Keller: Economically speaking, we’re all living in Brian Mulroney’s Canada [immigration]

2024/03/04 Leave a comment

Fair observation. Harper conservatives also maintained levels during 2008 financial crisis. Unclear whether Poilievre will maintain current plan of 500,000 new Permanent Residents by 2015 or not, not to mention curbing the steep rise in temporary workers and international students:

…There’s one more legacy of the Mulroney era that never gets talked about: immigration.

Until the early 1960s, immigration to this country was largely restricted to Europeans and Americans. Then, under John Diefenbaker’s Progressive Conservatives, Canada for the first time opened itself to the world, adopting a race-neutral immigration policy.

A quarter-century later, Mr. Mulroney’s PCs made a second big change to immigration, by moving to permanently increase annual immigration levels, regardless of economic conditions. Until then, Canada’s quotas had fluctuated year-to-year. In the boom times of 1967, for example, a Liberal government admitted 223,000 new Canadians. But numbers were sharply reduced under Pierre Trudeau, reaching a low point of just 84,000 arrivals in 1985.

The Mulroney government decided to not only steeply raise the annual targets, but to keep them there. In 1993, Canada accepted just shy of 257,000 immigrants.

The Chrétien Liberals would scale back those numbers, but only slightly. For most of the Chrétien era, the number of immigrants remained north of 200,000 a year, and at around 0.7 per cent of the population. That continued through the Harper era.

The Mulroney decision, paired with the Diefenbaker decision, slowly changed this place. The Canada of a couple of generations ago often talked about itself as the product of two founding peoples, British and French. Such phrasing now sounds anachronistic, and it is. But in the early 1980s, the visible minority population was less than 5 per cent of the national population.

Today, that figure is closer to 30 per cent. The mayors of Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary are all visible minorities, three of them are immigrants – and nobody cares. That too is part of the Mulroney legacy.

source: Economically speaking, we’re all living in Brian Mulroney’s Canada

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Keller: The Trudeau government needs more than words to restore the immigration consensus

2024/02/28 Leave a comment

Keller continues his well founded critique of immigration policies and highlights, as others have done, the mismatch between immigration and housing (I would add healthcare and infrastructure) timelines and the need to downsize temporary migration and other measures:

… Ending the severe mismatch between housing demand and supply, in this decade rather than the next (or the one after that), means addressing the cause of the spike in demand. It means significantly downsizing the temporary foreign worker program, downsizing and smartening up the student visa program, and things like reintroducing visa requirements for Mexican tourists, which the Trudeau government removed in 2015, and which has led to tens of thousands of refugee claimants arriving at Canadian airports.

Canada had an immigration consensus from the 1960s to 2015. The Trudeau government broke it. Mr. Miller can restore it. But des belles paroles won’t be enough.

Source: The Trudeau government needs more than words to restore the immigration consensus

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Keller: Justin Trudeau has the power to fix one of his biggest political problems. Joe Biden isn’t so lucky

2024/02/19 Leave a comment

Not as easy as portrayed but definitely compared to the USA:

….Mr. Biden and Democrats want to address this. This year, after Senate Democrats gave in to long-standing Republican demands and agreed to a tough border bill, the President said he would gladly sign it the minute it hit his desk.

Former president Donald Trump responded by ordering Republicans to kill the bill. He wants disorder at the border.

And Canada?

Our immigration surge – a mix of low-wage temporary foreign workers, schools peddling visas to aspiring low-wage workers, and refugee claimants arriving as alleged tourists from countries such as Mexico – is having effects similar to those in the U.S. Similar, but bigger.

On the one hand, GDP is higher than it would have been. But GDP per person has been shrinking since 2022. A country with a history of lagging productivity is lagging more than ever. Each piece of pie is getting smaller.

And population growth has been so large and fast that rental housing vacancies are at a record low, and heading lower. Rents are very high relative to wages, and unlikely to moderate any time soon. Ditto housing prices. Voters have noticed.

Mr. Biden can’t fix his immigration problem because Mr. Trump’s congressional minions won’t let him.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in contrast, has all the tools to rewrite the story he authored.

Most of what needs doing – downsizing but up-skilling the student visa program; eliminating temporary foreign work visas outside of agriculture and high-wage jobs; reimposing visa requirements on countries such as Mexico; returning permanent immigration to a focus on skilled immigrants – is up to the executive in the Canadian system.

