Lang: Why Ottawa won’t come to grips with Canada’s productivity problem

2024/07/18 Leave a comment

Dispiriting but likely correct even without the exacerbation by ill-designed immigration policies (knew Lang when he worked in Deputy PMs office in the late 90s):

…Three reasons spring to mind for why Canada has done so little on the productivity front.

First, federal policy change is often driven less by the importance of the issue and more by a sense of urgency – it’s the classic dilemma: urgent crowds out the important. Unfortunately, long-run economic decline is never seen as a matter of urgency in government. It is the quintessential boiling-frog problem.

Second, persistent productivity weakness suggests deep-seated structural problems in the Canadian economy. You can’t meaningfully get at that without paradigm-shifting policy change. That entails risk, and all governments are masters of risk aversion. The irony here is that over the years the federal government has routinely chided Canadian business for insufficient investment in R&D, inadequate pursuit of foreign markets and weak entrepreneurialism, all of which boils down to risk-taking.

Third, when governments do get down to discussing innovation, the regional political imperative rears its head. Meaning innovation policies, especially spending programs, are usually designed to confer benefits on all regions of the country, seriously diluting their impact.

All previous federal innovation reports have tripped over some or all of these three hurdles. And this will likely continue. When the next government comes along, expect either indifference to Canada’s productivity crisis, or yet another study and report into the problem, which will be largely ignored. Then turn the heat up one more notch on the frog in the pot.

Source: Why Ottawa won’t come to grips with Canada’s productivity problem

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Quebec’s attack on refugee sponsorship

2024/07/16 Leave a comment

Of note but unlikely to influence change in policy in Quebec:

There is a rich history of communities across Canada working together to raise funds to sponsor refugees who come to our country. Local groups with humanitarian goals are focused on ensuring a brighter future for people forced to flee their homelands. However, groups in Quebec are facing challenges not experienced elsewhere in Canada.

Sponsoring refugees changes lives and enriches our society. The arrival of refugees from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos in the late 1970s was a notable point in our history, as was the more recent arrival of Syrians, about a decade ago. Both times, Quebec played an important role in these initiatives.

Perhaps less well-known is that more than 400,000 people have immigrated to Canada through refugee sponsorship. Sponsorship allows Canadians to respond to humanitarian crises and express solidarity. Today, groups support Afghans, Iraqis, Congolese and Eritreans. They also support other refugees, including LGBTQ individuals whose rights are not protected in their home countries.

The program relies on citizens who form sponsorship groups and provide financial aid and integration support for a refugee’s first year in Canada. Groups choose who they will help. Often, the refugee is a friend or relative of a group member. In all but Quebec, the program is administered solely by the federal government.

Many immigration policies in Quebec are distinct from the rest of Canada as the federal government allows the province more control over its affairs. Since the late 1990s, Quebec’s government has controlled aspects of refugee sponsorship. Four key differences show how Quebec’s program is threatened by its own government.

Reduced and insufficient landing targets

Quebec has drastically reduced the number of sponsored refugees allowed in the province. As part of its annual immigration target, the government has cut the figures this year to between 1,850 and 2,100 from a maximum of 4,400 six years ago.

Once targets are set, both levels of government must work to reach them, but Quebec has consistently failed in recent years to hold up its end, as figure 1 shows.

Travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic dampened numbers in 2020 and 2021. But the following year, as the world began to emerge from restrictions, 2,010 sponsored refugeesarrived out of a target of 2,750 to 3000. In 2023, the same goal was set, but only 1,190 arrived. This is in stark contrast to the over 4,000 sponsored refugees who arrived in Quebec each year from 2016 to 2018.

Quebec’s lower targets and inability to meet them contrast with the rest of the country, where targets have increased and have been met. Some 22,517 sponsored refugees arrived in Canada in 2022 and 27,655 in 2023. Quebec has the lowest rate of resettlement of all provinces.

