Counterterrorism strategy: Take the long view – The Globe and Mail

2015/05/27 Leave a comment

Two interesting pieces on counter radicalization strategies, with both focusing on the Prevent aspect.

Wesley Wark notes the risks of politic rhetoric with respect to radicalization and the relative neglect of the Government’s Prevent element (compared to the other elements of the national security strategy, Deny, Detect and Respond):

The more that political rhetoric swirls around national-security threats such as the foreign-fighter problem, the more difficult it will be to establish the exact scale of the threat. In reality, the danger posed by the relatively small Canadian foreign-fighter stream is threefold – it bolsters IS psychologically; it conjures up concerns about battle-hardened veterans who might return to Canada to incite and commit terrorism; it puts Muslim communities in Canada under an unwanted spotlight and may create a new set of tensions for them as they work to contribute to de-radicalization measures. Our biggest concern is not about how we prevent Canadian foreign fighters from blowing things up in Iraq and Syria, or even blowing things up if they manage to return to Canada, but how we stop them from blowing up community stability and inciting tensions within Canada.

When the government first announced a counterterrorism strategy in 2012, it used a model borrowed from the British, with four “pillars”: Prevent, Detect, Deny, Respond. The respond pillar is meant to ensure a capacity to deal with terrorist attacks that occur on our soil. When the CT strategy was launched, there hadn’t been any. Now there have been two – the attacks in Quebec and near Parliament Hill in October of 2014. The one good thing the October attacks brought to light is the degree to which Canadian society poses a strong, innate resilience to terrorist violence.

…But what about Prevent? Here, the greatest challenge lies, and potentially our greatest weakness. Some will always slip through the cracks, notably the convicted “Toronto 18” member, Ali Mohamed Dirie, whose incarceration and subsequent release did nothing to dissuade him; who obtained false identity documentation, travelled to Syria and was killed in the fighting in 2013. We risk failure on the “prevention” front if the RCMP’s efforts at community engagement do not gain a stronger foothold, if CSIS is too emboldened by its soon-to-be-granted “disruption” mandate and if the government (of whatever stripe after October, 2015) fails to find a better way to justify Canada’s actions in the world, especially its international efforts against terrorist groups.

Counterterrorism: Is it working? – The Globe and Mail.

Although Zekulin does not mention the word Prevent, he essentially echoes other critics of the Government for its apparently exclusive focus on security measures rather than the ‘softer’ prevention approaches:

As long as IS exists, their message will continue to spread. This has the potential to create additional numbers of young Canadians with whom their message might resonate. Several months ago, I wrote that Canada’s counterterrorism strategy needed to address two separate but interconnected aspects in order to meet the threat posed by IS. These included measures to deal with the imminent threat posed by the current cohort of radicalized Canadians and a counter-radicalization strategy to prevent or at least minimize the next generation of radicalized young Canadians.

IS is selling a product – themselves and their vision of what the world should look like. A counter-radicalization strategy is based on challenging the messages espoused by the group and its supporters. We need to develop our message, identify the most credible messengers and the most efficient and effective way to distribute it. This will at least begin to counter IS’s efforts. We recognize that this approach will not deter every individual. However, as our messages circulate and gain momentum, it will become increasingly difficult for IS’s perverted ideas to find fertile minds. The end goal is to minimize the number of individuals who might adopt the ideas and become a threat in the future.

We cannot be lulled into a false sense of security by our recent successes. IS’s ideas pose the real threat and they continue to circulate, incubate and entrench themselves in our society. Our intelligence and law-enforcement agencies have done an admirable job, but we need to ask ourselves whether our current strategy is sustainable. Financially, our government has limited resources; it is not realistic to continuously increase our investigative capacity every few months. We run the risk of falling into a never-ending cycle where those we identify and disrupt are quickly replaced by others. Eventually, some individuals or incidents will slip through the cracks. In the context of the current threat, that means very bad things will happen.

Counterterrorism strategy: Take the long view – The Globe and Mail.

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Dual-national jihadists face loss of Australian citizenship, but not sole nationals yet

2015/05/27 Leave a comment

Out of the Canadian Conservative government (and UK) playbook, with interesting internal disagreement over whether or not this should include revocation in case of statelessness:

Tony Abbott will push ahead with proposed changes to strip dual citizens of their Australian nationality if they are suspected of terrorism, but has deferred a decision on strong new powers against sole nationals after a cabinet backlash.

