Mike Moffatt and Cara Stern: Bold solutions to the housing crisis must be front and centre in budget 2024

On immigration, sensibly propose a reduction to 2022 levels (arguably, might need further reduction given housing construction timelines, healthcare capacity and the like):

Address demand while waiting for supply

Canada’s housing crisis was largely caused by our housing stock not keeping up with population growth. Supply-side reforms are needed to increase the absorptive capacity of the housing system to support the newcomers that contribute so much culturally and economically to the fabric of this country. However, that will take time, so demand-side measures are needed while the country builds that capacity.

In the last 18 months, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada nearly doubled, from 1.37 million to 2.5 million. This rapid growth led to a crisis for international students and other non-permanent residents who did not have the housing or supports needed to thrive in Canada. The federal government has responded by capping international student visas, but there is more work to be done.

They could develop a plan to reduce the number of non-permanent residents to 2022 levels of roughly 1.5 million. This one-million-person reduction can happen through attrition by slowing the intake of non-permanent residents (as with the international student visa cap) to levels that are exceeded by the outflow. This includes those both leaving the country and those gaining permanent residency. The purpose of this would not be to close the border to those who contribute so much to Canada but rather give the country time to increase its absorptive capacity. This would then create the conditions for both newcomers and existing residents to thrive.

Source: Mike Moffatt and Cara Stern: Bold solutions to the housing crisis must be front and centre in budget 2024

Yakabuski: Australia’s centre-left Labor government points the way for Canada’s Liberals on immigration

Lots more to Australian changes but this is one of the major ones, with lessons for the current Canadian government:

…In December, the current Labor government headed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese slammed on the brakes. It unveiled a plan to “reform Australia’s broken migration system” and “bring migration back to sustainable levels.” Net migration will be reduced to 375,000 this year and to 250,000 in 2024-25.

“People my age in my city and anyone younger right now think that owning their own home is a pipe dream. They can’t get into a rental,” said Clare O’Neil, Australia’s 43-year-old Home Affairs Minister and a Melbourne MP. “[W]e’ve got a housing crisis in our country that is not being helped by what is a very large migration intake.”

While Australia’s centre-left federal government has finally moved – however reluctantly – to fix a “broken” immigration system, Canada’s is still in denial. Liberal Immigration Minister Marc Miller last month announced a 35-per-cent reduction in student visas this year. But that timid move was typical of a government that still refuses to admit its immigration-policy mistakes.

Mr. Miller has not taken any action to reduce the number of temporary foreign worker visas Ottawa hands out. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has insisted his government has no intention of scrapping its plan to increase the number of new permanent residents Canada accepts to 500,000 in 2025, from 485,000 this year, 341,000 in 2019 and 272,000 in 2015.

In short, the Liberals still seem wedded to Big Canada, despite its increasingly obvious pitfalls.

Source: Australia’s centre-left Labor government points the way for Canada’s Liberals on immigration

Non-binding Commons vote calls for feds to revise immigration quota

Interesting that the NDP didn’t vote with the Liberals:

A call from the Bloc Quebecois to revise current immigration quotas within 100 days was approved in a non-binding vote in the House of Commons, reported Blacklock’s Reporter.

MPs voted 173 -150 in favour of the Bloc’s motion, with only the Liberals standing against the idea.

“Canadians basically strongly disagree with the immigration policies of what is left of this government,” said Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet.

The motion asked that cabinet meet with premiers “to consult them on their respective integration capacities” and “table in the House within 100 days a plan for revising federal immigration targets in 2024 based on the integration capacity.”

Canada currently has an annual quota of 500,000 immigrants.

“This used to be a Quebec thing,” said Blanchet. “People used to say Quebeckers were against immigration because they were racists. Now people in Toronto are saying they are having problems managing the volume of immigrants.”

The quota is in addition to 227,000 annual permits for temporary foreign workers and 983,000 foreign students.

“We are so focused on numbers and so keen to open everything up that people who came here as asylum seekers are sleeping in the streets of Montreal without housing,” said Blanchet. “This is the most obvious example of the government’s heartless failure.”

Immigration Minister Marc Miller countered there’s no choice but to maintain current quotas.

“The main reason is we need newcomers as much as they need us,” he said. “Immigration is crucial to expand our labour force, to ensure our economy prospers and to guarantee the quality of the social services Canadians depend on. Faced with an aging population, we need qualified and talented newcomers to ensure our future economic prosperity.”

