Millions believe in conspiracy theories in Canada

Interesting public opinion research and worrisome. The “great replacement” slide below is the one that most attracted my attention. It does track, to a certain extent, the Focus Canada question, “Too many immigrants do not adapt Canadian values,” 48 percent Fall 2021:

We recently completed nationwide surveying among 1500 Canadians.  The focus was on the levels of trust people have in institutional sources of information, and belief in conspiracy theories.  This is the second in a series called “Trust & Facts: What Canadians Believe”

• 44% (the equivalent of 13 million adults) believe “big events like wars, recessions and the outcomes of elections are controlled by small groups of people working in secret against us”. Almost as many agree “much of our lives are being controlled by plots hatched in secret places

• 37% (or 11 million) think “there is a group of people in this country who are trying to replace native born Canadians with immigrants who agree with their political views. This is an articulation of what is commonly referred to as replacement theory.

• 20% believe it is definitely or probably true that “the World Economic Forum is a group of global elites with a secretive strategy to impose their ideas on the world.” Another 37% think it is possibly true or aren’t sure either way.

• 13% think it is definitely or probably true that Microsoft founder Bill Gates is using microchips to track people and affect human behaviour. Another 21% say it’s possible, or aren’t really sure.

A deeper dive into demographic and other variables that correlate with these beliefs revealed:

• Belief in these theories is higher among supporters of the People’s Party, those who self-identify on the right of the spectrum, those who have not received any COVID-19 shots, and those who think media and official government accounts of events can’t be trusted. Those who feel Pierre Poilievre is the Conservative leadership candidate closest to their values and ideas are more likely to believe these theories when compared to those who feel more aligned with Jean Charest.

 

THE UPSHOT

Canadians who want to believe that Canadian society is relatively unaffected by conspiracy thinking will find little comfort in these results. Millions believe that our lives are controlled by secret plots to undermine our interests.

That such beliefs correlate strongly with the instinct to mistrust what media report and what governments say –is a challenge that threatens all institutions that depend on an informed body politic and is like a poison affecting our civil discourse. Only recently we’ve witnessed how a massive demand for the protection offered by Covid 19 vaccines fostered a strenuous effort by those who disbelieve government and media to deny the value of those same vaccines.

This question of whether people can and should trust in institutional voices and known facts is the central theme running through the current leadership dynamic within the Conservative Party leadership race. The data make it clear that to compete for votes from the People’s Party base, Conservatives could choose to embrace conspiracy thinking, but in so doing would alienate a good portion of others, and create hesitancy among half their current voter coalition.

Perhaps the most disconcerting thing in these numbers is the fact that mistrust of institutional accounts isn’t simply neutral skepticism – it is often accompanied by a willingness to believe dangerous contrarian theories. This threatens to undermine the ability of political parties, businesses, civil society groups, and governments to help build consensus and make progress together.

Source: Millions believe in conspiracy theories in Canada

Tolley: Women and racialized political candidates are being set up to fail

I’m less pessimistic than Tolley given overall progress election to election, albeit slower than desired. And gender equity may be more of a factor in winnable ridings as visible minority and Indigenous candidates are largely, but not universally, as a function of riding demographics:

Recent elections have resulted in more women, racialized and Indigenous people holding political office in Canada. That’s good news, but we’ve got a long way to go. Elected institutions still do not reflect the demographics of the populations they claim to represent. These representational gaps are a clear indicator of democratic inequality.

It’s not that there is a shortage of qualified candidates from diverse backgrounds. It’s that the major parties still tend to privilege candidates who are white, male and middle-aged. Parties have many of the tools they need to address electoral under-representation, but rather than being a gateway into politics, parties are frequently the gatekeepers. It’s time this changed.

Political parties are the central pressure point in any effort to address electoral under-representation. The problem isn’t really voter bias: Canadians tend to base their voting on party and leader preference, and this inclinationtends to override all but the strongest prejudices against local candidates. There also isn’t a shortage of qualified candidates, but parties frequently underestimate the electoral potential of those who don’t fit the mould.

If all parties nominated a more diverse slate of candidates in winnable districts, elected institutions would be more representative.

In the lead-up to Ontario’s most recent election, commentators pointed to the high number of women and racialized candidates, including many with immigrant and minority backgrounds. But when the votes were counted, the legislature’s gender composition remained stalled at just 39-per-cent women.

What happened?

We need to look beyond aggregate candidate “diversity” numbers. It’s not just who gets nominated, but also where they run. Realizing it is electorally advantageous, some parties have attempted to recruit more women and racialized candidates, but women especially continue to be disproportionately nominated in ridings the party has no hope of winning. This isn’t inclusion.

And although there has been some progress in the right direction, it’s not enough – and it hasn’t been across all parties at all levels of government.

For example, prior to the Ontario election, the Liberals set aside 22 ridings and designated them women-only nomination contests. In the end, the party’s dismal electoral fortunes meant they only eked out a victory in one of those designated ridings, but polling indicates this was more a rejection of the party and its leader than the individual candidates.

