Federal minister plans to hold consultations this summer on immigration intake

Early test of Liberal government and Minister Diab regarding maintaining or easing restrictions (most of those consulted will ague for the latter):

The federal government will use this summer’s planned consultation on immigration targets to guide future decisions about how many study visas it will issue to international students in the future, Immigration Minister Lena Diab said.

In a recent interview with University Affairs magazine, Diab said the annual immigration levels consultations will reach out to the provinces, university administrators and students themselves, as the government looks to ensure the visa system for students is “sustainable.”

This summer’s annual immigration levels consultations come as multiple universities and colleges face budget constraints after Canada began clawing back on the number of student visas last year amid concerns the number had grown so quickly schools could not provide adequate supports, including housing.

Julie Lafortune, an Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada spokeswoman, says the government expects schools to only accept students they can “reasonably support” by providing housing and other services.

“The annual growth in the number of international students couldn’t be sustained while ensuring students receive the support they need. Study permit applications subject to the cap require an attestation letter from a province or territory,” Lafortune said in an emailed response. 

The current immigration levels plan lays out targets for admitting permanent and temporary residents through 2027, and Lafortune said the upcoming consultations will help the government decide how many newcomers will be admitted in coming years.

Post-secondary institutions across the country are posting deficit budgets this year, laying off staff and cutting programs as international student enrolment drops. Schools had become increasingly reliant on international student fees to balance their books.

Universities Canada president Gabriel Miller previously told The Canadian Press that international student tuition acted as a “stopgap” to make up for years of “inadequate” funding at the provincial and territorial level. …

Source: Federal minister plans to hold consultations this summer on immigration intake

Canada updates list of study programs that qualify international students for work permits

Further tightening:

To better align immigrant selection with Canada’s labour market needs, Ottawa is refining what academic programs are going to qualify international students for the coveted postgraduation work permit.

The Immigration Department has updated its eligibility list, adding 119 new fields of study and removing 178 others based on jobs with long-term shortages. A total of 920 coded programs remain eligible.

The Liberal government has been criticized for the soaring number of international students, who had increasingly used the international education program to come and work in Canada in order to ultimately earn permanent residence in the country.

Many international students enrolled in general programs at institutions that former immigration minister Marc Miller called “diploma mills,” studying in subjects that had no relevance to what’s needed in the labour market.

Last November, the Immigration Department started requiring international students in nondegree programs (programs other than bachelor’s, master’s or doctoral degrees) to complete a program in an eligible field of study to qualify for the postgraduation work permit.

As part of the plan to improve the integrity of the international education system, Miller not only capped the number of study permits issued, but also restricted the access to postgraduation work permits, which could be valid for up to three years and provided the incentive for people to study in Canada.

“It is not the intention of this program to have sham commerce degrees and business degrees that are sitting on top of a massage parlour,” Miller told reporters at a news conference last year. “This is something we need to rein in.” 

According to CIC News, an online media outlet on Canadian immigration, the additional qualifying programs cover health care and social services, education and trades.

However, it said, many of the agricultural and agri-food programs such as farm management and crop production were removed from the list, along with Indigenous education, student counselling and personnel services, environmental studies, building/property maintenance, drywall installation, solar energy technology, airframe mechanics and aircraft maintenance technology, among others.

The Immigration Department says students who applied for a study permit before June 25, 2025, will still be eligible for postgraduation work permits if their field of study was on the list when they applied for their study permit even if it has since been removed.

Source: Canada updates list of study programs that qualify international students for work permits

Québec demande au nouveau gouvernement fédéral sa collaboration en immigration

Of note:

Québec demande à Ottawa de plafonner à 200 000 le nombre de résidents non permanents qui relèvent exclusivement du gouvernement fédéral sur son territoire. Dans une lettre envoyée à ses homologues, le ministre québécois de l’Immigration demande aussi que les régions québécoises soient épargnées par le tour de vis imposé aux entreprises qui embauchent des travailleurs temporaires.

