Citizenship-by-Investment: Henley Global Citizens Report 2022 Q2 Press Release

2022/07/19 Leave a comment

Always interesting to see where the money is going. Canada is on the list for the start-up visa program, which is distinct from most of the other programs listed in terms of being based more on actual investment than just residence (but look forward to an eventual IRCC evaluation to see how effective it is):

“A tsunami of private capital has left Russia and Ukraine, the UK has lost its wealth hub crown, and the US is fading fast as a magnet for the world’s wealthy, with the UAE expected to overtake it by attracting the largest net inflows of millionaires globally in 2022, according to the latest Henley Global Citizens Report, which tracks private wealth and investment migration trends worldwide.

The Q2 report released today by international residence and citizenship by investment advisory firm Henley & Partners exclusively features the latest projected 2022 net inflows and outflows of US dollar millionaires (namely, the difference between the number of HNWIs who relocate to and the number who emigrate from a country) forecast by New World Wealth. The firm is the only known independent wealth research company systematically tracking international private wealth migration trends over the past decade. The HNWI migration figures focus only on people with wealth of USD 1 million or more and who have truly moved — namely, those who stay in their new country more than half of the year.

As expected, Russia has suffered the biggest emigration of millionaires over the past six months, with forecast net outflows of 15,000 by the end of 2022 — a massive 15% of its HNWI population and 9,500 more than in 2019, pre-pandemic. Russia’s invasion is in turn driving a steep spike in outgoing HNWIs from Ukraine, which is predicted to suffer its highest net loss in the country’s history — 2,800 millionaires (42% of its HNWI population) and a net loss of 2,400 more than 2019. No country-specific figures are available for 2020 and 2021 owing to Covid-related lockdowns and travel restrictions.

Top 10 countries gaining and losing millionaires in 2022

Forecast figures in the Henley Global Citizens Report show the top 10 countries in terms of net inflows of HNWIs in 2022 will be the UAE, Australia, Singapore, Israel, Switzerland, the US, Portugal, Greece, Canada, and New Zealand. Large numbers of millionaires are also expected to move to ‘the three Ms’: Malta, Mauritius, and Monaco. On the flip side, the 10 countries where the highest net outflows of HNWIs are predicted are Russia, China, India, Hong Kong, Ukraine, Brazil, the UK, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.

Dr. Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says HNWI migration was a rising trend over the past decade until, understandably, it dipped in 2020 and 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. ‘The 2022 forecast reflects an extremely volatile environment worldwide. By the end of the year, 88,000 millionaires are expected to have relocated to new countries, 22,000 fewer than in 2019 when 110,000 moved. Next year, the largest millionaire migration flows on record are predicted — 125,000 — as affluent investors and their families earnestly prepare for the new post-Covid world, with an as yet-to-be revealed rearrangement of the global order, and the ever-present threat of climate change as a constant backdrop.’

Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth says HNWI migration figures are an excellent barometer for the health of an economy. ‘Affluent individuals are extremely mobile, and their movements can provide an early warning signal into future country trends. Countries that draw wealthy individuals and families to migrate to their shores tend to be robust, with low crime rates, competitive tax rates, and attractive business opportunities.’

UK and USA – the mighty are falling

According to the latest data, destinations that traditionally attracted wealthy investors are losing their luster. The UK, once touted as the world’s financial center, continues to see a steady loss of millionaires, with net outflows of 1,500 predicted for 2022. This trend began five years ago when the Brexit vote and rising taxes saw more HNWIs leaving the country than entering for the first time. The UK has suffered a total net loss of approximately 12,000 millionaires since 2017.

The appeal of another financial giant, the US, is also dwindling fast. America is notably less popular among migrating millionaires today than pre-Covid, perhaps owing in part to the threat of higher taxes. The country still attracts more HNWIs than it loses to emigration, with a net inflow of 1,500 projected for 2022, although this is a staggering 86% drop from 2019 levels, which saw a net inflow of 10,800 millionaires.

Commenting on the geopolitics of millionaire migration in the Henley Global Citizens Report, award-winning journalist Misha Glenny says private wealth growth is bound to remain anemic in the US this year as political unpredictability looms. ‘In November, the mid-term elections are likely to return a Republican House and possibly the Senate, too. With culture wars between Democrats and Republicans mounting once more with the leaked decision of the Supreme Court to overturn the Roe vs. Wade ruling on abortions, some fear we are entering another period of dramatic instability such as that which characterized the Trump years. As a consequence, some high-net-worth investors will doubtless think twice before committing their wealth to the Americas.’

The UAE’s stellar ascent as a wealth hub

By contrast, the UAE has become the focus of intense interest among affluent investors and is expected to see the highest net influx of HNWIs globally in 2022, with 4,000 forecast — a dramatic increase of 208% versus 2019’s net inflow of 1,300 and one of its largest on record. This mirrors the country’s remarkable rise in the Henley Passport Index rankings over the past decade as it focused on attracting tourism and trade by implementing a succession of mutually reciprocated visa waivers. The UAE is now doing the same with its competitive, agile approach to adapting immigration regulations to attract private wealth, capital, and talent.

