Skuterud et al: How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System

2025/12/11 Leave a comment

Valid critique:

In 2023, with little fanfare and no political opposition, the federal government gave itself the power to subvert Canada’s world-renowned skilled immigration system.

That system was formerly centred on the “points system,” called the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) in its most recent incarnation. 

Under the CRS, applicants for permanent residency were evaluated on their education, work experience, and language proficiency and the highest scoring applicants were admitted. The result was a continuous inflow of top talent chosen without political influence that benefited the Canadian economy and was admired by many countries (and emulated by some).   

But in 2023, the government created a new category-based feature in the system. That feature gave the immigration minister the power to prioritize categories of immigrants and move them to the front of the line. A rules-based system was replaced with a discretion-based system. 

The result is an opaque system that is exposed to political lobbying, looks like a lottery to prospective migrants, and squeezes out highly skilled candidates. In 2025, the leading category of immigrants under the new category-based system are francophones applying to live outside Quebec. 

Contributing to Canada’s patchwork immigration system, provincial nominee programs, which give provinces the ability to prioritize groups unable to meet the standard of the points system, account for an ever-increasing share of immigrant admissions. 

Admitting fewer skilled immigrants reduces our country’s productivity and tax revenue making it harder to fund social programs. It also affects Canada’s ability to attract the world’s best and brightest students to our post-secondary institutions, which are collectively reeling from plummeting international enrolment. 

Under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program, former international students with a Canadian postsecondary credential and one year of work experience in a skilled occupation are eligible to transition to permanent resident status without leaving the country. 

The CEC program’s intention is a good one – we attract whiz kids from around the world and provide them with an education that Canadian employers can easily evaluate. When this path works, it works well. International students pay high fees, lowering tuition costs for Canadians, and those who stay end up doing well in Canada’s labour markets. 

However, this approach can be abused when postsecondary institutions use immigration, not education, to lure foreign students. This has contributed to the growth of low-quality programs and distorted incentives on all sides. The problem lies in policy design.

In response to unsustainable growth in Canada’s non-permanent resident population and worries about housing, healthcare and labour market effects, the government has cut international student admissions for 2026 by 50 percent. 

The reduction is facing criticism from the postsecondary sector, but critics are overlooking that universities and colleges are not even reaching the quotas they have been given under the already reduced caps. New foreign student arrivals are on track to reach less than 160,000 in 2025, far below the government’s cap of 305,900. 

Foreign student applications to Canada’s universities and colleges have declined dramatically because prospective students no longer see a clear path to staying in Canada. Graduate students in computer science who want to stay are being told that learning French is their best option. And they fear that when they graduate, a different arbitrary category will be the priority. The current system discourages the best foreign students from applying to Canadian postsecondary institutions and blocks many of those who graduate from remaining in Canada.  

What should be done?

First, turn back the clock. Return to the immigration system that existed as recently as 2019 when immigrants were admitted through a single selection system that prioritized candidates with the highest future Canadian earnings. That system was transparent, predictable, and not easy for lobbyists to manipulate.  

Second, send a clear message that Canada welcomes foreign students. At a time when our goods exporting industries face major challenges, we should promote one of our most valuable services exports – educating international students. Education is an export that is uniquely dependent on trust, as students must live in Canada to consume the product.

Third, refine the points system to better target international graduates with the best earnings prospects. This would lead to increased demand by international students for programs with high post-graduate earnings and benefit our immigration program. Demand for programs that offer low earnings returns would moderate attracting only those international students who are coming solely for the education, since these programs would provide no realistic pathway to PR status.  

Canada needs immigration reform now. What we have now is a bungled system that prioritizes lobbying effort over the very real contribution that immigration can make to the Canadian economy.

David Green is a professor at the Vancouver School of Economics, Philip Oreopoulos is distinguished professor in economics at the University of Toronto. Craig Riddell is emeritus professor at the Vancouver School of Economics. Mikal Skuterud is economics professor at the University of Waterloo, and the Rogers Phillips Scholar of Social Policy at the C.D. Howe Institute and Christopher Worswick is professor of economics at Carleton University and a research fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.

