Immigration minister reveals Ontario’s drop in incoming international students. It’s not as steep as expected

2024/04/08 Leave a comment

The numbers:

Ontario will see the largest drop in study permits issued in Canada — down to just 141,000 this year from 239,753 in 2023 — under the federal government’s new cap on international students, according to official data revealed on Friday.

More than two months after announcing a plan to rein in the country’s out-of-control international enrolment growth, Immigration Minister Marc Miller released a statement detailing the finalized numbers of incoming post-secondary students each province and territory is projected to receive in 2024, as well as the formula behind the allocations.

“These results will help me make decisions on allocations for 2025,” Miller said in a statement. “We will continue to work collaboratively with provinces and territories to strengthen the International Student Program and to provide international students with the supports they need to succeed in Canada.”

Across Canada, 291,914 new study permits are expected to be issued this year, representing a 28 per cent decline from 404,668 in 2023. The numbers exclude those to be granted to students enrolled in primary and secondary schools, as well as graduate programs, exempted from the cap.

The overall cut is not as deep as anticipated when Miller in January announced plans to reduce the number of new study permits issued by 35 per cent from 2023’s level, to 364,000. 

However, Ontario remains the single biggest loser and will see a whopping 41 per cent drop in new study permits issued under the cap, followed by British Columbia, which is set to receive 18 per cent fewer international students, going to 49,800 from 60,864 in 2023. 

Spike in international students mostly from Ontario schools, data reveals

Federal study permit documents obtained by CBC News reveal a handful of Ontario colleges and universities account for the greatest share of Canada’s steep growth in international students — not private colleges. And now those same institutions have the most to lose from a new cap on study permits.

Four other provinces will see a 10 per cent decline: Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

Meanwhile, other provinces will now have more spots available if they wish. Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec and Saskatchewan can see a growth of 10 per cent in intake while Nunavut, Yukon and the Northwest Territories will have room to grow as they all received fewer than 100 study permits last year.

“We are protecting the integrity of our province’s postsecondary education system by attracting the best and brightest international students to Ontario to study in areas that are critical to our economy,” Jill Dunlop, Ontario’s minister of colleges and universities, said in a statement.

“We have been working with postsecondary institutions to ensure international students are enrolled in the programs to support a pipeline of graduates for in-demand jobs.” 

Based on what he called a “net zero growth” formula, Miller said the national cap is based on the volume of expiring study permits this year. This means that the number of international students coming to Canada in 2024 equals the number of students whose permits expire this year. 

Miller initially suggested that the study permit allocations would be based on each province’s relative population size. Ontario would have seen its international student intake in 2024 dropped by 62 per cent under that model.

On Friday, he said other factors were considered before the numbers were finalized.

“For provinces that would receive more international students in 2024 than in 2023 based on population share, we adjusted their allocation to limit growth to 10 per cent compared to 2023,” he said. 

“For provinces that would receive fewer international students in 2024 than in 2023, we adjusted their allocation to lessen the negative impact in the first year and support broader regional immigration goals.”

Factoring in that 60 per cent of study permit applications are approved, the Immigration Department will process a total of 552,095 applications to reach the 291,914 target. Given study permit approval rates vary across provinces, Miller said he also topped up allocations for those with below-average approval rates.

As a result, Ontario’s public post-secondary institutions can take in as many as 235,000 applications in 2024, given that the province has decided to give almost all its allocated spots to the 24 colleges and 23 universities that are funded by taxpayers.

Miller warned that there are still other factors that may influence the actual number of international students arriving this year that are beyond the department’s control. For instance, provinces and territories with room to grow may not end up using all spots, while approval rates may fluctuate.

Critics say the government’s adjustments were welcomed as finalized numbers help provide much-needed clarity for international students considering studying in Canada.

“The government has acknowledged that approval rates have historically been inconsistent across provinces and has buffered those numbers accordingly through one-time allocation top-ups to provinces like Saskatchewan,” said Meti Basiri, CEO of ApplyBoard, a Kitchener-based online marketplace for learning institutions and international students.

“It has raised the allocations for provinces that would otherwise have seen the most significant restrictions. The impact on Ontario in particular will still be significant, but the adjusted allocations will ease the transition.” 

Source: Immigration minister reveals Ontario’s drop in incoming international students. It’s not as steep as expected

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Urback: According to Justin Trudeau, Justin Trudeau is fear-mongering on immigration,

2024/04/06 Leave a comment

Keller: The Trudeau government’s housing promises can’t fix a crisis of its own making

Good use of pointed satire to highlight the hypocrisy or wilful (?) blindness:

Someone, somewhere, appears to have taken a blowtorch to Canada’s immigration system. It’s a mess. We have too many people, and not enough homes, not enough transit, not enough health care infrastructure. International students are lining up at food banks and homeless shelters. Canadians’ attitudes on immigration are becoming more negative.

