Ahead of Day 1, Trump’s Team Works to Temper Expectations on Immigration

2025/01/20 Leave a comment

Reality. But still expect degree of “shock and awe.” Risks disappointing base and perhaps reducing some anxiety given contrast between rhetoric and action:

President-elect Donald J. Trump vowed throughout his campaign to carry out the “largest deportation program in American history,” including a “Day 1” effort to send millions of immigrants “back home where they belong,” and putting “no price tag” on the effort.

But as he transitions from the campaign to the White House, Mr. Trump’s team is encountering a harsh reality of immigration policy: Easier said than done.

In public remarks and private conversations with members of Congress, Mr. Trump’s immigration team has conceded that his aspirations for mass deportations will be both costly and time-consuming.

Stephen Miller, the architect of Mr. Trump’s immigration agenda and his pick to be deputy chief of staff, met with congressional Republicans on Wednesday for a “level setting” of expectations and needs for immigration enforcement, according to a congressional member who participated in the meeting.

Tom Homan, Mr. Trump’s pick to oversee the deportations, has told Republicans to expect a phased approach that first prioritizes those with a criminal record, rather than a national sweep of any immigrant with uncertain or contested legal status. And he has made clear there is, indeed, a price tag for the efforts, saying they will need Congress to approve billions of additional dollars to carry them out.

That is a tall order on Capitol Hill, where Republicans hold slim majorities and Democrats are all but certain to oppose the funding of a mass deportation effort. Some lawmakers expect that after an initial wave of deportations of those easiest to remove, Mr. Trump will spend the rest of his time in office haggling with Congress over money for more.

“Congress needs to fund this deportation operation,” Mr. Homan told Fox Business in December. “It’s going to be expensive, and everybody is focused on how expensive it’s gonna be.”

Mr. Trump will still find ways to call attention to his early efforts to crack down, such as spotlighting deportations in Democratic-led cities or work site raids in the first days of his presidency. While appearing on Donald Trump Jr.’s podcast in November, Mr. Homan said the public should expect immigration action that creates “shock and awe.”…

Source: Ahead of Day 1, Trump’s Team Works to Temper Expectations on Immigration

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As border anxiety mounts, ads for smugglers in Canada helping migrants illegally cross into U.S. flourish on social media

2025/01/20 Leave a comment

Inevitable:

…“Canada to USA. Safe Reach,” the Facebook post says. “No police. Low price. Payment after reach.”

“Canada to USA. Safe Game. Cheapest in Market. 100-per-cent guarantee,” reads a post on Instagram.

Smugglers offering to help people cross the border illegally into the United States are openly advertising their services on social media. The Globe and Mail has found multiple posts from people smugglers who are promoting “safe” routes to the United States, including from Montreal and British Columbia, with some claiming there will be no police involvement or checkpoints.

Some advertisements call their work “dunki” or “donkey” services, with payment due upon arrival. The price, which is not always stated, is in one case listed as $3,500 for same-day service from Canada to the U.S., with “payment after reach.”

Other ads also tout smuggling services over the U.S.’s southern border, as well as to and from other countries….

Source: As border anxiety mounts, ads for smugglers in Canada helping migrants illegally cross into U.S. flourish on social media

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The U.S. and Canada quietly agreed to share personal data on permanent residents crossing the border

2025/01/17 Leave a comment

Understandable given some recent examples of security risks. Dated pre pre-Trump. But government should have been more transparent:

Top immigration lawyers say it’s “shocking” that the federal government quietly signed a new deal with the U.S. government that automatically trades troves of personal data of millions of permanent residents in either country when they try to cross the U.S.-Canada border.

In July, the U.S. and Canadian government quietly made a major change to a 2012 agreement that authorized the automatic sharing of personal information between both countries of non-residents who applied for visas.

The original deal deliberately excluded permanent residents and citizens of both countries from the information sharing regime. But an updated agreement quietly tabled in Parliament in October added permanent residents to the list of individuals whose personal information would automatically be sent to either government if they tried to cross the U.S.-Canada border.

The updated agreement, which was signed in July but came into force this month, impacts potentially millions of permanent residents in Canada and even more in the U.S. if they decide to apply for a visa to visit either country.

