As the war in Ukraine continues, some Ukrainians will still want to seek safe haven in Canada despite the end of a special visa program, according to the head of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress.
The group’s CEO Ihor Michalchyshyn said he knows many Ukrainians who returned to their country after coming to Canada in the early days of the war, but that could change depending on what happens in Ukraine.
“It’s a good opportunity to remind people that the war is still on. People are still moving around, there is a lot of uncertainty. I don’t think anybody knows where they will end up or what they’re going back to.”
Over the weekend, the government allowed a special visa program, the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel, to expire. The program allowed Ukrainians to apply to come to Canada with limited barriers and allowed them to stay for up to three years, work legally and receive settlement supports.
The government rejected calls to extend that program and will not accept new applications, though anyone who has already applied and been approved will still be able to come to Canada until March 2024.
The government first unveiled the new program in March 2022, just weeks after the invasion. In total, the government received 1.1 million applications, roughly 800,000 of them have been processed and approximately 166,000 people have come to Canada.
The program was initially set to expire in March, but was extended until July 15. During that extension period 140,000 people applied.
Michalchyshyn said there has been a slowdown in the number of new arrivals from Ukraine, but with the war still threatening civilians, many Ukrainians who hold one of the special visas may decide to come.
“There isn’t a city or a region that hasn’t been touched. Every Ukrainian knows somebody who’s fighting or who’s been killed,” he said. “Ultimately, we need Ukraine to win the war and establish a peace for people to have that context and make decisions.
Ukraine had a pre-war population of just over 40 million, but estimates suggest as many as 10 million people have fled the country since the invasion began on top of others who have been internally displaced. The country’s population has been in decline for decades and could continue to shrink in the years ahead.
Michalchyshyn said when the war is over he believes many Ukrainians will return, but some may decide to start new lives here. Canada is currently home to the largest Ukrainian disapora in the world outside of Russia.
“The government of Ukraine is going to do everything it can to encourage people to come back when they feel safe, and there are lots of people going back now,” he said. “It’s a family decision. It’s an individual decision based on circumstances, based on what they see in their future.”
Mary Rose Sabater, a spokesperson for the immigration department, said after the previous extension, they decided now was the time to wind down the program. She said that doesn’t mean Ukrainians can no longer immigrate.
“Ukrainians are still able to come to Canada by applying through Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s existing temporary resident programs. In recognition of the continued danger while Russia’s invasion continues, we’re implementing these new measures to ensure continued support to Ukrainians in Canada,” she said.
While it ended the special visa program, the government did announce a new process for Ukrainians with family in Canada to become permanent residents.
Sabater said Canada still wants to help for as long as the war continues.
“The Government of Canada continues to do everything possible to help those fleeing Russia’s invasion, which includes providing a safe haven and peace of mind.”
Andrew Griffith, a fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and former director general with Citizenship and Immigration, said the Ukrainians who have travelled to Canada are largely younger people with post-secondary educations — the kind of people Canada is usually looking for.
He said balancing the collective good of Ukraine and the individual good for people fleeing the war is part of the balance of any immigration policy, but he said Canada tends not to be overly concerned about what happens to source countries.
“I have never seen any evidence that we consider the interest of the source country in any meaningful way.”
He said the government’s choice to end new applications for the special visa program is a reasonable measure and a sign to those people who have been approved that they need to make a decision.
“It sends a signal to people that if they want to use this pathway, they’ve got a certain limited amount of time to do it.”
Of course, always easier while in opposition but 2014 should be a cautionary tale about Temporary Foreign Workers as well as an example of a government pivot when the Conservatives and Jason Kenney had to reverse course:
Mr. Trudeau, in 2023, leads a federal government that has overseen a surge in the country’s reliance on low-wage temporary foreign workers. The federal Liberals stoked this increase: they loosened the rules early last year. According to the latest data, reported by The Globe last week, Ottawa has approved the hiring of almost 80,000 low-wage foreign workers in the year after the rules were eased. That’s triple the level of the 12 months before the change.
Language is central to integration and more positive socio-economic outcomes:
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants who enter Canada annually are required to take a language test. But their scores expire within the next two years — one of many problems critics have with the test.
The Canadian government invited 431,645 permanent residents into the country last year — a record high. Most are required to be proficient in either English or French.
Applicants can attempt either of the two tests recognized by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) — the Canadian English Language Proficiency Index Program (CELPIP) or the International English Language Testing System (IELTS). Both cost more than $250 and the results are only valid for two years. There are also French tests that have the same validity period and cost about the same.
Results from a language test are also sometimes required when immigrants enrol in university or apply for work permits.
The price of the exam, and potentially having to pay to take it multiple times, is just one issue advocates and prospective residents have with the test. Some see it as an insufficient way of assessing someone’s candidacy for residence in Canada.
Language abilities ‘being called into question’
Ukwori Ejibe, now an Alberta-resident, moved to Canada from Nigeria in 2020. She holds an undergraduate degree from the U.S. and two master’s degrees — one from Paris and one from Singapore.
