Tremblay | Et si la question des réfugiés devenait l’enjeu principal des élections?

2025/04/11 Leave a comment

Likely not going to happen, as is the case with so many non-Trump tariff etc issues:

…Rappelons qu’en plus des Haïtiens, un très grand nombre de Vénézuéliens et de migrants latino-américains seraient également dans la mire des États-Unis. Le président américain estime le nombre total des « illégaux » à 8 millions. Combien le Canada peut-il en accueillir ? Bien malin celui qui peut répondre à cette question.

Pierre Poilievre a répondu que le Canada devait accueillir les « vrais demandeurs d’asile ». Le Bloc exige, lui, une meilleure répartition de ces réfugiés à travers le pays. Mark Carney affirme impérativement qu’il les renverrait d’où ils arrivent, c’est-à-dire aux États-Unis. Rappelons que l’Entente sur les tiers pays sûrs permet de refouler les demandeurs d’asile qui proviennent des États-Unis. Mais nos voisins sont-ils encore un pays sûr ?

Voici une belle occasion pour les conservateurs et pour le Bloc québécois. Une bonne réponse à la crise migratoire pourrait déterminer l’issue des élections, autant sinon plus que la réponse aux menaces tarifaires. Pierre Poilievre pourrait ici regagner tous les précieux points perdus depuis l’arrivée de Mark Carney en se montrant ferme dans cette crise humanitaire et en rappelant que la crise migratoire est véritablement une crise de la vision libérale de ce pays que Justin Trudeau qualifiait, il n’y a pas si longtemps, de « premier État postnational de la planète ». Le chef conservateur pourrait même s’imposer comme l’homme fort capable à la fois de protéger le Canada et de résister à Trump.

Le Bloc a de son côté l’occasion de revenir dans la mêlée pour défendre les intérêts du Québec qui ont été particulièrement malmenés par la gestion migratoire du gouvernement Trudeau. Quant à Mark Carney, il faut se poser cette question à plusieurs dizaines, voire à plusieurs centaines, de milliards de dollars : pourra-t-il continuer à cacher le bilan libéral, surtout en matière d’immigration et de logement, alors qu’une nouvelle crise migratoire s’annonce ? Quelle crédibilité auront les libéraux pour nous convaincre qu’ils seront les meilleurs pour freiner l’afflux de réfugiés après des années de déni et de laxisme éhontés en la matière ?

Qui a dit que la campagne électorale était déjà terminée ?

Source: Idées | Et si la question des réfugiés devenait l’enjeu principal des élections?

… Recall that in addition to Haitians, a very large number of Venezuelans and Latin American migrants would also be in the sights of the United States. The American president estimates the total number of “illegals” at 8 million. How many can Canada accommodate? Very smart who can answer this question.

Pierre Poilievre replied that Canada should welcome the “real asylum seekers”. The Bloc demands a better distribution of these refugees across the country. Mark Carney imperatively states that he would send them back to where they arrive, that is, to the United States. Recall that the Agreement on Safe Third Countries makes it possible to push back asylum seekers who come from the United States. But are our neighbors still a safe country?

This is a great opportunity for the Conservatives and for the Bloc Québécois. A good response to the migration crisis could determine the outcome of the elections, as much if not more than the response to tariff threats. Pierre Poilievre could here regain all the precious points lost since the arrival of Mark Carney by being firm in this humanitarian crisis and recalling that the migration crisis is truly a crisis of the liberal vision of this country that Justin Trudeau described, not so long ago, as “the first post-national state on the planet”. The conservative leader could even establish himself as the strong man capable of both protecting Canada and resisting Trump.

The Bloc, for its part, has the opportunity to return to the fray to defend Quebec’s interests, which have been particularly mistreated by the Trudeau government’s migration management. As for Mark Carney, we must ask himself this question at several tens, even several hundred, of billions of dollars: will he be able to continue to hide the liberal balance sheet, especially in terms of immigration and housing, while a new migration crisis is announced? What credibility will the Liberals have to convince us that they will be the best at curbing the influx of refugees after years of shameless denial and laxity in this area?

