Hausse des expulsions, baisse des demandes d’asile

Good summary of the changes with data:

Parmi les renvois exécutés cette année, 841 dossiers entraient dans la catégorie des cas « graves » : sécurité nationale, crimes de guerre, violations des droits de la personne, crime organisé et criminalité. Le reste des expulsions portaient sur des motifs liés au statut migratoire et à l’application de la Loi sur l’immigration et la protection des réfugiés.

Sur les 19 000 renvois, 4823 personnes ont été retournées aux États-Unis.

Pour l’ensemble des personnes expulsées par le Canada, le Mexique, l’Inde et Haïti sont les pays de citoyenneté les plus représentés. Suivent la Colombie, la Roumanie, les États-Unis et le Venezuela.

Une mesure d’expulsion est exécutoire dès que tous les recours ont été utilisés et qu’aucune suspension n’est en vigueur.

Recul des demandes d’asile

Pendant ce temps, au Québec, les demandes d’asile ont plongé de 30 %.

Entre janvier et novembre, l’ASFC a traité 20 752 demandes d’asile, contre 29 668 demandes, au cours de la même période, l’an dernier.

Cette baisse ne reflète toutefois pas l’ensemble du système d’asile, puisque des demandes sont plutôt évaluées par Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada (IRCC).

Selon les données les plus récentes, au 25 septembre, 31 875 demandes avaient été traitées au Québec, contre 45 530 à la même date, un an plus tôt, soit une baisse de 30 %.

À l’échelle canadienne, 89 380 demandes avaient été enregistrées, contre 132 455 l’année précédente, une chute de 32,5 %.

Un cas isolé

Au chapitre des entrées irrégulières, aucun signe de hausse, assure Miguel Bégin, directeur du district frontière Est.

« Au niveau des entrées illégales, il n’y a pas de tendance actuellement qui démontre une augmentation », a-t-il déclaré à La Presse.

L’affaire des 44 migrants découverts dans un camion cube sans ventilation à Stanstead, en août, demeure selon lui un cas isolé1.

« C’était effectivement un réseau de passeurs qui avait recruté toutes ces personnes-là, qui avaient payé pour entrer au Canada. Elles ont presque toutes été retournées aux États-Unis. S’il y en a qui sont restées, il n’y en a vraiment pas beaucoup. C’est vraiment très, très minime par rapport à la totalité du groupe. On parle probablement de moins de 5 personnes sur le groupe de 44 personnes. »

Moins de voyageurs

Entre janvier et octobre, l’ASFC a accueilli un peu plus de 70 millions de voyageurs, comparativement à 80,5 millions en 2024, une baisse de 12 % toutes catégories confondues : Canadiens, touristes, immigrants temporaires.

« On a observé une diminution du nombre des voyageurs cette année, surtout les voyageurs canadiens. On a suivi l’évolution, surtout en période estivale, parce que c’est là où on a nos plus gros volumes », explique M. Bégin.

Source: Hausse des expulsions, baisse des demandes d’asile

Among the referrals executed this year, 841 cases fall into the category of “serious” cases: national security, war crimes, human rights violations, organized crime and crime. The rest of the deportations were on grounds related to immigration status and the application of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act.

Of the 19,000 returns, 4823 people were returned to the United States.

For all people expelled by Canada, Mexico, India and Haiti are the most represented countries of citizenship. Followed by Colombia, Romania, the United States and Venezuela.

An expulsion measure is enforceable as soon as all remedies have been used and no suspension is in force.

Detrain of asylum applications

Meanwhile, in Quebec, asylum applications fell by 30%.

Between January and November, the CBSA processed 20,752 asylum applications, compared to 29,668 applications during the same period last year.

However, this decline does not reflect the entire asylum system, since applications are instead assessed by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

According to the most recent data, as of September 25, 31,875 applications had been processed in Quebec, compared to 45,530 on the same date, a year earlier, a decrease of 30%.

At the Canadian level, 89,380 applications were registered, compared to 132,455 in the previous year, a drop of 32.5%.

