MPI: Unleashing Power in New Ways: Immigration in the First Year of Trump 2.0

2026/01/14 Leave a comment

Usual good and comprehensive analysis by MPI:

Having campaigned on and won re-election with immigration as a top issue, President Donald Trump has kept it at center stage in the first year of his second term. Immediately upon returning to office, the administration advanced sweeping changes to immigration policy, unprecedented in their breadth and reach. These changes have made the United States more hostile to unauthorized immigrants while also altering how the government treats immigration and immigrants of all legal statuses and the communities in which they live. The impacts on individuals, families, workplaces, and the nation’s overall economic outlook and global standing will be felt for years ahead.

While some efforts have stalled or not yet met the White House’s lofty goals, the administration has dramatically reshaped the machinery of government to target unauthorized immigrants in the country, deter unauthorized border arrivals, make the status of many legally resident immigrants more tenuous, and impose obstacles for lawful entry of large swaths of international travelers and would-be immigrants. These changes could set the course for reduced family, humanitarian, and employment-based immigration in the future, while also driving key aspects of U.S. foreign policy.

In This Article

To accomplish the administration’s mass deportation goal, Trump advisor Stephen Miller and other aides dismantled longstanding norms. The White House invoked archaic statutes, enlisted support from state and local law enforcement as well as federal agencies that historically had no immigration enforcement role, and pressured foreign governments to receive deportees. Perhaps most visibly, it militarized immigration enforcement: Scenes of troops and masked federal agents roaming U.S. streets, lobbing tear gas and in some cases violently—and even fatally—subduing individuals, have garnered global attention and profoundly changed how many residents go about their daily lives. Among other changes, some U.S. citizens now feel compelled to carry identification with them at all times.

The administration has leaned heavily on executive action rather than seeking legislative change in Congress. As of January 7, Trump had signed 38 executive orders related to immigration, accounting for nearly 17 percent of the 225 total orders signed so far during his first year, which is more than the 220 executive orders signed during his entire first term. The administration also ushered in hundreds of other actions via presidential proclamations and policy guidance that have had profound impacts on immigration policy. The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that the Trump administration in the first year of its second term took more than 500 actions on immigration, surpassing the 472 actions over all four years of Trump’s first term.

While some elements of the administration’s approach mirror policies of the prior term, albeit at far greater scale and scope, the changes of the last year have been arguably more impactful than any during the first term. Administration officials appear to have learned from their first-term experience and have also benefited from a much more sympathetic Congress and Supreme Court. Indeed, Congress in July provided the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with a staggering $170 billion to upscale over Trump’s second term what was already the world’s largest detention and deportation machinery. And the Supreme Court has greenlit several high-profile actions, including revoking Temporary Protected Status (TPS) from about 600,000 Venezuelans, although it blocked the administration from deporting noncitizens without due process and did not allow deployment of the National Guard for immigration enforcement. Key questions on birthright citizenship and other immigration policies are yet to be resolved.

The net change has been dizzying in its scope and speed. After the administration further shut down access to asylum, unauthorized arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border plummeted to the lowest levels since the 1970s. This development has allowed the administration to shift its focus largely to unauthorized immigrants living in the United States, whom MPI estimates numbered 13.7 million as of mid-2023. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests have more than quadrupled since Trump took office, while average daily detention has doubled. On December 19, DHS said that 622,000 noncitizens had been deported since Trump took office, a high—but not historic—number. It is below the 778,000 repatriations carried out in the final full fiscal year of the Biden administration, and well short of the Trump team’s pledge of 1 million deportations per year. The administration’s deportation number likely includes noncitizens turned away at U.S. borders and at airports; limited release of immigration enforcement data means it is unclear who is being counted and how. While the administration claims 1.9 million people have “self-deported” during that same period, it has not provided any data, including on use of the CBP Home app, through which immigrants are offered a free flight and $1,000 payment if they return to their origin country.

The hardline approach has extended to many lawfully present immigrants and those aspiring to come legally. The administration has stripped temporary legal protections from more than 1.5 million humanitarian parolees, nearly completely halted refugee resettlement, and severely restricted access to asylum. It has also erected obstacles and therefore slowed the granting of lawful permanent residence, temporary visas, and U.S. citizenship. International students and scholars have been targeted for expressing their political opinions, many newcomers face extensive vetting of their social media activity and medical history, and hefty new fees and visa bonds have caused some would-be immigrants and visitors to rethink plans to come to the United States. Slower legal immigration will likely affect labor markets, local economies, and the broader economic outlook for years to come, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Congressional Budget Office already reporting negative effects and potential future implications.

This article reviews the changes to U.S. immigration policy during the first year of the second Trump term….