Source: Non-binding Commons vote calls for feds to revise immigration quota

Globe editorial: Canada is an immigration nation

Latest Globe immigration editorial advocating for an increased share of economic immigration, partly to replace needed reductions of international students and temporary workers, in the context of overall levels of one percent of the population, or about 400,000, a reduction of about 20 percent from 2025 target:

But the fact remains that Canada needs immigrants, badly. Statistics Canada reported last week that the total fertility rate has declined to 1.33 children per woman, far below 2.1 replacement rate that ensures a stable population. Without robust immigration, Canada would lack the workers needed to fill labour shortages, and to pay the taxes that sustain social services and pensions.

Other developed countries that do not embrace immigration, from Japan to Poland, are experiencing weak economic growth and relentless population decline. To prevent that, Canada needs to maintain an intake target of about 1 per cent of the existing population annually.

Lastly, economic migration should be the focus of any expansion of overall immigration targets. Ottawa is already moving in that direction, with the economic migration category edging up to a planned 60 per cent of the total in 2026 from 58 per cent in 2022. That proportion should continue to rise, with other categories increasing at a slower pace.

Canada’s history of welcoming newcomers is not just one of this country’s finest characteristics – it is one of our biggest competitive advantages. Measured action now can restore confidence to the immigration system that has served Canada so well for so many years.

Source: Canada is an immigration nation

Yakabuski: Quand la digue du débat sur l’immigration cède

Indeed. Remarkable change:

La digue a cédé. Depuis plusieurs mois, les critiques fusent de toutes parts pour dénoncer une politique fédérale d’immigration hors de contrôle qui contribue à la crise du logement, notamment en raison de la croissance fulgurante du nombre de travailleurs étrangers temporaires et d’étudiants étrangers qui s’installent au pays.

Plusieurs économistes parmi les plus respectés accusent Ottawa de faire fi de la capacité de l’économie canadienne à accueillir un si grand nombre de nouveaux venus sans faire les investissements nécessaires à la construction de nouveaux logements et de nouvelles infrastructures. Bref, de mener une politique d’immigration qui vise à doper la croissance économique — sinon à gagner les votes de certaines clientèles politiques —, mais qui finit plutôt par créer toutes sortes d’effets pervers dont les répercussions néfastes se feront sentir dans les années à venir.

Jusqu’à cette semaine, le premier ministre Justin Trudeau et son ministre de l’Immigration, Marc Miller, répondaient à ces critiques en promettant d’examiner la possibilité d’apporter des modifications somme toute mineures aux programmes d’immigration temporaire. Jamais n’ont-ils manifesté un sentiment d’urgence qui justifie la correction des failles béantes dans ces programmes qui ont mené à l’explosion de cette filière. 

En date du 1er octobre dernier, le Canada comptait plus de 2,5 millions de résidents non permanents, ce qui correspond à une augmentation de plus de 40 % en un an. Leur nombre a certainement augmenté depuis cette date, car rien n’a été fait pour limiter l’octroi des permis de travail et d’études. Cela fait l’affaire des employeurs et des établissements postsecondaires qui, partout au pays, sont devenus accros aux programmes fédéraux d’immigration temporaire, cela au détriment de l’économie canadienne dans son ensemble.

Dans une étude publiée en début de semaine, les économistes Stéfane Marion et Alexandra Ducharme, de la Financière Banque Nationale, prétendent que le Canada fait actuellement face à un « piège démographique » en raison d’un taux de croissance de sa population cinq fois supérieur à la moyenne des pays membres de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE). Leur constat est cinglant : « Présentement, nous ne disposons pas des infrastructures et du stock de capital nécessaires pour absorber la croissance démographique et améliorer notre niveau de vie. »

Une telle situation, typiquement le lot des pays émergents ayant un fort taux de natalité, engendre un cercle vicieux qui mène à l’appauvrissement collectif. Au Canada, notre piège démographique découle d’une politique d’immigration délibérément choisie par le gouvernement Trudeau.

Un ménage s’impose. Il reste à voir si MM. Trudeau et Miller feront preuve de courage politique et redresseront la barre. Mardi, lors d’un déjeuner-causerie devant la Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain, M. Trudeau a dit ne pas avoir l’intention de toucher aux seuils d’immigration permanente. Le pays compte accueillir 500 000 nouveaux résidents permanents en 2025 et dans les années qui suivent. « Ça, c’est le chiffre dont on a besoin pour continuer à appuyer la croissance économique et des opportunités, a-t-il fait valoir. Ce sont surtout des étudiants internationaux et des travailleurs temporaires. Ce sont ces groupes-là qu’il va falloir qu’on mette un peu sous contrôle. »

« Un peu sous contrôle » ? Les économistes de la Banque Nationale estiment que la croissance de la population canadienne devrait être ramenée entre 300 000 et 500 000 personnes par année « si nous voulons échapper au piège démographique ». Or, la population canadienne a augmenté de plus de 1,2 million en 2023. Ce ne sont pas des demi-mesures qui pourront restaurer l’équilibre. Des réformes en profondeur seront nécessaires.