Source: How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System

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Liberals to open new fast track to permanent residency for 5,000 foreign doctors

2025/12/10 2 Comments

Strange that about one month after issuing the levels plan, the government has effectively increased the levels by 5,000. Hard not to understand why this was not within the current levels, as it appears more sleight of hand as were the other one-time additions. Does not help the overall message that the government is getting immigration more under control (even if it is):

The federal government is promising to open up permanent residency for foreign doctors working in Canada as temporary foreign residents in order to tackle the doctor shortage across the country. 

Immigration Minister Lena Diab announced the policy shift in Toronto Monday, saying 5,000 spots for international doctors would be opened over and above current immigration levels. 

“Many of these doctors are already treating patients in our communities. We cannot afford to lose them,” Diab said. 

The plan involves creating a new express entry category for foreign doctors starting in 2026 for physicians with at least one year of Canadian work experience over the last three years who currently have a job offer. 

A government statement said that physicians eligible for the program include primary care doctors as well as specialists in surgery, clinical and laboratory medicine….

Source: Liberals to open new fast track to permanent residency for 5,000 foreign doctors

Some numbers in the Globe article:

Across Canada, the numbers of physicians coming north this year have increased.

Ontario has issued certificates to 493 U.S.-trained physicians this year, up from 209 last year. The College of Physicians and Surgeons of BC has seen 405 applications from U.S.-trained physicians this year, nearly double the total from the previous two years. Nova Scotia has issued provincial licences to 34 U.S.-trained doctors this year, more than double the 2024 total.

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Globe editorial: Why to drop a bad idea on immigration

2025/08/14 Leave a comment

Appears dropped may be actually dropped. Money line “we want it in writing.” Regional effects vary, may be more negative impact in rural Canada compared to need to reduce in urban centres:

…Canada’s immigration system is on the mend today because of belated reforms introduced in the dying months of the Trudeau government, and due to further fixes under the Liberals’ current reincarnation. 

Ottawa is now trying to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada, from 7.1 per cent of the total population to 5 per cent by the end of 2026.

The country is also at a historic crossroads as it tries to shake up its economy in order to be less reliant on the United States. A big part of that will involve improving Canada’s productivity, which in turn means businesses need to become more efficient. Letting them continue to rely on low-wage, low-skill labour when the unemployment rate is 6.9 per cent would be self-defeating. 

The fact that Ottawa is not moving ahead with its low-skilled pathway into the country means it may have seen the light. But we want it in writing.

Source: Why to drop a bad idea on immigration

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Mahboubi: Canada is wasting the talents of its skilled immigrants

2025/02/01 Leave a comment

Concrete and specific recommendations, some harder to implement than others (e.g., Foreign Credential Recognition, which also should include domestic credential recognition):

…To fully harness immigrant talent, Canada must act. The Express Entry system should place greater emphasis on language ability and incorporate educational criteria that consider the reputations of institutions, fields of study and academic grades – elements often overlooked but crucial for predicting successful labour-market integration. Pre-immigration earnings of immigrants with prior Canadian work experience should also be considered, as they serve as a strong predictor of immigrants’ economic value and their ability to integrate into the work force without facing overqualification.

Streamlining the recognition of foreign credentials and offering clearer guidance on licensing are equally important. Provincial governments need to collaborate with regulatory bodies to simplify and accelerate the recognition process for foreign qualifications. British Columbia and Nova Scotia recently expedited their approvals for health care professionals, showing the potential of such collaboration. At the same time, regulatory bodies should revisit and modernize their licensing processes to reduce red tape and ensure that the requirements are not excessively burdensome.

Immigrants need better support navigating complex recertification processes. Provincial regulatory bodies can partner with professional associations to develop clear licensing roadmaps for regulated professions so that skilled immigrants can better understand their options. Governments also need to expand access to culturally relevant language training and rigorously evaluate settlement programs to scale up what works.

Employers also need to step up. Today, only 15 per cent of employers in Toronto work with immigrant-serving agencies, missing out on a wealth of untapped talent. Promoting job-matching programs, raising awareness of credential-assessment services and connecting with immigrant-serving organizations can bridge gaps. Governments can facilitate this by developing comprehensive databases of credential equivalencies.