Who set fire to our once-enviable immigration system? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on a mission to find out. Just as soon as he gets all of this soot out of his hair.

Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Mr. Trudeau laid out the facts. “Over the past few years we’ve seen a massive spike in temporary immigration … that has grown at a rate far beyond what Canada has been able to absorb,” he said. He gave an example: in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants; today, it’s 7.5 per cent. “That’s something we need to get back under control,” he said, adding that temporary immigration has “caused so much pressure in our communities.”

A few years ago, someone named Justin Trudeau would have accused Mr. Trudeau of fear-mongering for making these sorts of remarks about immigration. In fact, he saidexactly that when, for example, Conservative MP Steven Blaney asked about the massive backlog in immigration applications amid a wave of asylum seekers in 2018. “It is completely irresponsible of the Conservatives to arouse fears and concerns about our immigration system and refugees,” Mr. Trudeau said at the time.

“The reason for the delays is that the Harper Conservatives spent 10 years cutting our immigration services and getting rid of the employees who process applications,” he continued. “They did not manage our immigration system responsibly.”…

Source: Opinion: According to Justin Trudeau, Justin Trudeau is fear-mongering on immigration

Less clever, but equally pointed:

 

The only way to bring housing supply and demand back into a more equitable balance, at least in the next few years, is to lower demand. And the only way to do that is for the Trudeau government to retrace its hasty steps on temporary foreign residents. That is what the government has promised. That is what it has to do.

Source: The Trudeau government’s housing promises can’t fix a crisis of its own making

My reflections on this change of direction by the PM, and the related push on housing, is that it feels like fin de régime flailing around and desperation.

The change brings to mind, one of my favourite scenes from one of my favourite movies, Casablanca:

  • Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds? [Vote me out?]
  • Captain Renault: I’m shocked! Shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. [immigration has grown too fast]
  • [a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
  • Croupier: Your winnings, sir. [poll numbers]
  • Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much. [someone, somewhere else, broke immigration]
  • [aloud]
  • Captain Renault: Everybody out at once….

 

 

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Un programme de résidence permanente «bouée de sauvetage» qui aide très peu d’Ukrainiens

2024/04/06 Leave a comment

Of note:

Le programme permettant aux Ukrainiens d’obtenir la résidence permanente s’ils ont un membre de leur famille au Canada n’a pas le succès escompté. Près de six mois après son lancement, à peine 2000 personnes ont soumis leur candidature, alors qu’ils sont près de 300 000 à se trouver au pays avec un statut temporaire.

Ouvert le 23 octobre 2023 pour une durée d’un an, ce programme fédéral qualifié de « bouée de sauvetage » par le ministre de l’Immigration de l’époque, Sean Fraser, avait suscité l’espoir, mais laissé perplexes tous ceux n’ayant pas de famille ici. « Très peu de gens vont pouvoir avoir leur résidence permanente en vertu de ce programme », a affirmé Randall Baran-Chong, directeur général de Pathfinders for Ukraine.

Selon son organisme, qui a sondé l’été dernier près de 36 000 détenteurs de l’Autorisation de voyage d’urgence Canada-Ukraine (AVUCU), à peine 7 % des répondants s’estimaient admissibles à ce programme de réunification familiale élargie. « Et si on regarde ceux qui ont le plus besoin d’aide, ce ne sont pas nécessairement des gens qui ont de la famille ici », a-t-il fait valoir.

Présentée il y a tout juste un mois par le député libéral ontarien Ali Ehsassi, une pétition demande à Justin Trudeau d’offrir aux ressortissants ukrainiens une voie simplifiée vers la résidence permanente « qui s’adresserait à ceux qui ne bénéficient pas du parcours de regroupement familial annoncé le 23 octobre 2023 ».

Arrivée avec son mari et ses trois enfants en mai 2022, Helena Lobiak n’a aucune famille ici. « J’avais rencontré sur Facebook un homme de Québec et il m’a convaincu de venir, qu’on serait en sécurité », a-t-elle raconté. « Le Canada est très loin de l’Europe, mais c’est ce qu’on voulait. De toute façon, je n’ai pas de parents en Ukraine et les parents de mon mari ne veulent pas quitter leur maison. »

Arrivés au Québec au même moment, Tatiana Banchenko, son mari et l’un de ses deux fils — l’aîné termine ses études en Pologne — n’ont pas non plus de famille au Canada. Depuis le Donbass, région gravement touchée par le conflit, ils ont choisi d’aller à Gatineau, pour y retrouver de vieux amis qu’ils connaissaient depuis 20 ans. « Nous n’avons pas étudié les programmes d’immigration, nous voulions simplement nous éloigner le plus possible de la guerre et nous envoler vers un endroit où nous aurions des amis et du soutien », explique-t-elle par écrit au Devoir.