Lengthy processing times

Finalizing fewer applications causes wait times to increase. News reports a year ago revealed the Quebec government had shelved applications from Afghan refugees while Ottawa prioritized those requests. As reported in Le Devoir, an application submitted by a Toronto group saw an Afghan family arrive within six months. But a Montreal group was still waiting a year later for Quebec to assess an application made at the same time.

Quebec Immigration Minister Christine Fréchette promised that all applications would be processed and sent to the federal government by the end of 2023, yet many organizations have not received any response on requests  submitted as far back as 2022, even as advocates for refugee sponsorship made clear calls for improvement.

Lengthy wait times leave refugees overseas in perilous situations. Afghan families who fled to countries such as Pakistan or Tajikistan to escape the Taliban often need to pay bribes to extend their immigration status or find housing. Some develop health concerns. Sponsor groups end up sending money abroad to help refugees, who can do little more than wait.

Lack of consultation and collaboration

Sponsored refugees receive permanent residence status upon arrival in Canada and their sponsors help them adjust to their new country. Governments and sponsorship groups need to work together for this approach to succeed.

The federal government makes significant efforts to collaborate with sponsorship groups. It funds training and supports co-ordination efforts by experienced sponsorship organizations, including regular meetings. This ensures clear communication and good program management.

The Quebec government provides some funding to employ a resource person for refugee sponsorship, but there is minimal interaction between organizations and government officials. Sponsor groups are left in the dark when policy changes are introduced.

Roadblocks for experienced organizations

Both federally and in Quebec, there are three types of sponsorship. First, small groups of individuals can step forward on an ad hoc basis in the group of five program at the federal level and the group of 2 to 5 program in Quebec. Second, community organizations can apply through specific programs in both jurisdictions. Third, large bodies with significant experience in sponsorship work with local groups or co-sponsors to help refugees once they arrive. These are known as sponsorship agreement holders (SAHs) in all but Quebec where they are called “experienced organizations.”

The larger, established organizations provide expertise to refugee sponsors and ensure consistent outcomes. At the federal level, most applications are supported by SAHs. In contrast, the Quebec government appears to prefer working with ad hoc groups. Over half the spots available for sponsorship applications in the province are reserved for them.

The Quebec government uses a lottery to select a limited number of applications. This is not the case under the federal program, although intake controls are under consideration. Refugee sponsorship advocates in Quebec have decried the lottery system.

Requirements for financial support vary depending on the type of sponsorship organization. All groups whose applications move forward must have enough money to support the refugees they sponsor. At the federal level, sponsors are encouraged to raise funds and keep them in a trust account. In Quebec, ad hoc sponsors are assessed on the income of the two to five membersin the group. A recent policy change in Quebec targets experienced sponsors and weakens program oversight.

Quebec recently notified organizations that keeping funds in trust is forbidden after investigating suspected cases of fraud. This has left sponsorship groups exasperated and uncertain how to manage. There was no discussion between the government and the sponsorship community on this new policy. Long-standing organizations have indicated they are uncertain if they can continue their work.

Prohibiting groups from keeping trust funds goes against the best practices for refugee sponsorship. These accounts ensure sponsors can provide for the needs of refugees once they arrive. Quebec’s approach of banning trusts and preferring ad hoc groups leaves no way to ensure compliance or good management of sponsorships.

Quebec must change course

Refugee sponsorship has long been a part of Canada’s identity. If Quebec wants to ensure sponsorship remains viable and that humanitarian objectives are respected it needs to reform its program. Many individuals and groups in the province are willing to sponsor refugees, but are disheartened by the roadblocks resulting from the government’s approach.

Targets must be raised, processing times must decrease, more collaboration is needed and sponsor groups should be encouraged to hold funds in trust to ensure a good welcome for newcomers. These changes would also support citizens who are eager to help refugees start a new life in Quebec.

Source: Quebec’s attack on refugee sponsorship

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In some countries, immigration accounted for all population growth between 2000 and 2020

2024/07/16 Leave a comment

Interesting overview. While Canada not mentioned, it is also in the same situation:

The global population ballooned by about 1.7 billion people between 2000 and 2020. But growth was uneven around the world and, in some places, immigration played a key role.