The prime minister confirmed a bill to be introduced to parliament in coming weeks would grant the immigration minister the discretion to strip dual nationals of their citizenship if they were deemed to be involved in terrorism, even if the person had not been convicted of an offence.

But the government is yet to settle on a position on punishing Australians who hold no other citizenship after several ministers raised significant concerns in cabinet on Monday evening.

It is understood Abbott backed the push by the immigration minister, Peter Dutton, for the power to strip sole nationals of their Australian citizenship in cases where they were entitled to apply for citizenship in another country.

But the attorney general, George Brandis, the defence minister, Kevin Andrews, and the communications minister, Malcolm Turnbull, are believed to be among numerous ministers who raised concerns during the cabinet discussion.

Fairfax Media reported that the foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, had also questioned whether another country would be likely to approve a citizenship application for a person from whom Australia had deprived citizenship.

In an interview with Sky News on Tuesday, Brandis emphasised that the government had not made any decisions about second-generation Australians and had instead opted to “lead a national conversation about the rights and obligations associated with citizenship”. This will begin with the release of a discussion paper for community feedback on Tuesday.

Dual-national jihadists face loss of Australian citizenship, but not sole nationals yet | Australia news | The Guardian.

New Zealand Prime Minister Kay takes a different tack with respect to an Australian/New Zealander dual national:

NZ ‘unlikely’ to strip woman’s citizenship – PM

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The Montreal would-be jihadi 10, and what comes next – Globe editorial

2015/05/23 Leave a comment

Reminder by The Globe editorial board and the need for de-radicalization or deprogramming initiatives, not just passport confiscation and other security measures:

Incarceration isn’t an option without clear evidence of criminal intent. The seizure of passports is a first step in isolating potential jihadis and limiting their ability to act on their beliefs, but it can’t be the last step. In some cases, the RCMP has sought peace bonds against suspects, requiring them to wear a monitoring device and limiting their social-media activity.

Yet we know from Mr. Couture-Rouleau that surveillance is no guarantee of public safety. With the 10 youths in Montreal, and others like them, the catch-and-release approach of passport confiscation is little more than a placebo – it draws attention and buys time until we come up with a better solution.

Teenagers in rebellion, many of whom are as likely to be idealists, however misguided, as aspiring holy warriors, would benefit far more from intelligent dialogue, education and a chance to change their minds. A sincere attempt at reprogramming is required – through conversations that counter the allure of ISIS with both persuasive arguments and an empathetic understanding of what it is that can drive young students to such a state. Removing a passport may be necessary. By itself, it’s insufficient.

The Montreal would-be jihadi 10, and what comes next – The Globe and Mail.

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Chris Selley: If Canadians want to fight for ISIL, why stop them? Because we take care of our own garbage

2015/05/22 Leave a comment

Chris Selley on stopping would-be jihadist travel:

It’s understandable some are wondering why we’re implementing these de facto exit controls on people determined to bring down the West and all for which it stands. If they want to leave, should we not thank them and wish them a speedy demise? Would we not prefer these people wreak their havoc overseas?

In a word: no. No because Canada is at war with ISIL; it is on the side of the people for whom life is a living hell thanks to ISIL; and we can hardly shrug if our own citizens decide they want to sign up with the enemy. No because grown-up countries take care of their own garbage. And no because it’s reasonable to hope the havoc they can wreak here is vastly less than they could in Syria or Iraq.

It’s certainly disturbing that ISIL’s savage nihilism strikes anyone in the West as an enticing prospect. But accepting that reality, the news (fingers crossed) is mostly good: Canadian police are clearly aware of the threat; they are clearly seized with nipping it in the bud, and apparently not wanting for legal measures to do so; and in at least one of the cases from Montreal over the weekend, they reportedly had help from someone close to the suspect. This suggests those who oppose terrorism (i.e., very nearly everyone) are willing to cooperate with authorities to prevent it. This should hardly be surprising, given the stakes — “My son is now in a butcher shop,” the father of one of Quebec’s ISIL volunteers told CBC in March. “We do not eat, we do not sleep …. Our lives have plunged into horror” — but it is reassuring nevertheless.

