Earnings of one-step and two-step economic immigrants: Comparisons from the arrival year – Statistique Canada

2024/01/26 Leave a comment

Another useful study, highlighting that two-step immigrants had better economic outcomes (annual earnings) than one-step immigrants:

Since the early 2000s, the two-step immigration selection process, through which economic immigrants are chosen from the pool of temporary foreign workers, has expanded rapidly. Previous research indicated that following their landing, high-skilled two-step immigrants had higher earnings than comparable one-step immigrants—those directly selected from abroad. However, an important question that has not been fully examined is whether the earnings advantage of two-step immigrants over one-step immigrants persisted if the two groups were compared from their arrival year rather than the year when they became permanent residents. At that point, neither group possessed any Canadian work experience, eliminating its potential influence on their earnings differences. The results of this study reveal that two-step immigrants consistently had higher annual earnings than their one-step counterparts within the same admission class when the comparison started from their initial arrival year. These earnings differences, although reduced, remained substantial after accounting for sociodemographic differences between the two groups and after 10 years following the initial arrival. Furthermore, these patterns generally held across successive arrival cohorts. The conclusion includes a discussion of the implications of these findings and explores potential reasons for these outcomes.

Source: Earnings of one-step and two-step economic immigrants: Comparisons from the arrival year – Statistique Canada

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Apportionment & Immigration: 95 Percent of Noncitizen Growth Went to GOP States Since 2019 – Cato Institute

2024/01/26 Leave a comment

Of interest:

In response to a question about restricting immigration, House Representative Yvette D. Clarke (D‑NY) recently stated, “I need more people in my district just for redistricting purposes.” When a Republican member of Congress askedwhether this was the motivation for other Democrats, including President Biden, to oppose more extreme asylum restrictions during a committee hearing at which I testifiedlast week, former head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement Tom Homan stated:

I certainly believe it’s probably associated with the decision to overturn the Trump Census rule, so now [immigrants] will be mandated to be counted in the Census. When we reapportionate [sic] seats, it’s going to have an effect.

Although former President Trump did attempt to exclude some noncitizens from the Census count and from House apportionment, multiple courts foundthose efforts to be illegal and unconstitutional. The Constitution is clear: “Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state.” But does this provision of the Constitution—whatever its merits—give Republicans a good reason to oppose immigration?

No, the data are equally clear: recent immigration trends are benefiting Republicans in states where they control the legislature and manage redistricting. About 62 percent of the three‐​million increase in the total immigrant population from March 2019 to March 2023 has occurred in GOP states, according to the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

The American Community Survey (with a larger sample size but slightly older data) attributes 60 percent of the growth in the immigrant population to GOP states from July 2019 to July 2022. These percentages are also similar for the Latin American immigrant population growth.

What about noncitizens who might be excluded by a US citizen‐​only census? For them, an overwhelming 95 percent of the increase in the noncitizen population has been in GOP states from March 2019 to March 2023. Eliminating the growth in the noncitizen population from 2019 to 2023 would have cost Republican states 1.2 million people, or about two seats in Congress (the average congressional district has 760,367 people). Figure 1 shows the net increase in immigrant populations for states under GOP and Democratic control.

Table 1 shows the full data from the Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement for March 2023 and March 2019. The Republican state leading this trend is Texas, which netted 515,970 noncitizens and 833,028 immigrants overall. Other Republican states experiencing significant growth in their immigrant populations include Kentucky (130,061 noncitizens and 146,790 immigrants), South Carolina (102,096 and 157,396), and Florida (102,055 and 178,052). It is certainly likely that these states are attracting immigrants because of their strong job growth.

The argument that recent immigration is boosting Democratic representation in Congress is unsubstantiated. In 2015, I rebutted this same claim about recent illegal immigration. I noted, “Illegal immigration from 2000 to 2010 netted the Republicans about six seats in redistricting. Democrats managed only about 4.5, giving the Republican states yet again more than a seat advantage.” Clearly, immigration has not helped Democrats in terms of apportionment for decades. Yet, this misconception has become so entrenched that the former president tried to unconstitutionally exclude some noncitizens from the Census count.

I have also explained how it is false that Republicans fare poorly during periods when the immigrant share of the population is high. Republicans have controlled at least one chamber of Congress 85 percent of the years when the immigrant share of the population exceeded 10 percent, while not controlling either chamber 83 percent of all other years. This is a staggering disparity that has been completely overlooked in current political discourse. Republicans should not fear immigration based on unfounded political concerns.

