Canadian universities see international students’ enrolment down 45 per cent after rule change. ‘The system is just hanging on’

Would be nice if IRCC would provide a colleges/university breakdown in its level data series:

Canadian universities are expected to see international student enrolment dropping by at least 45 per cent from last year, a more drastic decline than the 35 per cent intended cut in study permit applications announced by the federal government earlier this year.

Although the measures introduced by Ottawa were meant primarily to rein in the runaway growth of study permit holders in the college sector, Universities Canada said the early numbers from its members don’t even come close to the targeted ceiling.

With Ottawa’s consultation underway to set its 2025 immigration levels, including targets for international students, the advocacy group representing 97 universities across Canada is pleading with the government not to impose further cuts to study permit quotas or make additional changes to the rules of the post-graduation work permits.

“The system is really just hanging on,” Universities Canada president and CEO Gabriel Miller said in an interview Thursday. “If it takes another blow in the next few weeks, it could be fatal.”…

Source: Canadian universities see international students’ enrolment down 45 per cent after rule change. ‘The system is just hanging on’

These international students are still waiting for study permits from Canada with just two weeks before classes begin

Not great:

…Following changes announced by the federal government in January to rein in the number of international students, there has been an overall increase in student visa backlogs and processing times due to the confusion over how study permit quotas would be allocated and the lack of infrastructure for provinces to issue the newly required attestation letter for applicants. 

The wait times to get a decision for international applicants shot up from nine weeks in January to a peak of 15 weeks in May; processing times for those applying from inside Canada went from four weeks to 14 weeks in June and now 11 weeks, according to data from ApplyBoard, an online marketplace for learning institutions and international students.

The Immigration Department has stopped publishing the overall outside Canada wait times in favour of providing the information based on the country where an application is processed. Currently, the estimated processing time for China is eight weeks….

Source: These international students are still waiting for study permits from Canada with just two weeks before classes begin

Canada to grant a select group of international students permanent residence upon graduation with pilot program

Another pilot that will create further expectations:

Ottawa is launching a new pilot program to attract and retain Francophone international students, providing them with a direct pathway for permanent residency in Canada after graduation.

The initiative is touted as a flagship measure of the new Francophone immigration strategy meant to boost the French-speaking population outside of Quebec, which has declined since 1971 from 6.1 per cent of the Canadian population outside the province to just 3.5 per cent today, threatening the country’s bilingual national identity.

Source: Canada to grant a select group of international students permanent residence upon graduation with pilot program


Desai: Canada’s poor relations with India underscore short-term thinking and failures

Good commentary on Canada-India relations and international students:

Short-sightedness on student visas 

Relations have also been strained over international students in Canada – the majority of whom come from India. 

Earlier this year, the Indian High Commissioner to Canada warned that Indian students granted visas to study in Canada are often “duped” by post-secondary institutions, sometimes with tragic consequences

Further, the CBC found that the types of programs to which foreign students are being steered do not align with our labour market needs. 

This has foundational roots in Canada’s inability to co-ordinate policies at all levels of government and with other key stakeholders. 

International students have historically buoyed Canada’s economy. Their higher fees solidified the balance sheets of many post-secondary institutions and they filled labour market needs, especially in value-add roles. 

The 2008 decision allowing international students to apply for permanent residency was rational, given Canada’s demographic challenges in the context of a highly competitive global economy for top talent.

But, misalignment between the provincial and federal governments has led to disastrous results. 

The provinces – responsible for accrediting post-secondary institutions – saw the short-term economic benefits of international students and began rubber-stamping the approval of questionable schools. This essentially created a loophole for young foreigners to access Canadian permanent residency. 

The federal government – responsible for immigration – did not study the implications of these provincial decisions and aggressively increased their target numbers, especially for student visas, despite the lack of options for both quality education and short-term housing, which created social friction. 

The ongoing lack of alignment to long-term labour market needs puts the broader system and our economy at risk. 

These diplomatic, immigration and intergovernmental policy failures have had implications for Canadian businesses looking to diversify their export markets, especially to India which represents a large and growing market with increasing demand for our goods and services. 