Une « clause de type grand-père » doit s’appliquer aux compagnies en région qui ont embauché des travailleurs étrangers, affirme le ministre Jean-François Roberge dans une lettre dont Le Devoir a obtenu copie.

Le fédéral a décrété l’automne dernier que les employeurs pourront embaucher cette catégorie d’immigrants jusqu’à hauteur de 10 % de leur effectif total, alors que la limite était auparavant de 20 % pour la plupart des industries.

« Le refus de traitement des demandes dans les régions métropolitaines de recensement où le taux de chômage est plus élevé [est une] mesure efficace », explique-t-il. Laval et Montréal n’ont plus besoin de nouveaux travailleurs, alors que « le maintien du niveau de TET [travailleurs étrangers temporaires] dans certaines régions est crucial pour de nombreuses entreprises confrontées à d’importants enjeux de main-d’œuvre ».

Ottawa a déjà commencé à refuser de renouveler des permis temporaires dans les régions centrales de Montréal et de Laval.

Source: Québec demande au nouveau gouvernement fédéral sa collaboration en immigration

Quebec is asking Ottawa to cap the number of non-permanent residents who are exclusively under the federal government’s jurisdiction at 200,000. In a letter sent to his counterparts, the Quebec Minister of Immigration also asked that Quebec regions be spared the screwing imposed on companies that hire temporary workers.

A “grandfather-type clause” must apply to regional companies that have hired foreign workers, says Minister Jean-François Roberge in a letter of which Le Devoir obtained a copy.

The federal government decreed last fall that employers will be able to hire this immigrant category up to 10% of their total workforce, whereas the previous limit was 20% for most industries.

“The refusal to process applications in census metropolitan areas where the unemployment rate is higher [is a] effective measure,” he explains. Laval and Montreal no longer need new workers, while “maintaining the level of TET [temporary foreign workers] in some regions is crucial for many companies facing significant labour issues”.

Ottawa has already begun to refuse to renew temporary permits in the central regions of Montreal and Laval.

Sabrina Maddeaux: Canada’s immigration absolutists are refusing to correct course, no matter the cost 

Although intemperate and unbalanced, fundamentally correct in her critique:

…What is radical is the Century Initiative, whose dogged ideology rejects reality, denying and distorting evidence to pursue their vision, regardless of who else it hurts. There are many examples of this, but some are more egregious than others.

First is the Century Initiative’s claim that any reduction in immigration will harm housing affordability. Of course, it’s actually soaring immigration numbers far in excess of the housing stock that largely contributed to the housing crisis. In 2022, the federal public service warned Trudeau’s government about this consequence. In 2024, BMO economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a client note, “We’ve been firm in our argument that Canada has an excess demand problem in housing…non-permanent resident inflows, on net, have swelled to about 800k in the latest year, with few checks and balances in place, putting tremendous stress on housing supply and infrastructure.”

Yet somehow, the Century Initiative hasn’t gotten the message. Rather, their report argues, “housing supply shortages may be exacerbated due to the important role of immigrants filling critical labour shortages in Canada’s residential home construction industry.” They claim “the construction industry continues to rely heavily on immigrants to fill critical labour market gaps” and cite that “more than 1 in 5 general contractors and builders are immigrants.”

That figure may be true, but it’s also misleading because the immigrants who work as contractors and builders include those who arrived years, if not decades, before the recent immigration surge. In fact, a December 2023 Bank of Canada report on the matter notes, “A rise in immigration to Canada may contribute more to housing imbalances than found in studies of other countries. This is because Canada already has imbalances between its housing supply and demand and because relatively few newcomers join the construction industry.”1

At the same time, the authors state immigrants tend to boost near-term demand for rental accommodation while using funds brought from their home countries to achieve similar home ownership rates to those born in Canada within just a decade.

The bottom line: we know mass immigration greatly boosts housing demand, while data showing any meaningful boost to supply—and certainly enough supply to offset said demand—does not exist.