If he wants to, the PM can make like Nike, and Just Do It.

Source: Justin Trudeau has the power to fix one of his biggest political problems. Joe Biden isn’t so lucky

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Keller: On immigration, the sum of Canada’s special interests is not the national interest

2024/02/10 Leave a comment

Nails it (money quote: “Even the government appears to have been largely unaware of its own actions, and even more ignorant of their consequences.”:

…When government makes policy, it usually consults with all of the stakeholders. It takes notes. It aims to please. And on temporary immigration, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall because he did exactly what all the king’s stakeholders and all the king’s lobbyists told him to do.

The business lobby said there was an economy-wide labour shortage – there isn’t, but sit through enough business stakeholder meetings and you’ll believe it. The solution was unlimited recruitment of low-wage overseas workers.

Colleges and universities said they needed an ever-growing number of student visas, their provincial masters mostly agreed, and business applauded because visa students were another low-wage work stream. A Quebec government that loudly demanded lower immigration quietly pressed for ever more temporary foreign workers. And progressive activists pushed for the lowering of all barriers to coming to Canada or remaining.

Year after year, the Liberals gave the stakeholders what they wanted. In a government-as-client-service model, it read like a success story.

But the sum of a bunch of narrow special interests does not add up to the national interest. It’s a pity this government didn’t figure that out sooner.

Source: On immigration, the sum of Canada’s special interests is not the national interest

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Keller: Here’s a crazy idea: How about a student visa program whose main beneficiary is Canada

2024/02/03 Leave a comment

Not crazy and worth having this more extreme approach as a basis to compare current and future policies:

….Turning things around calls for doing far more than what federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced last month.

Allowing visa students to work an unlimited number of hours off-campus fed the business model for unscrupulous educational operators. Mr. Miller says that in the spring, he may reduce the work limit to 30 hours a week. He needs to go much farther. To end the tuition-for-minimum-wage-work trade, he has to end the right of visa students to work, with the exception of those in highly-paid jobs.

Similarly, post-graduation work permits should only go to those who’ve been offered a highly-paid job. All other graduates will have to leave Canada on graduation, their tuition having purchased education but nothing more. If you have a job offer paying at least, say, $75,000, you get the work permit. If not, you don’t.

One more thing: the feds should raise the cost of a student visa. It currently costs just $150. How about $5,000?

Those three simple steps would separate Canada’s educational wheat from the chaff. And it would do so without provinces and the feds having to micromanage which programs of study are worthy of student visas or work visas or post-graduation visas – a system rife with lobbying and the potential for corruption.

What I’m proposing would put the weakest institutions, public and private, out of the student-visa business. But it would strengthen the strongest and highest-quality institutions, including skilled-trades training programs, and even open new doors for them….

Source: Here’s a crazy idea: How about a student visa program whose main beneficiary is Canada

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Keller: Thanks to Marc Miller, the immigration system is (slightly) less broken, Clark: Ottawa finally acts on international student visas, setting a challenge for Doug Ford

2024/01/24 Leave a comment

Two of the better assessments:

Every journey begins with a first step. The Trudeau government has finally taken a step toward fixing what it broke in Canada’s immigration system. This is not the end of the trip, not even close. But it’s a start.

Ottawa didn’t do the breaking on its own. The provinces helped. So did business.

…Mr. Miller has finally taken a first step to repairing the immigration system. All he has to do now is keep walking.

Source: Thanks to Marc Miller, the immigration system is (slightly) less broken

Still, Mr. Ford faces a challenge now. The days of unlimited student visas are numbered, so his government has to decide which schools will get them. Will they prioritize top-notch talent, or keep business going for a low-standard industry?

Of course, Ontario’s failing shouldn’t let the federal Liberals off the hook. They were asleep while the number of temporary residents ballooned. It took ages for the Liberals to even see that massive policy failure while the damaging consequences were piling up on so many ordinary folks.

Finally, albeit belatedly, Mr. Miller has acted. Over to you, Mr. Ford.

Source: Ottawa finally acts on international student visas, setting a challenge for Doug Ford

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Keller: How the Liberals can fix the immigration system that they broke

2024/01/20 Leave a comment

Generally reasonable proposals but unlikely that the government will be courageous (or desperate) enough to rescind some of its policies that have resulted in the shift of public attitudes being more critical of immigration levels:

Step One: Greatly reduce the number of student visas….

