Immigration department received intelligence about huge rise in clandestine U.S.-Canada border crossings last year

Good questions regarding senior official and minister awareness:

Intelligence experts within Canada’s border agency informed the federal immigration department last December about a big rise in illegal crossings of the Canada-U.S. border, including into the States, which raises questions about why action to curb it was not taken earlier.

An intelligence document sent to senior Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada officials, says smugglers were moving people across the border in both directions, with some foreign nationals flying into Canada at major airports and swiftly slipping across the border into the United States.

The Canada Border Services Agency’s intelligence analysis says clandestine entries have led to thousands of refugee claims, mostly in the Greater Toronto Area.

The document says “the Southbound movement into the United States (US) has grown significantly since 2022″ adding that “the majority of individuals who attempt to cross southbound illegally arrive by air, mainly at Montreal Trudeau International Airport and Toronto Pearson International Airport and move quickly.”

It found that “the vast majority were very likely in Canada for less than 6 months of which a large portion were in Canada for less than 3 weeks.”

Ministers have insisted in recent weeks, amid heightened tensions between U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and Ottawa over illegal immigration into the U.S., that Canada’s borders are secure.

But the emergence of the detailed analysis by the CBSA’s Intelligence and Investigations Directorate raises questions about whether ministers were ignorant of the extent of people smuggling into the U.S. from Canada, and in the other direction….

Source: Immigration department received intelligence about huge rise in clandestine U.S.-Canada border crossings last year

Ottawa faces calls to scrap rule allowing migrants crossing border covertly to claim asylum after two weeks

Will see what government does but my guess is that the pressures to do so will be hard to resist:

…Opposition politicians and provincial premiers have raised fears about an influx of migrants to Canada from the U.S. after president-elect Donald Trump threatened to deport about 11 million people living there illegally.

“At a minimum, the 14-day rule should be suspended temporarily until we know what we are dealing with,” said immigration lawyer Richard Kurland, who obtained the border agency’s intelligence document through an access to information request.

Under the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the U.S., asylum-seekers must make their claim in the first country in which they arrive. In March last year, the two countries restricted the agreement, ending the ability to claim asylum after crossing at Roxham Road.

Both Canada and the U.S. can terminate the agreement with six months’ notice, and they can also negotiate changes. Immigration lawyer David Matas said “the agreement could be extended by removing the possibility of staying in Canada if one enters Canada illegally and remains hidden for 14 days or more.

“That would be even more effective in discouraging traversal of the U.S. than the present form of the agreement.”

Canada does not return people to the United States if they have been charged with an offence that could subject them to the death penalty.

Warda Shazadi Meighen, a lawyer at Landings LLP, said Canada would have the power to enact additional public-interest exemptions to help people facing persecution if they were returned to the United States.

“One can imagine a scenario where women fleeing gender-based violence, and individuals facing LGBTQ+ persecution, for example, would not get adequate protection under certain administrations in the United States,” she said.

Source: Ottawa faces calls to scrap rule allowing migrants crossing border covertly to claim asylum after two weeks

Su | Trudeau’s government just sent the clearest signal yet that Canada’s doors are closing

Well, the message needed to be sent given the rapid growth of asylum seekers (encouraged by the Liberal government’s previous policies), the concerns of most Canadians and the reality of the Trump administration.

My general take, rather than just raising their legitimate concerns, academics and settlement organizations have to think what kind of advice and advocacy will be most effective in the current environment. I do think that Su’s example of privately sponsored refugees as a cornerstone is appropriate but perhaps a second step would be to suggest a respective cut in the government assisted refugees. Recognizing trade-offs in a context of zero-sums:

The Canadian government’s recent announcement of a $250,000 global ad campaign warning migrants that seeking asylum here is “not easy,” coupled with the suspension of private refugee sponsorships, is sending a chilling message: Canada’s doors are closing and so too are our commitments to humanitarian principles, multiculturalism and our international obligations to uphold the rights of refugees.

But as the federal Liberal government continues its campaign to look tough on immigration in response to internal as well as external pressures from our neighbours to the south, it is prioritizing optics over meaningful, humane solutions. The government has said immigration restrictions are necessary to reduce pressure on housing, infrastructure and social services.  