The Century Initiative also makes the argument that continued mass immigration is essential to Canada’s economic growth and prosperity, writing, “reduced immigration levels will reduce Canada’s nominal GDP by $37 billion over the next 3 years and accelerate Canada’s trajectory toward economic decline.” However, using nominal GDP instead of GDP per capita to measure prosperity conveniently glosses over some stark realities.

Nominal GDP measures the total value of goods and services a country produces. It is easily juiced with higher population numbers and doesn’t account for the distribution of wealth within an economy or individual living standards. This is what GDP per capita, which divides GDP by the total population of the country, does. Canada’s GDP continues to hover around pre-pandemic levels, despite enormous population growth, as we fall further and further behind the U.S. and other peer economies. This is why Canadian economists have called using GDP in this context “a mirage of economic prosperity.”

The Century Initiative’s report goes on to make many, many mentions of “significant labour shortages” in “critical industries” to justify reversing immigration curbs. Yet, most of its attention is spent on attracting U.S. researchers and academics with a vague mention of IT and cybersecurity workers related to national security. There may be opportunities to recruit some true stars in these fields, but it’s unclear why the Century Initiative feels these very rare, exceptional talents couldn’t possibly be accommodated within Mark Carney’s 415,000 new permanent residents per year?

Otherwise, the Century Initiative is pretty mum on so-called labour shortages, because there aren’t many in Canada these days, let alone those that could be solved through more immigration. Rather, reckless immigration policies have suppressed wages in many sectors and contributed to soaring unemployment, especially for younger Canadians.2

Canada couldn’t keep up with the mass immigration targets set by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, and recent reductions are only a first step on the path to correcting the tremendous harm done. This is no longer a controversial statement for most Canadians, regardless of political stripe, because data, lived experience, and a basic understanding of math make it blindingly obvious. If you are already struggling to find enough homes, doctors, and jobs for five people, there’s going to be a problem when you try to accommodate 10.3

Instead of recognizing this and correcting course, the Century Initiative chooses instead to double down on its singular worldview at the expense of reason and the welfare of Canadians—particularly younger ones. They are not big thinkers, but extremists in pursuit of a narrow goal at the expense of all else.

Source: Sabrina Maddeaux: Canada’s immigration absolutists are refusing to correct course, no matter the cost

Over half of Canada’s 2025 study permits going to international students already here

Part of the adjustment process. Will be interesting to see how the provinces priorize new study permits between universities and colleges and by discipline:

The number of new study permits approved in 2025 is expected to drop by 50 per cent from last year as a growing number of the permits are going to international students changing schools or programs, or extending their studies in Canada, according to new projections.

Fewer new international students — the result of a decline in new study permit applications and approval rates — could spell trouble for the postsecondary education sector, which will continue to see enrolment drop for at least the next three years, warns an analysis by ApplyBoard based on the latest government data.

“Onshore students and students extending their studies may help Canada reach its cap targets in 2025, but this trend is unlikely to hold in future years,” said the forecast released Wednesday.

“Search engine data has shown that interest in studying in Canada has fallen at a greater rate than for Australia, the U.K. or the U.S. And with issued study permit extensions now outpacing new study permits, the flow of new international students toward Canadian institutions is weakening.”

Canada should be alarmed by the low new student count, said Meti Basiri, CEO and co-founder of the online marketplace for learning institutions and international students.

“We have effectively closed the tap,” he told the Star. “When your graduation exceeds significantly your entry into the process … two years from now you will have no students because you graduated everyone.” 

Last year, Ottawa capped the number of new study permits issued in order to reduce international student admission by 35 per cent, as Canada’s temporary resident population was soaring. The cap did not apply to students for master’s and doctoral programs or in elementary and secondary schools.

This year, the study permit caps were reduced by another 10 per cent and include those pursuing post-graduate studies in the country.

Leveraging early 2025 study permit data, ApplyBoard projects the total number of study permits issued may reach 420,000, just short of the overall cap (437,000). However, Basiri said that’s deceiving because only 163,000 of these permits are going to new international students, half of the volume admitted in 2024 and nearly 70 per cent fewer than 2023….

