Proof-of-citizenship applications surge, estimated wait time is almost 3 years

2026/09/15 Leave a comment

So the number after less than one year is already greater than the five-year estimate by PBO and IRGC. As Kurland notes, “They dropped the ball big time:”

Both the wait times and the number of people waiting for a decision regarding their proof-of-citizenship application has surged exponentially since Bill C-3 came into effect, according to new data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

More than 136,000 people are awaiting a decision, with estimated wait times now more than 33 months. They include people eligible for citizenship under the amended rules and those who are first-generation descendants. In the case of applications from outside Canada or the United States, the estimated wait time could take an additional three or four months.

The wait time has increased by eight months from this August, when it was estimated to be 25 months. The number of applications has also increased by 14,000.

Bill C-3, which came into effect in December 2025, amended the Citizenship Act to end the first-generation limit on citizenship by descent, meaning Canadians born outside the country can also pass their citizenship to their children who are born outside the country. It also expanded eligibility to people born before Dec. 15, 2025, if they can prove they’re directly descended from a Canadian citizen, and have verifiable documents showing that the citizenship was passed down – even if that ancestor left the country years ago.

Half of applications come from U.S.

According to data provided by the IRCC in August, more than 6,100 people have obtained proof of citizenship under these new rules since late 2025.

As of May 31, 51 per cent of all approved citizenship applications under the new eligibility criteria came from people born in the U.S., according to data provided by the IRCC.

One immigration lawyer says the new numbers are “staggering” and “far beyond the capacity of IRCC” to process in a reasonable timeframe.

Kyle Hyndman, an immigration lawyer from Victoria, B.C., told CTVNews.ca on Thursday, that a “significant” number of applications are coming from the south of the border.

“Both what’s happening in the U.S. politically – and also news coverage of the Canadian citizenship situation in the U.S. – have both spurred a lot of interest,” Hyndman said.

“That’s certainly part of the surge, and that’s put all kinds of pressure on every stage in this process,” he said.

…‘A predictable uptake’

Christine Beltempo, the current chair of the Canadian Bar Association National Immigration Law Section and a lawyer with the national law firm McCarthy Tétrault, told CTVNews.ca on Friday that she’s seeing many applications coming in from other countries besides the U.S., like Mexico.

“You’re creating additional bureaucracy for some people who actually are presumably, according to the new law, Canadian citizens,” she said, referring to people from countries like Mexico, who need a visa application to enter Canada, unless they get their citizenship certificate.

Outside of the U.S., the most approved applications are from Mexico, Bolivia, the United Kingdom and its territories, China, India, Bolivia, France, Australia and Italy, according to the IRCC’s data.

Beltempo called the surge in processing times “a predictable uptake,” following the amendment to Bill C-3, which is leading to “frustration” among applicants who were looking forward to this legislative change.

“What we’re seeing is disappointment, frustration, mixed emotions and certainly people finding it very difficult to plan their lives and their futures in Canada, without having a predictable amount of time before which they can actually get their documentation,” she said.

Beltempo added that the IRCC is facing backlogs in other departments as well, which needs to be examined by the federal government. She says it’s concerning for associations like the Canadian Bar Association, in terms of access to justice and other programs.

“I think it’s important to remind the public that this change came as a result of a court finding that the previous law was unconstitutional.”

‘When you’re Canadian, you have the right to be here’

Before Bill C-3 was amended, Canadian citizenship by descent was limited to first-generation individuals, born or adopted outside the country by a Canadian citizen. That restriction was subsequently struck down in a 2023 ruling by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, which found it unconstitutional.

Richard Kurland, an immigration lawyer and policy analyst from Vancouver, told CTVNews.ca Friday, that the sudden uptick in the number of applications and the increase in estimated wait times is a combination of the political tension between Canada and the U.S., in addition to the Bill C-3 amendment.

“They certainly drop the ball in failing to resource the citizenship people to process, resulting in three years and longer processing times,” Richard Kurland said. “When you’re Canadian, you have the right to be here.”

