PBO: Projecting the Cost of the Interim Federal Health Program 

Informative PBO Report:

Highlights

  • The Interim Federal Health Program (IFHP) provides limited and temporary healthcare coverage to some groups of foreign nationals who are not eligible for health insurance from provinces or territories.
  • PBO estimates that total IFHP costs will reach almost $1.0 billion in 2025‑26 and rise to over $1.5 billion by 2029‑30. PBO projects that annual growth in IFHP costs will average well below the average growth observed over the past five years, reflecting both a moderated increase in the number of beneficiaries and a more gradual rise in average annual costs.
  • Budget 2025 indicated that a “modest co-payment model” will be introduced to the Interim Federal Health Program for supplemental health products or services. This change to the program is not reflected in our projection. Including this new measure would reduce our estimate of the total cost for the IFHP program.

Summary

The Interim Federal Health Program (IFHP) provides “limited and temporary healthcare coverage to some groups of foreign nationals who are vulnerable and disadvantaged, and who are not eligible for health insurance from provinces or territories.”

Between 2020-21 and 2024-25, the cost of the program grew from $211 million to $896 million as both the number of beneficiaries and the cost per beneficiary increased significantly. PBO estimates that total IFHP costs will reach almost $1.0 billion in 2025‑26 and rise to over $1.5 billion by 2029‑30 (Table S-1).Table S-1Projected IFHP cost, millions of dollars

2025­-262026­-272027­-282028­-292029­-30
Total cost9891,1041,2321,3761,522

We project that average annual growth for IFHP costs will be 11.2 per cent between 2025‑26 and 2029‑30, well below the 33.7 per cent average growth observed over the past five years. This slower growth reflects both a moderated increase in the number of beneficiaries and a more gradual rise in average annual costs.

Budget 2025 indicated that a “modest co-payment model” will be introduced to the Interim Federal Health Program for supplemental health products or services. This change to the program is not reflected in our projection. Including this new measure would reduce our estimate of the total cost for the IFHP program.

Source: Projecting the Cost of the Interim Federal Health Program

Toronto Sun commentary: LILLEY: False asylum claims drive refugee health-care program toward $1B price tag

USA: Black Immigrant Population Diversifies Beyond its Historically Caribbean and Latin American Origins, New Fact Sheet Shows

As is the case in Canada with respect to Caribbean origins:

Long dominated by arrivals from the Caribbean, the Black immigrant population in the United States is now nearly evenly split between immigrants from Africa and those from Latin America and the Caribbean. This demographic shift has implications for communities, labor markets and immigration policy nationwide, a new Migration Policy Institute (MPI) fact sheet notes. 

Drawing on analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the fact sheet finds that the Black immigrant population, which stood at nearly 4.7 million people as of 2024, has strong workforce participation and English language proficiency, as well as similar educational attainment as the U.S.-born and overall immigrant populations. Eighty-one percent of all Black immigrants have become U.S. citizens or are lawful permanent residents (green-card holders), with another 3 percent holding a long-term temporary visa. 

The fact sheet, A Profile of the Growing Black Immigrant Population in the United States, provides findings on population trends, top U.S. destinations, workforce participation, education, language skills, immigration status and household characteristics. 

Black immigrants account for 9 percent of all immigrants in the United States and 11 percent of the overall U.S. Black population (with the population covering anyone self-identifying as Black or African American, alone or in combination with any other race/ethnicity option in the Census survey). 

These immigrants are concentrated in a number of major metropolitan areas, including New York, Miami, Washington, DC and Atlanta. Caribbean immigrants are especially concentrated in New York and Florida, while African immigrants are more widely dispersed across states such as Texas, Minnesota, Ohio, Washington and Colorado. 

Nearly one in five Black children in the United States has at least one immigrant parent, and the vast majority of these children are U.S. citizens. Of Black immigrant children under 18 years old, about 6 out of 10 were born in Africa, reflecting the growing number arriving from Africa relative to those of Caribbean and Latin American origin. 

