Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he expects tough conversations with the U.S. on border security

Understatement?

…Mr. Miller said Canada and the U.S. have had “equal challenges with respect to the flow coming from the U.S. into Canada, and have taken measures to secure it and to close some of the ways people get in here in an irregular fashion.”

“That’s going to continue,” he added, saying he would keep on working in the national interest of Canadians, which he believes “is aligned with the current administration and the one that is coming in to replace it.”

“I expect that conversation to continue fully, and I expect there to be some tough conversations,” he added.

In 2017, Haitians streamed into Canada from the U.S. after the first Trump administration ended temporary protected status for Haitians who had fled to the U.S. The policy sparked an influx of Haitians claiming asylum at the “irregular” Roxham Road border crossing into Quebec. After talks with the U.S., Roxham Road was closed in 2023. The Safe Third Country Agreement was renegotiated, barring migrants making it to Canada through irregular crossings, including Roxham Road, from claiming asylum.

With an estimated 11 million undocumented residents in the U.S. facing removal, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has predicted that the “saga of Roxham Road” could begin again.

Mr. Miller said the agreement has allowed Canada to have a managed flow of migrants that is important to Canada’s economic relationship with the U.S.

“Are there changes to be made at any particular point in time when we see behaviours changing, when we see our security agencies advising us to adopt a different posture? I think absolutely,” he said. “Those are conversations that won’t be had in public.”…

Source: Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he expects tough conversations with the U.S. on border security

Immigration minister says ‘not everyone is welcome’ in response to concerns about Trump deportation plan

Needed message from the minister and lawyers identifying a possible loophole:

…On Monday, several immigration lawyers urged Ottawa to change a policy that allows migrants fleeing from the U.S. to claim asylum here if they cross the border illegally and evade the authorities for two weeks.

In 2017, Haitians streamed into Canada from the U.S. after the first Trump administration ended temporary protected status for Haitians who had fled to the U.S. The policy sparked an influx of Haitians claiming asylum at the “irregular” Roxham Road border crossing into Quebec.

After talks with the U.S., the Safe Third Country Agreement was revised and Roxham Road was closed in 2023. The changes tightened the rules, but allowed someone entering Canada illegally from the U.S. and remaining undiscovered for 14 days to file a refugee claim in Canada. Those arriving from the U.S. at airports and regular border crossings are usually turned back.

The lawyers cautioned that unless Ottawa changes the policy quickly, record numbers of people facing deportation by Mr. Trump would try to make it to Canada, where they could qualify for a work permit and health care while waiting for their claim to be processed.

Winnipeg refugee and immigration lawyer David Matas urged the government to speak to the Biden administration now, before Mr. Trump takes office in January, about changing the agreement. He said the 14-day provision is “an incentive to traffickers to get round the system.”…

Source: Immigration minister says ‘not everyone is welcome’ in response to concerns about Trump deportation plan

Opinion | Justin Trudeau’s immigration minister cracked down on Canada’s international student ‘racket’. Here’s what he wishes he’d done differently

Well worth reading. Some excepts of interest:

Terms of debate: “The issue is having the proper intellectual debate and not turning it into value statements about the race, colour, or creed of the people coming in, but also without painting people as racist when they express views you disagree with.”

International students: “The program had become a bit of a racket, and I probably should have acted sooner. My biggest mistake was to trust people for too long — to trust provinces and the institutions they regulate. Auditors general have said time and time again that Ontario and B.C. had to get a grip on things. Those are the two provinces where international-student placements had become a runaway train. And they were all promising something — permanent residency or Canadian citizenship — that was not guaranteed.”

Temporary Foreign Workers: “Largely hospitality. Go into a Tim Hortons, and you will see a lot of temporary foreign workers. When you take a step back, the questions you need to pose are, ‘How are we filling needs? Are we artificially depressing wages? How is an influx of temporary foreign workers contributing to that trend, particularly when you have a labour force already here?’ There will need to be further adjustments to the program, including in the availability of asylum seekers who have work permits. But we also don’t want to harm markets that are important to regional economies, like fish processing or food processing.”

Source: Opinion | Justin Trudeau’s immigration minister cracked down on Canada’s international student ‘racket’. Here’s what he wishes he’d done differently






How did a Toronto terror suspect enter Canada? Immigration minister offers first details

Note of realism in terms of border security but will still raise questions about vetting of international students and where extra vetting may be warranted:

…“I think our American partner would be highly disappointed to see elected officials firing their mouths off about and speculating about this case and its outcome,” Miller said. “We owe it to Canadians to keep them safe, to actually let the process unfold.”