Source: Apportionment & Immigration: 95 Percent of Noncitizen Growth Went to GOP States Since 2019 – Cato Institute

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HESA: What Comes Next: Ontario (the hugely problematic provinces) [international student caps]

2024/01/25 Leave a comment

The insightful Alex Usher on the impact of provinces, with Ontario the focus:

Ontario is, not to put too fine a point on it, a shit show. My impression is that the Ford government, which has been throwing gasoline on the international student fire ever since it got into the office, mainly so it could avoid having to actually spend over its own money on post-secondary education, is in no way equipped policy-wise to deal with the mess it has just been handed.

The first policy question to be answered before getting to the issue of caps is: what the heck to do about the public-private partnership colleges currently strewn around the GTA? As it is, with the graduates denied access to the post-graduate work visa program, it will be difficult for any of them to stay in business, since satisfying this demand is largely their reason for being. That would be brutal on a couple of levels: first on the colleges themselves who would have to teach out their existing students with essentially no money coming in, and second on their parent public colleges who rely on the margin between per-student tuition and per-student payments to the PPPs in order to keep operating under a system in which per-student funding is just 44% of what it is in the other nine provinces.

At least conceptually, there’s another option: What if the public colleges bought out their private partners and operated these institutions directly? The province might well say no—college catchment areas in theory have meaning, and this kind of arrangement would undermine those catchment areas (which is precisely why they all went in the PPP direction in the first place). And net surpluses would be lower if all the staff at these colleges suddenly joined the college unions. It might not be a super-lucrative prospect, but it might be better than the alternative. I could see some institutions trying it.

But being able to make that decision requires you to know what provincial funding is going to look like. If the province comes in with a bailout package—particularly for northern colleges—then the need to keep pushing on those GTA campuses might be lessened. Alternatively, many of those PPP colleges may now move more quickly towards seeking their own degree-granting status through the Post-secondary Education Quality Assessment Board (PEQAB) and start offering their own degree-level programs, escaping the problems created by Monday’s announcement.

(You see how many moving pieces there are here? It’s going to be wild to watch this all work out.).

Only once you work out the PPP piece can you sensibly make decisions about the rest of the system. If the baseline numbers include the PPPs, then everyone is going to take a big hit on their numbers. If the baseline excludes the PPPs, then the hit to the rest of the system will be greatly alleviated. How that gets distributed across the system is still the big unknown. Will it be done equally across all institutions? Will there be a steer to the colleges rather than universities, or vice-versa? How will stand-alone private institutions be treated (Northeastern is the big one to think about in this category). We have no idea. It’s all an enormous mystery. And with a moratorium on visa processing until the provinces figure all this stuff out, there are a lot of very anxious international student divisions out there.

Source: What Comes Next

Reading this article in the Globe, appears British Columbia more advanced in its thinking and planing.

British Columbia and Ontario are planning to crack down on “bad actor” private colleges that they say take advantage of international students, after Ottawa announced a plan to cap foreign study visas for two years.

Source: B.C., Ontario planning crackdown on ‘bad actor’ colleges preying on international students

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Star editorial: Necessary reforms on international students and CILA statement

2024/01/25 Leave a comment

Even the Star supports these restrictions:

After weeks of foreshadowing, the federal government moved this week to cap the number of international student visas over the next two years. File this policy change in the “better late than never” category.

The number of international students flowing to this country has grown by such epic proportions it is difficult to reach any conclusion other than the federal Liberals were simply sleeping on this file. There have been no shortage of red flags, from Statistics Canada reports warning of the strain on affordable housingand access to social services to provincial auditors warning of an unhealthy dependence on international student fees by post-secondary institutions which are being underfunded.

Over the past two years, the number of international students in this country jumped from 617,000 to more than a million. About a third are in public universities but the overwhelming majority are in public colleges or private schools, often offering substandard education and a backdoor route to permanent status in this country. Immigration Minister Marc Miller, in announcing he is cutting the number of study permits by 35 per cent to 364,000 this year, is right to target the shady operators who are preying on international students and not doctoral and postgraduate international students at public universities. Miller says hundreds of the private schools should be shut down.

“It is not the intention of this program to have sham commerce degrees and business degrees that are sitting on top of a massage parlour,” Miller said in making his announcement.

