Douglas Todd: Warnings of today’s foreign-student exploitation began a decade ago

2023/09/08 1 Comment

Ignored then and no sign yet of meaningful action today:

North America’s foreign-student system is no longer a humanitarian endeavour to lift up the planet’s best and brightest, and support the developing world.

Instead, it’s become a commercial competition full of marketing rhetoric, which is creating chaos in higher education.

That’s what the West’s leading experts in international education told me 10 years ago.

They were describing how governments and post-secondary institutions were adopting an increasingly cynical attitude toward foreign students.

Philip Altbach, Hanneke Teekens and Jane Knight were ahead of their time in lamenting how international education was turning into a “cash cow” for public and private universities and colleges in the U.S. and especially Canada, where there are at least eight times more per capita than in the U.S.

While the concept of international education continues to have upsides, it’s now becoming obvious to many in Canada that the foreign-student system is creating hard times, especially for students from abroad. Even the Liberal government, long in denial, is starting to admit it.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government acknowledges it has pumped up the number of foreign students in Canada to, officially, 900,000. That compares to 225,000 in 2013. And experts say Ottawa’s number is a serious undercount.

The Liberals are still not necessarily admitting the obvious: That governments and post-secondary institutions are addicted to foreign-student spending and fees, which are four times higher than those of domestic students. Ten years ago, foreign students brought $8 billion into Canada, now Ottawa estimates it’s up to $30 billion.

The main problem, however, that has suddenly drawn more attention to foreign students is the out-of-control cost of housing, particularly renting.

International students, say housing analysts, are hiking competition for places to live. The average rent for a one-bedroom in Canada has jumped to a worrying $1,800, according to Rentals.ca. Vancouver is the most extreme in the country, at a devastating average of $3,013. A one-bedroom in Toronto is $2,592.

Foreign students are an expanding factor in such expensive housing — and it’s hurting the study visa holders themselves, who, according to both social media and the mainstream media, are increasingly feeling taken advantage of.

Even Canada’s housing minister, Sean Fraser, last month used the word exploited. And he finally admitted universities and colleges are bringing in far more students than they could possibly provide housing for.

That was before Benjamin Tal, chief economist for the CIBC Capital Markets, told Liberal cabinet ministers the government is dangerously undercounting the number of temporary residents, particularly foreign students, in Canada.

While the government, and Statistics Canada, state there are more than one million non-permanent residents in Canada, Tal’s calculations show there are at least one million more missing from the count. “Housing demand is stronger than what official numbers are telling you and that’s why we’re approaching a zero vacancy rate.”

The government’s calculations, Tal said, have ignored that many foreign workers and students don’t leave the country when their visas expire. They stay on in hopes of applying to become immigrants. Census methods for surveying foreign students, he added, are misleading.

Giacomo Ladas of Rentals.ca says, “International students do add pressure to the rental market,” even while he emphasized it’s not their fault.

“There’s such a supply and demand issue in the rental market right now and they add to this imbalance. The study permits for international students have increased by 75 per cent in the last five years. So, that’s a huge influx of people coming in and nowhere to put them.”

Delegates at a recent Union of B.C. Municipalities’ housing summit heard how rapidly foreign students and other non-permanent residents are adding to demand for housing.

The number of non-permanent residents and newcomers to Metro Vancouver has in five years almost doubled, delegates were told. Foreign students and other recent arrivals own eight per cent of all homes in Metro Vancouver, and account for 25 per cent of renters.

Canada’s housing minister received a lot of media attention in August when he responded to a reporter’s direct question by saying he wouldn’t rule out a cap on international students.

But since then both he and Immigration Minister Marc Miller have backtracked, and Trudeau has warned not to “blame” foreign students.

Miller admitted Canada’s “very lucrative” foreign student system “comes with some perverse effects, some fraud in the system, some people taking advantage of what is seen to be a backdoor entry into Canada.”

Whatever the Liberal cabinet is starting to admit in the past month, however, the public would be naive to expect any real reforms.

In addition to anxiety over the housing crisis, many economists also worry international students are being taken advantage of by employers to keep wages down. An earlier StatCan study showed up to one out of three foreign students aren’t attending school.

While some representatives of universities and college, especially private ones, are trying to shut down debate by accusing critics of blaming study visa holders for high housing costs and low wages, the reality is those raising concerns can be seen as standing up for people on study visas.

Many people are aware of a high suicide rate among international students, including alarms raised by funeral homes. The largest cohort of foreign students, by far, now comes from India, and it is often South Asian voices in Canada who are pointing to their victimization, including employer abuse and sexual harassment by landlords.

And Vancouver immigration lawyers such as Richard Kurland and George Lee add the federal government’s decision to allow unlimited international students is setting up many for future immigration disappointment.

Canada is building far too big a pool of people who will be highly qualified for permanent resident status, they say. Not everyone can win the immigration points-system competition, which has an annual cutoff.

The trouble is a lot of vested interests are eager for the foreign-student gravy train to keep chugging along, regardless of the unintended suffering it causes — including for students desperate for a place to live.

Source: Douglas Todd: Warnings of today’s foreign-student exploitation began a decade ago

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UN envoy links temporary foreign worker program to ‘contemporary forms of slavery’

2023/09/08 Leave a comment

Of note. Wonder how Canada compares to other Western countries, let alone the workers in Gulf countries:

A United Nations official on Wednesday denounced Canada’s temporary foreign worker program as a “breeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery.”