M. Miller songe à serrer la vis à certaines provinces pour que leurs établissements postsecondaires acceptent moins d’étudiants étrangers.

À elle seule, l’Ontario compte plus de la moitié des près de 900 000 étudiants étrangers du pays. Ces derniers sont inscrits non seulement dans les universités et les collèges communautaires de la province, mais aussi dans des centaines d’écoles de formation professionnelle. Certaines de ces écoles sont accusées d’exploiter des étudiants étrangers vulnérables qui cherchent à fuir leur pays d’origine en percevant des droits de scolarité astronomiques sans donner une éducation digne du nom. Mais il ne suffit pas de sévir contre ces « usines à chiots », comme M. Miller les appelle. La vaste majorité des étudiants étrangers au Canada sont inscrits à l’université ou à un collège d’enseignement technique, et il faudrait aussi y réduire leur nombre.

Or, une diminution du nombre d’étudiants étrangers risquerait de plonger la plupart des établissements postsecondaires du pays dans une crise financière pouvant menacer leur survie. C’est surtout le cas en Ontario, où le gouvernement conservateur de Doug Ford a instauré un gel des droits de scolarité en 2019. Les établissements postsecondaires de la province se sont tournés massivement depuis vers les étudiants étrangers, dont les droits de scolarité s’élèvent à plusieurs fois ceux payés par les étudiants canadiens.

Et que faire du nombre grandissant de travailleurs étrangers temporaires ? À en juger par le silence de M. Miller à ce sujet, on dirait que le ministre n’est pas pressé de s’y attaquer. Or, la promesse faite cette semaine par Pierre Poilievre de rééquilibrer les seuils d’immigration en fonction de la construction de logements change la donne politique. Le chef conservateur avait jusque-là soigneusement évité d’aborder la question de l’immigration dans ses discours sur la crise du logement.

Son changement de cap signale le début d’un débat politique sur l’immigration auquel les Canadiens hors Québec sont peu habitués tellement le consensus sur la question semblait inébranlable. Mais les libéraux ont permis à l’eau de monter. Et la digue ne tient plus.

Source: Quand la digue du débat sur l’immigration cède

Yakabuski: The Trudeau Liberals created a ‘population trap’ that is making us poorer

Further piling on but correct assessment regarding the political difficulties in changing/reversing course:

Reducing immigration numbers will not be easy. Businesses and postsecondary institutions will bellyache and the Liberals risk alienating some progressive and ethnic voters. Paradoxically, it could cause short-term economic pain by temporarily reducing domestic consumption.

But cutting immigration is no longer an option that Mr. Miller can just “consider.” It must be his top priority.

Source: The Trudeau Liberals created a ‘population trap’ that is making us poorer

And from the Globe Editorial:

Another mistake being made in Canada is the Liberals’ failure to address the immigration issue. The government’s refusal to take obvious steps to end even the worst abuses of the student visa program, for instance, risks harming Canadians’ support for immigration.

Canadians should take note of how ignoring immigration issues has worked out south of the border. Decades of incompetence by both Republican and Democratic administrations has led to the point where the two sides cannot reach a bipartisan solution. That impasse has opened American voters to the idea of a radical fix, and has allowed Mr. Trump to win support for his inhumane threat to put illegal immigrants in concentration camps.

Source: The U.S. may be on the brink, but no democracy can be taken for granted

Pierre Poilievre pledges to tie immigration levels to homebuilding – Financial Post

Given current housing starts, less than 250,000, and for illustrative purposes, 3 persons per housing unit, this would mean a total of 750,000 permanent and temporary residents, less than half the current amount.

An easy understandable slogan but, like so many by all parties, more complex than presented given the various interested groups and the hard decisions around trade-offs:

The Conservative politician who’s trying to take down Justin Trudeau said that if he’s elected, he would link Canada’s immigration levels to the number of homes being built.

Pierre Poilievre took aim Friday at Trudeau’s housing minister, Sean Fraser, arguing that when Fraser was immigration minister, he oversaw soaring numbers of new arrivals without ensuring the country could properly accommodate them.