There are a number of threads to unravel from this announcement. First and foremost, as the minister stressed, this is not an indictment of foreign students. They are hardly responsible for a housing crunch or fears over access to stretched social services. International students were more likely the victims, living in crowded, substandard housing, dealing with a much more expensive country that they had anticipated and receiving diplomas which Miller says were being churned out like “puppy mills.” It was creating reputational damage to this country.

But these students would not be in this country without federal approval, so Miller is correcting a problem that his government largely created. According to a memo obtained by The Canadian Press, the Trudeau government was warned in 2022 that there was a widening gap between immigration and housing supply, largely driven by the increasing number of international students and temporary foreign workers admitted to this country.

This cap will be most acutely felt in Ontario, home to 51 per cent of international students. The Doug Ford government has twice been warned about a reliance on international student tuition fees, once in November by his own panel on colleges and universities, and in 2021 by the auditor-general who warned him not to increase a dependency on foreign student fees without a post-secondary education plan in place. The panel reported in November that the Progressive Conservatives had the lowest per student post-secondary funding in the country following a tuition cut and freeze that meant colleges and universities had reached the point at which revenue from international student tuition fees was “fundamental to the sector’s financial sustainability.” Now Ford is forced into some tough decisions. He will have to decide what schools can bring in international students and what schools should be eliminated, while protecting universities in financial trouble.

Finally, the Liberals – and all governments at all levels – must handle matters of immigration, including temporary foreign workers and international students, with utmost delicacy. To their credit, Canadians have held together on a consensus on the accommodation of immigrants. And to their credit, Canadian politicians have largely resisted any base urge to exploit frustration and anxiety in this country by playing the immigration card.

But the numbers are increasing. Some 500,000 immigrants will arrive next year and this country is going through a population boom during challenging economic times. Immigration will dominate much of the upcoming U.S. presidential election and delicacy is not a feature of debate to the south, particularly from Republicans.

It would not take much to bust that Canadian consensus. We trust our politicians to be vigilant on that score.

Source: Necessary reforms on international students

Sensible recommendations in CILA’s statement on Canada’s international student caps

CILA wishes to use this opportunity to highlight other means to better protect international students and promote the integrity of our higher education and immigration systems:

  • Federal and provincial governments must work together to identify how to fund our higher education system in a more sustainable fashion so that colleges and universities are not so reliant on international students to fund their operations.
  • The federal government needs to set more realistic expectations to international students about the feasibility of obtaining permanent residence following graduation. The federal government, in concert with colleges, universities, and immigration consultants continue to tout Canada’s TR to PR pathways, when the reality is attaining PR is a very competitive process that is far from a foregone conclusion.
  • IRCC may wish to consider increasing the English- and French-language proficiency requirements so that approved international students are better equipped to succeed in Canadian classrooms, the economy, and society.
  • Re-introduce the Post-Graduation Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) to international graduates so that employers with genuine labour shortages can obtain work permits for international graduates with in-demand skills. This can also help such international graduates improve their odds of transitioning to PR.
  • Better regulate the conduct of immigration consultants in Canada and overseas to deter them from engaging in unethical behavior or with unauthorized agents that exploit international students.

CILA acknowledges the significant growth in Canada’s international student population has created significant integrity challenges and believes it is incumbent on governments across Canada to do more to provide both Canadian and international students with a better experience. CILA hopes such efforts will lead to a more sustainable path forward for Canada’s international student program. International students enrich Canada in many ways and are key to our global competitiveness. As such, it is imperative Canada get its international student program back on track so we can sustain the economic and social benefits that international students bring for many decades to come.

Source: Source: CILA’s statement on Canada’s international student caps

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Transition to permanent residency and retention of temporary foreign workers in accommodation and food services and food manufacturing

2024/01/25 Leave a comment

Of note, clear difference between lower and higher skilled:

Temporary foreign workers with lower-skill occupations transition to permanent residency at a lower rate than those with higher-skill occupations and study permit holders in the accommodation and food services industry 

The study “Temporary foreign workers with lower-skill occupations in the accommodation and food services industry: Transition to permanent residency and industrial retention after transition” found that 29% of TFWs with lower-skill occupations who entered the accommodation and food services industry from 2010 to 2014 became permanent residents by their fifth year working in the industry. The rates were higher for TFWs with higher-skill occupations (45%) and study permit holders (49%). However, because of their large population size, the number of TFWs with lower-skill occupations who became immigrants was larger than that of TFWs with higher-skill occupations.