Tomoya Obokata, UN special rapporteur on contemporary forms of slavery, made the comments in Ottawa after spending 14 days in Canada.

“I am disturbed by the fact that many migrant workers are exploited and abused in this country,” he said.

Source: UN envoy links temporary foreign worker program to ‘contemporary forms of slavery’

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Integration – General Deck 2022 data

2023/09/07 Leave a comment

This is an updated version of my earlier deck with 2022 numbers across immigration, citizenship, settlement and multiculturalism, OECD integration indicators and polling data. The narrative has also been updated to reflect the ongoing shift to two-step immigration, and arguably a shift from an immigration-based country to a migration-based country.

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Missing million temporary residents in figures casts doubt on how many have jobs: report 

2023/09/07 Leave a comment

Good analysis by Mikal Skuterud along with policy implications:

A discrepancy of around a million temporary residents between official figures from two federal bodies is leaving Canada in the dark about how many of those residents actually have jobs, an economist is warning.

Mikal Skuterud, a professor of economics at the University of Waterloo, also says Statistics Canada may be dramatically undercounting the number of temporary residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers, employed in Canada. He describes the findings in a report to be published later this week by the C.D. Howe Institute.

The report notes that Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey – which is used to set Canada’s unemployment rate – suggests there were 503,079 temporary residents with jobs in Canada in December last year.

But Mr. Skuterud says information from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, the federal department that issues work permits and study visas to foreign nationals, suggests there were 1,585,664 temporary residents with jobs at that time.

“The problem is that the margin of the difference has become so large, now exceeding one million workers, that labour market analysts are increasingly in the dark,” Mr. Skuterud says in a summary of the report.

He told The Globe and Mail that he believes the true number probably falls somewhere between the survey figures and the IRCC numbers.

“I want to know the truth,” he said. “What’s the true number here? The reality is that nobody knows what the truth is – nobody. And that’s a problem.”

The report says undercounting of temporary residents in labour force figures could have a serious impact on planning to alleviate labour shortages, and could also affect wages.

Mr. Skuterud said accurately assessing the contribution of temporary residents in alleviating labour shortages is crucial for policy-makers.

“As this population continues to surge, the significance of this measurement issue is critical,” he added.

The report, Canada’s Missing Workers: Temporary Residents Working in Canada, says there has been a large increase in the number of temporary residents working in Canada since 2006. Since then, the report says, the discrepancy between the IRCC and Statistics Canada figures has widened.

Mr. Skuterud’s analysis found that Statistics Canada’s labour market survey suggests an increase of 391,600 temporary residents with jobs from 2006 to December, 2022.

But IRCC data – which include information on international students permitted to work, as well as temporary residents in the temporary foreign worker program and the international mobility program – suggest an increase of 1,330,404 over the same period, the report says.

The report does not account for undocumented people working illegally in Canada.

“Since the inflow of temporary residents shows no signs of slowing, it is imperative and urgent that Statistics Canada and IRCC revise their data collection to obtain better estimates of employment in the temporary resident population,” the report concludes.

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, cautioned federal ministers at their August cabinet retreat that there may be around one million more temporary residents living in Canada than government estimates suggest. He reiterated this in a report, published last week.

Melissa Gammage, a spokesperson for Statistics Canada, said in a statement last week that the agency’s statistics on non-permanent residents “are accurate, produced using robust mechanisms and in collaboration with many stakeholders.”

But she said the agency constantly reviews its methodology, and that starting on Sept. 27 it will publish new data tables on non-permanent residents “computed using a revised methodology and going back to 2021.”

The new tables will include new details on non-permanent residents, “such as their estimated numbers and permit types, as well as other methodological improvements,” Ms. Gammage said.

Mr. Skuterud said it is if unclear if this new methodology will include better estimates of employment in the temporary resident population.

The Labour Force Survey samples around 60,000 Canadian households every month and identifies the work activities of people 15 and older. It has lower response rates in certain subpopulations, which may lead to a downward bias in its estimates, Mr. Skuterud’s report says.

The report says there are also serious questions about the accuracy of the IRCC figures, which it says may have an “upward bias.” This could have partly to do with the fact that holders of valid work permits and study permits are not always employed for the entire time their papers are valid. And some temporary residents might hold both types of permits, potentially leading to double counting.

“Unfortunately, with available data sources, it is impossible to determine the magnitude of the upward bias in the estimates based on the administrative data from IRCC,” the report says.

Source: Missing million temporary residents in figures casts doubt on how many have jobs: report

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Landon: Let’s match Canada’s immigration goals with an ambitious housing plan

2023/09/06 1 Comment

Sponsored content or infomercial? That being said, issue is more with the private colleges and colleges that subcontract than with universities:

Thousands of students are arriving on university campuses across the country in the coming days, some living on their own for the first time, some travelling from countries far and wide, and others commuting from home. It is a time of excitement but also of apprehension as Canada is facing an affordable housing crunch.

Universities across Canada have long provided affordable housing for their communities. They’ve also been innovative in managing a growing demand, from getting shovels in the ground quickly for new builds, to repurposing existing buildings, to developing innovative configurations for changing population needs.