But before moving to Canada, she attempted the IELTS test twice in Nigeria, where English is the official language.
Language test scores are assigned a point value. Applicants also get points for things like education and work experience. The more points an applicant has, the greater their chances of becoming a permanent resident.
Ejibe’s first scores in 2016 were not high enough to gain permanent residency. After her second attempt, she was invited to immigrate.
She says she was “quite upset” to learn she’d have to take the test a third time to gain admission to the university program she wanted to attend in B.C.
“It’s definitely an expensive process to move to Canada, and one of the reasons why it’s so expensive is because the IELTS is not like other processes, that you, hopefully, just do once,” she said.
When Ejibe took the test for the third time, she said she didn’t prepare as much as she had before, but still got a great score.
“You feel like you’ve gone through all the hurdles and your English abilities are being called into question, and this is for someone who went to school in the U.S. and got educated in Nigeria in English.”
Concern about validity period
Syed Hussan, the executive director of the advocacy group Migrant Workers Alliance for Change, says most people they work with have difficulty passing the test on their first try, even if English is their first and only language.
“It is a massive money-making machine,” he said, noting the fact that the tests have a two-year expiry date before they have to be taken again makes it apparent that the exams are cash grabs.
“It just goes to show it’s just a way to get money out of people and not really assess people’s ability to work or live in Canada,” he said.
The application for permanent residency costs $1,365. Ejibe says she has spent roughly $1,000 on tests alone, and says they just add onto an already expensive process.
Unlike permanent resident applicants, those seeking citizenship don’t need to take the test again if they’ve passed it once. They can submit their test results even if they’ve expired.
Ejibe wonders about the rationale behind this.
“If they can do this for citizenship, they should consider it for immigration purposes, too,” she said.
Elena Ashford, an Ontario-based immigration lawyer, says these English language test scores play a significant role in a person’s eligibility to move to Canada and considers the cost of the tests to be an issue.
“Many individuals have to retake the test and that’s a lot of money. I don’t understand why the test expires within two years,” she said.
Maintaining proficiency ‘critical’: IRCC
British Council, the U.K.-based organization that offers IELTS, recommends test results remain valid for a period of two years. IRCC says it has followed this recommendation in its policy since it first began using third-party language testing.
IRCC said via email that the two-year validity period is meant to take into consideration factors like how often people actually speak the language they’re supposed to be proficient in, how recently they’ve had instruction in the language and if they’ve maintained their level of language proficiency.
“It is critical to ensure that their language proficiency does not deteriorate over time, prior to landing,” the email said.
In its emailed response, IRCC said language proficiency is strongly associated with positive economic outcomes and has been shown to have a direct impact on increased earnings and finding suitable employment.
But some still say the language tests aren’t a reliable indicator of how well a person will do after immigrating to Canada.
He says using the language tests to determine a person’s ability to thrive in a new country is baseless and thinks it would be better to update the assessment system entirely.
“If you’ve been working in Canada already, that should be proof enough, if you’ve been studying here, that should be proof enough.”
Demand created from a record influx of immigrants could be one factor keeping inflation higher for longer than anticipated, some economists say, though Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem doesn’t appear overly worried about it.
Sticky inflation prompted the Bank of Canada on July 12 to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to five per cent — the highest level since 2001. Though the inflation rate has fallen off its peak of 8.1 per cent last summer to 3.4 per cent in May, prices of more than half the goods in the consumer price index, such as meat, bread, coffee and rent, continue to rise, Macklem said in a press conference following the decision.
The central bank now expects inflation to reach its two per cent target by the middle of 2025, instead of the end of next year as predicted in April.
But even as prices for key goods go up, the economy is proving more resilient than expected and demand momentum and consumption growth has been “surprisingly strong,” the bank said in a statement, pushing it to once again hike rates last week.
An increase in immigration could be one complicating factor keeping inflation higher for longer and stoking demand, Bank of Nova Scotia economist Rebekah Young said.
“There is more risk that inflation may be sticky in months and quarters ahead, versus it coming down faster than we thought and newcomers are a part of that story,” she said. “They are certainly adding to what could be keeping (Macklem) up at night.”
Canada welcomed more than one million immigrants in the past year as the federal government sought to address high job vacancies and labour shortages. Young said the country has traditionally used population growth through immigration as a means to increase workers and enhance supply, especially as “massive surges” of inflation haven’t been something policymakers have worried about for decades. But things have gotten more complicated.
“A lot of things are different now,” she said. “The current juncture that we are in, getting inflation back to two per cent is still fraught with uncertainty.”
Macklem last week said he expects the net-impact of immigration growth on inflation to be “roughly neutral,” though he added it is impacting some parts of the economy more than others.
He said that while newcomers filling job vacancies has been good for company margins, easing inflationary pressures, new entrants are also increasing demand for housing, helping boost rent and home prices. It’s “hard to know exactly” the net effect on the economy, he added, but the main message is that immigration is adding to both demand and supply.
