Leave a comment

Of note. Many air travellers arrive in Montreal but still surprising so much less than Toronto. May reflect the presence or absence of direct flight connections or other factors.

She is correct, of course, in her critique of federal visa policies being too loose given the removal of the need to demonstrate sufficient funds and intent to return to their country of origin:

Quebec’s immigration minister says the number of asylum seekers entering the province is “abnormal.”

Christine Fréchette told reporters today that the federal government needs to do more to distribute would-be refugees across the country.

She says that since the closure of Roxham Road — the irregular land border crossing between Quebec and New York state — there are now too many asylum seekers showing up at the province’s airports.

Federal government statistics show that 17,080 people claimed asylum at Quebec airports between January and September of this year, more than double the second-highest province for airport claimants, Ontario.

Fréchette says Quebec has welcomed more asylum seekers so far this year than all other provinces combined, which was also true in 2022.

The minister also says Ottawa is too “loose” with the way it gives travel visas, saying many migrants are taking advantage of that pathway to claim asylum in the country.

Source: ‘Abnormal’: Quebec says there are still too many asylum seekers entering the province

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Sun editorial: High immigration fuels Canada’s housing crisis

2023/11/04 Leave a comment

Unfortunately true:

While Canadians continue to worry about the availability of affordable housing, the Trudeau government announced Wednesday it will continue its current policy of boosting immigration levels to record highs through 2026.

Its existing plan, announced a year ago, of admitting 465,000 new permanent residents to Canada this year, 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025, will now be extended to another 500,000 admissions in 2026.

Next year’s target of 485,000 new permanent residents will consist of 281,135 economic immigrants, 114,000 in family class, 76,115 refugees and 13,750 humanitarian admissions.

For 2025 and 2026, 500,000 new permanent residents will be admitted annually — 301,250 economic immigrants, 118,000 in family class, 72,750 refugees and 8,000 humanitarian admissions.

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has long argued higher immigration levels are needed to boost economic growth because of Canada’s low birth rate, its pursuit of high immigration policies flies in the face of growing public concerns about the lack of affordable housing.

A Nanos poll in September showed most Canadians surveyed — 53% — believe Canada’s current immigration levels are too high, compared to 34% who approve of them and 8% who think they should be higher. The remaining 6% were unsure.

An Environics poll released this week found stronger support for immigration — with 51% of those surveyed disagreeing with the statement “there’s too much immigration to Canada” compared to 44% who agreed.

But opposition to current immigration levels rose dramatically by 17 percentage points in one year, while support dropped by 18 percentage points — both huge reversals.

In recent months the TD Bank, BMO and National Bank of Canada, among others, have all warned the federal government that its policy of high immigration is exacerbating Canada’s housing shortage.

As the National Bank put it:

“The federal government’s decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing and demand … As housing affordability pressures continue to mount across the country, we believe Ottawa should consider revising its immigration targets to allow supply to catch up with demand.”

While Canadians have always welcomed immigration, there are clearly growing public concerns about federal immigration policy.

But on this issue, as on so many others, the Trudeau Liberals just aren’t listening.

Source: EDITORIAL: High immigration fuels Canada’s housing crisis

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