Le Devoir: Éditorial | Tout est dans la manière

2024/11/09 Leave a comment

More commentary on international students.

Comparable comments apply to the federal government that only slammed on the breaks after ignoring the impacts on housing, healthcare etc., along with “puppy mill” international student populations:

Engagé dans une course folle pour diminuer le nombre d’immigrants temporaires qu’abrite le Québec, le gouvernement de François Legault irrite plus qu’il ne rassure, car son plan de match manque de cohérence. Derniers d’une longue série de protagonistes à avoir été vexés, les universités et les cégeps implorent Québec de ne pas leur imposer un plafond d’étudiants étrangers, car cela viendrait bouleverser tout leur écosystème — de même que leur compte en banque.

Cégeps et universités ont défilé cette semaine devant la Commission des relations avec les citoyens pour se vider le coeur à propos du projet de loi 74. Cette future « Loi visant principalement à améliorer l’encadrement relatif aux étudiants étrangers » viendrait littéralement couper l’herbe sous le pied des établissements d’enseignement supérieur. Autonomes depuis belle lurette pour ce qui concerne le recrutement des étudiants venus de l’étranger, ces établissements se verront dépossédés de ce pouvoir, entièrement remis au gouvernement, qui prendrait « les décisions relatives à la gestion des demandes présentées à titre d’étudiant étranger ». Cette cassure est majeure.

Le ministre de l’Immigration, de la Francisation et de l’Intégration, Jean-François Roberge, espère que cette loi pourra freiner l’augmentation trop importante de ce groupe d’étudiants, qui a crû de 140 % de 2014 à 2023. Québec pourrait ainsi par décret fixer une limite au nombre d’étudiants étrangers admissibles. Il manque encore une donnée cruciale dans le baluchon du ministre : on ne sait pas à quelle cible il pense quand il annonce son intention de fixer un plafond. Sur les 124 000 étudiants internationaux que compte le Québec désormais, la majorité occupe les bancs des universités, puis des cégeps, mais ce nombre comprend aussi des étudiants en formation professionnelle et des élèves du niveau secondaire.

On ne pourra pas reprocher au gouvernement Legault de tenter des efforts pour juguler des entrées qu’il juge désormais excessives. Il n’a pas cessé de pointer l’indolence d’Ottawa dans le dossier migratoire, l’accusant d’être en partie responsable d’un nombre de migrants trop important au Québec en regard de sa population. Il était donc dans l’ordre des choses qu’il s’ausculte lui-même pour amoindrir le problème. Le problème principal réside dans deux pans : d’abord, le brusque changement de cap de Québec, qui le pousse à des actions brutales ; ensuite, le manque de cohérence et de vision transpirant des décisions intempestives.

Les établissements d’enseignement supérieur font totalement les frais de ce virage à 180 degrés. Peut-on vraiment blâmer les universités et les cégeps de s’insurger contre un plafond alors qu’hier encore on les encourageait à faire entrer à pleines vannes ces étudiants étrangers censés revigorer et notre économie et notre tissu social ? Il n’y a pas à aller bien loin pour trouver une magnifique trace d’incohérence. Dans le Plan stratégique 2023-2027 du ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur du Québec, dirigé par la ministre Pascale Déry, on lit bel et bien qu’« attirer davantage d’étudiants internationaux dans les collèges et les universités francophones de la province est une priorité gouvernementale. […] Ce nombre a connu une augmentation de 148 % au cours de la dernière décennie (2010-2011 à 2020-2021), dans un contexte caractérisé par une course planétaire aux talents. […] La rétention des étudiants internationaux, une fois diplômés, est une priorité gouvernementale. Elle constitue une opportunité mutuellement bénéfique à toutes les parties. D’une part, ces étudiants pourront contribuer au développement et à la croissance du Québec, et d’autre part, ils auront la possibilité de s’épanouir personnellement et professionnellement dans une société prospère et équitable ».

Bien sûr, on opposera à cet apparent manque de vision le fait que le contexte a changé et que le Québec n’a plus d’infrastructures et de services suffisamment solides pour bien intégrer un nombre aussi important de migrants. Si, en effet, « les temps changent », cela ne doit pas pour autant rendre plus acceptables des actions draconiennes qui pourraient menacer l’équilibre financier de certains établissements d’enseignement, sans compter la viabilité de quelques programmes d’études, au cégep principalement. Si l’afflux massif d’étudiants étrangers, surtout indiens, venus gonfler les rangs de certains collèges privés non subventionnés pendant la pandémie méritait une mesure comme celle imposée par Québec (couper l’accès au permis de travail postdiplôme), on ne peut pas en dire autant des groupes d’étudiants internationaux devenus une part importante et essentielle des contingents en enseignement supérieur. Ils ont leur raison d’être, et le Québec a tout fait depuis au moins le début des années 2000 pour favoriser ce rayonnement international.

Il y a le fond — une volonté de mieux contrôler les entrées migratoires — et il y a la manière. Il semble qu’avec un projet de loi aussi intrusif dans les affaires universitaires et collégiales, le Québec a négligé la manière en agissant de façon draconienne. Les universités et les cégeps sont en droit de protester.

