Processing times for some Canadian immigration applications have surged, but not others. Here’s why

2025/05/26 Leave a comment

Some interesting comparative data:

There are fewer applications in Canada’s immigration system and the backlog has shrunk in the past year. But why are applicants for some programs seeing a spike in processing times?

As of the end of March, the Immigration Department had 1,976,700 permanent and temporary residence applications in its queue, including 779,900 that surpassed service standards and are deemed backlogged. The total number was down by seven per cent compared to more than 2.1 million a year ago, when the backlog stood at almost 900,000.

Yet, processing time for permanent residence for spouses and common law partners from within Canada (but outside Quebec) has skyrocketed to 29 months from 10 months; sponsorships of parents and grandparents to 36 months from 24; skilled immigrants nominated by provinces to 20 months from 11; and candidates destined for Atlantic provinces, up to 11 months from seven.

Those seeking to extend their stay in Canada have also seen longer wait times: for visitor extension, to 161 days from 88 days; for study permits, to 236 days from 55 days; and for work permits, to 238 days from 101 days.

“If you submit an application, it could show 120 days, but all of a sudden it shoots up to 226 days,” said Tamara Mosher-Kuczer of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association. “The processing time is changing constantly, so it means absolutely nothing.” 

The Ottawa lawyer said these surging processing times are at least in part the results of the federal government’s reduced immigration levels announced last October, and they reflect its changing priorities.

In response to a public outcry over surging population growth that has contributed to the housing affordability crisis and strained government services, Ottawa has reduced its annual intake of permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000 this year, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.

It’s also slashing the temporary resident population in Canada, including international students and foreign workers, by 445,901 this year and 445,662 in 2026, while increasing it modestly by 17,439 in 2027. The goal is to reduce its proportion in the country’s overall population from 7.3 per cent to under five per cent in three years. 

“They have these targets and they don’t want to exceed these targets,” said Mosher-Kuczer. “They’re slowing the flow, so that the next cohort goes into the next year.”…

Source: Processing times for some Canadian immigration applications have surged, but not others. Here’s why

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Canadian Immigration Tracker First Quarter 2025

2025/05/23 Leave a comment

My regular update on key immigration programs, now being updated on a quarterly basis.

Impact of government caps and restrictions can be seen for temporary workers and international students, with levelling off of new permanent residents.

Ministerial mandate letter and related public statements indicate that government likely to maintain current limits and levels until 2027.

This year’s levels plan, which will likely include temporary residents as was the case for last year, will provide confirmation of the government’s intention.

As usual, slide 3 highlights the changes by program.

Covid-19 Immigration Effects – Key Slides – March 2025Download

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Producer behind American citizenship reality show first pitched format to CBC with Jonathan Torrens

2025/05/23 Leave a comment

Of interest, less a survivor zero-sum approach than it first appeared:

Canadian-American producer Rob Worsoff has spent the past week being raked over the coals for pitching a reality TV show to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security – one where immigrants would compete for a fast-track to American citizenship.

The British tabloid Daily Mail, which broke the story and reported that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was backing the idea, dubbed the concept “insane.”

American magazine The New Republic called Mr. Worsoff‘s idea “twisted” and “barbaric,” while a column in The Guardian declared: “We’ve entered the realm of the truly depraved.”

But Mr. Worsoff protests that The American, as his unproduced show is tentatively titled, is not a “Hunger Games for immigration.”

Instead, the Montreal-born producer, an American immigrant himself, says that he has long imagined a reality show that would humanize the immigration process – and, in fact, he first pitched the idea in a Canadian version to the CBC alongside TV personality Jonathan Torrens in 2006.

“The Canadian was a show that took place in every province and celebrated what it means to be Canadian,” recalls Mr. Worsoff, over the phone from Los Angeles, of the earlier unproduced version of the reality competition….

Source: Producer behind American citizenship reality show first pitched format to CBC with Jonathan Torrens

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ICYMI: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

2025/05/21 Leave a comment

Important analysis regarding a highly dubious assumption:

…But economists who have analyzed immigration statistics say that any reductions would not reflect the true number of temporary residents living here and may mean that pressure on housing and services will not be eased to the extent expected. 

Official population figures also fail to capture undocumented migrants who last year Mr. Miller estimated could number about 600,000. 

The economists warn that Ottawa is overestimating the number of temporary migrants who leave the country once their visas expire. This could have a serious impact on planning, including for housing demand, they say.

“The undercounting of non-permanent residents is an issue that must be addressed in order for this policy to be effective,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC.

There are just over three million non-permanent residents in Canada, according to the latest Statistics Canada population estimates. 

Non-permanent residents include international students, work-permit holders, asylum claimants and family members of work- or study-permit holders. 

Population estimates by Statscan presume that visa holders whose permits to stay here have expired leave the country within 120 days, but many do not leave and remain and work in Canada, said Henry Lotin, a former federal economist and founder of the consultancy Integrated Trade and Economics. 

“We know that many, perhaps even half, of these expired visa holders are awaiting permanent residency or a renewal of their temporary visa,” Mr. Lotin said. “The population estimates as presented assume expired temporary residents leave the country − that is a fiction.” 

