Canada Curbed Illegal Migration to the U.S. Now People Are Heading to Canada.

Sort of inevitable that increased security patrols mean further persons found. No major uptick to date, February data should be out shortly:

…Canada has directed 1.3 billion Canadian dollars ($900 million) to enhance border security, adding two Black Hawk helicopters and 60 drones equipped with thermal cameras.

It also tightened requirements for temporary visas that some visitors used to arrive in Canada legally but then enter the United States illegally.

The Canadian government says its recent measures have driven down the number of unauthorized crossings into the United States: About 600 migrants were intercepted at the border in January, down from about 900 in January 2024, according to U.S. data.

“Whether or not some of the allegations about what is going on at the border are accurate or not, or credible or not, I don’t have the luxury not to take it seriously,” Marc Miller, Canada’s immigration minister, said in an interview on Thursday.

…The Opposite Direction

Canada’s focus on the border, against the backdrop of Mr. Trump’s domestic crackdown on migrants, is why the nine people walking into Alberta on Feb. 3 raised alarms: It was unusual to see a group this large crossing on foot in the heart of winter. The presence of young children made it all the more troubling.

The Canadian authorities say they have been intercepting more people arriving from the United States, but because of the schedule Canada follows in releasing data, no numbers are yet available for the weeks since Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January. But government news releases suggest the numbers are rising….

“This is the latest sign that Canada is sending people and families with children back to the U.S. with the full knowledge that they are at great risk of being detained and then returned to danger,” said Ketty Nivyabandi, a leader of Amnesty International’s Canada chapter, referring to the nine migrants Canada returned to the United States. 

“The Canadian government must not wait a minute longer to withdraw from the Safe Third Country Agreement,” she added.

But such a move would likely encourage more people to seek refuge in Canada, creating new pressures on the country’s already strained immigration system.

“It would almost certainly lead to a surge in unauthorized border crossings,” said Phil Triadafilopoulos, a political science professor at the University of Toronto.

Still, he added, by continuing to return asylum seekers to the United States, Canada is signaling that “it isn’t going to receive people who have lost their temporary protected status in the U.S. as hospitably as it did in the past.”

And as illustrated by the migrants who crossed in Alberta, those groups, he said, can “include small children in really dire conditions, with the full knowledge that the fate of those children and their families is highly uncertain.”

Mr. Miller, the immigration minister, insisted that Canada believes that the United States remains a safe country for asylum seekers.

“We need to have a proper, managed system at the border,” he said. “But it doesn’t mean that we’re naïve, or we’re not watching events that are currently happening in the U.S.”…

Source: Canada Curbed Illegal Migration to the U.S. Now People Are Heading to Canada.

Canada faces calls to suspend asylum agreement with U.S., saying Trump orders undermine migrants’ rights

Real dilemma for the government given that USA is becoming less safe and the risk of significant increases in asylum claimants from the USA without the STCA to help control and manage inflows:

The federal government is facing calls to suspend a long-standing agreement with the U.S. to return asylum seekers at the border, with immigration experts saying the United States should no longer be considered a safe place for people fleeing persecution.

They say U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive orders that make it easier to deport or detain migrants – including plans to hold 30,000 migrants accused of criminality in Guantanamo Bay – undermine their rights to such an extent that Canada should halt returning asylum seekers to the U.S.

Under the Safe Third Country Agreement, which came into effect in 2004, asylum seekers must make a claim at the first country in which they arrive. The agreement means that most asylum seekers arriving at the Canadian border are automatically returned to the U.S., with some exceptions such as people facing the death penalty.

Immigration lawyers and refugee advocates say Mr. Trump’s policies that make it easier to deport asylum seekers without a court hearing and increase detention may breach international law and should prompt Canada to rethink or suspend the agreement.

“The executive actions in the U.S. will materially impede access to asylum, and result in the routine imprisonment of refugees, contrary to UN standards,” says Erin Simpson, a partner at immigration law firm Landings LLP in Toronto.

“When Canada returns refugees to the U.S. under the Safe Third Country Agreement, they risk deportation to persecution and torture, and prison. Canada has the authority to suspend the agreement, and should exercise that authority until it is satisfied the agreement is not harming refugees.”

