LILLEY: Poilievre promises to cap immigration, tie it to housing

The devil, as in all areas of policy, and particularly in immigration and citizenship policy, will lie in the details and how a Conservative government deals with pressures from the business community and provincial governments:

Part of Pierre Poilievre’s plan to deal with Canada’s housing crisis will be to cap immigration. The Conservative leader said if he wins the next election, he’ll bring sanity back to Canada’s immigration system.

Poilievre was speaking with reporters ahead of Parliament’s return from the summer break. He said that when MPs return to Ottawa next Monday, he will try and defeat the government and force an election as soon as possible.

If he wins the election, he promises across-the-board changes on immigration.

“We will cap population growth so that the housing stock always grows faster than the population,” Poilievre said.

In the middle of a housing crisis, at a time when we are bringing in more than 1 million people per year, his statement sounds like common sense. While Poilievre said exact numbers would come before the next election, he said this policy idea is really about math, not immigration.

“We’re building like 240,000 homes, that’s like a 1.4% increase in our housing supply. You can’t grow the population faster than that, unless you’re going to have worse housing shortages,” he said.

“Under Trudeau and the NDP, we’ve been growing the population by almost 3%, but we grow the housing stock by 1.4%. No wonder we’re running out of homes.”

He also said he’d scale back the international student program.

“We’re going to bring home the international student system we had before Justin Trudeau. Which was a modest number of young people who were extremely promising could come here and study, and if they excel, they followed the law, they learned English or French, they could join the Canadian family,” Poilievre said.

He noted stories showing more than 20 international students living in the basement of one home in Brampton as an example of how off the rails the program has become the last few years. There were just over 350,00 foreign students in Canada when the Trudeau Liberals took over in 2015, but more than 1 million last year.

It’s not just the housing market that is also being impacted by the massive swell in immigration, both permanent and temporary. The most recent unemployment report from Statistics Canada showed unemployment growing from 6.4% in July to 6.6% in August, and a big part of that was population growth driven by immigration.

We added 96,400 people to the working age population, meaning those 15 and older. That’s a massive number in just one month, but it’s been going on like this for the last couple of years.

While there were some new jobs added, they were mostly part-time and didn’t keep pace with population growth. There were 44,000 full-time jobs lost last month, and we added 60,000 people to the unemployment rolls.

Statistics Canada has been warning about this for more than a year, noting time and again that job growth is not keeping pace with population growth.

“Given this pace of population growth, employment growth of approximately 50,000 per month is required for the employment rate to remain constant,” the agency warned a year ago.

We haven’t been hitting those numbers, and that’s why our unemployment rate has gone from 5% to 6.6%.

“That’s not even a question of whether you support or not immigration, it’s a question of whether you support mathematics,” Poilievre said when speaking about the housing crunch, but it applies to the impact on the job market as well.

Last April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that we were bringing in people faster than we could absorb them. Since he made those comments, we’ve added more than 500,000 people to Canada.

How does it make sense to keep immigration levels where they are when we are facing a housing shortage, a housing affordability crisis due to a lack of housing and growing unemployment.

It simply doesn’t and to carry on isn’t fair to anyone.

The Trudeau Liberals made this mess; they don’t seem to be in a hurry to fix it. Maybe it’s time to give Poilievre a turn.

Source: LILLEY: Poilievre promises to cap immigration, tie it to housing

U.S. border patrol reports record number of encounters with migrants at the Canadian border

Quite a shift from most coming North to many going South:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection says it recorded a record-high number of encounters with migrants between border posts on the Canada-U.S. border between October 2023 and July of this year.

It’s a pattern experts say could be a problem for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government as the question of illegal immigration heats up in a close-fought U.S. election.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) records an “encounter” in its database when it comes across someone who is inadmissable to the U.S., or when border patrol officers find someone who has illegally crossed the border into the U.S. between border posts.