Source: Éditorial | Tout est dans la manière

Engaged in a crazy race to reduce the number of temporary immigrants in Quebec, François Legault’s government irritates more than it reassures, because its match plan lacks coherence. The last of a long series of protagonists to have been offended, universities and CEGEPs are imploring Quebec not to impose a ceiling on foreign students, because it would upset their entire ecosystem – as well as their bank account.

CEGEPs and universities marched this week before the Citizens’ Relations Commission to empty their hearts about Bill 74. This future “Law aimed mainly at improving the supervision of foreign students” would literally cut the grass under the feet of higher education institutions. Autonomous for a long time with regard to the recruitment of students from abroad, these institutions will be dispossessed of this power, entirely given to the government, which would make “decisions relating to the management of applications submitted as foreign students”. This break is major.

The Minister of Immigration, Francisation and Integration, Jean-François Roberge, hopes that this law will be able to curb the excessive increase in this group of students, which grew by 140% from 2014 to 2023. Quebec could thus by decree set a limit on the number of eligible foreign students. A crucial fact is still missing in the minister’s baluchon: we do not know what target he is thinking of when he announces his intention to set a ceiling. Of the 124,000 international students that Quebec now has, the majority occupy the benches of universities, then CEGEPs, but this number also includes students in vocational training and high school students.

The Legault government cannot be blamed for trying efforts to curb entries that it now considers excessive. He did not stop pointing out Ottawa’s indolence in the migration file, accusing it of being partly responsible for too many migrants in Quebec compared to its population. He was therefore in the order of things that he auscultates himself to reduce the problem. The main problem lies in two sections: first, the abrupt change of course in Quebec City, which pushes it to brutal actions; second, the lack of coherence and vision transpiring from untimely decisions.

Higher education institutions are fully paying the price for this 180-degree turn. Can we really blame universities and CEGEPs for rebelling against a ceiling when only yesterday they were encouraged to bring these foreign students supposed to reinvigorate and our economy and our social fabric into full valves? You don’t have to go far to find a magnificent trace of incoherence. In the 2023-2027 Strategic Plan of the Quebec Ministry of Higher Education, led by Minister Pascale Déry, we read that “attracting more international students to French-speaking colleges and universities in the province is a government priority. […] This number has increased by 148% over the last decade (2010-2011 to 2020-2021), in a context characterized by a global race for talent. […] The retention of international students, once they graduate, is a government priority. It is a mutually beneficial opportunity for all parties. On the one hand, these students will be able to contribute to the development and growth of Quebec, and on the other hand, they will have the opportunity to flourish personally and professionally in a prosperous and equitable society.”

Of course, this apparent lack of vision will be opposed to the fact that the context has changed and that Quebec no longer has sufficiently strong infrastructure and services to properly integrate such a large number of migrants. If, indeed, “times change”, this should not make more acceptable draconian actions that could threaten the financial balance of some educational institutions, not to mention the viability of some study programs, mainly at CEGEP. If the massive influx of foreign students, especially Indians, who came to inflate the ranks of some non-subsidized private colleges during the pandemic deserved a measure like the one imposed by Quebec (cutting off access to the post-graduate work permit), the same cannot be said of the groups of international students who have become an important and essential part of the quotas in higher education. They have their raison d’être, and Quebec has done everything since at least the early 2000s to promote this international influence.

There is the substance — a desire to better control migratory inflows — and there is the way. It seems that with a bill so intrusive in university and collegiate affairs, Quebec has neglected the manner by acting in a draconian way. Universities and CEGEPs have the right to protest.

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Lavoie: U.S. election’s greatest fallout: a new immigration challenge for Canada

2024/11/08 Leave a comment

Bit light on practical advice. But of course our immigration strategy needs to be broader than a numbers game yet not be disconnected from the numbers:

…Democratic institutions governing people with diverse cultures on an equal footing is a relatively new phenomenon. We are living a great experiment, and racial, religious and cultural tensions observed in many countries suggest it will not be an easy ride. The different cultures of immigrants test and challenge our own institutions and culture, making us uncomfortable. But research shows it is possible for very different people to build trust with time. If rich countries like ours fail with this experiment, the future of the global order will be rather bleak.

Ultimately, the solution to slowing the flow of migration and truly helping people is for Canada, the U.S. and other wealthy countries to contribute to the global effort to limit climate change and reduce global inequalities. Research from the recent winners of the Nobel Prize for economics suggests that helping poorer countries develop better institutions is the best way to reduce these inequalities. The disastrous experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan show how bad we are at this. More international research and co-operation are needed.

Unfortunately, the results of Tuesday’s election will not stop the U.S. from moving toward more nationalistic policies. This is a call for Canada to stand up. Our immigration strategy should be broader than just a numbers game.

Source: U.S. election’s greatest fallout: a new immigration challenge for Canada

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Dade: Start reading policy papers from U.S. right-wing think tanks, Canada

2024/11/08 Leave a comment

Sound advice. Explore other bubbles, not just the comfortable ones. Important to understand the ideas and arguments :

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s win in Tuesday’s U.S. election is poised to bring larger economic harm to Canada than anything the country has seen in the modern area of its engagement with the United States.