It’s also worth considering the havoc we fear. It is not to diminish their crimes or the sacrifice of their victims to remember that Couture-Rouleau and Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, the Parliament Hill gunman, killed one man each. According to a newly launched public database created by several Canadian universities, in the last roughly 50 years there were 469 fatalities in Canada from terrorist and extremist events. Of those, 329 were on Air India flight 182. Only 10 others were religiously motivated, according to the database, and only one of those — Couture-Rouleau’s attack — was motivated by Islamic extremism. Add Zehaf-Bibeau if you prefer and you get a whopping total of two victims of this ostensibly mortal threat to the Canadian homeland. Ever.

Yes, those victims were recent. Yes, the threat is global. Yes, it is reasonable to think that a movement capable of enticing young Canadians to immigrate to hell on earth could convince them to kill a few people here at home. Yes, it would only take one well-planned or lucky attack to add significantly to the tally. Yes, it is reasonable to demand vigilance.

But evidence suggests we are being vigilant, and that it’s working. In a world with ISIL in it, that’s about all you can hope for. Among the many knocks against the Conservatives’ anti-terrorism legislation is that it could actually impede frontline anti-terror efforts: speech restrictions could deter terrorists from helpfully sharing their plans online, or an imam from inviting the RCMP’s counter-violent extremism team to interact with a parishioner who’s going off the rails. The successes we see this week highlight just what’s at stake.

Chris Selley: If Canadians want to fight for ISIL, why stop them? Because we take care of our own garbage

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Quebec to table anti-radicalization bill after 10 teens arrested at Trudeau airport

2015/05/22 Leave a comment

Will be interesting to see and contrast with federal government approach and if it includes greater emphasis on “softer” prevention measures, not just security provisions:

“We always are concerned about this, given the fact that it seems to be our youth — born here — in our learning institutions,” said Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard on Wednesday. “That is why we will come very soon with a policy that is going to be broad, that will also include the prevention, detection and also other measures from the legislative point of view.”

The government did not elaborate on any details about the proposed legislation, but said it plans to table its bill before June 12.

Quebec to table anti-radicalization bill after 10 teens arrested at Trudeau airport – Montreal – CBC News.

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Half a century of terrifying Canada: Before jihadists, other extremists carried out hundreds of attacks

2015/05/20 Leave a comment

A good reminder that violent extremism is more common, and with more varied motives (e.g., various religions, Quebec separatism), than the current focus on Islam-inspired extremism:

The Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia shot a Turkish diplomat in Ottawa in 1982. Neo-Nazi skinheads beat a man to death with baseball bats in Montreal in 1992, believing he was gay. A Vancouver doctor who performed abortions was shot in his kitchen in 1994.

These are some of the attacks catalogued in a first-of-its-kind database of Canadian terrorism launched at Carleton University last week. Available online to researchers, policy makers and the public, the inventory was created to promote a more scientific understanding of Canada’s experience with terrorism.

Described by its creators as “the largest collection of incidents involving terrorism or violent extremism in Canada that’s ever been compiled,” it will be analyzed for years to come, but it already has something to say about the past half-century of Canadian terror: there has been a lot of it committed by a lot of different groups.

“Canada has had much more terrorism than most Canadians are familiar with,” says project leader James O. Ellis, a research affiliate at the Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security and Society, based at the University of British Columbia.

“I think I’ve also been surprised at the diversity from which violence has come.”

The 1,815 incidents, which caused 450 deaths, were carried out by religious groups, ethnic groups, separatists, leftists, rightists, supremacists, environmentalists and anarchists. Ellis said the “cosmopolitan, diversified demography of Canada is reflected in the variety of violence that’s occurred here.”

The Canadian Incident Database, online at extremism.ca, was put together in a year-and-a-half by a team from UBC, Simon Fraser University, Carleton University, the University of Waterloo and the Université de Montreal, with funding from Public Safety Canada and Defence Research and Development Canada.

Half a century of terrifying Canada: Before jihadists, other extremists carried out hundreds of attacks

Database link (which unfortunately does not allow searching by motivation/reason):

extremism.ca

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How afraid should we be of Islamic State? 

2015/05/12 Leave a comment

Good piece by Mitch Potter in the Star regarding the over-blown hyping of the  threat and risks of ISIS:

Yet even here, some researchers doubt those risks match up with the warnings, given that the number of Canadians known to have joined ISIS is barely enough to mount a decent hockey game.