CBP reported encountering 19,498 migrants between border posts on the northern border between October 2023 and July 2024 — 15,612 of them in the Swanton Sector, which runs along the Quebec’s border with New York and Vermont.

While the numbers still pale in comparison with the U.S southern border, that’s more than twice as many as the 7,630 encountered between border posts during the same time period the previous year.

The year before that, CBP reported encountering only 2,238 migrants between border posts at the northern border.

U.S. news coverage of the surge in migration over its northern border intensified over the summer. In an interview with Fox News on Aug. 22, after complaining about illegal migration over the southern border, former president Donald Trump said the U.S. now had a problem on the northern border with migrants coming in from Canada.

Kelly Sundberg of Mount Royal University said the matter could become a political hot potato for the Trudeau government, regardless of who becomes the next president of the United States.

“I hate to admit it, but I think that Donald Trump is right on this, that there is a need to focus north,” said Sundberg, who worked for many years as an enforcement officer with the Canada Border Services Agency.

“But it’s not just the Trump campaign. The [Kamala Harris] campaign has indicated also that they have acknowledged that there’s concerns on the northern border.”

RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier said “there isn’t a day or night where there isn’t a crossing.” In Quebec alone, the RCMP intercepts an average of more than 100 people per week on the Canadian side of the border and Poirier said that’s only a portion of those headed for the U.S….

Source: U.S. border patrol reports record number of encounters with migrants at the Canadian border

Europe’s largest economy just enacted border closures. Will others follow?

Of note, undermining Schengen:

The German government says it is cracking down on irregular migration and crime following recent extremist attacks, and plans to extend temporary border controls to all nine of its frontiers next week.

Last month, a deadly knife attack by a Syrian asylum-seeker in Soligen killed three people. The perpetrator claimed to be inspired by the Islamic State group. In June, a knife attack by an Afghan immigrant left a police officer dead and four other people wounded.

The border closures are set to last six months and are threatening to test European unity. Most of Germany’s neighbors are fellow members of the European Union, a 27-country bloc based on the principles of free trade and travel. And Germany – the EU’s economic motor in the heart of Europe – shares more borders with other countries than any other member state.

The Polish prime minister on Tuesday denounced the closures as “unacceptable” and Austria said it won’t accept migrants rejected by Germany….

Source: Europe’s largest economy just enacted border closures. Will others follow?

Chris Selley: Canada’s ‘immigration consensus’ endures, despite Ottawa’s worst efforts

Correct interpretation IMO. However, the current government’s approach undermines public trust in government competence in immigration and other areas, even as some corrective action is taking place:

….Environics also inquired as to why the shift occurred. And it’s very obviously for one major reason: The housing crisis. In 2022, 15 per cent of respondents agreed that “immigrants drive up housing prices (and lead to) less housing for other Canadians”; in 2023, 38 per cent agreed.

And they’re right. Add demand for a scarce product and prices go up. Canada absolutely should be able to cope with current or higher levels of immigration, and indeed thrive off of it. We’re not exactly short on land or high on population density. But our politicians have never been more motivated to address housing scarcity, and the results have been utterly dismal. For heaven’s sake there were fewer home starts in June 2024 than in June 2022, according to CMHC data.

On the issues more typically associated with anti-immigration sentiment per se, the Environics data show no alarming spikes at all. Only four per cent of respondents cited “security risk” as a factor influencing their desire for less immigration. One-quarter said “immigrants are a drain on public finances (or) cost too much,” or are “bad for (the) economy (and) take jobs from other Canadians” — up from 23 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, which is hardly any change at all in the polling world.

In 2022 and 2023 alike, just 19 per cent of respondents told Environics there were “already too many people in Canada” — the strongest suggestion, I submit, that what we’re seeing here isn’t a backlash against immigration, let alone against individual immigrants and immigrant populations, but a call for some restraint until we get our crap together. Just nine per cent of respondents told Environics they thought immigrants make their community worse; 42 per cent said they make it better.