To defend against the coming challenges, there are two key points for Canada to be able to anticipate, understand and survive a second Trump administration.

The first is that as a second administration, as opposed to the first, Mr. Trump and those who will populate his cabinet will not be surprised to be in power this time – they will be prepared.

The second point, related to the first, is to follow the paper and people. Instead of the tweets issued in a void of serious policy work, this time there is “substance” – for lack of a better term – to help determine which of his tweets and seemingly random announcements aren’t that random.

With this Trump administration, there are MAGA-affiliated think tanks and individuals, many of whom will likely be in the administration, who have been doing the research and policy formation to implement a Make America Great Again agenda, or their particular variant of it….

Source: Start reading policy papers from U.S. right-wing think tanks, Canada

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Immigrants Didn’t Steal the Election After All

2024/11/07 Leave a comment

Yet another myth questioned:

Among the rampant absurdities about immigration that spread from both the obscure and prominent corners of the Internet, the idea that the Biden administration was “importing” voters from abroad to help Kamala Harris win was simultaneously the silliest and the most common. Setting aside the conspiracy theories, the 2024 election provides the best evidence to date that Republicans can compete when immigration is high.

For reasons I can’t appreciate, many Republicans act as if they cannot do well if there are many immigrants in the electorate. Vice President-elect JD Vance saidrecently that immigration would permanently tilt the balance of power in favor of the Democrats. He said this even as his running mate was poised to make historic gains among Hispanic voters, many of whom are immigrants or children of immigrants. Regardless, the historical evidence shows that GOP performance improves with more immigration, so there are no data behind Vance’s fears.

The immigrant share isn’t associated with a stronger performance of either party in presidential elections. But there is a relationship between stronger Republican performance and a larger immigrant share of the US population. The Democrats controlled both houses of Congress for 83 percent of the years from 1935 to 1994 when the immigrant share of the US population was below 10 percent. Since 1995, Democrats have not controlled either house of Congress 53 percent of the time.

https://e.infogram.com/3b1be832-bfdb-442b-976a-d354eccf75b2?src=embed&wmode=transparent&auto=1

Republicans have performed much better during the high immigration periods of US history. Why? Not only do new populations assimilate, but the more Democrats compete and cater to the votes of naturalized citizens, the more US-born voters drift toward Republicans. An additional factor is that the immigrant share has been high when the unionized share of the labor force has been low, possibly because immigrants undermine unionization. 

Unions were historically the base of the Democratic Party until recently. Any benefit from naturalized citizens did not outweigh losses among the unionized population.

Does this mean that Democrats needed to be even more anti-immigrant to win? That was Kamala Harris’s assessment of the situation. But my view is that her (and Biden’s) immigration gambit backfired. Polls show that from 2019 to 2023 the share of voters saying immigration should be decreased grew just 6 points. Even though illegal immigration fell sharply in 2024, the share of Americans saying that immigration should be restricted suddenly jumped 14 points in June 2024.

Here’s what happened: Harris and Biden endorsed a bill to “shut the border” in 2024, which they reiterated as their position repeatedly before finally acting unilaterally to ban asylum in June 2024. It’s no surprise that when the heads of both parties endorse immigration restrictions, more people move toward that position. We have seen similar swings on other issues, like trade, when the head of a party (Trump) suddenly endorses a different view. Rather than neutralizing Trump’s immigration attacks, Harris’s flip validated them.

Source: Immigrants Didn’t Steal the Election After All

Filed under Immigration, Politics Tagged with , , , , , , , ,

Canada preparing for influx of U.S. migrants facing deportation after Trump’s victory, Le retour de Trump pourrait provoquer des vagues d’immigration à la frontière 

2024/11/07 Leave a comment

Here we go again and we will see whether the revised STCA helps manage the potential flow:

RCMP in Quebec say they have prepared contingency plans in case of an influx of migrants from the United States after Donald Trump’s victory, as Quebec Premier François Legault and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet raised fears about asylum claimants streaming into the province.

Mr. Legault warned about “turbulence” at the border, saying Wednesday that he expects a stream of asylum seekers from the U.S. and arguing that the capacity of Quebec to integrate new arrivals had already been exceeded.

Mr. Blanchet challenged Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the Commons about whether Canada was prepared to deal with such an influx. He said there could be millions of people in the U.S. who may want to leave and a significant number could come to Canada.

Mr. Trudeau replied that Ottawa would protect the integrity of Canadian borders….

Source: Canada preparing for influx of U.S. migrants facing deportation after Trump’s victory

Alors qu’un vent de panique se répand dans certaines communautés aux États-Unis, des experts croient qu’il faut se préparer dès maintenant à des vagues d’immigration à la frontière canadienne, à l’instar de la classe politique québécoise. La ruée pourrait être rapide et plus « désordonnée » que celle du chemin Roxham, disent-ils, et les traversées plus « périlleuses », puisque les voies normales sont presque entièrement bouchées.