Aucune voie « facile »

Comme les permis de travail ouverts que leur confère l’AVUCU viennent à échéance dans un an, les deux femmes, qui souhaitent refaire leur vie ici, sont inquiètes. Le permis de Tatiana Banchenko est valide jusqu’en avril 2025. « En février de cette année, j’ai déposé une demande de prolongation, mais aucune décision n’a encore été prise », dit-elle.

D’après la consultante en immigration Marina Negrivoda, si on n’a pas de parenté au Canada, plusieurs chemins mènent à la résidence permanente. Mais aucun d’entre eux n’est « facile ».

« On me demande souvent quelle est la province, ou le programme, qui permet d’avoir facilement et rapidement la résidence. Certains sont prêts à aller n’importe où, relève-t-elle. Moi, je ne vais pas conseiller aux gens de changer de province. Il faut analyser leur profil. »

Elle dit avoir eu des clients qui avaient des difficultés en français et qui ont pris la décision d’aller au Nouveau-Brunswick. « Là-bas, l’anglais est accepté, et il n’est pas nécessaire d’avoir un travail qualifié. » Ailleurs au Canada, des voies « économiques » vers la résidence permanente comportent moins d’exigences, notamment sur le plan linguistique.

Car le principal défi pour les Ukrainiens qui veulent rester au Québec, c’est la langue, avance-t-elle. « Certains pensent que suivre des cours de francisation les rendra admissibles à la résidence permanente, mais ce n’est pas suffisant. »

Pour être admissible au volet « travailleurs » du Programme de l’expérience québécoise, par exemple, il faut avoir occupé pendant 24 mois un emploi qualifié, en plus de réussir le niveau 7 (B2). Le Programme régulier des travailleurs qualifiés, dont une réforme a récemment été annoncée, exige désormais un certain niveau de français, et il n’est pas ouvert à toutes les professions.

Incertitudes

Après un an et demi de francisation, Tatiana Banchenko a terminé le niveau 7 en français et vient de commencer un cours de secrétariat. Mais elle n’a pas occupé d’emploi qualifié, pas plus que son mari, qui travaille dans la construction et comme livreur de pizza les fins de semaine. « Mon mari a un travail, mais pas de français, et moi, j’ai un peu de français, mais pas de travail », résume-t-elle. Dans ces conditions, il est difficile pour le moment de se qualifier pour un quelconque programme de résidence permanente pour rester au Québec.

Pourtant, son « rêve » est de vivre ici, où les gens « sont merveilleux » et la nature, « magnifique ». Son fils cadet, qui parle parfaitement français et qui possède tout un réseau d’amis, est troublé à l’idée de peut-être devoir partir, dit Mme Banchenko. « Nous n’avons nulle part où retourner en Ukraine. »

Helena Lobiak se demande aussi comment elle pourra obtenir un statut permanent. Après avoir suivi des cours de francisation à temps complet et obtenu un niveau 4, celle qui était enseignante en Ukraine travaille maintenant dans une garderie. « Je ne peux pas accéder à la résidence permanente ici parce que je n’ai pas encore assez d’expérience [dans ce] travail qualifié, déplore-t-elle. J’espère que mon permis de travail va être prolongé, comme ça, je pourrais améliorer encore mon français. » « Je ne vois pas de fin à cette guerre, donc j’ai besoin de savoir ce qui va arriver avec nous », conclut-elle.

Source: Un programme de résidence permanente «bouée de sauvetage» qui aide très peu d’Ukrainiens

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Is there a better place to put refugees than hotels? The push for a national asylum plan

2024/04/06 Leave a comment

Part of a national asylum plan, not mentioned by refugee advocates, has to include reviewing visa and related policies to reduce the numbers (e.g., reversing the loosening of visa restrictions regarding demonstrating adequate funds or demonstrate they will leave the country when their visas expire, exit controls to ensure solid data on visa overstays, already announced measures to cap the number of international students will have an impact):

Asylum seekers are sleeping on the pavement in downtown Toronto. An encampment spreads outside a homeless shelter in Mississauga. A church in Vaughan is building tiny homes on its Greenbelt property.