An isolated case

In terms of irregular entries, there are no signs of an increase, says Miguel Bégin, director of the East border district.

“In terms of illegal entries, there is currently no trend that shows an increase,” he told La Presse.

The case of the 44 migrants discovered in a cubic truck without ventilation in Stanstead in August remains an isolated case, according to him1.

“It was indeed a network of smugglers who had recruited all those people, who had paid to enter Canada. Almost all of them were returned to the United States. If there are those who have stayed, there are really not many. It’s really very, very minimal compared to the entire group. We are probably talking about less than 5 people out of the group of 44 people. ”

Fewer travelers

Between January and October, the CBSA welcomed just over 70 million travelers, compared to 80.5 million in 2024, a decrease of 12% in all categories: Canadians, tourists, temporary immigrants.

“There has been a decrease in the number of travellers this year, especially Canadian travelers. We have followed the evolution, especially in the summer, because that is where we have our largest volumes, “explains Mr. Begin.

Skuterud et al: How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System

Valid critique:

In 2023, with little fanfare and no political opposition, the federal government gave itself the power to subvert Canada’s world-renowned skilled immigration system.

That system was formerly centred on the “points system,” called the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) in its most recent incarnation. 

Under the CRS, applicants for permanent residency were evaluated on their education, work experience, and language proficiency and the highest scoring applicants were admitted. The result was a continuous inflow of top talent chosen without political influence that benefited the Canadian economy and was admired by many countries (and emulated by some).   

But in 2023, the government created a new category-based feature in the system. That feature gave the immigration minister the power to prioritize categories of immigrants and move them to the front of the line. A rules-based system was replaced with a discretion-based system. 

The result is an opaque system that is exposed to political lobbying, looks like a lottery to prospective migrants, and squeezes out highly skilled candidates. In 2025, the leading category of immigrants under the new category-based system are francophones applying to live outside Quebec. 

Contributing to Canada’s patchwork immigration system, provincial nominee programs, which give provinces the ability to prioritize groups unable to meet the standard of the points system, account for an ever-increasing share of immigrant admissions. 

Admitting fewer skilled immigrants reduces our country’s productivity and tax revenue making it harder to fund social programs. It also affects Canada’s ability to attract the world’s best and brightest students to our post-secondary institutions, which are collectively reeling from plummeting international enrolment. 

Under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program, former international students with a Canadian postsecondary credential and one year of work experience in a skilled occupation are eligible to transition to permanent resident status without leaving the country. 

The CEC program’s intention is a good one – we attract whiz kids from around the world and provide them with an education that Canadian employers can easily evaluate. When this path works, it works well. International students pay high fees, lowering tuition costs for Canadians, and those who stay end up doing well in Canada’s labour markets. 

However, this approach can be abused when postsecondary institutions use immigration, not education, to lure foreign students. This has contributed to the growth of low-quality programs and distorted incentives on all sides. The problem lies in policy design.

In response to unsustainable growth in Canada’s non-permanent resident population and worries about housing, healthcare and labour market effects, the government has cut international student admissions for 2026 by 50 percent. 

The reduction is facing criticism from the postsecondary sector, but critics are overlooking that universities and colleges are not even reaching the quotas they have been given under the already reduced caps. New foreign student arrivals are on track to reach less than 160,000 in 2025, far below the government’s cap of 305,900. 

Foreign student applications to Canada’s universities and colleges have declined dramatically because prospective students no longer see a clear path to staying in Canada. Graduate students in computer science who want to stay are being told that learning French is their best option. And they fear that when they graduate, a different arbitrary category will be the priority. The current system discourages the best foreign students from applying to Canadian postsecondary institutions and blocks many of those who graduate from remaining in Canada.  

What should be done?

First, turn back the clock. Return to the immigration system that existed as recently as 2019 when immigrants were admitted through a single selection system that prioritized candidates with the highest future Canadian earnings. That system was transparent, predictable, and not easy for lobbyists to manipulate.  