Canada’s highly-educated immigrants represent a vast, underutilized resource. Addressing systemic barriers is not just about fairness – it’s about ensuring the country’s long-term prosperity. With bold action and collaboration, Canada can transform this missed opportunity into a major economic advantage.

Source: Canada is wasting the talents of its skilled immigrants

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Canada tightens immigration point system to curb fraud tied to job selling

2024/12/19 Leave a comment

Further tightening:

Temporary foreign workers who apply to become permanent residents through Canada’s immigration system will no longer get additional points if they have a job offer that’s supported by a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), Immigration minister Marc Miller said Tuesday.

The move will reduce fraudulent activities in Canada’s Express Entry System, which is an online platform that manages Canada’s skilled immigration programs, the minister said at a press conference.

“We are implementing further measures that will reinforce program integrity and reduce potential LMIA fraud, such as removing additional points that candidates receive under Express Entry for having a job offer,” he said. “This measure is expected to remove the incentive for candidates to purchase an LMIA resulting in increased fairness and integrity in the system.”

The latest move seems to be a continuation of the steps taken by the federal government to reduce the number of newcomers entering the country amidst rising unemployment and a housing crisis. The move was announced on the same day that Statistics Canada reported the country’s slowest quarterly population growth estimate since the first quarter of 2022.

Employers can use Canada’s temporary foreign worker program to hire foreign workers, but they often need to prove that they aren’t able to find a worker for that specific position in Canada. In order to do that, they must receive a federal government document called the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA).

About 71,300 LMIAs were approved by the government in the first quarter of this year, compared to 63,300 during the same period last year. Most applications were for farm workers, cooks, food-counter attendants, truck drivers and construction labourers.

Some groups, however, illegally sell LMIA-approved jobs at extremely high rates to foreigners who are either outside the country or are already in Canada and are looking for ways to boost their immigration score in order to transition from temporary to permanent resident status…

Source: Canada tightens immigration point system to curb fraud tied to job selling

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Hopeful immigrants to Canada are learning French after other paths to permanent residency prove difficult

2024/09/14 Leave a comment

Not entirely unexpected as many applicants will explore different options. Some of the individual cases cited suggest a level of determination and work ethic that make them likely to be successful immigrants:

…Some economists have criticized prioritizing French-language skills for immigrant selection, saying it affects Canada’s ability to attract top talent.

University of Waterloo’s Prof. Skuterud points out that giving priority to French-language speakers with lower scores means that a large number of applicants with scores above 500 – who have the potential of making higher incomes but don’t speak French – aren’t invited to apply.

“This is the trade-off we have: computer science students at the University of Waterloo are getting frustrated and saying I’m going somewhere else,” Prof. Skuterud said. “This is a huge problem if what you care about is productivity, which is what everybody is talking about now.”

It comes down to the society’s priority whether it’s for labour market success or letting in immigrants that will assimilate into Francophone culture, said Philip Oreopoulos, an economics professor at the University of Toronto.

Prof. Oreopoulos agrees that the new category doesn’t maximize chances for immigrants’ productivity. “I don’t think outside of Quebec, favouring more points for knowing French would lead to better labour market success than, say, favouring graduate education,” he said.

Jeffrey MacDonald, a communications adviser at the Ministry of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, points out that supporting francophone immigration is part of an obligation Canada made in its Official Languages Act. And, he added in an e-mail, the new French-language category “will contribute to stronger and more prosperous Francophone communities for generations to come.”

Source: Hopeful immigrants to Canada are learning French after other paths to permanent residency prove difficult

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Globe editorial: Sorry, Ottawa, but magical thinking won’t fix the economy [on immigration]

2024/05/24 Leave a comment

Of note:

…Ottawa has made the choice to select lower-scoring immigrants who fit into specialized niches in the economy rather than those who, according to Canada’s own immigration system, have a better chance of long-term success.

… But it would be a serious policy blunder to carve out even more exceptions and further squeeze the general pool of permanent resident spots. Such an action would cement the trend toward a low-wage economy largely populated by immigrants.

