Elon Musk vs. Stephen Miller: Washington preps for battle on high-tech immigration

Will be interesting to watch. I’m betting on Citizen Musk but we shall see:

High tech companies — with Elon Musk seemingly on their side — are gearing up to push the incoming Trump administration to let more high-skilled immigrants into the U.S., setting up a potential conflict with the nativist figures in Trump’s orbit who want to minimize immigration at all costs.

During Donald Trump’s first term, Silicon Valley firms tried to impress upon Washington the importance of high-skilled immigration. They were stymied by people like Stephen Miller, a key figure in the first Trump administration now slated to serve as White House deputy chief of staff for policy.

But the tech lobby now has a powerful new ally in Musk, a key Trump donor and close confidant who since the election has called for fixes that would make it easier for “super talented people” to immigrate.

Other newly minted Trump backers in Silicon Valley, including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have placed high-skilled immigration at the center of their Washington agenda. Their rising influence has already had an impact, prompting Trump himself to float giving green cards to talented students earlier this year.

“We definitely see it as an opportunity,” said Linda Moore, president and chief executive of industry group TechNet.

Silicon Valley views the incoming administration and GOP congressional majority as its best chance in years to pass policies that let in more immigrants with rare skills in science, technology, engineering and math. Though it feels counterintuitive, Trump’s antipathy toward illegal immigration could leave him uniquely positioned to argue for more of the legal kind — especially if it comes wrapped in an argument about making America more competitive.

“In the same way that it took Nixon to go to China — because he was tough on China — President Trump may have an interesting opportunity” to get the GOP onboard with high-skilled immigration, said Vivek Chilukuri, director of the technology and national security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.

But tech lobbyists and Musk aren’t the only ones working Trump on STEM immigration. Hardcore immigration restrictionists — informally led by Miller — are also in the president-elect’s ear, cautioning that foreign STEM workers take American jobs and depress wages in high-tech industries. They prevailed during Trump’s previous presidency, when under Miller’s influence, Trump slashed the number of green cards issued and denied applications and extensions for H-1B and other skilled visas, causing some companies to lose skilled workers.

Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, believes Trump is “definitely going to be more receptive to certain kinds of legal immigration expansion” than he was in the past. Like other restrictionists, he’s warily eyeing the emerging influence of tech billionaires on the president-elect — and warning of consequences if Trump and congressional Republicans cave to their immigration asks.

“These tech lobbyists think they’re going to be feeding at the trough, just making all kinds of demands because Elon is going to support them. They’re in for a big surprise,” said Stein. He added that Trump “has to walk a very fine line so that people don’t feel betrayed.”

Other restrictionists are also alarmed. “Will the Trump administration kowtow to Silicon Valley CEOs or will it protect American tech workers? We shall see,” said Eric Ruark, director of research at anti-immigration group NumbersUSA.

The tech lobby has long urged Washington to boost the amount of STEM immigrants allowed into the country — typically through increases to the annual cap of H-1B and other visas, or through programs that would increase the availability of green cards or attach them to diplomas earned by foreign students. From microchip companies to emerging artificial intelligence firms, a wide range of tech interests warn there simply aren’t enough tech experts to staff their facilities or achieve America’s long-term strategic goals.

“AI, quantum, biotechnology — we can’t snap our fingers tomorrow and create the STEM PhDs that we need to compete in all of these areas,” said Chilukuri, whose nonprofit is funded in part by tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, as well as tech billionaires like Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms

Former minister Kenney used the terms “bogus claimants” vs bonafide, Poilievre uses the term those who lie:

With gridlock in Parliament set to continue, Poilievre said Conservatives “will make accommodations to quickly pass a border plan if it goes towards fixing Trudeau’s broken border.”

He said Canada should also cap the number of asylum seekers as it faces a significant influx in refugee claims.

Canada had nearly 250,000 refugee claims in the queue as of Sept. 30, 2024, having approved more than 33,000 claims between January and the end of September.

In all of 2023, Canada accepted 37,000 refugee claims, and in 2022, it accepted 28,000.

“I love real refugees,” Poilievre said. “Our country was built in large part by real refugees who were genuinely fleeing danger, like my wife. But I have no time for people who lie to come into our country, and that is the problem we have to cut off.”

Source: Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms

Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

Setting up expectations, dealing with the reality. We shall see:

Republican lawmakers are plotting a major revamp of immigration law and border restrictions, in a bid to deliver on one of President-elect Donald Trump’s signature issues. So far, their odds of going as big as conservatives want are looking bleak.