Who said the election campaign was already over?

Filed under Immigration, Refugees Tagged with , ,

Venezuelans facing deportation in the U.S. seeking routes to Canada, including by illegal crossings 

2025/04/10 Leave a comment

Something going on with IRCC and CBSA as monthly stats on asylum claimants from IRCC date from December 2014 and irregular arrivals from RCMP/CBSA date from January (former generally issued in about 5 weeks, latter generally a week or two). Impact of cuts on important data given articles like this:

Venezuelans facing deportation from the United States under President Donald Trump’s immigration clampdown are seeking routes to Canada, including illegal crossings, according to Canadian immigration consultants.

They say some Venezuelans have already crossed into Canada – both at regular border posts and by slipping across – with others preparing to come here to escape being detained and deported from the U.S.

Hundreds of Venezuelans are facing deportation after Mr. Trump announced plans to end Venezuelans’ special protected status, introduced by the Biden administration, shielding them from deportation. Some with alleged links to gangs have already been detained and deported.

Immigration experts working with the Venezuelan community said Canada is viewed as a top destination for those who do not want to be returned.

The Canadian government does not deport Venezuelans to their home country, which is beset by violent crime.

Annie Beaudoin, a Canadian immigration consultant based in California, said “the end of the U.S. Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for thousands of Venezuelans, Haitians, and other foreign nationals, has translated into an increase in illegal crossings into Canada.”

She said some Venezuelans, including health and construction workers, attempting to come through illegal crossings might qualify for visas to come to Canada….

Source: Venezuelans facing deportation in the U.S. seeking routes to Canada, including by illegal crossings

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Canada Curbed Illegal Migration to the U.S. Now People Are Heading to Canada.

2025/03/03 Leave a comment

Sort of inevitable that increased security patrols mean further persons found. No major uptick to date, February data should be out shortly:

…Canada has directed 1.3 billion Canadian dollars ($900 million) to enhance border security, adding two Black Hawk helicopters and 60 drones equipped with thermal cameras.

It also tightened requirements for temporary visas that some visitors used to arrive in Canada legally but then enter the United States illegally.

The Canadian government says its recent measures have driven down the number of unauthorized crossings into the United States: About 600 migrants were intercepted at the border in January, down from about 900 in January 2024, according to U.S. data.

“Whether or not some of the allegations about what is going on at the border are accurate or not, or credible or not, I don’t have the luxury not to take it seriously,” Marc Miller, Canada’s immigration minister, said in an interview on Thursday.

…The Opposite Direction

Canada’s focus on the border, against the backdrop of Mr. Trump’s domestic crackdown on migrants, is why the nine people walking into Alberta on Feb. 3 raised alarms: It was unusual to see a group this large crossing on foot in the heart of winter. The presence of young children made it all the more troubling.

The Canadian authorities say they have been intercepting more people arriving from the United States, but because of the schedule Canada follows in releasing data, no numbers are yet available for the weeks since Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January. But government news releases suggest the numbers are rising….

“This is the latest sign that Canada is sending people and families with children back to the U.S. with the full knowledge that they are at great risk of being detained and then returned to danger,” said Ketty Nivyabandi, a leader of Amnesty International’s Canada chapter, referring to the nine migrants Canada returned to the United States. 

“The Canadian government must not wait a minute longer to withdraw from the Safe Third Country Agreement,” she added.

But such a move would likely encourage more people to seek refuge in Canada, creating new pressures on the country’s already strained immigration system.

“It would almost certainly lead to a surge in unauthorized border crossings,” said Phil Triadafilopoulos, a political science professor at the University of Toronto.

Still, he added, by continuing to return asylum seekers to the United States, Canada is signaling that “it isn’t going to receive people who have lost their temporary protected status in the U.S. as hospitably as it did in the past.”