“We need to make a link between the number of homes built and the number of people we invite as new Canadians,” Poilievre said, speaking at a news conference in Winnipeg, Manitoba.He said his Conservative Party “will get back to an approach of immigration that invites a number of people that we can house, employ and care for in our health-care system.” He cited data showing that Canada is now completing fewer homes than it did 50 years earlier, when its population was around 22 million. It’s close to 41 million today

There were 219,942 new homes completed in Canada in 2022, the most recent year for which complete data is available, compared with 232,227 in 1972, when the country was going through a construction boom.

Poilievre did not say whether he would roll back Canada’s permanent resident target or curb the number of temporary newcomers, such as foreign students. In the past, he has declined to say that he would scale back immigration.

Canada accepted about 455,000 new permanent residents in the 12-month period to Oct. 1 while bringing in more than 800,000 non-permanent residents, a category that includes temporary workers, students and refugees. Canada’s population growth rate of 3.2 per cent means it’s growing faster than any Group of Seven nation, China or India.

Many economists have also criticized the government for failing to ensure services have kept pace with Canada’s immigration targets.

Trudeau has fallen far behind Poilievre in public polling, and the high cost of housing is likely part of the explanation. His government has unveiled several measures meant to boost home construction, and they’ve pledged to examine reforms to programs that allow temporary immigrants.

The prime minister told reporters in Guelph, Ont., on Jan. 12 that there’s no “magic solution” to the housing shortage and touted his government’s program to transfer millions of dollars to cities that speed up development approvals.

“Construction workers and availability of labour is a challenge we’re facing, which is why we continue to have ambitious immigration targets,” he said.

Source: Pierre Poilievre pledges to tie immigration levels to homebuilding – Financial Post

Ottawa’s delayed strategy on foreign students

Even the Star is critical:

Foreign students didn’t create the country’s current housing shortage. Blame should also not fall on the shoulders of temporary foreign workers, refugee claimants or new immigrants to this country.

Blame rightly falls to governments that failed to see the flashing warning signs of a housing shortage for years and a federal government that has put out the welcome mat to new arrivals and essentially had them sleep on the floor.

But the mushrooming number of international students pouring into this country has been a contributing factor to our housing woes and from a political perspective, they had become a problem for the federal Liberals. If potential voters saw them as a problem, the Liberal had to act. But they had to act carefully so as not to appear to be scapegoating others for their policy failures.

So first steps to curb their numbers are welcome. If the Liberals can sell the changes as a way to protect the well-being of future students, so much the better from a political standpoint. Still, it falls into the category of a move that was long overdue, a tiny fix to a problem long ignored.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller is vowing to crack down on the exploitative practice of luring students here with promises of backdoor permanent resident status. But he cannot move too aggressively, mindful of the fact that international students are a rich vein of revenue for Canadian universities. Here, there must be pressure on universities and colleges to properly support the students who contribute so much to their bottom line.

International students contribute $22 billion annually to this country’s economy and supporting an estimated 200,000 Canadian jobs. He also cannot price a post-secondary education out of reach of students of limited means and make a Canadian degree attainable only to the elite.

Under his revised measures, students will need to show they have at least $20,635 to cover living expenses in this country, in addition to what they need to cover a year’s tuition and travel costs. That’s a significant hike from the current threshold of $10,000, a figure untethered to reality which has not been revised upward for two decades. Miller also plans to reduce the number of hours international students can spend doing paid work, allowing the 40-hour limit to continue only until the end of April, 2024 at which time it is likely to be cut to 30 hours or less. The minister quite rightly argues that working 40 hours per week while studying here is “untenable.”

He also says he will crack down on a system which he likened to the diploma equivalent of “puppy mills” in which diplomas are churned out without providing a legitimate student experience and profit is made on selling “backdoor” entry points to permanent Canadian residence. He’s right. But it must be noted that this has been allowed to fester under the Liberal watch.

Immigration levels hit record highs under the Liberals. Miller has recently announced a freeze on that level beginning in 2026, but his government will welcome 485,000 permanent residents in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. When the Liberals were elected in 2015, the immigration intake was set at 265,000 per year. Canada’s population hit 40 million last summer, part of the largest year-over-year percentage increase in population in 66 years, with the country on a path to double its population in 25 years. The 2.2 million non-permanent residents living in this country on July 1, 2023, comprised largely of temporary workers and international students, was up 46 per cent over the previous year.

According to documents cited by the Globe and Mail, the government anticipated 949,000 foreign student applicants this year, a number expected to rise to about 1.4 million by 2027.