Among the fact sheet’s key findings: 

  • The 4,685,000 million Black immigrants in the country as of 2024 are almost evenly divided between origins in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. The top five origin countries are Jamaica, Haiti, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana. 
  • While Black immigrants represent just 9 percent of all immigrants nationwide, they have higher concentrations in a number of states, representing 29 percent of all immigrants in North Dakota, 28 percent in Minnesota, 25 percent in Maryland, 24 percent in the District of Columbia and 23 percent in Delaware.   
  • In certain metro areas—Boston, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Seattle and Hartford—Black immigrants represent at least one-quarter of all Black residents. 
  • Employment rates for Black immigrant men (72 percent) and women (65 percent) exceed those of U.S.-born workers (62 percent for men and 56 percent for women), with many employed in sectors central to the U.S. economy, including health care, transportation and professional services. Black immigrant women are especially concentrated in health-care occupations, with 36 percent working in that sector, while transportation is the leading sector for men (employing 17 percent). 
  • Indicators point to strong integration and societal outcomes. About one-third of Black immigrants hold a university degree (36 percent of men and 33 percent of women, similar to the U.S.-born and overall immigrant populations), and most speak English proficiently, with a much higher share speaking English at home than among immigrants overall. Black immigrants are also more likely to be married than the U.S. born. 
  • Despite this, Black immigrants also face economic challenges and barriers, including having lower median earnings and household income than non-Black immigrants and the U.S. born, and a relatively low rate of home ownership (49 percent, as compared to 73 percent for the non-Black U.S. born and 59 percent for non-Black immigrants). 

The findings come amid a shifting immigration policy environment. Recent federal changes significantly narrowing refugee resettlement and other humanitarian pathways, ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designations and increasing immigration enforcement have increased uncertainty for some Black immigrant communities, with a particular focus of late on Haitian and Somali ones. 

“Understanding Black immigrants’ assets and unique challenges, and the considerable diversity within this population, has never been more important,” writes MPI Senior Policy Analyst Valerie Lacarte. “At a time when policies restricting immigration of all kinds are being implemented and misinformation about immigrant communities abounds, the fact remains—and the data in this fact sheet demonstrate—that Black immigrants are generally highly educated, English speaking and significant contributors to the U.S. economy.” 

Read the fact sheet here: www.migrationpolicy.org/research/black-immigrants

John Ivison: America appears to be slamming its doors on Canadian professionals with work visas

Money quote:

…“But why would anyone who doesn’t have to, run the risk of humiliation in their own country by U.S. Department of Homeland Security staff who seem only slightly more house-trained than their colleagues in Immigration and Customs Enforcement?”

Source: John Ivison: America appears to be slamming its doors on Canadian professionals with work visas

Meggs: Retour sur l’esprit de l’Accord Canada-Québec relatif à l’immigration pour ses 35 ans

Good long read from former Quebec official on the genesis of two-step immigration. Conclusion excerpt:

….Il a été durable en dépit de l’évolution du système d’immigration canadien depuis sa signature, largement grâce aux mécanismes intergouvernementaux de gestion prévus dans les annexes.

Cela étant dit, cette gestion concertée a donné lieu vers 2005 à l’abandon, sans amendement, par les deux gouvernements, d’un article qui — on s’en rend compte aujourd’hui — était la clé de voûte de notre système traditionnel d’immigration. Il s’agit de l’article 9 : « Le Canada et le Québec reconnaissent que les demandes de droit d’établissement doivent normalement être déposées et étudiées à l’étranger. »

L’abandon de cette règle a ouvert la porte à la réception des demandes d’immigration permanente par des personnes déjà sur le territoire avec un statut temporaire. Peu de temps après, le Canada a créé son Programme de la catégorie de l’expérience canadienne (CEC – 2008) et le Québec son Programme de l’expérience québécoise (PEQ – 2010).

Aucun des deux gouvernements n’a pensé aux conséquences de cette décision sur la planification de l’immigration. Si les personnes sélectionnées pour la résidence permanente venaient de l’étranger, planifier les seuils d’immigration permanente suffisait pour prévoir et réguler le nombre d’arrivées et le nombre de personnes qui s’établiraient.

À l’inverse, si les personnes à statut temporaire devaient quitter le pays pour faire une demande d’immigration permanente, il n’était pas nécessaire d’en fixer le nombre. Avec l’octroi de la résidence permanente à des personnes déjà sur le territoire, la planification de l’immigration permanente s’éloignait de plus en plus des arrivées.