Overall, five years after immigration, nearly 40% of TFWs with lower-skill occupations who became permanent residents from 2011 to 2015 stayed in the accommodation and food services industry. By comparison, the rate was higher among TFWs with higher-skill occupations (52%) but lower for study permit holders (16%).

Retention in the food manufacturing industry decreases for temporary foreign workers with lower-skill occupations 

The study “Temporary foreign workers with lower-skill occupations in the food manufacturing industry: Transition to permanent residency and industrial retention after transition” found that five years after starting to work in the food manufacturing industry, TFWs with lower-skill occupations who arrived in Canada from 2010 to 2014 displayed lower cumulative rates of transition to permanent residency (39%) than TFWs with higher-skill occupations (48%).

The percentage of TFWs who stayed in the food manufacturing industry fell gradually over the first five years after immigration. Among TFWs with lower-skill occupations who became permanent residents from 2011 to 2015, the retention rate decreased from 73% in the year of immigration to 36% five years later. The degree of retention of TFWs with lower-skill occupations fell with each successive landing cohort. One year after becoming permanent residents, the percentage of TFWswho stayed in the industry decreased from 69% for the 2006-to-2010 landing cohort to 57% for the 2016-to-2019 landing cohort. 

Source: Transition to permanent residency and retention of temporary foreign workers in accommodation and food services and food manufacturing

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Keller: Thanks to Marc Miller, the immigration system is (slightly) less broken, Clark: Ottawa finally acts on international student visas, setting a challenge for Doug Ford

2024/01/24 Leave a comment

Two of the better assessments:

Every journey begins with a first step. The Trudeau government has finally taken a step toward fixing what it broke in Canada’s immigration system. This is not the end of the trip, not even close. But it’s a start.

Ottawa didn’t do the breaking on its own. The provinces helped. So did business.

…Mr. Miller has finally taken a first step to repairing the immigration system. All he has to do now is keep walking.

Source: Thanks to Marc Miller, the immigration system is (slightly) less broken

Still, Mr. Ford faces a challenge now. The days of unlimited student visas are numbered, so his government has to decide which schools will get them. Will they prioritize top-notch talent, or keep business going for a low-standard industry?

Of course, Ontario’s failing shouldn’t let the federal Liberals off the hook. They were asleep while the number of temporary residents ballooned. It took ages for the Liberals to even see that massive policy failure while the damaging consequences were piling up on so many ordinary folks.

Finally, albeit belatedly, Mr. Miller has acted. Over to you, Mr. Ford.

Source: Ottawa finally acts on international student visas, setting a challenge for Doug Ford

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The Economist: Germany strikes a brave new deal on immigration

2024/01/24 Leave a comment

Significant change:

Germany’s debate over migration sometimes seems divorced from reality. The country’s low birth rate and shrinking workforce imply a pressing need to import manpower. Much political talk, however, is concerned with how to keep immigrants away. The anti-immigration right is surging in opinion polls, and even otherwise liberal folk are increasingly prone to saying that “certain kinds” of immigrants are alien to the national Leitkultur, a fuzzy concept of Germanness.

Yet the past week has seen a turn. Earlier this month German media exposed the proceedings of a private conclave of hard-right politicians at a posh hotel near Berlin in November, where the participants discussed expelling millions of aliens. That scandal woke up the dormant left, which has organised a series of big “anti-fascist” demonstrations in cities across the country. On January 20th some 250,000 Germans took to the streets in one of their biggest mass protests this century.

Meanwhile, the governing centre-left coalition, made up of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats, has injected some good sense into the immigration debate. On January 18th and 19th it passed two immigration bills in the Bundestag. The first, pleasing to conservatives, will make it easier to expel asylum-seekers with dubious cases, whose numbers have soared since the end of the pandemic. The second, more significant law will make it easier for legitimate immigrants to gain German nationality.

The reasons for the latter law are obvious, though German media has devoted strangely little space to discussing them. An extraordinary 13.4m of Germany’s 84m residents do not hold citizenship. More than 5m of these have lived in the country longer than ten years. In some cities the proportion is far higher: 45% of the population of Offenbach, a big satellite of Frankfurt, are foreigners, as well as a third of Munich’s and a quarter of Berlin’s. This number has swollen rapidly in the past decade, partly because more immigrants have arrived, but also because Germany has failed to naturalise those already here.