Freezing immigration levels and limiting the number of international students will help ease the pressure on housing, although those who are struggling with soaring rents or are unable to buy a home are unlikely to see the benefits before the next election. The only solution is to expedite the construction of housing and the Liberals have – again belatedly – begun to act on that. Other measures, while welcome, are really just tinkering on the edges.

Source: Ottawa’s delayed strategy on foreign students

Ex-BoC boss David Dodge: We need economic strategy focused on investment, not consumption

As always, thoughtful analysis, expressed clearly and without ambiguity, nailing the main failing of the government’s immigration approach in terms of improving productivity:

When I ask Mr. Dodge if Canadian businesses habitually rely too heavily on hiring when they need to increase their capacity, rather than investing in more machinery, equipment and technology, he concurs. What’s more, he believes Ottawa’s pursuit of historically high immigration levels is exacerbating this problem – “filling every hole that’s there, rather than allowing the market to work.”

That not only provides a disincentive to invest and innovate, he suggests, but it props up our least-productive companies.

“The last thing we want is a bunch of low-productivity businesses hanging on because we provide them cheap labour. That’s not the way we’re going to raise national income.”

Source: Ex-BoC boss David Dodge: We need economic strategy focused on investment, not consumption

Australia to halve immigration intake, toughen English test for students – BBC.com

Given that the Canadian immigration system is similarly broken – lack of integrated planning bt levels and impacts, ongoing service delivery issues, focus on pop growth rather than per capita GDP etc – Canada might wish to consider a more dramatic fundamental review and changes than announced to date:

The Australian government says it will halve the migration intake within two years in an attempt to fix the country’s “broken” immigration system.

It aims to slash the annual intake to 250,000 – roughly in line with pre-pandemic levels – by June 2025.

Visa rules for international students and low-skilled workers will also be tightened under the new plan.

Migration has climbed to record levels in Australia, adding pressure to housing and infrastructure woes.

But there remains a shortage of skilled workers, and the country struggles to attract them.

Unveiling a new 10-year immigration strategy at a media briefing on Monday, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said the migration system had been left “in tatters” by the previous government.

A review earlier this year found the system was “badly broken” – unnecessarily complex, slow and inefficient – and in need of “major reform”.

A record 510,000 people came to Australia in the year to June 2023, but the minister said her government would “bring numbers back under control” and reduce the annual migration intake by around 50%.

Among the new measures are tougher minimum English-language requirements for international students, and more scrutiny of those applying for a second visa – they must prove that any further study would advance their academic aspirations or their careers. There are some 650,000 foreign students in Australia, with many of them on their second visa, according to official data.

The visa pathways for migrants with “specialist” or “essential” skills – like highly-skilled tech workers or care workers – have also been improved to offer better prospects of permanent residency.

The new policies will attract more of the workers Australia needs and help reduce the risk of exploitation for those who live, work and study in the country, Ms O’Neil said.

Opposition migration spokesman Dan Tehan has said that the government was too slow to adjust migration policies designed to help Australia recover from the pandemic.

“The horse has bolted when it comes to migration and the government not only cannot catch it but cannot find it,” he said at the weekend.

The Labor government’s popularity has dwindled since its election last year, and in recent weeks it has been under pressure from some quarters to temporarily reduce migration to help ease Australia’s housing crisis.

However others, like the Business Council of Australia, have said migrants are being used as a scapegoat for a lack of investment in affordable housing and decades of poor housing policy.

Source: Australia to halve immigration intake, toughen English test for students – BBC.com

For a more in-depth but more gentle take:

The government says these changes are the “biggest reforms in a generation”. It’s been reported the reforms will “dramatically cut”“ the immigration intake. But don’t be fooled by the hyperbole.

Instead of thinking of the strategy as a complete overhaul, the reforms are a number of long overdue remedies dealing with migrant worker exploitation, misuse of international student visas and an overly complex and inefficient bureaucracy.

The intake cuts are overstated and will largely be the result of a natural evening out of migration patterns in the post-pandemic world. Even the Department of Immigration acknowledges the spike in arrivals is “temporary”, a phenomenon labelled as “the catch-up effect” by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. If the current circumstances are only transitory, one wonders why the government is so keen to cut numbers.

It is important to look at how the department plans to reform immigration policy.

The policy document is 100 pages with much detail on the minutiae of immigration procedures. The broad areas covered are revising temporary skilled migration, cracking down on alleged rorting of the international education system, replacing annual migration plans with longer-term forecasting and getting the states and territories, which bear most of the resettling costs, more involved.

Source: The government is bringing immigration back to ‘normal levels’ but cuts are not as dramatic as they seem – The Conversation