The ad campaign is part of troubling shift in our immigration policies that isn’t just short-sighted but a betrayal of our values. It underlines our long-standing identity as a welcome place of refuge and opportunity, risking Canada’s transformation into yet another country using human lives as political pawns.

We are borrowing from the failed playbooks of Australia’s Operation Sovereign Borders and U.K.’s “Stop the Boats” campaign. Campaigns widely associated with cruelty, exclusion and human rights abuse. While these programs may have reduced irregular arrivals on paper, they came at enormous human and ethical costs. Canada, once the antithesis of such approaches, risks following a similar path.

Equally concerning is the suspension of new private sponsorship applications for refugees from groups of five and community organizations citing an “oversupply” of applications and a desire not to give people fleeing war zones false hope.

Private refugee sponsorship has been a cornerstone of Canada’s refugee program and our model has been praised globally for its success. In 2015, the Canadian government proudly said, “Canada can and will do more to help Syrian refugees who are desperately seeking safety, by offering them a new home.”

By 2018, Canada accepted close to 52,000 Syrian refugees, about half of whom were privately sponsored. Since 2013, more refugees have arrived in Canada through private sponsorship than through government support and in 2019, two-thirds of refugees entered through private or community sponsorship.

Not only is the program successful and low-cost for the government, it also enables communities to welcome and integrate newcomers, embodying the very values of generosity and solidarity that underpin Canada’s self-image. Limiting this program feels like a betrayal of our history, one that risks leaving countless vulnerable individuals in limbo.

These policies reflect a dangerous pivot in Canada’s immigration philosophy — from one of proactive humanitarianism to reactive gatekeeping. While the government claims these measures address systemic challenges, they risk conflating the inefficiencies of bureaucracy with the actions of migrants themselves.

These policies are also sowing division among immigrant communities. A recent poll found 65 per cent of Canadians surveys believe the Canada government’s current plans will admit too many people. And most immigrants(67 per cent) support stricter international student policies.

However, the flip side of the growing anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiments that is not getting as much attention is that this rhetoric increases racism and discrimination for the whole immigrant population, not just newcomers or international students. The same poll found that over a third of immigrants have faced discrimination at work, especially younger BIPOC immigrants.

Hate crimes reported by the police have also doubled from 2019 to 2023, with 44.5 per cent of incidents in 2023 motivated by ethnicity or race. One will never be able to calculate the social costs of a Canada where the fabric of multiculturalism is being picked apart one policy change at a time, but we will be able to feel it.

Rupinder Singh, a Sikh man living in Scarborough, felt it when he had his turban snatched off his head by someone who jumped into a car and sped off. Singh says he is planning to go back home because of this incident because he no longer feels safe in Canada. Singh is part of a growing trend of newcomers leaving Canada.

Statistics Canada data shows that more than 15 per cent of immigrants left Canada within 20 years of landing and advocates are asking for policies on immigrant retention.

So, a $250,000 global ad campaign might not be necessary to keep people away from Canada when word-of-mouth and the high cost of living is already doing the advertising for us. That money could be better spent on developing immigration policies that prioritize dignity over deterrence. If Canada continues down this path, we risk undermining the Canadian values of generosity, multiculturalism and inclusion that has been our foundation for so long.

Source: Opinion | Trudeau’s government just sent the clearest signal yet that Canada’s doors are closing

Ontario missing strategy to match immigration to labour market needs: auditor

Of note but not surprising as once in Canada, immigrants like all people will pursue what appears be be best for them, whether in terms of economics or social and family considerations. Auditor recommendations for better data on where they end up make sense, allowing for further analysis and understanding of their reasons:

Immigrants nominated for permanent residency under Ontario’s provincial program aren’t always going to the regions or sectors that need them the most, a new auditor general report found.

The observation was made by Auditor General Shelley Spence in the audit of the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP) included in her 2024 annual report, which was released on Tuesday.

According to the report, about 37 per cent of nominees with job offers intended to settle outside of the Greater Toronto Area between 2019 and 2023.

Of those, only about three per cent of job-offer nominees landed in Northern Ontario.