Le nombre d’immigrants temporaires a donc grimpé de manière exponentielle dans les dix dernières années, sans que les niveaux planifiés d’immigration permanente suivent le rythme.

Le résultat est un bassin phénoménal de personnes au Québec, comme au Canada, qui s’attendent à pouvoir obtenir la résidence permanence. La crise du PEQ n’en est qu’un exemple particulier.

C’était l’intention des négociateurs de l’Accord Canada-Québec de reconnaître au Québec le contrôle sur l’ensemble de l’immigration sur son territoire, incluant l’immigration temporaire, à l’unique exception des demandeurs d’asile. Aujourd’hui, il y a des avis divergents sur la responsabilité du Québec sur un ensemble important de permis de travail, ce qui fait en sorte que le Québec ne donne pas son consentement à ce pan d’immigration temporaire.

Le système actuel d’immigration à multiples étapes a grandement amplifié le nombre de dédoublements, de chevauchements et de frais auxquels font face les personnes qui souhaitent venir au Québec pour étudier, travailler, et s’établir. Il crée également de la précarité et de la vulnérabilité. L’Accord offre la possibilité de mieux partager les responsabilités entre les deux États pour réduire ces inconvénients et diminuer les coûts.

En cette année électorale, il est évident que tous les partis politiques seront appelés à se positionner sur le dossier complexe de l’immigration. Espérons qu’ils sauront tirer pleinement avantage de l’Accord signé il y a 35 ans afin de protéger la spécificité de la nation québécoise.

Source: Retour sur l’esprit de l’Accord Canada-Québec relatif à l’immigration pour ses 35 ans

…. It has been sustainable despite the evolution of the Canadian immigration system since its signing, largely thanks to the intergovernmental management mechanisms provided for in the annexes.

That being said, this concerted management led around 2005 to the abandonment, without amendment, by the two governments, of an article that – we realize today – was the cornerstone of our traditional immigration system. This is Article 9: “Canada and Quebec recognize that applications for the right of establishment must normally be filed and studied abroad. ”

The abandonment of this rule opened the door to the receipt of applications for permanent immigration by people already in the territory with temporary status. Shortly after, Canada created its Canadian Experience Category Program (CEC – 2008) and Quebec its Quebec Experience Program (QEP – 2010).

Neither government has thought about the consequences of this decision on immigration planning. If the people selected for permanent residence came from abroad, planning permanent immigration thresholds was enough to predict and regulate the number of arrivals and the number of people who would settle.

Conversely, if people with temporary status had to leave the country to apply for permanent immigration, it was not necessary to set the number. With the granting of permanent residence to people already in the territory, the planning of permanent immigration was increasingly far away from arrivals.

The number of temporary immigrants has therefore risen exponentially in the last ten years, without the planned levels of permanent immigration following the pace.

The result is a phenomenal pool of people in Quebec, as in Canada, who expect to be able to obtain permanent residence. The PEQ crisis is just one particular example of this.

It was the intention of the negotiators of the Canada-Quebec Agreement to recognize Quebec’s control over all immigration on its territory, including temporary immigration, with the sole exception of asylum seekers. Today, there are divergent opinions on Quebec’s responsibility for a large set of work permits, which means that Quebec does not give its consent to this part of temporary immigration.

The current system of multi-stage immigration has greatly amplified the number of duplications, overlaps and fees faced by people who wish to come to Quebec to study, work, and settle. It also creates precariousness and vulnerability. The Agreement offers the possibility of better sharing of responsibilities between the two States to reduce these inconveniences and lower costs.

In this election year, it is obvious that all political parties will be called upon to position themselves on the complex issue of immigration. Let’s hope that they will be able to take full advantage of the Agreement signed 35 years ago to protect the specificity of the Quebec nation.

Conservatives to propose barring non-citizens convicted of crimes from making refugee claims

Not sure whether this would withstand a Charter challenge but clever move by the Conservatives to choose this issue which most Canadians, immigrants and non-immigrants, would likely support:

The Conservatives are planning to introduce a motion today to bar non-citizens convicted of serious crimes from making refugee claims.

The motion also calls on the government to prevent asylum claims from people whose cases are still working their way through the courts.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said on social media Monday non-citizens who commit serious crimes “must be forced to leave our country.”

