Trump’s early immigration enforcement record, by the numbers

2025/03/05 Leave a comment

Good set of data from the first month:

….The Trump administration has struggled to increase deportation levels even as it has opened up new pathways to deport migrants of other nationalities to Mexico and Central America.

Trump deported 37,660 people during his first month in office, Reuters reported in February, far less than the monthly average of 57,000 removals and returns in the last full year of Biden’s administration.

The figures include both ICE “removals” and more informal U.S. Customs and Border Protection “returns” to Mexico.

A senior Trump administration official and experts said deportations were poised to rise in coming months as countries accept more deportees. But initial figures suggested Trump could struggle to match higher deportation rates during the last full year of the Biden administration when large numbers of migrants were caught crossing illegally, making them easier to deport.

The Trump administration has not yet released detailed deportation data that would show how many of those deported were arrested by ICE in the interior of the U.S., as opposed to those arrested at the border and quickly processed for deportation.

The Trump administration rolled back Biden-era extensions of Temporary Protected Status for people from more than 1 million people from Venezuela and Haiti, potentially broadening the pool of people who could be deported.

The Trump administration swiftly struck or expanded agreements with Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, and Costa Rica to take deportees from other nations. The deportations to Panama have raised concerns about treatment of the migrants, including that of more than 100 sent to a camp near the Darien Gap jungle.

Trump ordered the U.S. military to assist with deportation operations, leading to military deportation flights to Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Ecuador, Peru and India.

Source: Trump’s early immigration enforcement record, by the numbers

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Canada Curbed Illegal Migration to the U.S. Now People Are Heading to Canada.

2025/03/03 Leave a comment

Sort of inevitable that increased security patrols mean further persons found. No major uptick to date, February data should be out shortly:

…Canada has directed 1.3 billion Canadian dollars ($900 million) to enhance border security, adding two Black Hawk helicopters and 60 drones equipped with thermal cameras.

It also tightened requirements for temporary visas that some visitors used to arrive in Canada legally but then enter the United States illegally.

The Canadian government says its recent measures have driven down the number of unauthorized crossings into the United States: About 600 migrants were intercepted at the border in January, down from about 900 in January 2024, according to U.S. data.

“Whether or not some of the allegations about what is going on at the border are accurate or not, or credible or not, I don’t have the luxury not to take it seriously,” Marc Miller, Canada’s immigration minister, said in an interview on Thursday.

…The Opposite Direction

Canada’s focus on the border, against the backdrop of Mr. Trump’s domestic crackdown on migrants, is why the nine people walking into Alberta on Feb. 3 raised alarms: It was unusual to see a group this large crossing on foot in the heart of winter. The presence of young children made it all the more troubling.

The Canadian authorities say they have been intercepting more people arriving from the United States, but because of the schedule Canada follows in releasing data, no numbers are yet available for the weeks since Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January. But government news releases suggest the numbers are rising….

“This is the latest sign that Canada is sending people and families with children back to the U.S. with the full knowledge that they are at great risk of being detained and then returned to danger,” said Ketty Nivyabandi, a leader of Amnesty International’s Canada chapter, referring to the nine migrants Canada returned to the United States. 

“The Canadian government must not wait a minute longer to withdraw from the Safe Third Country Agreement,” she added.

But such a move would likely encourage more people to seek refuge in Canada, creating new pressures on the country’s already strained immigration system.

“It would almost certainly lead to a surge in unauthorized border crossings,” said Phil Triadafilopoulos, a political science professor at the University of Toronto.

Still, he added, by continuing to return asylum seekers to the United States, Canada is signaling that “it isn’t going to receive people who have lost their temporary protected status in the U.S. as hospitably as it did in the past.”

And as illustrated by the migrants who crossed in Alberta, those groups, he said, can “include small children in really dire conditions, with the full knowledge that the fate of those children and their families is highly uncertain.”

Mr. Miller, the immigration minister, insisted that Canada believes that the United States remains a safe country for asylum seekers.

“We need to have a proper, managed system at the border,” he said. “But it doesn’t mean that we’re naïve, or we’re not watching events that are currently happening in the U.S.”…

Source: Canada Curbed Illegal Migration to the U.S. Now People Are Heading to Canada.

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Canada Case Study Explores the Limits of Immigration to Ease Demographic Decline

2025/03/01 Leave a comment

Good and relevant study by Dan Hiebert on the need for realism and a shift towards population policy framework:

High-income countries globally face a stark demographic transition as their populations age and fertility rates decline, with key implications for productivity and the maintenance of retiree benefits if tax bases decline as workforces shrink. Questions remain about how and to what extent immigration can help slow this transition and soften the impact on labor markets. 