“If you start an economy with excess demand (and) you add both demand and supply, you are still in excess demand,” Macklem said. “What we’re seeing is that the excess demand in the economy is more persistent than we thought and so we’ve raised rates in June and July.”
Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said he agrees with Macklem’s assertion that high immigration adds to both demand and supply. But there’s another element the governor “didn’t talk about much,” he said, and that’s a matter of timing.
“(Strong population growth) does tend to affect things like spending and the housing demand almost instantaneously, whereas the supply side might take a little bit longer to kick in,” he said. “A new worker might enter the labour force relatively quickly, but reaching their full potential might take a little bit of time.”
In the short run, strong population growth tends to “push up the price pressures” a little bit, Porter said, but the impact in the longer run is “broadly neutral.”
Porter assessed economies of 20 nations to better understand the link between population growth and inflation and said he found a “very weak positive relationship.” Most of the impact is on the housing market, since there is a “very clear relationship between strong population growth and home prices,” he said.
Still, Porter also said Canada has fared better than most nations in terms of tackling inflation, meaning there are “larger forces at play here, beyond just population growth.”
Some asylum seekers were relocated Monday night, an advocate said.
Lorraine Lam, an outreach worker who has spoken out about the situation at 129 Peter St., said a “coalition of groups” worked to arrange a bus and space for individuals at temporary church shelters.
Some people went to the church while others chose to stay behind, Lam said.
The growing camp of refugee claimants and asylum seekers downtown is the result of a tug-of-war between all levels of government over who should foot the bill when it comes to housing refugees in Canada. A new city policy, which Deputy Mayor Jennifer McKelvie framed as a hard decision, means asylum seekers looking for emergency beds in the city’s non-refugee-specific shelters would be redirected to the federal government.
Mayor Olivia Chow said all hands on deck are required to solve the crisis.
“When senior staff meet on Tuesday, my expectation is tangible solutions from all three levels of government that we can implement right away,” Chow said on Monday.
On Monday morning, Paramount Fine Foods CEO Mohamad Fakih pledged to donate $20,000 and raise more money to pay for temporary housing.
There are “good people in the government. They want to do the right thing, but it’s taking long and they have to move,” Fakih said. “This is wrong on all of us and we have to change it.”
He’s asking other business leaders to open their hearts and their pockets if they are able to help.
One man who the Star agreed not to name has been at 129 Peter St. for 10 days. He said that while they are grateful to get food, what they really need is shelter.
“We have food in our own countries. But we came here because of security. And now security means that we have to have a place that is enclosed, where we put our heads (to rest),” the man said.
Meanwhile, 32 housing advocates and outreach workers sent an open letter to the head of Toronto’s shelter and housing system, Gord Tanner, calling for his resignation or for Chow to fire him over what they call “repeated mismanagement of the shelter system.”
While the collapse of the shelter system “is not solely the General Manager (of Toronto’s Shelter Support and Housing Administration) responsibility — it lies with City Council — your key decisions have resulted in immeasurable harm and have further exacerbated the crisis,” the letter states.
In a statement shared with the Star, city manager Paul Johnson acknowledged the letter, adding the voices of homeless, shelter and refugee advocates matter and they play a critical role in providing supports and advocacy work, as well as City staff.
“I have every confidence in the individual mentioned in the letter and in my team who has been working diligently and on an ongoing basis, in partnership with many other experts and community leaders, some of whom are signatories of the letter,” Johnson wrote.
Johnson said urgent funding is needed from other levels of government to support the surge of people arriving in Canada as the city grapples with a shelter system that does not have extra space or means to expand the shelter system to keep up with demand.
“A lot of political figures respond to public pressure and it’s not looking very good on them right now. So I would say that maybe that little bit of pressure might jog some more quick rapid-response movement,” Lam said.
Lam took to Twitter this weekend to encourage community members who want to help to be mindful of what they are donating.
“What we started to see over the weekend, for instance, was there was so much food because everybody wanted to bring food on the weekend and on Friday night, because that’s when people are free,” Lam said. The result was extra food being thrown away or sitting next to people as they tried to sleep.
Lam and fellow outreach worker Diana McNally have started a GoFundMe to go toward water, meals, and store gift cards as well as requested items like camping chairs and sleeping bags. The campaign has raised $59,985 as of Monday afternoon.
Brampton non-profit groups Help A Girl Out and Rescue the Youth were also in front of 129 Peter St. on Monday with pink drawstring bags full of soap, sanitizer, toothbrushes, wash clothes and sanitary pads.
“I can’t imagine having your period on the streets,” said Andria Barrett, chair of Help a Girl Out.
“Every non-profit, church, charity, mosque, religious institution needs to come together and donate — donate money, donate time, donate food, donate products. This is not how we need to be treating each other,” Barrett said, gesturing to the dozens of people sitting outside 129 Peter St. under tents with suitcases and garbage bags filled with belongings around them.