They have also impacted the number of Indians considering emigrating, especially those whom Canada and other countries dependent on immigration for economic growth most covet – students, entrepreneurs and professionals. …

Source: Canada’s poor relations with India underscore short-term thinking and failures

Effect of the international student cap by country

Further to my earlier analysis of the overall effect on post-secondary study permits below, I have also done an analysis of the effect by country on study permit applications and study permit issued.

For the country analysis, the public tables do not have a breakdown by study level, so the tables below include all levels (post-secondary study permits form 80 percent).

Starting with applications (finalized applications). Despite an overall decline quarter to quarter, there is considerable variation among source countries with a number of countries showing an increase 2024 to 2023 quarter. This may reflect some processing time lags:

In contrast, study permits issued has an overall consistent pattern of decrease in study permits among all countries save Saudi Arabia. The most striking decline is India, almost 100 percent, but Nigeria declined by over 50 percent, with Philippines and Turkey close behind. The greater reduction of Indian students likely reflects some of the negative stories by or about Indian students and their frustrations and struggles, all covered in Indian as well as Canadian media.

In short, the implementation of the cap has resulted in an overall decline in the number of applications and study permits issued, and thus is achieving the policy and program goal (web interest in getting a study permit has also declined).

International Students Numbers Starting to Decline

Given some of the simplistic analysis of the number of study permits issued in a number of publications, I thought the following table would be instructive. There is always a time lag in policy implementation and the caps on international students were introduced in January of this year as shown in the table below.

So while there was a slight increase for the first half of this year, the quarterly number highlights the shift: Q1 showed a year-to-year increase of 34.3 percent whereas Q2 showed a decrease of 21.4 percent.

So a plea to journalists writing about international students and other immigration numbers, look at both the totals and trends for a more accurate picture. Always happy to respond to any questions.

Fake letter leaves Nigerian international student without status, asked to leave Canada

Yet another example of unscrupulous consultants and lack of real time due diligence. Appears that about 2.4 percent of all applications include fraudulent letters:

The new letter of acceptance verification process began on Dec. 1, 2023. Before it began, the department acknowledged many students “sincerely” came to Canada to study, but some who knew about the fake letters had “no intent” of studying.

Between that day and July 1, IRCC said it has caught 9,175 letters that were never issued by a Canadian school.

Those 9,175 letters were out of a total of 361,718 letters checked by IRCC and the schools.

These letters “may be an indicator of fraud,” IRCC wrote in a statement, but each one will need to be checked by an officer.

The department declined to make anyone available for an interview, and agreed to answer questions only by email.

It said it is “focused on identifying culprits, not penalizing victims” of fraud.

In response to questions about Akinlade’s case and why IRCC believes she knew about the fake letter, IRCC pointed back to its officer’s decision based on the “balance of probabilities.”

“Applicants are responsible for all the information on their application,” IRCC wrote, noting that Akinlade had an opportunity to address the officer’s concerns.

Onus on the applicant

Sandhu said it’s not clear to her exactly why IRCC believes Akinlade knew the letter was fake.

“If we’re going off of hunches, I feel that most officers can be very skeptical when it comes to applicants that claim they were victims of a rogue agent.”

Sandhu acknowledged that Canadian immigration rules put the onus for everything in the application on the applicant.

“Even though you may have used an agent, you are still supposed to be aware of everything,” she said.

Akinlade said she has learned a “lesson” about finding a reliable agent to help her, but she believes if IRCC looks again at her case it will find she was not complicit in the fake letter.

Her lawyer is submitting her humanitarian application to IRCC in the coming weeks but the application does not give her any right to stay in the country, and it is not clear how many months it could take to process.

“I really want to be investigated,” she said, adding that the whole experience has been “traumatic” for her family.

“This is not something I pray for my enemy to experience.”

Source: Fake letter leaves Nigerian international student without status, asked to leave Canada

Canadians increasingly divided on immigration, government research shows

Confirms other surveys. Karas is editorialized by adding DEI concerns to the mix as no such question was asked in the survey (https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2024/ircc/Ci4-183-1-2024-eng.pdf):

Canadians are becoming increasingly divided on the federal government’s current immigration targets, with over a third now saying we’re taking in “too many” people from other countries.