Despite controlling the House and Senate, the GOP faces major political hurdles down every possible path for enacting the illegal immigration crackdown that was one of their big election promises.

Immigration hardliners and those Republicans who have raised concerns about far-reaching restrictions on asylum or deportations are at odds over just how far to go on border security issues. The GOP will likely have a slim House majority — potentially with no room for error — to pull off immigration changes and will struggle to win over Senate Democrats who could filibuster legislation from the minority. Republicans have a potential procedural tool for sidestepping the filibuster — a process known as budget reconciliation — but it appears that rules governing the maneuver may prevent them from including a big revamp of immigration policy.

“We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican who has clashed with more hard-line conservatives over the issue. “What does a conference in the House want? What does the conference in the Senate want? What does President Trump want? And then that’s when we have a short window to be able to jam that all through.”

The looming struggle over immigration underscores the huge challenges Republicans face in delivering on their policy promises next year with a narrow margin in the House, the chaotic influence of Trump and internal divides even on issues that otherwise appear to unite the party….

Source: Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

Watt | The border wake-up call is ringing — bring on the drones, helicopters and patrols

Just as there is a risk in understating the expected income, there is a similar risk in overstating, as some premiers and commentators have done. But the times provide an opportunity to fix some of the things that need fixing from a Canadian perspective, recognizing that some is substantive and some performative:

…Because for all the supposed people or illicit goods that might flow between our borders, America can handle our “problem,” our traffic — we, on the other hand, cannot even begin to dream of sufficiently handling a mass influx of migrants across our border and into our cities.

We don’t have the resources, space, or public appetite. Moreover, right now, we don’t have clear and focused public discourse on this issue.

We don’t need a sober “reality check” when it comes to this debate. What should be — but evidently is not — abundantly clear to our political class is that Donald Trump will say anything — fact or fiction — to improve his bargaining position and get his way. What we need is a strong plan to reinforce our border. Because that is the only way to prepare and do what we need to do — kill two birds with one stone.

First, to show Trump we’re making progress on a critical political priority for his administration: border security. Second, to prepare for the potential influx of migrants that will look to head to Canada the minute he takes office.

That plan should consist of more drones, helicopters and patrols as the RCMP and our border agency has asked for — but it also must include stricter punishments for the phoney, unauthorized immigration consultants and human traffickers that prey on people’s lives and livelihoods.

Borders are lines in the sand. Symbolic by nature. That’s precisely why they’re such fertile ground for politicians to grandstand, to deceive, to promise then, let down.

It’s also why reinforcing them with action, not words, is what the Canadian public must demand.

Source: Opinion | The border wake-up call is ringing — bring on the drones, helicopters and patrols

Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years 

Some useful data that helps understand USA concerns and provides shared incentives for better managing the border.

…While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet committed to a plan for increasing Canadian border security, Quebec’s Premier François Legault has called for one.“I think now’s not the time to play at whether it’s true or not that our borders are not secure. I think it’s important that a plan be tabled,” Premier Legault told reporters.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Trump’s concerns with the U.S.-Canada borders are well founded. Her government may be sending law enforcement to the province’s shared border with Montana to develop a “specialized border patrol.”“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

Border crossings 

In fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 to September 2024), the number of U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) encounters at America’s northern border with Canada was nearly 200,000. Those at the U.S. border with Mexico, meanwhile, were 2.1 million.

There were just over 10 U.S. Border Patrol encounters along the Mexico-U.S. border for every one encounter along the Canada-U.S. border.

Encounters occur when the USBP locates individuals attempting to enter the country, either illegally between border posts or at official crossings without necessary paperwork like visas. It also includes those turned away because of public health rules, such as those put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Between 2022 and 2024, USBP encounters at the U.S.-Canada border nearly doubled, increasing 81 percent. Meanwhile, those at the Mexican border declined by 10 percent.

At both borders, single adults are the vast majority of those attempting to enter the U.S. At the U.S.-Canada border in 2022, single people numbered 92,737 or 84 percent of all USBP encounters. In 2024 they numbered 155,214 or 78 percent.

Families attempting to enter the U.S. unlawfully have increased remarkably.

At the Mexico-U.S. border, between 2022 and 2024, families rose from 23 to 41 percent of USBP encounters. At the Canadian border in 2022, they were just 13 percent of all encounters. This year they rose to 21 percent.

Who’s coming?

What’s also increased is both individuals and families travelling first to Canada, with the ultimate plan of making it across our southern border to the United States.