Don Mills resident Vickie Williams was rolling a suitcase around the site on Monday and told the Star she dropped off used jackets, a sleeping bag, new socks and other clothing she stayed up gathering until 3 a.m.
“What is going on is not right. Our government’s got to be the example. And as far as I can see, they are not the example. They need to smarten up. They need to treat everybody equally and fairly,” Williams said.
Odd report, at odds with most labour economists in terms of impact on per capita GDP:
At a time when skeptics are questioning Canada’s plan to ramp up immigration, a new report argues the country needs to welcome a lot more newcomers to counter-balance its aging demographic.
A Desjardins report released Monday analyzes how much population growth among working-age Canadians is necessary to maintain the old-age dependency ratio, which refers to the ratio between 15 to 64-year-olds and those aged 65 and older.
It finds that the working-age population would have to grow by 2.2 per cent per year through 2040 to maintain the same ratio that existed in 2022.
And if the country wanted to go back to the average old-age dependency ratio it had between 1990 and 2015, that group of Canadians would have to grow by 4.5 per cent annually.
“I feel like the discussion around immigration levels in Canada, by and large, focuses on the immediate impact on the Canadian housing market,” said Randall Bartlett, Desjardins’ senior director of Canadian economics.
“And so what I wanted to do was sort of zoom out and provide some broader economic context around immigration and why immigration to Canada is important.”
The prospective ramp-up of immigration levels has sparked debate on whether the country can handle higher flows of newcomers amid a housing crisis, and what the total economic impact of having more people in the country would be.
Canada’s population grew by more than one million people last year, a record for the country. Its total population grew by 2.7 per cent, the fastest rate since 1957.
The strong population growth comes as the Liberal government eyes higher annual immigration targets, which would see the country welcome 500,000 immigrants per year by 2025.
Proponents of higher immigration argue that the labour market is able to absorb more workers, and the country needs more working-age Canadians to support the tax base as more people retire.
“We need immigration at a relatively high rate, actually, in order to offset the economic impacts of aging — to be able to pay for the health care that Canadian seniors are going to need,” Bartlett said.
A recent Desjardins analysis finds Canada’s plan to increase immigration could boost gross domestic product per capita if newcomers continue to have the same success getting work that they’ve enjoyed recently.
GDP per capita is the size of a country’s economy divided by its population. Many consider it to be a better measure of a country’s living standards than the overall GDP figure.
The employment outcomes of recent immigrants, particularly those brought in through the economic stream, have improved compared to those of previous cohorts. That’s in part because of changes to federal immigration policy.
In 2018, the median wage of economic immigrant principal applicants surpassed that of the Canadian population by the time they had been in the country for one year, according to Statistics Canada.
“We’re bringing in very, very talented people,” Bartlett said. They are able to find jobs and “generate earnings very quickly that are outpacing the Canadian average,” he added.
But critics argue that relying on immigration to supply workers for the economy can also serve as a disincentive for businesses to invest in technology that would boost labour productivity and reduce dependency on workers.
Bartlett said the federal government could modulate the flow of temporary foreign workers so as to encourage such investments.
But he conceded that housing serves as a major hurdle.
Desjardins estimates the country would need to build 100,000 more units every year to offset upward price pressures caused by having a higher number of permanent residents in the country.
A recent analysis by BMO found that for every one per cent of population growth, housing prices typically increase by three per cent.
The influx of newcomers into the country is already having an effect on the housing market, which rebounded this year despite interest rates being at their highest level in decades.
At its last interest rate decision, the Bank of Canada flagged population growth’s effect on housing prices as one of the factors feeding into inflation.
“Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing,” the central bank said in a press release on its latest rate hike.
Bartlett warned the erosion of housing affordability amid record population growth could damage public support for immigration and warrants swift action from government.
“There’s a risk Canadians could become less open and less positive… toward immigration,” Bartlett said.
“If that leads to scaling back immigration in a meaningful way, then that means Canadians are gonna be facing a significant bill going forward to meet the the aging costs of older Canadians.”
Interesting take and further illustration of dysfunction (which largely works to Canada’s advantage):
To attract talented tech workers, Canada will soon offer 10,000 work permits to foreigners who are now in the United States on H-1B visas. This might be the first time any country has created an immigration program that hinges entirely on another country’s system.
This suggests that the Canadian government holds two opinions of U.S. H-1B visas: That they are good at attracting the world’s most talented immigrants. And that the ultimate value proposition to prospective immigrants is so weak long-term, that, given the option, many H-1B visa holders will head north to Canada.
The H-1B visa’s weakness lies in the way it is tied to employment. When jobs disappear, the workers have no path toward permanent residency. If they cannot find another H-1B job within 60 days, they have to leave the country.
Finding a job that can sponsor an H-1B visa within 60 days is not easy, even under normal circumstances. When U.S. companies laid off more than 310,000 workers in 2022 and 2023, it became harder still, especially for tech workers. Last November, Meta alone laid off 11,000 workers. More than 15 percent of Meta’s workers have H-1B visas.