We see examples already under way today: Construction has begun for the University of Windsor’s new residence in a public-private partnership with a real estate and development company. McMaster University is opening a new residence in Hamilton, Ont., dedicated to housing graduate students and their families, while another new residence building is set to include space for students and older adults to socialize and learn together, in partnership with the university’s Institute for Research on Aging. The University of PEI will open a new student residence this fall in a space that was first used for the Canada Winter Games. A new residence at the University of Victoria has met the requirements for LEED V4 Gold and Passive House status, “the most rigorous global building standards for sustainability and energy efficiency,” says the university. It also incorporates Indigenous design elements and teachings.

But more needs to be done. Solving the housing crisis requires collaboration among all levels of government. It requires the federal government to meet its commitments to reduce homelessness, construct new homes, and provide Canadians with access to affordable housing that meets their needs. And, it requires the federal government to support community partners, like universities, which can deliver the housing Canada needs.

Here’s where the federal government can start: expand student housing through low-cost financing, broaden eligibility for housing programs through the National Housing Strategy, and open the door to a more collaborative approach to affordable housing projects.

One way governments can incentivize the creation of new housing is by offering loans with favourable terms and interest rates for targeted building projects. The National Housing Strategy’s Rental Construction Financing Initiative does just that, encouraging the construction of sustainable rental apartment projects through low-cost loans.

But retirement residences and student housing don’t qualify. With both an aging population and more students attending postsecondary institutions, we must incentivize the construction of purpose-built rentals that meet Canada’s changing needs. A low-cost loan fund specifically for universities would help to expand student housing and bring down demand for rentals in surrounding communities.

To meet the housing strategy’s target of 160,000 new affordable homes by 2028, Canada must invest in projects and ideas that will move us forward faster. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s Housing Accelerator Fund and Rapid Housing Initiative are working, but we are still far from our goals. More can be done to leverage the unique strengths of universities and other community partners. Universities are well-positioned to help the government quickly deliver for Canadians, with access to land and simplified approval processes.

People around the world see Canada as a destination for opportunity, inclusion and freedom. Our world-class education system attracts students from across the globe to Canadian universities. Our commitment to ambitious immigration goals must be accompanied by an ambitious housing plan.

Higher education serves us well by strengthening our communities and our national economy. In the face of a national housing crisis, universities should be part of the solution.

Philip Landon is interim president of Universities Canada.

Source: Let’s match Canada’s immigration goals with an ambitious housing plan

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Iranian Media Warn About Rapid Growth Of Afghan Immigration – ایران اینترنشنال

2023/09/06 Leave a comment

Of interest. I recall from my time in Iran that there were also many Afghans in Iran during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 80s. UNHCR reports 4.5 million in the 1990s so hard to understand the increased focus apart from the disaster that is the Iranian economy:

Media in Tehran are increasingly sounding alarms about the rapid growth of the Afghan population in Iran, which is estimated to be between five to ten million now.

The conservative Jomhuri Eslami reported last week that unofficial statistics indicate that last fall out of 300 babies born at the hospital of Kavar, a small town near Shiraz, capital of southern Fars province, 297 belonged to Afghan families.

According to the newspaper, which is one of the Islamic Republic’s oldest, the latest statistics also show that the number of Afghans in the province has risen to 357,000 from 121,000 since the Taliban took over the Afghan government in August 2021.

Officials say hundreds of Afghans are entering Iran daily from the eastern borders. Less than one million Afghans in Iran have refugee status, and most of the rest are illegal immigrants.

“Security officials must concerned that the presence of so many foreign nationals will entail many threats [to national security],” Jomhuri Eslami wrote. Iranian authorities and some media usually refer to Afghan immigrants and refugees as “foreign nationals.

The article, extensively republished by other newspapers and websites, also referred to the involvement of two Afghan national in an attack on Shahcheragh shrine and mausoleum in Shiraz on October 26, 2022. Both men were publicly hanged on July 8.

In an unattributed commentary in July, Aftab News, a news website close to former President Hassan Rouhani and the moderate conservative Moderation and Development Party, also warned about what appears to be a massive increase in the number of Afghans in Iran and claimed that authorities are actively encouraging the growth of the Afghan population.

Aftab News alleged that factors such as a lack of control at eastern borders of the country, issuing thousands of tourist visas daily when applicants do not intend to return to their home country, automatic renewal of tourist, pilgrimage and other types of visas, elimination or reduction of cash fines for illegal entry and stay, indicate “targeted planning” by the authorities.

This may refer to some hardliner media openly promoting acceptance of more Afghans in Iran to increase the country’s population as a solution to the falling birth rate among Iranians when the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)linked Tasnim news agency suggested in 2022.

Iran’s population growth rate has dropped to around 0.7 percent in the past few years.

“Acceptance of immigrants can be one of the key solutions to overcome the problem of [dwindling] population and workforce given the drop in the fertility rate in the country,” Tasnim said in an unattributed commentary entitled “Iran Forced to Accept Immigration of Foreign [Nationals] to Resolve Its [Dwindling] Population Problem” on May 19, 2020.

“The closeness of beliefs and culture of neighboring countries, particularly Afghanistan, has provided an extraordinary opportunity to Iran in this regard,” the commentary said, presumably with an eye to accepting more Afghan Hazaras who are Shiites like Iranians.