The Department of Immigration requested polling agency Ipsos conduct a national survey on its current immigration quotas. 

“Many participants felt that the targets set for the next three years, which were presented to them, were too high,” reads the survey. “They could not fathom how cities, that are already receiving high volumes of immigrants and where infrastructure is already under great strain, could accommodate the proposed targets.”

The survey cost $295,428 and included 3,000 people canvassed with two surveys and 14 focus groups.

When asked if they thought that immigration has a positive effect on their city or town, just over half, 55% agreed, while 22% said the effect has been negative. 

The results were similar when broken down provincially, with 58% saying that the immigration has had a positive effect on their province, compared to 24% who disagreed. 

Asked if immigration had a net “negative effect” on their province, 41% of Ontarians surveyed said yes, while a third of Prince Edward Islanders, 33%, and 27% of Albertans saw immigration as a net negative.

Only 48% of respondents felt that the current targets were “about the right number,” while a little over a third, 35%, said it was ‘too many.’ 

Another small cohort of 12% said that “too few” immigrants are coming to Canada. 

The “too many” sentiment was felt highest in Alberta at 52%, followed closely by Nova Scotia and Ontario at 51% and 49%, respectively.

On the national level, 63% said immigration has a positive effect and 23% said it’s negative. 

This shows the erosion of a long-held immigration consensus in Canada, one expert says.

“For the first time in recent history, support for immigration has eroded steadily amongst the public,” immigration lawyer Sergio Karas told True North.

“There are a multiplicity of reasons why this is happening. Still, the main issues are the cost of living, housing, competition for good jobs, and the general perception that the recent cohorts of immigrants do not contribute to the economy in the same way that previous generations have.”

The immigration department said the “broad sentiment” indicates support for immigration generally but with the caveat of “not right now” or “how are we going to make this work?”

Participants also expressed “strong appeals for reducing the barriers that prevent experienced newcomers from practicing in their fields of expertise,” citing nurses, teachers and skilled labourers as necessary examples. 

However, “reactions to prioritizing those with business skills were more mixed.” 

On the issue of family and immigration, respondents generally agreed on “setting a higher target for sponsoring spouses and partners, who are likely to be working-age, and a lower target for sponsoring parents and grandparents, who might put a strain on the healthcare system rather than contribute to the economy.”

Several participants suggested expediting immigration applications for healthier parents and grandparents over “frailer ones.”

“There is also resentment, especially from immigrants who have been in Canada for many years, that the current crop of newcomers is far more interested in receiving government benefits, and that their language and work skills are not up to par,” said Karas. “This seems to be especially acute about the large number of refugees that Canada has admitted.”

According to the department’s data, few participants believed that Canada was doing the “right thing” by providing asylum to large numbers of refugees. 

While some respondents recognized the “need to assist,” they were also concerned about Canada’s ability to “realistically support population growth given the current strains on public infrastructure.”

Karas said that a further reason for Canadians’ shifting opinion of immigration is the notion that the government is “admitting anyone” without properly vetting them for their skills, language ability and security. 

“While this is not always true, the public is sensitive to how immigrants from non-Western countries are changing the face of Canada,” said Karas. 

“The public concern is that the changes are too rapid and too deep and that immigrants should do more to adapt to existing customs, rather than the public being obligated to adapt to them. Current policies of  Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion have exacerbated that perception as organizations show a preference for EDI hires rather than using a merit system.”

Source: Canadians increasingly divided on immigration, government research shows

Vancouver’s Langara College among those bracing for drastic plunge in foreign students

The impacts of the international student cap being felt:

…At Langara College, president Burns said in her message to faculty that while foreign student applications are down 79 per cent for the January term, they are also down nine per cent for the fall term, which begins in just six weeks.

Burns attributed the declines to several factors.

They include Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s promise in January to decrease the number of study visas it hands out by 35 per cent this year compared to last.