…But some experts warned that scrapping the agreement could lead to an influx of asylum seekers to Canada, who could not be turned back.

James Yousif, a Toronto-based lawyer who was director of policy to former Conservative immigration minister Jason Kenney, said the move would be “reckless” and “risk destabilizing Canada’s social and economic foundations.”

“Canada would face a surge in asylum claims from undocumented migrants in the United States, overwhelming public systems. Provinces and cities would be required to provide health care, social assistance, education and housing supports,” he said, adding they would be “severely strained.”

Source: Canada faces calls to suspend asylum agreement with U.S., saying Trump orders undermine migrants’ rights

Michael Barutciski: With Trump’s deportations underway, what will Canada’s asylum policy look like? 

Useful reminder of limits. But Trump policies undermine the principles underlying the STCA:

In light of the Trump administration’s early moves to deport migrants without legal status in the U.S., there’s been heightened debate here in Canada about how we may (or may not) be positioned to handle a surge of claimants seeking refuge. Beyond the logistical capacity issues of handling high volumes of cases at our border, there are outstanding questions about Canada’s legal obligations to claimants and what, if any, policy and legal scope we have to manage the potential influx. The truth is it is greater than is often understood.

A key source of the confusion is that for years many in Canada have held a false assumption about the legal constraints imposed on our asylum procedures through a landmark Supreme Court decision in 1985, Singh v. Canada. The Globe and Mail’s editorial board recently repeated this mistake, asserting that Canada’s top court decided the Charter guarantees asylum seekers the right to a hearing as soon as they set foot in the country. This misreading of Singh has a real effect on our immigration predicament.

The Supreme Court did establish an important general rule in Singh: all persons who arrive at the border are covered by the Charter, regardless of their immigration status. Yet establishing that the Charter applies is not the same as interpreting the content of these Charter rights in various contexts.

In terms of refugee status determination procedures, the Supreme Court noted in Singh that the claimants, all Sikhs, were going to be sent by Canadian authorities back to their home country. For six of the seven claimants, this meant being returned to India, a country the Court considered dangerous for them given the violent internal tensions at the time. (The other claimant was to be returned to Guyana.)

However, the Supreme Court never generalized by saying that all claimants always have a right to a hearing. That is the exaggerated interpretation encouraged for years by activists and wishful-thinking academics. If claimants come to Canada via a safe third country, such as the U.S., then they can be returned to that country. This is the basic principle at the heart of the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA), which the Court accepted last year when it refused to declare the agreement unconstitutional (as activists and academics have been demanding for years).

In other words, dealing with asylum claimants coming from the U.S. is a different situation than the one addressed in Singh and the legal constraints are not the same. This nuance is recognized in both the 1951 Refugee Convention and Canadian legislation. The convention does not even mention anything about hearings. Its most basic protection is the principle of “non-refoulement,” which stipulates that refugees cannot be returned to a country where their “life of freedom would be threatened.” It allows claimants to be returned to safe countries, which is why the adoption of the STCA was possible in the first place.

Section 101 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act specifically includes eligibility clauses that should suggest caution to anyone who believes automatic access to a hearing is part of Canada’s system. There is an initial determination as to whether the migrant is eligible to make a claim, including various security-related grounds of inadmissibility.

Moreover, there is also a clause rendering claimants ineligible when they come “directly or indirectly to Canada from a country designated by the regulations.” This is the legislative provision that enables return to the U.S. Even a cursory reading of the act should make clear that an automatic right to a refugee hearing was never intended or established by Parliament.

Despite these legal provisions, the Liberals have spent years reinforcing the confusion regarding Singh, constantly asserting that asylum seekers trying to enter “irregularly” at Roxham Road had the right to a hearing. When the government’s inaction regarding the illegal crossings led to record numbers of asylum claimants and public anxiety over the lack of border control, the government eventually negotiated an amendment to the STCA that essentially closed Roxham Road. Nobody seemed to notice that the supposed right to a hearing in Canada disappeared.