The Conservative motion cites an increase in extortion cases and what they call lax bail laws as reasons for the motion.

British Columbia Premier David Eby and several big city mayors have also pushed Ottawa to close what they call loopholes around asylum claims following a significant rise in extortion violence in his province and many others.

Delegates at the recent Conservative party convention in Calgary called for similar changes to the immigration and justice systems when they voted in favour of a policy proposal saying Canadian taxpayers should not pay for the “rehabilitation of foreign nationals.”

Source: Conservatives to propose barring non-citizens convicted of crimes from making refugee claims

These migrants escaped war and disaster to come to Canada. Should they go home or be offered permanent residence? It’s not that simple

Good call for greater care and transparency regarding these programs, including consideration of likely impact should these groups not be able to return:

…Seeking clear criteria for humanitarian programs

Ninette Kelley, chair of the World Refugee and Migration Council, said temporary humanitarian programs have a place but require very clear criteria and a limited time frame. Sometimes there could be benefits if Canada can quickly admit more people at risk on temporary status than it would under slower and more modest permanent resettlement.

She said each of these special programs should be independently evaluated. While Canada can’t take in everyone, she said the intake levels earmarked for humanitarian migrants should be open for debate.

“Government immigration programs change so frequently and not in a transparent manner,” said Kelley. “We could continue in a humanitarian tradition by accepting more than we do, but we should be careful and transparent about how we arrive at those numbers, who we assist, how we process them, and what kind of status they’re afforded, which is not happening at the present.”

The Immigration Department began developing a “crisis response framework” since 2023 to better anticipate, respond to and manage international crises, though little is known about it publicly.

In a statement, the department said the framework has been “formalized” since early 2025 and is meant to be a set of tools and guidelines that helps officials proactively assess emerging situations, determine an appropriate and feasible response, and carry it out from start to finish.

“Any potential new measures would be carefully assessed to balance humanitarian needs against available levels space and existing program capacity,” it said, underlying the need to be more proactive, better co-ordinate with key partners, and align with immigration levels plans and “domestic welcoming capacity.”

Source: These migrants escaped war and disaster to come to Canada. Should they go home or be offered permanent residence? It’s not that simple

Abolition du PEQ: Recruté par le Québec, courtisé ailleurs au Canada

Articles on the impact of ending the PEQ keep on coming:

…Le ministre Roberge promet désormais l’admission à la résidence permanente des quelque 6300 employés du réseau de la santé touchés. Pour le DBenard et son épouse, cette promesse reste théorique.

Dans le PSTQ, la reconnaissance de ses diplômes n’est pas prise en compte, dit le médecin.

« Au ministère de l’Immigration, on m’a dit que l’évaluation comparative demandée dans le portail Arrima est celle qui est faite par le ministère, Ce n’est pas mon cas, parce que mes diplômes médicaux ont été évalués par le Conseil médical du Canada. Mais on m’a dit que, de toute façon, ça change rien : ça n’apporte pas de points », précise le médecin.

« On m’a dit : “Le problème pour vous, c’est que le système est mal fait puisque vous êtes médecin à Montréal, que vous avez plus de 40 ans et que vous n’avez pas fait vos études au Québec, que vous n’avez pas de diplôme québécois. Donc, vous n’êtes pas reconnu à votre juste valeur par ce système-là”. »

Résultat : aucune invitation à déposer une demande à ce jour.

Pour atteindre le seuil de points plus élevé, il lui manque notamment :

  • Des points pour l’âge – un nombre très faible de points après 40 ans ;
  • Des points liés à la région, Montréal étant moins favorisée ;
  • Des points liés à ses diplômes.

On lui a même recommandé de passer des tests de français pour améliorer son pointage.

« Le français est ma langue. Et le test, c’est 500 $ par tête », note-t-il.

Son score se situe entre 540 et 600 points.

« On nous a dit : “Ne vous inquiétez pas, avec le PSTQ, ça va fonctionner.” Mais la plateforme n’est pas adaptée à notre situation. On est dans le flou », résume-t-il.

Courtisés ailleurs

Pendant ce temps, les offres se multiplient ailleurs au Canada : Ontario, Manitoba, Nouveau-Brunswick, Alberta.