The B.C. government has also been making reforms — including instituting a new requirement that no more than 30 per cent of students at public post-secondary schools can be foreign students. There are 217,000 foreign students in the province’s post-secondary institutions.

This year both the federal and B.C. governments are expressing the need to temper the record volume of foreign students because of the impact on runaway housing costs, particularly rents, as well as on infrastructure and social services, such as health care.

On a national level, there are mixed signals about the pace at which foreign students are entering Canada.

Last year the country had about 1.1 million foreign students, a jump of three times from when Justin Trudeau was elected in 2015.

Despite Miller pledging to cap study visa approvals at 360,000 for this year, immigration department data shows it issued more study visas in the first five months of this year than it did in the first five months of last year, which broke records.

According to numbers from the immigration department, Canada has handed out 217,000 international study permits in the first five months of 2024. In the same period in 2023, 200,000 were handed out.

In B.C., however, study visa numbers are slightly reduced. In the first five months of 2024 the immigration department has issued 40,000 visas to those who say they will study in B.C. That’s down from about 45,000 in the same period last year.

In response to Postmedia’s questions, the immigration department said via email: “It is premature to claim the cap isn’t working.”

The ministry noted the cap doesn’t apply to students who apply to extend their studies from within the country, nor to those attending kindergarten-to-Grade 12 programs. It also said it expected visa approvals will go down in the months of August and September.

Andrew Griffith, a former immigration department director who now writes independently about migration, says he believes overall foreign student numbers will begin broadly declining soon.

A crucial government data table, he says, reveals that the volume of people around the world inquiring on the immigration department’s website about getting a Canadian study visa is down 26 per cent this year compared to last.

For instance, there were far fewer inquiries about obtaining a Canadian study visa in June of this year: 68,000  compared to 110,000 in June of 2023….

Source: Vancouver’s Langara College among those bracing for drastic plunge in foreign students

This international student with mental disorders took 9 years to get a degree and was refused a work permit. Here’s why he’s challenging Canada’s rules

While I feel for the person and his family, hard to see how he would be likely to contribute economically. Perhaps on H&C grounds. Immigration essentially is about discrimination, who gets in, who does not, and this strikes me as legitimate with respect to the PGWP:

Growing up in Nigeria, Izaka Jefferson Eugene-Akhere was bullied and called “fat kid,” “Michelin man” and “Big Show.”

Even his father and uncles would make fun of him and joked his breasts were so big that he needed a bra. People just thought he was lazy and attributed that to his binge-eating and binge-watching TV; no one recognized his mental disorders.

Eugene-Akhere would hide in his bedroom and skip classes, letting his grades slip, so he wouldn’t stand out any more than he had to due to his size.

In 2012, the then 18-year-old was hoping to start fresh in Canada when his parents enrolled him in Columbia International College, a private school in Hamilton, to continue his education. After finishing one year of high school here, he started his undergraduate study in business at York University, also as an international student.

But his anxiety and depression continued to haunt him. After twice having his studies suspended by York due to his poor attendance and grades, Eugene-Akhere finally graduated in June 2022. He subsequently applied for a postgraduation work permit, which was refused last November.

Despite his reluctance to attract attention, Eugene-Akhere has put himself in the spotlight by challenging the eligibility criteria of the postgraduation work permit. He claims that requiring an applicant to have studied full time discriminates against disabled students and violates their equality rights under the Charter.

To qualify for a postgraduation work permit, an international student must complete a study program from an authorized institution and maintain full-time student status during each semester, except for the final term, or unless they had taken an approved leave by the school of no more than 150 days.

Post-secondary international students with mental health challenges and disabilities are supposed to be accommodated by colleges and universities, which generally allow the students to go part-time to reduce their workload. 

In the past, individual immigration officials would consider the evidence to grant exemptions when assessing postgraduation work permit applications. Sometimes, a student would challenge a refusal in court and win.

However, in 2022, the landscape changed after the Federal Court ruled in two separate cases, those of a graduate from Jamaica who studied at George Brown College and another from India at St. Lawrence College. The court set precedents that immigration officers do not have the discretionary power to modify or waive any of the eligibility requirements for work permits.

