RBC – A Smarter Immigration Strategy: Five Questions that Could Help Shape Canada’s Future

Good diagnostic and reasonable recommentations:

Canada’s immigration strategy has lost its edge. Population shocks—including the admission of a decade’s worth of immigration in just three years—policy volatility, a diminished focus on skills and experience, and a lack of real time data andtransparency are to blame. The result: public sentiment has turned negative for the first time in more than 20 years.

Without immigration, Canada’s population will be cut in half by the turn of the century. Our population is aging, deaths are outpacing births, and workforce participation is shrinking at a time when international competition for highly skilled working-age talent is growing.

Express Entry is not working as intended The goal of the flagship system is to select applicants with the highest earning potential, and it has; 30% higher median earnings after 3 years than those coming through the Provincial Nominee Program (the next biggest economic stream)a. But sub-categories are now undermining the program, allowing lower scorers to leapfrog people ahead in line.

Categories need to be reined in and more closely aligned with regional talent shortages. Canada needs some immigration categories to address talent shortages (e.g., blue-collar workers), which vary by region. But 80 provincial streams and duplicative federal categories add unnecessary complexity to the system.

Temporary pathways prioritized volume over skill, undermining a core two-step advantage. The focus on attracting workers and students to fill low-wage labour gaps and prop up underfunded colleges undermined a strategy that had seen former temporary residents gain an earnings advantage over direct permanent residents for more than two decades.

Canada could restore its advantage in the global competition for talent by:

• Stabilizing with a population growth target (e.g., 1%)

• Restoring the points system; going back to basics and removing Express Entry sub-categories

• Concentrating most categories at the provincial and territorial level to address regional skills shortages

• Recovering the two-step strategy with highly skilled temporary admissions and Express Entry points for Canadian experience

• Closing the data gap with near real time and more complete information about outcomes, including exits and earnings…

Source: RBC – A Smarter Immigration Strategy: Five Questions that Could Help Shape Canada’s Future

Strategy

Five questions that could

help shape Canada’s future

U.S. Sanctions Cut Off Aspiring Iranians From Tests Needed for Study Abroad

Of note. Shooting themselves in the foot again:

President Trump’s latest sanctions against Iran have forced the cancellation of English proficiency and graduate exams that Iranians rely on to qualify for studying abroad, students and testing services say, penalizing Iranians who are eager to foster relationships with the outside world.

Among those organizations that canceled exams are the Educational Testing Service, which runs the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the Graduate Record Examination (GRE). They are two of the most widely used exams for students seeking admission to English-language graduate programs worldwide.

The Duolingo English Test, an online standardized exam increasingly used by students applying for undergraduate programs, has also suspended testing for anyone who is Iranian and cannot register as the citizen of another country.

Iranian students whose exams were canceled described a growing sense of despair. They said the sanctions were hurting the people who most want to pursue relations with an outside world so often closed off to them by Iran’s clerical rulers and decades of economic isolation….

Source: U.S. Sanctions Cut Off Aspiring Iranians From Tests Needed for Study Abroad

Canadian Immigration Tracker – Second Quarter 2026 Update

Latest update. Compared to the levels plan, government appears to be exceeding all major targets save for Permanent Residents:

‘Unprecedented’ increase in immigration cases creates unmanageable workloads for Federal Court, says chief justice

Immigration cases, and thus IRCC, have for a long time been the largest number of federal court cases. IRCC has long felt that the extensive possibilities to appeal decisions was, if not unmanageable, something that needed reform. The increases flagged here are staggering, reflecting both immigrant and migrant concerns as well as a “legal industry” that has grown commensurately:

A massive increase in immigration cases in the last six years has created unmanageable workloads at the Federal Court, says Chief Justice Alan Diner.

The Federal Court has jurisdiction over a number of immigration matters, such as visa applications, refugee claims, admissibility cases and removals.

Diner, who was sworn in as the top judge for the Federal Court on July 6, said when he joined the court in 2014, it typically saw between 5,000 and 6,000 immigration cases a year.

In 2021, immigration filings quickly began to climb, with 9,700 cases brought before the court that year. Now Diner said the Federal Court is on track to see upwards of 33,000 immigration filings this year alone.

“The judges have the pedal to the metal and are trying to do their utmost,” Diner said.

“They’re working around the clock, working weekends, working vacations, court staff, the same thing, available evenings, available weekends to try and deal with this volume.”

The rapid increase in immigration-related cases coincides with an increase in the number of permanent and temporary immigrants, in addition to asylum seekers, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

More than 14,000 immigration cases were filed between Jan. 1 and June 30, with 28,000 pending. Almost 1,000 cases have been granted hearings for a judicial review….

Source: ‘Unprecedented’ increase in immigration cases creates unmanageable workloads for Federal Court, says chief justice

Trump administration moves to increase H-1B visa fee to more than $100,000

Of note, more shooting themselves in the foot given their importance to the tech sector:

President Donald Trump’s administration on Monday released a proposed regulation to codify an unprecedented more than US$100,000 fee on new H-1B visas for highly skilled foreign workers that Trump first imposed last year but has been blocked by the courts. 