“Policy makers and planners need accurate population estimates to plan adequate housing, infrastructure, health care and other social services. No one plans for population you are told you do not have.”

An analysis published last month by Mr. Tal, with input from Mr. Lotin, also expressed concern that Statistics Canada is not counting people with extended Temporary Resident Visas who do not have work permits. …

Source: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

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ICYMI: Canadian telecom firms blame immigration policies for mobile subscriber slowdown

2025/05/21 Leave a comment

An example of the how the corporate world became somewhat dependent of large numbers of permanent and temporary immigration:

…For years, Canada’s top telecom providers rode a wave of high immigration, collectively adding hundreds of thousands of new mobile phone subscribers most quarters. Those days are over. 

Canada’s three biggest wireless firms — BCE Inc., Rogers Communications Inc. and Telus Corp. — all cited tighter immigration rules when explaining to investors over the past two quarters why subscriber growth has slowed. The trio recorded fewer than 54,000 net new mobile subscribers in the first quarter, the lowest number in four years. 

Two years ago, the country’s population grew 3.1%, a rate not seen since the 1950s, largely due to an influx of foreign students and temporary workers. But last year, as it became clear the housing supply and the health care system were straining from this growth, the federal government enacted measures meant to stem the tide. 

As a result, Canada plans to admit nearly 20% fewer permanent residents this year than its target in 2024, as well as fewer foreign students.

BCE saw a small decline in net mobile phone subscribers in the first quarter, which it said was partly due to “slowing population growth attributable to government immigration policies.” The company’s revenue is falling, which was a consideration in its decision to slash its dividend by over half — the first cut in 17 years.

Telus also said reduced immigration hampered its mobile subscriber growth when it reported earnings on Friday. And Rogers, which has the largest number of wireless customers, reported a weak quarter of growth on that metric and also cited “slowing population growth as a result of changes to government immigration policies.” 

Source: Canadian telecom firms blame immigration policies for mobile subscriber slowdown

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ICYMI: Foreign student asylum claims hit record high in 2024, set to grow in 2025

2025/05/21 Leave a comment

Of note. About 4 percent of all students is 2024:

International students filed a record 20,245 asylum claims last year, with 2025 on track to surpass that number, according to federal immigration data obtained by Global News.

The claims are rising, even as Ottawa cuts the number of study permits it issues, with Prime Minister Mark Carney pledging like his predecessor Justin Trudeau to return Canadian immigration to “sustainable levels.”

The newly released figures also suggest that 2025 could see an even greater number of claims by foreign students. In the first three months of the year, international students filed 5,500 asylum claims, a 22 per cent increase from the same period last year.

The data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada show the number of international students seeking asylum last year was nearly double the 2023 figures and six times higher than in 2019.

Immigration lawyers say the numbers will keep trending upwards, as the federal government restricts previously available pathways to permanent residence, and as the backlog for adjudicating cases continues to balloon.

“The government has closed a lot of doors for international students to apply for permanent residence through regular streams,” said Toronto-based immigration and refugee lawyer Chantal Desloges.

“As a result, it’s funneling people to look for other solutions.”

Pressure grows to ‘dial back’ levels

During his first news conference as prime minister, Carney repeated his pledge to cap the total number of temporary workers and international students to less than five per cent of the Canadian population by the end of 2027, down from seven per cent.

“This will help ease strains on housing, on public infrastructure and social services,” said Carney on May 2.

Source: Foreign student asylum claims hit record high in 2024, set to grow in 2025

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Party Platform Immigration and Citizenship Comparison: Quick Look

2025/04/23 2 Comments

Here is my quick comparative table on the specific immigration and citizenship commitments of the four major parties. Striking no specific mention of either immigration or citizenship in NDP platform:

Party Platform Comparisons Election 2025Download

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Urback: Trump’s policies will send asylum seekers to Canada’s border. What’s our plan?

2025/04/12 Leave a comment

Ongoing issue. One encouraging aspect is that virtually all are entering through official border crossings, number of RCMP interceptions appear stable according to February data:

…Yet even if Mr. Trump leaves the STCA intact, Canada should be ready for a crisis anew at our border with the U.S. (which will only compound the crisis we already have with international student no-shows, and the thousands of international students who have claimed asylum amid policy changes in order to stay in the country). Before he left office, Justin Trudeau committed $1.3-billion to tackle a contrived fentanyl crisis at the U.S.-Canada border. Now that Mr. Trump has revealed that his claimed rationale for his tariffs were an utter fabrication, Canada needs to allocate those funds – and then some – toward the real crisis.

Source: Trump’s policies will send asylum seekers to Canada’s border. What’s our plan?

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Tremblay | Et si la question des réfugiés devenait l’enjeu principal des élections?

2025/04/11 Leave a comment

Likely not going to happen, as is the case with so many non-Trump tariff etc issues:

…Rappelons qu’en plus des Haïtiens, un très grand nombre de Vénézuéliens et de migrants latino-américains seraient également dans la mire des États-Unis. Le président américain estime le nombre total des « illégaux » à 8 millions. Combien le Canada peut-il en accueillir ? Bien malin celui qui peut répondre à cette question.