Glenny says affluent Russians seeking to escape the impact of the devastating Western sanctions on their country have started to move to the UAE and Israel in large numbers. ‘An underlying pattern was already detectable in advance of the invasion of Ukraine. Well before the imposition of sanctions on the Russian banking system, there was a tsunami of capital leaving the country, largely prompted by the increasingly capricious governing style of President Vladimir Putin and his demands of loyalty made on middle-class and wealthy Russians. They have now come under further pressure from many Western countries, such as Britain, where they had previously made their homes.’

Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore among the big winners 

As Glenny points out, net HNWI inflows are on the rise in Israel, with a figure of 2,500 forecast for 2022 — a significant increase of 79% since 2019.

Long-term high performer Australia consistently attracts large numbers of HNWIs. New World Wealth estimates that over 80,000 US dollar millionaires have moved to the country over the past 20 years. In 2022, the net inflow is expected to be 3,500 — the second-highest globally. Neighboring New Zealand is expected to receive a net inflow of 800 HNWIs in 2022, and Asia’s prime hub of affluence, Singapore, continues to attract millionaires, with net inflows of 2,800 expected — a prolific 87% increase compared to 2019’s figure of 1,500.

Commenting in the Henley Global Citizens Report, FutureMap founder and international bestselling author Dr. Parag Khanna says, ‘Globalization is not dead — and certainly not from the perspective of Asia, where inward capital flows are rising on the back of a post-Covid reopening and genuine investments across the region in productive capacity. With multiple factory floors, multi-trillion-dollar economies, rapid urbanization, a rising middle class, and surging technological penetration, Asia’s continued ascent remains the major economic story of our age.’

China, Hong Kong (SAR China), India, Brazil among the biggest losers 

Wealth emigration is beginning to hurt in China, with net outflows of 10,000 HNWIs expected in 2022. Amoils says, ‘General wealth growth in the country has been slowing over the past few years. As such, recent outflows of HNWIs may be more damaging than in the past. China’s deteriorating relationships with Australia and the US are also a major long-term concern.’

In Hong Kong (SAR China) HNWI departures continue albeit at a slower pace, with projected net millionaire outflows of 3,000 in 2022 (a 29% drop compared to 2019). Brazil’s millionaire exodus is intensifying with net outflows of 2,500 HNWIs predicted — up 79% compared to 2019. India is expected to suffer a net loss of approximately 8,000 HNWIs in 2022, up 14% since 2019 when the net loss was 7,000. However, India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration each year.

Commenting on wealth growth projections in the Henley Global Citizens Report, Prof. Trevor Williams, former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial, says emerging economies are forecast to boom in the next decade. ‘As the world economy grows, economies in Africa, Latin America, and elsewhere in the Global South are catching up with high-income economies. And as this report shows, they will see a more significant number of millionaires and billionaires in the next decade. For example, the number of HNWIs in Sri Lanka is forecast to increase by 90% by 2031, while India and Mauritius’s millionaire growth is forecast at 80%, and China’s at 50%, compared to 20% in the USA and 10% in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.’

Relentless uncertainty fuels demand for investment migration 

Henley & Partners received the highest number of investment migration program enquiries on record in the first quarter of 2022 — an increase of 55% compared to the previous quarter, which was itself record-breaking. The top four nationalities currently driving demand are Russians, Indians, Americans, and Brits, and for the first time ever, Ukrainians are in the top 10 globally.

The Portugal Golden Residence Permit Program remains the most popular program in 2022, followed by the St. Kitts and Nevis Citizenship by Investment Program. Next is Canada, with the Canada Start-Up Visa Program the fastest way for entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals to access Canadian residence and the North American market. Rising in popularity this year is the Greece Golden Visa Program, and last in the top five is the Antigua and Barbuda Citizenship by Investment Program.

Dominic Volek, Group Head of Private Clients at Henley & Partners, says historically, many wealthy individuals acquired residence rights or citizenship without moving to those countries. ‘Recent turmoil is causing this to shift — more investors are considering relocating their families to other countries for a range of reasons, from safety and security, to education and healthcare, to climate resilience and even crypto-friendliness. It is important to note that nine of the top ten countries for forecast net HNWI inflows in 2022 host formal investment migration programs, which encourage foreign direct investment in return for the right to reside or citizenship. Investors can now see the value of diversifying their domicile portfolios as the ultimate hedge against both regional and global volatility.’