About 50,000 people had their H-1B visas revoked due to loss of employmentbetween October 2022 and April 2023, according to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), and, among them, about 12,500 did not transfer their visas to some other legal status. In other words, they either left the United States or remained without documents.
This is a population of immigrants that the United States should want to keep. Most work in computer-related jobs. Others work in jobs that require specialized skills, such as doctors, professors, accountants and managers.
A bachelor’s degree or its equivalent is required to get an H-1B visa, making visa workers more educated than the U.S. population in general.
The exodus of H-1B workers did not start with the recent layoffs. Living as an H-1B worker has long been unstable and risky, especially for those born in India, who make up more than 70 percent of H-1B visa recipients everyyear. Because of America’s country-based green card quota system, Indians on H-1B visas have almostno path to permanent residency even after years of studying and workingin the United States. A change of president, an economic slowdown, or sudden layoffs can push them to abandon lives they have been building for years.
Both U.S. political parties have tried and failed to remove the country-based green card quota. As a short-term fix, many lawmakers and industry advocateshave urged the USCIS to extend the 60-day grace period after loss of employment to 120 days. But the agency says it would take more than a year to go through the required rulemaking process — too long to benefit immigrants who are already at risk of losing their legal status.
The Canadian government has been able to act faster. Indeed, it is already benefiting from U.S. visa restrictions. Since 2020, Vancouver and Toronto have seen the largest high-tech job growth in North America, outpacing Austin, Seattle and every other U.S. city. H-1B holders who move to Canada will receive open work permits for three years, allowing adequate time to find jobs without deportation worries. And rather than wait decades for a U.S. green card, skilled workers can get permanent residency in Canada in less than a year. Canada will also issue open work permits to spouses of H-1B workers; in the United States, only spouses of those who have an approved green card application are allowed to work.
The Biden administration launched a directive last year aimed at attracting immigrants trained in STEM fields: science, technology, engineering and mathematics. But the H-1B system is holding the United States back. The loss of H-1B workers to Canada this year might not hurt the U.S. economy too much on its own, but if the immigration system for skilled workers is not fixed, the damage will accumulate and set back U.S. innovation for years to come.
Longer-term perspective given effects of climate change and increased migration pressures, with need for more analysis and preparation:
IIs étaient cinq cents, désespérés de rejoindre un monde meilleur par quelque moyen que ce soit. Mais le bateau qui devait les y transporter a sombré le mois dernier dans la mer Méditerranée, comme de trop nombreux autres avant lui, les laissant tous présumés disparus, possiblement par la faute de la garde côtière grecque, qui ne voulait pas d’eux, est venu révéler le Guardian. De telles tragédies se multiplient. Le taux de migration mondiale est voué à s’accroître lui aussi. Au même moment, de plus en plus de pays, voyant arriver ce flux migratoire, resserrent leurs frontières. L’incohérence est intenable et elle le demeurera.
Les dernières années ont été celles de tous les records. Plus de 108 millions de déplacés dans le monde, ce qui correspond à la plus forte hausse annuelle jamais enregistrée, nous dit le Haut-Commissariat des Nations unies pour les réfugiés. La guerre en Ukraine y a contribué (de l’ordre du tiers des 19 millions de déplacés de plus qu’en 2021), mais pas que. Les catastrophes naturelles — celles-là mêmes qui ne feront que s’amplifier — ont été responsables de plus de la moitié des déplacements internes au sein des pays frappés.
Le monde a également été le théâtre d’un nombre exceptionnel de conflits (56 en 2020), du jamais vu depuis le début des années 1990. Il ne faut pas se leurrer, ces multiples causes de migration ne feront que se perpétuer.
À ces migrants qui fuient la guerre, la persécution ou les bouleversements de la crise climatique s’ajoutent ceux qui partent en quête de perspectives économiques. Tant que des pays en manque de main-d’oeuvre leur offriront des emplois dont leurs natifs ne veulent pas (en agriculture, en restauration, en soins de santé — on peut penser aux « anges gardiens » de la pandémie), ces migrants continueront de prendre la route. Qu’on tente de la leur barrer ou non.
En Europe comme en Amérique du Nord, la tendance est à la sécurisation de la migration, et ce, par la voie d’une militarisation des interventions, du recours à la détention, de la construction de clôtures sur terre ou en mer. Les budgets de sécurité ont explosé, sans que cela freine les arrivées. Au contraire, les migrants prennent simplement des routes plus dangereuses, comme en témoignent les tragiques naufrages à répétition en Méditerranée ou la mort effroyable de migrants en pleine forêt le long de la frontière canado-américaine. Ce qui « subventionne » au passage une industrie criminelle de trafic de personnes chiffrée à 13 milliards de dollars américains l’an dernier, selon la professeure et chercheuse de l’Université de Montréal Luna Vives Gonzales.