“The ministry does not have an overall strategy towards a needs-based distribution of nominees across the province and particularly to regions outside of the GTA,” the auditor wrote, adding that one of OINP’s objectives is to “spread the benefits of immigration to all parts of the province and help address Ontario’s labour market needs.”

Spence noted that other provinces and the federal government have mechanisms to encourage immigration into less populated areas.

For instance, the federal government launched the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot “to boost economic immigration to smaller communities and provide a pathway for skilled foreign workers to gain permanent residency,” she wrote.

Five of the 11 participating communities are in Northern Ontario — North Bay, Sudbury, Timmins, Sault Ste. Marie and Thunder Bay — and, as of Dec. 31, 2023, almost 4,600 permanent residents across Canada had come through this pilot, Spence found.

Spence did outline a number of programs launched by the Doug Ford government meant to encourage nominees to settle outside of the GTA, like higher scoring for those with offers elsewhere and a two-year regional pilot to bring 300 nominees to Chatham-Kent, Cornwall and Quinte West/Belleville communities.

The pilot resulted in 147 OINP nominations. However, the auditor said, “No follow-up was conducted to see how successful the individuals were in these communities, or if they continue to reside in these communities.”

The government should also look at specific labour demands in those regions, which are different from those in the GTA, the auditor suggested. Nominations have not helped address the increasing job vacancies for registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses in central Ontario, she noted.

The report said that within the five-year analysis period, there were 1,730 nursing vacancies in Central Ontario and 11 OINP nominations.

The auditor recommends collecting information on intended settlement locations for all nominee streams and monitoring progress toward regional targets. The government has accepted this recommendation and pledged to “work to integrate available and reliable regional labour market data into our targets where possible.”

Source: Ontario missing strategy to match immigration to labour market needs: auditor

Canada’s limits on immigration targets will cost billions in lost revenue over next five years: RBC report

Underlines just how much the government relied on its expansionist immigration policies that increased GDP and related tax revenues but weakened GDP per capita growth:

The federal government’s plan to scale back Canada’s annual immigration targets will lower revenues by billions of dollars over the next five years, according to a new RBC report that urges Ottawa to take a cautious approach to new spending.

Royal Bank of Canada economists Cynthia Leach and Rachel Battaglia’s release Tuesday, which looks ahead to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s coming fall economic statement, says fewer immigrants will translate into lower consumption and employment growth for the economy as a whole – resulting in a significant negative impact on federal finances.

Ms. Leach, a former economist with the federal Finance Department, said in an interview that Ottawa should stay within its self-imposed targets to control the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio.

“I do think it’s important for the government to stick to its fiscal anchors‚” she said.

Ms. Leach said the government is facing several sources of economic volatility, including the immigration changes and talk of higher tariffs from U.S. president-elect Donald Trump.

The economists project that revised immigration policies will lower federal revenues by about $50-billion over five years, which is only partly offset by a $30-billion fiscal improvement tied primarily to lower-than-anticipated interest rates. The overall fiscal landscape has worsened by about $20-billion over five years compared with the 2024 budget estimates, according to the RBC report….

Source: Canada’s limits on immigration targets will cost billions in lost revenue over next five years: RBC report

Clark: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

Of note:

…On Sunday, he called for a crackdown on people coming to Canada – tightening visa requirements to make it harder to visit and setting a cap on the number of asylum-seekers.

For a long time, Mr. Poilievre didn’t go there. His party wanted MPs and candidates to steer clear of anything that suggested tough talk on immigration. It’s only in the last few months that Mr. Poilievre has ramped up criticism of the Liberal government’s failure to control a surge of temporary residents.

Now, he’s talking about cracking down on “false refugees” and warning “our Canadian jobs are being taken.”

“I think it is time for a cap. And it is time to get rid of all of the abuse,” Mr. Poilievre said in his press conference on Sunday.

He added: “We need to shut off the flow of false refugee claims who are in no danger in their country of origin but are sneaking in either through our porous border or our weak visa system, and when they land here making a false claim.”

That’s the kind of lexicon Mr. Poilievre had kept from his lips for a long time, and on an issue that wasn’t in the repertoire of attacks against the government in the Commons until November….