And as illustrated by the migrants who crossed in Alberta, those groups, he said, can “include small children in really dire conditions, with the full knowledge that the fate of those children and their families is highly uncertain.”

Mr. Miller, the immigration minister, insisted that Canada believes that the United States remains a safe country for asylum seekers.

“We need to have a proper, managed system at the border,” he said. “But it doesn’t mean that we’re naïve, or we’re not watching events that are currently happening in the U.S.”…

Source: Canada Curbed Illegal Migration to the U.S. Now People Are Heading to Canada.

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Canada’s border cities, bursting at the seams with asylum seekers, brace for more amid Trump turmoil

2025/02/03 Leave a comment

Of note:

Some hotels in Niagara Falls, Ont., are unusually full for the middle of the winter off-season, when many visitors stay home. Normally that would make the mayor of a tourist city happy – but not Jim Diodati.

His community, which says it has more asylum seekers per capita than any other municipality in the country, is ground-zero in Canada’s efforts to house thousands of refugee claimants in hotels while they wait for their claims to be processed. The mayor, who can see the United States from his perch at city hall, is worried it’s about to get a lot worse.

Mr. Diodati is concerned that if more asylum seekers start coming to Canada because of Donald Trump’s anti-immigration policies, his city will be unable to handle it – and he’s not alone. While the federal and provincial governments are trying to demonstrate to Mr. Trump that they’re serious about stopping the flow of migrants going south, mayors of the country’s border towns say there’s not enough talk about these implications of Mr. Trump’s policies.

In Niagara Falls, a city of around 95,000 people where tourism drives the economy, the influx of refugees is pushing local emergency rooms, schools, shelters, food banks and housing supply to the brink, Mr. Diodati said.

At its peak more than a year ago, there were nearly 5,000 asylum seekers housed in 11 hotels in the city’s downtown core, dotted with souvenir shops, arcades, amusement rides, indoor water parks and a casino….

Source: Canada’s border cities, bursting at the seams with asylum seekers, brace for more amid Trump turmoil

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Ottawa planning processing centre for asylum seekers in Quebec near U.S. border

2025/01/27 Leave a comment

Of note:

Canadian authorities are planning to open a processing centre for asylum seekers near the United States border in Quebec in case there is a sharp rise in the number of would-be refugees entering Canada.

Earlier this week, the federal government published a notice seeking office space it could lease to accommodate reception and meal distribution areas as well as a waiting room for up to 200 people at a time.

In an e-mail, the Canada Border Services Agency says the planned processing centre is part of its contingency plans “in the event of an influx of asylum seekers.”

The notice from Public Services and Procurement Canada says the building must be located within a 15-kilometre radius of the official border crossing area in St-Bernard-de-Lacolle, Que., south of Montreal.

The notice follows Ottawa’s $1.3-billion announcement in December to beef up border security in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs unless Canada reduces the flow of migrants and drugs across the border….

Source: Ottawa planning processing centre for asylum seekers in Quebec near U.S. border

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Thousands of pro-Assad Syrians flee to Lebanon to escape reprisals as interim government takes shape 

2024/12/13 Leave a comment

Suggesting need for strong vetting for any new Syrian origin asylum seekers to ensure that few, if any, former senior officials and others complicit with the regime are rejected:

…Lebanon is watching one set of Syrian refugees head home only to see another set arrive within its borders in the aftermath of the toppling on Sunday of Syria’s autocratic president Bashar al-Assad.

Since then, thousands of Syrians, most of them believed to be Alawites – members of the same Islamic sect that included the Assad family – have crossed into Lebanon illegally to avoid retribution from the Islamic rebel alliance, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, that has set up a transitional government.

Michel Constantin, the regional director for Lebanon, Syria and Egypt for the Catholic Near East Welfare Association, a papal charity established almost a century ago, said that some 50,000 Syrians have entered Lebanon since the fall of the Assad regime.

“Villages in the north Bekaa Valley are full of families coming from Syria,” he told The Globe and Mail, referring to the 120-kilometre valley in eastern Lebanon that runs roughly parallel to the Syrian frontier. “If they continue to come, it could turn into a crisis for Lebanon.”

