Ottawa pressed to factor in 500,000 undocumented residents as it consults on immigration targets

Agree. Last year (finally), TRs were included, albeit imperfectly, the the plan and factoring in the undocumented and government related plans would be a logical next step:

…“Because Minister Miller was transparent with his attempt at regularizing residents without status, it is appropriate to suggest that the new minister put in the levels plan how many she thinks there are, and how many she thinks she could regularize,” he [Henry Lotin] said, referring to a plan to grant permanent residence to many undocumented people under Mr. Trudeau.

“Some highly skilled workers remain in Canada. Officially they have all lost their temporary social insurance numbers and they have all been told by their employers they can no longer work. Evidence has been brought forward to disprove that assumption.” 

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC Capital Marketssaid in an e-mail that “a necessary condition” for any immigration, housing or economic policy is “knowing exactly how many people reside in Canada at any point in time. Unfortunately, that is not the case now.” 

“While in the past, the number of undocumented migrants was negligible, that is no longer the case,” he added. “It is significant enough to impact the macro picture and must be correctly accounted for.”

A 2024 Department of Finance briefing document, released though access to information laws, estimated there are up to 500,000 people living in Canada without the required immigration papers. …

Source: Ottawa pressed to factor in 500,000 undocumented residents as it consults on immigration targets

Québec demande au nouveau gouvernement fédéral sa collaboration en immigration

Of note:

Québec demande à Ottawa de plafonner à 200 000 le nombre de résidents non permanents qui relèvent exclusivement du gouvernement fédéral sur son territoire. Dans une lettre envoyée à ses homologues, le ministre québécois de l’Immigration demande aussi que les régions québécoises soient épargnées par le tour de vis imposé aux entreprises qui embauchent des travailleurs temporaires.

Une « clause de type grand-père » doit s’appliquer aux compagnies en région qui ont embauché des travailleurs étrangers, affirme le ministre Jean-François Roberge dans une lettre dont Le Devoir a obtenu copie.

Le fédéral a décrété l’automne dernier que les employeurs pourront embaucher cette catégorie d’immigrants jusqu’à hauteur de 10 % de leur effectif total, alors que la limite était auparavant de 20 % pour la plupart des industries.

« Le refus de traitement des demandes dans les régions métropolitaines de recensement où le taux de chômage est plus élevé [est une] mesure efficace », explique-t-il. Laval et Montréal n’ont plus besoin de nouveaux travailleurs, alors que « le maintien du niveau de TET [travailleurs étrangers temporaires] dans certaines régions est crucial pour de nombreuses entreprises confrontées à d’importants enjeux de main-d’œuvre ».

Ottawa a déjà commencé à refuser de renouveler des permis temporaires dans les régions centrales de Montréal et de Laval.

Source: Québec demande au nouveau gouvernement fédéral sa collaboration en immigration

Quebec is asking Ottawa to cap the number of non-permanent residents who are exclusively under the federal government’s jurisdiction at 200,000. In a letter sent to his counterparts, the Quebec Minister of Immigration also asked that Quebec regions be spared the screwing imposed on companies that hire temporary workers.

A “grandfather-type clause” must apply to regional companies that have hired foreign workers, says Minister Jean-François Roberge in a letter of which Le Devoir obtained a copy.

The federal government decreed last fall that employers will be able to hire this immigrant category up to 10% of their total workforce, whereas the previous limit was 20% for most industries.

“The refusal to process applications in census metropolitan areas where the unemployment rate is higher [is a] effective measure,” he explains. Laval and Montreal no longer need new workers, while “maintaining the level of TET [temporary foreign workers] in some regions is crucial for many companies facing significant labour issues”.

Ottawa has already begun to refuse to renew temporary permits in the central regions of Montreal and Laval.

ICYMI: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

Important analysis regarding a highly dubious assumption:

…But economists who have analyzed immigration statistics say that any reductions would not reflect the true number of temporary residents living here and may mean that pressure on housing and services will not be eased to the extent expected. 

Official population figures also fail to capture undocumented migrants who last year Mr. Miller estimated could number about 600,000. 

The economists warn that Ottawa is overestimating the number of temporary migrants who leave the country once their visas expire. This could have a serious impact on planning, including for housing demand, they say.