For 30 years, Environics has asked Canadians whether they think “there are too many immigrants coming into this country who are not adopting Canadian values” — something you hear often from people who could fairly be called anti-immigration. In 1993, 72 per cent of Canadians agreed with that proposition. Three decades later, amid this so-called “backlash,” the figure was 48 per cent.

Especially at a time when Canadians seem more angst-ridden about the country’s economic future than I can ever remember — potentially fertile soil for xenophobic sentiments, as history shows — these don’t strike me as alarming numbers at all. That’s especially true considering we’ve been admitting more immigrants per capita than at any time since the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, and watching tens of thousands of people traipse illegally across the Canada-U.S. border claiming asylum, and been lectured about racism and intolerance by a government that has basically conceded all of its opponents’ points on the immigration file.

Wanting less immigration isn’t inherently a “backlash” unless the optimal number of immigrants is infinite, which it obviously is not. We have enough problems to deal with without inventing new ones. The immigration consensus lives, despite the federal government’s worst efforts.

Source: Chris Selley: Canada’s ‘immigration consensus’ endures, despite Ottawa’s worst efforts

How did a Toronto terror suspect enter Canada? Immigration minister offers first details

Note of realism in terms of border security but will still raise questions about vetting of international students and where extra vetting may be warranted:

…“I think our American partner would be highly disappointed to see elected officials firing their mouths off about and speculating about this case and its outcome,” Miller said. “We owe it to Canadians to keep them safe, to actually let the process unfold.”

Miller also said that borders cannot be made 100 per cent secure.

“No one can pretend and stand honestly in front of you and say that a well determined actor can’t come to this country, and that’s why we have the security apparatuses that we have in this country,” Miller said.

Source: How did a Toronto terror suspect enter Canada? Immigration minister offers first details

Angus-Reid – Temporary Foreign Workers: Canadians support reduced program; few want workers to have path to citizenship

Although not covered in the summary, the data tables highlight that non-white are more critical than white (I would have preferred an immigrant, born in Canada comparisons):

Part One: Views of Temporary Foreign Workers program

  • Canadians say they hear more negative things than positive ones
  • Most say number of workers too high
  • Plurality say program should continue with changes

Part Two: Who benefits and loses from TFW program

  • Most see a boon for business at the cost of labour market and housing
  • Liberal supporters most positive, cross-partisan concern about impact on housing

Part Three: Concerns about treatment of workers, but little support for citizenship

  • Majority say businesses that can’t afford to pay wages Canadians will take should close
  • Many also say Canadians don’t want to do the jobs TFWs perform
  • Majority say businesses treat TFWs unfairly; half say government exploits them
  • Citizenship for TFWs not supported by many

Source: Temporary Foreign Workers: Canadians support reduced program; few want workers to have path to citizenship

Tao | Canada is scapegoating migrants. Believe us, migrants are feeling it

It is more anti impact of immigration numbers than anti immigration per se, but not surprising that some perceive it that way with the resulting impact on mental health:

…We seem to have forgotten, over the course of Canadian history, the separation of loved ones by explicit and implicit race-based laws. Today’s social media algorithms shield us from a history replete with narratives of turning away boats and refoulement to torture and punishment and the destruction of migrant businesses and communities. Less viscerally, exclusionary bars were placed on individuals that had the direct impact of separating families, still today healing from the trauma of generations past. 

This collective amnesia, with an election looming and amidst shifting global political tides, has seemingly replaced the amnesty we were initially proposing for those who had served as guardian angels in times of need. In January, the federal government set an intake cap on international student permit applications, limiting the number of approvals to 360,000, down 35 per cent from 2023. Just last week, the government announced it will be reducing the number of temporary foreign workers and that it is considering the number of permanent residents Canada accepts each year. Surgery is indeed being done with a hammer, and with not enough consultation of those migrants that the changes impact.