These are some of the messy consequences of the surging number of asylum seekers who are coming to Canada and landing in the GTA. And it reflects what happens when all levels of governments lack a co-ordinated game plan and fail to invest in existing infrastructure to accommodate a surging displaced population around the world, advocates for refugees warn.

The Canadian Council for Refugees (CCR) is urging the federal government to address critical gaps in the reception and support of asylum seekers by establishing a national system that replicates the one that currently supports resettled refugees such as those from Ukraine.

“We know in today’s global context that Canada will continue to receive people who are seeking protection from persecution,” Gauri Sreenivasan, the council’s co-executive director, told a news conference in Ottawa on Thursday.

“Canadians are expecting a plan, not stopgap measures, and it is long past time to put in place a comprehensive, co-ordinated, cost-effective system that treats refugee claimants with dignity and fairness.”

Canada received 137,947 new asylum claims in 2023 — up from 60,158 the year before — and many have been caught up in the country’s affordable housing crisis, despite efforts by the federal government to redirect new arrivals from big cities to smaller communities. Ottawa has also invested another $362 million to house asylum seekers this year, in addition to $212 million announced last summer.

“We will continue to be there to support vulnerable people and the communities that provide them shelter,” Immigration Minister Marc Miller told reporters in January when announcing the new money.

But there are cheaper ways to serve those needs with better planning and co-ordination, advocates say…

Source: Is there a better place to put refugees than hotels? The push for a national asylum plan

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Wells: Immigration Minister Marc Miller

2024/04/05 Leave a comment

Well worth listening to the intv:

All the time I’ve been covering politics I’ve had a category in my mind for politicians who just sound like people when they talk to me. I don’t put all that much stock in it. There are lots of ways to be good at your work, or less good, and talking’s only part of it. But just on a human level, it’s hard not to like people who don’t robot up as soon as I walk into a room.

Marc Miller is one such. He’s in a tough portfolio these days, not for the first time. Thirteen months ago he was on the pod as minister of Crown-Indigenous Affairs. Now of course he’s at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. He’s a careful talker, and like a lot of people who mistrust communications advice, he’s low on pat slogans, so at no point in our interview did he sound like he had a bunch of ready answers. But I’ve always had the impression I’m basically talking to Marc Miller, not to some homunculus version of him that he’s interposed between me and the real item. 

His job since last June is to introduce a note of caution, or a symphony, into what had been the most pro-immigration government in generations. Symphonies of caution are all the rage these days; even the prime minister has started to notice there’s something amiss. (I don’t think the text of the linked tweet quite summarizes what Justin Trudeau said, but the clip is worth hearing.)

Since the flow of new Canadians has implications for housing, federalism, and the fortunes of the official opposition, just for starters, it’s become clear that Miller has a mandate to change some policies. Which he’s done, capping international student permits and planning for a gradual cut in temporary residents. We talked about both in our interview.

We also caught up on the ambitious reform to the department’s organization that his former deputy minister, Christiane Fox, undertook last year — before she was shuffled yet again in January. (She’s now Deputy Clerk of the Privy Council.) 

And I took the opportunity to run a peculiar theory past Miller: that the recent substantial increase in immigration rates was essentially orchestrated by the McKinsey consulting firm and its former top executive, Dominic Barton. I don’t put much stock in the notion, and Miller gives it even less credence, but it led the nightly French-language national news at Radio-Canada for days on end last year, beginning with this story (the linked version of the story is in English). In the first years of this government, Barton led an advisory council on economic growththat recommended much higher immigration. Later he helped found the Century Initiative, an NGO that advocates for much higher immigration. (Barton’s name has disappeared from the group’s website since Radio-Canada started reporting.) And McKinsey has been getting far more contracts from the Liberal government than its Conservative predecessor. My Rad-Can colleagues suggested all these things are connected. I’ve now spent more time explaining the hypothesis to you than I wanted, but at least now you’ll know what I’m on about when I ask Miller about it.

I don’t endorse everything Miller says here. He’s got this thing where he pre-emptively blames Pierre Poilievre for stuff he thinks Poilievre mightsay eventually, which strikes me as a stretch. But I know few effective politicians who aren’t also ardent partisans. Anyway, give it all a listen. 

Source: Immigration Minister Marc Miller

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ICYMI: Nouvelle hausse des immigrants temporaires au Québec

2024/04/05 Leave a comment

Ongoing focus of Quebec discussion and debates:

Le nombre de résidents non permanents au Québec a de nouveau grimpé à la fin de l’année 2023, une hausse qui s’explique notamment par l’arrivée massive de demandeurs d’asile, dont le gouvernement Legault réclame de nouveau une meilleure répartition à travers le Canada.