“The undercounting of non-permanent residents is an issue that must be addressed in order for this policy to be effective,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC.

There are just over three million non-permanent residents in Canada, according to the latest Statistics Canada population estimates. 

Non-permanent residents include international students, work-permit holders, asylum claimants and family members of work- or study-permit holders. 

Population estimates by Statscan presume that visa holders whose permits to stay here have expired leave the country within 120 days, but many do not leave and remain and work in Canada, said Henry Lotin, a former federal economist and founder of the consultancy Integrated Trade and Economics. 

“We know that many, perhaps even half, of these expired visa holders are awaiting permanent residency or a renewal of their temporary visa,” Mr. Lotin said. “The population estimates as presented assume expired temporary residents leave the country − that is a fiction.” 

“Policy makers and planners need accurate population estimates to plan adequate housing, infrastructure, health care and other social services. No one plans for population you are told you do not have.”

An analysis published last month by Mr. Tal, with input from Mr. Lotin, also expressed concern that Statistics Canada is not counting people with extended Temporary Resident Visas who do not have work permits. …

Source: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

Canada is potentially heading for a labour supply decline as immigration policy abruptly changes

Hard rather than soft landing, albeit necessary correction:

A series of rapid policy changes aimed at reducing the temporary resident population in Canada could lead to an overall shrinking of the labour force and a potential economic slowdown, economists predict.

A new report from Bank of Nova Scotia says that Ottawa could be “over-correcting” in its attempt to rein in the number of temporary residents in the country, which topped three million people for the first time this July, or 7.3 per cent of the total population.

The bank’s economists predict that the cumulative effect of Ottawa’s shift in immigration policy could lead to a 1-per-cent contraction in Canada’s labour force over the next two years and weakening economic growth if businesses do not boost productivity accordingly.

The federal government announced new restrictions to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program on Monday, raising the minimum wage requirements for the high-wage stream of the program – a move that Ottawa says is designed to incentivize the hiring of domestic workers….

Source: Canada is potentially heading for a labour supply decline as immigration policy abruptly changes

More measures coming to reduce temporary residents, Canadian minister says

Stay tuned, more signs of reality, both substantive and political:

Canada’s government is preparing to unveil a suite of measures to clamp down on temporary immigration and has no plans to follow through right now on a broad program offering status to undocumented residents, the country’s immigration minister told Reuters.

“The era of uncapped programs to come into this country is quickly coming to an end. This is a big shift. You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop immediately,” Marc Miller said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday.

Canada has long prided itself on welcoming newcomers, and the current Liberal government has overseen a dramatic increase in the influx of new residents, especially temporary ones, as many employers struggled to fill vacancies coming out of the pandemic.

But over the past year the tide has shifted: Immigrants are being blamed for a worsening housing situation along with an affordability crisis in the country. Critics have accused the federal government of bringing in too many people.

A Leger poll conducted in July found 60% of respondents said there are too many immigrants coming to Canada.

“I’m not naive enough to think Canada is immune to the waves of anti-immigrant sentiment. … Canadians want a system that is not out of control,” Miller said in a phone interview.

Canadians “want a system that makes sense. And they want one that still has a lot of welcoming aspects we’ve been proud of, but it’s got to make sense,” Miller said, predicting immigration would be “a top issue, if not the top issue, in the next election,” expected to take place in late 2025.

The Canadian government has already outlined some measures. In January it announced a two-year cap on international students – an area of Canada’s immigration system that got “overheated” and was not meant to be “a backdoor entry into Canada,” Miller said.

In March the immigration minister announced Canada’s first-ever cap on temporary immigration. Canada wants to reduce temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years from 6.2% in 2023. That would be a cut of about 20% from Canada’s 2.5 million temporary residents in 2023.

But in its recent monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada expressed doubts that the government could meet its temporary residents goal, noting that non-permanent residents made up 6.8% of the country’s population as of April and that “the share is expected to continue rising over the near-term.”

The bank is right to say achieving this goal is a challenge, but it is a “reasonable” one given the suite of measures Canada plans to announce over the next several weeks, Miller said.