“When you see that, increasingly, the open border policies of Justin Trudeau [are] leading to people coming to Canada as a staging area to enter into the United States, to such a point that it has caught [the United States’] attention, we need to address those issues,” said Premier Smith this week.

The increase of USBP encounters at the northern U.S. border, compared to those in the U.S. south, gives some weight to this idea that migrants are increasingly using Canada’s less defended border as a first step to illegally enter the U.S.

As U.S.-Mexico border security has become tighter, human smugglers have increasingly advised clients to travel to the U.S. through the U.S.-Canada border, according to CBC reporting. Taxis services to drive migrants to New York City have reportedly boomed in New York State border towns.

In 2023, Indians were the single largest national group for attempts to cross the Canada-U.S. border, numbering 30,000.

From 2022 to 2023, USBC encounters with Venezuelans along our border increased the most relatively, from 201 to 1,375; followed by Peruvians from 148 to 662; and Mexicans from 3,221 to 11,121. Each relative increase was remarkably higher compared to those at the Mexico-U.S. border.

Other Central and South American nationals like Nicaraguans, Colombians, and Brazilians–whose countries are said to be facing a migration crisis–top the list for 2022 to 2023’s increased USBP encounters at the Canada-U.S. border. In 2023, encounters with Mexican, Nicaraguan, and Brazilian nationals at the Mexico-U.S. border actually declined, as those at Canada’s border rose remarkably.

Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, said Canada’s U.S. border presently represents an “extreme national security” vulnerability for his country….

Source: Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years

The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

Good long read and overview. Excerpt some of the most interesting comments:

…In the rush to find ways of taming Mr. Trump’s sudden fury about the Canadian border, experts are now calling for the revival of obscure and long-dormant bilateral bodies. Former public safety minister Marco Mendicino said one way to “send a very strong signal to the president-elect” is to immediately reconvene a meeting of the Canada-U.S. Cross-Border Crime Forum, which was revived after several years in abeyance last year.

The forum, composed of Canada’s public safety and justice ministers, and the U.S. secretary of homeland security and attorney-general, is a ready-made platform for sharing intelligence and addressing concerns about human and drug smuggling across the border.

“Being pro-active is crucial, because we want to transmit that we are in total alignment when it comes to shoring up the integrity of the border,” Mr. Mendicino said.

If Canadians often thought of their border with the U.S. as a kind of decorative ticker tape, the Trump administration appears to believe the border is more like a fishing net that is full of holes. And some of the numbers do suggest that our shared border is becoming more porous to migrants and drugs, as Mr. Trump alleged in his social media post.

Statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show that roughly twice as many suspected terrorists have tried to cross from Canada into the U.S. as have from Mexico in recent years.

The data are deeply concerning for Americans in the post-9/11 era and should be taken seriously and investigated by Canadian officials, said Michael Barutciski, a York University professor of international affairs.

As recently as September, he pointed out, a Pakistani man living in the Toronto area was arrested near the border in Ormstown, Que., in September on allegations he was plotting an Islamic State-inspired mass shooting on a Jewish centre in New York. The man entered Canada on a student visa last year.

“It doesn’t look good,” said Prof. Barutciski. “It’s a very sensitive issue and they often turn to Canada as sort of a weak point and they’re paranoid about that and we can’t deny that once in a while we do give them reasons to be afraid.”

Former Conservative public safety minister Peter Van Loan thinks the fear of Canadian terror strikes in the U.S. is overblown and that the perception is worth combatting while the issue is front and centre. After all, the data on terrorists reflect those who tried to enter the country and were prevented from doing so.

“It has been a long running misunderstanding among Americans that Canada has been a source of terrorists,” he said. “None of the 9/11 terrorists came from Canada. I continually ran into American politicians who believe they did come in through Canada, and the fact is, they did not. So Canada has a bit of a public relations issue there.”

The border is certainly under growing strain from irregular migrants – although the perception that they are more likely to be criminals has been harshly scrutinized. A recent U.S. study found that undocumented immigrants in Texas, at least, had lower rates of violent crime than U.S.-born citizens….

Source: The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

Of note:

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorships from groups of five or more people and community organizations to help clear a backlog of applications.

The notice was published on the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada website today.

The pause is effective immediately and runs until Dec. 31, 2025.

The government says applications received annually far outpace the number of spaces for private refugee sponsorships.