Les déplacements ne sont bien sûr pas tous internationaux. Bien des gens tentent de trouver une vie meilleure dans une ville de proximité. Ainsi, 76 % des déplacés se sont réinstallés dans des pays à faibles ou moyens revenus l’an dernier. Des États qui n’ont souvent pas les infrastructures ni les services nécessaires pour gérer cette explosion imprévue de leur population, ce qui vient exacerber les tensions. L’iniquité avec les pays riches, qui, eux, en auraient davantage les moyens, est frappante.
L’immigration toujours croissante puise toutefois elle aussi dans ces pays des ressources, des logements ou des services, éléments qui pourraient ainsi ne pas suffire à la demande, préviennent des projections démographiques.
Ce qui inquiète les gouvernements. Et la réticence de la population locale à l’accueil d’un nombre plus généreux de migrants vient conforter ces dirigeants. Ce repli sur soi se voit surtout à droite, voire à l’extrême droite, mais la gauche est elle aussi divisée, comme en témoignent les débats internes au sein du Parti démocrate américain. Le climat actuel n’est donc pas passager. La vague migratoire ne l’est cependant pas elle non plus.
L’année 2022 devrait servir autant d’avertissement que d’exemple aux pays de la planète. Aux records migratoires s’adjoint celui des enveloppes internationales d’aide au développement, qui ont également atteint des sommets (204 milliards de dollars américains à l’échelle mondiale, une hausse de 14 %, et la quatrième d’affilée). Là encore, le soutien de nombreux pays à l’Ukraine est venu gonfler les chiffres.
La guerre dans ce pays aura montré que les pays riches sont en mesure d’adapter en temps de crise leurs seuils d’accueil et leurs budgets d’aide aux États moins nantis. Qu’est-ce qui les empêche de récidiver ? Car la solution, pour la suite, devra passer par l’un ou par l’autre.
Les migrants de demain ne se résigneront pas à rester, faute d’invitation à trouver refuge ailleurs, dans une zone de conflit ou sur une terre asséchée. Les pays de la planète (les plus riches, avant tout) devront les accueillir ou alors investir dans l’adaptation climatique, la gouvernance et la stabilité économique afin de les aider à demeurer chez eux ou non loin de leur région.
Le statu quo est impossible et nous mène droit vers un mur. Seule une migration ordonnée permettra à ces déplacés de trouver une vie meilleure en toute sécurité, mais aussi, et surtout, aux gouvernements qui les accueillent de mieux gérer leur intégration et leur arrivée.
Over focus on the challenge to settlement agencies compared to the real physical and workforce challenges in housing, healthcare and infrastructure. Settlement service stats have been largely flat compared to the pre-pandemic period, suggesting less demand than stated:
There’s a long list of reasons for Canada to open its arms to newcomers from around the world – but when you invite half a million new people to the country every year, you better be prepared. And it’s looking more and more like we’re not.
It goes beyond the affordable-housing crunch and whether everyone will have access to primary health care. Now, some of the Calgary agencies that help people get settled in the country say uncertainty about funding from the federal government is leading to long waiting lists and layoffs.
“It’s always been a challenge, but I’ve never seen it like this. Never,” said Shirley Philips, interim chief executive at Immigrant Services Calgary, who has decades of experience in the sector.
ISC said they will receive less money from Ottawa – which makes up the majority of their funding – this fiscal year than last year. Contract updates from the federal government don’t reflect increased demand even as Alberta’s largest city grows by leaps and bounds, and so job vacancies won’t be filled.
Newcomers are already facing a 55-day wait to get a language proficiency assessment done, Ms. Philips said. And then four to six months to get into English classes after that. As demand continues to grow, she fears those wait times will stretch longer.
“You’ve got this talent pool that Canada says they want in their country, but we’re doing very little even at the basic level of language, employment services and housing.”
Another agency, the Centre for Newcomers, has laid off about 65 people – almost a quarter of its staff – in recent weeks. Chief program officer Kelly Ernst said the issue is a delay in contract updates with the federal government, which would provide a flow of money based on higher demand. He’s worried about some people falling through the cracks, as was the case for a newly arrived Ukrainian family he said his agency found living on the streets of Calgary last week.
“We served over 35,000 people last year, and if this continues, we’re going to break that record again this year,” Mr. Ernst said.
For its part, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada said planned investment for settlement services in Alberta is increasing by 6 per cent this year, to nearly $133-million.
“These investments align with Alberta’s proportion of all permanent resident landings,” the federal department said in a statement to The Globe and Mail.
IRCC did not comment on the situation for individual agencies, but added it has “in the past, adjusted investments over the course of the year to respond to pressures, such as an influx of newcomers, and when additional funding becomes available.”
Overall, the department’s budget is being reduced beginning this fiscal year. Temporary programs are being wound down, including the commitment to resettle at least 40,000 Afghans by the end of this year, and provisions for Ukrainians making their way to Canada.
The problem is, settlement agencies say, Afghans and Ukrainians are still coming and they still need help getting acclimatized in Canada – as do many more from all around the world.