Source: Over half of Canada’s 2025 study permits going to international students already here

‘We have to cap population growth’: Ten quotes from Pierre Poilievre’s EXCLUSIVE Hub interview 

As close as we are likely to get in terms of numbers and levels, although he and immigration critic Rempel-Garner will have to be more precise when the government levels plan comes out in November:

“We definitely have to cap population growth. I say population growth because in the immigration–emigration formula, there are two parts to it. There’s the number of people coming in and the number going out.

Natural population growth in Canada is basically zero, in fact, it was negative last quarter. When I say population growth, I’m really talking about immigration minus emigration. We have a lot of people who are supposed to be leaving in the next year or so. They are international students and temporary foreign workers on temporary visas that are going to run out. So we’re going to need more people to leave than to come for the next several years, and that means having negative population growth in that time period.”

Source: ‘We have to cap population growth’: Ten quotes from Pierre Poilievre’s EXCLUSIVE Hub interview

CBSA investigates whether suspected senior Iranian officials were allowed entry into Canada

Screening is always a challenge but good that efforts being made:

Canadian border authorities say they are investigating or taking enforcement action in 66 cases involving suspected senior Iranian officials who may have been allowed into Canada, despite a law that bars them from entering the country or remaining in it. 

Of the 66, the Canada Border Services Agency has so far identified 20 people as inadmissible because they are believed to be senior Iranian officials, according to figures the agency provided to The Globe and Mail. 

The border agency refers such cases to the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, which holds hearings to decide whether someone should be allowed in the country.

One person has so far been removed from Canada for their association with the Iranian government. Two others have been deemed inadmissible and were issued deportation orders. An additional two people were deemed admissible, though the border agency is appealing those decisions. The figures provided to The Globe are current up to June 6. 

“Our strong response to suspected senior officials in the Iranian regime remains in place and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) continues to take action to stop them from seeking or finding safe haven in Canada,” agency spokesperson Rebecca Purdy said in a statement. 

Canada’s record on preventing senior Iranian government officials from entering the country is under increased scrutiny amid the war that broke out between Israel and Iran on June 12. Human-rights activists and lawyers are concerned that Iranian officials, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have already managed to get into Canada and that more will attempt to do so…

Source: CBSA investigates whether suspected senior Iranian officials were allowed entry into Canada

Le plurilinguisme des immigrants est-il nécessairement une menace pour le français?

Good analysis pour la Fête Nationale du Québec:

Des répondants qui cochent plusieurs cases à « langue maternelle ». Des jeunes scolarisés dans une langue, mais qui en utilisent une autre à la maison et une autre encore devant leur écran. Des conversations entre amis ou à la table familiale dans deux langues. Un appel du travail dans une troisième. En parallèle à l’évolution des usages du français, une équipe de chercheurs tente de sortir le plurilinguisme de l’angle mort des dynamiques linguistiques.



« On a tendance à avoir une vision un peu binaire : on est soit francophone, soit anglophone, dans cette idée de deux langues officielles avec deux peuples fondateurs, mais on constate déjà que de plus en plus de gens déclarent plus d’une langue maternelle », décrit le professeur en sociologie à l’Université Laval Richard Marcoux.



L’immigration internationale est en effet le facteur dominant — et même exclusif depuis l’an dernier — de la croissance de la population. Il importe donc de mieux saisir la complexité du bagage des immigrants, estime ce cotitulaire de la Chaire de recherche du Québec sur la situation démolinguistique et les politiques linguistiques.



Parmi les 10 premiers pays d’origine des immigrants permanents au Québec l’an dernier, on retrouve le Cameroun, la Tunisie, l’Algérie, le Maroc, Haïti, la Côte d’Ivoire et le Liban. Ce sont des pays où certains usages du français existent, sans que les immigrants qui en viennent n’entrent dans la case de plus en plus étroite des francophones de langue maternelle.



Pour obtenir un portrait plus juste de l’état des choses, il faut dépasser les critères plus traditionnels comme la langue maternelle ou la langue parlée à la maison : « Ça ne suffit plus et c’est moins représentatif de l’immigration actuelle », juge celui qui préside aussi le Comité consultatif sur la statistique linguistique de Statistique Canada.



