Keller: It’s time to Moneyball the immigration system

Keller continues to offer provocative suggestions. Overly market-based IMO but worth examining given that provincial funding increases unlikely:

…Given that the number of student visas is not infinite, priority should go to programs charging the highest tuition. By happy coincidence, many of the highest-value programs, producing graduates who may become high-wage immigrants, are also the highest-tuition programs.

For example, annual tuition and fees for international students at Waterloo ranges from $50,000 to $73,000. That’s roughly four times Conestoga’s international tuition.

It means that each international student at Waterloo is paying as much as four students at the crosstown college. The government of Ontario, which long prioritized visas for colleges as an easy cash grab, needs to do some basic math. It needs to cash grab more efficiently.

Moneyballing the system means fewer student visas, but going to programs educating the most economically productive future immigrants, and programs charging the highest tuition. The two aren’t exactly the same, but there is huge overlap.

The path forward is clear.

Source: It’s time to Moneyball the immigration system

Keller: The temporary foreign worker program is a scam, and almost everyone is in on it

More from Keller:

…The Trudeau government appears to have finally grasped that handing out an unlimited number of temporary visas, leading to 2.8 million temporary residents, far outstrips the capacity of the permanent immigration system, even after doubling the immigration quota to 500,000 a year. That quota includes refugees, economic immigrants and family reunifications from overseas, leaving just half a million spots or so each year to accommodate the 2.8 million temporary residents already in Canada.

The only way out, as I wrote last week, is to press rewind.

The Trudeau government turned student visas into an alternative low-wage job scheme by allowing students to work an unlimited number of hours while in school. It’s time to go back to the way things used to be: foreign students should not be allowed to work off campus. Postgraduate work visas should be restricted to high-quality graduates in high-wage fields.

And with the exception of seasonal farm work, only jobs paying at least 150 per cent of the median wage, or more than $110,000 a year, should be eligible for temporary visas

Business lobbyists will scream, but voters will cheer.

Source: The temporary foreign worker program is a scam, and almost everyone is in on it

Keller: How can the Trudeau government fix its immigration mess? Press ‘Rewind’

More from Keller on selectivity (Permanent Residents are selective unlike the demand-driven worker programs and international students):

…Over the last few years, work visas have been issued in unlimited numbers, with effectively no questions asked. That’s not how things used to be.

It should be quick and easy for a Canadian business to get a temporary work visa to fill a specialized, high-wage position. If an aeronautical engineering firm needs to recruit a senior production manager at $250,000 a year, they should get that visa yesterday.

But visas for $15-an-hour sandwich artists? Particularly when Statistics Canada says the summer jobless rate among students is at its highest level in decades? Forget it.

The temporary foreign worker streams must become smaller and more selective. Jobs paying, say, at least 150 per cent of the average Canadian full-time wage – that’s roughly $110,000 a year – should be possible to fill from overseas. Lower-wage applications should be auto-stamped “Denied.”

Yes, exception will have to be made for the long-standing program of seasonal agricultural workers. But other industries have to be weaned from their addiction to low-wage, low-rights labour. Going cold turkey will leave businesses with no choice but to raise wages and invest in productivity.

Selectivity should also be the rule when it comes to student visas. Immigration Minister Marc Miller is finally putting a cap on numbers, which were long unlimited. Infinite supply spawned an ecosystem of what Mr. Miller correctly dubbed “puppy mill” colleges, selling entry to Canada in exchange for minimal tuition. It’s a racket that Mr. Miller says he’s scaling back, but which he has hardly ended.

Canada should give student visa priority to programs with the best labour market outcomes, and the highest tuition. Some provinces, led by Ontario, appear to be doing the opposite. Foreign students at Ontario’s public universities pay tuitions that are generally several times those at public colleges, yet the lion’s share of Ontario’s student visas are allocated to colleges, not universities.

It’s not anti-immigration or anti-immigrant for Canada to be selective. It’s how we used to do things. It’s also how, from the 1980s until recently, through governments Progressive Conservative, Conservative and Liberal, Canada had higher levels of immigration than the rest of the developed world – and higher public support for immigration.