In a statement, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) spokesperson Jeffrey MacDonald said that information sharing between the U.S. and Canada “strengthens visitor screening and supports managed migration.”

“The Government of Canada will be authorized to use biographic or biometric information of U.S. permanent residents (PR) making an immigration application to Canada to query and obtain information concerning their immigration history with the U.S,” MacDonald wrote.

“Likewise, the U.S. will be authorized to use biographic or biometric information of Canadian PRs making an immigration application to the U.S. to query and obtain information concerning their immigration history with Canada,” he added.

According to a government website, the information being shared ranges from a visa applicant’s personal information, picture, fingerprint and immigration history.

In an interview, immigration lawyer Mario Bellissimo said that automatically sending the U.S. government data about Canadian permanent residents wanting to cross the southern border is akin to a “devaluation” of permanent resident status.

“On what basis did the government determine that permanent residence needed to be surveilled in this way?,” wondered the chair of the Canadian Bar Association’ national immigration law section.

But the changes were kept quiet by the Canadian government until a brief mention by Immigration Minister Marc Miller during a press conference Wednesday, raising significant concerns among immigration lawyers as to why the major change was kept quiet for so long.

Source: The U.S. and Canada quietly agreed to share personal data on permanent residents crossing the border

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Banergee: International university grads speak about aspirations and barriers

2025/01/17 Leave a comment

Good qualitative research, setting the stage for access to settlement services and other supports (but relatively silent on priorities, trade-offs and numbers:

…Privileges and precarity

Some interviewees arrived in Canada with financial resources and family support, allowing them to manage the high costs of education and living expenses. Others, however, took on substantial debt to finance their studies, reflecting their willingness to invest in future opportunities despite economic risk. While privilege granted access to education, and the potential for permanent residency status, their success was often constrained by precarity, including financial instability, cultural adjustment challenges, legal uncertainties and discrimination.

While students’ advantages can foster success, barriers — including unpredictable immigration systems, lack of professional networks, limited opportunities to gain relevant Canadian work experience and discriminatory treatment — often undermine them. Recognizing this tension is essential to understanding the varied experiences of international students in Canada.

Collaboration needed

Solving these challenges requires collaboration across education, immigration and employment systems. Universities must provide better support, such as work-integrated learning opportunities that connect education to careers. Immigration policies must become more transparent and predictable. Employers need to recognize their role in addressing hiring barriers and creating pathways for international graduates to gain meaningful work experience. 

Finally, appropriate settlement services are key to helping international students build long-term futures in Canada. Many of our interviewees started their journeys excited to study, settle and eventually become part of Canadian society. 

But along the way, barriers like precarious work, limited career options and immigration challenges often left them disillusioned, even after getting permanent residency. With the right supports, these graduates could navigate those hurdles more easily and stay engaged in their goals — finding meaningful work, putting down roots and contributing to their communities for the long term.

This is a pivotal moment to rethink how Canada views and supports international students. Without adequate policies and services to support their long-term success, many are at risk of leaving Canada, taking their skills, education and potential economic contributions elsewhere. 

Ensuring that these graduates feel valued and supported is essential for retaining talent and strengthening Canada’s competitive position in the global race for skilled workers.

Source: International university grads speak about aspirations and barriers

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Nearly 50,000 ‘no-show’ international students didn’t comply with their Canadian study permits last year, data show

2025/01/16 Leave a comment

Countries with highest no show rates (over 10 percent, ranked highest no show rates to lowest: Rwanda, DRC, Ghana, Jordan, Algeria, Cameroon, Iran, Turkey and Nigeria. Suggests that some of accusations of racism regarding African applicants were unfounded given higher no shows and thus entering Canada on false pretences:

Close to 50,000 international students who received study permits to come to Canada were reported as “no-shows” at the colleges and universities where they were supposed to be taking their courses, according to government figures for two months last spring.

Numbers obtained by The Globe and Mail show that the non-compliant students made up 6.9 per cent of the total number of international students recorded by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Universities and colleges are required by the immigration department to report twice a year on whether international students are enrolled and going to class in compliance with their study permits.

The International Student Compliance Regime, implemented in 2014, was designed to help spot bogus students and assist provinces in identifying questionable schools….