Germany’s “naturalisation rate”—the percentage of resident foreigners granted nationality every year—was just 1.2% in 2021, well behind the European average of 2.2%. Sweden did far better at 10%. The number Germany naturalised rose from 130,000 in 2021 to 168,000 in 2022, the highest in two decades. But the backlog still grew, because of a range of obstacles: restrictions on dual nationality, long residency requirements, tough tests to prove language skills and gainful employment, and a clogged bureaucracy.

On average, Turkish immigrants who acquire German citizenship have already been in the country for 24 years. Small wonder that nearly half of Germany’s 3m immigrants of Turkish background—the largest immigrant group—remain non-citizens. Their case is special. Among the hundreds of thousands of Turkish Gastarbeiter (guest workers) who arrived in the 1960s and 1970s, many assumed they would return to Turkey and so did not apply to become German. Yet with hard-right pundits wagging fingers at the alleged failure of Turkish immigrants to integrate, Germany’s failure to welcome them deserved scrutiny too.

The new law should help address the citizenship backlog. It shortens the residency requirement for most applicants from eight to five years, which is in line with other countries that compete with Germany to attract talent, such as France and America. In special cases the wait can now be as short as three years. Children who are born in Germany with at least one parent who has lived in Germany for five years will automatically become citizens. Dual citizenship is now generally allowed. New citizens will have to promise to uphold democratic freedoms and to accept Germany’s “special historical responsibility” for Nazism and the need to protect Jewish life.

Some 5m resident non-Germans are eu citizens who already enjoy nearly all the rights of natives, and so may not see the need to add another nationality. Of the remaining 8m foreigners, including around 1m Ukrainian refugees, it is unclear how many will now rush to acquire a German passport. It is also unclear how capably the understaffed and underfunded bureaucracy that handles naturalisation, much of it managed by local governments, will adapt to the new rules.

Some estimates suggest that 2m or more Germans could be added to electoral rolls in the next few years. There will probably not be enough of them to strongly affect the next national election in autumn 2025. Nevertheless, the far-right Alternative for Germany party attacked the new law as a “coup d’état through a forced restructuring of voter demographics”. Whomever newly minted Germans vote for, it is hard to argue with two points. Without immigration, Germany’s population would already be in steep decline and its economy in jeopardy. And if Germans fail to make immigrants welcome, they risk creating precisely what the hard right fears: a huge pool of disenfranchised, disgruntled aliens in their midst. ■

Source: Germany strikes a brave new deal on immigration

And in related German news, consideration being given to allowing foreign citizens to serve in the army:

A proposal to allow foreign citizens to serve in the German army, known as the Bundeswehr, could be extended to Europeans in countries outside of the EU.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius had initially put forward the idea of welcoming non-Germans to enlist in order to combat a drastic shortage of personnel.

In addition to Pistorius from the Social Democrats, the idea has also received support from lawmakers belonging to one of its two coalition partners, the FDP, plus the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

However, questions remain about how such a plan would be implemented.

Free Democratic Party (FDP) member Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who chairs the German parliament’s defense committee, told DW that she can envision opening up the German army to candidates from across the continent.

She said candidates could initially come from the EU as well as countries like the United Kingdom, a former EU member, as well as neutral Switzerland. But there is also scope beyond these countries.

“I think that Europe also needs to be considered further, namely those who may live in European states but which do not yet belong to the European Union, but which may well be in accession negotiations,” Strack-Zimmermann said in an interview with DW’s Nina Haase.

“I don’t want to tie it down like that, because it has to be legally scrutinized,” she added.

Source: Germany weighs allowing foreign citizens into the army – DW – 01/22/2024 – DW (English)

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Face à un achalandage record, les délais chez Francisation Québec explosent

2024/01/24 Leave a comment

Not only the federal government that has service delivery issues (a family friend in Montreal is one of those affected):

Attente de plusieurs mois, allocations non versées, suivis de dossier difficiles : six mois après le lancement de Francisation Québec, le service, complètement débordé, connaît des ratés, a constaté Le Devoir.

Sur les 62 000 dossiers complets, 36 300 immigrants, soit environ 60 %, attendent toujours de commencer un cours. « On a vu un avant et un après. Et le constat, c’est que Francisation Québec a complexifié l’accès à la francisation », a soutenu Guillaume Boivin, directeur du centre pour personnes immigrantes Le Tremplin, à Lévis. Avec pour conséquence que les listes d’attente « se sont énormément allongées ».