If all parties committed to nominating more women in winnable ridings, the demographics of our elected institutions would shift.

International evidence confirms the key role that parties can play.

In 2005, Britain’s Labour Party introduced legislation that permits parties to use all-women short lists to achieve gender equality in Parliament. In the 2019 election, 51 per cent of the party’s elected MPs were women. There is noevidence voters punished Labour for using a positive discrimination measure, and the selected women were every bit as qualified as other candidates, often even more so.

There is a straight line between more equitable nomination practices and increased gender representation. Political parties that are serious about democratic equality should take note.

But parties need to think about diversity beyond gender.

In Canada, the primary beneficiaries of most diversification efforts are white women. Federally, my own research shows that racialized candidates come forward for party nomination in numbers that exceed their share of the population, but parties still show a preference for white candidates, even in some of the country’s most diverse ridings. And even when they nominate more diverse slates, parties nonetheless funnel more money to prototypical white, male candidates.

Without financial and organizational support, candidates are being set up to fail.

Politics is increasingly seen as inhospitable. Electoral engagement is at an all-time low. If parties wait to see which candidates knock on their door and want to run, chances are it will be one of the usual suspects. The time to think about candidate recruitment and organizing is now – not just at election time or the few frantic months that precede it.

Enough hand-wringing. Parties need to recognize their role and commit to action. To open the gates, they must pro-actively identify, recruit and support a more representative slate of candidates with money and organizational capacity in ridings where they can actually win.

Source: Women and racialized political candidates are being set up to fail

Learn French in 6 months? Quebec commissioned report that shows why that’s nearly impossible

Not a good look when reports are buried or hidden. Governments, of course, have no obligation to accept report findings:

A report commissioned by the Quebec government — and then kept hidden — lays out in detail why many newcomers are likely to require more than six months to learn French, contrary to new rules put forward in the province’s updated language law.

The study was ordered by the province’s Immigration Ministry in 2019 and presented in April 2021, a month before the Coalition Avenir Québec government introduced Bill 96.

It was never made public, and was obtained by CBC News under access-to-information legislation.

Source: Learn French in 6 months? Quebec commissioned report that shows why that’s nearly impossible

Analysis: Quebec focuses on French speaking immigrants as companies plea for workers

More coverage:

Quebec’s plans to attract more French-speaking newcomers are unnerving some business owners who say they need immigrants from varied backgrounds to address a tight labor market in the Canadian province.

Unlike other provinces, Quebec gets to choose its economic immigrants. The government previously lowered the number of new permanent residents it brings in, relying more on temporary workers, and says it has increased the francophone share of economic immigrants.

Premier Francois Legault’s Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) is determined to protect French, which he says is vulnerable in mostly English-speaking North America, ahead of an Oct. 3 election.

His government announced a new minister for French and passed a sweeping law requiring, among other things, newcomers to receive most non-health services in French after six months in the province.

While Legault campaigns on attracting more francophones, some business owners warn the move could put off immigrants with critical skills. Quebec has Canada’s second-highest job vacancy rate among provinces.

Montreal entrepreneur Vince Guzzo, whose businesses include restaurants and movie theaters, said he is desperate for dishwashers no matter what language they speak.

“I would download an app … and my phone would translate it in Punjabi if I had to,” Guzzo told Reuters.

According to Statistics Canada data from the fourth quarter of 2021, Quebec accounts for almost 40% of Canada’s estimated 81,000 vacant manufacturing positions. Manufacturing accounted for 12.6% of Quebec’s gross domestic product in 2021 – higher than any other sector.

“We’re not saying that French isn’t important. But it does become a limiting factor when we’re looking to attract the best people and talent that we need,” said Veronique Proulx, president of Quebec Manufacturers and Exporters.

She called Quebec’s shift toward temporary work a “band-aid” for manufacturing’s labor shortage. “We have some companies that are thinking of shutting down production lines.”

Quebec minister Jean Boulet, who is responsible for labor and immigration, said via email that his government has taken steps to attract foreign students and lure workers in priority sectors. He said the new law would include services making it easier to learn French.

Quebec plans to take in more than 71,000 permanent residents in 2022 after immigration numbers fell to 25,225 in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Boulet said CAQ deliberately brought in fewer new permanent residents after coming to power in 2018 to help newcomers integrate, and that it is making efforts to better recognize foreign credentials.

Quebec’s share of Canada’s total new permanent residents dropped to about 12.4% last year from 21.3% in 2012, according to government data.

Quebec also risks losing newcomers to other Canadian regions. About 16.3% of immigrants who came to Quebec in 2009 had left for other provinces by 2019, nearly double that of Ontario, according to Statistics Canada data.

‘NOT ALWAYS REALISTIC’

Quebec has historically been a popular destination for immigrants to Canada. But changing criteria for making temporary residents permanent and long waits to gain residency could discourage newcomers, said Montreal-based immigration lawyer Rosalie Brunel.