The fee first imposed by Trump in a temporary proclamation last year vastly raises the cost of the visas that are heavily relied on in the tech, education and research sectors. 

A federal judge in June ruled that the fee was illegal and blocked the Trump administration from collecting it. A Boston-based appeals court is reviewing that decision while a different court considers whether a judge in Washington, D.C., properly rejected a challenge to the fee by a major business group.

Trump’s 2025 proclamation imposing the fee expires in September, one year after it was issued, but directed the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to adopt regulations making it permanent. 

The proposed US$103,265 fee by DHS, posted online in the Federal Register on Monday to be formally published on Tuesday, kicks off a 30-day public comment period. …

Source: Trump administration moves to increase H-1B visa fee to more than $100,000

ICYMI – Barutciski: The UNHCR is goading the U.S. into pulling its funding – and putting itself in existential risk

Of note:

Will be interesting to hear comments from refugee advocates on this suggestion:

…To avert a crippling U.S. funding freeze or a complete American withdrawalfrom the UNHCR executive committee, the agency must prove it can be reformed, and member states must broker a compromise. Canada can play a constructive role in finding a face-saving solution that maintains U.S. engagement. With the committee holding its annual general session in October, Canada – an influential member of UNHCR’s executive committee, as the sixth-largest donor in 2025 – has an opportunity to bring its middle-power strategy to life with a bold initiative to save one of the UN’s largest operational programs. 

The best way to prove UNHCR is reformable would be to split the deputy position into two distinct roles: one to oversee humanitarian operations and field execution, which Mr. Salih’s current choice could retain, and the other dedicated strictly to resource management and budgeting, which would go to Mr. Trump’s nominee. This would satisfy Washington’s oversight and audit concerns, and mirror structures already used in other UN bodies like UNICEF and the UN Population Fund. 

Rather than thumbing their noses at the White House, other major members of the executive committee should also admit they share American concerns about a misguided asylum system that is fuelling uncontrolled mass migration. This reality was highlighted in the recent Chisinau declaration, where all 46 members of the Council of Europe – including staunchly progressive Western European nations – agreed that the current asylum system must be reined in to be saved. This non-binding political text explores the self-inflicted dilemmas resulting from overly generous judicial decisions, implicitly acknowledging the Trump administration’s migration-related criticisms of Europe and indicating that Washington’s stance is far from isolated. U.S. pressure has already pushed Ottawa to tighten border controls and amend its asylum procedures. …

Source: The UNHCR is goading the U.S. into pulling its funding – and putting itself in existential risk

Karas: Canada’s deportation backlog is real. The solution is competent enforcement 

Hard not to argue with the release of more detailed data on removals and greater oversight:

…First, dedicate a defined portion of the 1,000 new CBSA officers being recruited over three years to inland enforcement, warrant review, travel-document work, and removals case management. More officers at ports of entry will not by themselves resolve inland files. Resources should follow regional workload and case complexity, not headline-driven national quotas.

Second, assign every enforceable case a responsible officer, a next-action date, and an automatic escalation when a file becomes inactive. CBSA and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada must also finish integrating their case-management information so that court decisions, risk assessments and changes in status move between agencies without delay. Better technology will not remove anyone by itself, but it can prevent thousands of files from disappearing into administrative limbo.

Third, use detention and monitoring proportionately. Detention should remain a last resort, particularly for vulnerable and low-risk individuals. But credible flight risks and serious criminal or security cases require close supervision. For cooperative, lower-risk cases, reporting requirements and alternatives to detention can preserve compliance without the expense and human cost of unnecessary detention.

Fourth, make voluntary departure the default for suitable low-risk cases. Most removals are already unescorted, and CBSA has a dedicated telephone line for people subject to removal orders. A carefully limited return-assistance program could free enforcement officers for fugitives and complex cases—but only if independently evaluated. Canada’s earlier pilot achieved 3,950 removals against a projected 6,955 and became less cost-effective as participation declined. That record argues for disciplined experimentation, not another open-ended program.

Finally, use diplomacy more aggressively where foreign governments delay travel documents. Canada has previously developed country-specific removal and repatriation plans with Global Affairs Canada. Those plans should include clear timelines, senior-level escalation, and public reporting on persistent non-cooperation, while respecting Canada’s international protection obligations.

Parliament has now required monthly reporting on removals, unenforced orders, and the reasons for delay. That transparency should be used to publish outcomes by risk category, inventory age, and impediment—not merely the largest possible removal total. Raw numbers can reward easy administrative closures while difficult public-safety cases remain unresolved.