En campagne, Donald Trump a promis de lancer le plus grand programme d’expulsion d’immigrants de l’histoire au jour 1 de sa présidence en utilisant la Loi sur les ennemis étrangers, un texte législatif écrit pour les périodes de guerre. Plus de 11 millions de personnes vivent sans statut aux États-Unis, et des centaines de milliers d’autres ont un statut temporaire qui expire dans les prochains mois.

« Le gouvernement doit se préparer pour affronter une potentielle crise humanitaire. » Cette exhortation sans détour vient de Fen Hampson, président du Conseil mondial pour les réfugiés et la migration.

Si ces personnes ne se qualifient pas pour demander l’asile à un poste-frontière sur la base des rares exceptions, c’est « à travers bois » et possiblement durant l’hiver qu’elles tenteront leur passage vers le Canada, entrevoit Stephan Reichhold, directeur de la Table de concertation des organismes au service des personnes réfugiées et immigrantes. Les traversées sont déjà « plus périlleuses » depuis la « fermeture » du chemin Roxham, et le risque « va s’intensifier », prévient cet observateur de longue date.

À la frontière, la Gendarmerie royale du Canada (GRC) s’active déjà en prévision d’une augmentation des passages en provenance de chez nos voisins du Sud. Dans un échange avec Le Devoir, le sergent Charles Poirier a confirmé que l’élection de M. Trump risquait d’avoir « une grosse incidence sur le nombre d’entrées irrégulières au Canada ». Un « plan de contingence » qui détermine les ressources supplémentaires à déployer à la frontière a été élaboré.

Craignant des « turbulences » migratoires un an et demi après la fermeture du chemin Roxham, le premier ministre du Québec, François Legault, a toutefois affirmé mercredi qu’il souhaitait s’assurer « que le gouvernement fédéral protège [les] frontières » avec les États-Unis.

Source: Le retour de Trump pourrait provoquer des vagues d’immigration à la frontière

As a wind of panic spreads in some communities in the United States, experts believe that we must prepare now for waves of immigration on the Canadian border, like the Quebec political class. The rush could be fast and more “messy” than that of Roxham Road, they say, and the crossings more “dangerous”, since the normal tracks are almost completely blocked.

During the campaign, Donald Trump promised to launch the largest immigrant expulsion program in history on day 1 of his presidency using the Foreign Enemies Act, a legislative text written for times of war. More than 11 million people live without status in the United States, and hundreds of thousands more have a temporary status that expires in the coming months.

“The government must prepare to face a potential humanitarian crisis. This blunt exhortation comes from Fen Hampson, president of the World Council for Refugees and Migration.

If these people do not qualify to apply for asylum at a border post on the basis of the few exceptions, it is “through the wood” and possibly during the winter that they will try their way to Canada, sees Stephan Reichhold, director of the Consultation Table of Organizations Serving Refugees and Immigrants. Crossings are already “more dangerous” since the “closure” of Roxham Road, and the risk “will intensify”, warns this long-time observer.

At the border, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) is already working in anticipation of an increase in crossings from our southern neighbours. In an exchange with Le Devoir, Sergeant Charles Poirier confirmed that the election of Mr. Trump risked having “a big impact on the number of irregular entries into Canada”. A “contingency plan” that determines the additional resources to be deployed at the border has been developed.

Fearing migratory “turmoil” a year and a half after the closure of Roxham Road, Quebec’s Prime Minister, François Legault, said on Wednesday that he wanted to ensure “that the federal government protects [the] borders” with the United States.

Filed under Immigration, Refugees Tagged with , ,

So you’re an American who now wants to move to Canada? Here’s what you need to know, American interest in moving abroad is about to ‘go into overdrive.’ These are the easiest countries to immigrate to

2024/11/07 Leave a comment

Repeat of 2016, although more words than action as there was a relatively small increase 2016 to 2019 as a percentage of all immigrants:

Immigration was one of the top issues in the 2024 United States presidential election, sparking rancorous debates between the candidates and among everyday citizens.

But now many Americans are the ones considering leaving the country, particularly for Canada, as they face another four years of Donald Trump as president.

Minnesota resident Krystal Majerus Enquist is one of those people.

She stayed up late on election night watching the results roll in, and said it was “nauseating” to learn that Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.

“Being in a country overall that has chosen someone who is hateful, spreading fear … It feels like we just keep going backwards.”

Searches for terms such as “How to move to Canada” spiked by more than 5,000 per cent over the last 24 hours, according to Google Trends, with the highest interest in the neighbouring states of Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire….

Source: So you’re an American who now wants to move to Canada? Here’s what you need to know

And for wealthy Americans, hedging their bets:

In a repeat of 2016, the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has many Americans taking stock of their options to leave the country. 

Wealthy Americans have already been making the preparations, their attorneys have told Fortune—and many were doing so as a “Plan B” regardless of who won the presidency. Other surveys have found that an increasing number of Americans at all income levels want to leave the country, with political and social unrest being a top concern, followed by the high cost of living. Over the past few years, more and more Americans have been renouncing their citizenship altogether. Anti-immigrant, anti-Semitic, and anti-LGBTQ sentiment are major drivers, as is the erosion of women’s reproductive rights, say immigration attorneys and firms.