In March and April of 2024, colleges and universities reported to IRCC on students from 144 countries. The top 10 countries of student origin with the greatest number of “no-shows” that spring had widely ranging non-compliance rates.

They included 2.2 per cent for Philippines (representing 688 no-show students); 6.4 per cent for China (4,279 no-shows); 11.6 per cent for Iran (1,848 no-shows); and 48.1 per cent for Rwanda (802 no-shows).

Henry Lotin, a former federal economist and expert on immigration, said one way to dampen abuse of the system would be to require international students to pay fees upfront before coming to Canada….

Source: Nearly 50,000 ‘no-show’ international students didn’t comply with their Canadian study permits last year, data show

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Su | From sunny ways to stormy days: navigating Canada’s immigration debate

2025/01/16 Leave a comment

Interesting convergence in position between Su, from York University, and Poilievre, the former stating “…policies should be developed in accordance with Canada’s housing, health care and education capacities and potential,” the latter stating he would “tie the country’s population growth rate to a level that’s below the number of new homes built, and would also consider such factors as access to health-care and jobs:”

….As Canada prepares for new leadership, there is an opportunity to foster a more nuanced and productive dialogue on immigration. We can have hard and honest conversations about immigration without the racism, the hate and the punching down.

Political candidates should develop clear and consistent long-term immigration policies that balance economic needs with social cohesion. These policies should be developed in accordance with Canada’s housing, health care and education capacities and potential. Candidates should also commit to promoting the positive impacts of diversity and multiculturalism on Canadian society and economy to improve social cohesion.

By confronting our immigration identity crisis head-on, political leaders can help shape a more inclusive and prosperous future for all Canadians that stay true to our core values. Immigration has built Canada, so let’s move beyond divisive politics and work toward a unified vision that embraces Canada’s multicultural heritage while addressing the legitimate concerns of voters.

Source: Opinion | From sunny ways to stormy days: navigating Canada’s immigration debate


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Family work permits no longer available for some foreign students and workers starting next week

2025/01/16 Leave a comment

Further curbs:

Starting next week, the federal government will impose further restrictions on access to open work permits for families of international students and temporary foreign workers.

Following an announcement last fall of reductions in the number of temporary residents in Canada, Ottawa released further details Tuesday on changing the eligibility for family members of study and work permit holders to get authorization to work legally in Canada.

Effective Jan. 21, only spouses of the following international students and foreign workers will be able to apply for the family open work permits:

•Students enrolled in master’s programs that are 16 months or longer and in doctoral programs or undergraduate programs in select professions such as medicine, laws and nursing;

•Foreign workers classified as in high-skill, high-wage managerial positions or occupations generally requiring a university degree;

•Foreign workers in the lower-wage, lower-skilled spectrum in so-called TEER 2 or 3 occupations with labour shortages or in natural and applied sciences, construction, health care, natural resources, education, sports and military sectors.

In addition, the foreign worker must also have at least 16 months remaining on their work permit at the time when their spouse applies for the family work permits. Dependent children of foreign workers will no longer be eligible for this work permit.

Source: Family work permits no longer available for some foreign students and workers starting next week

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En un an, le Canada a accueilli 550 réfugiés palestiniens

2025/01/15 Leave a comment

To note:

Un programme fédéral de regroupement familial prévoit depuis le 9 janvier 2024 d’offrir 5000 visas de résident temporaire (VRT) aux réfugiés de la bande de Gaza ayant de la famille au pays. Un an après son lancement, seules 550 personnes ont pu en bénéficier.

Selon les chiffres transmis au Devoir par le ministère de l’Immigration, des Réfugiés et de la Citoyenneté du Canada (IRCC), 4663 demandes de VRT avaient pourtant été acceptées pour traitement au 14 décembre dernier.

« Ces demandes de visa de résident temporaire sont en cours d’examen afin de déterminer leur recevabilité et leur admissibilité préliminaire », avance IRCC dans un échange écrit avec Le Devoir.

De ce nombre, seules 979 personnes ayant quitté la bande de Gaza par leurs propres moyens ont pu déposer leur demande, en Égypte pour la plupart, et ont été autorisées à venir au Canada. Et parmi elles, seules 550 sont effectivement arrivées au pays, soit moins de 12 % des demandes de VRT acceptées….