“The Islamic State is a threat to Canada — but it is wildly overblown,” says Amarnath Amarasingam, a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada postdoctoral fellow who co-directs a study of Canadian foreign fighters at the University of Waterloo.

“By our count, there are about 60 Canadians who went to fight, of which 15 are already dead. And not all are with the Islamic State — some are fighting for the Kurds, some are fighting for the Free Syrian Army, for nationalist reasons, not as global jihadists who would present a threat to Canada.”

A similar low-threat assessment for Europe emerged this week in a research paper for Holland’s Clingendael Institute of International Relations, which concluded that, “although concerns have run high following the recent attacks in Paris, the threat of violence carried out by foreign fighters to Europe, while present, is largely overstated.”

Co-author Daniel Byman, a professor of security studies at Georgetown University, goes further in his assessment, emphasizing that while Europe must provide “ongoing resources to security and intelligence services to keep the threat low,” it should also “avoid reactive policies such as systematic prosecution and imprisonment of returnees.

“Some returnees must be imprisoned immediately and others monitored, but governments should also channel resources towards community-led programs emphasizing the rehabilitation and reintegration of returned fighters,” Byman writes.

In the Canadian context, it is difficult to imagine the general public embracing such a nuanced approach when the government itself, with more than a little help from the media, is sounding the direst of warnings. But that too is addressed in the Clingendael recommendations, which urge governments to “take care not to overstate the threat of foreign fighters and take steps to reassure citizens that the risk is real but limited.”

To the University of Waterloo’s Amarasingam, that’s the missing piece in Ottawa’s approach to the problem: we get all the warnings, minus the reassurance.

“I understand what the government and CSIS and the RCMP are trying to do,” says Amarasingam. “They want to ensure that in the unlikely event that Canada ever experiences an attack like 9/11, it won’t tear apart the fabric of our society and have us turn on each other.

“They want to plant the seed of possibility in our consciousness to prepare us. But when you raise those warnings — when you say ‘We’re not a multicultural haven immune from this; we are at risk’ — you also need to temper that message and provide the context that the risk of that kind of attack on the streets of Toronto is actually quite low.

“That’s a key piece that Canadians aren’t getting. And the consequence is that the fear is ramped up out of proportion to the actual risk.”

via How afraid should we be of Islamic State? | Toronto Star.

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Shafia, Man who murdered family became jailhouse religious tyrant

2015/05/06 Leave a comment

Interesting account of the prison life and attitudes of Mohammed Shafia:

Canada’s only Muslim prison chaplain would occasionally lead Kingston’s Muslim inmates in Friday prayers. “There would be a general atmosphere of jovial camaraderie among themselves and the non-Muslim,” said Groves, who did psychological counselling at the prison.

But when the Muslim chaplain was frequently absent, it was Shafia who apparently appointed himself spiritual leader and led Friday prayers.

“The normally pleasant atmosphere associated with Muslims gathering for prayers was absent. Inmates on the same range who came to see me expressed fear of him. (About one-third) were not Muslims but believed they dare not refuse to attend Friday prayers. They had no choice. He was an angry little man.”

One, a Christian, “felt so intimated by Shafia and some of his lieutenants that he chose to give up his relative freedom of movement on the range and in the general population for a much more restricted life on a social isolation range. He advised me that confinement was worth it to avoid the hassle of dealing with ‘the Muslims.’

“This form of intimidation is something one finds routinely with zealot extremists. In other circumstances it’s called bullying.”

Man who murdered family became jailhouse religious tyrant | Ottawa Citizen.

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Hussein Hamdani says federal election politics behind his suspension

2015/05/04 Leave a comment

Hard not to believe Hamdani, given all the vetting he has been through and his overall track record as a member of the CCRS.

I always found him thoughtful in his contributions when I attended the CCRS, both in his appreciation of some of the factors behind radicalization as well as suggestions regarding what policies and programs could be more effective.

Consultative and advisory bodies are more useful when there is a diversity of views.

While I can understand the Government’s sensitivity towards his public support for the Liberals, it would have been more honest to list that as the reason then try to dredge up accusations from 20 years ago.

And even if true (which I doubt given the source), who among us has not something in our past that today we are uncomfortable with.

More anti-Canadian Muslim wedge politics?