Kurland said despite people having a claim to Canadian citizenship, the province they enter cannot allow them access to health care, public education or employment without the paperwork from the IRCC.

“There’s no way that the (federal) government could not know that the inventories would become bloated (and) processing times would go through the ceiling,” he said.

“They dropped the ball big time.”

Meanwhile, multiple factors are to blame for an increase in the volume of applications outside of Bill C-3, an IRCC spokesperson told CTVNews.ca in a statement on Friday.

“Complex cases often require substantial documentary evidence and additional verification, which can extend timelines,” the spokesperson wrote. 

“The current estimate should be understood in that context, rather than as a direct comparison with historical figures that were calculated using different inventories or methodologies.”

Source: Proof-of-citizenship applications surge, estimated wait time is almost 3 years

Filed under C-3, Citizenship Tagged with , ,

Critics see Canada’s immigration minister as weak and invisible a year into her mandate. But is she doing exactly what Mark Carney wants?

2026/06/24 Leave a comment

Interesting take:

If Prime Minister Mark Carney wanted a low-key minister to handle the Liberals’ immigration mess and stay out of the headlines, he may have found the right person in Lena Metlege Diab.

Whether or not by design, Immigration Minister Diab, unlike her predecessors, has maintained a low profile. That’s despite relentless attacks by the opposition Conservatives over her invisibility and competence in the high-stakes portfolio.

The MP from Nova Scotia has been lambasted by critics for relying on bureaucrats to answer questions at committee, and being unclear in communicating policies and less responsive than her predecessors.

In the year and a bit since she was tapped by Carney to lead the file, Diab seems to have delivered what the prime minister has asked her to do in returning overall immigration to more “sustainable levels” — at least in terms of slashing the immigrant population.

A Parliamentary Budget Officer report this year projected the share of non-permanent residents will fall under five per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2027, aligning with the government target.

But the system the Nova Scotia MP inherited is still in flux, rife with uncertainty, backlogs and long processing times — issues that experts say need to be urgently addressed to restore stability and faith in Canadian immigration.

Diab ‘turns down political heat’

“Her mandate certainly was to turn down the political heat on immigration, and I would say that she’s done that successfully,” said Victoria-based immigration lawyer Kyle Hyndman. 

“A lot of the immigration conversation has got really focused on numbers. We’re not talking about bushels of soya beans here. We’re talking about people who are very different in terms of what they bring to Canada and in terms of what they need. This conversation about reaching a sustainable level of immigration is only half of the question.”

And the falling numbers of temporary residents are what Diab has wanted to register with Canadians….

University of Toronto political science professor Phil Triadafilopoulos said Canada’s immigration system is still in transition, rolling back a messy expansion under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, especially after the pandemic. And the repair can only be done in “a piecemeal way,” he added.

He said the issues of temporary residents have built up ever since Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s time, and exploded in 2022 and ‘23 as politicians caved to the demands of colleges and universities to recruit foreign students to offset government funding cuts, as well as the push by businesses seeking easy access to foreign labour.

“The expectation is that most people will leave, but we know from experience that a large number of people will not leave and will overstay and live in a more precarious way,” said Triadafilopoulos.

To Carney, he added, Diab seemed to be the right person to keep immigration issues out of the news cycle because the PM needed someone to do things quietly and not want to be in the news all the time, to “decompress immigration.” His sense is that the Prime Minister’s Office is now steering the boat and trying to return the Immigration Department to an operation led by civil servants…

Source: Critics see Canada’s immigration minister as weak and invisible a year into her mandate. But is she doing exactly what Mark Carney wants?

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Immigration applicants to Canada face rising refusal rates, data reveals — and critics say the pressure to reduce a backlog may be a factor

2025/08/13 Leave a comment

Might be but hard to substantiate without more information:

Immigration applications in almost all permanent and temporary resident categories have seen higher refusals since 2023, according to the latest federal government data.