The “low skilled” workers, who on one hand have been found to work in slavelike conditions and on the other hand are being told they are taking Canadian jobs and homes with that slavelike salary, have received a clear message of: “we don’t need you anymore.” 

As the dialogue shifts more toward displacement and deportation, and as descendents of migrants and those who work in migrant spaces, we want to highlight the harmful impacts that this culture of scapegoating, meme-ing, and generally, mobbing is having on the mental health of migrants.  

We have seen firsthand the mental health impacts that Canada’s move toward anti-immigration policy and sentiment is having on individuals and families, especially our clients, within the context of this dialogue where immigrants are cited as the source of many societal woes. …

Will Tao is a Canadian Immigration and Refugee Lawyer (J.D., LLM Student) and the son of first-generation immigrants to Canada. Karina Juma is an articling student (J.D./MA) and daughter of first generation immigrants to Canada.

Source: Opinion | Canada is scapegoating migrants. Believe us, migrants are feeling it

Tens of thousands of international students who spent years finding a pathway to permanent residency are out of options

Major and inhumane policy failure, whipsawing international students between government encouraged expectations and subsequent government imposed reality:

…That same year, a series of policy reversals and changes began to take place. Ottawa stopped granting extensions to PGWPs and noted that granting permanent residency to temporary residents in bulk was a one-time emergency pandemic measure. The government also abruptly changed its criteria for permanent resident (PR) selection in the Express Entry system – a score-based application process that determines eligibility for permanent residency. It began prioritizing French speakers and people with job experience in health care, skilled trades, agriculture, transportation and STEM – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – fields as opposed to those with Canadian-specific education and experience.

“Nobody knows the probability of a successful permanent residency transition now because the PR selection system has become highly non-transparent and unpredictable,” explained Mikal Skuterud, an economist at the University of Waterloo. “What we do know is that the government is not going to grant extensions to expiring visas so there will now be many, many people in situations where they either remain in Canada undocumented or leave.”

There is no precise data that reflect exactly how many foreign graduates currently holding PGWPs will see their visas expire this year. The Naujawan Support Network – a labour advocacy organization based in Brampton, Ont. – estimates that approximately 70,000 PGWP holders will not obtain permanent residency before their visas expire and be forced to leave Canada in 2024 and 2025.

Prof. Skuterud estimates that approximately 131,000 permits could expire this year – if one were to assume that most PGWPs issued had three-year durations. But he noted that an exact figure was tough to determine….

Source: Tens of thousands of international students who spent years finding a pathway to permanent residency are out of options

Teachers say immigrants not to blame as Quebec links teacher shortage to newcomers

Interesting that have not seen similar stories from other provinces, the vast majority of whom have higher levels of immigrants:

Quebec’s school year started on a familiar note: thousands of teaching spots were unfilled, and the provincial government had to defend itself for its failure to solve the problem.

But as politicians continue to point to immigration — a common justification for the province’s ills — as the main culprit, education experts say newcomers are not the underlying cause of the widespread teacher shortages.

“There has been a significant increase in the number of children who need a teacher because of the explosion in the number of immigrants,” Quebec Premier François Legault told reporters last week, despite also mentioning working conditions and salaries as other reasons the education system is lacking personnel.

In mid-August, Quebec Education Minister Bernard Drainville said there were 20,000 more students enrolled than last year, about 80 per cent of whom are newcomers to the province. With about 5,700 teaching positions unfilled, he called on the federal government to “get control of the immigration process to reduce temporary immigration in Quebec, particularly asylum seekers.”

Statistics from last week showed 1,957 teaching positions across the education system had yet to be filled.

Drainville’s math, however, doesn’t add up, says Diane Querrien, professor in the department of French studies at Montreal’s Concordia University.

“Even if you go with the worst-case scenario, meaning that the 20,000 more students are all immigrants, it doesn’t make sense,” Querrien said, explaining that dividing that figure by the roughly 5,700 unstaffed positions would mean hiring one teacher for groups of only three to four students.