Source: Unleashing Power in New Ways: Immigration in the First Year of Trump 2.0

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Ottawa’s shutting-out of startup founders is shutting down Canada’s future

2026/01/14 Leave a comment

Hard to square “rigorous integrity checks” with speed in decision making. Government generally has a poor record in assessing business immigration programs:

…We are not the only country wrestling with the politics of immigration. Even as the United States turns inward and raises barriers for skilled workers and entrepreneurs, its technology dominance still rests disproportionately on immigrant founders and their teams. 

This should be Canada’s moment: to position ourselves as the destination of choice for the world’s builders, especially in the sectors that will determine our economic sovereignty – artificial intelligence, quantum computing, defence and dual‑use technologies, life sciences, energy transition and advanced manufacturing.

It is not too late to correct course. Ottawa must treat the shutdown of the Start‑up Visa Program not as a restart but a fast pivot. That pivot must include a fast‑track, by‑invitation pathway for founders with credible backing to build from Canada, with rigorous integrity checks rather than paralyzing backlogs. Anything less will send the most ambitious entrepreneurs elsewhere.

Yung Wu is a serial entrepreneur and the former chief executive of MaRS Discovery District.

Source: Ottawa’s shutting-out of startup founders is shutting down Canada’s future

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ICYMI – Revealed: How international student spots are being distributed — unevenly — across Ontario

2026/01/13 Leave a comment

Good and useful data:

…Previous efforts to understand how PALs were distributed across the province were hindered by confidentiality claims and concerns about the impact on competitive advantage, but data obtained through an FOI request provides a detailed breakdown of 2024 allocations and usage, as well as this year’s allocations. Usage data for 2025 is not yet available.

In 2024, Ontario was allocated a total of 235,000 PALs, with a target of 141,000 permits.

Ontario’s public colleges were given 189,416 PALs but used only 55 per cent of them. Public universities, by contrast, used 82 per cent of their 35,460 allocation.

Ontario determined its first year of PAL allocations based on 2023 study permit levels, with exceptions for Algoma University and 13 colleges, including Conestoga, which received fewer permits.

Within the college sector, usage varied widely, with Humber distributing nearly all of its PALs, while Northern College used just 28 per cent. Northern, which had to shutter a private partnership as part of the federal policy changes, has since experienced layoffs, but the loss of international student has been broadly felt across Ontario’s college communities, with more than 10,000 faculty and staff let go and more than 600 college programs suspended or cancelled.

Among public universities, the University of Toronto handed out the largest number of PALs (6,165) in 2024, while the likes of Trent, Guelph, Ottawa and Waterloo universities used nearly all of their allocation. An outlier was Nipissing University, which used only 11 per cent of its PALs.

… What about this year?

In 2025, Ontario’s PAL allocation took a deep cut, falling to 181,590, which had to include, for the first time, graduate students.

Reflecting that, as well as the overall decrease, the province’s public colleges received 113,793 PALs while 57,685 went to universities.

The inclusion of PhD and master’s applicants meant, in some cases, individual numbers rose: U of T, which had 6,395 PALs the year before, received 12,338 this year.

Going into 2026, graduate students attending public institutions will be exempt from the PAL requirement but will be included in the overall cap allocation. So once again, the numbers for individual schools in 2026 will look different….

Source: Revealed: How international student spots are being distributed — unevenly — across Ontario

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ICYMI: Newcomers seeking permanent residency face uncertainty, frustration over Ontario immigration changes

2026/01/13 Leave a comment

Fixing problems after the fact rather than more due diligence in program planning or earlier corrective measures should be the goal:

…Lou Janssen Dangzalan, an immigration lawyer in Toronto, said misrepresentation and fraud has plagued OINP with “unsavory agents or ghost consultants and sometimes even licensed representatives” padding applications with problematic documentation. 

But Dangzalan said it is still a “disruptive and drastic” move to the applicants and the businesses to cancel the trades stream entirely.

“This is purely a political policy choice,” he said.

“I do applaud the Ontario government for acknowledging that there’s a problem, but I’m not sure if basically using a hammer to kill a fly would be a good idea in a house of glass.”

Dangzalan said realistically, applicants should start planning for a possible future where they may need to leave Canada.

“But that doesn’t mean that their PR journey is necessarily over right there. Leaving Canada doesn’t mean that you’re already automatically excluded from the Canadian experience class.”

He said if people have to leave and wait in their home countries for PR, they can work toward gaining skilled work experience there, which can bump their scores, and boost language scores, including by learning French. 

“So, 2026 is going to be tough for a lot of people… 2026 is going to be a year of enforcement… IRCC’s going to scrutinize every single application with more diligence than they ever did before.”

“From a large policy perspective, this is a crisis… There’s still an immigration arms race. A lot of candidates are available who are very fantastic candidates and Canada is going to need this, especially at a time where Canada is trying to wean itself away from its dependence from the United States.”