It is ironic that Prime Minister Trudeau recently acknowledged in the French version of a YouTube video that asylum seekers at Roxham Road were actually abusing the system. This incoherent and unserious approach was again revealed when Immigration Minister Marc Miller repeated the false argument about a supposed unqualified right to a hearing during a press conference explaining the reimposition of visas on Mexican nationals (who he claimed were abusing the asylum system).

After many years of lax asylum policies, followed more recently by continual controversies, there now appears to be an attempt to debate the country’s genuine asylum dilemmas with the Globe’s editorial board suggesting “new thinking is needed.” Most reasonable Canadians realize that tightening the current asylum system in a manner that treats claimants fairly is sufficiently challenging; we do not need to make it even more difficult by inventing legal constraints.

Singh established that asylum seekers in Canada who risk being returned to a dangerous country benefit from a right to a hearing if they claim protection. The corollary is equally important if we are to explore creative solutions to Canada’s asylum problems: there cannot be a Charter violation if asylum seekers are sent to a safe country. Although it will disappoint activists, the future of a sustainable asylum system will inevitably involve extraterritorial procedures and an extension of the safe third-country idea. We need to properly grasp basic legal constraints to make sure these procedures are as fair and humane as possible.

Source: Michael Barutciski: With Trump’s deportations underway, what will Canada’s asylum policy look like?

‘Everything’s on the table,’ minister says about Canada’s response to Trump’s order on gender

Probably not:

Gender Equality Minister Marci Ien says that President Donald Trump’s executive order that the U.S. government will only recognize male and female genders from now on is “highly disturbing,” with worrying implications for members of the transgender community.

Ms. Ien said she will be meeting with Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly on Thursday to discuss how the order will affect Canada, including whether a travel advisory should be issued to warn gender-diverse Canadians planning to visit the United States.

The two ministers will also talk about whether Canada should create a special carve-out in the Safe Third Country Agreement with Washington, so that transgender asylum seekers who come to Canada’s border would not be automatically sent back to the U.S.

Asylum seekers coming to either Canada or the United States must make a refugee claim where they first arrive, but human-rights and refugee advocates argue that the U.S. can no longer be considered safe for trans people.

“Everything’s on the table,” Ms. Ien said in an interview. “Canada already opens its doors to 2SLGBTQI+ people who are fleeing aggression. Canada already does that, and I don’t see why we stop doing that. Did we ever think that the United States would be one of those countries? I don’t know about that. That’s new.”

Her remarks contrast with those of Immigration Minister Marc Miller, who in an interview on Tuesday said that despite Mr. Trump’s measures, he still regards the U.S. as a safe place under the agreement….

Source: ‘Everything’s on the table,’ minister says about Canada’s response to Trump’s order on gender

‘A cat-and-mouse game of epic proportions’: What Trump’s mass deportations and immigration enforcement mean to Canada

Will see extent to which this affects asylum claimants through monthly statistics…

In 2023, during the Biden administration, Canada and the U.S. updated the Safe Third Country Agreement to essentially ban anyone crossing anywhere along the land border from making asylum claims in the other country. The initial ban had applied only at the official ports of entry and prompted irregular migrants to sneak through unguarded entry points such as Roxham Road in Quebec.

Despite the expanded asylum ban and Ottawa’s new border surveillance and enforcement effort to appease Trump — who has threatened crippling tariffs on Canadian goods — desperate migrants won’t be deterred because they are not going to return to the Global South, said immigration lawyer Chantal Desloges.

The removal of legal pathways for migrants to seek protection in the U.S. — suspending the refugee resettlement program and shutting down the app for migrants to make an appointment to legally enter the U.S. for asylum — won’t help, she noted.

“This is going to feed human smugglers and it’s going to make people take risks,” said Desloges. “More people are going to die when attempting these crossings.”

While it’s yet to be seen whether the White House can secure the funding to build 100,000 additional detention beds and how it will boost enforcement, refugee lawyer Adam Sadinsky said Trump’s rhetoric about the planned raids in major metropolitan areas and holding migrants in jail for the maximum time is enough to instil fear among migrants in the U.S.