The Henley Global Citizens Report also features regional insights by investment migration industry leaders representing seven key markets: the Americas, Europe and the UK, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia and Oceania alongside expert commentaries by notable private wealth industry leaders such as Albert S. Yeo, President of BDO Private Bank Inc. (Philippines), Bijal Ajinkya, Partner in the Direct Tax, Private Client and Investment Funds Practices of Khaitan & Co (India), Yannick Archambault, Partner and National Leader of the KPMG Family Office in Canada, Matthias Ribback, who manages multi-asset portfolios for US clients of Vontobel Swiss Wealth Advisors AG, Murray Sarelius and Michelle Zhou from KPMG China, Ladi Runsewe, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of UR Family Office (UFO) in Nigeria, Ayuli Jemide, founder of DETAIL Commercial Solicitors (Nigeria), Tim Searle, Chairman of Globaleye (Dubai), and Giles Maynard, Senior Financial Advisor and Regional Manager at Carrick Wealth in South Africa.”

Source: Henley Global Citizens Report 2022 Q2

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Zelenskyy responds to petition demanding mandatory test for obtaining Ukrainian citizenship

2022/07/19 Leave a comment

More on the citizenship petition and reaction, particularly touchy given Russian weaponization of citizenship and efforts to destroy Ukrainian identity and citizenship:

The document was registered on the presidential website on May 23 by Vitaliy Kapustyan, and so far it has already garnered over 25,000 signatures – the number required for a mandatory response from the head of state

The author of the petition demands the introduction of a comprehensive examination for obtaining citizenship in Ukraine. It should consist of a test on the Ukrainian language, the history of Ukraine, knowledge of the Constitution, and the national anthem.

It notes that the exam does not exempt candidates for citizenship from providing other necessary documents, but that the test should be an integral part of the process of acquiring citizenship.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine, volunteers, and all concerned Ukrainians are doing everything possible to preserve the integrity of Ukraine,” the author of the petition stated in the explanatory note.

“Being Ukrainian is a privilege and at the same time a responsibility. In addition to the set of documents, candidates must show their respect and genuine interest in acquiring Ukrainian citizenship.”

In response to the petition, President Zelenskyy noted that one of the requirements for obtaining Ukrainian citizenship by foreigners is the level of command of the state language. This is determined by the National Commission on the Standards of the State Language, which sets the appropriate test.

At the same time, the requirements for obtaining citizenship do not include passing tests on the history of Ukraine and Ukrainian legislation.

“The issue of introducing a mandatory exam for acquiring Ukrainian citizenship will require legislative regulation,” the president said.

He explained that the government of Ukraine ensures the implementation of policy in the spheres of education and science, the comprehensive development and functioning of the state language in all spheres of public life throughout the territory of Ukraine, the implementation of state legal policy, and regulates migration processes.

“That’s why I ask Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal to look comprehensively into the issues raised in the electronic petition,” Zelenskyy said.

“The author of the electronic petition will be informed about the results of consideration of the issues raised.”

As scandal erupted in Ukraine on June 3, after adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko announced that Russian journalist Aleksandr Nevzorov and his wife Lidia had received Ukrainian citizenship.

Public opinion was divided, with some criticizing the granting of citizenship. There are no other recent decrees on the granting of Ukrainian citizenship on the website of the President of Ukraine.

It is also not known whether Nevzorov took a test on the level of his proficiency in Ukrainian.

Source: Zelenskyy responds to petition demanding mandatory test for obtaining Ukrainian citizenship

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Russia: Rules Related to Russian Citizenship for Ukrainian Citizens Updated

2022/07/18 Leave a comment

Citizenship policy as part of military strategy:

The Russian government updated the rules related to the Presidential Order that simplified the procedure for Ukrainian citizens seeking Russian citizenship. Now, children, spouses and parents of Ukrainian citizens are eligible for the relaxed process (previously only main applicants were eligible). Additionally, applicants now only need to show a migration card (or any other document confirming that the foreign citizen crossed the Russian border legally), whereas previously they had to prove residence in Russia, proof of income in Russia and knowledge of the Russian language. Lastly, foreign citizens without an address registered in Russia can file documents in any region where they reside in Russia.

Source: Russia: Rules Related to Russian Citizenship for Ukrainian Citizens Updated

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What this year’s ‘exceptional circumstances’ mean for 300,000 Canadians who got their passports late

2022/07/16 Leave a comment

Good detailed analysis of the numbers and the lack of accountability with respect to its delivery failures along with the application of exemptions from the fee-remission policy just implemented in 2021:

Ottawa has failed to issue passports within the required timeline to almost 300,000 Canadians in the first year of a new fee-remission policy brought in by immigration officials to ensure service standards are met.

According to the Service Fees Act, when an individual pays for a government service and there’s an unreasonable delay, the department involved must return a portion of the fee.

In April 2021, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada rolled out its remission policy for fees to apply to a program designed to attract foreign youth to travel and work in Canada; for the citizenship ceremony where someone takes the oath; and for passports.

Passport applicants, however, were not entitled to refunds this year due to the short nature of timelines and “exceptional circumstance” of the COVID-19 pandemic that officials say falls under a provision in the law enacted in 2017. Those circumstances are defined as situations outside the department’s control and include:

  • “Unforeseen” system disruptions;
  • Natural disasters;
  • Emergency situations that cause a closure of an office, a reduction in the service capacity or a surge of applications outside the department’s control;
  • Labour disruption.