The Canadian Press asked the Quebec Education Department for clarity, but it did not respond to a request for comment.

Immigration, Querrien added, doesn’t explain why some outlying regions, which receive fewer immigrants than do big cities, are also short on teachers — and have been for years.

Mélanie Hubert, president of teachers union Fédération autonome de l’enseignement, says it’s true that a rise in the number of immigrant children requires more staff in French-language schools. But Quebec has done little to replace a generation of retiring teachers, she lamented.

“As long as we have a lot of people retiring and fewer people coming out of university, we’re bound to have a shortage of teachers. And that’s something we could have planned for,” she said.

“Maybe we wouldn’t be in the situation we’re in now, and we’d be able to absorb the number of students arriving from immigrant families.”

A teacher shortage is also being felt in the province’s English schools, despite the fact Quebec’s strict language laws force the vast majority of immigrants to enrol their children in the French system.

Steven Le Sueur​, president of the Quebec Provincial Association of Teachers, said the uptick in immigrant students has had “minimal” impact on Quebec’s English schools and yet they are still searching for qualified teachers. As of Friday, Le Sueur​ said 200 positions were unfilled.

Poor working conditions and low pay over the past two decades has resulted in fewer people entering teaching programs and many educators throwing in the towel shortly after they enter the system. “We’re losing 25 per cent of our new teachers within the first five years, so it’s something that needs to be addressed,” Le Sueur​ said.

University of Sherbrooke professor Philippa Parks, who studies the reasons teachers leave the profession, thinks Le Sueur​’s 25 per cent estimate might be on the conservative side; she said the statistics vary, but it could be as high as 50 per cent.

Immigration is “a drop in the bucket,” Parks said. “I think it’s a little bit of dog whistling and disingenuous here because it is one of many factors.”

The main one, she said, is teachers not getting the support and training needed in the classroom, especially after reforms bringing students with learning and physical disabilities who had previously been educated separately into the same classrooms as the general population.

The other issue, Parks says, is that teaching is no longer the middle-class profession with status it used to be. “I started teaching in 1998 and I could buy a house. I actually put down a down payment with my salary as a teacher and of course things have changed dramatically.”

Despite recent salary increases — 17.4 per cent over five years — after thousands of teachers went on strike in the province last year, Le Sueur​ and Parks say it will take time to attract more teachers to the profession and more needs to be done to make the day-to-day lives on educators easier.

University of Ottawa emeritus professor François Rocher, who researches immigration and Quebec nationalism, says the current teacher shortage is “just another example of how Coalition Avenir Québec has framed the issue of immigration.”

“Immigration has been used as a cause for many other ‘problems’ that we have seen in Quebec,” he said, adding that the CAQ has also pinned blame on immigrants for the province’s housing crisis, a decline in the use of French in Quebec and increased demands for health-care services.

Source: Teachers say immigrants not to blame as Quebec links teacher shortage to newcomers

Terry Newman: Trudeau’s Canada safe for alleged terrorist targeting New York Jews

One of the first pieces in mainstream media that ventures into country of origin and values arguments against immigration in addition to housing, healthcare etc:

…Canada needs to slow immigration for a number of reasons: lack of housing (it’s unfair to bring immigrants here when they have nowhere to live), rising unemployment, increasing social unrest, and decreasing social cohesion. At the very least, Canada needs to slow immigration from countries whose residents are currently hostile to Canada and the United States. This isn’t rocket science, and the notion that even discussing immigration in any way makes you a racist needs to be put to bed once and for all. There are countries with governments and citizens who hate our way of life and want to destroy it, and they are quite vocal about it. Canada needs a government that is mature enough to recognize this reality in order to keep citizens safe. This does not make us less empathetic. It makes us smart.

Source: Terry Newman: Trudeau’s Canada safe for alleged terrorist targeting New York Jews