“All of this language is used to make America look as inhospitable to refugees as possible,” said Sadinsky, a spokesperson for the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers.

“Our government is maybe falling into the same sort of rhetoric that refugees are a burden and a problem and something we need to protect against rather than a population that we need to protect.”

There’s a provision in the revised Safe Third Country Agreement that allows irregular migrants to seek asylum in Canada or the U.S. if they managed to cross an unguarded land border and remain undetected for 14 days — a clause that Ottawa is said to want to remove from the deal, to tighten asylum eligibility and reduce refugee backlogs.

However, critics said it’s not a real solution because it would simply move the backlog from the refugee board to the Immigration Department, which would be required to assess if potential deportees are safe to be sent back to their country of origin or to the U.S. However, Ottawa announced just this week it will cut 3,300 immigration staff.

“We are going to see a cat-and-mouse game of epic proportions between asylum seekers trying to sneak in and border agents trying to keep them out,” said refugee lawyer Max Berger. “If scrapped, it will not deter asylum seekers from sneaking to avoid deportation from the U.S. … but just drive them further underground.”

On Tuesday, Public Safety Minister David McGuinty said that so far, Canada hasn’t seen any increase in the number of irregular migrants, but officials are monitoring it closely. He also cautioned that anyone considering crossing Canada’s border illegally would be putting themselves at risk.

“One of the messages we’re imparting to folks who are in the United States is it’s illegal to cross between border crossings,” he said. “It’s also unsafe.”

Source: ‘A cat-and-mouse game of epic proportions’: What Trump’s mass deportations and immigration enforcement mean to Canada

Barutciski: A loophole in the Safe Third Country Agreement could cause Canada big problems 

Despite or because of the political turmoil, expect that this provision will be negotiated away:

…The big picture for policymakers is that Canada under the Trudeau Liberals has become an outlier among Western democracies. With its lax visa policy, incomparably high refugee-status recognition rates and reluctance to remove failed claimants, Canada now serves as a global magnet for masses of people seeking better conditions. The number of monthly asylum claims in our geographically isolated country rivals Germany, the largest EU host country. It is exceeding the other leading EU host countries, namely France, Spain and Italy. Even if adjudication procedures could be streamlined and additional funding could magically appear to address the massive backlog, the current intake is simply unsustainable.

To correct this distorted approach to asylum, which used to be a historic concept focused on protecting victims of individualized persecution, future Canadian policy needs to emphasize co-operation and harmonization with our Western partners. This more realistic approach has to develop alongside our closest ally, which shares our long, undefended border, as well as the same continental security concerns. Eliminating the 14-day rule is a logical place to start.

Source: A loophole in the Safe Third Country Agreement could cause Canada big problems 


Ottawa faces calls to scrap rule allowing migrants crossing border covertly to claim asylum after two weeks

Will see what government does but my guess is that the pressures to do so will be hard to resist:

…Opposition politicians and provincial premiers have raised fears about an influx of migrants to Canada from the U.S. after president-elect Donald Trump threatened to deport about 11 million people living there illegally.

“At a minimum, the 14-day rule should be suspended temporarily until we know what we are dealing with,” said immigration lawyer Richard Kurland, who obtained the border agency’s intelligence document through an access to information request.

Under the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the U.S., asylum-seekers must make their claim in the first country in which they arrive. In March last year, the two countries restricted the agreement, ending the ability to claim asylum after crossing at Roxham Road.

Both Canada and the U.S. can terminate the agreement with six months’ notice, and they can also negotiate changes. Immigration lawyer David Matas said “the agreement could be extended by removing the possibility of staying in Canada if one enters Canada illegally and remains hidden for 14 days or more.

“That would be even more effective in discouraging traversal of the U.S. than the present form of the agreement.”

Canada does not return people to the United States if they have been charged with an offence that could subject them to the death penalty.

Warda Shazadi Meighen, a lawyer at Landings LLP, said Canada would have the power to enact additional public-interest exemptions to help people facing persecution if they were returned to the United States.

“One can imagine a scenario where women fleeing gender-based violence, and individuals facing LGBTQ+ persecution, for example, would not get adequate protection under certain administrations in the United States,” she said.

