Why Canada has a serious data deficit

More on the importance of good data by Barrie McKenna in the Globe’s Report on Business:

Prof. Gross [the C.D. Howe Institute researcher responsible for their study on Temporary Foreign Workers and their effect on increasing unemployment in AB and BC] acknowledged that perfect data is “very costly.”

So is bad data.

Employment Minister Jason Kenney recently imposed a moratorium on the use of temporary foreign workers in the restaurant industry, following embarrassing allegations of misuse by some McDonald’s franchise and other employers. And he has promised more reforms to come.

But who is to say that restaurants need imported foreign labour any less than hotels or coal mines, which are unaffected by the moratorium? And without better information, Mr. Kenney may compound his earlier decision to expand the program with an equally ill-considered move to shrink it.

The government’s troubles with the temporary foreign workers program is a classic case of bad data leading to dubious decision-making. Until recently, the government has relied on inflated Finance department job vacancy data, compiled in part by tracking job postings on Kijiji, a free classified-ad website. Statscan, meanwhile, was reporting that the national job vacancy rate was much smaller, and falling.

The problem goes way beyond temporary foreign workers. And it’s a data problem of the government’s own making. Ottawa has cut funds from important labour market research, slashed Statscan’s budget more savagely than many other departments, and scrapped a mandatory national census in favour of a less-accurate voluntary survey.

The Canadian government has demonstrated “a lack of commitment” to evidence-based decision-making and producing high-quality data, according to a global report on governance released last week by the Bertelsmann Foundation, a leading German think tank. The report ranked Canada in the middle of the pack and sliding on key measures of good governance compared with 40 other developed countries

One of the disadvantages of being in government for almost 10 years is that decisions which may have appeared to be cost-free can come back and haunt you.

Why Canada has a serious data deficit – The Globe and Mail.

Long-form census: Internal survey blasts feds for missing database

No surprise that there are continued complaints regarding the quality of data when the government replaced the mandatory census with the voluntary national household survey.

One would hope that the abuse of the Temporary Foreign Worker program, in part due to policy choices but also due to incomplete labour market information would teach the government the consequences of quality data:

Last year, the department consulted more than 80 users in four cities about the website and its trove of newly released digital information — and heard widespread feedback about data missing because of the demise of the mandatory long-form census.

“At four of the five meetings, large numbers of stakeholders raised concerns about the termination of the mandatory long form census,” says a report on the consultations, obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.

The complaints echo an audit last week from the auditor general of Canada, who found the voluntary National Household Survey in 2011 cost taxpayers $22 million more than the mandatory long-form census it replaced — and produced far less reliable data.

‘Large numbers of stakeholders raised concerns about the termination of the mandatory long form census.’

Statistics Canada eventually withheld the release of survey data for one of every four municipalities and other census sub-divisions because of the poor quality of the numbers.

“As a result of data not being released due to quality concerns, potential users of this data for approximately 25 per cent of geographic areas do not have reliable National Household Survey data available for their use,” said Michael Ferguson’s report.

Long-form census: Internal survey blasts feds for missing database – Politics – CBC News.

How losing 18,000 people made Manitoba $100-million poorer – The Globe and Mail

Although the article doesn’t state it, hard to believe that the shift from the mandatory Census to the National Household Voluntary Survey didn’t have something to do with it:

In past years, many people in Manitoba were missed. It has a large aboriginal population and aboriginal people tend to be missed at higher rates. Immigrants tend to get missed, and Manitoba had its highest levels of immigration in decades between 2006 and 2011. In 2011, the province also faced massive flooding that forced many people from their homes. Yet once the results of the reverse record check were complete, Statscan concluded that the adjusted population was only 1,233,728. A year earlier, it was thought to be 1,251,690.

But when they looked more closely at that sample, they examined something called the T-statistic, which acts as a test of statistical accuracy. Manitoba’s T-statistic was extremely high, “way out of bounds,” Mr. Falk said. (Manitoba’s was 3.35. Next highest was Alberta at 1.61). It points to a bad sample in the reverse record check, he said.

“It’s the canary in the coal mine,” he said. “The probability of getting a more extreme result than we observed in 2011 … is nearly non-existent.”

Statscan agreed there was something unusual. “We took a rigorous look at this,” Mr. Smith said. “We found nothing, and we went over it with a fine tooth comb.”

How losing 18,000 people made Manitoba $100-million poorer – The Globe and Mail.

Meet Joe/Jose/Youssef Canada

A good overview of Canada from the National Voluntary Survey. While not as accurate as the Census cancelled by the current government (higher cost for poorer quality data, less comparability with previous data), at the national and provincial levels captures the major trends.

Meet Joe/Jose/Youssef Canada.

1921 census provides a glimpse into Toronto’s multicultural past

A reminder that Canada’s diversity has a long history. And the value of a consistent national census.

1921 census provides a glimpse into Toronto’s multicultural past | Toronto Star.

To restore faith in Statscan, free the Chief Statistician

Munir Sheikh, the former Chief Statistician of Canada, on the case for a more independent Statistics Canada to help improve trust in the quality of their reports.

To restore faith in Statscan, free the Chief Statistician – The Globe and Mail.

Canada’s voluntary census is worthless. Here’s why – The Globe and Mail

Another illustration of the effects of the move to a voluntary census.

Canada’s voluntary census is worthless. Here’s why – The Globe and Mail.

From census to wireless, a lesson in intransigence – The Globe and Mail

Jeffrey Simpson on the Census. Perhaps the best or worst example of a decision driven by ideology.

From census to wireless, a lesson in intransigence – The Globe and Mail.

What the National Household Survey can’t tell us – Beyond The Commons, Capital Read – Macleans.ca

A reminder of just what we have lost in terms of reliable, consistent data with the cancellation of the mandatory census, this time in relation to the National Household Survey. Bad or no data leads to bad decisions, an example of a decision driven by ideology rather than common sense.

What the National Household Survey can’t tell us – Beyond The Commons, Capital Read – Macleans.ca.

What We Don’t Know Can’t Hurt Us (Right?) | The Census Project Blog

A bit tongue-in-cheek on the US Census debates. Orwellian “ignorance is strength”.

What We Don’t Know Can’t Hurt Us (Right?) | The Census Project Blog.