Le dernier décompte de Statistique Canada, rendu public mercredi matin, fait état de plus de 560 000 immigrants temporaires résidant au Québec au début du premier trimestre de 2024 (1er janvier). C’est une augmentation de 32 000 personnes depuis la dernière mise à jour de l’agence statistique, rendue publique en décembre.

On compte parmi ces nouveaux arrivants près de 177 000 demandeurs d’asile, en hausse de 16 000 depuis le dernier décompte. « Clairement, il faut que le fédéral prenne ses responsabilités et répartisse les demandeurs d’asile dans l’ensemble du Canada, dans les autres provinces », a réitéré la ministre québécoise de l’Immigration, Christine Fréchette, quelques instants après avoir pris connaissance de ses nouvelles données.

Les données laissent toutefois entrevoir un ralentissement de la croissance des immigrants temporaires. Il s’agit de l’augmentation la moins importante du nombre de résidents non permanents depuis un an. Quant aux détenteurs de permis de travail et d’études, ainsi que leurs proches, ils étaient plus de 383 000 au premier jour de l’année.

La publication de ces statistiques survient à quelques heures d’une rencontre entre la ministre Fréchette et son homologue au fédéral, Marc Miller. L’élue caquiste compte bien profiter de cet entretien pour « aborder la répartition des demandeurs d’asile ».

En plus d’exiger des gestes d’Ottawa sur cette question, Québec demande que le fédéral lui verse environ 1 milliard de dollars pour compenser les services offerts aux personnes en attente d’asile depuis 2021.

Source: Nouvelle hausse des immigrants temporaires au Québec

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ICYMI: Trump’s immigration rhetoric makes inroads with some Democrats. That could be a concern for Biden

2024/04/05 Leave a comment

Of note (even if immigrants, particularly irregulars and illegals, tend to commit less crime):

The video shared by former President Donald Trump features horror movie music and footage of migrants purportedly entering the U.S. from countries including Cameroon, Afghanistan and China. Shots of men with tattoos and videos of violent crime are set against close-ups of people waving and wrapping themselves in American flags.

“They’re coming by the thousands,” Trump says in the video, posted on his social media site. “We will secure our borders. And we will restore sovereignty.”

In his speeches and online posts, Trump has ramped up anti-immigrant rhetoric as he seeks the White House a third time, casting migrants as dangerous criminals “poisoning the blood” of America. Hitting the nation’s deepest fault lines of race and national identity, his messaging often relies on falsehoods about migration. But it resonates with many of his core supporters going back a decade, to when “build the wall” chants began to ring out at his rallies.

President Joe Biden and his allies discuss the border very differently. The Democrat portrays the situation as a policy dispute that Congress can fix and hits Republicans in Washington for backing away from a border security deal after facing criticism from Trump.

But in a potentially worrying sign for Biden, Trump’s message appears to be resonating with key elements of the Democratic coalition that Biden will need to win over this November.

Roughly two-thirds of Americans now disapprove of how Biden is handling border security, including about 4 in 10 Democrats, 55% of Black adults and 73% of Hispanic adults, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in March.

A recent Pew Research Center poll found that 45% of Americans described the situation as a crisis, while another 32% said it was a major problem.

Vetress Boyce, a Chicago-based racial justice activist, was among those who expressed frustration with Biden’s immigration policies and the city’s approach as it tries to shelter newly arriving migrants. She argued Democrats should be focusing on economic investment in Black communities, not newcomers.

“They’re sending us people who are starving, the same way Blacks are starving in this country. They’re sending us people who want to escape the conditions and come here for a better lifestyle when the ones here are suffering and have been suffering for over 100 years,” Boyce said. “That recipe is a mixture for disaster. It’s a disaster just waiting to happen.”

Gracie Martinez is a 52-year-old Hispanic small business owner from Eagle Pass, Texas, the border town that Trump visited in February when he and Biden made same-day trips to the state. Martinez said she once voted for former President Barack Obama and is still a Democrat, but now backs Trump — mainly because of the border.

“It’s horrible,” she said. “It’s tons and tons of people and they’re giving them medical and money, phones,” she said, complaining those who went through the legal immigration system are treated worse.

Priscilla Hesles, 55, a teacher who lives in Eagle Pass, Texas, described the current situation as “almost an overtaking” that had changed the town.

“We don’t know where they’re hiding. We don’t know where they’ve infiltrated into and where are they going to come out of,” said Hesles, who said she used to take an evening walk to a local church, but stopped after she was shaken by an encounter with a group of men she alleged were migrants.