The government has set a target of admitting 23,000 privately sponsored refugees in its 2025-27 immigration plan, while the total refugee target for next year is just over 58,000 people…

Source: Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

McKinnon: The age of Canada’s exorbitant privilege is ending. Now we have to secure our future

From one of my former GAC colleagues and nice to see his thoughtful contribution. Immigration excerpt:

…A stark example of our broken approach to policy making was the decision to dramatically increase immigration levels to maintain economic growth, which seemed like a seemingly painless way (as opposed to serious policy choices) to do so. Ultimately, it failed even at this, as modest headline economic growth masked declining per-capita incomes. It also enabled provinces to underfund higher education by relying on foreign students paying high fees without guaranteeing them quality education. It has had unintended consequences in areas such as productivity, national security and health care. And now, support for large-scale immigration is at risk as Canadians doubt government control over borders and question the ability of governments to meet existing housing, health and education needs.

Our culture of political expediency sees immigration and, by extension, foreign policy, through largely a vote-gathering lens, rather than through the national interest. Thankfully, Canadians have largely avoided xenophobic anti-immigrant populism to date, but that could change if we do not return to an approach that benefits all of Canada. If we discourage a thoughtfully targeted migration approach, we undermine the innovation needed for our success.

That diversity is central to our prosperity, so long as diversity is not seen simply as an end in itself. The advantage of diversity is in the varying knowledge and experiences that can be brought together to find creative, productive and enduring solutions to the challenges we face. But a diverse society still needs to achieve belonging, which comes from finding common ground – not from hype about what divides us.

…It is a sad commentary on the dearth of major Canadian policy innovation and nation building that has taken place in recent decades that we must go back 40 years for inspiration, but so it is.

Back to now. Profound change in the relatively comfortable and undemanding world in which Canada has prospered has been a long time coming, but events in recent years have catalyzed the shift, meaning many Canadians are only now beginning to realize how much has changed. Action is urgently needed. But it is hard to see it happen if we do not find some common ground to bring us together to address the challenges at hand.

We have done it before. We can do it again.

Source: The age of Canada’s exorbitant privilege is ending. Now we have to secure our future

Labman and Gaucher: Why the ‘language of loopholes’ should be avoided if Trump cracks down on the Canada-U.S. border

Representative of the views of most academics/activists and divorced from both domestic and Trump administration realities.

It would be far more productive for them to make practical and realistic suggestions to attenuate the impact for those most in need rather than making these general arguments. (e.g., Rob Vineberg’s suggestion on how to improve asylum claim processing).

The general statement that these restrictions will result in an increase in “undertaking dangerous and sometimes deadly measures to seek protection” is correct but will likely cause some to reconsider the risks.

As to the loophole terminology, the reality is that it is likely perceived as such by migrants themselves and those helping them, as they understandably seek a way to enter Canada:

Refugee advocates on both sides of the Canada-United States border are already gearing up for the next round of battle regarding the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA).

With the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, the incoming appointment of Tom Homan as a “border czar” and stated plans for border crackdowns and mass deportations, there is heightened awareness of the impact on Canadian border crossings.

Trump, in fact, has threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing the border.

STCA timeline

Originally signed in 2002, the STCA permits the return of asylum seekers who arrive in Canada from the U.S. — or vice versa — because both countries are considered safe.

For more than two decades, refugee advocates have called for it to be suspended given the agreement’s negative impact on access to asylum and how it can fuel human trafficking. Instead, the agreement was expanded in March 2023 to make it harder to cross the border.

Simultaneously, Roxham Road, a central crossing point in Québec for asylum seekers travelling from the U.S. to Canada during the first Trump administration, was closed down in 2023.

Supposed loopholes

Debates around the STCA often feature complaints that the agreement contains loopholes that must be closed.

Prior to March 2023, the agreement allowed Canada to refuse refugees coming through the U.S. who sought entry at official border crossings. Crossing at an unofficial border point, however, did not trigger the agreement, a detail described by critics as a legislative loophole.

These critics argued that asylum seekers were exploiting the loophole by avoiding official land ports of entry to make their refugee claims.

To be clear, the decision about official and unofficial border crossings was not accidental. It was an intentional recognition of the expansive reach of the Canada-U.S. border and the impossibility of attentively monitoring or tracking all refugee routes into Canada or the U.S.

Obscuring understanding

Our research, featured in Emmett Macfarlane and Kate Puddister’s upcoming book Disciplinary Divides in the Study of Law and Politics, explores how this language of loopholes works to dangerously obscure our understanding of how migrants move, the STCA’s effectiveness as a tool of border control and whether the U.S. is in fact safe for refugees.