Pierre Poilievre a répondu que le Canada devait accueillir les « vrais demandeurs d’asile ». Le Bloc exige, lui, une meilleure répartition de ces réfugiés à travers le pays. Mark Carney affirme impérativement qu’il les renverrait d’où ils arrivent, c’est-à-dire aux États-Unis. Rappelons que l’Entente sur les tiers pays sûrs permet de refouler les demandeurs d’asile qui proviennent des États-Unis. Mais nos voisins sont-ils encore un pays sûr ?

Voici une belle occasion pour les conservateurs et pour le Bloc québécois. Une bonne réponse à la crise migratoire pourrait déterminer l’issue des élections, autant sinon plus que la réponse aux menaces tarifaires. Pierre Poilievre pourrait ici regagner tous les précieux points perdus depuis l’arrivée de Mark Carney en se montrant ferme dans cette crise humanitaire et en rappelant que la crise migratoire est véritablement une crise de la vision libérale de ce pays que Justin Trudeau qualifiait, il n’y a pas si longtemps, de « premier État postnational de la planète ». Le chef conservateur pourrait même s’imposer comme l’homme fort capable à la fois de protéger le Canada et de résister à Trump.

Le Bloc a de son côté l’occasion de revenir dans la mêlée pour défendre les intérêts du Québec qui ont été particulièrement malmenés par la gestion migratoire du gouvernement Trudeau. Quant à Mark Carney, il faut se poser cette question à plusieurs dizaines, voire à plusieurs centaines, de milliards de dollars : pourra-t-il continuer à cacher le bilan libéral, surtout en matière d’immigration et de logement, alors qu’une nouvelle crise migratoire s’annonce ? Quelle crédibilité auront les libéraux pour nous convaincre qu’ils seront les meilleurs pour freiner l’afflux de réfugiés après des années de déni et de laxisme éhontés en la matière ?

Qui a dit que la campagne électorale était déjà terminée ?

Source: Idées | Et si la question des réfugiés devenait l’enjeu principal des élections?

… Recall that in addition to Haitians, a very large number of Venezuelans and Latin American migrants would also be in the sights of the United States. The American president estimates the total number of “illegals” at 8 million. How many can Canada accommodate? Very smart who can answer this question.

Pierre Poilievre replied that Canada should welcome the “real asylum seekers”. The Bloc demands a better distribution of these refugees across the country. Mark Carney imperatively states that he would send them back to where they arrive, that is, to the United States. Recall that the Agreement on Safe Third Countries makes it possible to push back asylum seekers who come from the United States. But are our neighbors still a safe country?

This is a great opportunity for the Conservatives and for the Bloc Québécois. A good response to the migration crisis could determine the outcome of the elections, as much if not more than the response to tariff threats. Pierre Poilievre could here regain all the precious points lost since the arrival of Mark Carney by being firm in this humanitarian crisis and recalling that the migration crisis is truly a crisis of the liberal vision of this country that Justin Trudeau described, not so long ago, as “the first post-national state on the planet”. The conservative leader could even establish himself as the strong man capable of both protecting Canada and resisting Trump.

The Bloc, for its part, has the opportunity to return to the fray to defend Quebec’s interests, which have been particularly mistreated by the Trudeau government’s migration management. As for Mark Carney, we must ask himself this question at several tens, even several hundred, of billions of dollars: will he be able to continue to hide the liberal balance sheet, especially in terms of immigration and housing, while a new migration crisis is announced? What credibility will the Liberals have to convince us that they will be the best at curbing the influx of refugees after years of shameless denial and laxity in this area?

Who said the election campaign was already over?

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Venezuelans facing deportation in the U.S. seeking routes to Canada, including by illegal crossings 

2025/04/10 Leave a comment

Something going on with IRCC and CBSA as monthly stats on asylum claimants from IRCC date from December 2014 and irregular arrivals from RCMP/CBSA date from January (former generally issued in about 5 weeks, latter generally a week or two). Impact of cuts on important data given articles like this:

Venezuelans facing deportation from the United States under President Donald Trump’s immigration clampdown are seeking routes to Canada, including illegal crossings, according to Canadian immigration consultants.

They say some Venezuelans have already crossed into Canada – both at regular border posts and by slipping across – with others preparing to come here to escape being detained and deported from the U.S.

Hundreds of Venezuelans are facing deportation after Mr. Trump announced plans to end Venezuelans’ special protected status, introduced by the Biden administration, shielding them from deportation. Some with alleged links to gangs have already been detained and deported.

Immigration experts working with the Venezuelan community said Canada is viewed as a top destination for those who do not want to be returned.

The Canadian government does not deport Venezuelans to their home country, which is beset by violent crime.

Annie Beaudoin, a Canadian immigration consultant based in California, said “the end of the U.S. Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for thousands of Venezuelans, Haitians, and other foreign nationals, has translated into an increase in illegal crossings into Canada.”

She said some Venezuelans, including health and construction workers, attempting to come through illegal crossings might qualify for visas to come to Canada….

Source: Venezuelans facing deportation in the U.S. seeking routes to Canada, including by illegal crossings

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