Boulet said 84% of economic immigrants admitted in 2021 spoke French, compared with 56% in 2019.

His office said Quebec increased its francophone share through selection of applicants in certain immigration streams and by making French programs accessible to temporary residents.

Legault wants Quebec to choose people who immigrate to join their families – a power held by Canada’s federal government – so it can select more French-speakers.

The head of one manufacturer said the government wants companies to recruit French-speaking workers.

Quebec said companies can also turn to alternatives such as automation.

“The dream is to have well-trained workers who are French speaking, but that’s not always realistic,” said Technosub Chief Executive Eric Beaupre. Technosub, based in rural Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, produces and repairs pumps for mining and other sectors.

With limited local labor, Technosub is taking on more temporary workers from Latin America and the Philippines who have needed skills and learn French on the job, he said.

Emmanuel Suerte Felipe arrived at Technosub as a temporary worker from the Philippines in 2018. His French is good enough for the job but he worries about it passing muster for permanent residency as he wants to bring his family to Quebec.

“I would love to stay here,” he said. “I found my dream job.”

Source: Analysis: Quebec focuses on French speaking immigrants as companies plea for workers

From God to monsters – the “new nationalism” of the US right

Of interest:

In the New York Times on 1 June, one of the rising stars of the conservative movement, Nate Hochman, articulated what he takes to be the direction and meaning of the American right. The central thesis of his essay is that the religious right has been supplanted by “a new kind of conservatism” more secular in orientation and focused on culture war issues such as gender, identity, and what he ever-so-gently calls “race relations”. For Hochman, this new conservatism is based in a kind of class consciousness, with much of the coalition being comprised of dissatisfied – “exploited” – middle Americans countering the depredations of cultural elites: “Today’s right-wing culture warriors think in distinctly Marxian terms: a class struggle between a proletarian base of traditionalists and a powerful public-private bureaucracy that is actively hostile to the American way of life.”

To bolster his claims, Hochman refers to Don Warren’s 1976 book The Radical Centre: Middle Americans and the Politics of Alienation:

“The right’s new culture war represents the world-view of people the sociologist Donald Warren called “Middle American radicals”, or MARs. This demographic, which makes up the heart of Mr Trump’s electoral base, is composed primarily of non-college-educated middle- and lower-middle-class white people, and it is characterised by a populist hostility to elite pieties that often converges with the old social conservatism. But MARs do not share the same religious moral commitments as their devoutly Christian counterparts, both in their political views and in their lifestyles… These voters are more nationalistic and less amenable to multiculturalism than their religious peers, and they profess a scepticism of the cosmopolitan open-society arguments for free trade and mass immigration that have been made by neoliberals and neoconservatives alike.”

Hochman also draws on the work of the late right-wing American writer Sam Francis, one of the “paleo-conservatives” who in the 1990s augured the rise of Donald Trump, and who is among the best guides to understanding the trajectory of the contemporary right. Far from being a marginal or eccentric figure, he is read by prominent conservatives as both prophet and guide. There are even rumours that Francis is the favoured reading of some Department of Homeland Security officials. That Hochman himself, a fellow at National Review and a key figure of the US intellectual right, leans so heavily on Francis is proof enough of his importance.

“What is occurring on the right,” Hochman argues in his New York Timesessay, “is a partial realisation of the programme that the hard-right writer Sam Francis championed in his 1994 essay ‘Religious Wrong’. He argued that cultural, ethnic and social identities ‘are the principal lines of conflict’ between Middle Americans and progressive elites and that the ‘religious orientation of the Christian right serves to create what Marxists like to call a “false consciousness” for Middle Americans’. In other words, political Christianity prevented the right-wing base from fully understanding the culture war as a class war – a power struggle between Middle America and a hostile federal regime. He saw Christianity’s universalist ideals as at odds with the defence of the American nation, which was being dispossessed by mass immigration and multiculturalism. ‘Organized Christianity today,’ he wrote in 2001, ‘is the enemy of the West and the race that created it.’”

Is Hochman’s argument persuasive? As others have pointed out, there are good empirical reasons to insist on the continued importance of the religious right as a key constituency, from its role in Trump’s election to the assault on Roe vs Wade to the centrality of churches in the political base of the Republican PartyBut the religious right is part of a larger whole; a broader right-wing whose central inspiration is not primarily religious.

Other features of Francis’s vision are also instructive when thinking about the contemporary American right. First, the radicalism of the project: Francis was not really a conservative; he felt that the conservative movement had failed and even urged his friend Pat Buchanan to drop the “conservative” label when running for president in 1992 and 1996. His vision of nationalism was as much a call for a new order as a return to the past. In his 1992 essay  “Nationalism, Old and New”he rejected the “old nationalism” for a “new nationalism” that would replace the individualism and egalitarianism of Hamilton and Lincoln with something else:

“The pseudo-nationalist ethic of the old nationalism that served only as a mask for the pursuit of special interests will be replaced by the social ethic of an authentic nationalism that can summon and harness the genius of a people certain of its identity and its destiny. The myth of the managerial regime that America is merely a philosophical proposition about the equality of all mankind (and therefore includes all mankind) must be replaced by a new myth of the nation as a historically and culturally unique order that commands loyalty, solidarity and discipline and excludes those who do not or cannot assimilate to its norms and interests. This is the real meaning of ‘America First’: America must be first not only among other nations but first also among the other (individual or class or sectional) interests of its people.”