Miller also said that borders cannot be made 100 per cent secure.

“No one can pretend and stand honestly in front of you and say that a well determined actor can’t come to this country, and that’s why we have the security apparatuses that we have in this country,” Miller said.

Source: How did a Toronto terror suspect enter Canada? Immigration minister offers first details

Yakabuski | Réparer ses dégâts

Strongly worded and valid:

S’il y a une critique qui revient sans cesse à propos du gouvernement du premier ministre Justin Trudeau, c’est qu’il met trop l’accent sur les annonces et pas assez sur la mise en oeuvre des programmes qui en découlent. C’est un gouvernement qui néglige de façon quasi systématique les conséquences inattendues de ses initiatives, se concentrant plutôt sur le message qu’il souhaite envoyer à certaines clientèles politiques visées. Il ne semble pas apprendre de ses erreurs, ou, quand il le fait, il est trop tard pour réparer les dégâts déjà causés.

La preuve de cela demeure sa gestion du système canadien d’immigration. Faisant jadis l’envie du monde entier, ce système était fondé sur des critères de sélection précis permettant au Canada de classer des demandeurs pour que seuls les plus qualifiés parmi eux obtiennent la résidence permanente, peu importe leur pays d’origine. Les libéraux avaient déjà commencé à déroger à ce principe avant la pandémie en créant des exceptions pour certaines catégories d’immigrants. À partir de 2021, toutefois, le gouvernement Trudeau a complètement chamboulé le système en rehaussant les seuils d’immigration permanente et temporaire afin de doper la croissance économique et de combler la pénurie de travailleurs dans certains secteurs de l’économie.

Non seulement le Canada allait accepter davantage de résidents permanents — en fixant une cible de 500 000 en 2025 —, mais ces derniers allaient de plus en plus provenir de bassins de centaines de milliers de résidents temporaires déjà basés au pays grâce à l’expansion massive des programmes fédéraux des travailleurs étrangers temporaires et d’éducation internationale. Les critères de sélection établis avaient été contournés pour favoriser ceux qui avaient déjà une expérience de travail au Canada, même s’il s’agissait d’un emploi à bas salaire ne requérant ni de compétences précises ni de diplôme de niveau supérieur. Mais en procédant ainsi, Ottawa pouvait se vanter d’accélérer l’octroi des permis de résidence permanente et de répondre aux demandes de main-d’oeuvre des employeurs.

Or, on sait ce qui s’est passé depuis. La crise du logement n’est que la pointe de l’iceberg, la conséquence la plus visible de cet abandon par les libéraux des principes qui avaient guidé tous les gouvernements fédéraux précédents en matière d’immigration depuis plus de cinq décennies. Le taux de chômage des jeunes de 15 à 24 ans s’est établi à 14,2 % en juillet, selon Statistique Canada, une hausse de 3,6 points de pourcentage depuis un an et le niveau le plus élevé depuis 2012. Chez les jeunes hommes, le taux de sans-emploi a grimpé à 16 %. La situation est encore pire chez les jeunes immigrants qui sont au Canada depuis moins de cinq ans, dont le taux de chômage s’est élevé à 22,8 % en juillet, en hausse de 8,6 points de pourcentage depuis le même mois en 2023. L’économie canadienne a beau continuer de croître, la création d’emplois demeure bien en deçà de l’augmentation de la population en raison de l’immigration permanente et temporaire. Qu’arriverait-il si jamais une récession ou un ralentissement économique prononcé frappait le pays ? Une « tempête parfaite ».

Cette semaine, le gouvernement Trudeau a enfin annoncé son intention de resserrer les critères d’admissibilité du Programme des travailleurs étrangers temporaires, pas dans un lointain avenir comme il l’avait plusieurs fois suggéré, mais à partir du mois prochain. Entre autres, la durée des permis sera réduite à un an plutôt que deux, et la proportion maximale de travailleurs temporaires au sein d’une même entreprise sera de nouveau à 10 % plutôt qu’à 20 %. Mais avec près de 2,8 millions de résidents non permanents au pays, plus du double du nombre de 2021, des experts s’attendent avec raison à ce que des milliers d’entre eux choisissent de vivre dans la clandestinité plutôt que de quitter le Canada lors de l’expiration de leur permis de séjour. Après tout, la plupart d’entre eux sont venus au Canada sur une base temporaire en espérant obtenir la résidence permanente par la suite, grâce aux changements de critères d’admissibilité introduits par les libéraux en 2021. Or, le ministre Marc Miller a laissé entendre cette semaine qu’Ottawa examine aussi maintenant la possibilité de réduire les seuils d’immigration permanente.