In 14 countries and territories, in fact, immigration accounted for more than 100% of population growth during this period, meaning that populations there would have declined if not for the arrival of new immigrants.

In 17 other countries, populations did decline between 2000 and 2020. But the decreases were smaller than they otherwise would have been due to growth in these countries’ immigrant populations.

How we did this

The places where populations grew only through immigration between 2000 and 2020 – and those where population losses were mitigated by immigration – are geographically scattered. What they tend to have in common is low fertility rates and aging populations. The only way a country’s population can increase, aside from having more births than deaths, is through immigration.

Population decline can be a challenge for countries experiencing it. When deaths and emigration outnumber births and immigration, countries are left with aging populations and dwindling numbers of working-age people to fill out the labor force and support older adults.

Where immigration staved off population losses

The places where immigration accounted for all population growth between 2000 and 2020 range from large countries in Europe to small island nations in the South Pacific.

A table showing that new immigration reversed population loss in some countries over last 2 decades.

Germany’s population grew by 1.7 million people between 2000 and 2020. But it would have shrunk by more than 5 million people without the arrival of new immigrants. During these years, many new immigrants arrived in Germany from Poland, Syria, Kazakhstan and Romania. Women in Germany have 1.5 children on average – far below the fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman needed for each generation to replace itself – and half of people in Germany are older than 45.

Italy’s population grew by 2.7 million people between 2000 and 2020. However, if not for immigration from places like Romania, Ukraine and Albania, Italy’s population would have declined by 1.6 million people. Italy’s fertility rate is only 1.3 children per woman and its median age is 46.

In the Czech Republic, the overall population grew by 300,000 in 20 years, but immigrants again accounted for all growth. Without new immigrants – many of whom came from other European countries – the Czech population would have shrunk by more than 20,000. As of 2020, women in the Czech Republic had an average of 1.7 children, while the country’s median age was 42.

Portugal’s population grew modestly between 2000 and 2020 – by fewer than 40,000 people – but it would have shrunk by more than 310,000 people without new immigrant arrivals. Many migrants to Portugal were born in Angola, Brazil or France. Portugal’s fertility rate is 1.4 and its median age is 45.

Apart from Europe, immigration also played an important role in avoiding population losses elsewhere in the world.

The population of the United Arab Emirates grew by 6.1 million people between 2000 and 2020 but would have declined by 210,000 without new immigrants. Many of the UAE’s new arrivals were from South Asian countries or Egypt. The average woman in the UAE has 1.5 children, while the country’s median age is 32.

Several smaller countries and territories were also spared population decline only through the arrival of new immigrants. Aruba, the Cook Islands, Curacao, Dominica, the Falkland Islands, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Sint Maarten and Tokelau were all in this category.

Where immigration mitigated population losses

In 17 other countries and territories, populations declined between 2000 and 2020 but would have dropped even more – in some cases much more – without growth in their immigrant populations.

A table showing that, in some countries, new immigration curbed population loss from 2000-20.

In Japan, fertility rates have plummeted to an average of only 1.3 children per woman and the median age is now 48. More people are dying each year than are being born, and Japan’s population declined by over 1.1 million people between 2000 and 2020. However, Japan’s population would have fallen by twice as much (2.2 million people) during this period if not for the arrival of new immigrants. During these years, the foreign-born population of Japan grew from 1.7 million to 2.8 million. Many immigrants to Japan have come from China, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Romania’s population shrank by about 2.5 million between 2000 and2020 but would have declined by more than 3 million if not for new immigrants, many of whom are from Moldova. Romania has a fertility rate of 1.7 and a median age of 42.

Greece’s population declined by about 500,000 people between 2000 and 2020. But it would have decreased by 700,000 if not for an increase in the country’s foreign-born population. Similarly, Hungary’s population shrank by 440,000 – but would have fallen by 730,000 without new immigrants. Both countries have low fertility rates and older populations.

In other countries where populations declined, immigrant populations did not increase between 2000 and 2020. This can happen when deaths and departures among earlier immigrants outnumber new immigrant arrivals.