The numbers are huge. The federal government is aiming to welcome between 410,000 and 505,000 new permanent residents this year, between 430,000 and 542,500 in 2024, and between 442,500 and 550,000 in 2025. Canada is well on its way to reaching – or exceeding – those ambitious goals, with Statistics Canada saying the country welcomed 145,417 immigrants in the first quarter of 2023, the highest number for any quarter on record. (There was also a net gain of 155,300 non-permanent residents in the first quarter.)
It’s unclear whether Calgary immigration agencies are alone in their struggle for federal funding. Edmonton MP and cabinet minister Randy Boissonnault said he’s not hearing the same concerns in Alberta’s capital.
On a percentage basis, the Alberta population is growing at a rate not seen for more than a century – back to a time when prairie sod houses were a perfectly acceptable form of housing. The provincial population has increased by 200,000 in the past 12 months, standing at more than 4.7 million. The numbers are surging in part because of interprovincial migration, but mostly as a result of new arrivals from outside of Canada.
Another factor that might not be fully quantified is that many immigrants land in Ontario or Quebec, and then make their way to Alberta – often Calgary – when they find out housing is less expensive and there’s plentiful work. This “secondary migration” might not be reflected in federal funding to settlement agencies, their leaders say.
Canada is built on immigration. There is a moral imperative for the country to help those whose lives have been torn apart by war or deeply regressive governments. Climate change is likely to force the movement of millions more.
There are also economic reasons to welcome immigrants. The country badly needs workers – everyone from medical professionals to home builders to child care providers. Canada also needs younger workers, as the country’s population grows greyer.
“We actually need a million people a year. But that would definitely crack the system,” Mr. Boissonnault said.
Calgary immigration agencies are looking to increase their budgets through private donations. And the Alberta government said in its budget that it would provide an extra $7-million over three years for settlement and language supports, on top of some regular funding. That money will start to flow by year’s end.
It all might not be fast enough. It’s already a struggle to provide affordable housing for everyone. The Bank of Canada acknowledged this as it hiked interest rates again this week, in part in another desperate attempt to dampen what appears insatiable demand for real estate in the country.
And beyond finding everyone a place to live, not having basic settlement services in place to help people as they arrive on this scale is indefensible. The soaring political messaging from Ottawa on immigration needs to come with solid support for the agencies doing the on-the-ground work.
Starting with the overall picture and good commentary on the negative impact on productivity by Rupa Banergee:
Canadian companies are ramping up their recruitment of foreign workers to fill a variety of low-wage roles in the service sector, including cooks, cleaners and retail clerks.
In the first quarter, employers were approved to fill about 22,000 positions through the low-wage stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program, an increase of roughly 275 per cent from four years earlier, according to figures recently published by Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC).
From January through March, employers were approved to hire more than 2,800 cooks, making it the most sought-after role in the low-wage stream. Companies were seeking thousands of other workers for the food-service sector, such as cashiers. Construction labourers and nurse aides were also in high demand.
To hire a TFW, companies must submit a Labour Market Impact Assessment to the government, showing they can’t find local workers to fill vacant positions. If those roles are approved, foreign workers must obtain the appropriate permits to begin their employment. The ESDC numbers reflect the first part of this hiring process.
The figures are even higher than presented: ESDC excludes some employers – such as business names that include personal names – from its data set of approvals by company.
Regardless, the figures show a dramatic rise in demand for TFWs.
Not only have employers faced historically tight labour markets in recent years, but the federal government has made it easier to hire through the program. Ottawa overhauled the TFW program last year, with some moves allowing employers to hire a greater proportion of their staff through the low-wage stream.
While these changes were cheered by business lobby groups, they were also criticized by migration experts.
The TFW program “disincentivizes employers from making the effort to reach out to underutilized segments of the labour market, and also to improve wages and working conditions,” said Rupa Banerjee, a Canada Research Chair in immigration and economics at Toronto Metropolitan University.
Instead, the TFW program provides employers with a “cheap, flexible and frankly vulnerable source of labour to fill gaps in the labour market,” she said.
Recent program announcements highlight the difficulties for the government in having coherent immigration policies. The recent removal of education requirements for Hong Kongers undermines skill levels and productivity, along with demographics given that the change will result in a shift towards older immigrants.
This is not to discount the very real humanitarian objectives behind these two programs, or the political pressure behind most, but to note the overall incoherence:
Vancouver resident Calvin Wong says he can finally start picturing a future in Canada after the federal government announced it was dropping educational requirements for Hong Kongers seeking permanent residency in the wake of the Chinese city’s crackdown on dissent.
Wong, 28, had graduated from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology with a computer science degree in 2017 before moving to Canada on a work permit in 2021, looking for a life where he could enjoy “political freedom.”
But immigration pathways for Hong Kong residents that have allowed thousands to settle permanently in Canada excluded Wong because it has been more than five years since he graduated.
That will change from August 15, after Ottawa announced on Tuesday it would remove all educational requirements for people with at least a year of work experience in Canada.