Second, send a clear message that Canada welcomes foreign students. At a time when our goods exporting industries face major challenges, we should promote one of our most valuable services exports – educating international students. Education is an export that is uniquely dependent on trust, as students must live in Canada to consume the product.

Third, refine the points system to better target international graduates with the best earnings prospects. This would lead to increased demand by international students for programs with high post-graduate earnings and benefit our immigration program. Demand for programs that offer low earnings returns would moderate attracting only those international students who are coming solely for the education, since these programs would provide no realistic pathway to PR status.  

Canada needs immigration reform now. What we have now is a bungled system that prioritizes lobbying effort over the very real contribution that immigration can make to the Canadian economy.

David Green is a professor at the Vancouver School of Economics, Philip Oreopoulos is distinguished professor in economics at the University of Toronto. Craig Riddell is emeritus professor at the Vancouver School of Economics. Mikal Skuterud is economics professor at the University of Waterloo, and the Rogers Phillips Scholar of Social Policy at the C.D. Howe Institute and Christopher Worswick is professor of economics at Carleton University and a research fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.

Source: How We Subverted our Skills Based Immigration System

Celebrities with distant Canadian roots set to gain citizenship under new Liberal law

Not surprising when one looks at grandparents. Unclear how many, if any, will apply:

A group of well-known American public figures, including singer Madonna and former U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton, would become eligible to be considered Canadian citizens under a federal law passed last month that removes long-standing limits on citizenship by descent.

Bill C-3, adopted on November 20, eliminates the “first-generation limit,” a restriction introduced in 2009 that prevented Canadian citizenship from being passed to children born abroad if their Canadian parent was also born outside the country.

The change extends eligibility for citizenship to people who would previously have been ineligible, provided they have a Canadian ancestor somewhere in their lineage. Eligible candidates would need to go through an application process once the bill comes into force.

As a result, several prominent Americans with distant roots would be eligible to apply for Canadian citizenship once the law comes into force.

Madonna, who was born in Michigan and holds only U.S. citizenship, has French-Canadian ancestry through her mother’s family, which traces back to 17th-century Quebec. Under the new law, those historic ties would allow the star to apply for Canadian citizenship.

Actor Viggo Mortensen, born in New York to an American mother and Danish father, would also qualify through his maternal grandfather, who was born in Parrsboro, N.S. Mortensen currently holds U.S. and Danish citizenship.

Actress Lily Collins, born in England and raised in California, would also become eligible for Canadian citizenship based on her maternal grandfather’s birthplace in Winnipeg.

Hillary Clinton, whose French-Canadian roots stretch back to New France through her maternal line, would likewise become eligible for Canadian citizenship. Her genealogy was detailed in her 2003 memoir, which traces family ties to Quebec ancestors, including the Filles du Roi.

Musician Jack White of Detroit similarly would qualify through his paternal grandfather, who was born in Nova Scotia.

The government says the law is intended to address long-standing concerns about the first-generation rule and allow Canadian families affected by it to transmit citizenship to their children. Going forward, Canadians born abroad would be permitted to pass citizenship to their own children born outside the country, subject to a “substantial connection to Canada” test.

Although the legislation has passed, an implementation date has not been announced.

Until then, interim measures remain in place that allow individuals affected by the former limit to apply for proof of citizenship online. Applicants approved under the temporary process will not need to reapply once Bill C-3 comes into force.

Source: Celebrities with distant Canadian roots set to gain citizenship under new Liberal law

Pollara: Populism without populists: New polling reveals Canada’s puzzling political contradiction

Interesting:

…Taken together, these patterns define Canada’s distinctive condition of populism without populists: a democratic tension between demand and acceptable political expression. Canadians articulate strong grievances about elite unresponsiveness and systemic unfairnes, and yet resist leaders who adopt the rhetorical and stylistic markers of populism seen elsewhere. The appetite is for accountability and renewal, not for theatrical confrontation or institutional disruption.