Miller would not give details but said these measures could include changes to post-graduate work permits and enforcement.

Asked if his government had made a mistake in allowing rapid growth in temporary residents, Miller said, “Every government makes mistakes. I think we are all human.” But “coming out of COVID, in particular, we were facing massive labor shortages.”

REFUGEE INFLUX

Meanwhile, Canada is seeing record levels of refugee claims – more than 18,000 in June, according to the Immigration and Refugee Board. This is despite government efforts to deter people by closing the land border to asylum-seekers through a contested bilateral agreement with the United States and by implementing new visa requirements for Mexicans.

Canada cannot dictate how many people file refugee claims but it can make it difficult for asylum-seekers to reach the country. Miller said the government may impose stricter criteria on temporary resident visas to prevent asylum-seekers from coming.

The government had also previously said it would pursue a regularization program to give status to undocumented residents.

That is not on the table before the election, Miller said, but he noted there is a possibility of sector-specific programs.

Source: More measures coming to reduce temporary residents, Canadian minister says

Canada might struggle to rein in surge of temporary residents, Bank of Canada projects

Sobering. See Ivison’s commentary after this article:

The Bank of Canada is projecting that the federal government could fall short of its goal to shrink temporary residents’ share of Canada’s population over the next three years.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced in March that Ottawa would attempt to reduce their share of the population from 6.2 per cent to five per cent by 2027.

But on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada predicted that the government would miss that target. The bank’s monetary policy report — released as part of its announcement to reduce interest rates — said that non-permanent residents’ (NPRs) share of the population has actually grown since the goal was set in March.

“NPRs represented 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April — much higher than at the time of the March announcement — and the share is expected to continue rising over the near term,” the report said.

“This suggests that it will take longer for planned policies to reduce NPR inflows to achieve the 5% target.”

The central bank report does note that there is “considerable uncertainty” about its projections.

“Details on how most temporary resident permit programs will be adjusted are not expected until later this year,” it says, adding that their scenario “will be revised as further measures are announced and more details on program changes become available.”

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said in a statement that the department will be including measures to address the influx of temporary residents in Canada in the upcoming immigration levels plan.

“The levels plan is expanding to include both temporary resident arrivals and permanent resident arrivals. It will be tabled in the fall following consultations with provincial and territorial counterparts and others as part of Canada’s annual levels planning,” the statement said.

Targets expected to be ironed out over summer

Miller met with his provincial and territorial counterparts earlier this spring, and the targets are expected to be ironed out over the summer.

The bank’s report comes as the government has been taking measures to temper the massive rise in people who migrate to Canada on a temporary basis to work or study.

Miller had also announced plans to scale back the number of international students by putting a two-year cap on new admissions in January.

Recent data from IRCC shows that there has been an increase in the number of student permits approved this year compared to 2023, which itself was a record year.

The government approved 216,620 student permits in the first five months of 2024, compared to 200,505 permits over the same period in 2023.

But the numbers for the cap on student visas wasn’t finalized until April, and the IRCC numbers may not yet reflect those changes.

Source: Canada might struggle to rein in surge of temporary residents, Bank of Canada projects

John Ivison: Trust the Liberals to fix immigration? The Bank of Canada doesn’t

…It is apparent that the Bank of Canada feels like it has to step in to clean up the federal government’s mess.

In its Monetary Policy Report, the bank said that NPRs will continue to rise in the near term and it will take longer than predicted to reduce inflows to achieve the five-per-cent target.

“Considerable uncertainty continues to surround the future path of net NPR flows,” it said.

If NPRs continue to leave Canada or become permanent residents at the rate observed since 2021, achieving the target would require reducing average annual gross NPR inflows by around 70 to 80 per cent across the temporary foreign worker program, the International Mobility Program and the asylum-seeker program, in addition to imposing a cap on the number of international students.

Mike Moffatt, an economist and senior director at the Smart Prosperity Institute, said the bank is clearly questioning the credibility of the federal commitment to the five-per-cent target.

“I think it’s fair. They’re basically saying the government isn’t going to do what they claim they’ll do. I don’t remember the last time I saw that from them,” he said.

It is a sign of how undisciplined immigration policy has become that the central bank feels it has to step out of its lane to admonish the government.