Le ministère de l’Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada et l’Agence des services frontaliers du Canada (ASFC) sont déjà aux prises avec un fardeau de travail qui dépasse l’entendement. Ils n’ont ni l’effectif ni les ressources pour s’assurer que tous ces travailleurs étrangers temporaires et tous ces étudiants internationaux quitteront le pays dès l’expiration de leur permis. Et on peine à croire que les libéraux, aussi dépensiers soient-ils, vont rehausser le budget de l’ASFC pour déporter tous les nouveaux sans-papiers qui ne quitteront pas volontairement le Canada. Le gouvernement est déjà accusé d’avoir fermé les yeux sur l’exploitation des travailleurs étrangers temporaires par certains employeurs sans scrupule. Procéder à la déportation de milliers d’ex-travailleurs étrangers temporaires forcés de vivre dans la clandestinité lui vaudrait d’être affublé de l’étiquette « trumpiste ».

Le recul du gouvernement Trudeau cette semaine ne sera pas suffisant pour remettre le système d’immigration canadien sur les rails avant plusieurs années et fera gonfler les rangs des sans-papiers au pays, avec toutes les répercussions sociales et économiques que cela implique. Il est difficile d’imaginer que ce scénario du pire surviendra dans un pays qui faisait autrefois l’envie du monde en matière d’immigration.

Source: Chronique | Réparer ses dégâts

Computer translation

If there is a criticism that comes up constantly about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, it is that it puts too much emphasis on the announcements and not enough on the implementation of the resulting programs. It is a government that almost systematically neglects the unexpected consequences of its initiatives, focusing instead on the message it wishes to send to certain targeted political clienteles. He doesn’t seem to learn from his mistakes, or, when he does, it’s too late to repair the damage already caused.

Proof of this remains its management of Canada’s immigration system. This system was once envied by the whole world, was based on specific selection criteria allowing Canada to classify applicants so that only the most qualified among them obtain permanent residence, regardless of their country of origin. Liberals had already begun to derogate from this principle before the pandemic by creating exceptions for certain categories of immigrants. Starting in 2021, however, the Trudeau government completely turned the system upside down by raising the thresholds for permanent and temporary immigration to boost economic growth and fill the shortage of workers in certain sectors of the economy.

Not only would Canada accept more permanent residents — with a target of 500,000 in 2025 — but Canada would increasingly come from pools of hundreds of thousands of temporary residents already based in the country through the massive expansion of the federal temporary foreign worker and international education programs. The established selection criteria had been circumvented to favour those who already had work experience in Canada, even though it was a low-wage job requiring neither specific skills nor a higher-level diploma. But by doing so, Ottawa could boast of accelerating the granting of permanent residence permits and responding to employers’ demands for labour.

However, we know what has happened since then. The housing crisis is just the tip of the iceberg, the most visible consequence of this abandonment by the Liberals of the principles that had guided all previous federal governments on immigration for more than five decades. The unemployment rate of 15-24-year-olds stood at 14.2% in July, according to Statistics Canada, an increase of 3.6 percentage points in a year and the highest level since 2012. Among young men, the unemployment rate rose to 16%. The situation is even worse among young immigrants who have been in Canada for less than five years, whose unemployment rate was 22.8% in July, up 8.6 percentage points since the same month in 2023. The Canadian economy may continue to grow, but job creation remains well below population growth due to permanent and temporary immigration. What would happen if a recession or a pronounced economic slowdown ever hit the country? A “perfect storm”.

This week, the Trudeau government finally announced its intention to tighten the eligibility criteria for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, not in the distant future as it had repeatedly suggested, but starting next month. Among other things, the duration of permits will be reduced to one year instead of two, and the maximum proportion of temporary workers within the same company will again be 10% instead of 20%. But with nearly 2.8 million non-permanent residents in the country, more than double the number in 2021, experts rightly expect thousands of them to choose to live in hiding rather than leave Canada when their residence permits expire. After all, most of them came to Canada on a temporary basis in the hope of obtaining permanent residence afterwards, thanks to the changes in eligibility criteria introduced by the Liberals in 2021. However, Minister Marc Miller suggested this week that Ottawa is also now considering the possibility of reducing permanent immigration thresholds.