Hazaras make up the biggest ethnic group among Afghan immigrants to Iran followed by Sunni Tajiks, Pashtuns and Uzbeks.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly stressed that the country’s population should rise to at least 150 million, presumably to strengthen the only Shiite-ruled Muslim state.

Faraz Daily, an online newspaper, reported last week that there are now transportation companies that move commercial consignments and belongings of Afghan household to Tehran within a week from Kabul and Herat.

This, the newspaper argued “has been causing concerns in Iran because the illegal residence of these immigrants, in the absence of laws and policies to regulate their presence, will lead to numerous political, social and even security challenges,” Faraz Daily wrote.

Source: Iranian Media Warn About Rapid Growth Of Afghan Immigration – ایران اینترنشنال

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Delacourt: Is Canada’s housing crisis about to take a very dark turn?

2023/09/05 Leave a comment

I am less concerned than Delacourt given that it is possible to discuss levels of permanent and temporary migrants and their impact on housing, healthcare and infrastructure without being xenophobic. After all, both immigrants and non-immigrants are affected and with the exception of the PPC, all parties understand the need to be careful.

In the case of the Conservatives, it is partly the fear of being labelled as racist or xenophobic by the Liberals but of greater importance is the 51 ridings in which visible minorities are the majority, many who are immigrants themselves.

As I argued in Has immigration become a third rail in Canadian politics?, I believe it is possible to have such a discussion and would argue that we court greater risks by not having this discussion. But we shall see:

If politicians in this country are going to be seized with housing in the coming months — as they are all promising — they’re going to have to learn to tread carefully around the minefield of immigration.

Blaming immigrants for the housing crisis in Canada is something that all political parties say they’re keen to avoid, yet there have already been risky remarks on that score, across the board. And there will probably be more.

New Housing Minister Sean Fraser embarked into that perilous territory a few weeks ago when he said Canada might need to crack down on universities attracting foreign students without the means to house them properly.

Fraser, to be clear, said he wasn’t blaming the students and indeed stressed: “we have to be really, really careful that we don’t have a conversation that somehow blames newcomers for the housing challenges.”

That didn’t stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from accusing Justin Trudeau’s government of whipping up resentment against immigration.

“I think Justin Trudeau would love Canadians to blame immigrants for the housing crisis that he has doubled. But immigrants are just following the rules that he put in place. So how can we blame them and not him?” Poilievre told reporters.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford continues to pin the housing crisis in his province — not to mention his Greenbelt scandal — on the desperate need to accommodate Ottawa’s abrupt increase to the number of newcomers to Canada.

“I didn’t know the federal government was gonna bring in over 500,000 (newcomers),” Ford said at a testy news conference this week.

“I didn’t get a phone call from the prime minister saying, ‘Surprise, surprise. We’re dropping these many people in your province and by the way, good luck, you deal with them.’”

To hear Ford tell it at that news conference, most of the unhoused people in his province are people who weren’t born in Canada. He talked of a phone call he got from a new Canadian in danger of losing his house and about the refugees and asylum seekers sleeping in church basements.

As my Queen’s Park columnist colleague Martin Regg Cohn put it, “if tolerance is truly his goal, the premier is playing with rhetorical fire … It’s not a dog whistle. It’s a bullhorn being blown from Ford’s bully pulpit.”

Much has been made over recent years about how Canada has avoided the anti-immigration backlash that has arisen during the Brexit debate, not to mention Donald Trump’s rise to power in 2016 in the U.S.

It is a testament to tolerance in this country, most certainly, as well as to the fact that political success has often hinged on who best can attract the cultural communities in Canada. That was part of Stephen Harper’s big break from opposition to power and then a majority from 2006 to 2015, and it was the flirtation with anti-immigrant sentiment (barbaric cultural practices) that helped get the Conservatives booted from power.

Little wonder, then, that Poilievre walks quickly backward from any argument with the Liberals over immigration numbers. The current Conservative leader hasn’t minded lifting a few pages from Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada — globalist conspiracies included — but he hasn’t joined the “no mass immigration” chorus of the Bernier crowd.

Trudeau was asked at the cabinet retreat last month in PEI whether he was worried about the housing crisis taking a dark turn into anti-immigration sentiment. He said the housing crisis also includes a labour shortage; that for every suggestion that Canada doesn’t have enough homes, there is the reply that Canada doesn’t have enough people to build them. “That’s why immigration remains a solution.”

Most Canadians, or at least many of them, would say it’s possible to have a political debate this fall about housing without reopening a conversation into how many is too many when it comes to newcomers.

But the foreign interference fixation, which dominated political debate in the first half of this year, bodes ill for that kind of optimism. At many points in that debate, one could well have concluded that Chinese interference was the only kind of meddling we should be worried about. Some Chinese Canadians expressed justified concern that the whole foreign meddling conversation was going to make any kind of political involvement from them suspect. I continue to wonder why there wasn’t similar outrage being voiced about Russian meddling or even Americans messing around in Canadian politics.

This is all to say that when political debates get intense, as the housing one is shaping up to be, it can create collateral cultural damage. Right now, all the politicians are saying they can keep anti-immigration talk out of the housing crisis. We’ll see whether they’re up to that this fall.

Source: Is Canada’s housing crisis about to take a very dark turn?