A better, if tougher, approach would be to allow temporary migrants to compete for a spot in the general pool. Some will undoubtedly qualify, and will help to build Canada in the coming decades. Others won’t and will have to leave.

The Liberals need to keep in mind two imperatives in sorting out economic migration policy: the needs of Canadians come first – and magical thinking won’t get the country’s economy back on track.

Source: Sorry, Ottawa, but magical thinking won’t fix the economy

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Immigrant workers say future in limbo as government ranking system scores soar

2024/05/16 Leave a comment

Consequences of a failed immigration system that encouraged such hopes and education institutions that catered to international students seeking pathways to permanent residency through often lower skilled business programs. Another disconnect.

And in general, a rise in the express entry cut-off is a sign that the program is working to select more qualified immigrants under the “general” category:

Kanika Maheshwari moved to Brampton from India in 2020 to study business management. Her dream, she says, was to open a jewelry business one day.

Since graduating, she has been working with a logistics company as a sales executive. The 29-year-old has built a life in Canada with her husband, who works as a trader — both are saving to open her jewelry store.

But Maheshwari says her dream is now at risk because her Canadian work permit expires in August, and she hasn’t heard back about her permanent residency (PR) application since she applied last year, due to Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) draws which have been consistently way higher than her score.

One immigration consultant says that is because a record number of people are applying for a PR with higher scores, having collected more points through lengthy and costly application processes that come with no guarantee of success.

Canada accepted a record high of 430,000 PR applications in 2022.

“It feels like I’m going straight and there will be a well where I will fall down,” Maheshwari says.

CRS is a ranking system used by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) to score immigrants applying for a permanent residency, using factors like age, level of education, English proficiency and work experience. Every two weeks, IRCC draws a CRS rank and applicants with that score or higher are invited to submit documents to receive a PR card.

All the draws since January this year for the general category have averaged over 540, according to IRCC’s website.

“That’s terribly high. It’s impossible to meet, and it’s really rare,” says Manan Gupta, a Brampton immigration consultant.

Most people with a post-graduate work permit (PGWP) — lasting a maximum of three years — don’t meet the current threshold, Gupta says.

That high score comes at a time when Immigration Minister Marc Miller says permits expiring after 2023 will not be extended, as the ministry decided to end the temporary extension program introduced during the pandemic in 2020 to retain students as workers. Miller made the announcement in December.

Gupta says he’s worried that will lead to hundreds of thousands of workers exiting the country.

“If these temporary foreign workers suddenly exit the labour market, we don’t have people to fill in the same job,” he says.

Canada had 286,000 PGWP holders in 2022 — a similar number of those work permits have been issued annually since 2019 — with over half of them intending to work in Ontario, according to IRCC data.

Few categories prioritized

There have been a slew of changes to immigration policy since Miller’s appointment in July last year. One of them was to maintain the target number of new permanent residents in the country at nearly 500,000 until 2026.

However, there are six priority categories to fill labour shortages: workers in STEM, agriculture, health care, transportation, trade and French speakers.

But Canada’s recruitment of international students was not aligned with its labour shortages, as it welcomed nearly 800,000 students in business programs, compared with 113,000 students in health care and 36,000 students in trades between 2018 and 2023, according to a CBC News analysis of federal data.

“For someone who has given five to six years of their prime youth to Canada, now they are being told you have to go back home and start fresh. Canada is closing doors on them,” Gupta says.

“You don’t know what future lies there. It is choosing between a rock and a hard place.”

‘Band-Aid approach’ needs to stop: consultant

Maheshwari, who lost her mother two years ago, says she provides financial support for her family back home. Her husband is on a spousal permit, which means if she leaves, he also has to return to India.

“Because of the anxiety I can’t sleep the whole night. It’s a huge lot of hell,” she says.

With only three months before her visa expires, learning French or switching professions is not an option, she says.

The couple is working overtime to make ends meet and pay some $30,000 for a lawyer who can advise them through their next possible options.

Gupta says he’s seeing an increasing number of people spending tens of thousands of dollars to bump their score, by hiring immigration consultants or lawyers, to become eligible for different PR streams like Provincial Nomination Program or by completing a Labour Market Impact Assessment.