The Department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) are already struggling with a workload beyond comprehension. They do not have the staff or the resources to ensure that all these temporary foreign workers and all these international students leave the country when their permit expires. And it is hard to believe that the Liberals, no matter how spendthrift they are, will increase the CBSA budget to deport all the new undocumented who will not voluntarily leave Canada. The government is already accused of turning a blind eye to the exploitation of temporary foreign workers by some unscrupulous employers. Deporting thousands of former temporary foreign workers forced to live in hiding would ear him the “Trumpist” label.

The Trudeau government’s retreat this week will not be enough to get Canada’s immigration system back on track for several years and will swell the ranks of undocumented people in the country, with all the social and economic repercussions that this entails. It is difficult to imagine that this worst-case scenario will occur in a country that was once the world’s desire for immigration.

Poilievre says he would cut population growth after Liberals signal immigration changes coming

Ironically, by reversing some of their ill-advised policies that resulted in overly rapid increases in the number of temporary workers and students and, arguably, Permanent Residents levels, the Liberals have provided a pathway for a more robust discussion of immigration. Given that this is based upon the impact on housing, healthcare and infrastructure, not xenophobia and fear of the other, immigration is not really much of a “third rail,” Telling that Abacus Data didn’t include immigration in their polling on third rail issues.

In case you missed it, my earlier analysis of what one might expect under a Poilievre government,What changes a Conservative government might make to Canada’s immigration policies. In retrospect, my assessment may have been too cautious as these policy reversals by the government make further restrictions more politically acceptible:

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said Thursday he would rein in Canada’s population growth if elected, claiming the Liberal government has “destroyed our immigration system” and insisting on cuts to the number of people arriving in order to preserve a program that was once widely supported.

Speaking to reporters on Parliament Hill, Poilievre said immigration was “not even a controversial issue” before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was elected, but a surge in international students and low-wage temporary foreign workers has ruined the “multigenerational consensus” that bringing more people to live here is a good thing.

“The radical, out-of-control NDP-Liberal government has destroyed our system,” Poilievre said. “We have to have a smaller population growth.”

Poilievre said a future Conservative government would tie the country’s population growth rate to a level that’s below the number of new homes built, and would also consider such factors as access to health-care and jobs.

That’s an imprecise metric that makes it difficult to pinpoint just how many permanent residents or non-permanent residents such as temporary foreign workers, international students and refugees would be admitted on Poilievre’s watch.

Poilievre has previously said immigration levels should be tied to housing starts. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported roughly 255,000 housing starts in July.

The federal government has already said it will admit about 485,000 permanent residents — immigrants who intend to settle here on a permanent basis — to Canada this year, with the target rising to 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.

In an apparent reference to research from Mike Moffatt, the senior director of policy at the Smart Prosperity Institute who has studied immigration and housing, Poilievre said Canada “cannot grow the population at three times the rate of the housing stock, as Trudeau has been doing.”

The government hasn’t offered a hard target for the non-permanent resident streams but has already announced an initiative to rein in the number of international students and, at the Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax earlier this week, announced a crackdown on low-wage temporary foreign workers (TFWs).

The number of non-permanent residents has been growing at a breakneck pace in the post-COVID era after the federal government relaxed regulations around TFWs and allowed Canada’s colleges and universities to dramatically expand the international student body.

Non-permanent resident population more than doubles in 3 years

In the last three years, the number of non-permanent residents — a category that includes TFWs, international students and asylum seekers — has more than doubled from about 1.3 million in 2021 to nearly 2.8 million in the second quarter of this year, according to data compiled by Statistics Canada.

Of that figure, 1.3 million people are in Canada on work permits, a category that includes TFWs.

The low-wage TFW sector, which has admitted workers in food services but also in sectors such as construction and hospitals, has grown from 15,817 such workers in 2016 to 83,654 in 2023, according to federal data.

The forthcoming changes to the low-wage stream will reduce the number of TFWs by about 65,000, the government has said, which brings it back to pre-pandemic levels.

Poilievre said the government has “destroyed” the TFW program by dropping a number of regulations that were designed to limit foreign workers to certain industries in areas with low unemployment.

The agricultural sector has long relied on TFWs to grow and harvest the food the country eats and exports, and Poilievre said he would preserve the program for that purpose.

But he also said he wants to “block temporary foreign workers where they are taking jobs from Canadians.”

He said he would only admit international students if they have a place to live and the means to pay for it, and possess “a real admission letter to a real educational institution.”

Trudeau said Monday the government is considering reducing the number of permanent residents Canada accepts each year — a potentially major policy change after years of increasing immigration levels on the Liberal government’s watch.

Unemployment high among newcomers

Talk of an immigration cutback comes as unemployment rates among immigrants and young people have crept up to concerning levels in recent months, according to federal data.

According to the Bank of Canada’s recent monetary report, the “newcomer” or immigrant unemployment rate now stands at 11.6 per cent — well above the overall unemployment rate of 6.4 per cent that was recorded in June.

Asked by CBC News if the government is considering broader changes to the immigration system beyond cuts to TFWs at a time of higher unemployment, Trudeau said the government is going to review its immigration levels this fall.

Asked if a reduction in the number of permanent residents is on the table, Trudeau suggested it’s an issue he takes “extremely seriously” and said that topic would be discussed among cabinet ministers.

“We’re making sure that the entire package makes as much sense as possible for the needs of Canadians and for the needs of our economy,” Trudeau said.

“We’ll be looking at unemployment rates and opportunities to make further adjustments over the course of this fall as we come forward with comprehensive level plans that will respond to the reality that Canada’s facing now and in years and decades to come,” he said.

He said immigration needs to be “done right,” and that changes may be forthcoming so that “Canada remains a place that is positive in its support for immigration but also responsible in the way we integrate and make sure there’s pathways to success for everyone who comes to Canada.”

Immigration Minister Marc Miller also said “all options are on the table” when it comes to addressing immigration levels.

He acknowledged that some people have expressed concern to him about the current pace of population growth, which is among the highest in the developed world.

Source: Poilievre says he would cut population growth after Liberals signal immigration changes coming

Government could revoke citizenship of terror suspect, immigration minister says

Always good to start with a timeline to determine what actions are possible. If Eldidi did misrepresent himself when apply for citizenship, then revocation is possible:

…Mr. Miller, speaking to reporters in Nova Scotia Wednesday, described himself a “disgusted as any Canadian” about the case.

He said he has asked his deputy minister to probe the timeline of Mr. Eldidi’s immigration to Canada including when they obtained permanent residency and citizenship. “Who knew what, when and how?,” Mr. Miller said.

“I hope to be able to provide answers in relatively in a relatively short timeline about what happened.”

He said Canadians “deserve answers” on the file.

“I’m also going to take the next step, which is to start the preliminary work, with the evidence at hand, to look at whether the individual in question’s citizenship should be revoked,” Mr. Miller said….

Source: Government could revoke citizenship of terror suspect, immigration minister says

More measures coming to reduce temporary residents, Canadian minister says

Stay tuned, more signs of reality, both substantive and political:

Canada’s government is preparing to unveil a suite of measures to clamp down on temporary immigration and has no plans to follow through right now on a broad program offering status to undocumented residents, the country’s immigration minister told Reuters.

“The era of uncapped programs to come into this country is quickly coming to an end. This is a big shift. You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop immediately,” Marc Miller said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday.

Canada has long prided itself on welcoming newcomers, and the current Liberal government has overseen a dramatic increase in the influx of new residents, especially temporary ones, as many employers struggled to fill vacancies coming out of the pandemic.

But over the past year the tide has shifted: Immigrants are being blamed for a worsening housing situation along with an affordability crisis in the country. Critics have accused the federal government of bringing in too many people.

A Leger poll conducted in July found 60% of respondents said there are too many immigrants coming to Canada.

“I’m not naive enough to think Canada is immune to the waves of anti-immigrant sentiment. … Canadians want a system that is not out of control,” Miller said in a phone interview.

Canadians “want a system that makes sense. And they want one that still has a lot of welcoming aspects we’ve been proud of, but it’s got to make sense,” Miller said, predicting immigration would be “a top issue, if not the top issue, in the next election,” expected to take place in late 2025.

The Canadian government has already outlined some measures. In January it announced a two-year cap on international students – an area of Canada’s immigration system that got “overheated” and was not meant to be “a backdoor entry into Canada,” Miller said.