Yet the number of people who would have qualified for fee remissions offers a glimpse at the extent of the delays at beleaguered passport services as Canadians look to travel extensively again.

Since the spring, Canadians have been camping outside Service Canada offices across the country to get new travel documents for planned trips as lives returned to normal for many, with border and public health restrictions relaxed. 

Public anger prompted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to create a task force in late June to address unprecedented delays in government services, especially in the processing of passports and immigration applications.

“We know service delays, particularly in recent months, are unacceptable,” said Trudeau. “We will continue to do everything we can to improve the delivery of these services in an efficient and timely manner.

“This new task force will help guide the work of the government to better meet the changing needs of Canadians and continue to provide them with the high-quality services they need and deserve.”

According to data obtained by the Star, the immigration department, which oversees Passport Canada, failed to promptly deliver passports to a total of 295,789 Canadians in the year between April 2021 and 2022. Of those, 217,139 received their travel documents between one and 10 days late, while 78,650 got theirs 11 days or more past the standard times.

The passport service standard was set at 10 business days for in-person applications; 20 days by mail; end of next day for urgent service; and two to nine days for express service. Applicants who got their passport one to 10 days late would have been eligible for a 25 per cent refund, while those experiencing a delay of 11 days or more were supposed to get 50 per cent.

The number of passport applications that missed the target time surged from 1,648 in April 2021 to more than 23,000 last August to 55,117 in January, before falling to 40,343 this April.

The data provided by immigration officials did not break down further in terms of how an application was received. However, in the 2020-21 fiscal year, 81 per cent of all in-person passport applications were processed within 10 business days and 78 per cent of mail-in applications met the 20-day target.

A five-year adult passport application currently costs $120; a 10-year is $160. If all 300,000 applicants eligible for remissions were applying for a five-year adult passport, more than $11.2 million might have been returned for the substandard service. 

Under the fee-remission policy, immigration applicants would be notified if their application was not processed within the established service standards and a refund would be issued based on the calculation method applicable for the fee paid.

Immigration department spokesperson Nancy Caron said this year’s remissions would have started by July 1, but have been postponed due to the pandemic, as the policy does not apply to applications processed in “unusual or exceptional circumstances” that may disrupt regular operations or result in “unforeseeable and significant influx of applications.”

“Remissions are not retroactive and applications received prior to the exceptional circumstances being lifted will not be eligible for remissions,” explained Caron, adding that exceptional circumstances are in effect for passport applicants with applications submitted between April 1, 2021, until at least Sept. 30.

For the International Experience Canada Program, which allows young people from other countries to travel and work in Canada, 766 applicants saw delays of one to 28 days beyond the 56-day service standard in the first year of the remission policy; they qualified for a 25 per cent refund of the $153 application fees. Another 222 applicants, who waited 29 days or more, would receive 50 per cent in remission of the paid fee.

In contrast, only 14 citizenship applications met the remission criteria, where days between a positive decision and first citizenship ceremony notice must be more than four months.

Remissions under these two programs totalled just under $50,000.

During debates on the federal budget that passed in June, the immigration department had asked for exemptions from fee remissions for a string of programs: authorization to return to Canada, rehabilitation for criminality and serious criminality, restoration of temporary resident status, and temporary resident permits.

However, clauses relating to the exemption were defeated by the standing committee in finance and were removed.

Caron said uniform and predictable processing times and service standards cannot be established for those programs as they are highly dependent on third parties such as foreign judicial systems and international public safety organizations.

“Due to the high complexity and discretionary nature of the decisions associated with these applications, few can be considered straightforward,” Caron told the Star, adding that officials are still assessing the status of those programs to ensure compliance with the Service Fees Act.

Source: What this year’s ‘exceptional circumstances’ mean for 300,000 Canadians who got their passports late

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects – May 2022 update

2022/07/16 Leave a comment

My latest monthly update.

May numbers are similar to April as the first months of the pandemic resulted in drastic shutdowns and reductions across the suite of immigration-related programs.

The number of TR2PR transitions continued to decline. While in 2021, these transitions (some double counting) averaged about 68 percent of all Permanent Residents admissions, in 2022 this share had dropped to about 51 percent, suggesting a decreased “inventory” and/or a conscious government decision too redress the balance and address backlogs.

Temporary residents (IMP and TFWP) continued reflected an ongoing return to pre-pandemic levels along with the seasonal changes in agriculture workers. The number of not-stated IMP has increased, from forming about 9 percent of all IMP in 2021 to about 23 percent in 2022, possibly reflecting coding issues.

International students, applications and permits, reflect normal seasonal patterns. As noted, given the number of media and other reports regarding private colleges being used more for immigration than study purposes (and related exploitation), IRCC needs to consider seriously disaggregating post-secondary study permits data to separate out public and private sector institutions.

Citizenship looks on track to continue whittling away at the backlog of about 400,000 (as if June 1st).