The arrivals figure was difficult to verify, though a France 24 news channel report from the Syrian-Lebanese border said there were many more cars lined up to leave Syria than to enter it.

Marc Saad, a spokesperson for the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party that is the largest in the country’s parliament, said, “There is an influx of Syrians fleeing into Lebanon. We cannot bear any more arrivals here.”

Source: Thousands of pro-Assad Syrians flee to Lebanon to escape reprisals as interim government takes shape

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Clark: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

2024/12/04 Leave a comment

Of note:

…On Sunday, he called for a crackdown on people coming to Canada – tightening visa requirements to make it harder to visit and setting a cap on the number of asylum-seekers.

For a long time, Mr. Poilievre didn’t go there. His party wanted MPs and candidates to steer clear of anything that suggested tough talk on immigration. It’s only in the last few months that Mr. Poilievre has ramped up criticism of the Liberal government’s failure to control a surge of temporary residents.

Now, he’s talking about cracking down on “false refugees” and warning “our Canadian jobs are being taken.”

“I think it is time for a cap. And it is time to get rid of all of the abuse,” Mr. Poilievre said in his press conference on Sunday.

He added: “We need to shut off the flow of false refugee claims who are in no danger in their country of origin but are sneaking in either through our porous border or our weak visa system, and when they land here making a false claim.”

That’s the kind of lexicon Mr. Poilievre had kept from his lips for a long time, and on an issue that wasn’t in the repertoire of attacks against the government in the Commons until November….

Source: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

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Canada pulls refugee welcome mat, launches ads warning of stricter asylum rules

2024/12/04 Leave a comment

Responsible shift:

Once presenting itself as one of the world’s most welcoming countries to refugees and immigrants, Canada is launching a global online ad campaign cautioning asylum seekers that making a claim is hard. The C$250,000 (US$179,000) in advertisements will run through March in 11 languages, including Spanish, Urdu, Ukrainian, Hindi and Tamil, the immigration department said. They are part of a broader shift in tone by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopular government on immigration and an effort to clamp down on refugee claims.

Migrants have been blamed for high housing prices, although some experts argue this is a simplistic explanation, and polls show a growing number of Canadians think the country admits too many newcomers.

The four-month campaign is budgeted to cost a third of the total spend on similar advertisements over the previous seven years.

Search queries such as “how to claim asylum in Canada” and “refugee Canada” will prompt sponsored content titled “Canada’s asylum system – Asylum Facts,” the ministry said.

“Claiming asylum in Canada is not easy. There are strict guidelines to qualify. Find out what you need to know before you make a life-changing decision,” one ad reads. Canada has long been seen as a welcoming place for newcomers. Now its leaders are slashing immigration and trying to get temporary residents to leave and to prevent people fleeing US president-elect Donald Trump from claiming asylum.

“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada is working to combat the spread of misinformation and disinformation about Canada’s immigration system, and to highlight the risks of working with unauthorised representatives,” a department spokesperson wrote in an email.

Refugee case backlog

It may be an uphill battle. Canada’s refugee system faces a 260,000-case backlog amid growing global displacement. The government has little control over who claims asylum. Its immigration minister has hinted at fast-tracking claims deemed unlikely to succeed. The government is hoping millions of people will leave the country on their own when their visas expire, and the immigration minister has threatened to deport them if they do not.

It is a dramatic about-face for a government that for years set out the welcome mat. In January 2017, when Trump took office, Trudeau tweeted: “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada.” On November 17, nearly eight years later, Trudeau published a video promoting his government’s immigration policies, calling out “bad actors” who “have been exploiting our immigration system for their own interests.” Last month, the Liberal government, trailing in polls, announced it is slashing permanent and temporary immigration. The population is projected to shrink slightly for two years.

Ad campaigns to counter misinformation on how to apply for asylum could be useful, said University of Ottawa law professor and immigration expert Jamie Chai Yun Liew.