Source: How can the Trudeau government fix its immigration mess? Press ‘Rewind’

Keller: Canada is about to lose more than 100,000 farming jobs. That’s great economic news

More on innovation, productivity and immigration:

….Back in 1891, it would have called for a large (and mostly poorly paid) work force. Progress since then has been remarkable, spurred by massive investments in labour-saving farming equipment and technology. The Conference Board study predicts more of the same.

All of which should be a reminder that labour shortages and rising wages have economic benefits. Yes, benefits. They are the mother of business innovation and investment, because they force businesses to chase ever greater labour productivity. Particularly when it comes to low-wage jobs, a tight labour market and upward pressure on pay should be the goal of government policy.

However, Canadian businesses in recent years persuaded Ottawa that, no matter the state of the economy or the level of unemployment, they can’t fill hundreds of thousands of low-wage jobs. But these alleged labour shortages are mostly just businesses facing the pressure to compete for workers by raising wages.

Those pressures have been alleviated by allowing businesses to recruit an effectively unlimited number of temporary foreign workers, at the lowest legal wage, or less. Absent that low-wage release valve, businesses would have to innovate and invest more in new technologies to use less labour, and get more out of each hour of (increasingly expensive) labour.

That’s how we raise productivity. That’s how we grow the economy….

Source: Canada is about to lose more than 100,000 farming jobs. That’s great economic news

Keller: What Liberals and Conservatives can learn from the French and British elections

Keller continues his legitimate critique:

…Housing unaffordability is partly the result of an unprecedented and unplanned jump in non-permanent immigration, far above anything Canada has ever seen, and far above Liberal immigration plans. It was a case of severe government incompetence, and it’s still unclear to what extent the Trudeau administration is actually addressing the mess, as opposed to crafting a comms strategy to fuzzy it. Statistics Canada’s latest estimate of the non-permanent population is 2.8 million, up from less than two million a year ago.

Closing the gap between housing supply and housing demand, by greatly increasing housing supply, will take a long time. It calls for hundreds of thousands more construction workers and hundreds of billions more dollars. It risks bringing other economic distortions. In contrast, closing the gap by reducing population growth can be done quickly.

The Liberals may or may not need a new leader. They won’t win on fear. They can’t win by pitching more of the same. They definitely need a better record to run on.

Source: What Liberals and Conservatives can learn from the French and British elections

Keller: The latest unintended consequence of Liberal immigration policy

The latest from Keller, raising legitimate fears on the possible impact on public support for immigration. No win for the government as any measures they take will be opposed by activists on the left and conservatives on the right:

….The Liberals are under pressure from left-wing groups to offer many of them citizenship. But doing so would set a precedent, and open a Pandora’s Box of consequences.

It would encourage aspiring immigrants who do not qualify for the limited number of permanent residency spots to simply ignore the expiry of their work or student visas and remain in the country, pending amnesty. Ditto failed refugee claimants. Ditto people who overstay a tourist visa.

It would reinforce the growing impression, which student and worker recruiters around the world are selling, that crossing the Canadian border, by whatever means, is a smooth road to Canadian citizenship.

But for the Trudeau government, the most compelling reason to tread carefully in this area may be political. Canadian citizenship as a reward for flouting immigration law is going to tick off a lot of Canadians. I suspect the most hardboiled and unapologetic will be those people who queued up, followed the rules and entered during daylight hours: immigrants.

Source: The latest unintended consequence of Liberal immigration policy

Keller: The campus occupations aren’t protected by free speech, because they aren’t speech

Of note:

…Imagine if a Christian campus group took over King’s College Circle, and said it would remain until the university stopped funding anything to do with abortion. Should they be removed? Why? If your answer is they have to go because their opinions are wrong, you’re standing free speech on its head. This is Canada, not the People’s Republic of China.

The legal problem with an occupation, left or right, pro-Palestinian or anti-vaccine, isn’t what its participants are saying. It’s what they’re doing – taking over a space and holding it hostage.

What does that have to do with free speech? Nothing.

Source: The campus occupations aren’t protected by free speech, because they aren’t speech

Keller: The Trudeau government’s promise of 3.87 million new homes is next to impossible

I and others have been noting that time needed to increase housing means further revisions to the number of immigrants, temporary and permanent, is needed:

…An extraordinarily high share of our national wealth is already invested in housing rather than in productive business assets. In 2022, 37.9 per cent of Canada’s gross fixed capital formation – investment in assets – was tied up in dwellings. That’s the highest level in the OECD.