The soaring rejection rates in some cases such as study and postgraduation work permits are primarily the result of changing eligibility and policies. But critics are raising concerns that this has also been driven by the pressure to render decisions quickly and haphazardly to reduce an immigration backlog.

Ottawa has reduced the annual intake of both permanent and temporary residents for 2025, 2026 and 2027, and cut 3,300 positions in the Immigration Department. But the number of people applying to come to Canada has not come down.

As of June 30, there were 2,189,500 applications in process in the system — up from 1,976,700 in March — including 842,800 that have been in the queue longer than the department’s own service standards.

“They have set very aggressive targets for reducing both permanent and temporary immigration,” said Vancouver immigration lawyer Kyle Hyndman of the immigration cutbacks. “I don’t see how they can meet those targets in the short run without some pretty dramatic actions.”

Critics say they are seeing more solid applications being tossed away, and refusals using boilerplate language have led to same applicants re-applying over and over, as well as court appeals and litigation. It has contributed to the public losing faith in the immigration system, say both experts and applicants.

“I’m afraid to ask for another visitor visa to Canada again,” said Croatian Nikola Maricic, who was refused twice this year in seeking to attend a Qigong health practitioner conference in Vancouver, even though he had visited Toronto previously. “I have lost my confidence in the Canadian visa process.”

According to Immigration Department data, the refusal rates for all four permanent resident categories have crept up in the first five months of 2025: Economic class; family class; humanitarian and compassionate class of those otherwise not eligible for any program; and refugees with protected status and families.

However, the most significant increases in refusals over the last two years came in the temporary resident categories, with rejection rates for study permits rising to 65.4 per cent from 40.5 per cent; visitor visas to 50 per cent from 39 per cent; postgraduation work permits to 24.6 per cent from 12.8 per cent; work permit extension to 10.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent; and work permits for spouses of study and work permit holders to 52.3 per cent from 25.2 per cent. (Study permit extension and work permit refusals have remained steady.)

Experts say permanent residence applications under the economic class have the lowest refusal rates because officials can easily manipulate the number of applications in the system by adjusting the qualifying scores to prevent backlog from building up.

The higher refusal rate in the family class likely comes from migrants running out of options who may resort to marrying a Canadian for permanent residence.

Toronto immigration lawyer Mario Bellissimo said the current 40 per cent refusal rate for permanent residence under humanitarian grounds is considered low, compared to 57 per cent before COVID. That’s because Ottawa was more generous in granting permanent status during the pandemic to those who otherwise would not qualify under other immigration categories.

He expects the refusal rate for the humanitarian class will keep rising because there are fewer permanent residence spots for international students and foreign workers with expiring temporary permits, and so seeking leniency on humanitarian grounds becomes their last shot.

“A lot of things drive the refusals and the longer the backlog, the higher the refusal rate historically,” he noted. “Every time your processing capacity is flooded, your time to spend on applications that merit a positive decision becomes clouded and … higher chances of missing key points on good applicants. All of this becomes part of the issue.”…

Toronto lawyer Chantal Desloges believes the adoption of advanced analytics and automation in immigration application processing has contributed to the rising refusals because officers, under time pressure, may overrely on what red flags are raised by AI when making decisions.

Her client Victoria Joumaa in Halifax is the legal guardian of three cousins in Lebanon, who were twice refused visitor visas to Canada. In the refusal letters, the officer ignored the request for temporary resident permits to be issued to the three kids on humanitarian grounds as an alternative. Their appeal before the Federal Court has recently been settled and the case was sent back for a new decision.

“The department keeps telling us they are not using automated decision-making and all they’re doing is organizing this information and presenting it to give an officer a snapshot to make it easier to decide more quickly,” said Desloges. “That may be true, but where it’s breaking down is whoever is making the decision is not reading the file.”

The Immigration Department said no final decisions are made by artificial intelligence and its tools do not refuse or recommend refusing applications….

Source: Immigration applicants to Canada face rising refusal rates, data reveals — and critics say the pressure to reduce a backlog may be a factor

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