Source: Ottawa faces calls to scrap rule allowing migrants crossing border covertly to claim asylum after two weeks

Clark: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

Of note:

…On Sunday, he called for a crackdown on people coming to Canada – tightening visa requirements to make it harder to visit and setting a cap on the number of asylum-seekers.

For a long time, Mr. Poilievre didn’t go there. His party wanted MPs and candidates to steer clear of anything that suggested tough talk on immigration. It’s only in the last few months that Mr. Poilievre has ramped up criticism of the Liberal government’s failure to control a surge of temporary residents.

Now, he’s talking about cracking down on “false refugees” and warning “our Canadian jobs are being taken.”

“I think it is time for a cap. And it is time to get rid of all of the abuse,” Mr. Poilievre said in his press conference on Sunday.

He added: “We need to shut off the flow of false refugee claims who are in no danger in their country of origin but are sneaking in either through our porous border or our weak visa system, and when they land here making a false claim.”

That’s the kind of lexicon Mr. Poilievre had kept from his lips for a long time, and on an issue that wasn’t in the repertoire of attacks against the government in the Commons until November….

Source: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

Labman and Gaucher: Why the ‘language of loopholes’ should be avoided if Trump cracks down on the Canada-U.S. border

Representative of the views of most academics/activists and divorced from both domestic and Trump administration realities.

It would be far more productive for them to make practical and realistic suggestions to attenuate the impact for those most in need rather than making these general arguments. (e.g., Rob Vineberg’s suggestion on how to improve asylum claim processing).

The general statement that these restrictions will result in an increase in “undertaking dangerous and sometimes deadly measures to seek protection” is correct but will likely cause some to reconsider the risks.

As to the loophole terminology, the reality is that it is likely perceived as such by migrants themselves and those helping them, as they understandably seek a way to enter Canada:

Refugee advocates on both sides of the Canada-United States border are already gearing up for the next round of battle regarding the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA).

With the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, the incoming appointment of Tom Homan as a “border czar” and stated plans for border crackdowns and mass deportations, there is heightened awareness of the impact on Canadian border crossings.

Trump, in fact, has threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing the border.

STCA timeline

Originally signed in 2002, the STCA permits the return of asylum seekers who arrive in Canada from the U.S. — or vice versa — because both countries are considered safe.

For more than two decades, refugee advocates have called for it to be suspended given the agreement’s negative impact on access to asylum and how it can fuel human trafficking. Instead, the agreement was expanded in March 2023 to make it harder to cross the border.

Simultaneously, Roxham Road, a central crossing point in Québec for asylum seekers travelling from the U.S. to Canada during the first Trump administration, was closed down in 2023.

Supposed loopholes

Debates around the STCA often feature complaints that the agreement contains loopholes that must be closed.

Prior to March 2023, the agreement allowed Canada to refuse refugees coming through the U.S. who sought entry at official border crossings. Crossing at an unofficial border point, however, did not trigger the agreement, a detail described by critics as a legislative loophole.

These critics argued that asylum seekers were exploiting the loophole by avoiding official land ports of entry to make their refugee claims.

To be clear, the decision about official and unofficial border crossings was not accidental. It was an intentional recognition of the expansive reach of the Canada-U.S. border and the impossibility of attentively monitoring or tracking all refugee routes into Canada or the U.S.

Obscuring understanding

Our research, featured in Emmett Macfarlane and Kate Puddister’s upcoming book Disciplinary Divides in the Study of Law and Politics, explores how this language of loopholes works to dangerously obscure our understanding of how migrants move, the STCA’s effectiveness as a tool of border control and whether the U.S. is in fact safe for refugees.

The idea of a loophole implies an error that must be addressed, and, at the border, a hole to be closed or a road to be sealed. The language of loopholes centres on the “security” of the border.

The revised STCA now applies across the entirety of the border between Canada and the U.S., at both official and unofficial crossings. The perceived loophole of crossing at unofficial entry points and being able to claim asylum has been closed. Yet, in the aftermath of the U.S. election, new loophole language is surfacing.