Alors qu’ils étaient de « deux mois gros max », les délais semblent maintenant souvent excéder la norme de service de 50 jours (environ deux mois et demi) promise pour les cours à temps complet par le ministère de l’Immigration, de la Francisation et de l’Intégration (MIFI). « J’ai même un client qui s’est inscrit en juin et qui vient juste d’être appelé. Ça, c’est pratiquement sept mois », a fait valoir M. Boivin.

Le MIFI reconnaît lui-même sur son site qu’il lui faudra désormais 75 jours pour traiter un dossier. En raison du « nombre élevé de demandes » pour les cours à temps complet, « vingt-cinq (25) jours ouvrables supplémentaires pourraient être nécessaires pour traiter votre première demande », écrit-il à côté de son engagement de traiter toute demande en 50 jours ouvrables.

Les organismes d’aide aux immigrants et les responsables de la francisation au sein de centres de services scolaires à qui Le Devoir a parlé sont unanimes : depuis le lancement de ce guichet unique censé faciliter l’accès à la francisation, les immigrants attendent plus qu’avant. « Pour le temps plein, j’ai des gens qui attendent depuis le mois de septembre d’avoir une place, mais pour le temps partiel, j’en ai qui attendent depuis juillet », explique pour sa part Sarah Toulouse, directrice générale d’Accueil et intégration Bas-Saint-Laurent, en précisant que la moitié de sa clientèle n’est toujours pas en classe.

Même son de cloche chez Alpha Lira, à Sept-Îles, où certaines personnes inscrites l’été dernier attendent toujours de recevoir une invitation du MIFI, a confirmé Fanja Rajery, responsable de la francisation. « Je crois que Francisation Québec est débordé », indique-t-elle.

Pour la session démarrant en janvier, il n’y aurait eu que quatre nouvelles inscriptions. Pourtant, plusieurs immigrants inscrits l’automne dernier attendent avec impatience de pouvoir commencer. « Disons que je suis allée moi-même chercher l’information auprès de notre responsable de secteur, et on a débloqué certains dossiers », a admis Mme Rajery. Plusieurs immigrants ont finalement pu entreprendre la francisation à temps partiel il y a quelques jours.

De nombreux écueils

Le Devoir s’est fait rapporter de nombreux cas de figure qualifiés d’« absurdes » par plusieurs. Par exemple, un immigrant qui se fait dire qu’il commence un cours, mais qui ne figure sur aucune liste du centre de francisation, ou encore un autre à qui on offre un cours en ligne bien qu’il ait spécifié ne pas avoir d’ordinateur. « Son dossier a finalement été suspendu parce qu’il n’a pas pu assister à ce cours en ligne », a raconté une personne qui souhaite garder l’anonymat parce qu’elle est en démarche pour résoudre le problème.

Un étudiant de 16 ans aurait même perdu de précieux mois sur une liste d’attente de francisation aux adultes alors qu’il aurait dû intégrer… une classe d’accueil au secondaire !

La directrice d’Accueil et intégration Bas-Saint-Laurent souligne la difficulté de faire un simple suivi de dossier, notamment pour les immigrants, comme les Ukrainiens, qui n’ont pas déjà de Certificat de sélection du Québec ou de Certificat d’acceptation du Québec. « Dans ces cas-là, le MIFI ne fait pas de suivi pour les informer si les cours vont commencer bientôt, a-t-elle remarqué. Les immigrants sont souvent renvoyés d’une personne à l’autre, on ne sait pas qui est chargé de quoi et ça entraîne des retards. »

Des responsables de la francisation ont aussi rapporté des retards dans le versement des allocations de 200 $ par mois aux immigrants qui suivent des cours à temps plein. « Il y a des personnes [présentement en classe] qui n’ont pas reçu leur financement pour septembre et octobre. Ça crée une certaine détresse dans notre population étudiante », a indiqué Claude Théberge, directeur adjoint du Centre d’éducation des adultes des Navigateurs (CEAN). « On a fait des démarches pour les aider, mais on s’est fait dire de ne plus appeler les agents [du MIFI] parce qu’ils reçoivent trop d’appels là-dessus. »

« Produire » des gens qui parlent français

La directrice du CEAN, Sophie Turgeon, déplore pour sa part le retard dans la transmission des listes, ce qui gêne sa planification. « J’ai besoin de savoir combien d’enseignants je vais avoir de besoin d’une session à l’autre. [Francisation Québec] tarde à fournir les listes, et tout à coup, il nous envoie 200 noms. Les étudiants sont à moitié classés », explique-t-elle. Tout le processus d’évaluation sera à refaire, y compris celui des besoins de l’élève, qui pourrait entre-temps s’être trouvé du travail et ne plus vouloir suivre un cours à temps plein.