Immigration will almost certainly be one of the central issues in November’s election, with both sides spending the next six months trying to paint the other as wrong on border security.

The president’s reelection campaign recently launched a $30 million ad campaign targeting Latino audiences in key swing states that includes a digital ad in English and Spanish highlighting Trump’s past description of Mexican immigrants as “criminals” and “rapists.”

The White House has also mulled a series of executive actions that could drastically tighten immigration restrictions, effectively going around Congress after it failed to pass the bipartisan deal Biden endorsed.

“Trump is a fraud who is only out for himself,” said Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz. “We will make sure voters know that this November.”

Trump will campaign Tuesday in Wisconsin and Michigan this week, where he is expected to again tear into Biden on immigration. His campaign said his event in the western Michigan city of Grand Rapids will focus on what it alleged was “Biden’s Border Bloodbath.”

The former president calls recent record-high arrests for southwest border crossings an “invasion” orchestrated by Democrats to transform America’s very makeup. Trump accuses Biden of purposely allowing criminals and potential terrorists to enter the country unchecked, going so far as to claim the president isengaged in a “conspiracy to overthrow the United States of America.”

He also casts migrants — many of them women and children escaping poverty and violence — as “ poisoning the blood ” of America with drugs and disease and claimed some are “not people.” Experts who study extremism warn against using dehumanizing language in describing migrants.

There is no evidence that foreign governments are emptying their jails or mental asylums as Trump says. And while conservative news coverage has been dominated by several high-profile and heinous crimes allegedly committed by people in the country illegally, the latest FBI statistics show overall violent crime in the U.S. dropped again last year, continuing a downward trend after a pandemic-era spike.

Studies have also found that people living in the country illegally are far less likely than native-born Americans to have been arrested for violent, drug and property crimes.

“Certainly the last several months have demonstrated a clear shift in political support,” said Krish O’Mara Vignarajah, president and CEO of the immigrant resettlement group Global Refuge and a former Obama administration and State Department official.

“I think that relates to the rhetoric of the past several years,” she said, “and just this dynamic of being outmatched by a loud, extreme of xenophobic rhetoric that hasn’t been countered with reality and the facts on the ground.”

Part of what has made the border such a salient issue is that its impact is being felt far from the border.

Trump allies, most notably Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, have used state-funded buses to send more than 100,000 migrants to Democratic-led cities like New York, Denver and Chicago, where Democrats will hold this summer’s convention. While the program was initially dismissed as a publicity stunt, the influx has strained city budgets and left local leaders scrambling to provide emergency housing and medical care for new groups of migrants.

Local news coverage, meanwhile, has often been negative. Viewers have seen migrants blamed for everything from a string of gang-related New Jersey robberies to burglary rings targeting retail stores in suburban Philadelphia to measles cases in parts of Arizona and Illinois.

Abbott has deployed the Texas National Guard to the border, placed concertina wire along parts of the Rio Grande in defiance of U.S. Supreme Court orders, and has argued his state should be able to enforce its own immigration laws.

Some far-right internet sites have begun pointing to Abbott’s actions as the first salvo in a coming civil war. And Russia has also helped spread and amplifymisleading and incendiary content about U.S. immigration and border security as part of its broader efforts to polarize Americans. A recent analysis by the firm Logically, which tracks Russian disinformation, found online influencers and social media accounts linked to the Kremlin have seized on the idea of a new civil war and efforts by states like Texas to secede from the union.

Amy Cooter, who directs research at the Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, worries the current wave of civil war talk will only increase as the election nears. So far, it has generally been limited to far-right message boards. But immigration is enough of a concern generally that its political potency is intensified, Cooter said.

“Non-extremist Americans are worried about this, too,” she said. “It’s about culture and perceptions about who is an American.”

In the meantime, there are people like Rudy Menchaca, an Eagle Pass bar owner who also works for a company that imports Corona beer from Mexico and blamed the problems at the border for hurting business.

Menchaca is the kind of Hispanic voter Biden is counting on to back his reelection bid. The 27-year-old said he was never a fan of Trump’s rhetoric and how he portrayed Hispanics and Mexicans. “We’re not all like that,” he said.

But he also said he was warming to the idea of backing the former president because of the reality on the ground.

“I need those soldiers to be around if I have my business,” Menchaca said of Texas forces dispatched to the border. “The bad ones that come in could break in.”

Source: Trump’s immigration rhetoric makes inroads with some Democrats. That could be a concern for Biden

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Trudeau says temporary immigration needs to be brought ‘under control’

2024/04/04 Leave a comment

Better late than never (who let it get out of control?) One of the bigger policy and program fails of this government, one than is damaging the overall consensus in favour of immigration:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the government wants to rein in the number of temporary immigrants coming to the country, saying the situation needs to be brought “under control.”