The number of Ukrainians arriving in Canada, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel remains significant, comprising half of all visitor visas in April and May.

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Legally Becoming a Ukrainian Citizen Now “Even More Difficult” – KyivPost – Ukraine’s Global Voice

2022/07/15 Leave a comment

More on the proposed changes:

Ukraine is one of only about 26 nations that does not allow dual citizenship. In recent times, including immediately before the February invasion, there were calls to change the citizenship laws to reflect the modern reality of what citizenship could mean in Ukraine.

Proponents argued that some foreigners, by merit, deserved citizenship: Such as foreigners who came to Ukraine and volunteered in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, deserved the right of obtaining Ukrainian citizenship without relinquishing their other passport. Other arguments were more pragmatic: millions of Ukrainians live outside of Ukraine, many send money home which contributes to the roughly 10% of pre-war GDP of Ukraine, and have obtained foreign passports which should not deprive them of their right to being Ukrainian.

Likewise, arguments were made that the current citizenship laws put Ukrainians living under occupation, such as in the Donbas, in legal limbo if they have chosen, or been forced, to receive a “DNR” or “LNR” passports. The hundreds of thousands, or perhaps millions, of Ukrainians in Crimea may have less appetite for returning home to Ukraine if they felt that they would be discriminated against for having received Russian passports – said some.

Earlier this week, President Vladimir Zelenski tasked Prime Minister Denis Shmygal with investigating how best an exam of the Ukrainian language could be introduced for those seeking to obtain Ukrainian citizenship. The President’s instructions came following a public petition that had been signed by over 25,000 Ukrainian citizens.

What will happen next with the legislation is unclear, but given the strongly patriotic public sentiment now in Ukraine, it is likely that the language exam will be introduced in the near future.

Source: Legally Becoming a Ukrainian Citizen Now “Even More Difficult” – KyivPost – Ukraine’s Global Voice

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Paving the way to Australian citizenship [for New Zealand]

2022/07/14 Leave a comment

Of note, a long-standing irritant being resolved:

By Anzac Day next year, New Zealanders living across the Tasman should get a better deal, after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her new Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese announced long-awaited changes to their rights.

It will mean an easier route to citizenship, as well as voting rights, putting them on par with Australians living here – ending more than two decades of inequality.

Under the current rules, Australians get permanent residence the moment they land in New Zealand and they automatically have the right to become citizens after five years. All they need do is pass a character test and a basic English language test, and have lived in New Zealand for at least eight months of each of those five years.

Most Kiwis are in Australia on a special category visa, brought in by John Howard’s government in 2001. Their path to citizenship is not so easy – they have to apply on the same basis as any other migrant, it is costly, and it is not guaranteed.

Leanne Carlin, who moved to Australia with her husband Richard and two daughters eight years ago, describes it as a “very weird thing”.

“You can come over here, you can live here as long as you like, you can work here but you’re not automatically a permanent resident,” she tells The Detail.

Kiwis, of course, pay taxes. But they cannot access unemployment benefits, student loans or disability payments, they can’t join the Australian Defence Force, police or fire service, and they cannot vote.

Carlin says they knew what they were in for when they decided to leave Whakatāne and take a chance on a new life in Brisbane in 2014.

“We didn’t expect anything from Australia. When you go to live in a foreign country, I don’t think you should expect them to take special care of you.

“But New Zealand and Australia have this trans-Tasman travel arrangement, so if you’re going to have an arrangement then make it an equal arrangement.”

When the 2001 changes came into effect, New Zealanders already living in Australia were considered permanent residents and could apply for citizenship, and they could access basic social services like welfare payments in the meantime.

Those who arrived after 2001 have had no direct pathway to citizenship.

“The Howard government was of the view that people were using New Zealand as a backdoor to Australia,” says Stuff‘s political editor Luke Malpass.

Malpass was in Sydney last week when Ardern and Albanese announced they had agreed, in principle, to end the situation where people are effectively left permanent temporary residents.

There are promises of a more “harmonised, reciprocal” regime.

Malpass explains to The Detail how relations soured between Australia and New Zealand and reached a low point in 2014 when the so-called 501 deportations started.

“The Aussies got into a habit of not really giving New Zealand anything that didn’t have any political upside,” he says.

“Even if it was bad for the relationship – they basically took the relationship for granted – they said we’ll go ahead and do it anyway.”

Last week’s announcement was a turnaround in attitudes to New Zealanders, both in the treatment of 501s and the citizenship issue, says Malpass.

Ardern has been calling for greater acknowledgement of the contribution New Zealand expats are making to Australia. She’s also pointed to the low rate of New Zealanders who become citizens compared with other nationalities.

According to the 2021 census, about one third of the 530,000 people born in New Zealand and living in Australia are citizens there. This compares to three quarters of expat Fijians being Australian citizens and the same figure for Britons.

After eight years in Australia, Carlin and her family are now on the path to citizenship through her husband Richard, who met the criteria for the skilled independent visa and was able to apply for permanent residency.