And the Trudeau government’s unreachable building target may aim too low. To achieve affordability solely through more housing, CMHC last year said the number of homes needed could be almost six million. CIBC economist Benjamin Tal pegs the shortfall at closer to seven million.

The logical conclusion is that we can’t build our way to affordability, at least not any time soon. Ottawa has to lean harder on the demand side of the equation. That means significantly reversing the unprecedented spike in the number of temporary residents. Population growth has to come down – way down.

Source: The Trudeau government’s promise of 3.87 million new homes is next to impossible

Keller: Is the Trudeau government overselling how much housing it can build? Yes

Indeed, particularly in the next few years if not more. Likely will not help their electoral prospects given time required to build new housing:

…When CIBC economist Benjamin Tal updated the CMHC estimate earlier this year, to account for recent unprecedented population growth because of immigration, he pegged the shortfall at closer to seven million homes.

If that’s true, then getting to housing affordability doesn’t just mean a doubling of the pace of home building. It would take a quadrupling.

The Trudeau government’s sudden burst of furious housing announcements – plus the suggestion that the resistance of some provinces is all that stands between Canada and sweet affordability – may deliver political dividends in the run-up to a 2025 election.

However, the overnight erection of a glittering skyline of new housing policies comes after the government spent years ignoring the growing stresses caused by its immigration choices. That’s partly what got us here.

The Liberals are now saying a lot of the right things on both housing and immigration. It’s a start. But to quote a handwritten note from the PM’s chief of staff, Katie Telford, which was entered into evidence last week at the foreign interference inquiry: “Bragging is not doing.”

Source: Is the Trudeau government overselling how much housing it can build? Yes

Urback: According to Justin Trudeau, Justin Trudeau is fear-mongering on immigration,

Keller: The Trudeau government’s housing promises can’t fix a crisis of its own making

Good use of pointed satire to highlight the hypocrisy or wilful (?) blindness:

Someone, somewhere, appears to have taken a blowtorch to Canada’s immigration system. It’s a mess. We have too many people, and not enough homes, not enough transit, not enough health care infrastructure. International students are lining up at food banks and homeless shelters. Canadians’ attitudes on immigration are becoming more negative.

Who set fire to our once-enviable immigration system? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on a mission to find out. Just as soon as he gets all of this soot out of his hair.

Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Mr. Trudeau laid out the facts. “Over the past few years we’ve seen a massive spike in temporary immigration … that has grown at a rate far beyond what Canada has been able to absorb,” he said. He gave an example: in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants; today, it’s 7.5 per cent. “That’s something we need to get back under control,” he said, adding that temporary immigration has “caused so much pressure in our communities.”

A few years ago, someone named Justin Trudeau would have accused Mr. Trudeau of fear-mongering for making these sorts of remarks about immigration. In fact, he saidexactly that when, for example, Conservative MP Steven Blaney asked about the massive backlog in immigration applications amid a wave of asylum seekers in 2018. “It is completely irresponsible of the Conservatives to arouse fears and concerns about our immigration system and refugees,” Mr. Trudeau said at the time.

“The reason for the delays is that the Harper Conservatives spent 10 years cutting our immigration services and getting rid of the employees who process applications,” he continued. “They did not manage our immigration system responsibly.”…

Source: Opinion: According to Justin Trudeau, Justin Trudeau is fear-mongering on immigration

Less clever, but equally pointed:

 

The only way to bring housing supply and demand back into a more equitable balance, at least in the next few years, is to lower demand. And the only way to do that is for the Trudeau government to retrace its hasty steps on temporary foreign residents. That is what the government has promised. That is what it has to do.

Source: The Trudeau government’s housing promises can’t fix a crisis of its own making

My reflections on this change of direction by the PM, and the related push on housing, is that it feels like fin de régime flailing around and desperation.

The change brings to mind, one of my favourite scenes from one of my favourite movies, Casablanca:

  • Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds? [Vote me out?]
  • Captain Renault: I’m shocked! Shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. [immigration has grown too fast]
  • [a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
  • Croupier: Your winnings, sir. [poll numbers]
  • Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much. [someone, somewhere else, broke immigration]
  • [aloud]
  • Captain Renault: Everybody out at once….