Whereas the “old nationalism” spoke the “abstract” and “alienating” language of universalism, the “new nationalism” is supposedly something rooted in the essence of the “real” American people. Here Francis echoed the “concrete nationalism” of the French far-right authors Charles Maurras and Maurice Barrés that emerged towards the end of the 19th century, which differed from the “old nationalism” of liberté, égalité, fraternité. As the French historian Michel Winock writes, this nationalism would “subordinate everything to the exclusive interests of the nation, that is, the nation-state: to its force, its power, and its greatness”, and was pitched in darker, more pessimistic registers than the old republican patriotism. “This mortuary nationalism,” Winock argues, “called for a resurrection: the restoration of state authority, the strengthening of the army, the protection of the old ways, the dissolution of divisive forces. In varying dosages, xenophobia, anti-Semitism and anti-parliamentarianism were dispensed in the manner appropriate to each of the publics targeted.”

Today, in order to give an accurate picture of the conservative movement Hochman describes, the list of “varying dosages appropriate to the publics targeted” could be altered to include anti-transgenderism, immigration fears, the thinly veiled racism of the anti-critical race theory (CRT) panic, or any of the other demagogic issues the right regularly summons.

Perhaps it’s not surprising that Francis would sound like a 19th-century European reactionary since he was an admirer of the work of Georges Sorel, a heretic socialist and Dreyfusard turned anti-Dreyfusard. The major concept that Francis gets from Sorel concerns the importance of political myth. Myths in this sense are concrete, imaginative embodiments of a group’s self-conception and political aspirations; they are not abstract party programmes or utopias. Francis believed that the Middle American Radicals and their leaders had to develop such a myth to replace the myths of “old nationalism”, all that nonsense about “all men being created equal”.

Well, they have at least one now in the form of the “stolen election”: what better way to embody the entire sentiment of dispossession, be it ideological or explicitly racial, than the idea that political power is being held illegitimately by one’s opponents. Another such myth is QAnon, which imagines an elaborate, evil cabal pulling the strings and then a sudden moment of eschatological deliverance from their machinations. Arguably, anti-vaxx sentiments function this way, too: creating an opposition between a rapacious overclass and the resistance of the people’s “salt of the earth” wisdom. The idea of “the Great Replacement” is another one, too. Hochman is probably embarrassed to speak about the centrality of these lurid myths on the right, but they might help explain the “secularisation” of the GOP: maybe there are just other, more chthonic gods now.

What about the “Marxian” elements of the new right? Hochman is right about its emphasis on class struggle but wrong about on whose behalf it is being fought. One of the characterisations right-wing culture warriors like to make about identity politics or critical race theory is that it replaces the structural role “the proletariat” once had in Marxism with some dispossessed ethnic group: so, instead of the industrial working class, now it’s – to use an extreme formulation – LGBT+ Latinx people with disabilities who are supposed to be the bearers of the revolutionary project, since the proletarian revolution failed.

This sounds like a poor interpretation of Georg Lukacs’ conception of class-consciousness, but it’s also exactly what Hochman and his fellows are doing: their class might not be really working class – Hochman admits it’s really the middle and lower-middle class – but they are somehow still “proletarian”, the revolutionary, or the “counter-revolutionary” – subjects that are achieving class consciousness of their historic mission to Make America Great Again. This is almost exactly “Cultural Marxism”: it simply replaces the material determinations of class struggle with the terms of the “culture war”.

So who is the class that is doing the struggling here? Again, it’s worth returning to Francis. At some points in his writing, Francis calls his Middle American Radicals “post-bourgeois” to emphasise their dispossession and alienation from the old bourgeois traditions and values. But in his mature work Leviathan and its Enemies, which was published posthumously, he opposed the feared and hated managerial class that supposedly runs the state and corporate bureaucracies, through to the plain-old bourgeoisie, that is to say, the class that owns, the proprietors of the “entrepreneurial firm (the partnership, family firm, or individual entrepreneurship)”. Hochman is being too modest when he says it’s just the middle and lower-middle class: the right enjoys the patronage of many great magnates and their families: Thiels, Kochs, Mercers, Uihleins, Princes, DeVoses, and so on. The Republican coalition is simply the alliance of the most reactionary sections of the whole property-owning class, the bourgeoisie from petit to haute. I’d argue their attack on the administrative state and their tax raiding has as much to do with the protection of their interest in this regard than any feeling of “cultural dispossession”. Indeed, the right now seems to be successfully attracting a broader swathe of the entrepreneurial class, as Elon Musk recently signalled his “new” Republican allegiance over labour issues.

