Carney government’s new immigration plan: Who wins, and who is losing out

Good overview in the Star.

One slight of hand manoeuvre in the plan that some have noted is that the overall number of 380,000 permanent resident admissions does not include the one-time initiatives (115,000 for asylum seekers, 33,000 for Temporary Foreign Worker transition) over 2026 and 2027, which would bring the number for those two years to around 450,000.

Legitimate way to handle transition but we will need to see how it works out in practice:

Here are the big winners in the new levels plan:

Provincial immigration programs 

Although the overall permanent resident spots for the economic class have only gone up slightly from 232,150 this year to 244,700 in 2028, the provinces and territories will see their share of that pie growing from 55,000 to 92,500 via the provincial nomination programs (PNP).

The program allows provincial governments to screen and select prospective permanent residents who best meet their regional economic and labour market needs. 

“We don’t know how the provinces are going to allocate those PNPs, nor do we know the categories and occupations of the draws,” said Ottawa-based immigration lawyer Cedric Marin, who speaks on behalf of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association. “But clearly, it’s a win.”

French-speaking immigration applicants outside Quebec

The new plan will continue to boost the levels of French-speaking permanent residents settling outside of Quebec from 29,325 in 2025 to 35,175 in 2028. The increase may seem small but will ultimately bring up the percentage of newcomers proficient in French from 8.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent of the annual permanent resident intakes.

This move is not without controversy as French-speaking immigrants face challenges in accessing services and finding jobs settling in English-dominant provinces and territories. Under the skilled immigration selection system, proficiency in French itself has given francophone candidates an advantage over other skilled candidates.

“What we see is that French speakers outside Quebec are able to immigrate and have a much higher chance of success than those in health care, in STEM, those in other occupations,” said Marin, a francophone from Ottawa.

Protected persons who’ve been granted asylum

The Immigration Department plans to launch a one-time initiative to grant permanent residence over two years to 115,000 people who have been given asylum but are caught in processing backlogs in Canada. Officials said this number is in addition to the permanent resident targets in 2026 and 2027.

“The government was right to provide a response to the thousands of people to whom Canada has offered protection but no permanent status,” said Diana Gallego, president of the Canadian Council for Refugees. “It is not only life-changing for them, but also good for Canadian society as a whole.”

But there are people who lose out in the plan:

Temporary residents already in Canada

The Immigration Department plans to implement a one-time measure to “accelerate” the transition of 33,000 work permit holders to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027. However, as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, slightly more than three million non-permanent residents were in Canada.

Many of these temporary residents have worked, studied and invested in their lives here; they have been crushed by the reduced permanent resident levels and could run out of legal status any time.

“The concern I’m expressing has to do with the large number of people already here and the fact that we haven’t actually made a plan for them,” said Queen’s University immigration law professor Sharry Aiken. 

Refugees abroad awaiting resettlement to Canada

The federal government and community groups sponsor refugees abroad under Canada’s resettlement program. The new immigration plan will see the annual quotas for privately sponsored refugees drop by 30 per cent from 23,000 this year to 16,000 in 2026, while government-assisted refugees are reduced from 15,250 to 13,250.

The Canadian Council for Refugees said more than 90,000 refugees are currently in the private sponsorship backlog alone, and the lower quotas mean a wait time of nearly six years.

Permanent residence applicants on humanitarian grounds

Ottawa has offered temporary refuge to Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion, Afghans escaping the Taliban, Hong Kongers seeking freedom from Beijing and Sudanese affected by their two-year-old civil war. Many are only eligible to stay permanent on humanitarian grounds.

The new plan slashes the number of spots from 10,000 to 6,900 in 2026, and 5,000 for 2027 and 2028. “As you can imagine, in this context, they are losers,” said Marin.

Source: Carney government’s new immigration plan: Who wins, and who is losing out