Causes and consequences of population decline

Around the world, women are having fewer children. Women have increasingly put off or forgone childbearing as their average years of education increase, rates of workforce participation climb, and reliable family planning methods become more accessible.

Globally, the total fertility rate – the number of children born to an average woman – declined from 2.7 to 2.3 between 2000 and 2020, a sizable drop in only two decades. It takes an average of about 2.1 children per woman for each generation to replace itself. Naturally, populations age as birth rates dwindle. During these years, the world’s median age increased from 25 to 30.

While fertility is declining all over the world, the impact on population change is uneven. Women still have an average of more than six children in a few African countries, while the average woman in South Korea and Singapore now has less than one child. Median ages, meanwhile, range from 14 in Niger to older than 50 in Monaco and the Vatican.

Source: In some countries, immigration accounted for all population growth between 2000 and 2020

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‘Not a back-door entry to citizenship’ Marc Miller stresses importance of caps on international students

2024/07/15 Leave a comment

His messaging continues to get clearer and firmer:

The era of uncapped intake of international students is over, federal immigration minister Marc Miller said during a visit to Calgary, adding the cost of lost revenue borne by post-secondary institutions from students who would have been enrolled must be replaced by provincial investment in education.

“We have to make this a system that is more quality-oriented,” Miller told Postmedia.

“We have to make sure that we have more diversity, more qualified, more talented bunch of people coming into the country, and to make sure that they know exactly what they’re getting into — Canada is not a cheap place to live in.”

Miller’s comments on the federal government’s renewed approach to immigration came in an interview on Saturday following a ceremony at Stampede where 25 people were granted Canadian citizenship. The special guests at the event included Miller and Mayor Jyoti Gondek.

Miller stressed the path to citizenship for those people had been a long, grinding one. “And they’re going to make Canada even better than what it is already the best country in the world.” But he also emphasized citizenship was a privilege and not a right for everyone who entered the country.

He added: “We need to take a step back and look at the historic volumes of people coming here and their impact on housing and health care, on education and the infrastructure needs of this country,” while recognizing, “that a lot of those people are necessary to maintain the health-care system that we have as part of our national identity.”

Source: ‘Not a back-door entry to citizenship’ Marc Miller stresses importance of caps on international students

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Canadian Immigration Tracker- May 2024 update

2024/07/13 Leave a comment

Highlights

Permanent Residents increased but percentage of TR2PR slipped to 53 percent of all Permanent Residents. 

Asylum claimants stable at about 16,000 per month.

Study permit applications increased (seasonal). Study permit web interests have declined by over 25 percent the past year, January to June).

IMP numbers have increased while TFWP numbers have decreased save for those with LMIA.

Citizenship numbers increased. 

Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/canadian-immigration-tracker-key-slides-may-2024-pdf/270213627

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Business acumen is the antidote to the political backlash against migration

2024/07/13 Leave a comment

Interesting initiative, similar to Talent Beyond Boundaries:

…Some of those businesses, including Saint-Gobain, Colas, Purolator, Lafarge and Fragomen, are already participating in a new partnership launched by the France Canada Chamber of Commerce (Ontario), or FCCCO, this past February.

Project Starfish – the initiative’s name is a nod to returning stranded starfish to the sea – is working with the IOM to provide companies with access to globally displaced talent. Migrants, meanwhile, benefit from job opportunities that allow them to immediately contribute to the Canadian economy. The workers, who originally hail from Djibouti, Costa Rica and Mexico, only arrive in Canada after securing a job and a work permit.

“Virtual Interviews and recruitments are ongoing by companies,” said Riva Walia, founding managing director of FCCCO, adding that 52 candidates were being considered for various jobs as of last week.

Ms. Walia and Sanjay Tugnait, president and chief executive of Fairfax Digital Services, are also conducting a roadshow to solicit more corporate participation in Project Starfish.