Under the new STCA, migrants who cross into Canada at irregular border points will be returned to the U.S. (or vice versa) — but only if they’re discovered within the first 14 days of their arrival. This incentivizes refugees to evade detection for two weeks so that they can make a claim for protection in Canada.

With the land crossing “loophole” closed, we now see critics pointing to this 14-day provision as yet another loophole, describing it as an ill-considered gap in the revised agreement that must be closed — further limiting access to asylum.

Placing asylum seekers in harm’s way

Many refugee advocates have argued this new 14-day condition puts asylum seekers at greater risk, pushing them into hiding and making them reliant on human traffickers. But these advocates don’t use the language of loopholes — they simply see it as further argument on why the STCA is not the right way to control irregular crossings and should be suspended entirely.

With a Canadian federal election on the horizon and ongoing debates around the agreement looming large, Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledged there may be need to consider a “different approach” to border management. He says the government is focused on a “secure” border.

This public fixation on the type of border crossing migrants undertake isn’t unique to commentary on the STCA.

Migrants arriving in Canada by sea from various South Asian regions on the Komagata Maru in 1914, the Amelie in 1987, the Ocean Lady in 2009 and the MV Sun Sea in 2010 were met with strong opposition from Canadian governments, accused of using a disingenuous channel to seek entry.

Excluding some migrants

Characterizing asylum seekers who are crossing the border as exploiting a loophole is therefore aligned with a Canadian immigration history that, while inclusive in certain respects, has been marked by both legal and illegal attempts to exclude certain groups of migrants.

In fact, crossing a territorial border to trigger a legal right to claim asylum is viewed fearfully in contrast to the airport receptions of resettled refugees who, for the fortunate few with access to this discretionary route to protection, are celebrated.

Debating whether asylum seekers are exploiting perceived loopholes taps into public sentiment about specific migrant arrivals of the past.

It also ignores both Canadian and American complicity in facilitating these unofficial crossings in the first place by choosing to place obstacles in the way of asylum seekers rather than devoting care and resources to a fair and orderly processing of refugee claims.

Closing ‘loopholes’ won’t deter migrants

This language of loopholes suggests that once the loophole is closed, applications for asylum and incidents of trafficking will decrease.

This assumption is empirically false given the grim realities of migration. The presence or absence of loopholes does not prevent asylum seekers from undertaking dangerous and sometimes deadly measures to seek protection.

Conversations around the STCA that focus on loopholes have lost sight of the needs of asylum seekers and our commitments in international law to protect refugees. Instead they emphasize the supposed illegitimacy of border crossers, echoing the country’s longstanding preoccupation with how one negotiates the border.

Source: Why the ‘language of loopholes’ should be avoided if Trump cracks down on the Canada-U.S. border

Canada can’t support influx of migrants fleeing Trump, must prevent border crossings, says former top aide

Clearly the case, for domestic as well as USA reasons:

Canada needs to significantly strengthen its border, says a former chief of staff to Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, because it can’t absorb large numbers of migrants who could flee here to evade U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s pledge of mass deportations.

Peter Wilkinson, who recently spent 21 months as Ms. Joly’s top lieutenant and previously served as chief of staff to former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, said Canadians should be deeply concerned about Mr. Trump’s plan to deport up to 11 million undocumented migrants after he takes office in January.

While Mr. Trump has vowed to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico in a bid to stop illegal crossings and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., Mr. Wilkinson worries about the threat of mass deportations.

“We just can’t take 11 million people. We can’t even take one million people or 500,000 people,” he said in an interview. “We have to stop people from coming in. We will be faced with something that as Canadians, that we never really faced before.”

Mr. Wilkinson said the country’s health care and social-welfare systems can’t handle potentially huge numbers of people crossing into Canada. While many groups will argue that this country should accept these migrants, he warned that this issue could fracture the Canadian consensus on immigration.

“Lots of groups in society will be saying ‘no, we can’t do that, it is inhumane,’ and I understand that,” he said. “We are straining a bit now on the consensus in the country in regard to immigration and refugees. This will blow it up.”…

Source: Canada can’t support influx of migrants fleeing Trump, must prevent border crossings, says former top aide