Ce « plurilinguisme dès la naissance » est encore mal saisi par les indicateurs les plus couramment cités. C’est différent, regarder la première langue parlée à la maison et considérer toutes celles qui sont parlées entre les murs privés, mettaient par exemple de l’avant M. Marcoux et ses collègues sociologues Jean-Pierre Corbeil et Victor Piché, dans une note de recherche de 2023.


« Ce qu’on constate, c’est que ces immigrants arrivent en disant : “Moi, ma langue maternelle, c’est l’arabe ET le français. J’ai été socialisé dans les deux langues, avec un univers qui se passait parfois dans l’une, parfois dans l’autre” », explique M. Marcoux plus en détail. « C’est différent de dire : “J’ai été élevé à Rabat, à Alger ou à Cotonou” », ajoute le professeur qui revient tout juste de Dakar, au Sénégal.

Cohabitation

Le plurilinguisme qu’il décrit colle à l’expérience de Hocine Taleb. Arrivé d’Algérie à 18 ans, il occupe maintenant, à l’aube de la trentaine, un emploi en informatique où il utilise majoritairement le français et, à l’occasion, l’anglais. Durant son enfance, il a été scolarisé en arabe à l’école publique. Il est exposé au français partout dans l’espace public, surtout à la télévision, et il parle kabyle avec sa famille et ses amis.

Alors quelle case coche-t-il ? « Techniquement, ma langue maternelle est le kabyle, mais aujourd’hui, je pense davantage en français que dans les autres langues », explique-t-il. Le kabyle reste la langue du dimanche chez ses parents, et celle qui décrit le mieux les plats délicieux préparés par sa mère.

Même s’il est au Québec depuis plus d’une décennie, on lui trouve encore le plus souvent un accent « de Français de France », un pays où il n’a pas vécu. Sa copine a des origines à la fois chinoise et québécoise ; elle a grandi d’abord en anglais puis en français, ce qui fait qu’ensemble, ils utilisent encore un mélange des deux.

C’est l’arabe finalement, « une langue imposée par l’école », qui est le moins présent dans ses journées, au point où il ne le parle pratiquement plus.

Un élan vers le français

Preuve s’il en est que l’on « naît de moins en moins francophone, on le devient », comme a déjà dit M. Marcoux lors d’une entrevue précédente. Il travaille notamment avec le professeur Koia Jean Martial Kouame, basé en Côte d’Ivoire, qui dit que le français est maintenant une langue africaine, un butin de guerre que les gens se sont réappropriés, tant au nord, à l’ouest qu’au centre de ce continent monumental.

Ensemble, ils tentent de préciser la place de la langue française dans une trentaine de métropoles différentes, toutes plurilingues. « Le français est la langue de communication, d’échange à Abidjan, mais pas à Bamako. À Dakar, on voit que la population se wolofise [parle de plus en plus la langue locale wolof], en même temps qu’elle se francise », note M. Marcoux.

Le Rwanda, parfois décrit comme ayant « basculé » du côté anglophone, n’a en fait jamais été francophone, note-t-il aussi, pour illustrer les nuances possibles. Les élites favorisent en effet l’anglais, mais les journaux, les banques et une partie de l’administration fonctionne beaucoup plus en kinyarwanda : « Depuis qu’on mesure, la proportion de francophones n’a jamais dépassé 8 % ! », note le professeur québécois.

C’est donc en quelque sorte deux élans inverses qu’il documente : du plurilinguisme vers le français en Afrique subsaharienne et au Maghreb, et du français vers plusieurs langues au Québec. Le point d’arrivée ? Une affirmation plurielle d’une langue décomplexée, un polycentrisme qui déplace le centre de gravité de la norme parisienne.