For political leaders, this configuration creates a subtle but consequential hazard. Self-identifying as populist offers little reward and significant reputational risk. Canadians overwhelmingly reject figures who embody the style of American right-wing populism. At the same time, the grievances that animate populist movements elsewhere, such as distrust of elites, dissatisfaction with institutions, and perceptions of distant and unresponsive governance, are unmistakably present.

Despite this aversion to populism as a label or style, recent political developments demonstrate that Canadian politicians are increasingly being held accountable by electorates animated by populist expectations around transparency, fairness, keeping promises, follow-through, and genuine influence. Leadership challenges, caucus revolts, and relentless scrutiny signal tensions between authority and responsiveness.

This is the inconvenient democratic reality confronting Canada’s political class. Politicians of all stripes are being held accountable by voters who expect to be heard, respected, and acted upon. Parties should be reminded that in the end, those who govern must answer to those who elected them.

Source: Populism without populists: New polling reveals Canada’s puzzling political contradiction

Liberals to open new fast track to permanent residency for 5,000 foreign doctors

Strange that about one month after issuing the levels plan, the government has effectively increased the levels by 5,000. Hard not to understand why this was not within the current levels, as it appears more sleight of hand as were the other one-time additions. Does not help the overall message that the government is getting immigration more under control (even if it is):

The federal government is promising to open up permanent residency for foreign doctors working in Canada as temporary foreign residents in order to tackle the doctor shortage across the country. 

Immigration Minister Lena Diab announced the policy shift in Toronto Monday, saying 5,000 spots for international doctors would be opened over and above current immigration levels. 

“Many of these doctors are already treating patients in our communities. We cannot afford to lose them,” Diab said. 

The plan involves creating a new express entry category for foreign doctors starting in 2026 for physicians with at least one year of Canadian work experience over the last three years who currently have a job offer. 

A government statement said that physicians eligible for the program include primary care doctors as well as specialists in surgery, clinical and laboratory medicine….

Source: Liberals to open new fast track to permanent residency for 5,000 foreign doctors

Some numbers in the Globe article:

Across Canada, the numbers of physicians coming north this year have increased.

Ontario has issued certificates to 493 U.S.-trained physicians this year, up from 209 last year. The College of Physicians and Surgeons of BC has seen 405 applications from U.S.-trained physicians this year, nearly double the total from the previous two years. Nova Scotia has issued provincial licences to 34 U.S.-trained doctors this year, more than double the 2024 total.

Federal government issued billions to students at private schools, data reveal

Sigh….:

The Canadian government gave billions in grants to students at private, for-profit schools, a practice some critics argue has rewarded some institutions with less-than-rigorous academic standards.

Since 2017, the federal government has granted $2.7 billion to students at those schools, according to data from Employment and Social Development Can­ada (ESDC). 

The amount awarded to the students has risen dramatically in recent years, meaning a growing share of taxpayer money is indirectly flowing to for-profit institutions. 

Last month’s federal budget announced the government will no longer offer grants to students at such schools, citing unspecified “integrity issues.”…

Source: Federal government issued billions to students at private schools, data reveal

Donald Trump’s latest anti-immigration policies may drive migrants to Canada. But are they welcome here?

Not with open arms given overall public opinion on immigration having risen too much before the recent reductions:

Since late last month, Toronto resident Hazat Wahriz has been approached by Afghan friends and acquaintances in the U.S. desperately asking about refuge in Canada.

With Washington pausing and reviewing the entire asylum system and immigration processing of applicants from certain countries including Afghanistan, he said his compatriots south of the border are fearful of losing their already precarious status and being deported to the embrace of the Taliban.

“Just imagine you belong to a community that is inadmissible there and is not welcome,” said Wahriz, a former university professor and diplomat in Afghanistan, who came to Canada for asylum in 2013 and is a citizen. “Now the U.S. is not a safe country for them. Deportation for most of these people is going to be a sentence to death.”…

Montreal immigration lawyer Marc-André Séguin said it’s too early to predict how Trump’s policies would affect the refugee flow to Canada, but Ottawa’s stronger border enforcement — and slashing of immigration levels — sends a strong message to would-be claimants abroad. 

