Thousands of Canadians in Hong Kong can vote. So we polled them

Meaningless clickbait polling given methodology. Only reliable data in article is the number of expats who have registered to vote:

Within the context of political unrest in the city and new rules for expat voting for this election, new polling by Mainstreet Research for iPolitics suggests Conservative support is strong among Canadians living in Hong Kong.

In a first for the polling firm, Mainstreet surveyed Canadians who live abroad on which federal party they would vote for in this election.

The English-language poll was conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 1 using the method of “river sampling,” which draws on respondents to take a survey based on advertisements placed online. It received responses from 640 Canadian citizens, 18 years of age or older, living in Hong Kong.

Among leaning and decided voters in the poll, 57 per cent of respondents said they support Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals received the support of 23 per cent of respondents while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party was backed by 10.8 per cent.

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP received six per cent support, while three per cent of respondents said they backed Elizabeth May’s Greens.

Mainstreet cautioned that no margin of error can be associated with non-probability sampling, where individuals in a population are not given an equal chance of being selected to participate in the poll. The survey is nevertheless intended to represent the adult population of Canadians residing in Hong Kong.

Elections Canada’s figures show 2,015 Canadians have registered to vote in Hong Kong as of Sept. 29.

Roughly 300,000 Canadians reside in the city — making it the site of Canada’s second largest diaspora after the United States, according to figures reported by the Toronto Star.

Many Canadians in Hong Kong have family roots in the city. There is also a strong number of Canadians working for multinational businesses in the Asian financial hub.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet, said his interest in polling Hong Kong stemmed from efforts by a pro-Conservative group in the city to register voters. He said online river sampling allowed Mainstreet to target the region.

“While I have no way of knowing if the sample is representative, it’s still very interesting as a measurement,” Maggi said.

iPolitics spoke to organizers of the group, called Canadian Conservatives in Hong Kong, who said the political situation and how federal parties are reacting is a top-of-mind issue for Canadians in the city.

Hong Kong has seen months of pro-democracy demonstrations that have posed a serious challenge to its pro-Beijing government and China’s tightening grip on the semi-autonomous city’s affairs. These gatherings have often seen violence. On Tuesday, a teenage protester was shot in the chest by police — the first such use of live ammunition on a demonstrator.

The organizers of the Conservative group, which isn’t affiliated with the federal party, said votes from abroad can be influential if they are tallied in battleground ridings.

A Supreme Court ruling in January struck down a law banning expats who have not lived in Canada for more than five years from voting, effectively guaranteeing Canadians residing abroad voting rights.

In total, 38,401 Canadians abroad have signed up to vote in the federal election as of Sept. 29, exceeding the prediction of 30,000 made by the agency.

Source: Thousands of Canadians in Hong Kong can vote. So we polled them

About Andrew
Andrew blogs and tweets public policy issues, particularly the relationship between the political and bureaucratic levels, citizenship and multiculturalism. His latest book, Policy Arrogance or Innocent Bias, recounts his experience as a senior public servant in this area.

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