A credible immigration system must be fair at the front end and final at the back end. Canada should never remove someone before the law permits it. But when every legitimate avenue has been exhausted, a removal order must mean something. The answer is neither mass detention nor empty promises. It is competent case management, risk-based enforcement, international cooperation, and transparent accountability.

source: OP-ED: Canada’s deportation backlog is real. The solution is competent enforcement

Trump’s plan to revoke visas of 200,000 asylum seekers should fuel action by Ottawa, experts say

Likely there is some planning going on but not necessarily in the direction immigration and refugee advocates would prefer until court case plays out:

Immigration experts say Canada should prepare itself for the arrival of asylum seekers at the border after the Trump administration indicated it is preparing a mass cancellation of visas issued over the past decade. 

This week, Washington signalled plans to revoke the tourist and business visasof up to 200,000 foreign nationals who have applied for or are actively seeking asylum in the United States. The move is expected to prompt legal challenges, but if it goes ahead it would be the largest single mass revocation of visas in U.S. history.

Some immigration lawyers and academics researching migration in Canada are urging Ottawa to consider allowing those who face having their visas cancelled to enter Canada on a discretionary basis. 

Under the Safe Third Country Agreement with the U.S., foreign nationals who have already claimed asylum in the United States are turned away at Canada’s border, with a few exceptions, including for those who have family in Canada.

But experts say the Trump administration has undermined the premise of the responsibility-sharing agreement between the two countries by eroding the rights of asylum seekers in the U.S. This latest plan to cancel visas issued between 2016 and 2026 further undermines the pact, they told The Globe and Mail, which is premised on asylum seekers being treated fairly in the United States…. 

Source: Trump’s plan to revoke visas of 200,000 asylum seekers should fuel action by Ottawa, experts say

They served in an Iranian force Canada lists as terrorist. They say they were conscripts — but now may face removal

Of note. Legitimate distinction between conscripts vs regular members:

…On a single day, a large number of Iranian immigration applicants were notified by the Immigration Department that they may be inadmissible because they previously were conscripted to serve the organization. The Unheard Conscripts Advocacy Network believes the number to be several hundred. 

“Conscription is mandatory in Iran and we cannot flee from that,” said Gharehchahi, 35, who has a background in engineering and was assigned to IRGC’s dam-construction projects in 2014 and 2015, after his undergrad studies in Iran. “We all get punished if we don’t do our conscription over there.”

Since Ottawa’s listing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, immigration officials have begun flagging individual Iranian applicants for inadmissibility over alleged ties to the force. But the recent mass notifications — based on possible IRGC membership as a result of service in the force — have shocked the community. People worry the approach is capturing innocent conscripts who have never participated in terrorism.

Is Canada targeting the right people?

The Liberal government’s response to IRGC has been prompted by the group’s downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 in 2020, alleged involvement with other designated terrorist groups and brutal repression of Iranian people. The federal government has also been criticized for admitting IRGC officials in Canada.

With concerns over the regime’s harassment and intimidation of the diaspora in Canada, the Conservatives have urged stronger enforcement to ensure non-citizens are deemed inadmissible if “involved in regime-linked businesses, spreading propaganda, or human rights abuses.” The opposition also wants inadmissibility be extended to immediate non-citizen family members of regime officials.

“The government of Canada has wanted to show the Iranian community in Canada and the rest of the world that it takes the issue of the human rights violations in Iran seriously,” said Toronto lawyer Lorne Waldman, who has had more than 30 consultations with anxious applicants in Canada flagged for potential inadmissibility since Aug. 7….

Source: They served in an Iranian force Canada lists as terrorist. They say they were conscripts — but now may face removal

Canada promised these caregivers a path to permanent residence. Now they say the government is ‘punishing’ them

Another example of earlier IRCC mistakes and consequent corrections impact upon lives:

…It came as a shock two months ago when Ottawa updated its website. It told applicants for the 2025 edition of the home care worker immigration program they’re not eligible for the so-called bridging open work permit. The permit would have allowed them to remain and work in Canada while their permanent residence application is in process.

“Many caregivers who applied in good faith have lost the ability to work legally while waiting for permanent residence processing,” said Kim, 40, who came here from Korea with her husband in 2024. Their work permit expires next week.  

“Leaving us without a viable way to maintain legal work status while stretching the processing time by years is completely unfair.”

What’s also unfair, according to the Canadian Caregivers Assistance Organization, is that the bridging work permit is available to most other economic immigration applicants with pending permanent residence. The advocacy group called it an affront to the contributions of foreign caregivers.

“This is highly discriminatory,” said its founder, Allan Ralph Basa, an immigration consultant based in Toronto. “Why will you deprive these caregivers of the continuity of their status?”

The updated information on the foreign caregiver program followed other recent policy “clarifications” that have resulted in tightened eligibility for Iranian nationals seeking work permit extensions under a special public policyand for international students who graduated from non-credit programs when applying for post-graduation work permit….

Source: Canada promised these caregivers a path to permanent residence. Now they say the government is ‘punishing’ them