Step Two: Restrict the temporary foreign worker stream to a small number of high-end jobs, not millions of low-paying jobs….

Step Three: Rely on the points system to decide on who gets permanent residency. Again, we should be prioritizing immigrants with high skills and educations, and the best shots at earning higher incomes than the average Canadian. …

Step Four: Control the border. A wide and welcoming door, paired with high walls, was an unspoken basis of the Canadian immigration consensus. It was well understood by previous governments, Liberal and Conservative alike….

Liberal brain trust, the choice is yours.

You can restore the national consensus by fixing the parts of the immigration system you broke. Or you can stay the course – which won’t be good for the economy, productivity, housing, higher education, inequality or national unity, but which may give you a wedge issue for the next election.

You can fix the problem, but lose the wedge. Or you can wait for the Conservatives to criticize your immigration mess, and then you can try to weaponize that criticism, turning a practical question of how to run the immigration system for the benefit of Canadians into a moral issue, in which any questioning of your immigration policy and levels will be defined, by you, as racist.

For the sake of the country, choose the first course.

Source: How the Liberals can fix the immigration system that they broke

Globe editorial reinforces some of this points, with the following punchline:

As Mr. Miller has seemingly recognized, the immigration system has indeed spun out of control. Quick action is needed to restore its stability: not in coming months, but now.

Source: The Liberals’ half-measures won’t fix a broken immigration system

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Keller: An immigration system that’s lowering national wealth? Yes, the Liberals did that

2024/01/17 Leave a comment

Along with the recent Canada stuck in ‘population trap,’ needs to reduce immigration, bank economists say, another piece by Keller noting the perverse impact on productivity of current policies:

The Trudeau government has the power to fix all of this, but as problems have grown and grown some more, it has chosen its usual course: inaction. It has run its mouth and its Twitter, while doing nothing. This past weekend, Mr. Miller did a round of TV interviews, threatening to do some undefined something, “in the first quarter or first half” of this year. Maybe.

Let’s get serious already. How do we get Canada back on track, with a pro-immigration, pro-economic-growth policy? That’s my next column.

Source: An immigration system that’s lowering national wealth? Yes, the Liberals did that

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Keller:The day DEI World entered Canadian politics

2024/01/13 Leave a comment

Keller has shifted from valid critiques of current immigration policies to critiques of DEI, given the blinders by some to anti-semitism, with one of the more blatant examples. Another one might be the KOJO Institute as their website does not mention anti-semitism based upon a word search:

….But today’s anti-racism training often isn’t at all like that. Which is how you end up with Laith Marouf. He worked for an organization that received federal funding to deliver anti-racism education, and whose contract was terminated after it came to light that he was posting antisemitic content online.

In Liberal World, claiming to be against racism, while discriminating on the basis of race, is not only wrong, it’s a philosophical contradiction. But DEI World’s anti-racism doesn’t work that way. It starts by putting groups of people into either the good racial box or the bad one, so that one can decide who is oppressed and oppressor, and who is entitled to what sort of treatment.

That’s how you end up with people posting things online that, in Liberal World, are clearly racist – and yet these same people, their minds in DEI World, sincerely believe themselves to be anti-racists.

Source: The day DEI World entered Canadian politics

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Keller: Pierre Poilievre’s housing movie: What it gets right and wrong, and what was left unsaid

2023/12/09 Leave a comment

Indeed. While I understand his fear of being labelled xenophobic by the Liberals and others, this may be less of an issue that immigrants are also suffering from high housing costs and availability issues and Focus Canada indicated that immigrants have higher levels of cancer over immigration levels than non-immigrants:

Which brings me back to the elephant in the room, which Housing hell never mentions: immigration.

In the long run, over decades and centuries, Canada can match housing supply to housing demand, regardless of whether the national population is 40 million or 400 million. But in the here and now, a surge in new arrivals, particularly since the pandemic – with one million new residents in 2022, and likely more this year – has introduced housing demand at a far faster pace than supply can be built.

It’s simple math. There’s no getting around it. And both the Prime Minister and the man after his job would rather not talk about it.

Source: Pierre Poilievre’s housing movie: What it gets right and wrong, and what was left unsaid

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