« Nous, aux Navigateurs, on veut travailler avec les individus et les aider dans leur intégration. Mais c’est comme si Francisation Québec voulait juste “produire” des gens qui vont parler français », a-t-elle poursuivi. Le ministère de l’Immigration nie tout retard dans le versement des allocations.

Par ailleurs, au 31 décembre 2023, 66,4 % des nouveaux élèves auraient commencé leur francisation en 50 jours ou moins. Toutefois, le ministère indique ne pas être en mesure d’isoler les élèves ayant fait une demande d’inscription après le lancement de Francisation Québec, le 1er juin. Il rappelle que  24 637 élèves étaient « actifs » au 10 janvier 2024. « Ce nombre peut comprendre des élèves qui ont déposé leur demande avant le 1er juin (et qui poursuivent leur parcours avec nous session après session) et des élèves qui ont déposé une demande à Francisation Québec depuis le 1er juin », a précisé le MIFI.

La ministre de l’Immigration, Christine Fréchette, a tenu à réagir à la situation. « Le nombre d’inscriptions dépasse nos scénarios les plus optimistes, a-t-elle déclaré. Cependant, comme dans le reste du réseau de l’éducation, nous connaissons des enjeux de recrutement de professeurs. »

Source: Face à un achalandage record, les délais chez Francisation Québec explosent

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Thibodeau: L’illusion de l’immigration pour combler la pénurie de main-d’oeuvre

2024/01/23 Leave a comment

Of note, the limitations of relying on immigration to address labour shortages, given that immigrants themselves add pressure on housing and public services:

En tant qu’économiste, j’ai fait plusieurs études de retombées économiques : l’étude des retombées potentielles du projet Grande Baleine pour Hydro-Québec, celle ex post des retombées de La Grande 1 et 2, celle de la Convention de la Baie James, celle de tous les parcs d’éoliennes installés au Québec depuis 1997 à 2020 pour CANWEA (Canadian Wind Energy Association), etc. En plus, en 2014, la Société d’habitation du Québec (SHQ) m’a mandaté pour faire l’étude des retombées économiques des Offices municipaux d’habitation.

Dans l’ensemble, ces études démontrent qu’en moyenne, selon les secteurs d’activité, le coefficient multiplicateur de création d’emplois indirects (premiers et seconds fournisseurs) et induits sur l’ensemble du Québec calculé à partir de la création d’emplois directs peut varier entre 5 et 10. Ainsi, pour chaque emploi direct créé seront créés entre 5 et 10 emplois indirects et induits.

Il est présentement beaucoup question de pénurie de main-d’oeuvre dans plusieurs secteurs d’activité économiques. Le recrutement d’un nouvel employé peut-il s’assimiler à la création d’un emploi nouveau comme on vient de le voir plus haut ? Pas complètement, la création d’un nouvel emploi par la mise en place d’une nouvelle activité génère des emplois indirects non seulement pour les intrants à la production, mais aussi pour la fabrication des nouveaux équipements requis. Cela n’est pas nécessairement le cas pour un recrutement ayant pour but de pourvoir un poste vacant.

Mais on peut affirmer que le manque de main-d’oeuvre de façon structurelle et importante dans une entreprise oblige celle-ci à produire en deçà de sa capacité réelle. L’arrivée de nouveaux employés pour pourvoir les postes vacants permettra donc d’augmenter la production exigeant un plus grand besoin de matières premières et d’intrants de toutes sortes (emballage, transports, etc. ). Ces nouveaux employés sollicitent et mobilisent donc des employés dans une multitude d’autres entreprises. C’est une nouvelle demande qui génère des besoins de main-d’oeuvre. Est-ce que ce coefficient multiplicateur se situe entre 5 et 10 ou un peu moins ? De prime abord, il est difficile de le dire, mais il existe, sans aucun doute.

Dans ce coefficient multiplicateur, il y a les effets induits. Ceux-ci sont les emplois créés lorsque sont dépensés les salaires générés par ces nouveaux emplois (directs et indirects). Ce type d’effets demeure discutable lorsque les travailleurs qui occupent ces nouveaux emplois vivaient déjà au Québec et donc avaient un salaire (ou d’autres formes de revenu, comme l’assurance-emploi). Dans ce cas, toute l’induction n’est pas attribuable aux nouveaux emplois.