“Canada is certainly trying to make it more challenging for asylum seekers to seek refuge on Canadian soil,” said Séguin, who practises American and Canadian immigration law, and has been retained by U.S. clients concerned about their status there.   

“Canada in the recent past has done a lot to to make itself less attractive. To what extent will that play a role in possible demand? It’s hard to say at the moment.”…

Source: Donald Trump’s latest anti-immigration policies may drive migrants to Canada. But are they welcome here?

More Canadians, including children, detained in U.S. for immigration violations, new data show

Not surprising, inevitable result of sweeping crackdowns:

A sweeping immigration crackdown in the United States is increasingly ensnaring Canadians who don’t have criminal records – including at least six children – new U.S. government data show. 

An estimated 207 Canadians have now been held in Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody at some point since January, when President Donald Trump took office. The total number of Canadians held in 2024 was 130.

Earlier this year, an initial Globe and Mail analysis revealed that ICE had detained two Canadian toddlers in May at a remote facility in Texas. The analysis also showed that Canadians held by ICE were more likely to have criminal records than many other nationalities swept up in the White House’s mass deportation campaign, which has primarily targeted immigrants from Latin America. 

In the first half of 2025, almost 70 per cent of Canadians placed in immigration detention had criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. 

Now, a growing number of Canadian detainees are being held on immigration violations alone, updated enforcement data covering late July to mid-October show.

Of the Canadians detained during this period, some 44 per cent had no criminal records or pending charges against them, The Globe has found. The detainees include four children ranging in age from under two years old to about 16 years old.

Source: More Canadians, including children, detained in U.S. for immigration violations, new data show

The median entry wage of new immigrants decreased by 10.6% in 2023 but remained above its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level

Of note:

The median wage earned by new immigrants in Canada one year after admission can be a good predictor of their future economic outcomes. The real median entry wage (after adjusting for inflation) of newcomers decreased by 10.6% from 2022 to 2023, the largest decline since 1991.

This drop among immigrants from 2022 to 2023 occurred amid a 1.1% increase in the overall real median wage of Canadians over this period. While entry wages decreased across most immigrant categories, the overall decline is partly related to the fact that the proportion of immigrants admitted as principal applicants under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), who typically have a higher entry wage, reached an all-time high in 2021, but fell below 2019 pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in 2022.

This Daily release explores the economic outcomes of recent immigrants in the 2024 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). It outlines variations in the economic outcomes of newcomers by admission category, pre-admission experience and province. The IMDB is the result of a collaboration between Statistics Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), and the provinces.

Infographic 1 
Median entry wage of immigrants and percentage change from previous year, tax year 1990 to 2023

Thumbnail for Infographic 1: Median entry wage of immigrants and percentage change from previous year, tax year 1990 to 2023

The median entry wage for new immigrants decreases more in 2023 than in 2020, but remains higher than every other year prior to 2021

The median entry wage of immigrants steadily increased from 2010 to 2022, except in 2020 when wages were impacted by the pandemic.

From 2020 to 2021, the real median entry wage of immigrants rose by over one-fifth (+21.2%), increasing from $34,400 to $41,700. It then rose a further 6.7% year over year to $44,500 in 2022. In 2023, the median entry wage of immigrants declined by 10.6% to $39,800 but remained higher than the median entry wage in 2020 ($34,400) and every other year prior to 2021.

This was a relatively large decline, given that the overall real median wage of Canadians increased by 1.1% to $47,650 in 2023.

The decrease in the number of Canadian Experience Class principal applicants admitted in 2022 may contribute to the overall decline of the median entry wage of new immigrants in 2023

In 2023, immigrants from each of the main admission categories saw their median entry wage decline compared with the previous year. Specifically, the median entry wage declined for spouse and dependent economic immigrants (-7.3% year over year to $34,400), for immigrants sponsored by family (-4.1% to $30,300) and for refugees (-1.9% to $25,900).