“Whether it’s temporary foreign workers or whether it’s international students in particular, that have grown at a rate far beyond what Canada has been able to absorb,” Trudeau said at a housing announcement in Dartmouth, N.S.

“To give an example, in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants. Now we’re at 7.5 per cent of our population comprised of temporary immigrants. That’s something we need to get back under control.”

The prime minister then said that this is driving mental health challenges for international students and that more businesses are relying on temporary foreign workers, driving down wages in some sectors.

“We want to get those numbers down. It’s a responsible approach to immigration that continues on our permanent residents, as we have, but also hold the line a little more on the temporary immigration that has caused so much pressure in our communities,” Trudeau concluded.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on March 21 Ottawa would set targets for temporary residents allowed into Canada to ensure “sustainable” growth in the number of temporary residents entering the nation. Over the next three years, Miller said the goal is to reduce the amount of temporary residents to five per cent of Canada’s population.

For permanent residents, Canada has a target of 485,000 new immigrants, increasing to 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.

In their last immigration plan update, the government said there are plans to “recalibrate” the number of temporary admissions to Canada in order to ensure the system is sustainable.

In January, Miller announced a cap on student visa admissions to Canada at 360,000 permits, a 35 per cent decrease from 2023.

Source: Trudeau says temporary immigration needs to be brought ‘under control’

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The U.S. Is Rebuilding a Legal Pathway for Refugees. The Election Could Change That.

2024/04/04 Leave a comment

Indeed:

With national attention focused on the chaos at the southern border, President Biden has been steadily rebuilding a legal pathway for immigration that was gutted during the Trump administration.

The United States has allowed more than 40,000 refugees into the country in the first five months of the fiscal year after they passed a rigorous, often yearslong, screening process that includes security and medical vetting and interviews with American officers overseas.

The figure represents a significant expansion of the refugee program, which is at the heart of U.S. laws that provide desperate people from around the world with a legal way to find safe haven in the United States.

The United States has not granted refugee status to so many people in such a short period of time in more than seven years. The Biden administration is now on target to allow in 125,000 refugees this year, the most in three decades, said Angelo Fernández Hernández, a White House spokesman.

By comparison, roughly 64,000 refugees were admitted during the last three years of the Trump administration.

“The Biden administration has been talking a big talk about resettling more refugees since Biden took office,” said Julia Gelatt, an associate director at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. “Finally we are seeing the payoff in higher numbers.”

But as the presidential campaign heats up, immigration advocates fear that the gains will be wiped out if former President Donald J. Trump is elected. The former president has vowed to suspend the program if he takes office again, just as he did in 2017 for 120 days.

Mr. Trump has characterized the program as a security threat, even though refugees go through extensive background checks and screening. He reassigned officers, shuttered overseas posts and slashed the number of refugees allowed into the country every year.

The result, when Mr. Biden took office, was a system devoid of resources.

“The refugee program hangs in the balance with this election,” said Barbara L. Strack, the former lead refugee official at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services….

Source: The U.S. Is Rebuilding a Legal Pathway for Refugees. The Election Could Change That.

Filed under Immigration, Refugees Tagged with ,

Douglas Todd: Canada’s tough-talking immigration minister makes headlines, but how much is spin?

2024/04/03 Leave a comment

More than spin IMO given his actions to cap international students, reduce the number of Temporary Foreign Workers, and cap at 500,000 Permanent Residents in 2025 (albeit after the election).

Not far or fast enough, but the first Liberal minister of immigration to tackle some of the problems his predecessors created and make life somewhat easier for a possible Conservative successor:

It’s rare when a politician criticizes the record of his own party, but that’s the approach Immigration Minister Marc Miller has been adopting.

The teenage friend of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has become quotable as he goes after the “perverse effects” and “lack of integrity” in the migration system that his Liberal predecessors — John McCallum, Ahmed Hussen, Marco Mendocino and Sean Fraser — built up upon gaining power nine years ago.

When Trudeau appointed Miller in June 2023 he started off sounding like every other Liberal immigration minister — trotting out well-worn cliches about how record levels of permanent and non-permanent residents would replace retiring baby boomers and deliver economic opportunity for all.

But Miller’s tune suddenly changed last fall, along with polling results. They showed a huge shift to the federal Conservatives, a switch pundits attribute almost entirely to the rapidly increasing cost of living, especially in housing and rents, which economists say links to unparalleled population growth.