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New Report Reveals Immigrant Roots of Fortune 500 Companies 

2023/09/05 Leave a comment

Of note:

In an annual review of the most successful companies in the United States, the American Immigration Council unveiled today a report that sheds light on the contributions of immigrant entrepreneurs and their children to the U.S. economy. The report, “New American Fortune 500 in 2023: The Largest American Companies and Their Immigrant Roots,” reveals that an impressive 44.8% of Fortune 500 companies in 2023, equating to 224 companies, were founded by immigrants or their children.  

Since the inception of the New American Fortune 500 report in 2011, the American Immigration Council has consistently tracked the impact of immigrant founders and their descendants on corporate America. The report draws from Fortune Magazine’s annual ranking of the United States’ 500 largest corporations, ranked by revenue, to analyze the share of companies that were founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants and these firms’ contributions to the U.S. and global economy. 

These New American Fortune 500 companies collectively generated a staggering $8.1 trillion in revenue during fiscal year 2022, surpassing the GDP of several developed nations. Their significant contributions extend beyond revenue, as they employ over 14.8 million people, emphasizing their role as a crucial driver of job creation and economic prosperity. 

“These New American Fortune 500 companies stand as a testament to the extraordinary entrepreneurial spirit of immigrants. Immigrants have long been economic catalyzers, known for igniting innovation and growth across industries,” said Steven Hubbard, senior data scientist at the American Immigration Council. “This report underscores the pivotal role that immigrants and their descendants play in shaping the nation’s economic landscape. Their innovative contributions and dedication to entrepreneurship have contributed significantly to the United States’ standing as a global economic powerhouse as evident in this report.” 

Furthermore, the report showcases the state-level impact of these New American Fortune 500 companies. New York leads the states with the most companies (30), followed by California (24), Texas, Illinois, Florida, and Virginia. These companies collectively shape state economies, with revenues in some cases exceeding a significant portion of the state’s GDP. 

The full report and interactive tool can be accessed here.   

Source: New Report Reveals Immigrant Roots of Fortune 500 Companies

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Cryderman: Liberals are late to housing, and time is running out

2023/09/04 Leave a comment

Arguably, already run out given time lags in increasing supply and likely reluctance by government to freeze or reduce levels of permanent and temporary residents:

Whether talking about shacks or sidesplits, Pierre Poilievre has owned the housing affordability file from the time he became Conservative leader one year ago. This is not because he has all the answers, or warms hearts with his words. It’s because he gives the issue the time and weight it deserves.

After a cabinet retreat in Prince Edward Island where housing was the key focus, it appears the Liberals are finally grasping the practical and political urgency of the situation, as Mr. Poilievre long has. They are listening to what people have been saying in the country’s largest cities for years – and is now being said from Charlottetown to Kingston to Kelowna: The cost and scarcity of housing in Canada is bonkers.

At least in words, there appears to be greater recognition of that from newly minted Housing Minister Sean Fraser. He has added shifts of tone on housing since the Liberal cabinet shuffle in July.

He’s saying reasonable things such as: Maybe the federal governmentshould be more thoughtful about its international student program that has seen “explosive growth” and driven up housing costs in postsecondary communities. And it should start to use the power of the $4-billion Housing Accelerator Fund, first promised by the Liberals two years ago, with some political gusto.

In an interview with The Globe, Mr. Fraser added something new to the list: that his government has put a new focus on housing affordability for the middle class.

“This is now not just a crisis for low-income families,” Mr. Fraser said.

“This is a crisis for seniors who are looking to retire under very different circumstances than existed even a few years ago. It is a crisis for students who cannot find a place they can afford to live within an hour commute of the campus. And it is a crisis for young people who are seeking to get into the market who often have two people working in the household, and still can’t afford a place to live.

“It’s not reasonable for us to maintain an exclusive focus, or even a primary focus, that only speaks to low-income social housing.”

This reflects the truth that rents are up across the country, as demand grows and higher interests weigh on pocketbooks. Where I sit in Calgary, relatively affordable by other big city standards, rents are up an average of 16 per cent, year-over-year. The typical price of a home in the country is more than $760,000. The Canadian public is not going to be particularly patient in waiting for the 5.3 million homes economists say the country needs to build by 2030 to solve the affordability crisis.

Mr. Fraser said Canada is looking at a total capital spend that could exceed a trillion dollars to hit that housing target – “not an amount of money that most people can conceive of.” This will have to come both from the private and public sectors.

But it’s needed, not only in the real world, but also in the political sphere. Young people, according to recent polls, are increasingly disenchanted with the governing party. Some believe the Liberals aren’t doing enough on climate change, a concern exacerbated by a summer of wildfires. But economic anxiety about out-of-control costs, especially on housing, is likely an even bigger reason.

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, told CTV the Liberals’ popularity is down overall but plummeting among younger voters, the demographic that’s helped Prime Minister Justin Trudeau win past elections. The latest Nanos polling shows the Liberals in third place among Canadians aged 18 to 29 years old with 16 per cent support, compared with the Conservatives and the NDP with 39 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.

Polls are just a snapshot in time, but the trend isn’t good for the incumbents. Although the election is likely two years away, the problem requires complicated solutions and time is not on their side.