Canada offers a unique vantage point on the role that immigration can play in easing demographic decline—and the potential drawbacks. Over the past decade, rising permanent and temporary migration accounted for the entirety of Canada’s labor force growth. But the rapid pace of change has come with challenges. By 2024, Canada’s historic embrace of immigration had cooled amid public concerns about its impact on housing costs and public services. 

In a new report out today for the Migration Policy Institute’s Transatlantic Council on Migration, respected Canadian researcher Daniel Hiebert investigates the efficacy of immigration in addressing population change and the old-age dependency ratio. The report examines Canada’s demographic challenges (its total fertility rate of 1.26 children per woman is among the lowest rates globally) and recent changes in migration policymaking before exploring the consequences of setting immigration rates at different levels. The report uses six scenarios for admissions and population projections over the next half-century that were commissioned from Statistics Canada. 

The report finds that while the six scenarios, which range from high- to near net-zero immigration, would produce very different overall population sizes by 2046 and 2071, the old-age dependency ratio would rise even under the highest immigration rate. “These scenarios point to an important lesson: Immigration can grow the population and slow the effects of falling fertility, but it is less efficient at changing the age composition of the population,” writes Hiebert, emeritus professor of geography at the University of British Columbia. That is because immigrants themselves age and eventually retire alongside their native-born peers. 

To tackle the rising old-age dependency ratio and the prospect of shrinking workforces, policymakers would need to also consider other interventions, such as raising the retirement age, Hiebert writes. 

The report, Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study, argues that for immigration policy to effectively tackle Canada’s challenges, policymakers will need to frame a long-term strategy that considers a number of intertwining realities, including: 

  • Calibrating immigrant admissions together with decisions about social spending and investment in housing stock and infrastructure. 
  • Taking a longer lens than the standard three-year population plan, given the consequences of changing immigration targets play out over decades. This also means recognizing the need for different policy interventions as “fast” regions such as large cities face pressures on housing and infrastructure from above-average population growth, while “slow” regions such as rural areas will need help navigating depopulation and rising old-age dependency ratios. 
  • Effectively communicating with the public to set appropriate expectations for immigration. 

“Canada is frequently seen as an exceptional case, globally, with a population that has been willing—enthusiastic, even—to accommodate a relatively high rate of immigration. This consensus has become frail and the Canadian government (like others around the world) has changed its tone on immigration, acknowledging that there are costs to immigration-led population growth,” Hiebert writes. “Nevertheless, demographic challenges are resolute and ignoring them will, eventually, also carry economic and political consequences.” 

While few governments globally have clearly and forcefully articulated the unprecedented levels of old-age dependency that are looming, and the resulting painful economic adjustments ahead, embarking on a national conversation around demography, engaging with the tough policy trade-offs involved and building a population strategy could help raise Canadian public awareness, the author concludes.

Read the report here: www.migrationpolicy.org/research/immigration-demography-canada. 

Source: Canada Case Study Explores the Limits of Immigration to Ease Demographic Decline

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Canada announces new measures for emergency visa program for Ukrainians affected by war

2025/03/01 Leave a comment

Expected:

The federal government says Ukrainians who arrived in Canada under a special program set up after Russia invaded their country will have more time to apply for a new open work permit.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced Thursday that Ukrainians residing in this country under the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel (CUAET) as of March 31, 2024, will now have an extra year to apply for the new open work permit. The change extends the deadline to apply to March 31, 2026, from March 31, 2025, and the visa will be valid for up to three years.

Ukrainians who arrived under CUAET will also be able to renew an existing work permit by that deadline or apply for a study permit, subject to standard fees.

“These temporary measures will allow Ukrainians and their family members to continue to work and study in Canada during this difficult time and eventually return home when it is safe to do so,” Mr. Miller said in a statement….

Source: Canada announces new measures for emergency visa program for Ukrainians affected by war

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Canada prioritizes new occupations for permanent residence

2025/03/01 Leave a comment

Of note:

Ottawa has added teachers’ assistants, early childhood educators, and cooks, among others, to a list of occupations prioritized in the selection of skilled immigrants for permanent residence in 2025.

The Immigration Department introduced the “category-based selection” — better known as the “targeted draw” of skilled immigrants — in June 2023 to better align newcomers with Canada’s labour market needs by prioritizing candidates in specific occupational sectors.

In additional to focusing on candidates with strong French language proficiency, the system targets those in the talent pool with a background in five occupational sectors: health care; science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) professions; trades such as carpenters, plumbers and contractors; transport; and agriculture and agri-food.