Hochman may be interested in another Marxist category: totality, the notion that we have to analyse a social and political situation in its entirety, and that failing to do so will give us a false or incomplete picture. While he is more frank than most, Hochman doesn’t want to look at the right in its totality. Although he seems comfortable with the portions of the right that, despite being demagogic and repressive, remain within the bounds of legal and civic behaviour, like the anti-trans and anti-CRT campaigns, he doesn’t want to talk about the storming of the Capitol on 6 January, or the myth of the stolen election, the great replacement theory, or the cultish worship of Trump, or the Proud Boys, who now have a significant presence in a largely Hispanic Miami-Dade Republican Party. But these things are as much, if not more, emblematic of the modern Republican Party as young Hochman isAs Francis knew and was much more open about, these primal forces were the real right, with the think tank intelligentsia trailing behind or vainly trying to guide the masses.

So now let’s recapitulate the totality of the political situation, with the help of Hochman’s essay. He wants to say this new right is essentially a secular party of the aggrieved Mittelstand that feels the national substance has been undermined by a group of cosmopolitan elites who have infiltrated all the institutions of power; that also believes immigrants threaten to replace the traditional ethnic make-up of the country; that borrows conceptions and tactics from the socialist tradition but retools them for counter-revolutionary ends; that is animated by myths of national decline and renewal; that instrumentalises racial anxieties; that brings together dissatisfied and alienated members of the intelligentsia with the conservative families of the old bourgeoisie and futurist magnates of industry; that alternates a vulgar, sneering desire to provoke and shock with phobic moral prudishness; that is obsessed with a macho masculinity; that looks to a providential figure like Trump for leadership; that has street fighting and militia cadre; and that has even attempted an illegal putsch to give its leader absolute power. If only there was historical precedent and even a word for all that.

Source: From God to monsters – the “new nationalism” of the US right

Immigration minister says he’s working on a faster path to permanence for temporary residents

Of note. Quoted in article as is CERC’s Rupa Banergee:

Immigration Minister Sean Fraser says his government is preparing to reinstate a program that would help to speed up the process of turning newcomers in Canada under temporary permits into permanent residents.

“We are looking right now at the best path forward to create a permanent pathway for temporary residents,” he told CBC’s The House in an interview airing this weekend.

A previous program called the “temporary resident to permanent resident pathway” — or TR to PR — was put in place last year for eight months after COVID-19 lockdowns shut the border to newcomers to prevent the spread of the virus.

It gave 90,000 essential workers, front-line health care workers and international students like Kushdeep Singh an accelerated path to permanent status.

Singh arrived in 2019 to study business administration at Norquest College in Edmonton. The temporary TR to PR program was announced just as he was preparing to write his final exams.

“When I first came to Canada I thought, ‘It’s gonna take almost about four years.’ Two years of my studies then two years of waiting for my PR application,” he said.

Instead, the approval came through in less than a year.

“And I told my mom. She was so, so happy,” he said. “I think she was happy because I know how hard she also worked for me, like all my journey since I came here and … how she also sacrifices, like sending me away from her, so that was a good moment.”

Clock is ticking

Fraser said the new program won’t be identical to the old one. He said he’s working under a tight 120-day timeline established in a motion approved by the Commons last month.

“That actually puts me on a clock to come up with a framework to establish this new permanent residency pathway, not just for international students, but also for temporary foreign workers,” he said.

“We’re in the depths of planning the policy so we can have a policy that’s not driven by a need to respond urgently in the face of an emergency, but actually to have a permanent pathway that provides a clear path for those seeking permanent residency who can enter Canada.”

Rupa Banerjee is a Canada research chair focusing on immigration issues at Toronto Metropolitan University. She said continuing to fast-track some people to permanent resident status is good policy.

“Focusing on individuals who are already in the country, that was an essential move at the time, when we had border closures and a lot of the pandemic restrictions,” she said during a separate panel discussion on The House.

“It also is really beneficial because we know that those who already have Canadian work experience, Canadian education, they do tend to fare better once they become permanent residents relative to those who come in one step straight from abroad.”

The federal government set a goal of accepting 432,000 newcomers this year alone. Fraser said his department is ahead of schedule, despite the pandemic and the unexpected pressures of working to resettle thousands of people fleeing conflict in both Afghanistan and Ukraine.

“This week we actually resettled the 200,000th permanent resident, more than a month and a half ahead of any year on record in Canada,” he said. “We are seeing similar trends across other lines of business like citizenship, like work permits, which in many instances are double the usual rate of processing.”

Too many pathways?

Despite the higher numbers, concerns remain about processing backlogs and what Andrew Griffith — a former senior bureaucrat with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada — calls an overly complicated immigration system with too many programs.

There are just so many pathways to immigrate to Canada. And I’m not convinced that anybody applying to Canada — or even the people who try to manage the program — that they have a full grip in terms of the program,” he said. “So there’s a real case, I think, to be made for simplification.”