Source: John Ivison: Trust the Liberals to fix immigration? The Bank of Canada doesn’t

Temporary residents in Canada rise to 2.8 million ahead of government restrictions

Highlights the challenges the government has in reversing growth that it encouraged and enabled:

The number of temporary residents in Canada swelled to 2.8 million in the first quarter, underscoring the challenge facing a federal government that is looking to restrict migration to the country.

Temporary residents – a group that includes international students, people here on work permits and asylum claimants – now comprise 6.8 per cent of the total population, up from 3.5 per cent two years ago, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday.

Over all, the population grew by roughly 243,000 or 0.6 per cent during the first quarter, bringing the total to more than 41 million.

Canada is experiencing some of its fastest population growth in decades, fuelled almost entirely by immigration. The number of temporary residents has more than doubled over the past two years, raising concerns about Canada’s ability to welcome so many people, particularly in housing markets with low supply.

Source: Temporary residents in Canada rise to 2.8 million ahead of government restrictions

One way to decrease temporary residents is to make them permanent, ministers suggest

Still boils down to the overall numbers, both temporary and permanent:

…Several ministers warned the new policy would create added demand for their provincial immigration programs as temporary residents apply to stay in the country. They pitched expanding their provincial programs as a win-win solution to keep people in Canada permanently.

“The fact people are already here, their impact on affordability has already been baked in, so it’s smart,” Miller said.

“But it doesn’t mean by extension that everyone’s entitled to stay here or be here in Canada.”

Ottawa can also do more to seek people who are already in Canada when it comes to federal permanent residency programs, he said….

Source: One way to decrease temporary residents is to make them permanent, ministers suggest

Also:

Talks about reducing the number of temporary foreign residents in Canada have kicked off between the federal government and provinces, with the Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledging that there needs to be better co-ordination to shrink numbers across Canada.

The Forum of Ministers Responsible for Immigration (FMRI) met in Montreal on Friday, where Mr. Miller asked his provincial and territorial counterparts to provide figures to show where there is a need to bring in more foreign workers, as he took the first step to reducing numbers.

There are now about 2.5 million temporary residents, a number that includes asylum seekers, international students and people here on work permits. The government plans to reduce the proportion of temporary residents in the population from 6.2 per cent to 5 per cent over the next three years. That would decrease the temporary resident population by about 19 per cent….

Source: Ottawa holds first talks with provinces about reducing temporary foreign resident numbers

Premier Legault ups pressure on Trudeau to deliver on immigration power promise

So it goes:

Premier François Legault is calling on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to make good on a commitment to turn over more powers over immigration to Quebec.

And Legault said he does not share Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre’s Plamondon’s gloomy forecast of Quebec’s future in the Canadian federation. He questioned the PQ’s leader’s credentials noting “not so long ago Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon was not even a nationalist.”

“I respect the opinion of Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon but I disagree,” Legault said at a news conference following an announcement that the government will create a new national museum of history in the Quebec capital.

“I still think that we can manage, with the federal government, to get more power to better defend our identity.”

He then went on to remind Trudeau of commitments he made at a March 14 meeting in Montreal. Legault said Trudeau was open to finding solutions to the growing number of temporary immigrants in Quebec — they now number 560,000 — which are heavily taxing Quebec’s health, education and housing systems.

It was after that meeting that Legault said Trudeau was open to discussing the addition of immigration visas on more countries, such as was done recently to make it more difficult for workers from Mexico to come to Canada.

The prime minister expressed openness to discussing the idea of giving Quebec a say on the admission of temporary workers and that some be refused when they seek to renew their permits to work here, Legault said. The premier added Trudeau said he would entertain new rules ensuring more of the workers speak French.

“It doesn’t make sense to have 560,000 temporary immigrants, it doesn’t make sense,” Legault said Thursday, turning up the heat on Trudeau. “We do not have the welcoming capacity plus 180,000 asylum seekers. Mr. Trudeau said he would look at different ways to transfer power or have a pre-approval by the Quebec government.

“He promised me a new meeting before June 30 so I will wait and see the situation, but right now I’m a bit scared about the situation. It’s important that Mr. Trudeau makes a concrete gesture to reduce this number.”