On Thursday, officials removed the entire transport category and added the education sector, which includes roles such as kindergarten, elementary and secondary teachers’ assistants to teachers, early childhood educators and instructors for persons with disabilities, among others.

The list of eligible occupations has been updated, with new roles added and some removed from each category.

For instance, the health care category has been expanded to cover new health care and social services occupations, as well as various technologist and technician jobs…

Source: Canada prioritizes new occupations for permanent residence

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Trump Administration Bends U.S. Government in Extraordinary Ways towards Aim of Mass Deportations

2025/03/01 Leave a comment

Good analysis by MPI:

Invoking the specter of “invasion,” the Trump administration has set out to build a fundamentally new, all-of-government machinery to fulfill President Donald Trump’s campaign promise of mass deportations of resident unauthorized immigrants and new irregular arrivals.

To carry out this enterprise, the administration has enlisted federal agencies such as the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) that have previously never played significant roles—or any, in the case of the IRS—in immigration enforcement. It also has directed other federal law enforcement entities, including prosecutors, to prioritize deportations. And it has significantly increased the military’s involvement by deploying sizeable numbers of troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, for the first time using military aircraft to carry out deportation flights, and, also in a first, detaining noncitizens arrested inside the United States at the U.S. military facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

Reaching beyond the federal ambit, the administration is also doubling down on its pressure on state and local authorities to conduct immigration enforcement actions traditionally reserved for federal agents, and is seeking or threatening to penalize those that offer resistance. And it has made cooperation on immigration a high priority in foreign affairs, taking an iron-fist approach to negotiations with foreign counterparts. Facing U.S. threats to impose tariffs, end foreign assistance, and take over the Panama Canal, Mexico and a number of other Latin American countries have agreed to implement migration controls, with some also agreeing to hold third-country nationals removed from the United States. So far, these countries have sought to appease the Trump administration, but policy implementation has been measured and strategic. Mexico, for example, has refused to accept deportees arriving on military planes and has also threatened reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports should the Trump administration impose tariffs as early as March 4.

Finally, the administration has achieved something that several of its predecessors could not: Getting Congress to act on immigration legislation. The White House scored a victory when, within a few days of the inauguration, Congress in a bipartisan fashion passed the Laken Riley Act, the first stand-alone immigration legislation in nearly two decades. The law dramatically increases mandatory detention of noncitizens accused of certain criminal offenses.

The orchestrated, whole-of-government machinery displayed by this administration in its first month—accompanied by a muscular, carefully crafted messaging campaign—has the closest parallels with the actions that occurred in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, when broad swaths of the federal government were repurposed to serve the national security mission. The fundamental difference is that post-9/11 actions were a response to an actual attack on U.S. soil, whereas today’s rhetoric of “invasion” and the arrival of foreign “military-age” men intent on building an “army” is not matched by reality. While encounters of asylum seekers and other migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border reached record levels in fiscal year (FY) 2021 and FY 2022, there is no evidence so far of a significant threat to national security or general public safety. And, in fact, irregular crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border significantly declined during 2024, and in particular during the latter half of the calendar year….

Source: Trump Administration Bends U.S. Government in Extraordinary Ways towards Aim of Mass Deportations

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Deportations from Canada up 11 per cent in 2024, with half a million more awaiting removal

2025/02/28 Leave a comment

More recent data with large backlog of removals:

There are about half a million foreign nationals in Canada waiting for removal, including almost 30,000 who are wanted by officials as well as some 21,000 who can’t be removed.

The Canada Border Services Agency said it had 485,359 people in its removal inventory as of Dec. 31, including 120,273 in Ontario and 197,029 in Quebec. About 123,000 were not assigned to any region.

Last year it also reported 16,860 enforced removals, an 11 per cent increase from 2023, reaching the highest level since 2019, when 11,276 people were removed from the country, according to the latest removal statistics released by the border agency on Tuesday.

The top 10 countries where these foreign nationals were sent back to were: Mexico (3,579); India (1,932); Colombia (956); Haiti (806); Romania (653); the U.S. (631); China (535); Venezuela (470); Pakistan (392); and Hungary (366).

“Removing individuals who do not have the right to enter or stay in Canada is essential to maintaining the integrity of Canada’s immigration program and to ensuring fairness for those who come to this country lawfully,” it said.

Among the people booted out of the country last year, 13,527 were failed refugees and 2,261 were foreign nationals removed for non-compliance of immigration laws. While 771 people were removed due to criminality, 89 were involved in organized crime….

Source: Deportations from Canada up 11 per cent in 2024, with half a million more awaiting removal

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Record number of people applying to come to Canada to work, study or visit were refused in 2024

2025/02/28 Leave a comment

Ottawa refused a record number of would-be visitors, international students and foreign workers seeking to come to Canada last year.