Griffith argued the number of newcomers being accepted is less important than who is coming to Canada — what skills they bring and whether they can help this country improve productivity and economic growth.

Banerjee agreed that the number of newcomers is less important than who they are and whether there are services available to help them adjust to life here.

“The question is, can we actually integrate these individuals so that they can really contribute to the Canadian economy and also to Canadian society, more importantly?” he said.

Source: Immigration minister says he’s working on a faster path to permanence for temporary residents

Scofield: Canada’s worker shortage has one big upside for employers

And employees:

The supertight job market that is bedevilling employers and the Bank of Canada alike has an upside: it has managed to do quickly what employment equity practices and public policy have struggled with for years.

It has drawn in racialized workers, new immigrants, young people, older workers and women in astounding numbers, making history along the way.

Whether that kind of inclusion can last, however, is an open question that will depend on employers and public-policy makers alike.

For one, the current pace of hiring is not likely to last.

In May, the unemployment rate hit a record low of 5.1 per cent, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Employers created just 39,800 new positions over the course of a month — solid although nothing to write home about.

Still, from the start of the pandemic, the job market is now 497,000 positions larger than it was back then. In other words, after all of the ups and downs, closures and reopenings, illness and fear, that’s half a million more jobs than what we used to have, and it speaks to the resilience of the Canadian labour market.

That resilience has benefited a wide array of people who used to have a hard time getting a fair shake.

Let’s look at workers between the ages of 25 and 54 years old, to start. First Nations women in that age bracket have seen their unemployment rate plunge 9.3 percentage points over the past year to 7.3 per cent. Southeast Asian women have a 4.1 per cent unemployment rate, which is 6.3 percentage points lower than a year ago. Filipino men have a 3.4 per cent unemployment rate, down 4.7 points on the year.

Participation rates — how many people are actively working or looking for work — are also proof of significant progress for some key demographics. The participation rate is at a record high for women aged 25 to 54, at 85 per cent. That’s still lower than men of the same age (91.9 per cent), but after all of the troubles women had at the beginning of the pandemic, it’s remarkable.

The experience of newcomers to Canada is also eye-opening, says Brendon Bernard, senior economist at jobs website Indeed.com. He points out that immigrants who have been in Canada for five years or less are jumping into the job market in leaps and bounds, and they’re landing pretty good jobs.

Before the pandemic, their participation rate was 76.5 per cent. Now, it’s 84.3 per cent. And wage data shows they’re being hired into higher-income areas.

“One of Canada’s longest-standing labour market challenges has been the underemployment of newcomers. And there really has been a noticeable shift,” Bernard said in an interview.

Can it all last? Or will the pending slowdown in the Canadian economy make for “last hired, first fired” and erase the gains for demographics that have been struggling to catch up?

Jean-François Perrault, chief economist at Scotiabank, suggests it can actually last. For sure, hiring is set to slow down as the economy overheats and the central bank moves to cool it off by dramatically raising interest rates. But at the same time, Perrault points out there are about one million vacancies in the job market right now, and they’re not just going to evaporate with a slowing economy.

“There’s this huge backlog of jobs to fill,” he said. For companies hoping to just get by day to day, “these vacancies are massive, and they’re critical.”

He suspects even if the pace of hiring slows down over the next few months, vacancies will remain high. So employers are deeply concerned about long-standing labour shortages and they’ll hang on to their workers for as long as they can. It’s just too hard to ramp back up.

For politicians, this means they can’t really afford to let up on their policy attempts to draw more people into the workforce, even if the job numbers soften.

Even if there’s a downturn, the long-standing trend toward an aging population means Canada will need to encourage older workers and women to join the workforce in greater numbers over the next few years.

Ottawa’s $30-billion child care strategy was supposed to dramatically increase women’s participation in the workforce, but it has been slow to fully gear up. The returns, in terms of labour participation, are likely still years away.

And the federal Liberals are unlikely to reverse their dedication to retiring at 65 to encourage older workers to stay in the workforce longer.

But if employers and policy-makers are wise, they’ll take a look at what the tight job market has accomplished for them, appreciate what the gains to inclusivity have done for their workforce, and then lock them in.

The next slowdown doesn’t have to set us back.

Source: Canada’s worker shortage has one big upside for employers

Regulator extends deadline for immigration consultants facing new rule

Of note:

Immigration consultants have been granted a last-minute reprieve by their regulator from meeting a looming deadline in order to continue their practice before Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board.

On Friday, the College of Immigration and Citizenship Consultants extended the July 1 deadline for a new licensing requirement by one year to allow current consultants time to enrol in the new specialization course and sit for the qualifying exam.

The move, in consultation with senior officials at the refugee board, avoids operational disruptions at the board and saves consultants’ clients from having to scramble to find new legal counsel to represent their cases.

“In supporting the motion, the Board (of directors) considered that the public interest is served with respect to the need for a vulnerable and at-risk client group to proceed with scheduled hearings before the IRB in a timely fashion,” the college said in a statement to the Star.