« Le problème, c’est au Québec, insiste-t-il. Quand on se renseigne dans les autres provinces, ils nous font un pont d’or. Ils nous disent clairement : “Si vous venez dans n’importe quelle province, francophone ou anglophone, peu importe, obtenir la résidence ne sera pas un souci.” »

Le couple n’a pourtant aucune envie de quitter Montréal.

« Bien sûr qu’on voudrait rester, dit le médecin. Tout se passe bien. Mais avec le PSTQ, il n’y a rien de certain. Et c’est ça qui est difficile. »

Source: Abolition du PEQ: Recruté par le Québec, courtisé ailleurs au Canada

… Minister Roberge now promises the admission to permanent residence of the approximately 6,300 employees of the health network affected. For Dr. Benard and his wife, this promise remains theoretical.

In the PSTQ, the recognition of his diplomas is not taken into account, says the doctor.

“At the Ministry of Immigration, I was told that the comparative evaluation requested in the Arrima portal is the one made by the ministry. This is not the case for me, because my medical degrees were evaluated by the Medical Council of Canada. But I was told that, anyway, it doesn’t change anything: it doesn’t bring points, “says the doctor.

“I was told: “The problem for you is that the system is poorly done since you are a doctor in Montreal, that you are over 40 years old and that you did not study in Quebec, that you do not have a Quebec diploma. So, you are not recognized at your true value by this system.” ”

Result: no invitation to file an application to date.

To reach the higher point threshold, it lacks in particular:

Points for age – a very low number of points after 40 years;

Points related to the region, Montreal being less favored;

Points related to his diplomas.

He was even advised to take French tests to improve his score.

“French is my language. And the test is $500 per head, “he notes.

Its score is between 540 and 600 points.

“We were told: ‘Don’t worry, with the PSTQ, it will work.” But the platform is not adapted to our situation. We are in the dark, “he summarizes.

Courted elsewhere

Meanwhile, offers are multiplying elsewhere in Canada: Ontario, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Alberta.

“The problem is in Quebec,” he insists. When we inquire in the other provinces, they make us a golden bridge. They tell us clearly: “If you come to any province, French-speaking or English-speaking, it doesn’t matter, getting the residency won’t be a problem.” ”

However, the couple has no desire to leave Montreal.

“Of course we would like to stay,” said the doctor. Everything is going well. But with the PSTQ, there is nothing certain. And that’s what’s difficult. ”

Saunders – Carney’s choice: Ice out illegal migrants, or treat them like the assets they are

Useful portrayal of the options but of course, the more realistic option from a political and economic perspective is one that is more selective in its application such as those in priority areas. A government that had not frittered away confidence in immigration would have been able to adopt a more expansive approach:

…One approach is to regard the undocumented as a liability. That’s what the United States is doing, to an extreme degree – last year, the Trump administration deported more than 600,000 people.

A Canadian version would be hugely expensive. The estimated cost of deporting one individual from Canada is as high as $14,000 – and that ignores the opportunity cost of depriving the economy of labour, skills, entrepreneurship and investment. Of course, some should be removed: failed refugee claimants, people with criminal or extremist backgrounds, and perhaps undocumented people who are perpetually without employment. Effective deportation is part of a functioning selective-immigration system.

But it would be economically wasteful. The construction industry says it’ll need 300,000 more tradespeople than Canada can provide by the end of the decade – and Mr. Carney’s nation-building megaprojects will raise that number. Healthcare and eldercare have even larger shortfalls. It would be absurd, in this environment, to ship away of hundreds of thousands of processed, screened, settled, integrated and jobsite-trained workers.

That brings us to the other approach: to regard the undocumented as an asset. Under this thinking, the most effective solution to the problem of illegal immigrants is simply to make them legal immigrants.

That’s what Spain did this month, giving permanent residence and eventual citizenship to half a million undocumented immigrant workers all at once, as it has done on a similar scale several times this century with stellar economic results. It’s what many European countries did last year on smaller scales. It’s what Colombia has done for about 3 million Venezuelans who illegally crossed its border. It’s what the United States has done several times in the last half-century, regularizing millions of “illegals.” And it’s been a Canadian policy move, too – a sizable share of Portuguese-Canadians, for example, were undocumented until legislation in the 1970s and 1980s naturalized them….