Source: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

Canada pulls refugee welcome mat, launches ads warning of stricter asylum rules

Responsible shift:

Once presenting itself as one of the world’s most welcoming countries to refugees and immigrants, Canada is launching a global online ad campaign cautioning asylum seekers that making a claim is hard. The C$250,000 (US$179,000) in advertisements will run through March in 11 languages, including Spanish, Urdu, Ukrainian, Hindi and Tamil, the immigration department said. They are part of a broader shift in tone by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopular government on immigration and an effort to clamp down on refugee claims.

Migrants have been blamed for high housing prices, although some experts argue this is a simplistic explanation, and polls show a growing number of Canadians think the country admits too many newcomers.

The four-month campaign is budgeted to cost a third of the total spend on similar advertisements over the previous seven years.

Search queries such as “how to claim asylum in Canada” and “refugee Canada” will prompt sponsored content titled “Canada’s asylum system – Asylum Facts,” the ministry said.

“Claiming asylum in Canada is not easy. There are strict guidelines to qualify. Find out what you need to know before you make a life-changing decision,” one ad reads. Canada has long been seen as a welcoming place for newcomers. Now its leaders are slashing immigration and trying to get temporary residents to leave and to prevent people fleeing US president-elect Donald Trump from claiming asylum.

“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada is working to combat the spread of misinformation and disinformation about Canada’s immigration system, and to highlight the risks of working with unauthorised representatives,” a department spokesperson wrote in an email.

Refugee case backlog

It may be an uphill battle. Canada’s refugee system faces a 260,000-case backlog amid growing global displacement. The government has little control over who claims asylum. Its immigration minister has hinted at fast-tracking claims deemed unlikely to succeed. The government is hoping millions of people will leave the country on their own when their visas expire, and the immigration minister has threatened to deport them if they do not.

It is a dramatic about-face for a government that for years set out the welcome mat. In January 2017, when Trump took office, Trudeau tweeted: “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada.” On November 17, nearly eight years later, Trudeau published a video promoting his government’s immigration policies, calling out “bad actors” who “have been exploiting our immigration system for their own interests.” Last month, the Liberal government, trailing in polls, announced it is slashing permanent and temporary immigration. The population is projected to shrink slightly for two years.

Ad campaigns to counter misinformation on how to apply for asylum could be useful, said University of Ottawa law professor and immigration expert Jamie Chai Yun Liew.

“On the other hand, if they’re saying, ‘You’re not welcome’ … it does seem contrary to Canada’s approach in the past,” she said. “They’ve switched their messaging.”

Source: Canada pulls refugee welcome mat, launches ads warning of stricter asylum rules

Elon Musk vs. Stephen Miller: Washington preps for battle on high-tech immigration

Will be interesting to watch. I’m betting on Citizen Musk but we shall see:

High tech companies — with Elon Musk seemingly on their side — are gearing up to push the incoming Trump administration to let more high-skilled immigrants into the U.S., setting up a potential conflict with the nativist figures in Trump’s orbit who want to minimize immigration at all costs.

During Donald Trump’s first term, Silicon Valley firms tried to impress upon Washington the importance of high-skilled immigration. They were stymied by people like Stephen Miller, a key figure in the first Trump administration now slated to serve as White House deputy chief of staff for policy.

But the tech lobby now has a powerful new ally in Musk, a key Trump donor and close confidant who since the election has called for fixes that would make it easier for “super talented people” to immigrate.

Other newly minted Trump backers in Silicon Valley, including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have placed high-skilled immigration at the center of their Washington agenda. Their rising influence has already had an impact, prompting Trump himself to float giving green cards to talented students earlier this year.

“We definitely see it as an opportunity,” said Linda Moore, president and chief executive of industry group TechNet.

Silicon Valley views the incoming administration and GOP congressional majority as its best chance in years to pass policies that let in more immigrants with rare skills in science, technology, engineering and math. Though it feels counterintuitive, Trump’s antipathy toward illegal immigration could leave him uniquely positioned to argue for more of the legal kind — especially if it comes wrapped in an argument about making America more competitive.