According to data obtained by the Star, immigration officials rejected 2,359,157 or 50 per cent of temporary resident applications in 2024, up from 1,846,180 or 35 per cent the year before. The refusal rate — covering study permits, work permits and visitor visas — hit the highest level since 2019, before the pandemic.

Among the three subgroups, 1.95 million or 54 per cent of visitor visa applicants were denied last year — up from 40 per cent in 2023, along with 290,317 or 52 per cent of study permit applicants (up from 38 per cent), and 115,549 or 22 per cent of those who applied for authorization to work in Canada (down slightly from 23 per cent).

The federal government has set aggressive targets to rein in the number of temporary residents in the country under tremendous public pressure amid the affordable housing crisis and rising costs of living faced by Canadians post-pandemic. It also reduced the annual intake of new permanent residents by 20 per cent to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.

To clamp down on the surging temporary resident population in the country, Ottawa has tried to limit new entries while banking on migrants already here to leave voluntarily after their legal permits expire, with a portion of them transitioning to permanent residence under eligible programs.

However, immigration data appears to show a different story when it comes to showing the door to migrants who are already here.

Migrants with expiring temporary resident status are eligible to extend their legal status by applying for what’s called a visitor record. The document allows them to remain here legally but doesn’t let them work or study.

Immigration Department data showed the number of visitor record applications received doubled from 196,965 in 2019 to 389,254 in 2024. The refusal rate hovered at around five per cent. Last year, extension was granted to 321,277 temporary residents — only down slightly from 333,672 in 2023.

“If you remain here and you cannot legalize yourself either as a student, a worker or a permanent resident, the fallback solution is a visitor record,” said Ekaterina Neouimina, who speaks on behalf of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association as a founding member.

While she’s not surprised by the jump in refusals of temporary immigration to Canada, she said it doesn’t make sense that the visitor record approvals remained high.

Source: Record number of people applying to come to Canada to work, study or visit were refused in 2024

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Étudiants étrangers | Québec impose un plafond aux établissements

2025/02/28 Leave a comment

As per the rest of Canada, with similar issues and pushbacks:

Après avoir légiféré pour s’attribuer le pouvoir de limiter le nombre d’étudiants étrangers, le gouvernement Legault passe à l’acte : il réduit de 20 % le nombre de demandes pouvant être faites par des étudiants étrangers voulant fréquenter un établissement d’enseignement québécois. Plus particulièrement, Québec agit en limitant le nombre de certificats d’acceptation du Québec (CAQ), un document essentiel à l’obtention du permis d’études délivré par Ottawa.

Le gouvernement a attribué 156 647 certificats en 2024, et réduira ce nombre à 124 760 en 2025. Chaque établissement se verra donc attribuer un quota à respecter. Une nuance est importante : le nombre de certificats n’est pas représentatif du nombre d’étudiants étrangers au Québec puisque le certificat est accordé pour la durée d’une formation.

Les collèges privés écopent

La baisse est concentrée dans les collèges et établissements d’enseignement privés. « Là où vraiment, il va y avoir une réduction substantielle, c’est dans les AEC [attestations d’études collégiales] », explique la ministre de l’Enseignement supérieur, Pascale Déry. Québec cible les AEC et les formations de courte durée qui, déplore-t-elle, « servent de voies rapides » pour obtenir la résidence permanente.

On parle de formations en administration, en courtage immobilier, en planification d’évènements, en design, par exemple. « Il y a plein, plein de programmes d’AEC très populaires […] où il y a eu une croissance substantielle du nombre d’étudiants étrangers, constate la ministre. Est-ce qu’on a besoin de tous ces étudiants étrangers dans des programmes d’attestation d’études collégiales ? La réponse, c’est non. »

Selon le décret, le Collège Ellis (Trois-Rivières), le Collège Universel (Montréal), le Collège LaSalle (Montréal) et l’Institut Teccart (Montréal) sont les établissements privés qui accueillent – et de loin – le plus d’étudiants étrangers. Québec serre également la vis aux établissements d’enseignement qui offrent des formations professionnelles et, comme cela a été démontré dans les médias, qui ont « développé des modèles d’affaires » autour du recrutement à l’étranger.

Cégeps : des programmes « protégés »

Québec protège les AEC au collégial et la formation professionnelle qui visent à former des travailleurs dans trois domaines : santé, services sociaux et éducation. Des programmes « nichés » en région ou dans des secteurs stratégiques, comme l’aviation, ne subiront pas non plus de diminution, assure Mme Déry. Les cohortes en région vont toutes démarrer, assure-t-elle.