Minister of Public Safety Steven Blaney suspended Hussein Hamdani from the Cross-Cultural Roundtable on National Security this week.

Blaney’s office is looking into questions raised by the French TVA network about politically charged statements it alleges Hamdani made as a university student, and allegations about radical organizations that it says Hamdani had associations with.

Blaney’s office did not explain why it was taking the action now, when it acknowledges it has known about the allegations for “some time.”

But Hamdani told CBC News he believes the decision is politically motivated, and denies all the allegations outright.

“I’ve been vetted and I’ve received various levels of security clearance over the years. So to have this come out now, to me, it clearly has political motivations that are attributed to it,” he said. All members of the roundtable are vetted by CSIS and the RCMP, he said.

“Perhaps they’re not pleased that I’m very critical of Bill C-51,” Hamdani said. “Perhaps the government is displeased that I have been supporting Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.” Bill C-51 is the Conservative government’s controversial proposed anti-terror legislation.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Blaney called the allegations against Hamdani “very concerning.”

“This individual’s membership on the Cross-Cultural Roundtable on National Security has been suspended immediately pending a review of the facts. While questions surrounding this individual’s links to radical ideology have circulated for some time, it was hoped that he could be a positive influence to promote Canadian values. It is now becoming clear this may not have been the case.”

The suspension is a blow to the reputation of a lawyer who has been a prominent Hamilton leader, considered a moderate voice on Muslim issues and whom a local business magazine named in its 40 under 40 roundup in 2012.

Cross-Cultural Roundtable chair Dr. Myrna Lashley told CBC News she was shocked by the allegations.

“That’s not the Mr. Hamdani that I know. I’ve never heard any of these things that was reported.”

Hussein Hamdani says federal election politics behind his suspension – Latest Hamilton news – CBC Hamilton.

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Scant evidence prisons are terrorist breeding grounds – Macleans.ca

2015/04/30 Leave a comment

Sharp contrast to France (and likely UK) where this is a serious issue and good to see this kind of research taking place notwithstanding some of the political fearmongering:

Federal prisons are not the hotbeds of radical extremism some make them out to be, according to research by the Correctional Service of Canada.

And compared to other inmates, radicalized offenders are more likely to have moderate-to-high potential for rejoining society.

The preliminary findings emerge from an ongoing, multi-year collaboration between the prison service and Defence Research and Development Canada aimed at developing a solid basis to assess and manage jailed extremists.

The Canadian Press used the Access to Information Act to obtain a 2014 summary of a series of academic studies undertaken by the Correctional Service’s research branch. Internal notes suggest the presentation, Radicalized Offenders, was prepared for the deputy ministers’ committee on national security.

“Though concern over the spread of violent ideologies has been expressed, this concern is supported by limited qualitative, anecdotal evidence,” says the presentation.

“Researchers have concluded that many of those who adopt extremist Islamist ideologies during incarceration often disregard these beliefs upon release.”

However, the presentation adds, there is a need for a greater understanding of just how susceptible inmates are to being radicalized behind bars.

One of the gunmen in the bloody attack on Paris-based satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo last January had come under the sway of a convicted terrorist while in prison – the sort of incident that has fuelled concern about the spread of radical ideas in jail.

As of this month, there were 19 offenders in Canadian federal prisons who had at least one affiliation with an extremist or terrorist organization, including racial extremists, the Correctional Service says. Of these, nine had been convicted of at least one terrorism-related offence.

Researchers found that compared to other inmates, radicalized offenders are less likely to be Canadian citizens and more likely to belong to a visible minority group.

They are also younger, better educated, more likely to have a history of stable employment and less likely to have had previous tangles with the criminal justice system. Radicalized offenders also have fewer mental health issues and problems with substance abuse.

Overall, they are more likely “to be assessed as having moderate-high reintegration potential,” the presentation says.

A review of the research literature identified several factors that might make someone vulnerable to being radicalized, including poor support at home, a history of family violence, negative attitudes towards conventional society and a tendency to lodge grievances.

Though more research is needed, focus group discussions with staff working in prisons and the community identified two distinct groups of susceptible offenders.

The first type were socially unattached, unskilled and likely to be recruited to carry out a group’s mundane “dirty work.” The second kind were socially connected, educated and recruited for their skills and abilities.

Scant evidence prisons are terrorist breeding grounds – Macleans.ca.

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