“We saw a spike in 2017 after Trump won, and then again in 2020 due to concerns about a Democrat winning and the potential for higher taxes on income, capital gains and a wealth tax, the contested election, and the January 6 riots,” says Reaz Jafri, an attorney at international immigration law firm Withers and CEO of advisory firm Dasein.

U.S. nationals now make up the largest portion of client applications at Henley & Partners, a global citizenship firm. “We expect this now to go into overdrive and increase even further following the results of [Tuesday]’s U.S. election,” says Sarah Nicklin, Henley & Partners’s head of public relations.

Most Americans moving abroad look north to Canada or across the Atlantic to Europe, where popular destinations include Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, and Spain, according to Henley & Partners. But moving to a new country isn’t as a simple as it is domestically. Most countries have stringent requirements, and Americans can only move under certain circumstances….

Source: American interest in moving abroad is about to ‘go into overdrive.’ These are the easiest countries to immigrate to

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Quebec schools want exemption from foreign student cap, but Immigration Minister unmoved

2024/11/07 Leave a comment

More on international students in Quebec:

Public post-secondary institutions in Quebec say they should be exempt from the government’s plan to cut international students, claiming it could hurt their ability to attract top talent, but the immigration minister shows no sign of backing down.

Jean-Francois Roberge said Tuesday it’s “not reasonable” to think the government could reduce the number of foreign students in Quebec without including universities and public colleges, known as CEGEPs. Last month, Roberge tabled legislation that would give the government broad discretion to cap foreign student enrolment at Quebec schools based on region, institution and program of study.

Universities and CEGEPs say the Quebec government has encouraged them to recruit more international students in recent years, especially from French-speaking countries, only to do an about-face as part of its effort to stem the flow of non-permanent residents.

They say the government should leave them alone and instead target institutions that might be abusing the system. When Roberge announced the bill, he said some private colleges were using education as “a business model to sell Quebec and Canadian citizenship.”

But on Tuesday, Roberge made clear the bill isn’t just about tackling abuse. “We know we want to reduce the number of students and do it well,” he told reporters in Quebec City. “To think we could do all that without the CEGEPs and universities being part of the equation, I think that’s not reasonable.”…

Source: Quebec schools want exemption from foreign student cap, but Immigration Minister unmoved


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Ministry ignored immigration impacts: Report

2024/11/06 Leave a comment

Sigh…. Once again, the value of evaluation reports is demonstrated and should enjoy broader coverage for their findings:

The Canadian Immigration Department has admitted to ignoring whether foreign workers took Canadian jobs or kept wages low, Blacklock’s Reporter has reported.

Impacts are not monitored, said an internal report.

“The program is built on the assumption that benefits to Canada from the facilitation of select foreign workers exceed any potential harm to the domestic labour market,” said the Evaluation Of The International Mobility Program. “However document review and key informants pointed out that labour market impacts are not monitored.”

Auditors scrutinized a program that allowed more than 3,970,000 foreign workers into Canada from 2014 to 2022.

Most were men under the age of 34 and came from India and China.

Almost half applied to stay in Canada as permanent residents, wrote the Department of Immigration.

The Evaluation report said there were no attempts to make sure Canadian workers and wages were protected.

“The program is less aligned with commitments to consider Canadian workers first especially given the program’s continued growth,” it said….

Source: Ministry ignored immigration impacts: Report

Link: Evaluation of the International Mobility Program

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Le Devoir Éditorial | L’urgence d’agir, dans un an [immigration]

2024/11/06 Leave a comment

Assez critique:

L’urgence d’agir pour resserrer l’accueil en immigration n’est donc finalement que l’affaire du gouvernement fédéral, aux yeux de François Legault. Le premier ministre du Québec et ses troupes caquistes ont beau marteler depuis des mois que les services publics et le parc immobilier sont sous trop haute pression, son gouvernement n’a pas pour autant cru bon de profiter du dévoilement annuel de ses propres seuils en immigration pour les réduire à son tour. Pire, il explique les rehausser momentanément pour agir… dans encore un an.

Au fil des ans, le discours de François Legault s’est avéré aussi inconstant que l’accueil des immigrants permanents par son gouvernement. Il n’est tenu qu’à une seule reprise à sa cible de 40 000 admissions par année, en 2019 (l’année pandémique suivante, lors de laquelle les frontières ont été fermées, étant exclue de toute planification coordonnée). Et jamais, depuis que cette cible a été revue à la hausse, à 50 000 immigrants permanents, n’a-t-elle été respectée. Un quasi-record est maintenant prévu pour l’an prochain (après celui atteint en 2022, pour justement rattraper les années pandémiques), avec l’arrivée attendue en 2025 de jusqu’à 66 500 nouveaux arrivants, dont 13 500 à 15 000 immigrants nouvellement diplômés accueillis en vertu du Programme de l’expérience québécoise (PEQ).

Aux prises avec la popularité de ce volet du PEQ, que sa prédécesseure avait choisi de déplafonner l’an dernier, le ministre de l’Immigration, Jean-François Roberge, explique avoir décidé d’ainsi élaguer l’accumulation de ces demandes de résidence permanente tout en imposant un moratoire sur les subséquentes en vue d’avoir les « coudées franches » pour chiffrer ses seuils d’immigration des prochaines années.