Source: Carney’s choice: Ice out illegal migrants, or treat them like the assets they are

Face à la dévitalisation, les régions plaident pour l’immigration

Of note. Seeing some similarities in English Canada:

« Abolir le Programme de l’expérience québécoise, c’est fermer nos régions. C’est triste, la façon de voir du ministre de l’Immigration Jean-François Roberge », laisse tomber Vincent Bérubé, maire de La Pocatière.

Comme bien d’autres élus municipaux, il est aux premières loges pour voir les dégâts causés par l’abolition du Programme de l’expérience québécoise (PEQ) et le resserrement des permis de travail au fédéral : des entreprises sont en difficulté, des commerces risquent de fermer et des services à la population sont menacés.

M. Bérubé est personnellement touché. Comme propriétaire d’un restaurant, il risque de perdre un chef cuisinier venu s’établir au Québec avec sa famille. « Son contrat de travail finit en décembre 2026. Avec tout le brouhaha… Ça génère chez lui tellement d’anxiété, et chez nous aussi », laisse-t-il tomber.

À quoi bon convaincre un immigrant de s’établir en région avec sa famille, lui trouver un logement et l’aider à s’intégrer, si on ne peut pas lui garantir qu’il pourra rester pour de bon ? se demande le maire de La Pocatière.

Vincent Bérubé, comme les 46 autres membres du conseil d’administration de la Fédération québécoise des municipalités (FQM), a signé une lettre ouverte à François Legault, à Jean-François Roberge, et qui s’adresse aussi aux politiciens qui convoiteront un poste de premier ministre aux élections d’octobre1….

Source: Face à la dévitalisation, les régions plaident pour l’immigration

Abolishing the Quebec Experience Program is closing our regions. It’s sad, the way of seeing the Minister of Immigration Jean-François Roberge, “says Vincent Bérubé, mayor of La Pocatière.

Like many other municipal elected officials, he is in the front row to see the damage caused by the abolition of the Quebec Experience Program (PEQ) and the tightening of federal work permits: companies are in difficulty, shops risk closing and services to the population are threatened.

Mr. Bérubé is personally affected. As a restaurant owner, he risks losing a chef who came to settle in Quebec with his family. “His employment contract ends in December 2026. With all the noise… It generates so much anxiety in him, and in us too,” he says.

What is the point of convincing an immigrant to settle in the region with his family, find him housing and help him integrate, if we cannot guarantee that he will be able to stay for good? Wonders the mayor of La Pocatière.

Vincent Bérubé, like the other 46 members of the board of directors of the Fédération québécoise des municipalités (FQM), signed an open letter to François Legault, to Jean-François Roberge, and which is also addressed to politicians who will covet a position of Prime Minister in the October elections1…

Asylum rulings made without a hearing raise security and fraud concerns, C.D. Howe Institute report says

Of note:

The federal refugee tribunal’s practice of assessing some asylum claims without first questioning applicants could heighten the risk of fraud and weaken security screening, a report by a former director of policy at the ImmigrationDepartment says. 

The report, to be published on Thursday by the C.D. Howe Institute, expresses concern that the Immigration and Refugee Board’s assessment of asylum claims from certain countries without hearings removes an important layer of scrutiny. 

An access to information request by the report’s author, James Yousif, found that between Jan. 1, 2019 and Feb. 28, 2023, the IRB accepted 24,599 asylum claims into Canada without personally questioning the applicants in hearings. 

Mr. Yousif, a former IRB adjudicator, says that practice accelerates decision making, but has not reduced the huge backlog of claims. 

By September, 2025, there was a backlog of almost 296,000 pending cases. 

Under a file-review policy established in 2019, the IRB drew up a list of countries, which was removed from public view in 2020, from where claims could be assessed without an interview, the report says. 

Mr. Yousif argues in the report that all asylum claims should be adjudicated through in-person hearings “without shortcuts.” 

He writes that approving asylum claims without a hearing “may facilitate fraud and encourage more fraudulent claims.”

“Asking questions is also a part of Canada’s security screening architecture and cannot be skipped without increasing national security risks.” …

Source: Asylum rulings made without a hearing raise security and fraud concerns, C.D. Howe Institute report says