Source: Newcomers seeking permanent residency face uncertainty, frustration over Ontario immigration changes

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Canada’s immigration system is favouring these kinds of applicants — even over others who score higher

2026/01/12 Leave a comment

More of the preference for French-speaking immigrants in express entry, diluting the CRS:

French-speaking candidates made up 42 per cent of the people invited for permanent residence last year via Canada’s flagship skilled immigrationselection system, which favours applicants fluent in French and is upsetting those who aren’t.

In total, 48,000 of the 113,998 applicants picked under the Express Entry system were chosen for their ability in French. They were selected in periodic draws from the talent pool where candidates post their profiles, and are awarded points out of a 1,200 maximum and ranked based on age, education, work experience and other attributes.

The prioritization of francophone immigration outside Quebec has frustrated non-French-speaking candidates and critics, especially now that Ottawa has slashed the overall intakes of permanent residents in coming years. Many question if this makes sense when candidates without French are passed over despite higher ranking scores.

The deliberate effort is in part to redress the decline in the demographic weight of French-speaking Canadians outside Quebec — down from 6.1 per cent in 1971 to about four per cent today — and ensure the long-term vitality of these minority communities that are key to “Canada’s bilingual and multicultural character.”

“Human capital really isn’t a concern for the francophone draws,” said Calgary-based immigration consultant Mandeep Lidher. “With a score in the high 300s, you’re definitely less educated and you could say less likely to succeed in the Canadian labour market or economically establish yourself.”

In response to the criticism, the Immigration Department pointed out that only top-ranking eligible candidates are selected through the francophone draws. Since selected candidates must meet general eligibility criteria, it said “they demonstrate the ability to economically establish and succeed in the Canadian labour market.”

Ottawa has reduced its permanent resident intakes from 485,000 in 2024 to 380,000 in 2026, while raising the portion of the French-speaking newcomers outside Quebec in the mix from six per cent to nine per cent, and to 12 per cent in 2029….

Source: Canada’s immigration system is favouring these kinds of applicants — even over others who score higher

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Jamie Sarkonak: The federal judge determined to dismantle Canada’s immigration safeguards

2026/01/12 Leave a comment

Judicial appointments matter and have impact. Column would have been more balanced if it had more examples of rejections:

In 2013, Toronto lawyer Avvy Yao-Yao Go described herself as a “loudmouth activist for politicians to contend with.” She was an advocate of chain migration, a former member of the Ontario law society’s equity committee, a vocal critic of journalists and politicians, and once, she even tried to force the government to pay reparations to descendants of Chinese-Canadians impacted by the head tax (after losing one appeal in this process, her organization accused an appeal judge of racism; the complaint was tossed out).

Ideally, she wouldn’t be in charge of waving migrants into the country from a judicial seat. Nevertheless, Go was made a Federal Court judge in 2021 and much of her job is playing immigration gatekeeper. The results are what you’d expect, and they’re not favourable to Canadians….

Go doesn’t wave every single asylum seeker through; her record includes rejections, too. But her decisions in the last year alone show a pattern of leniency for rule-breakers, country-shoppers and, for lack of a better term, bulls–tters. Each instance takes state capacity away from cases that truly matter. It might be that Go feels the need to hold the door open for others, but it’s the rest of us who have to pay for the riff-raff who accept the invitation.

Source: Jamie Sarkonak: The federal judge determined to dismantle Canada’s immigration safeguards

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Bouchard | Des vœux pour le Québec de 2026 [immigration]

2026/01/12 Leave a comment

A noter:

…Il y aurait beaucoup à faire sur le front de l’immigration. Il faudrait d’abord restaurer les programmes d’aide à l’intégration que le gouvernement vient d’abolir. Il faudrait gérer plus efficacement les effectifs à recevoir. Le Québec est ici victime, dit-on, de normes fédérales. Pourquoi ne pas les ignorer ? La crise qui s’ensuivrait sans doute serait bienvenue. Elle montrerait que le Québec peut se redresser et rejeter le rôle du quémandeur sans cesse éconduit.

Plus fondamentalement, le gouvernement Legault manifeste des attitudes et tient parfois un discours malveillant à l’égard des immigrants, dont il fait un bouc émissaire commode pour cacher ses fautes. Ici également, il y aurait un important travail à faire. Il n’est plus possible de légiférer comme si le Québec n’était composé que d’une majorité francophone….

Source: Idées | Des vœux pour le Québec de 2026

… There would be a lot to do on the immigration front. First, the integration support programs that the government has just abolished should be restored. The number of staff to be received should be managed more effectively. Quebec is here a victim, it is said, of federal standards. Why not ignore them? The crisis that would follow would probably be welcome. It would show that Quebec can recover and reject the role of the constantly rejected beggar.