Cela dit, on se rend bien compte que, si on fait appel à l’immigration pour essayer de combler la pénurie de main-d’oeuvre, on tourne en rond tout en aggravant la situation. Chaque emploi pourvu par un nouvel immigrant nécessitera plusieurs autres emplois pour satisfaire son activité et ses besoins vitaux quotidiens (plus de services de garde, plus de soins de santé, plus de commerces de détail, plus de logements). Puisqu’il s’agit de nouvelles personnes (et même de nouvelles familles) sur le sol québécois, les effets induits en matière d’emplois créés par les achats de biens et de services de ces familles doivent être pris en compte en entier.

Ainsi, même en demeurant très prudent, on peut aisément croire qu’un coefficient multiplicateur de 5 (le bas de la fourchette, donc) pourrait être retenu, chaque travailleur immigrant requerrait la création de cinq nouveaux emplois, dont au moins deux ou trois de façon induite. Il est donc clair que, tant que l’on peut recourir à de la main-d’oeuvre déjà sur le territoire du Québec (meilleure formation de la jeune main-d’oeuvre, utilisation plus systématique des personnes âgées, meilleures conditions de travail dans certains secteurs, etc.) et surtout à l’automatisation et à la robotisation des procédés, il sera plus facile de réduire la pénurie de main-d’oeuvre que de recourir à l’immigration.

Favoriser l’augmentation de l’immigration par compassion pour des personnes en difficulté dans d’autres pays ou encore pour compenser notre faible taux de fécondité et le vieillissement de notre population, c’est une chose, mais compter sur l’immigration pour réduire la pénurie de main-d’oeuvre c’est une erreur. La politique de l’Allemagne en matière d’immigration des dernières années est éclairante en cette matière. Après avoir ouvert toutes grandes leurs portes à l’immigration, ses dirigeants se retrouvent en 2023 avec des pénuries importantes de main-d’oeuvre dans des secteurs névralgiques.

On prend conscience actuellement des pressions énormes que l’accroissement des seuils d’immigration créerait sur le logement. Mais ces pressions se feraient sentir dans l’ensemble du système économique, et en particulier sur nos systèmes de santé et d’éducation, déjà débordés.

Il est pour le moins étonnant que les politiques n’aient pas un minimum de connaissance sur les instruments d’analyse économique. Les analyses de retombées économiques sont pourtant très connues (et nécessaires pour presque tous les projets soumis au BAPE). Elles sont rendues possibles grâce à un instrument statistique très sophistiqué géré et mis à jour par l’Institut de la statistique du Québec, le Tableau interindustriel du Québec, qui met en interrelation toutes les activités économiques du Québec.

Source: L’illusion de l’immigration pour combler la pénurie de main-d’oeuvre

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Canada weighing extra border measures for asylum seekers from Mexico, says public safety minister

2024/01/23 Leave a comment

Kind of amusing the impact that the large numbers, ignored for so long, have finally spurred recognition and likely action, as is the case for Monday’s introduction of caps on international students:

Canada is weighing a number of measures to prevent Mexican nationals from flying into the country to request asylum, a top official said on Sunday, after Quebec’s premier said earlier this week the lack of visa requirements for Mexican travellers meant more refugees were arriving by plane.

Speaking to the Canadian Broadcasting Corp., Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said he and the Immigration Minister Marc Miller were considering visas and other measures.

The two ministers are looking for “the appropriate way to ensure that people who arrived from Mexico arrived for the appropriate reasons and that this doesn’t become sort of a side door to get access to Canada,” Mr. LeBlanc said.

“We’re looking at a number of measures that would, in fact, put us in a position to have done what’s necessary to ensure that these flights directly from Mexico don’t become sort of an indirect way to get access to Canada and to claim asylum,” he added.

In a letter last week, Quebec Premier François Legault urged Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to stem the flow of refugees into the province and to compensate it for costs, claiming Quebec’s services were close to a “breaking point” owing to the rising number.

“Mexican nationals represent a growing proportion of the asylum seekers arriving in Quebec, the possibility of entering Canada from Mexico without a visa certainly explains part of the flow of asylum seekers,” Mr. Legault wrote in the letter.

Ottawa is coming under pressure for its immigration policies because they are blamed for exacerbating a housing crunch, and because some services provided by the provinces, like education and health care, are struggling to keep up with population growth.

Source: Canada weighing extra border measures for asylum seekers from Mexico, says public safety minister

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