The idea of a loophole implies an error that must be addressed, and, at the border, a hole to be closed or a road to be sealed. The language of loopholes centres on the “security” of the border.

The revised STCA now applies across the entirety of the border between Canada and the U.S., at both official and unofficial crossings. The perceived loophole of crossing at unofficial entry points and being able to claim asylum has been closed. Yet, in the aftermath of the U.S. election, new loophole language is surfacing.

Under the new STCA, migrants who cross into Canada at irregular border points will be returned to the U.S. (or vice versa) — but only if they’re discovered within the first 14 days of their arrival. This incentivizes refugees to evade detection for two weeks so that they can make a claim for protection in Canada.

With the land crossing “loophole” closed, we now see critics pointing to this 14-day provision as yet another loophole, describing it as an ill-considered gap in the revised agreement that must be closed — further limiting access to asylum.

Placing asylum seekers in harm’s way

Many refugee advocates have argued this new 14-day condition puts asylum seekers at greater risk, pushing them into hiding and making them reliant on human traffickers. But these advocates don’t use the language of loopholes — they simply see it as further argument on why the STCA is not the right way to control irregular crossings and should be suspended entirely.

With a Canadian federal election on the horizon and ongoing debates around the agreement looming large, Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledged there may be need to consider a “different approach” to border management. He says the government is focused on a “secure” border.

This public fixation on the type of border crossing migrants undertake isn’t unique to commentary on the STCA.

Migrants arriving in Canada by sea from various South Asian regions on the Komagata Maru in 1914, the Amelie in 1987, the Ocean Lady in 2009 and the MV Sun Sea in 2010 were met with strong opposition from Canadian governments, accused of using a disingenuous channel to seek entry.

Excluding some migrants

Characterizing asylum seekers who are crossing the border as exploiting a loophole is therefore aligned with a Canadian immigration history that, while inclusive in certain respects, has been marked by both legal and illegal attempts to exclude certain groups of migrants.

In fact, crossing a territorial border to trigger a legal right to claim asylum is viewed fearfully in contrast to the airport receptions of resettled refugees who, for the fortunate few with access to this discretionary route to protection, are celebrated.

Debating whether asylum seekers are exploiting perceived loopholes taps into public sentiment about specific migrant arrivals of the past.

It also ignores both Canadian and American complicity in facilitating these unofficial crossings in the first place by choosing to place obstacles in the way of asylum seekers rather than devoting care and resources to a fair and orderly processing of refugee claims.

Closing ‘loopholes’ won’t deter migrants

This language of loopholes suggests that once the loophole is closed, applications for asylum and incidents of trafficking will decrease.

This assumption is empirically false given the grim realities of migration. The presence or absence of loopholes does not prevent asylum seekers from undertaking dangerous and sometimes deadly measures to seek protection.

Conversations around the STCA that focus on loopholes have lost sight of the needs of asylum seekers and our commitments in international law to protect refugees. Instead they emphasize the supposed illegitimacy of border crossers, echoing the country’s longstanding preoccupation with how one negotiates the border.

Source: Why the ‘language of loopholes’ should be avoided if Trump cracks down on the Canada-U.S. border

Canada can’t support influx of migrants fleeing Trump, must prevent border crossings, says former top aide

Clearly the case, for domestic as well as USA reasons:

Canada needs to significantly strengthen its border, says a former chief of staff to Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, because it can’t absorb large numbers of migrants who could flee here to evade U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s pledge of mass deportations.

Peter Wilkinson, who recently spent 21 months as Ms. Joly’s top lieutenant and previously served as chief of staff to former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, said Canadians should be deeply concerned about Mr. Trump’s plan to deport up to 11 million undocumented migrants after he takes office in January.

While Mr. Trump has vowed to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico in a bid to stop illegal crossings and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., Mr. Wilkinson worries about the threat of mass deportations.

“We just can’t take 11 million people. We can’t even take one million people or 500,000 people,” he said in an interview. “We have to stop people from coming in. We will be faced with something that as Canadians, that we never really faced before.”

Mr. Wilkinson said the country’s health care and social-welfare systems can’t handle potentially huge numbers of people crossing into Canada. While many groups will argue that this country should accept these migrants, he warned that this issue could fracture the Canadian consensus on immigration.

“Lots of groups in society will be saying ‘no, we can’t do that, it is inhumane,’ and I understand that,” he said. “We are straining a bit now on the consensus in the country in regard to immigration and refugees. This will blow it up.”…

Source: Canada can’t support influx of migrants fleeing Trump, must prevent border crossings, says former top aide