“There should be an honest conversation about what the rise in international migration means for Canada as we plan ahead,” Miller said last month.

His call for national frankness seemed a refreshing change from the Liberal habit of reinforcing English Canada’s historical taboo against debating migration policy.

At the same time he promised to decrease the number of temporary residents to five per cent of the population, from 6.5 per cent. The target for new permanent residents, meanwhile, would remain 500,000, almost double that of the Stephen Harper era.

Miller also had something blunt to say in regard to the way his own party increased the number of foreign students in Canada — hiking totals to 1.028 million last year from 352,000 in 2015.

Before promising to cap new undergraduate study permits for next year at 360,000, which he maintained is a 35 per cent reduction from the year before, Miller had admitted reluctance to reduce Canada’s “very lucrative” foreign student scheme.

Yet he conceded it “comes with some perverse effects, some fraud in the system, some people taking advantage of what is seen to be a backdoor entry into Canada.”

Miller also said he would curb the country’s dependence on the “cheap labour” supplied by guest workers, which includes international students, most of whom, unlike in most countries, are permitted to work while aiming to become citizens.

Miller appears to be taking heed that bank economists have pronounced that Canada’s migration-fuelled population expansion of 3.2 per cent last year is killing productivity rates, lowering real wages, and hiking the cost of rents and housing.

A pace of growth above three per cent has “never been seen in any developed country” since the 1950s, says Frederic Payeur, a demographer at Quebec’s provincial statistics agency.

Economists increasingly complain the unnecessary reliance on temporary foreign labour leads to lower wages in Canada, which are falling far behind other nations.

“The volumes (of non-permanent resident admissions) are a byproduct of a lack of integrity in the system,” Miller said.

He also talks of “punishing the bad actors,” including employers, immigration consultants and temporary workers who exploit Canada’s welcome.

“We want to attack the fraud in Labour Market Impact Assessments, which in some places I think is rampant,” he said, referring to the way some bosses falsely claim (sometimes after taking kickbacks) that they must hire a foreign national because no Canadian is available to do the job.

There are more such stark Millerisms out there. And they sound vital. But could they be hollow?

More than a few wonder if Miller and his party could be indulging in a new strategy of political spin. Of saying one thing and doing another.

It’s quite plausible. Britain’s long-standing Conservative government is being accused of just that. It held onto power in 2019 by promising to reduce migration levels. But last year net migration to the U.K., population 67 million, soared to an all-time record of 745,000.

But it’s also possible that Miller — who attended College Jean-de-Brebeuf with Trudeau and travelled with him on adventures to Africa and beyond — has delivered the unpleasant news to Trudeau that his one-dimensional strategy to rescue our sputtering economy by pumping up population growth is doing Canadians and newcomers more harm than good.

Whatever the motivation for Miller’s change of tone, there are reasons to be skeptical. For instance, historically, the government is promising only a modest proposal to reduce temporary resident numbers. And the Quebec MP is delaying bringing in the needed legislation to the fall.

As well, when Miller said he would take three years to trim numbers to a level that would still be much higher than before the Liberals came to power, it opens up a lot of political wiggle room. The end date for the cut would be at least 18 months after the next election, which is scheduled for October 2025.

In the meantime, it’s hard for even Miller to keep up with the catapulting numbers. Two weeks ago he said there were 2.5 million temporary residents in Canada. But, last Wednesday, Statistics Canada said the country actually had 2.7 million such guest workers, asylum seekers and foreign students.

We will have to wait and see if Miller’s self-critical rhetoric provides his party with a bump in the polls.

The harsh reality is the Liberals have strayed far from the numerical “sweet spot” that Scotia Bank says is necessary “when it comes to economic immigration — where everyone is better off over time.” Canada, population 41 million, has already blown past such a sweet spot “by multiples,” says the bank.

With so many Canadians, especially young adults, facing stagnant wages and housing distress, National Bank economists Stéfane Marion and Alexandra Ducharme have gone so far as to actually suggest a sweet spot.

“At this point,” they say, “we believe our country’s annual total population growth should not exceed 300,000 to 500,000.”

That is a far cry from what StatCan reported last week: that in 2023 the country’s surging population increased by 1.3 million, 98 per cent of it from international migration.

Is Miller willing to make a serious dent in such totals? If so, that could offer newcomers and Canadians more hope, especially in regard to the cost of shelter, but also as an antidote to sluggish wages.

The minister can say all he wants but, as with all of us, he will ultimately be judged by whether his words correspond to his actions.

Source: Douglas Todd: Canada’s tough-talking immigration minister makes headlines, but how much is spin?

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