Pas une menace

À l’inverse de ce que les détracteurs de M. Marcoux tentent de lui coller comme étiquette, le chercheur affirme : « On part du consensus que le français est fragile et il a besoin d’une attention particulière. Mais on ne voit pas le plurilinguisme comme une menace à la langue. On dit seulement qu’il faut prendre la réalité en compte, et cette réalité est le plurilinguisme. »

Il n’est donc pas question, pour lui, de reculer sur les politiques déjà en place, surtout sur l’obligation d’envoyer ses enfants à l’école en français. Il veut plutôt qu’on cesse de voir la langue plurielle comme un facteur d’anglicisation ou de déclin du français. « On veut, nous aussi, que nos institutions continuent à fonctionner en français, mais on ne s’inquiète pas quand les gens échangent entre eux dans des conversations privées en arabe ou en espagnol. Ce n’est pas ça la menace à mes yeux », conclut l’expert.

Source: Le plurilinguisme des immigrants est-il nécessairement une menace pour le français?

Respondents who check several boxes in “mother tongue”. Young people educated in one language, but who use another at home and another in front of their screen. Conversations between friends or at the family table in two languages. A call from work in a third. In parallel with the evolution of French uses, a team of researchers is trying to get plurilingualism out of the blind spot of linguistic dynamics.

“We tend to have a somewhat binary vision: we are either French-speaking or English-speaking, in this idea of two official languages with two founding peoples, but we already see that more and more people declare more than one mother tongue,” describes the professor of sociology at Laval University Richard Marcoux.

International immigration is indeed the dominant – and even exclusive factor since last year – of population growth. It is therefore important to better grasp the complexity of immigrants’ baggage, says this co-holder of the Quebec Research Chair on the demolinguistic situation and language policies.

Among the top 10 countries of origin of permanent immigrants in Quebec last year, we find Cameroon, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Haiti, Ivory Coast and Lebanon. These are countries where certain uses of French exist, without immigrants who come from them entering the increasingly narrow box of French-speaking mother tongues.

To get a fairer picture of the state of affairs, it is necessary to go beyond more traditional criteria such as the mother tongue or the language spoken at home: “It is no longer enough and it is less representative of current immigration,” says the one who also chairs the Statistical Canada Linguistic Statistics Advisory Committee.

This “multilingualism from birth” is still poorly grasped by the most commonly cited indicators. It’s different, looking at the first language spoken at home and considering all those that are spoken between private walls, put for example M. Marcoux and his fellow sociologists Jean-Pierre Corbeil and Victor Piché, in a 2023 research note.

“What we see is that these immigrants arrive saying: “Me, my mother tongue, is Arabic AND French. I was socialized in both languages, with a universe that sometimes happened in one, sometimes in the other,” explains Mr. Marcoux in more detail. “It’s different to say: “I was raised in Rabat, Algiers or Cotonou,” adds the teacher who has just returned from Dakar, Senegal.

Living with somebody

The plurilingualism he describes is in line with Hocine Taleb’s experience. During his childhood, he was educated in Arabic in public school. He is exposed to French everywhere in the public space, especially on television, and he speaks Kabyle with his family and friends.

So which box does it tick? “Technically, my mother tongue is Kabyle, but today, I think more in French than in other languages,” he explains. Kabyle remains the Sunday language of his parents, and the one that best describes the delicious dishes prepared by his mother.

Even though he has been in Quebec for more than a decade, he is still most often found with a “French” accent, a country where he has not lived. His girlfriend has both Chinese and Quebec origins; she grew up first in English and then in French, which means that together, they still use a mixture of the two.

It is finally Arabic, “a language imposed by the school”, which is the least present in his days, to the point where he hardly speaks it anymore.

A boost towards French

Proof if it is that we are “born less and less French-speaking, we become one”, as Mr. He works in particular with Professor Koia Jean Martial Kouame, based in Côte d’Ivoire, who says that French is now an African language, a war booty that people have reappropriated, both in the north, west and center of this monumental continent.