“This new date will ensure that all those currently enrolled in one of the program pathways and those who enrol promptly will have the opportunity to complete the program requirements … before the new deadline.”

The deferral of the enforcement of the new rules came after some refugee claimants raised concerns about going before the board without legal representation, or with new representation unfamiliar with their files, because their current consultants would not be able to meet the deadline.

Since the college started offering the 4 1/2-month-long specialization course last August, there have been only two qualifying exams held. Of the 38 specialization courses scheduled — each with 35 spots available — since August, 17 of the cohorts will have completed the classes on or before July 1.

Last week, the college added more exam dates in the coming months to accommodate the needs and said it was in consultation with the refugee board to explore moving the deadline.

IRB data showed 105 consultants who will not meet the new requirement until the fall had “active” cases — some with multiple files — to be heard in July and August.

Kerry Molitor, who has been among a group of consultants raising concerns, said she was grateful the regulator listened to their voices and recognizes the interests of their clients, who are the most vulnerable and desperately need proper legal help.

“Now we can keep our existing clients and help new clients who need representation before the refugee board without worrying about having to abandon them in the middle of their proceedings,” said Molitor.

“The uncertainty was causing everyone a significant amount of stress and now we can move forward together.”

Source: Regulator extends deadline for immigration consultants facing new rule

USA: Economists hope a rebound in immigration helps curb inflation

Of note, temporary workers as a way to both address labour shortages and reduce wage pressures:

When the crowds return to Funland this summer, they’ll find familiar rides like the Fire Engines and the Sea Dragon at this small beachside amusement park.

For the first time since the pandemic began, many of those rides and games will be staffed by student guest workers from around the world.

“They are truly important to the success of our business,” said Chris Darr, the personnel manager at Funland. “We saw last year, we couldn’t fill the positions that we had.”

The number of guest workers and immigrants coming to the United States is slowly climbing again after steep declines during the pandemic. Tens of thousands of international students are back at resort towns and amusement parks. The Biden administration has released more visas for seasonal guest workers, and it’s automatically extending work permits for others.

Economists say that should ease labor shortages — and some, though not all, think it could help calm inflation too.

“Hopefully if this trend continues, and maybe accelerates, we will see the easing of some of the shortages,” said Giovanni Peri, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis.

Businesses in Rehoboth Beach rely on seasonal guest workers

Employers in Rehoboth Beach are clearly glad to have these temporary student workers back. Without them, Darr says, he couldn’t hire enough people to keep Funland open every day.

“Especially at the end of the summer, early August, we lose college students, we lose high school students back to sports and theater programs,” said Darr, a fourth-generation member of the family that owns the park.

For decades, he says, Funland has relied on students coming to the U.S. on J-1 visas. But the program was all but shut down in 2020. The numbers were up last year, though still far short of pre-pandemic levels.

“Without the J-1 visa program, we wouldn’t be able to open half of the stuff that is in the park,” he said.

This summer, Darr is expecting about two dozen student guest workers — including 21-year-old Morgan Bennett, a student from Jamaica.

“There was a listing of all the different places that I could have worked,” Bennett said. “When the person had told me the type of job that I would have encountered, I just said yes!”

The State Department says the number of participants in its summer work travel program is rebounding toward pre-pandemic levels. Roughly 30,000 participants have started the program already this year, according to a State Department official, with about 50,000 more in the pipeline. That would put the program at roughly three-quarters of its enrollment in 2019, when more than 108,000 visas were issued.

More guest workers could help ease labor shortages

Overall, the U.S. economy is about two million working-age immigrants short of where it would have been if not for the pandemic and the Trump administration’s cuts, according to Peri. He says that’s contributed to a tighter labor market, putting pressure on employers to raise wages — and in turn, prices.

“If these shortages loosens up — so if there are more workers — this should also reduce the inflationary pressures,” Peri said. That’s especially true, he says, in industries that depend heavily on immigrant labor, like hospitality.

“We were 32 employees short last summer,” said Susan Wood, who owns the Cultured Pearl Restaurant and Sushi Bar in Rehoboth Beach. “It was torture. I mean all of our staff work six, seven days. They killed themselves.”

“I worked 183 days straight at the front desk, and my husband worked more than that in the kitchen,” she said.

Wood is also participating in the J-1 visa program this year. Without those international student workers, she says, her year-round staff worked a lot of overtime last summer, driving her labor costs way up.

“We had to raise prices,” Wood said. “We raised prices because of payroll, but not nearly as much as we had to raise prices because of food costs.”

Some economists doubt that more immigration will cure inflation

The costs of food and energy are still rising fast. Economists say that’s contributing to inflation across the economy — and some are skeptical that a partial rebound in the number of guest workers and immigrants will have a measurable impact.

“I don’t think it’s going to do much to fix our inflation problem,” said Ramesh Ponnuru, the editor of the National Review, and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank in Washington.