Car, pour l’instant, le gouvernement caquiste s’est abstenu de tout geste décisif visant à faire fléchir les tendances migratoires qu’il déplore haut et fort. Il s’en remet plutôt à une planification pluriannuelle immuable, prétextant que celle de l’an dernier, pour 2024-2025, lui lie les mains pour l’année qui s’en vient.

Or, rien n’oblige le ministre Roberge à s’y tenir au chiffre près. La Loi sur l’immigration au Québec indique au contraire qu’il doit simplement établir ses cibles annuelles en « en tenant compte ». M. Roberge devrait le savoir, lui qui vient justement de plus que doubler sans préavis l’accueil prévu de diplômés du PEQ.

Qui plus est, le ministre a poussé l’illogisme de son gouvernement jusqu’à refuser de confirmer qu’il se préparait donc à abaisser les seuils dans deux ans. Tout au plus cela fera-t-il « partie des scénarios » étudiés, s’est-il contenté d’avancer.

Les récriminations caquistes contre une volte-face jugée insuffisante du gouvernement fédéral de Justin Trudeau, qui vient pour sa part d’annoncer une réduction de 20 % de l’immigration permanente qu’il contrôle, et ce, dès l’an prochain, tombent à plat. Le refrain de l’inaction fédérale, répété par un gouvernement québécois qui en fait encore moins dans son propre champ de compétence, sonne de plus en plus faux.

Heureusement, le ministre Roberge a vu juste en annonçant que l’équation d’accueil du Québec l’an prochain inclurait enfin — comme celle du fédéral — la réalité des résidents temporaires, trois fois plus nombreux que les immigrants permanents. L’Institut du Québec est venu adresser un éloquent rappel à l’ordre : près de la moitié des résidents non permanents en territoire québécois relèvent de la responsabilité du Québec. Et la forte hausse de l’immigration temporaire depuis trois ans s’explique d’abord par celle de l’octroi de permis de travail (161 400 personnes, soit 49 % de la croissance), et non par l’arrivée massive de demandeurs d’asile (102 000 migrants, ou 31 % de l’augmentation).

Que le gouvernement caquiste s’en tienne encore à des mesures circonscrites pour resserrer l’immigration temporaire, avec un moratoire des travailleurs à bas salaire à Montréal ou un plafond d’étudiants étrangers toujours non chiffré, devient difficilement défendable.

Recadrer le système d’immigration québécois pour en définir et en respecter la capacité d’accueil nécessite justesse et prévoyance. La CAQ tente aujourd’hui de compenser les effets de ses propres politiques visiblement mal attachées, en ayant ouvert la porte en continu aux diplômés du PEQ ou exigé une meilleure maîtrise du français sans appréhender l’explosion prévisible de la demande en francisation. Le ministre Roberge a bien raison de se réjouir du fait que 80 % des immigrants économiques accueillis l’an prochain maîtriseront le français. Cela devrait d’autant plus l’encourager à financer à une juste hauteur l’apprentissage de ceux qui ne rêvent que de pouvoir s’en féliciter à leur tour.

L’accueil migratoire, dans un monde de plus en plus imprévisible, requiert une flexibilité. Encore faut-il toutefois qu’elle ne se fasse pas en improvisant. Et encore moins en lorgnant une prochaine campagne électorale, à retardement.

Source: Éditorial | L’urgence d’agir, dans un an

The urgency of acting to tighten the reception in immigration is therefore ultimately only the business of the federal government, in the eyes of François Legault. The Quebec Prime Minister and his Caquist troops have been hammering for months that public services and the real estate stock are under too high pressure, but his government did not think it was good to take advantage of the annual unveiling of its own immigration thresholds to reduce them in turn. Worse, he explains to raise them momentarily to act… in another year.

Over the years, François Legault’s speech has proven to be as fickle as his government’s reception of permanent immigrants. It is only bound once to its target of 40,000 admissions per year, in 2019 (the following pandemic year, during which borders were closed, being excluded from any coordinated planning). And never, since this target was revised upwards, to 50,000 permanent immigrants, has it been respected. A near-record is now planned for next year (after the one reached in 2022, precisely to make up for the pandemic years), with the expected arrival in 2025 of up to 66,500 newcomers, including 13,500 to 15,000 newly graduated immigrants welcomed under the Quebec Experience Program (QEP).

Struggling with the popularity of this component of the PEQ, which its predecessor had chosen to remove last year, the Minister of Immigration, Jean-François Roberge, explains that he decided to prune the accumulation of these applications for permanent residence while imposing a moratorium on the subsequent ones in order to have the “free elbows” to quantify his immigration thresholds for the coming years.

Because, for the moment, the Caquiste government has refrained from any decisive gesture aimed at reducing the migratory tendencies that it deplores loud and clear. Instead, he relies on an immutable multi-year planning, on the pretext that last year’s, for 2024-2025, binds his hands for the year to come.