“In the same way that it took Nixon to go to China — because he was tough on China — President Trump may have an interesting opportunity” to get the GOP onboard with high-skilled immigration, said Vivek Chilukuri, director of the technology and national security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.

But tech lobbyists and Musk aren’t the only ones working Trump on STEM immigration. Hardcore immigration restrictionists — informally led by Miller — are also in the president-elect’s ear, cautioning that foreign STEM workers take American jobs and depress wages in high-tech industries. They prevailed during Trump’s previous presidency, when under Miller’s influence, Trump slashed the number of green cards issued and denied applications and extensions for H-1B and other skilled visas, causing some companies to lose skilled workers.

Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, believes Trump is “definitely going to be more receptive to certain kinds of legal immigration expansion” than he was in the past. Like other restrictionists, he’s warily eyeing the emerging influence of tech billionaires on the president-elect — and warning of consequences if Trump and congressional Republicans cave to their immigration asks.

“These tech lobbyists think they’re going to be feeding at the trough, just making all kinds of demands because Elon is going to support them. They’re in for a big surprise,” said Stein. He added that Trump “has to walk a very fine line so that people don’t feel betrayed.”

Other restrictionists are also alarmed. “Will the Trump administration kowtow to Silicon Valley CEOs or will it protect American tech workers? We shall see,” said Eric Ruark, director of research at anti-immigration group NumbersUSA.

The tech lobby has long urged Washington to boost the amount of STEM immigrants allowed into the country — typically through increases to the annual cap of H-1B and other visas, or through programs that would increase the availability of green cards or attach them to diplomas earned by foreign students. From microchip companies to emerging artificial intelligence firms, a wide range of tech interests warn there simply aren’t enough tech experts to staff their facilities or achieve America’s long-term strategic goals.

“AI, quantum, biotechnology — we can’t snap our fingers tomorrow and create the STEM PhDs that we need to compete in all of these areas,” said Chilukuri, whose nonprofit is funded in part by tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, as well as tech billionaires like Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms

Former minister Kenney used the terms “bogus claimants” vs bonafide, Poilievre uses the term those who lie:

With gridlock in Parliament set to continue, Poilievre said Conservatives “will make accommodations to quickly pass a border plan if it goes towards fixing Trudeau’s broken border.”

He said Canada should also cap the number of asylum seekers as it faces a significant influx in refugee claims.

Canada had nearly 250,000 refugee claims in the queue as of Sept. 30, 2024, having approved more than 33,000 claims between January and the end of September.

In all of 2023, Canada accepted 37,000 refugee claims, and in 2022, it accepted 28,000.

“I love real refugees,” Poilievre said. “Our country was built in large part by real refugees who were genuinely fleeing danger, like my wife. But I have no time for people who lie to come into our country, and that is the problem we have to cut off.”

Source: Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms

Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

Setting up expectations, dealing with the reality. We shall see:

Republican lawmakers are plotting a major revamp of immigration law and border restrictions, in a bid to deliver on one of President-elect Donald Trump’s signature issues. So far, their odds of going as big as conservatives want are looking bleak.

Despite controlling the House and Senate, the GOP faces major political hurdles down every possible path for enacting the illegal immigration crackdown that was one of their big election promises.

Immigration hardliners and those Republicans who have raised concerns about far-reaching restrictions on asylum or deportations are at odds over just how far to go on border security issues. The GOP will likely have a slim House majority — potentially with no room for error — to pull off immigration changes and will struggle to win over Senate Democrats who could filibuster legislation from the minority. Republicans have a potential procedural tool for sidestepping the filibuster — a process known as budget reconciliation — but it appears that rules governing the maneuver may prevent them from including a big revamp of immigration policy.

“We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican who has clashed with more hard-line conservatives over the issue. “What does a conference in the House want? What does the conference in the Senate want? What does President Trump want? And then that’s when we have a short window to be able to jam that all through.”

The looming struggle over immigration underscores the huge challenges Republicans face in delivering on their policy promises next year with a narrow margin in the House, the chaotic influence of Trump and internal divides even on issues that otherwise appear to unite the party….

Source: Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed