How to Know What Donald Trump Really Cares About: Look at What He’s Insulting – The New York Times

This is a truly remarkable analysis of social media and Donald Trump, rich in data and beautifully charted by Kevin Quealy and Jasmine Lee.

Well worth reading, both in terms of the specifics as well as a more general illustration of social media analysis:

Donald J. Trump’s tweets can be confounding for journalists and his political opponents. Many see them as a master class in diversion, shifting attention to minutiae – “Hamilton” and flag-burning, to name two recent examples – and away from his conflicts of interest and proposed policies. Our readers aren’t quite sure what to make of them, either.

For better or worse, I’ve developed a deep expertise of what he has tweeted about in the last two years. Over the last 11 months, my colleague Jasmine C. Lee and I have read, tagged and sorted more than 14,000 tweets. We’ve found that about one in every nine was an insult of some kind.

This work, mundane as it sometimes is, has helped reveal a clear pattern – one that has not changed much in the weeks since Mr. Trump’s victory.

First, Mr. Trump likes to identify a couple of chief enemies and attack them until they are no longer threatening enough to interest him. He hurls insults at these foils relentlessly, for sustained periods – weeks or months. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton have all held Mr. Trump’s attention in this way; nearly one in every three insults in the last two years has been directed at them.

If Mr. Trump continues to use Twitter as president the way he did as a candidate, we may see new chief antagonists: probably Democratic leaders, perhaps Republican leaders in Congress and possibly even foreign countries and their leaders. For now, the news media – like CNN and The New York Times – is starting to fill that role. The chart at the top of this page illustrates this story very clearly.

That’s not to say that the media is necessarily becoming his next full-time target. Rather, it suggests that one has not yet presented itself. The chart below, which shows the total number of insults per day, shows how these targets have come and gone in absolute terms. An increasing number of insults are indeed being directed at the media, but, for now, those insults are still at relatively normal levels.

Insults per day

Second, there’s a nearly constant stream of insults in the background directed at a wider range of subjects. These insults can be a response to a news event, unfavorable media coverage or criticism, or they can simply be a random thought. These subjects receive short bursts of attention, and inevitably Mr. Trump turns to other things in a day or two. Mr. Trump’s brief feuds with Macy’sElizabeth WarrenJohn McCain and The New Hampshire Union Leader fit this bucket well. The election has not changed this pattern either.

About Andrew
Andrew blogs and tweets public policy issues, particularly the relationship between the political and bureaucratic levels, citizenship and multiculturalism. His latest book, Policy Arrogance or Innocent Bias, recounts his experience as a senior public servant in this area.

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