Mr. Fraser refutes Conservative claims that the Liberals weren’t paying attention or were negligent as the housing situation worsened. The last two years have been exceptional, he said. “What’s happened in the last couple of years in particular is there has been a shift in the housing continuum in terms of where the intense need is.”

As the former immigration minister, Mr. Fraser appears keenly aware his current and past portfolios have some overlap. He speaks of not decreasing immigration to address housing pressures, but becoming more thoughtful about it.

The country needs new people and workers, and has a moral imperative to welcome refugees. But the Liberals have boosted Canada’s immigration and non-permanent resident numbers to historic levels – and sometimes undercount those who are here. Canada’s ranks are growing quickly, and a BMO analysis earlier this year said that for every 1 per cent of population growth, housing prices typically increase by 3 per cent.

“The people we want to bring in want to stay for the rest of their lives. Let’s plan for it. And then let’s target the people who can improve the quality of life that not only their family gets to enjoy in Canada, but to improve the quality of life for Canadians who’ve lived here for generations, by addressing some of these social challenges – in particular around housing and health care.”

Even before Parliament resumes on Sept. 18, Mr. Fraser said he intends to act by “actually leveraging the federal spending power to incentivize change at municipal levels.” In short order, there will be an announcement on the municipalities that will receive help through the vaunted Housing Accelerator Fund.

BMO has also raised concerns about “an investor class” that’s increasingly dominating the real-estate market, as opposed to the people who actually live in the homes. Mr. Fraser said investors have a key role to play in creating housing units, but he is worried about homes being held by investors that remain vacant.

Ottawa will soon change the financial equation for home builders to get more units built, he added in the interview. Although the minister wouldn’t go into specifics, economists have said it’s time to waive or defer the sales tax developers incur for purpose-built rentals to incentivize new building.

All and all, Mr. Fraser said Canadians should expect to see aggressive action by the federal government to get more homes built, across the housing continuum. The question is not only whether this large task can be accomplished but also whether the Liberals, late to urgency on this issue, can catch up to the Conservatives on the political front.

Source: Liberals are late to housing, and time is running out

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Réplique d’André Pratte à Mathieu Bock-Côté: une analyse injuste du PLQ qui ne tient pas la route

2023/09/04 Leave a comment

I’m with Pratte but appreciate the discussion and the contrasting perspectives. And for MBC to accuse Pratte of “ne soit pas conscient de ses propres mécanismes mentaux,” the same could be said by MBC:

Dans une chronique publiée dans Le Journal de Montréal samedi dernier, Mathieu Bock-Côté (MBC) accuse le Parti libéral du Québec de tenir un discours qui «repose explicitement sur la mise en minorité démographique des Québécois francophones par l’immigration massive pour fabriquer un nouveau Québec. Ce discours souhaite la disparition de notre peuple.»

Témoin à charge numéro un: Balarama Holness, qui s’est présenté aux élections de 2022 à la tête de son propre parti, Bloc Montréal. Celui-ci a recueilli moins de 0,2% du vote dans la province. M. Holness ne représente en rien le PLQ; c’est un marginal.

Témoin numéro deux: la militante Idil Issa, qui n’est pas membre du PLQ.

En quoi les propos supposément «haineux» de ces deux personnes démontrent-ils quoi que ce soit au sujet du Parti libéral du Québec? 

Le fond

J’aimerais m’arrêter au fond de ce qu’avance M. Bock-Côté: le PLQ manœuvrerait pour noyer le Québec francophone par une immigration massive devant produire «un nouveau Québec». Cette thèse, proche du «grand remplacement» des complotistes français, ne tient tout simplement pas la route.

D’abord, parce que le PLQ, s’il prône une hausse raisonnable de l’immigration afin de combler les besoins de main-d’œuvre, n’a jamais soutenu qu’il fallait une «immigration massive» au Québec, à l’image de l’Initiative du siècle proposée à l’échelle canadienne par le comité Barton.

Encore faut-il savoir ce qui, aux yeux de MBC, constitue une «immigration massive». Le seuil actuel, 50 000 nouveaux immigrants permanents par année, est clairement excessif à ses yeux. Qu’est-ce qui serait raisonnable: 30 000? 10 000? Zéro?

Quoi qu’il en soit, les projections de Statistique Canada montrent bien que même dans le cas d’une immigration beaucoup plus nombreuse qu’aujourd’hui, les immigrants et résidents non permanents ne représenteraient toujours que 27% de la population totale du Québec en 2041, contre 23% sous un scénario de faible immigration. De quelle «disparition» MBC parle-t-il?

Par ailleurs, des projections publiées par l’Office québécois de la langue française démontrent que même si les immigrants choisis par le Québec parlaient tous français à leur arrivée – c’est l’objectif du gouvernement Legault – cela ne changerait pas grand-chose aux grands indicateurs démolinguistiques. Le français langue maternelle continuerait de diminuer lentement – c’est le fait inexorable de la faible natalité chez les Québécois dits «de souche». L’élément le plus important, la connaissance du français au sein de la population québécoise, y compris les immigrants, resterait très élevée à près de 95%.

Main-d’œuvre

Il est vrai que depuis quelques années, le nombre de résidents non permanents a considérablement augmenté au Canada, entre autres au Québec. Cela est dû aux besoins croissants en main-d’œuvre et à la hausse du nombre d’étudiants étrangers. À un point tel que le ministre fédéral de l’Immigration a récemment évoqué la possibilité de limiter le nombre d’étudiants internationaux admis au pays. 