“Canada is the best in class when it comes to matching work force needs with a migration policy,” Ms. Pope said. “And that gives Canada a competitive edge compared to other countries. That will become more and more relevant as we see these demographic trends become more and more acute.”…

Source: Business acumen is the antidote to the political backlash against migration

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Recent immigrants suffer in Canada’s weakening job market

2024/07/13 Leave a comment

Of note:

Newer immigrants are struggling as the Canadian labour market goes through a rough patch.

The unemployment rate for recent immigrants – those who became permanent residents within the last five years – was 12.6 per cent in June, an increase of four percentage points from a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada. (All figures in this piece are three-month moving averages, unadjusted for seasonality.)

It’s a very different story for those born in Canada. Their unemployment rate was 5.5 per cent last month – up slightly from 5 per cent in June, 2023.

The gap in jobless rates between these groups is the largest since August, 2014.

The labour market has softened over the past two years year as companies struggle with higher interest rates, making them more hesitant to hire. At the same time, the Canadian population has soared – largely because of strong immigration – and led to an infusion of job seekers….

Source: Recent immigrants suffer in Canada’s weakening job market

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AI Can Fix Immigration, Low Fertility & Retirements

2024/07/12 1 Comment

While I believe that AI holds great potential, this analysis is overly optimistic in the shorter term. Longer-term, much more likely:

AI-enabled automation may hold the key to solving three major problems: immigration, low fertility rates and retirements. But strangely, automation is not a planned policy solution to these and related problems. Why there were all sorts of problems with how the US federal government handled the Covid 19 pandemic, Operation Warp Speed was not one of them. Should AI-enabled automation receive the same kind of investment priority the vaccine received – instead of how defensively everyone treats “automation”? Remember that Operation Warp Speed “was a public-private partnership initiated by the United States government to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.” Is this a model for investments in AI and automation?

AI & Immigration

For example, instead of making economic arguments for why the US (and other countries) need immigrants, why not sidestep the argument with a massive federal investment in automation designed to contribute directly to economic growth? Is there a public-private partnership opportunity here? Obviously many companies are pursuing automation at breakneck speed. They want to save money and increase profitability by reducing their dependency on humans. Progress is impressive. But the suggestion here is a massive public-private partnership to accelerate and focus automation on the economic holes immigration is intended to fill.

Obviously, there are many reasons why people come to the US and other developed countries. The economic argument is not to diminish any of those motivations. Instead, the hypothesis is that the economic arguments around immigration might be framed very differently than they are today. We know, for example, that many immigrants come to the US to avoid political prosecution, violence and because they want better lives for their families. All good, but the economic arguments that politicians make about the need for more immigration might be influenced by warp speed investments in automation. Of course, since “politicians” are heat-seeking missiles to money and power, it’s impossible to know if they’d even entertain arguments that don’t perfectly fit their personal agendas. But that aside, there are opportunities to leverage AI-enabled automation to address some of the economic requirements that immigration might – or might not – satisfy.

AI & Low Fertility Rates

Let’s now look at human reproduction:

“The general fertility rate in the United States decreased by 3% from 2022, reaching a historic low. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, following a brief 1% increase from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the rate consistently decreased by 2% annually.”

(Note that “the fertility rate measures the number of live births per 1,000 women within the childbearing age range, often 15-44 years old.”)

What does this mean?

“A prolonged US total fertility rate this low – specifically, a rate substantially below 2 – would lead to slower population growth, which could in turn cause slower economic growth and present fiscal challenges. While the decline presents a fairly new challenge to the United States, other high-income countries have sustained below replacement level fertility for some years now and have attempted policies to mitigate that trend.”

Automation can help mitigate the trends. AI can provide nuanced efficiencies.

Is automation an answer to aging societies? Well, if there’s machine to replace a non-existent human – so long as the human needs to be replaced – is that all bad? All of the worry about aging societies shrinking because of low birth rates can perhaps be relieved through automation.

Retirements

The same argument that applies to low fertility applies to retirements, early or otherwise. What does it matter if someone retires from a job that can be automated?

We’re told that retirements are increasing at a pace never before seen:

“Today, the number of retirees is surging at a remarkable pace, outpacing the influx of new workers. This trend is leading to an unparalleled aging of America’s population, bringing about significant transformations in the workforce, economy, and the global mobility industry.”