In March the immigration minister announced Canada’s first-ever cap on temporary immigration. Canada wants to reduce temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years from 6.2% in 2023. That would be a cut of about 20% from Canada’s 2.5 million temporary residents in 2023.

But in its recent monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada expressed doubts that the government could meet its temporary residents goal, noting that non-permanent residents made up 6.8% of the country’s population as of April and that “the share is expected to continue rising over the near-term.”

The bank is right to say achieving this goal is a challenge, but it is a “reasonable” one given the suite of measures Canada plans to announce over the next several weeks, Miller said.

Miller would not give details but said these measures could include changes to post-graduate work permits and enforcement.

Asked if his government had made a mistake in allowing rapid growth in temporary residents, Miller said, “Every government makes mistakes. I think we are all human.” But “coming out of COVID, in particular, we were facing massive labor shortages.”

REFUGEE INFLUX

Meanwhile, Canada is seeing record levels of refugee claims – more than 18,000 in June, according to the Immigration and Refugee Board. This is despite government efforts to deter people by closing the land border to asylum-seekers through a contested bilateral agreement with the United States and by implementing new visa requirements for Mexicans.

Canada cannot dictate how many people file refugee claims but it can make it difficult for asylum-seekers to reach the country. Miller said the government may impose stricter criteria on temporary resident visas to prevent asylum-seekers from coming.

The government had also previously said it would pursue a regularization program to give status to undocumented residents.

That is not on the table before the election, Miller said, but he noted there is a possibility of sector-specific programs.

Source: More measures coming to reduce temporary residents, Canadian minister says

Clark: Ottawa has to do something about immigration boom, but it doesn’t have any good options 

Good capturing Miller’s dilemma as he tries to address the failures of this government and previous ministers:

…So what can Mr. Miller do instead? He can turn a lot of those temporary residents into permanent residents. He has already suggested that is part of the plan.

The problem is that means turning the goals of Canada’s economic immigration program upside down.

It is supposed to bring in people with the best potential to help Canada’s economy – highly educated or highly skilled applicants. But in recent years, the big growth in international students has come in private and public college students, with less education and fewer skills. Turning large numbers of temporary residents into permanent residents means accepting lower-skilled applicants.

And like it or not, those immigrants will take the place of others. There’s a target of 301,250 economic immigrants for 2025, and if the government creates a special program for lower-skilled temporary residents, that means fewer spots will be available for highly qualified applicants. Whiz kids with bachelor degrees in math or computer science will be left in the queue.

But for the next few years, the government will be digging the immigration system out of a hole. The big mistake has been made.

Ottawa didn’t stop provincial governments, particularly in Ontario and B.C., from letting their foreign-student industries grow to excess. The Canadian population grew at its fastest rate since the peak of the baby boom because of unchecked growth in temporary residents, rather than planned immigration. That fuelled a housing crisis.

Now Ottawa has little choice but to do something. And Mr. Miller doesn’t have any good options to choose from.

Source: Ottawa has to do something about immigration boom, but it doesn’t have any good options

Canada’s refugee system is overwhelmed by skyrocketing claims. What can Ottawa do to reduce backlogs?

It starts with reversing some of the visa waivers or relaxed requirements for source countries that are experiencing a major increase along with some of the post-arrival suggestions mentioned by lawyers. And while some will not like it, AI should be part of the triage process:

Canada’s refugee system has been the envy of the world. It’s recognized as being orderly, fair and efficient when compared to any other western country.

But as the number of asylum seekers keeps surging here — and with the queue and processing times getting longer, the beleaguered system is in desperate need of a rethink to save it from spiraling out of control and being clogged up in endless backlogs.

“It didn’t take long for me to realize with the team that we needed to maintain our ability to render fair decisions despite the growing intake,” Manon Brassard, who was appointed as the chair of the Immigration and Refugee Board a year ago, told a Senate committee in June. “We need to do something about that.”

In 2023, the country’s largest independent tribunal received 138,000 new claims, up by 129 per cent from the year before and by 136 per cent in 2019, before the pandemic halted international travels and slowed the inflow. In the first three months of 2024, already 46,700 claims were lodged, with a total of 186,000 cases in the queue.

In the spring, the federal government tried unsuccessfully to ram through some much-needed changes to the asylum system through an omnibus bill that it said were necessary to streamline the process and tackle a growing backlog.