Economic principal applicants, who are selected for their ability to contribute to Canada’s economic development, had the highest median entry wage among the four main admission categories at $51,500 in 2023. While this was a 5.5% decline from the previous year, each of the specific programs within the economic principal applicant stream experienced smaller decreases or even increases in entry wage.

In 2023, CEC principal applicants, who are selected based on their Canadian work experience, remained the admission category with the highest median entry wage. Their median entry wage rose 3.4% to $60,600 in 2023, following a decline in 2022 from its peak in 2021 ($71,000).

In 2023, principal applicants from the skilled worker and skilled trades (-4.4% to $56,000) and provincial/territorial nominee (-3.8% to $47,700) programs saw their entry median wages decrease from a year earlier. Business (-2.4% to $24,900) and caregiver (+4.9% to $38,500) principal applicants had the lowest entry income among economic principal applicants.

The decreases in the median entry wages by admission categories in 2023 were mostly smaller than what was observed for the overall immigrant population (-10.6%). This discrepancy is likely related to changes in the makeup of the immigrant population and their admission categories.

In 2021, IRCC specifically invited express entry candidates, who were more likely to be physically located in Canada and therefore less impacted by pandemic-related border restrictions, to apply for permanent residency. This was done, in part, by increasing the number of immigrants admitted through the CEC program, the category with the highest median entry wage. Specifically, the share of immigrants aged 15 years and older admitted as CEC principal applicants increased from 12% in 2020 to 27% in 2021. This change contributed to the growth of the entry wage of all new immigrants in 2022. With the removal of border restrictions in 2022, CEC principal applicants were less targeted, and their share declined to 5% in that year. This, in addition to the other factors at play during the post-pandemic period, contributed to the overall reduction in the entry wages of new immigrants in 2023….

Source: The median entry wage of new immigrants decreased by 10.6% in 2023 but remained above its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level

StatsCan: Portrait of the South Asian populations in Canada

Another in StatsCan population portraits:

South Asian populations in Canada nearly quadrupled from 1996 to 2021

In 2021, South Asian populations were the largest racialized group in Canada, numbering nearly 2.6 million people and representing 7.1% of Canada’s total population. This was nearly four times as large as the size of the South Asian populations 25 years earlier, in 1996, when they numbered 669,060 people and made up 2.4% of the population.

According to the latest population projections, South Asian populations in Canada could reach 4.7 million to 6.5 million people by 2041, which would make up 11.0% to 12.5% of the total population.

India is the most common place of birth of South Asian populations in Canada

Overall, approximately 6 in 10 South Asians in Canada in 2021 were born in Southern Asia, 3 in 10 were born in Canada and 1 in 10 were born in other regions of the world.

The most common country of birth for South Asian populations was India (44%), while the other main places of birth in South Asia were Pakistan (9%), Sri Lanka (5%) and Bangladesh (3%).

Other places of birth outside Canada included countries in other regions of Asia (such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan), Africa (such as Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda), the Caribbean and Central and South America (mainly Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago), Europe (mainly the United Kingdom), Oceania (mainly Fiji) and the United States (Table 1).

Among the 29% of South Asians who were born in Canada, the largest group was that of people whose parents were both born in India, followed by those whose parents were both born in Pakistan, both born in Sri Lanka and both born in Canada.

The majority of South Asian immigrants who immigrated from 1980 to 2021 are economic immigrants

Among South Asian immigrants living in Canada in 2021 who immigrated during the period from 1980 to 2021, the majority were economic immigrants (54%). This share was larger among those who had immigrated from 2011 to 2021 (69%) than among those who had immigrated from 1981 to 1990 (36%).

From 1980 to 2021, economic immigrants made up the majority of South Asian immigrants across many places of birth, including India (57%), Pakistan (56%) and Bangladesh (61%) (Chart 1). Meanwhile, South Asians born in Sri Lanka were mostly a mix of refugees (42%), immigrants sponsored by family (33%) and economic immigrants (21%)….

Source: Study: Portrait of the South Asian populations in Canada