On se serait attendu à des applaudissements venant de François Legault, grand admirateur de MBC. Eh! non, l’intention fédérale a été dénoncée parce qu’il s’agirait d’une violation des compétences provinciales, tandis que les universités et collèges en région ont souligné l’importance cruciale pour eux de cette clientèle internationale. Il faudrait se décider: ou l’immigration est une menace, ou c’est une richesse?

Les libéraux du Québec, eux, optent avec conviction pour la seconde option. Il suffit de commencer à dresser la longue liste de Québécois de souche immigrante qui ont fait leur marque ici, en français, dans les domaines politique, économique et culturel pour confirmer cette vision positive des choses.

Si M. Bock-Côté fréquentait les libéraux du Québec au lieu de les imaginer dans ses cauchemars, il saurait combien ils aiment le Québec français et y sont profondément enracinés. Les accuser, sans fondement, de «souhaiter la mort de notre peuple» est faux et injuste. 

André Pratte, Coprésident du Comité sur la relance du Parti libéral du Québec

RÉPONSE DE MATHIEU BOCK-CÔTÉ

Oui, le PLQ instrumentalise politiquement l’immigration. Voyons pourquoi.

Le PLQ a-t-il intérêt à accélérer la transformation démographique du Québec? 

C’est ce que je soutenais dans ma chronique de jeudi. 

André Pratte soutient le contraire dans sa réplique, et semble même scandalisé qu’on puisse le suggérer. André Pratte fait semblant d’oublier que son parti, le Parti libéral du Québec, obtient moins de 5% d’appuis chez les Québécois francophones, et qu’il ne se maintient électoralement que grâce à l’appui des anglophones et de l’électorat issu de l’immigration. 

Il veut nous faire croire, probablement, que son parti ne s’en rend pas compte, et que son appui aux seuils d’immigration très élevés des dernières années n’a aucun lien avec cela. Non. Du tout. Zéro. 

D’ailleurs, le PLQ ne favoriserait pas une immigration massive – les seuils d’immigration fixés par les libéraux correspondraient seulement aux besoins des entreprises, ce qui est une fumisterie, mais j’y reviendrai une autre fois. 

Base électorale

Et si André Pratte dit ne pas se rallier à l’Initiative du siècle d’Ottawa, il préfère rester dans le Canada avec la «noyade» démographique (je reprends ici la formule de René Lévesque) annoncée qu’envisager la possibilité de l’indépendance. 

Le français se porterait même mieux que jamais au Québec: pour en arriver à cette conclusion loufoque, Pratte est évidemment obligé de prendre l’indicateur linguistique le moins significatif. 

Il est possible que Pratte ne soit pas conscient de ses propres mécanismes mentaux. Je n’exclus pas cette possibilité.

Si le PLQ est aujourd’hui chassé du Québec francophone, c’est qu’il l’a renié, en assimilant la moindre affirmation de son identité au souffle de «l’intolérance». 

La trudeauisation idéologique du PLQ sous Philippe Couillard a correspondu à son suicide électoral chez les Québécois francophones. Autrefois, le PLQ a porté une vision québécoise du Canada: il porte aujourd’hui une vision canadienne du Québec. Son objectif: toujours ramener à la baisse les critères d’adhésion du Québec au fédéralisme, et le transformer de telle manière que la question nationale se dissolve.

Le PLQ, rationnellement, cherche à élargir sa base électorale: cette stratégie l’a bien servi depuis 20 ans. La transformation de Laval en extension politique et sociologique du West Island en témoigne. Ce sera demain ou après-demain le tour des deux 450 – comme le reconnaissent bien des stratèges libéraux en privé, soit dit en passant. 

Évidemment, le PLQ ne va pas en criant sur les toits qu’il est favorable à une transformation démographique du Québec entraînant la mise en minorité progressive du Québec francophone. Il se contente de fonder son action politique sur cette logique.

Question nationale

Certains, parmi les multiculturalistes les plus militants, se permettent de le dire: j’en ai cité deux dans mon texte. 

Je les recite pour m’assurer que les lecteurs ne les oublient pas.

Balarama Holness affirmait ainsi que le PLQ aura besoin «de deux décennies pour se renforcer en région, le temps qu’il y ait des changements démographiques». Autrement dit, moins les régions seront francophones, plus le PLQ y progressera.

Je recite aussi Idil Issa, la militante multiculturaliste : «C’est les demographics qui vont gagner, finalement. Le Québec de Mathieu Bock-Côté, c’est le Québec du passé. Ils essaient de prendre une photo et de figer le Québec d’une ancienne manière. Nous sommes diverses, le Québec est différent maintenant. On doit être inclusifs. On doit pas aliéner les jeunes. On doit leur donner une place. Je veux que tout le monde qui aimerait être enseignante étudie l’éducation, étudie le droit. Ne soyez pas peur, la loi 21, ça restera pas au Québec, ça, c’est certain. Comme j’ai dit, que ce soit l’année 2300, on ira jusqu’au bout.» 