Carlin says her family has a good life in Brisbane and she’s happy to become an Australian citizen.

“It’s a means to an end,” she says.

Source: Paving the way to Australian citizenship

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Feds aiming to clear passport backlog in next ‘4 to 6 weeks’: minister

2022/07/13 Leave a comment

Or after the summer travel season! But realistic:

Ottawa is acknowledging it underestimated the demand for passports amid relaxed COVID-19 restrictions, and is aiming to clear backlogs by the end of the summer.

Speaking in Vancouver Monday, Families, Children and Social Development Minister Karina Gould described the long waits and uncertainty Canadians seeking the travel documents have faced for months as “totally unacceptable.”

“Where we want to be is people getting their passports well ahead of time when they apply, and that’s what we’re working towards in the next four to six weeks,” she said.

Throughout the spring and early summer, Canadians seeking to renew their passports have faced long, sometimes multi-day lines at Service Canada offices. Many who have mailed in their documentation have reported poor communication and lack of clarity about when their documents will arrive.

In both cases, some applicants have faced processing times of months, sometimes threatening scheduled flights or planned travel.

On Monday, Gould said the federal government had anticipated an uptick in demand when restrictions were relaxed, but not the scale of applications or the way people chose to apply.

Prior to COVID-19, she said 80 per cent of people applied for passports in-person, with 20 per cent applying by mail. This year, that distribution flipped, she said.

“What we didn’t anticipate was the level of surge we were going to receive,” she said.

“Quite frankly the mail system was not sufficiently staffed to deal with that. That is something we are fixing right now.”

Between April and June this year, Canadians submitted more than 808,000 passport applications, 166,000 more than during the same period in 2019.

That’s pushed the volume of applications for this fiscal year to 4.3 million, up from 2.4 million last year, and left federal public servants clocking about 6,000 hours of overtime a week.

Ottawa has hired 600 additional passport workers, but only about 100 of them have completed training, which takes 12 to 15 weeks.

The remaining workers should be coming on the job within the next month, Gould said.

Despite the uncertainty and extreme delays for some, Gould said the majority of Canadians are getting their passports on time. She said those who are approaching their travel dates with not documentation should go to a Service Canada site, where people with urgent need are being prioritized.

Source: Feds aiming to clear passport backlog in next ‘4 to 6 weeks’: minister

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B.C. scholar with expired Chinese passport says renewing it could put personal safety at risk

2022/07/12 Leave a comment

Reasonable assessment of risk:

A prominent Chinese human rights scholar working in Vancouver says her career and personal safety are at risk because of an expired passport and delays in Canada’s immigration system.

Guldana Salimjan is a postdoctoral fellow at Simon Fraser University, who also directs the University of British Columbia’s Xinjiang Documentation Project, a federally-funded program documenting the internment of ethnic minorities in China’s Xinjiang region. The project has been referenced during debates in Parliament.

Salimjan has a job pending at Indiana University in the U.S. — but no paperwork to cross the Canada-U.S. border.

Source: B.C. scholar with expired Chinese passport says renewing it could put personal safety at risk

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A summer of last-minute passports from a government that was too slow in spring

2022/07/08 Leave a comment

A number of articles on the passport and other delays.

Starting with Campbell Clark of the Globe:

A month ago, the strategy to beat down Canada’s passport backlog was to get people to apply in-person, rather than by mail. Now workers at big-city passport offices triage the people standing in the long lines outside, sending those travelling in the next 48 hours on, and giving others tickets to come back another time.

The minister responsible for the passport offices, Karina Gould, has started to tell Canadians that she is angry about it, too, or something like that: She calls the situation “totally unacceptable,” and insists more will be done.

But what Ms. Gould really needs is a time machine and a bullhorn, so she can go back four months to March to wake up the slumbering government machine.

That was when the uptick in passport applications was becoming visible. The alarm bells didn’t get sounded loudly enough, quickly enough. In April, the government announced it was hiring 600 staff, but it was too little. And now that more resources are being poured in, it’s too late – or at least too late to avert a summer logjam that has made travellers livid.

“We anticipated a surge, but we didn’t anticipate just how large it would be,” Ms. Gould, the Minister of Families, Children and Social Development, said in an interview with The Globe and Mail.

She said she accepts that people think the government should have seen the problem sooner, but it wasn’t easy to predict. “It doesn’t justify it by any means, because we need to do better and we’re going to do better.”

Perhaps hindsight is 20/20. But the government wasn’t just slow to see the tsunami coming, but slow to react. One problem, as the backlog mounted, was that federal public-health rules kept COVID-19 capacity limits in place at passport offices, with 40 per cent of wickets closed, till May, two months after restrictions were lifted for stores in Ontario, for example.

And more broadly, the federal government was slow to get a grip on reopening. The bureaucracy that delivered CERB cheques in a few weeks in 2020 didn’t spring into action to meet travel-surge challenges in 2022. Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government didn’t put the government on alert for reopening. The passport debacle is one embarrassing result.