Source: En un an, le Canada a accueilli 550 réfugiés palestiniens

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Canadian Immigration Tracker – November 2024

2025/01/15 Leave a comment

Highlights:

  • PR Admissions: Increase from 34,360 in October to 36,820 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2022 in parentheses): Economic – PNP 25.0% (22.8%), Economic – Federal 38.2% (51.6%), Family 52.4% (84.0%), Refugees -19.3% (-12.6%)
    • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. Decrease from 54,001 in April to 44,040 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2020): -10.7% (81.9%).
    • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: Decline from 5,507 in November (0 Arrima) to 2,561 in December (0 Arrima). December year-over-year change (change from 2022): -84.2% (23.3%)
    • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Increase from 13,135 in October (38.2% of all PRs) to 17,390 in November (47.2% of all PRs). November year-over-year change (change from 2022): 65.3% (347.0%)
  • Temporary Residents:
    • TRs/IMP: Decrease from 60,945 in October to 48,560 in November. November year-over-year (change from 2022): Agreements: 29.0% (-30.4%), Canadian Interests: -11.4% (-7.5%), Other IMP Participants -47.7% (105.2%), Not stated -39.8% (-43.4%)
      • IMP by occupation code: not meaningful given only about 10 percent have NOC codes
    • TRs/TFWP: Stable from 11,860 in October to 11,540. November year-over-year change (change from 2022): Caregivers 12.2% (19.6%), Agriculture -1.1% (-20.0%) and Other LMIA 6.3% (32.6%).
    • TRs by occupation code (September, updated quarterly): 39.8% low-wage (D), year-over-year (D) change (change from 2022) 14.0% (157.4%)
  • Students: Decrease from 32,100 in October to 28,470 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2023): All -3.1% (22.0%), post-secondary -1.4% (22.7%)
    • Applications: Decrease from 40,846 in October to 39,759 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2021): -53.6% (-49.3%)
    • Web Get a study permit: Increase from 29,396 in October to 51,416 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2022): -0.1% (-25.0%) (December data not released)
  • Asylum Claimants: Decrease from 14,155 in October to 12,590 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2022): -22.9% (28.5%)
    • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc): Increase from 62 in October to 79 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2021): 21.5% (-97.9%).
  • Settlement Services (2023): Increase from 1,941,480 in 2022 to 2,960,330 in 2023 (most recent data, services, not unique clients). 2023 year-over-year (change from 2021): 52.5% (53.3%)
  • Citizenship: Stable from 26,082 in October to 25,234 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2022): -28.9% (-29.1%)
    • Applications (2023): From 264,231 in 2022 to 317,538 in 2023. 2023 Year-over-year change (change from 2021): 20.2%% (36.3%)
  • Visitor Visas: Stable from 102,304 in October to 100,845 in November. November year-over-year change (change from 2022): -34.2% (-24.9%).

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/canadian-immigration-tracker-key-slides-november-2024-pdf/274868539

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Qian: Canada halts new parent immigration sponsorships, keeping families apart

2025/01/11 Leave a comment

A useful reminder. Also check out the detailed analysis in the 2012 Canadian Ethnic Studies paper that provides a more nuanced portrait of P&Gs than in the media (time for updating but unlikely to have changed significantly):

…A frequent argument against parent and grandparent immigration is that they will prove to be a burden on Canada’s welfare and health-care system. 

But research has demonstrated that older immigrants are not burdens on Canadian society as commonly assumed. Rather, according to an article in Canadian Ethnic Studies, “sponsored parents and/or grandparents make significant economic contributions to Canadian society as well as other non-economic ones that are often overlooked.”

For example, given the shortage of affordable child care in Canada, many immigrant families rely on grandparents to care for young children, so that their parents, especially women, can continue to work outside the home. Many elderly immigrantsalso contribute to Canada’s economy by working paid jobs and enrich Canada’s communities through their diverse volunteer services.

Canada is competing against other countries for talented workers. Allowing immigrants to reunite with their parents (and grandparents) is not only the right humanitarian choice; it is also one that will help Canadian families in their day to day lives, not to mention boost Canada’s efforts to retain much-needed talent.

Source: Canada halts new parent immigration sponsorships, keeping families apart

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