J’en cite un autre, sans savoir s’il est fédéraliste ou souverainiste, mais qui théorise les effets de cette révolution démographique pour le Québec. Amadou Sadjo Barry, dans Diversité culturelle et immigration (2023), qui écrit: «[…] on pourrait penser que dans les prochaines décennies, la population québécoise sera largement majoritaire en immigrants de première ou de deuxième génération et, par conséquent, aucun groupe, même les francophones descendants des Canadiens français, ne pourrait constituer la majorité. […] Le temps viendra où l’Europe et l’Occident ne suffiront plus comme références pour comprendre le peuple québécois et le définir. Ce temps, ce sera celui du grand déracinement auquel notre monde sera confronté». (p. 148)

Et qu’on me permette d’en citer un dernier: le philosophe Daniel Weinstock. 

Il ainsi affirmait en octobre 2009: «Manifestement, la préoccupation identitaire des Québécois est plus forte que dans le reste du Canada. Le Canadien anglais, c’est déjà un “post-ethnique”, une personne qui peut aussi bien être de souche écossaise que polonaise ou sud-américaine. Les Québécois, eux, ont toujours cette idée qu’ils ont un “nous” à protéger. […]. Quand Montréal comptera un aussi haut pourcentage d’immigrants que Toronto, ces questions ne se poseront plus avec autant d’acuité. Et encore moins quand on constatera qu’on n’a pas les moyens de se priver, par exemple, d’une infirmière, “hijab ou pas”». Autrement dit, la question identitaire québécoise allait se dissoudre au rythme de la transformation démographique de la société québécoise et de la mise en minorité des Québécois francophones. La société multiculturelle à laquelle rêvait Weinstock, et qui correspond globalement à la vision que le Canada de 1982 a de lui-même, présupposait pour se concrétiser une recomposition démographique québécoise.

Ce discours est courant, même si les médias y accordent peu d’attention. Je me corrige: il est possible d’en parler si c’est pour s’en réjouir. On chantera alors la diversification croissante du Québec. Si on s’en inquiète, on est accusé du pire. Il faudrait cesser, comme le fait Pratte, d’assimiler toute réflexion sur les effets démographiques et identitaires de l’immigration à la «théorie du grand remplacement», dont nulle figure publique ne se réclame au Québec – cette méthode relève à la fois de la malhonnêteté intellectuelle et de l’intimidation idéologique. 

C’est le simple bon sens: quand un pays reçoit davantage d’immigrés qu’il ne peut en accueillir, il favorise la formation de communautarismes dans ses frontières. Si les décennies passent, que l’immigration massive se poursuit, et que la machine à intégrer ne fonctionne toujours pas, c’est l’identité profonde de ce pays qui se transformera et sa majorité historique qui se minorisera. 

Mais revenons au PLQ. Il ne me semble pas inutile de rappeler qu’Ottawa, en 1995, a utilisé l’immigration massive à la manière d’un verrou démographique sur l’avenir politique et constitutionnel du Québec. Plus la majorité historique francophone fondra démographiquement, et moins le Québec aura de chances d’accéder à l’indépendance. 

L’ex-député libéral Christos Sirros l’avait dit mot pour mot au lendemain du référendum: «le désir d’indépendance des Québécois allait s’éteindre avec l’immigration». Il ne faisait que dire tout haut ce que les partisans du plan B dans les années postréférendaires pensaient tout bas.

En cherchant à casser la structure démographique du Québec, Ottawa entend en finir une fois pour toutes avec la possibilité de l’indépendance, et c’est dans cet esprit, encore une fois, qu’au lendemain du dernier référendum, dès sa reprise du pouvoir, le PLQ a haussé les seuils.

Qu’on me comprenne bien: je ne réduis évidemment pas l’immigration à son utilisation politique par le PLQ. 

Il y a de belles histoires d’intégration, d’ailleurs, comme Pratte le rappelle, et nul ne le contestera. Qui serait assez sot pour dire d’un phénomène de grande ampleur comme l’immigration qu’il est exclusivement positif ou exclusivement négatif?

Régime canadien de 1982

Mais la dynamique de fond, portée par le régime canadien, favorise davantage l’intégration des immigrés aux Canadiens anglais du Québec qu’aux Québécois francophones, et rien ne laisse croire que la tendance basculera à court ou moyen terme. 

Cette intégration à la communauté anglophone passe normalement par une identification privilégiée à Montréal, métropole bilingue aux deux langues officielles, fondée sur le principe du bonjour-hi. Le français, dans cette perspective, devient optionnel. La loi 101 n’entend plus ici assurer l’intégration identitaire des nouveaux arrivants à la majorité historique francophone mais conserver le droit pour cette dernière de se faire servir en français. Ce n’est plus une loi mettant le français au pouvoir mais assurant les droits minoritaires des francophones. 

Alors revenons au sujet de notre discorde: autant il serait hasardeux de réduire la question de l’immigration à son usage politique par les partis, autant il serait absurde de nier cette dimension. 

Ce qui nous ramène à cette évidence: l’immigration massive est une richesse électorale pour le Parti libéral. Il est de bonne guerre qu’André Pratte le nie. Mais le fait que cette vérité soit désagréable ne la transforme pas soudainement en fausseté.

Mathieu Bock-Côté

Source: Réplique d’André Pratte à Mathieu Bock-Côté: une analyse injuste du PLQ qui ne tient pas la route

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