More fundamentally, the Legault government shows attitudes and sometimes makes a malicious speech towards immigrants, of whom it makes a convenient scapegoat to hide its faults. Here too, there would be a lot of work to do. It is no longer possible to legislate as if Quebec were only composed of a Francophone majority….

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Temporary foreign workers switch jobs and earn more after becoming permanent residents, study finds

2026/01/12 Leave a comment

Of note, not terribly surprising but good to see the data behind it:

…The research, which was conducted by economists at universities in Toronto and Chicago, found several benefits for workers who transitioned to permanent residency status.

Temporary foreign workers who were granted permanent residency in Canada between 2004 and 2014 – and thus were no longer on closed work permits which tied them to a single employer – saw an earnings increase of 5.7 per cent three years after they obtained PR status. 

The workers directly benefited from being able to switch positions, the researchers found. There was a “sharp” and “immediate” increase in the probability of a job-to-job transition of 21.7 percentage points over the three years, the paper estimates. And many of those workers switched into better-paying industries. 

“Our main question of interest when we began this research was: what is the effect of being on a closed permit relative to an open permit?” said Kory Kroft, a professor of economics at University of Toronto, and one of the paper’s authors. 

“The main takeaway is once you relax the restrictions, you see a big increase in job mobility. You find that immigrants who were clustered at low-wage jobs quickly sorted themselves into higher-wage jobs.” 

The TFW program is a key immigration stream in Canada that allows employers to hire mostly low-wage foreign workers on a temporary basis in sectors where the government determines there is a shortage of domestic labour, such as agriculture….

Source: Temporary foreign workers switch jobs and earn more after becoming permanent residents, study finds

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Want to immigrate to Canada? Learn French

2026/01/10 Leave a comment

Political objectives over economic, with little evidence shared:

At a time when Canada is clamping down on immigration, there is now a clear strategy for settling permanently in the country: Learn some French.

In 2025, the federal government invited 48,000 people to apply for permanent residency through the Express Entry program for skilled workers because of their French-language abilities. This was substantially higher than invites sent to people with recent work experience in Canada (35,850) or those in health care (14,500) or the trades (1,250).

Over all, the government sent just shy of 114,000 invitations through the Express Entry system for skilled immigration, which ranks candidates by a score. A candidate’s points are based on such factors as age, education, work experience – and crucially, English or French.

…Labour economists have generally taken a dim view of those changes, because it means that stronger candidates can be passed over in favour of those with lower scores.

For example, on Dec. 16, the government invited 5,000 people with recent Canadian work experience to apply for permanent resident status. The cut-off score to get an invite was 515 points.

A day later, 6,000 people were invited to apply in the French category, and the cut-off score was 399 points.

Someone with a lower score may be older, have less education or work experience, weaker language skills – or some combination thereof.

Source: Want to immigrate to Canada? Learn French

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55 ans d’attente pour une résidence permanente

2026/01/10 Leave a comment

Not tenable:

Les immigrants qui ont demandé la résidence permanente via certains programmes humanitaires pourraient ne jamais l’obtenir de leur vivant. Devant la baisse des cibles d’admission d’Ottawa, les délais d’attente ont explosé, allant jusqu’à dépasser les 50 ans dans certains cas, a constaté Le Devoir.

De tous les programmes, c’est celui visant les Ukrainiens qui présente la pire attente : en juillet dernier, le délai de traitement des dossiers était de plus de 55 ans. Pour les ressortissants de Hong Kong, pour lesquels le Canada a mis en place une mesure humanitaire extraordinaire visant à faciliter l’obtention de la résidence permanente, il est de 50 ans. Et dans d’autres programmes humanitaires, l’attente varie entre quelques mois et… plusieurs décennies….

Demandes nombreuses, cibles faibles

L’avocat en immigration Steven Meurrens, à l’origine de multiples analyses de données d’Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada (IRCC), n’est pas étonné de voir les délais exploser. « Je ne suis pas tellement surpris par les délais de traitement élevés », a-t-il souligné au Devoir.

En plus des données qu’il a récoltées au moyen de ses demandes d’accès à l’information, Me Meurrens pointe les données du cahier de transition de la ministre canadienne de l’Immigration, Lena Metlege Diab, publiées sur le site d’IRCC en mai dernier. Le temps d’attente pour les nouveaux demandeurs de la catégorie « motifs humanitaires et politiques d’intérêt public » varie de 12 à 600 mois (de 1 à 50 ans). « Les délais de traitement de nombreuses politiques d’intérêt public et demandes fondées sur des motifs d’ordre humanitaire au Canada augmentent en raison de la forte demande, des contrôles d’admission limités et des objectifs d’admission peu élevés », lit-on sur le site….

Source: 55 ans d’attente pour une résidence permanente

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