However, nothing obliges Minister Roberge to stick to it to the nearest number. The Quebec Immigration Act, on the contrary, indicates that it must simply establish its annual targets by “taking them into account”. Mr. Roberge should know this, he who has just more than doubled without notice the planned reception of PEQ graduates.

What’s more, the minister pushed the illogicality of his government to the point of refusing to confirm that it was therefore preparing to lower the thresholds in two years. At most, this will be “part of the scenarios” studied, he simply said.

The caquist recriminations against a reversal considered insufficient by the federal government of Justin Trudeau, which has just announced a 20% reduction in the permanent immigration it controls, starting next year, are falling flat. The refrain of federal inaction, repeated by a Quebec government that does even less in its own field of competence, sounds more and more wrong.

Fortunately, Minister Roberge was right in announcing that the Quebec reception equation next year would finally include — like that of the federal — the reality of temporary residents, three times more numerous than permanent immigrants. The Institut du Québec came to address an eloquent call to order: almost half of non-permanent residents in Quebec territory are the responsibility of Quebec. And the sharp increase in temporary immigration over the past three years is first explained by that of the granting of work permits (161,400 people, or 49% of growth), and not by the massive arrival of asylum seekers (102,000 migrants, or 31% of the increase).

The fact that the Caquist government still sticks to circumscribed measures to tighten temporary immigration, with a moratorium on low-wage workers in Montreal or a ceiling of foreign students still not quantified, becomes difficult to defend.

Reframing the Quebec immigration system to define and respect its reception capacity requires correctness and foresight. The CAQ is now trying to compensate for the effects of its own visibly poorly attached policies, having continuously opened the door to PEQ graduates or demanding a better command of French without apprehending the foreseeable explosion of the demand for francization. Minister Roberge is right to welcome the fact that 80% of economic immigrants welcomed next year will master French. This should all the more encourage him to finance at a fair height the learning of those who only dream of being able to congratulate themselves in turn.

Migrant reception, in an increasingly unpredictable world, requires flexibility. However, it must not be done by improvising. And even less by eyeing an upcoming election campaign, with delay.

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Le gel de l’immigration permanente, une «catastrophe», selon les experts

2024/11/06 Leave a comment

Meanwhile, in Quebec:

Catastrophe », « choc », « urgence » : au-delà de la confusion semée par l’annonce du quasi-gel de l’immigration permanente au Québec la semaine dernière, des experts invitent à voir le sentiment de panique qui se répand chez les immigrants.

La CAQ s’est « prise à son propre jeu » en politisant l’immigration, disent aussi deux chercheuses. Difficile maintenant d’agir en toute « cohérence » avec le discours politique, alors que les pressions économiques et humanitaires s’exercent de tous côtés, souligne par exemple Danièle Bélanger.

« C’est une catastrophe pour ces personnes qui ne peuvent plus changer de statut », remarque cette professeure à l’Université Laval et titulaire de la chaire de recherche du Canada sur les dynamiques migratoires mondiales. « Il n’y a aucune allusion aux effets de tout ça sur les personnes, comme si ça n’existait pas. On corrige un peu le fichier Excel et on met ça dans le broyeur », poursuit-elle.

« On parle de personnes qui arrivent ici et jouent le jeu des règles de l’immigration. Ça implique très souvent de grands changements de vie. Puis, du jour au lendemain, ces règles changent. J’ai pu observer un fort sentiment de trahison », remarque quant à elle Capucine Coustere.

Aujourd’hui chercheuse postdoctorale à l’Institut de recherche sur les migrations et la société de l’Université Concordia, Mme Coustere a consacré sa thèse à étudier les transitions entre un statut temporaire et la résidence permanente. « Les mesures concernent largement des personnes qui sont déjà ici et vont augmenter les délais pour des personnes qui sont temporaires, avec tout ce que ça implique », dit-elle, du point de vue tant de la restriction des droits que de la précarité.

Exode canadien et « urgence »

Des observateurs ainsi que le gouvernement fédéral ont déjà souligné que les resserrements récents de l’immigration temporaire et permanente pourraient augmenter le nombre de personnes qui se retrouvent dans un cul-de-sac : certaines se tourneront vers une demande d’asile, et d’autres pourraient rester sans statut sur le territoire.

D’autres immigrants encore, qui viennent de perdre la possibilité de s’installer définitivement — du moins durant le gel —, pourraient aussi décider de partir vers les autres provinces canadiennes. Le ministre fédéral de l’Immigration, Marc Miller, a d’ailleurs rehaussé la cible d’immigration francophone dans le reste du pays.

C’est d’ailleurs déjà parmi les options que les avocats en immigration soumettent à leurs clients, dit sans détour l’avocat en immigration Patrice Brunet. « Évidemment, moi, je préfère que les bons candidats restent au Québec, mais c’est au client de choisir ce qui est dans son intérêt », note-t-il en entrevue. Les changements dans le reste du Canada « sont moins intempestifs », et l’accès à la résidence « beaucoup plus rapide et sûr ».

« En ce moment, on traite beaucoup le sujet comme des chiffres, comme des inventaires de marchandise, mais ce sont des humains », ajoute-t-il aussi.