En revanche, le nombre d’étudiants étrangers dans l’ensemble des programmes d’études techniques (DEC) et préuniversitaires sera plafonné. Cela veut dire que Québec attribuera, pour 2025-2026, le même nombre de certificats par établissement qu’en 2024. D’ailleurs, le décret publié mercredi est d’une durée d’un an seulement. Le gouvernement Legault veut prendre en considération sa planification pluriannuelle de l’immigration – qui inclura pour la première fois l’immigration temporaire – pour définir les seuils pour les trois prochaines années dans le milieu de l’enseignement.

« La première étape, c’est de freiner cette croissance qu’on a eue au cours des dernières années, pour toute la pression que ça crée sur les services publics, sur le logement [des étudiants] dans mon cas », illustre la ministre. Le nombre d’étudiants étrangers ayant un permis d’études valide a explosé au Québec de 2014 à 2023, passant de 50 000 à 120 000, une hausse de 140 %, selon le gouvernement.

Coup de frein dans les universités

Comme pour les cégeps, Québec donne un coup de frein dans le nombre d’étudiants étrangers admis dans les universités en plafonnant la délivrance des certificats au niveau de 2024. Or, il s’agit d’une année où le nombre d’admissions a connu « une légère baisse », notamment en raison des actions du gouvernement fédéral, qui a plafonné pour une période de deux ans le nombre d’étudiants étrangers admis au pays. « Cette mesure a déjà un impact, reconnaît Mme Déry. Donc, dans le réseau universitaire, il n’y aura pas de réduction comme telle. On vient stabiliser le nombre de CAQ par rapport à 2024. » Selon la ministre, il s’agit d’une mesure « responsable, équilibrée et balancée ».

Les cégeps et les universités avaient rejeté le projet de loi du ministre de l’Immigration, Jean-François Roberge1. Les universités de Montréal, de Sherbrooke, McGill et Laval avaient même demandé d’être soustraites à la nouvelle loi. Pour les années à venir, « tout est sur la table », a prévenu la ministre, mardi. Elle invite les universités et les cégeps à participer aux consultations sur la planification de l’immigration, qui doit avoir lieu ce printemps.

Selon elle, le décret va « encourager et même pousser » les établissements universitaires « à mieux recruter des étudiants » pour être « certains qu’ils vont vraiment venir au Québec ». Mme Déry estime que leur « autonomie institutionnelle » est conservée, puisque les établissements vont « gérer la distribution » de leur quota.

Source: Étudiants étrangers | Québec impose un plafond aux établissements

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Jamie Sarkonak: P.E.I.’s Dennis King was the only premier with the guts to tackle immigration

2025/02/27 Leave a comment

Parallels with the federal reversals:

…Once a province with a stable population, P.E.I.’s growth has reached a crescendo in recent years. From 2000 to 2010, total residents ranged from 136,000 to roughly 140,000. From 2010 to 2020, that figure rose to 159,000. Since 2020, it reached a whopping 179,000.

In other words, it once took a whole decade for the province to gain 4,000 people. Now, it takes five years to gain 20,000 people.

The consequences? Crowding in virtually every system. Housing is stretched to its limit, with vacancy rates in the province ranging from two to 0.1 per cent, depending on the quarter, in 2023 and 2024 (for comparison, 2012 vacancy rates hovered at about five per cent).

Health care, meanwhile, hasn’t fared much better. One-fifth of Islanders were without a doctor in 2024 and wait times are long. While P.E.I. has attempted to tackle backlogs by all sorts of means — it’s worked with the telehealth platform Maple to increase access to primary care, for example — capacity remains slim. In 2023, the province’s health minister pinned much of the blame on impossible-to-keep-up-with population growth.

While most immigration is within the federal government’s sphere of control, the provinces can alter the number of immigrants coming in through the provincial nominee program (subject to federal limits), and this is where King found an opportunity to make cuts.

He would have known that outrage would follow when he announced the cuts — and indeed, it did. A loud contingent of foreign workers and students, who believed the provincial nominee program was their ticket to permanent Canadian residency, organized a protest that lasted for months.

They marched and chanted. They set up encampments. They held on-and-off hunger strikes. They spoke to the legislature. They found support among pro-immigration non-profits and in the media — CBC’s coverage naturally focused on the plight of the protesters and the loyalty of their allies rather than their critics, creating an illusion of popularity (online forums, like Reddit, generally featured far more contempt for the protesters than sympathy)….

Source: Jamie Sarkonak: P.E.I.’s Dennis King was the only premier with the guts to tackle immigration

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