Legault, who has made his encounters with the media scarce in the last few weeks, responded as well to a speech St-Pierre Plamondon delivered at a party council meeting April 14 in Drummondville.

St-Pierre Plamondon painted a gloomy picture of Quebec’s future in Canada, accusing the federal government and Trudeau of cooking up a plan to erase Quebec. He said the only solution to save Quebec’s language and culture is a referendum on independence, which he promised to hold should he form a government in 2026.

On Thursday, Legault responded by noting St-Pierre Plamondon has changed his views many times. He noted St-Pierre Plamondon has said that nationalism is not necessarily the solution and the PQ’s approach to selling sovereignty was “childish,” because it believes the reason Quebecers are not overwhelmingly in favour of independence is because the movement has not explained its ideas enough.

“He’s the one who started quoting my past statements,” Legault said Thursday defending his attacks. “What we need to remember is that not very long ago Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon was not even a nationalist. He found being a nationalist was not a good idea.”

Source: Premier Legault ups pressure on Trudeau to deliver on immigration power promise

Speer: Justin Trudeau critiques Justin Trudeau’s immigration policies

More on the PM’s non-mea culpa:

The strangest story this week was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s acknowledgement that his government has overseen an uncontrolled increase of temporary immigration into the country “far beyond what Canada has been able to absorb.” 

It’s an extraordinary admission for various reasons including the seeming detachment from his government’s ultimate responsibility for the massive spike in non-permanent residents. His comments sounded like those of an incoming prime minister condemning the policy failures of his or her predecessor. 

Yet these developments are neither inadvertent nor the fault of a past government. A combination of the Trudeau government’s untightening of its predecessor’s 2014 reforms to the Temporary Foreign Worker program and its own expansion of the international student visas are what’s ultimately behind the 93 percent increase in non-permanent residents since 2021 alone. 

Another way to put it is: Canada’s population grew faster in 2023 than any year since 1957 and of that year-over-year growth, 63 percent came from non-permanent residents. It was the second consecutive year in which temporary immigration has driven the country’s population growth. These are unprecedented numbers.  

Their demand-side implications for housing and shelter and other basic infrastructure had up until recently gone essentially unrecognized by the Trudeau government. It has now only recently started to shift its messaging and policies in light of growing public concerns and plummeting poll numbers. 

Immigration Minister Marc Miller has described the spike in temporary resident permits as a “byproduct of a lack of integrity in the system.” He recently announced plans to cut them in order to restore a more “sustainable level.” Prime Minister Trudeau’s uncharacteristically pointed comments this week must be understood in this evolving political context in which his government is effectively running against itself.  

There’s a strong case however that the prime minister shouldn’t have been surprised by the rise of temporary immigration or its negative effects. He actually forewarned about them as the then-third-party leader in a prescient Toronto Star op-ed ten years ago next month.

Trudeau called the (relatively moderate) growth of temporary residents under the Harper government a case of “mismanagement” that represented “serious damage” to the public’s ongoing support for high levels of permanent immigration. 

In particular, he warned that temporary immigration depresses wages and displaces Canadian workers. He effectively argued for eliminating the Temporary Foreign Workers program altogether (“I believe it is wrong for Canada to follow the path of countries who exploit large number of guest workers”) and instead putting a priority on permanent immigrants who have a path to citizenship. He argued that this approach was rooted in the principle of fairness for Canadians who need work and temporary immigrants themselves. 

It seems somewhat unfair to hold his near-decade-old arguments against him today. Opposition politicians understandably tend to get a bit of leeway for such policy adjustments. A lot has also happened in the intervening time. 

But the difference here is that the prime minister knew what would happen if we continued to steadily increase temporary immigrants. We know because he persuasively wrote about it. Trudeau anticipated the political economy risks and yet upon getting elected he opted to do nothing about it—or more precisely rather than “dramatically scale back” the country’s temporary resident population, he inexplicably chose to dramatically scale it up. 

If the Trudeau government loses the next federal election, which at the moment seems quite likely, it may be in large part because when it came to temporary immigration, the prime minister failed to heed his own well-considered advice. 

Source: Justin Trudeau critiques Justin Trudeau’s immigration policies