“What makes this case different is rather than challenging the officer’s discretion to issue a (postgraduate work permit), we’re challenging the constitutionality of the policy itself,” said Andrew Koltun, co-counsel for Eugene-Akhere with Lou Janssen Dangzalan. They are helping him on a pro bono basis.

“If the policy is ironclad and the policy excludes students with disabilities unintentionally but still in effect, then the policy itself is unconstitutional. No other applicant at Federal Court has challenged the constitutionality of this policy.”

The Immigration Department said it cannot comment on this case because the matter is before the Federal Court.

Born and raised in Lagos, Eugene-Akhere had a middle-class upbringing; both his parents are bankers. His mother and father were barely home and he was cared for by his teenage aunts, a household steward and driver.

“Television and food were my true primary companions during my childhood,” recalled Eugene-Akhere, now 30, who asked not to be photographed for this story as he’s still struggling with mental illnesses related to his appearance.

He started getting ridiculed and bullied about his weight. It got worse after he finished Grade 6 and moved to a boarding school as he drifted further from his busy parents and three younger siblings.

“I felt unloved and that my parents probably thought of me as a failure and did not want to have anything to do with me,” said Eugene-Akhere, whose waist size reached 46 inches. He stands about five-foot-nine.

After spending a year in high school in Hamilton, he enrolled in York University’s business and society undergrad program. He says he would hear people murmuring about his weight and feel like an outcast. Soon, he stopped going to classes and struggled to meet assignment deadlines.

In 2014, York issued a one-year mandatory withdrawal for his poor grades and attendance. He returned a year later but relapsed and was “debarred” in 2017 for two years after his GPA fell below 4.0 out of 9.

In 2019, he reapplied and resumed his studies. He met an academic counsellor and was advised to take a part-time course load. When he finished his degree in 2022, he had had a part-time load in five of his 17 semesters attending the school.

“She would say, ‘You should take your courses little by little so you don’t overwhelm yourself,” said Eugene-Akhere, who didn’t know about the eligibility for the postgraduation work permit at that time.

“There’s always the apprehension for me to be in a crowd. So there was less of that for me.”

A York University spokesperson declined to comment on this case but said the school offers a range of supports and services to international students, including immigration advising through licensed professionals. Accommodations include a modified course load, support with note-taking or peer assistance. 

It may also include a reduced course load while still maintaining full-time enrolment status to avoid negative impacts on the international student’s present and future immigration matters.

Upon his graduation, Eugene-Akhere said York referred him to his lawyers, who helped submit his postgraduation work permit application in September 2022 and recommended he get diagnosed, given the learning difficulties he described to them. 

A psychological assessment by the Bhatia Psychology Group concluded Eugene-Akhere suffered body dysmorphic disorder, social anxiety disorder, and dysthymia or persistent depressive disorder. Dysmorphic disorder is a mental health condition where a person is constantly anxious about flaws in their appearance.

The associated dysregulation, anxious distress, depressive mood and low self-esteem, it said, could contribute to his struggles with procrastination, worries about making a mistake, attending class and speaking in class, making eye contact with professors and peers, and concentration.

Despite the diagnosis, Eugene-Akhere’s postgraduation work permit application was refused in October and he appealed to the Federal Court.

“Mental health is invisible as a disability,” said Dangzalan. “It’s not in your face, so it’s very hard to spot.

“The postgraduation work permit program offers no accommodation. It’s structured in such a way that it only accepts the healthiest students with no conditions that interfere with their ability to study.”

Meanwhile, Eugene-Akhere is out of status in Canada and must rely on the financial support of his parents, who are struggling back home as the Nigerian currency has fallen to record lows amid surging inflation.

“My parents have invested over $200,000 in me, in Canada,” said Eugene-Akhere, who has been exercising in his free time and cut his waist size to 32 inches.

“I feel like I’m being punished because of my disabilities and my mental health issues. I would like to help my mom, my dad and siblings with bills.”

Source: This international student with mental disorders took 9 years to get a degree and was refused a work permit. Here’s why he’s challenging Canada’s rules