The government notes that people are getting their passports. But it is often at the last minute, the day before they fly. The government is leasing space next to passport offices for waiting, or sometimes putting up tents, Ms. Gould said. “This is not the solution. This is just in the interim,” she added.

How did this happen?

In the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, demand for passports pretty much halted. Passport offices were closed. The number of employees shrank. When people started applying again, the numbers rose gradually. Then there was a surge. The immigration department’s forecasts of passport demand for 2022 were low, but revised dramatically upward in January, and again in the spring.

When applications started to pour in March, and pile up in April, there was another problem. In the pandemic, most people hard started mailing applications. But a quarter of them arrived with errors such as missing documents or blank boxes, so they took longer to process. The backlog mounted.

So officials encouraged people to apply in-person instead. And then the lines at offices grew. It wasn’t just new applicants showing up in person, but folks who had mailed in applications, and were getting nervous that their mailed application hadn’t been processed.

“The Easter long weekend was a worrying long weekend for me, because there was a big rush for people who wanted to travel,” Ms. Gould said. “And I would say that in mid-May we really realized we needed to ramp up in a much bigger way than we had been because the number of applications that kept coming in were much greater than the processing capacity.”

There was hiring – 600 in the spring, 600 being hired now and 600 to be seconded from other government jobs. Some get only part of the 12- to 15-week training so they can quickly do one part of the job. Workers were reorganized.

But the backlog of roughly half a million applications isn’t shrinking yet, and it’s a scramble. The government was slow to hit the panic button months ago. And now Ms. Gould forecasts that things will be back to a “steady state” by the end of summer, when most Canadians’ vacations are over.

Source: A summer of last-minute passports from a government that was too slow in spring

Heather Scofield in the Star:

Here’s a number the federal government would like you to know.

Between February and June of this year, the amount of Canadians travelling by air shot up 280 per cent. In the United States, the increase was just 25 per cent.

The number comes from Transport Canada, and the reason federal Liberals want us all to know about it is because they argue it’s why families are camped out at Canadian airports and why police have had to intervene in unruly passport lineups that stretch around the block.

For sure, a 280 per cent spike in demand for travel is enormous, and very difficult for normal-times bureaucracy and travel industry to digest. But it didn’t materialize out of nowhere.

The lineups that have thrown the delivery of government services into disarray are egregious, but they’re also a symptom of the post-pandemic disruption that has afflicted much of the private sector too. And the sooner we address that disruption with the full force of our ingenuity and resources, the better.

“Whatever it takes” defined economic policy on our way down into pandemic recession. The recovery requires an equally concerted effort, because this is more than congestion in airports and on the sidewalks outside Passport Canada.

The erratic flow of people is running amok in our travel industry, for sure, but also our immigration system, our labour markets and our housing markets, showing up in the form of massive lineups, backlogs, erratic prices and inflation. The disruption is not going away on its own, and there are serious implications for both our political landscape and our economy.

Let’s start with the 280-per-cent spike in Canadian travellers this spring, compared to just a 25-per-cent climb in Americans. It’s huge, but not a surprise.

After a couple of years of being mainly housebound here in Canada, we were then sent back home by the sudden restrictions imposed at the end of 2021 because of Omicron. Canadians finally burst out of their homes when Omicron settled down, and they haven’t stopped moving since.

The United States, on the other hand, responded with a lighter touch both to Omicron this winter and even before then, explaining why their wanderlust is not nearly as intense as ours.

Was that kind of surge foreseeable? Probably not to the exact extent we see before us. But one thing we have learned about how the economy and the public respond to the pandemic is that it’s in fits and starts. We have lurched from open to closed with dramatic and volatile effects on how things work.

Strange consumer demands have led to runs on toilet paper and used cars, and — more seriously — a perplexing and persistent shortage of computer chips and shipping containers. Supply chains have seized up, caught between the unpredictable demands coming their way and the unpredictable disruptions in the infrastructure they use.

And the job market is going haywire. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is fond of saying it has completely recovered from the pandemic recession because more Canadians are employed now than before the pandemic. But in fact, Stage Two of the pandemic recovery is upon us, where one million jobs sit empty and too-high inflation has dug itself in for the long haul.

We have to expect, and prepare for, a certain amount of chaos.

It’s too soon to abandon the crisis footing that Ottawa and the private sector shifted to in the early days of the coronavirus, when decision-makers quickly learned that projections based on how the world worked in pre-pandemic days were not worth much.

In the past few weeks, we’ve seen some attempts to regain that footing. Transport Canada is meeting with increasing frequency with the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority, border officials, union officials and air navigators to detect every single inefficiency in the airport system, and shave off time and effort wherever possible.

Vaccine requirements have been scaled back and streamlined, airlines have cut flights, and now their attention has turned into the nightmare which is baggage.

It’s hard to know if there is progress, and there’s a recognition that no one was quite ready for the traffic patterns gumming up trips everywhere right now.