New data obtained by CBC News show that Canada’s recruitment of international students failed to match the job market. Colleges and universities brought in far more foreign students to business programs than in-demand fields like healthcare or the trades. CBC’s senior reporter at Queen’s Park Mike Crawley has the story.

“If I have to go back; what I have done in four years — made my career, spent a lot of money — will just be a waste, all lost. Not just for me, but for an entire family whom I’m supporting,” Maheshwari says.

While she supports IRCC’s adjustments to immigration programs, she says the country is doing little to retain working immigrants.

Gupta says if the government wants to have skilled workers, it needs to focus on shutting down programs which continue to attract students but do not fill the acute labour shortages.

“The trust is kind of up in the air right now, because every other week there is a new policy being announced. Every other week there is a Band-Aid approach by the government. That approach needs to come to a full stop,” he says.

Source: Immigrant workers say future in limbo as government ranking system scores soar

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Bribes, fake jobs and the ‘desperate’ situation facing Canada’s temporary residents

2024/04/22 Leave a comment

Of note, the impact of the government’s partial reversal of previous ill-advised policies:

What’s a person looking for a chance to become a permanent resident to do?

Already in Canada but with work permits expiring, many temporary residents are facing limited prospects for permanent residence under the federal government’s scoring system. The rankings are supposed to be based on personal attributes such as age, education and language proficiency, which count for points.

But since Ottawa started cherry-picking candidates on its priority list last summer, many would-be candidates with higher scores are finding the odds stacked against them. Desperation has prompted some to essentially bribe their way to job offers to boost their chances.

“The abuse … of LMIAs has been going on since time immemorial,” said Peter Veress, who has worked in the immigration consulting industry for 27 years and is based in Calgary. “But because of the massive numbers (of temporary residents) that we’re talking now, I’m hearing it more and more.

“It’s become more open because people are more desperate.”

At the heart of the abuse allegations is the Labour Market Impact Assessment, an evaluation process to verify an employer’s need to hire a foreign worker to fill a vacant position. A positive LMIA is proof of an arranged employment in an immigration application, worth an additional 50 to 200 points for a candidate, depending on how important the job position is. 

Last month, in announcing a reduction in the number of temporary residents in Canada to slow down the country’s population growth amid a housing crisis, Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault acknowledged the problem and said he’s committed to cracking down on the misuse of the temporary foreign worker program.

“I don’t want anybody putting up a job that is then used to lure somebody here to take an LMIA,” said Boissonault. 

“This is not what it’s designed for. If we find and actually locate people who are doing that, then the authorities will get involved.”…

Source: Bribes, fake jobs and the ‘desperate’ situation facing Canada’s temporary residents

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Ottawa focuses on French-speaking economic immigrants – and often bypasses stronger candidates

2024/04/16 Leave a comment

The federal government is prioritizing French-speaking economic immigrants, a shift that has often seen higher-ranking applicants bypassed in the selection process, according to a Globe and Mail analysis of figures published by the Immigration Department.

Since it overhauled the Express Entry system for skilled immigration last year, Ottawa has invited 19,700 people to apply for permanent residency based on their French skills, easily more than in other new categories for selection. The government has also extended 36,150 invites to the broad pool of candidates, whose selection is based solely on points rather than specific attributes.

To pick these French speakers, the government is effectively reaching deeper into the pool of immigration candidates, which means the cutoff score for entry is frequently much lower in this category than in others. These individuals have lower expected earnings in Canada than people with higher scores.

“What’s the objective here? If it’s about economic growth, then this is not a smart policy,” said Mikal Skuterud, an economics professor at the University of Waterloo. “But clearly, that’s not what this is about. They’re using economic-class programs to achieve different objectives.”

…“It is definitely going to affect our ability to select the top talent,” said Parisa Mahboubi, a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute….

….Anne Michèle Meggs, a former director of planning and accountability at Quebec’s Immigration Ministry, said it was unlikely Ottawa was selecting French speakers to curry favour with certain communities ahead of the next federal election. “There are not a lot of votes to find among francophones outside Quebec,” she said….

Source: Ottawa focuses on French-speaking economic immigrants – and often bypasses stronger candidates

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