“On the other hand, if they’re saying, ‘You’re not welcome’ … it does seem contrary to Canada’s approach in the past,” she said. “They’ve switched their messaging.”

Source: Canada pulls refugee welcome mat, launches ads warning of stricter asylum rules

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Urback: In preparation for Trump 2.0, Ottawa must broadcast that our border is closed, Kheiriddin: In the age of Trump, Canada must stem the refugee tide

2024/11/14 Leave a comment

Two commentaries with similar suggestions:

…So what can Canada do? Start sucking up to Mr. Trump to try to protect the revised STCA? Hire more officers, more border control agents, more immigration staff? Build a wall, and make Mexico pay for it? Two of three are probably prudent actions. But there is something else Canada can do in the interim that is much more simple: start broadcasting, now, that asylum-seekers from the U.S. will be denied entry to Canada.

In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rather infamously published a welcome to migrants of the world, tweeting, “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada.” To now broadcast the opposite – through tweets, diplomatic missions, perhaps even advertisements – would be entirely off-brand for a government whose belief in its own sanctimony is probably powerful enough to run cars, but extraordinarily necessary considering the circumstances. Asylum-seekers risk their lives with human smugglers, treacherous conditions, and a dearth of resources and services when and if they do make it to Canada. It wouldn’t be fair to them, nor is it fair to those already in the country, for the government to leave the misconception that Canada can accommodate unchecked.

Source: In preparation for Trump 2.0, Ottawa must broadcast that our border is closed

…To discourage people from coming, the government must remove the 14-day exemption and require all refugee applications to be made solely from outside of Canada. It must also allocate more resources to speed up claim processing times.

Critics will say that this will drive migrants underground, like in the U.S., where they cross the border illegally and never seek status for fear of being deported. This is a risk notably in Canada’s seven designated “sanctuary cities,” where illegal migrants can receive services and benefits without having to disclose their status: Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, Ajax, Edmonton, Hamilton and London. Since cities are legally creatures of the province, Ottawa needs to cooperate with provincial government to find a legal means of revoking or outlawing the designation.

Unfortunately, we may not get a lot of cooperation from our neighbours. American cities have already encouraged migrants to leave, including to Canada. All the more reason to send a tough signal now that we won’t let this happen, before Trump takes office — and before the migration tsunami hits.

Source: Tasha Kheiriddin: In the age of Trump, Canada must stem the refugee tide

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Ministers urged to explain how they will prevent a surge in asylum seekers from U.S. after Trump election

2024/11/09 Leave a comment

Suggests major increase in funding for the IRB along with some process re-engineering will be needed. Nothing reduces public support more than the perception that immigration is not being well managed as we have seen over the past two years:

Federal ministers came under pressure from MPs Thursday to explain how they plan to prevent an influx of asylum seekers from the United States after the election of Donald Trump, as a senior official at the Immigration and Refugee Board disclosed it now takes almost four years for asylum claims to be processed.

Roula Eatrides, deputy chairperson of IRB’s refugee protection division, told the Commons immigration committee Thursday that it now takes 44 months for a refugee claim to be dealt with after being referred to the board. She said the IRB has a record backlog of about 250,000 cases.

On Wednesday, immigration lawyer Richard Kurland told The Globe and Mail that because asylum claims take so long to process, undocumented migrants facing deportation from the U.S. may try to find a safe haven and “buy time” in Canada, though he said few are likely to have their claims approved.

During his campaign, Mr. Trump promised to conduct the largest deportation in American history of people living there illegally. On Thursday, Mr. Trump said he will move forward with that pledge. “Really, we have no choice,” he told NBC News. There are an estimated 11 million undocumented migrants in the U.S.

The RCMP’s national headquarters confirmed Thursday it has a plan to deal with a predicted influx of migrants, informed by its experience of a surge during the first Trump presidency…

Source: Ministers urged to explain how they will prevent a surge in asylum seekers from U.S. after Trump election

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