As for immigration, the lineups for processing have ballooned over the course of COVID-19. A parliamentary committee was told this spring that the backlog stands at two million people — almost double the pre-pandemic list — and that was considered already way too long. 

Canada’s economic growth and recovery strategy is heavily based on increasing immigration, but with backlogs like that, it’s a bumpy road.

Over in the world of passports, there’s a similar all-hands-on-deck approach that has taken on added urgency as the intractable lineups made a mockery of internal projections and erupted into a backlash on the sidewalks and in the offices of MPs.

Extra workers have been hired, senior managers are now involved in triage, new offices opened, hours extended.

But the pivot takes time, and success is hard to see.

Over on Facebook Marketplace, one enterprising Montrealer was offering to stand in line at 4 a.m. for passport-seekers for $250 just over a week ago. He has since dropped his price to $200. Is that a sign the lineups are easing?

The Liberals had better hope so, because the public patience for queuing and dysfunction in the machinery of government has worn thin.

Source: On passports and airports, public patience with Liberals is running out

And lastly, Minister Gould on the reasons:

The minister responsible for Service Canada admits the government did not fully anticipate the overwhelming surge in passport applications that came with the lifting of travel restrictions and is hopeful waiting times will return to normal by the end of summer.

Families, Children and Social Development Minister Karina Gould said the federal government hired 600 new staff ahead of the anticipated increase in passport applications and renewals, but said “clearly it was not sufficient.” The surge has forced some Canadians to camp overnight outside of government offices in an attempt to obtain their passports.

“If I put myself where we were as Canadians back in February, we weren’t talking about this kind of a surge. We knew it was going to increase and that’s why we took the measures that we did. But I will concede for sure that they were insufficient for what ended up happening,” Ms. Gould said in an interview.

Service Canada issued 363,000 passports during the first year of the pandemic, from April 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021 – and that number jumped to more than 1.27 million the following fiscal year. The government has received 757,207 passport applications since April 1, nearly 60 per cent of the past year’s total.

Service Canada is hiring an additional 600 staff to help with the delays. Ms. Gould said training for some of the new hires is being shortened from the typical 15 weeks to one to two weeks, so that fully trained passport officers can focus on more complex applications, such as children with custody issues, while new hires will work on simpler files.

Ottawa is asking Canadians travelling within the next 45 business days to go to one of the country’s 35 dedicated passport offices for service. Waiting times topped more than six hours at some locations Monday, according to the government’s website. The government is asking those who are not travelling within the next 45 business days to apply at a Service Canada centre or by mail.

Ms. Gould said the return to normal waiting times will depend on the number of applications the government receives in the coming weeks.

“If volumes on a weekly basis continue where they are now and don’t substantially increase, we feel quite confident that we’re going to be in a much better position over the next four to six weeks and definitely by the end of summer,” she said.

The department has a service standard time of 10 business days for passport applications submitted at a passport office. Ms. Gould said 96 per cent of those passports are being issued within the standard, but the government’s website says they could still take up to two weeks.

Ms. Gould said the mail option is about “40 per cent less efficient” than in-person service. The government groups processing times for mail with the in-person option at Service Canada centres; the service standard is 20 business days, but processing can take up to nine weeks.

Raphael Girard, a retired assistant deputy minister who was responsible for Passport Canada in 1993, said the government needs to consider more creative solutions to the problem, such as extending passports for a year so officials can catch up on the backlog. He said this could be done by having Canadians bring their expired passports to a government office, where an agent could extend the document with a stamp.

However, a spokesperson for Immigration Minister Sean Fraser said simply extending expiration dates is not possible. Aidan Strickland said amending an expiry date that is not aligned with the electronic expiry date recorded in the Canadian ePassport could create further travel disruptions for the passport holder, and that the individual could also be refused boarding on a plane and denied entry to some countries.

More generally speaking, Mr. Girard argued the government has “lost the sense of operations designed to improve client service.”

“They’re layering on … controls and slowing things down, whereas 90 per cent of the workload is always routine,” he said.

Last month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau established a new task force of cabinet ministers to improve government services, such as passports, and monitor the delays causing chaos at Canada’s airports.

Conservative social development critic Laila Goodridge said Ms. Gould and Mr. Fraser, along with the task force, “continue to fumble managing the delivery and processing of passports. This is indicative of what we’ve seen with the Trudeau government that is unprepared for a predictable increase in demand for travel.” She pointed to a recent government tender for 800 chairs for people to sit on as they wait outside of passport offices.

NDP transport critic Taylor Bachrach said the continued delays for Canadians to get new or renewed passports are unacceptable, and that many people are going to their MPs for help to get their documents.

“Ultimately, the increased demand for passports was entirely predictable. But the Liberals failed to act even though they had months to prepare for travel to return. Now they need to urgently address this problem before more Canadians see their travel plans ruined, including speeding up the hiring process to clear the backlog.”

Source: Ottawa acknowledges it underestimated surge in demand for passports

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