Implications?

“The demand for workers continues to be robust, with approximately two job openings available for every unemployed individual. And with more than 75 million baby boomers retiring sooner rather than later, it’s clear that employers will need a strong workforce plan for replacing exiting workers.

“Meeting the workforce gap presents a considerable challenge. Relying solely on Gen X workers is not enough, and many millennials may lack essential work experience. Foreign-born workers could face immigration hurdles, and not all roles are suitable for flexible or remote workers.”

If ever there was a role for automation, this is it.

Automation Policy

I’ve discussed this before:

“Do we need tax preparers? Car salespersons? Loan officers? Automation has only begun, and as more and more employees call it quits, automation may take their place faster than we think. Why wouldn’t Uber want to eliminate their biggest headache – drivers – with autonomous vehicles? Why wouldn’t all companies want to deploy ‘workers’ that work 24/7, never need vacations, never join unions and never get sick? Checkout clerks? Postal workers? Gas station attendants (almost gone now)? And many more.”

Honeywell reports some survey results that focus on robotics:

“The productivity gains that we see from … robotics have increased,” said John Dillon … ‘the technology has gotten better … (and) the cost of not automating has gotten higher.’

“That’s because a warehouse that might typically require 2,000 workers could deploy technologies and warehouse execution software to instead operate with only 200 people.”

Automation may be the answer to many economic problems. In 1982 (!), the government believed in the power of automation through “federal efforts to encourage automation (which included): (1) financial incentives for private sector action; (2) research responsibilities; (3) technology transfer mechanisms; (4) support of engineering education; and (5) the development of standards to facilitate integration of diverse components of automation systems.” But today – 40 years later – here’s the question heard over and over again: “what should the government do about the coming automation apocalypse?”

Automation and its closest friend “AI,” are not the apocalypse. They’re solutions to some tough economic problems the US and developed countries face. Yes, there will be job displacement and perfectly timing the adoption of automation to immigration, fertility rates and retirements is impossible. But the hypotheses should at least be tested. It may be that planned automation can reduce some economic stress — maybe a lot of stress. The technology is ready. The companies are ready. But will the politicians support Operation Automation? Or are they focused on other things?

Source: AI Can Fix Immigration, Low Fertility & Retirements

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Canada to stop processing study permits for colleges, universities that fail to track international students

2024/07/11 Leave a comment

The federal government having to take on a role the provinces should be doing given in their jurisdiction :

The federal government plans to suspend processing of study permits from post-secondary students if the schools fail to keep track of international students’ enrolment. 

The proposed regulations would compel colleges and universities to report to the federal Immigration Department whether a student is attending school and complying with all study permit requirements.

The move is part of recent attempts to restore confidence in Canada’s international student program.

Under the plan unveiled in the Canada Gazette, students must also apply for a new study permit whenever they want to switch schools, and before the start date of the new study program.

In flexing its muscle to ensure compliance, the federal government is treading a fine line, as governance of the education system falls under provincial jurisdiction.

The Immigration Department is responsible for the entry of international students, establishing the conditions that study permit holders must meet while in Canada, and deciding whether a study permit should be issued.

Although Ottawa only grants study permits to “designated learning institutions,” it’s the provinces that designate if a college or university is authorized to admit international students.

As a result, federal officials have had a tough time monitoring what goes on after a student enters Canada. They don’t know if a student is enrolled in the school named in their study permits or if they are actually studying until they need to extend a permit or apply for postgraduation work permits….

Source: Canada to stop processing study permits for colleges, universities that fail to track international students

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Posts linking crime to immigration in Canada are unfounded

2024/07/11 2 Comments

Of note and unhelpful misrepresentation of the data:
Crime rates in Canada have been on a slight rise over the last decade, but there is no evidence linking this to immigration encouraged by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government. Research shows Canadian immigrants commit fewer offenses overall than native-born citizens.