Son équipe et lui-même en ce moment transmettent « un sentiment d’urgence » à leurs clients qui sont « extrêmement stressés », tant les particuliers que les entreprises : « Déposez aussitôt que vous êtes admissibles. On ne sait pas si à minuit le programme pourrait être suspendu pour une période indéterminée. »

Des modèles qui s’entrechoquent

L’avocat n’est pourtant pas du tout contre un modèle d’immigration souvent appelé « à deux étapes », au contraire. Obtenir la résidence permanente depuis l’étranger est un système « d’un autre temps » à ses yeux.

Il y a en effet une part croissante des résidents permanents sélectionnés à même le « bassin » de temporaires. Et Jean-François Roberge, ministre de l’Immigration du Québec, a avancé, dans toutes les annonces, vouloir raffermir cette tendance. Le fait « d’essayer » un emploi et un milieu de vie au Québec permet de mieux « aligner » les demandes des employeurs et les attentes des employés, avance M. Brunet.

«Être temporaire, c’est se fréquenter avant de se marier. Il y a moins de pression et, si ça ne marche pas, j’ai toujours l’option de repartir », dit-il.

La professeure Danièle Bélanger se dit quant à elle « très partagée » sur cette idée. Les indicateurs économiques montrent bel et bien que ceux qui font cette transition en ayant déjà vécu ici coûtent moins cher à l’État et ont un meilleur taux d’emploi ainsi que des salaires supérieurs.

« Mais, d’un point de vue humain, c’est un régime migratoire qui comporte un coût humain élevé », décrit-elle. Les immigrants temporaires, peu importe leur programme, vont endurer beaucoup de choses pour arriver à cette « carotte » de la résidence permanente : « Et ce qu’on voit maintenant est que cette carotte est extrêmement volatile », dit Mme Bélanger….

Source: Le gel de l’immigration permanente, une «catastrophe», selon les experts

Disaster”, “shock”, “emergency”: beyond the confusion sown by the announcement of the quasi-freeze of permanent immigration in Quebec last week, experts invite you to see the feeling of panic that is spreading among immigrants.

The CAQ has “taken on its own game” by politicizing immigration, two researchers also say. It is now difficult to act in complete “coherence” with political discourse, while economic and humanitarian pressures are exerted from all sides, underlines Danièle Bélanger, for example.

“It’s a disaster for those people who can no longer change their status,” says this professor at Laval University and holder of the Canada Research Chair on Global Migration Dynamics. “There is no allusion to the effects of all this on people, as if it did not exist. We correct the Excel file a little and put it in the grinder, “she continues.

“We are talking about people who come here and play the game of immigration rules. It very often involves big changes in life. Then, overnight, these rules change. I was able to observe a strong feeling of betrayal, “remarks Capucine Coustere.

Now a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Research on Migration and Society at Concordia University, Ms. Coustere devoted her thesis to studying the transitions between a temporary status and permanent residence. “The measures largely concern people who are already here and will increase the deadlines for people who are temporary, with all that it implies,” she says, from the point of view of both the restriction of rights and precariousness.

Canadian exodus and “emergency”

Observers and the federal government have already pointed out that the recent tightening of temporary and permanent immigration could increase the number of people who find themselves in a cul-de-sac: some will turn to an asylum application, and others could remain without status on the territory.

Still other immigrants, who have just lost the opportunity to settle permanently — at least during the freeze — may also decide to leave for other Canadian provinces. The Federal Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, has also raised the target of Francophone immigration in the rest of the country.

It is already among the options that immigration lawyers submit to their clients, says immigration lawyer Patrice Brunet. “Obviously, I prefer that the good candidates stay in Quebec, but it’s up to the client to choose what is in his interest,” he notes in an interview. Changes in the rest of Canada “are less untimely”, and access to the residence “much faster and safer”.

“At the moment, we treat the subject a lot as numbers, as merchandise inventories, but they are human,” he also adds.

His team and himself are currently transmitting “a sense of urgency” to their customers who are “extremely stressed”, both individuals and companies: “Depose as soon as you are eligible. It is not known if at midnight the program could be suspended for an indefinite period. ”

Models that clash

However, the lawyer is not at all against an immigration model often called “two-step”, on the contrary. Obtaining permanent residence from abroad is a system “from another time” in his eyes.

There is indeed a growing share of permanent residents selected from the temporary “basin”. And Jean-François Roberge, Quebec’s Minister of Immigration, put forward, in all the announcements, that he wanted to strengthen this trend. “Trying” a job and a living environment in Quebec makes it possible to better “align” employers’ demands and employee expectations, says Mr. Brunette.

“To be temporary is to hang out before getting married. There is less pressure and, if it doesn’t work, I always have the option to leave,” he says.

Professor Danièle Bélanger says she is “very divided” on this idea. Economic indicators do show that those who make this transition having already lived here cost the state less and have a better employment rate as well as higher wages.

“But, from a human point of view, it is a migratory regime that has a high human cost,” she describes. Temporary immigrants, regardless of their program, will endure a lot to get to this “carrot” of permanent residence: “And what we see now is that this carrot is extremely volatile,” says Ms. Bélanger….

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , , ,

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