Immigration consultants say the move effectively opens pathways for Hong Kongers of all ages, instead of the current focus on students and recent graduates. They said they had been flooded with inquiries since the announcement.
“It’s a very great move by the Canadian government and I can eventually get permanent residence here, contribute and live in Canada safely,” said Wong, his voice breaking with emotion.
The store clerk said the chance to secure permanent residency came as a “huge relief,” and his decision to move to Canada was something he would “never regret.”
In 2021, the federal government created two immigration pathways for Hong Kong residents who had either worked or studied in Canada.
The pathways were in response to a crackdown on political dissent after protests drew millions onto Hong Kong’s streets in 2019, followed by the introduction of a harsh new national security law in 2020.
Stream A applies to former Hong Kong residents who graduated from a post-secondary institution in Canada within three years. People with at least one year of work experience in Canada who graduated from a foreign or Canadian institution within five years could apply for Stream B.
The changes open up Stream B to anyone with a year of work experience in Canada, regardless of education.
Sean Fraser, minister of immigration, refugees and citizenship, said the change was a “win-win situation.”
“(It) means that we can welcome more Hong Kongers to Canada who need our support, while simultaneously helping Canadian businesses fill labour gaps with workers who already have work experience here,” he said in a statement.
The announcement by Fraser’s ministry said Canada “continues to stand by Hong Kong residents, and supports their freedom and democracy.”
Canada has welcomed 3,122 permanent residents under the two pathways as of April 30, 2023.
Wong said that being excluded under the current rules had left him depressed.
“I felt it was really difficult to plan my future at that time. I was thinking: where should I go? Should I try my best to stay in Canada or go to the United Kingdom?” said Wong.
Wong said he can now make plans for the future and would submit his immigration application as soon as he completes his one year of work experience in Canada.
Vancouver-based Immigration consultant Peter Pang said the move is a “huge change,” opening up more opportunities to Hong Kongers to contribute to Canada.
Richmond, B.C., immigration consultant Ken Tin Lok Wong said that while the current rules do not ban older people, the time limits since graduation had effectively set a bar.
To have graduated in the past five years generally meant applicants to Stream B were not particularly old, and were “of working age,” he said.
Wong said he had some clients who were ready to pack their bags and leave Canada. But they now felt like they had “hit the jackpot.”“The announcement feels like Canada is helping to retain Hong Kongers regardless of their education,” he said.
“So, if you happen to be a legal worker in Canada, if you happen to obtain one year of work experience, then you are through.”
Similarly, hard to see how the new pathway for Ukrainians will contribute to productivity or demographics:
The federal government has launched a new immigration program for Ukrainians fleeing their embattled country, allowing those in Canada with family to receive permanent resident status.
“We continue to extend unwavering support and a lifeline to families separated by this conflict, including through this family reunification pathway that will help Ukrainian families stay together as they rebuild their lives in their new communities in Canada,” said Immigration Minister Sean Fraser in a statement released Saturday.
Eligibility will be extended to Ukrainians living in Canada with temporary status and with one or more family members in Canada.
The government said more details will be released closer to when the program launches on Oct. 23, 2023. The program will have no cost attached to it and will be in place for one year.
The announcement Saturday comes on the day the government’s initial emergency immigration program was set to expire.
Under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel (CUAET), launched in March 2022, Ukrainians were able to come to Canada and live and work for up to three years. They benefited from a variety of measures meant to speed up the visa process, including prioritized processing and waived fees.
Roughly 166,000 Ukrainians have come to Canada through the special visa program. That’s about 21 per cent of the 800,000 emergency visas granted, from around 1.1 million applications, according to the government.
‘We’re just asking for lots of flexibility’
In an interview Saturday, the head of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress said the details to come would be key to their response to the program. But in general, he said his organization is pushing for more options for Ukrainians coming to Canada.
“We’re just asking for lots of flexibility on the pathways for people as they make their way through what is a very uncertain situation,” said Ihor Michalchyshyn, the UCC’s CEO.
“The war has not ended, we have to keep options open for people.”
One key unknown was what set of questions the government would be using to determine eligibility and approvals throughout the process, he noted.
Ukrainians approved under the CUAET will still be able to travel to Canada up until March 31 of next year. Afterward, they will be subject to the standard immigration measures available to others around the world.
“Once in Canada, temporary residents will be eligible to apply for an extended stay of up to three years through study permits and open work permits, all of which will be prioritized. They will also have access to settlement services, such as language training and employment services. These measures will help them thrive in communities across the country,” the government release said.
Canada has the largest diaspora of Ukrainians outside of Ukraine and Russia, with over 1.4 million people of Ukrainian descent living here, according to government statistics.
Michalchyshyn said while immigration programs and settlement services are important for people coming to this country, the priority push from his organization is still aid to Ukraine itself.
“The sooner that Ukraine wins the war, the sooner peace and normality can resume and this massive refugee crisis will come to an end.”