Ponnuru argues that inflation right now is largely caused by problems in the supply chain, and that simply bringing immigration back to pre-COVID levels won’t solve those problems.

“We need an immigration policy designed with our economy’s interests in mind. We don’t have that,” Ponnuru said. “And just toggling that so that you have more of a dysfunctional immigration policy seems to me to be a mistake.”

Temporary guest workers are already making an impact on the bottom line at Thrasher’s French Fries in Rehoboth Beach. General manager Dean Shuttleworth is expecting about a dozen international student workers this summer, which means that he’ll have enough staff to reopen another location across the street that’s been shuttered since the pandemic began.

“[Memorial Day] weekend was the first time we opened our 26 Rehoboth Avenue store up in two years,” Shuttleworth said.

“Last year, we had the volume up. We were extremely busy,” he said. “So I’m in pretty good shape this year.”

Source: Economists hope a rebound in immigration helps curb inflation

‘Brought down to my knees:’ Restaurateur slams changes to New Brunswick immigration

To govern is to choose, and hard to argue that healthcare and more highly skilled international students were not a valid policy choice:

When Michael Petrovici posts a job opening for one of his northern New Brunswick restaurants, he’s lucky if he gets one application.

“It’s very, very challenging to recruit people locally,” said the entrepreneur who owns a fast-food restaurant, a coffee shop and a full-service eatery in Bathurst.

The small city on the Chaleur Bay is quickly becoming the epicentre of Canada’s restaurant industry labour shortage after the province paused a popular immigration stream used by businesses to attract workers to the area.

“We were already struggling before. Now it’s just impossible for us,” Petrovici said. “I’m not sure how we’ll get through the summer.”

At issue is a decision by the New Brunswick government to suspend the province’s express entry stream, part of the provincial nominee program.

Arlene Dunn, the province’s minister responsible for immigration, said the application process was temporarily paused to ensure the needs of all sectors are met after a significant increase in demand.

“If it was allowed to continue, under the current circumstances, the large demand on our existing programming would jeopardize access to immigration for certain sectors … such as internationally educated nurses or international students who are currently in New Brunswick,” she said in a letter to Petrovici in response to his concerns.

The Canadian Press reached out to New Brunswick government departments that oversee immigration, economic development and business for comment but did not receive a response.

Restaurants across the country are confronting a worker shortfall.

The sector was slammed by two years of pandemic shutdowns, repeated layoffs and strict capacity limits. About 13,000 eateries across the country closed permanently and many workers left the industry altogether.

“The food service industry has been the hardest hit in terms of job losses as a result of COVID,” Restaurants Canada’s Atlantic Canada vice-president Richard Alexander said.

“The impact is even more significant in Atlantic Canada because of our unique labour challenges.”

Bathurst, for example, has a median age of 53 — more than a decade older than Canada’s median age of 40.4, according to Statistics Canada.

“The aging demographic makes it tough to find workers,” Petrovici said. “Rural areas are at an ever bigger disadvantage.”

Still, New Brunswick recorded a mini population boom during the pandemic.

The province added 15,000 newcomers in just 12 months — the fastest rate of population growth since 1976 — reaching 800,000 people, the province said in March.

Yet Petrovici, who owns a Pita Pit franchise, the coffee shop Kaffeine and the full-service restaurant Au Bootlegger, said he still can’t find enough workers to staff his eateries.

“We’re in crisis mode and it’s going to get worse,” he said. “The labour shortage is a really dire situation.”

Given the recent changes to the province’s immigration program, he said four of his employees will be leaving New Brunswick.

“I am brought down to my knees,” he said in a letter to Dunn. “We already have a mountain ahead of us in small rural communities just to attract newcomers.”

The changes to the immigration program have paused applications for food service supervisors, food counter attendants and food and beverage services indefinitely, he said.

“It feels like we’re being treated like a second-class business,” said Petrovici.

In her letter to Petrovici, Dunn suggested he consider the federal temporary foreign worker program.

But Petrovici said he doesn’t have the resources required to pursue other immigration streams, which are more complicated to navigate and require labour market assessments.

“Maybe if you’re a big business owner with 20 franchise locations and can afford to pay consultants it could be worth it,” he said. “But we’re just a mom and pop shop.”

Petrovici said he was told one of the issues is a delay with the federal allocation of candidates _ the number of foreign workers the province is able to welcome each year.

Remi Lariviere, a spokesperson for the federal Immigration Department, said allocations for 2022 were delayed due to the 2021 federal election, the conflict in Ukraine and ongoing challenges related to the pandemic.

Still, he said all provinces and territories participating in these immigration programs were told they could expect, at a minimum, the same number of allocations that they received in 2021.

“They’ve sort of passed the buck to the federal immigration (department),” Petrovici said. “I don’t know what the problem really is but we need a solution.”

He added: “All we need and want is to be able to keep our doors open.”

Source: ‘Brought down to my knees:’ Restaurateur slams changes to New Brunswick immigration