While I believe that AI holds great potential, this analysis is overly optimistic in the shorter term. Longer-term, much more likely:
AI-enabled automation may hold the key to solving three major problems: immigration, low fertility rates and retirements. But strangely, automation is not a planned policy solution to these and related problems. Why there were all sorts of problems with how the US federal government handled the Covid 19 pandemic, Operation Warp Speed was not one of them. Should AI-enabled automation receive the same kind of investment priority the vaccine received – instead of how defensively everyone treats “automation”? Remember that Operation Warp Speed “was a public-private partnership initiated by the United States government to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.” Is this a model for investments in AI and automation?
AI & Immigration
For example, instead of making economic arguments for why the US (and other countries) need immigrants, why not sidestep the argument with a massive federal investment in automation designed to contribute directly to economic growth? Is there a public-private partnership opportunity here? Obviously many companies are pursuing automation at breakneck speed. They want to save money and increase profitability by reducing their dependency on humans. Progress is impressive. But the suggestion here is a massive public-private partnership to accelerate and focus automation on the economic holes immigration is intended to fill.
Obviously, there are many reasons why people come to the US and other developed countries. The economic argument is not to diminish any of those motivations. Instead, the hypothesis is that the economic arguments around immigration might be framed very differently than they are today. We know, for example, that many immigrants come to the US to avoid political prosecution, violence and because they want better lives for their families. All good, but the economic arguments that politicians make about the need for more immigration might be influenced by warp speed investments in automation. Of course, since “politicians” are heat-seeking missiles to money and power, it’s impossible to know if they’d even entertain arguments that don’t perfectly fit their personal agendas. But that aside, there are opportunities to leverage AI-enabled automation to address some of the economic requirements that immigration might – or might not – satisfy.
AI & Low Fertility Rates
Let’s now look at human reproduction:
“The general fertility rate in the United States decreased by 3% from 2022, reaching a historic low. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, following a brief 1% increase from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the rate consistently decreased by 2% annually.”
(Note that “the fertility rate measures the number of live births per 1,000 women within the childbearing age range, often 15-44 years old.”)
What does this mean?
“A prolonged US total fertility rate this low – specifically, a rate substantially below 2 – would lead to slower population growth, which could in turn cause slower economic growth and present fiscal challenges. While the decline presents a fairly new challenge to the United States, other high-income countries have sustained below replacement level fertility for some years now and have attempted policies to mitigate that trend.”
Automation can help mitigate the trends. AI can provide nuanced efficiencies.
Is automation an answer to aging societies? Well, if there’s machine to replace a non-existent human – so long as the human needs to be replaced – is that all bad? All of the worry about aging societies shrinking because of low birth rates can perhaps be relieved through automation.
Retirements
The same argument that applies to low fertility applies to retirements, early or otherwise. What does it matter if someone retires from a job that can be automated?
We’re told that retirements are increasing at a pace never before seen:
“Today, the number of retirees is surging at a remarkable pace, outpacing the influx of new workers. This trend is leading to an unparalleled aging of America’s population, bringing about significant transformations in the workforce, economy, and the global mobility industry.”
Implications?
“The demand for workers continues to be robust, with approximately two job openings available for every unemployed individual. And with more than 75 million baby boomers retiring sooner rather than later, it’s clear that employers will need a strong workforce plan for replacing exiting workers.
“Meeting the workforce gap presents a considerable challenge. Relying solely on Gen X workers is not enough, and many millennials may lack essential work experience. Foreign-born workers could face immigration hurdles, and not all roles are suitable for flexible or remote workers.”
If ever there was a role for automation, this is it.
Automation Policy
I’ve discussed this before:
“Do we need tax preparers? Car salespersons? Loan officers? Automation has only begun, and as more and more employees call it quits, automation may take their place faster than we think. Why wouldn’t Uber want to eliminate their biggest headache – drivers – with autonomous vehicles? Why wouldn’t all companies want to deploy ‘workers’ that work 24/7, never need vacations, never join unions and never get sick? Checkout clerks? Postal workers? Gas station attendants (almost gone now)? And many more.”
Honeywell reports some survey results that focus on robotics:
“The productivity gains that we see from … robotics have increased,” said John Dillon … ‘the technology has gotten better … (and) the cost of not automating has gotten higher.’
“That’s because a warehouse that might typically require 2,000 workers could deploy technologies and warehouse execution software to instead operate with only 200 people.”
Automation may be the answer to many economic problems. In 1982 (!), the government believed in the power of automation through “federal efforts to encourage automation (which included): (1) financial incentives for private sector action; (2) research responsibilities; (3) technology transfer mechanisms; (4) support of engineering education; and (5) the development of standards to facilitate integration of diverse components of automation systems.” But today – 40 years later – here’s the question heard over and over again: “what should the government do about the coming automation apocalypse?”
Automation and its closest friend “AI,” are not the apocalypse. They’re solutions to some tough economic problems the US and developed countries face. Yes, there will be job displacement and perfectly timing the adoption of automation to immigration, fertility rates and retirements is impossible. But the hypotheses should at least be tested. It may be that planned automation can reduce some economic stress — maybe a lot of stress. The technology is ready. The companies are ready. But will the politicians support Operation Automation? Or are they focused on other things?
Multicultural Meanderings 