Together, they try to specify the place of the French language in about thirty different metropolises, all multilingual. “French is the language of communication, of exchange in Abidjan, but not in Bamako. In Dakar, we see that the population is Wolofing [speaking the local Wolof language more and more], at the same time as it is Frenchizing, “notes Mr. Marcoux

Rwanda, sometimes described as having “swung” to the English-speaking side, has in fact never been French-speaking, he also notes, to illustrate the possible nuances. The elites indeed favor English, but newspapers, banks and part of the administration work much more in kinyarwanda: “Since we measure, the proportion of French speakers has never exceeded 8%! “, notes the Quebec teacher.

It is therefore in a way two inverse impulses that it documents: from multilingualism to French in sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb, and from French to several languages in Quebec. The point of arrival? A plural affirmation of an uninhibited language, a polycentrism that displaces the center of gravity of the Parisian norm.

Not a threat

Contrary to what Mr. Marcoux’s critics try to label him, the researcher says: “We start from the consensus that French is fragile and needs special attention. But we do not see multilingualism as a threat to language. We only say that we must take reality into account, and this reality is multilingualism. ”

There is therefore no question, for him, of going back on the policies already in place, especially on the obligation to send his children to school in French. Rather, he wants us to stop seeing the plural language as a factor of Anglicization or decline of French. “We also want our institutions to continue to function in French, but we don’t worry when people exchange with each other in private conversations in Arabic or Spanish. That’s not the threat in my eyes, “concludes the expert.

Theo Argitis: Canada’s great immigration experiment is ending 

Good take:

For nearly the first time in our history, Canada’s population growth has come to a near standstill. Remarkably, the state of things is such that we are celebrating this as a policy success and long-overdue correction.

Statistics Canada released its quarterly population estimates, showing the country grew by 20,000 people in the first three months of this year. That’s the third weakest quarterly increase in data going back to 1946—and less than one-tenth the average quarterly gain over the past three years.

Four provinces and one territory—Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, and Yukon—actually posted population declines.

The numbers reflect the dramatic reversal of policy late last year by the former Trudeau government, when it abruptly tightened permit approvals for international students and foreign workers after overseeing record immigration levels since 2021.

Under the plan, the intake of new permanent residents, or what the government calls immigrants, would be lowered from 485,000 in 2024 to 365,000 by 2027.

The number of non-permanent residents living in Canada—which had increased five-fold since 2015 to more than 3 million—would be cut by about one million over two years.

That post-pandemic rush of newcomers exacerbated housing shortages, strained public services, and disrupted the job market. It was perhaps the worst policy error of the past two decades, and in need of correction.

But, ironically, the sharp reversal in policy is now creating its own problems, impacting everything from demand for cell phones and banking services to funding for universities and colleges.

The whole episode has been a mass social experiment that will be studied for years.

“You’re going to see a ton of research on this, no question, because it’s like this little experiment here in Canada that no other country has done to this extent,’’ said Mikal Skuterud, a labour economist at the University of Waterloo and director of the Canadian Labour Economics Forum. “And there’s all kinds of dimensions to how this impacted the economy.”

The latest numbers suggest the government’s curbs are beginning to work. While still elevated, the number of non-permanent residents has started to decline—down almost 90,000 from its peak in September. The number of permanent residents, or immigrants, is now running at an annual pace closer to 400,000, down from nearly half a million.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has essentially adopted the Trudeau plan, which if successful will keep the current population steady at about the current 41.5 million level over the next two years. It would mark the first time since Confederation in 1867 that the country saw zero population growth.

Yet when viewed over the full horizon, the curbs will simply bring the average population growth rate for the decade back to about 1.3 percent, which is much closer to historical norms. We’re simply correcting a major policy anomaly.

Looking back, it’s too early to know for certain what effect the population surge had on wages and joblessness, according to Skuterud, who notes that younger Canadians, in particular, may have borne the brunt of it, given they tend to compete with newcomers for entry-level jobs.

What’s less in dispute is how the immigration surge lowered average living standards.

The evidence suggests that looser entry requirements over recent years brought in lower quality workers. Because of this, the economy failed to grow in line with population. The size of the pie didn’t grow fast enough to keep up with the number of people trying to take a slice.