“The rise in violent crime in Canada coincides with Trudeau’s record breaking immigration levels every year since he was elected much of which is from the islamic world,” says a June 22, 2024 Facebook post.

The post includes a graph from the data-gathering site Statista that shows the violent crime rate in Canada fell between 2001 and 2014 before climbing again after 2015 — the year Trudeau assumed office. The same graph has circulated in multiple Canadian Facebook groups.

Screenshot of a Facebook post taken July 9, 2024

Screenshot of a Facebook post taken July 9, 2024

The Liberal prime minister’s term has been marked by a push to increase immigration, triggering debates about the availability of housing, food and jobs — as well as misinformation.

The Statista chart cited in the posts roughly matches data on violent, police-reported crime from Statistics Canada (archived here and here). However, government data do not indicate a relationship with immigration, which has steadily risen since the 1950s (archived here).

This screenshot taken July 9, 2024 shows a Statistics Canada graph depicting police-reported crime between 1962 and 2022

This screenshot taken July 9, 2024 shows a Statistics Canada graph depicting immigration rates from 1871 to 2021, as well as future projections

“Anyone can find a correlation between any two things,” said Frank Cormier, a criminologist at the University of Manitoba (archived here). “In-correlation most certainly does not always — actually very rarely — indicates causation.”

He added that research shows “areas that have higher rates of immigration actually tend to see lower crime rates.”

“So, there is absolutely zero evidence that links higher rates of immigration with higher rates of crime,” he said July 4, 2024.

Examining crime, immigration

Researchers have for decades found an inverse relationship between immigration and crime in Canada.

A 2009 study from the University of Toronto found any trends towards youthful criminal activity among immigrants in the city decreased between two generations growing up in the 1970s and 1990s (archived here).

More recently, a 2020 paper from Toronto Metropolitan University examining crime rates between 1976 and 2011 also found the proportion of foreign-born residents was “either not significantly associated or negatively associated with changes in crime rates within Canadian cities” (archived here).

Cormier said one possible explanation is that immigrants must abide by the law to preserve their sometimes tenuous status within the country.

“Adults who are immigrants know that if they commit a crime that is serious enough, they face deportation,” he said. “So, the average immigrant has far more to lose than the average non-immigrant in Canada.”

Cormier said new arrivals also tend to place a higher emphasis on familial bonds and education, which generally lead people away from criminal activity.

Nicolas Ajzenman, an assistant professor in the economics department at McGill University (archived here), agreed that in Europe and the Americas, the effect of immigration on crime is practically non-existent.

However, he emphasized that immigrants are a heterogeneous demographic and that no trend applies globally.

“There are also a few papers documenting a positive effect, especially when the regulations to work legally are tougher,” he said in a July 4, 2024 email, noting that some research has found evidence of increased property crime rates.

A 2013 study found this trend in the United Kingdom, for example (archived here).

But property crime is not the same as violent crime, the category mentioned in the social media posts — and Ajzenman said immigrants who can fully integrate into local labor markets are usually associated with a reduction in delinquency.

Comparing crime statistics

Cormier said data alone do not paint a complete picture of crime, since they only measure incidents recorded by law enforcement.

“If police concentrate their efforts looking at certain types of crime or against certain parts of a city, then crime rates in those areas or on those certain crimes will tend to go up quite significantly,” he said.

Cormier said the Statista graph shared online also shows a relatively small date range, implying that crime has jumped dramatically in the past 10 years.

However, more complete data from Statistics Canada indicate crime reports are still below the level seen in 1990s.

“We’re still not anywhere close to where things were before,” Cormier said.

Statistics Canada reported in 2018 that while there was not one single cause for decreasing crime near the end of the 20th century, the dip could be related to an aging population, changing police strategies and shifting attitudes toward illegal behavior (archived here).

Researchers and news reports say Canada’s violent crime rate has risen since 2015 due to a combination of factors, including waning social safety nets — especially following the Covid-19 pandemic — over-reliance on police and firearms entering from the United States.

Read more of AFP’s reporting on misinformation in Canada here.

Source: Posts linking crime to immigration in Canada are unfounded

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