The end result was the erosion of public confidence in immigration, which could linger in Canadian politics for years.

This is particularly true among younger Canadians, who now appear more open to curbing immigration levels. For many, tighter labour markets and more affordable housing—not higher population numbers—are the priority. Slower immigration supports those goals.

So, how did the government misjudge the situation so badly? And is there a lesson here for the Carney government?

Part of the problem stemmed from the unique distortions of the pandemic. The government overestimated labour shortages and then overcompensated by opening the immigration floodgates.

But there was also a broader miscalculation. Trudeau emerged from the pandemic with renewed ambitions and a belief that he had an expanded mandate to pursue transformative change, including on the immigration front.

Ambition, however, has a way of outpacing reality. And overshooting is always a risk when leaders grow too confident in their ability to enact change.

Carney is now putting forward an ambitious agenda of his own. Whether he’ll draw any lessons from Canada’s great immigration experiment remains to be seen.

Source: Theo Argitis: Canada’s great immigration experiment is ending

Keeney:Restoring Canada Special SeriesPart III: National Sovereignty in the Age of Mass Migration

A conservative view of immigration, citizenship and belonging, overly nostalgic and assimilationist rather than the more balanced approach of integration and accommodation into a shared history and evolving identity:

…Scruton, Vance, Williams and Stove offer a much-needed corrective to the moral confusion that pervades Canada’s immigration debate. They remind us that a nation is not a moral abstraction to be administered by technocrats, nor a blank canvas upon which to project fashionable ideals of universal justice. It is, instead, a concrete inheritance – a web of affections, memories and obligations – into which we are born or invited and to which we owe fidelity. A healthy polity depends not on the erasure of boundaries but on their moral intelligibility. Only within the thick texture of family, neighbourhood, language, tradition and the other elements collectively making up community life do our ethical duties take on substance and meaning.

Canada’s immigration crisis is, ultimately, a crisis of meaning. The liberal vision imagines a world of rights-bearing individuals, untethered from history or place, free to roam wherever they will and with as much claim upon their destination as the locals. But real nations are not weightless constructs. They are moral communities.

Prioritizing the needs of distant strangers – recall the “telescopic philanthropy” of Dickens’ Mrs. Jellyby – over those of one’s fellow citizens is not, as our political class would have it, the peak of moral enlightenment; rather, it is the abdication of the responsibilities that make moral life possible. Such a stance reflects not compassion and generosity but forgetfulness: forgetfulness of the fragile bonds that sustain our civic life and the quiet duties we owe one another. In the name of unlimited kindness, we risk dissolving the forms of life that make kindness more than sentiment. At stake is more than simply a policy debate, but a philosophical one: What does it mean to belong? What do we owe, and to whom? If the answer is to be serious, it must begin in the ordered loves that bind us to home, history and each other.

Canada’s immigration crisis is, ultimately, a crisis of meaning. The liberal vision imagines a world of rights-bearing individuals, untethered from history or place, free to roam wherever they will and with as much claim upon their destination as the locals. But real nations are not weightless constructs. They are moral communities. Canada must rediscover the ethical grammar that views obligation not as descending from metaphysical abstraction but beginning with the individual and radiating outward. It must affirm that to love one’s own is not to hate or ignore the other, but to honour the structure of human affection and duty. This is not a call for exclusion, but for rootedness; not for parochialism, but for prudence.

Canada’s globalist supporters have grown frustrated with the increasing discontent of Canadians who perceive that relentless immigration is increasingly unravelling the nation’s cohesion. Although this unrest is real, it should not be read as a rejection of compassion but as a plea to restore a moral order that values the immediate bonds of community and country over the abstract claims of universalism. Canada faces a defining choice: continue eroding its identity for a borderless vision or reaffirm the deep loves that sustain a moral community. Only by grounding itself in these concrete affections can Canada maintain its humanity and act with true justice in a divided world.

Patrick Keeney is a Canadian writer who divides his time between Kelowna, B.C. and Thailand.

Source: Restoring Canada Special Series Part III: National Sovereignty in the Age of Mass Migration