Those changes would have simplified the initial registration of a refugee claim; imposed “mandatory conditions” and timelines that claimants must follow to avoid their cases from being deemed abandoned; and allowed immigration officials to hold on to a file before referring it to the refugee board for hearing. 

Immigration Minister Marc Miller told the Star in a recent interview that the status quo is unsustainable.

“It was unfortunate,” he said of the foiled reforms carved out of the budget bill amid complaints by advocates for the lack of consultation. “Those amendments were fair in nature, and they were intended to accelerate some of the processing.”

Miller said he has some decisions to make in the coming months and is not ruling out reintroducing the proposed changes in a new bill.

The refugee board’s dilemma

Despite an extra $87 million in federal funding over two years — and new rules to crack down on irregular migration through U.S. land border — the refugee board only has the capacity to process 50,000 claims a year. With more than 186,000 cases pending, it would take almost four years to clear its inventory, even if new intakes were halted.

And the board is not going to get more money. As part of the federal budget cuts, the tribunal must reduce spending by $8.3 million this year, $10.5 million in 2025 and $13.6 million in 2026 and beyond.

Without the proposed legislative changes, the tribunal has few tools at its disposal.

“Money is part of the solution, but it’s not the only solution,” Brassard, who declined the Star’s interview request for this story, told senators in June. “We need to improve the way we do things.”

The board is developing a plan, known as “Horizon 26-27,” to streamline its operations and processes with the help of technology and automation, but few details are available. The aim is that by next March it will be able to process 80 per cent of claims within two years, as opposed to the current 37 months.

Critics urge for greater efficiency 

Critics say that while the board does need more decision-makers, it must also improve efficiency, and the government could help take some of the asylum seekers out of the queue by providing them with alternative pathways.

The tribunal already has policies to expedite less complex claims, such as those that appear to have solid evidence and are from clearly troubled countries.

Brassard told the Senate committee that the board has a task force to review cases — covering Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Venezuela — for quicker processing and about a third of the claims go through the screening.

However, immigration lawyer Robert Blanshay said even if an asylum seeker is selected for less complex screening, the case is still required to go before a refugee judge for a decision.

He said the board could hire trained administrative staff to review cases and interview claimants to make a record for the adjudicator to just sign off on, to save time and resources for formal hearings.

“On paper, it has been implemented, but it’s been severely underutilized,” said Blanshay, vice-chair of the refugee and litigation committee of the Canadian Bar Association’s immigration section.

Immigration lawyer Maureen Silcoff, who served as an adjudicator on the refugee board in the 1990s, said there used to be refugee protection officers — neutral parties — tasked with interviewing claimants where credibility was the only concern.

“You had an opportunity to ask questions and get clarification about some points that might be troubling you and could be resolved,” she explained. “The member (adjudicator) who signed off on the decision did so with more comfort.”

Silcoff said it’s worth bringing back the eliminated administrative position and triaging cases into three streams based on complexity: those requiring a full hearing, an interview if there are a few questions, or just a paper review for the most solid claims.

Aviva Basman, president of the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers, said the current asylum process is complicated and cumbersome, and the online portal, launched in 2021, takes a long time to fill out, especially when a claim involves multiple applicants.

Currently, foreign nationals can seek asylum at port of entry or make an inland claim after entering the country. However, there continues to be inconsistent and confusing information, for example, about deadlines to file documents, depending on the entry point into the refugee system. 

The less complex file review process is also somewhat unclear, which discourages counsel from even making an attempt because it requires substantial resources to make a case.

“What you have is a complicated, cumbersome refugee claim process where a lot of people are having a hard time,” said Basman. “Having simpler, streamlined processes would be a good thing.”

Alternative pathways for refugees

In addition to adequately resourcing asylum processes, a recent international report recommends governments alleviate pressure on their refugee determination systems by providing safe, orderly alternatives through resettlement programs and regular immigration pathways.

“Narrow- or short-sighted policies that focus on only one piece of the puzzle are likely to merely push the problem elsewhere,” warned the report by Washington-based Migration Policy Institute and the Robert Bosch Stiftung, a German foundation

Silcoff said Ottawa could expand on initiatives that offer immigration status to asylum seekers employed in fields with labour shortages, such as a one-time program during the pandemic that granted permanent residence to asylum seekers working in health care and a current pilot that resettles skilled refugees abroad to fill in-demand jobs here. 

“That could be a win-win,” said Silcoff. “It meets our labour market needs and it helps relieve the pressure from the refugee board.”

Source: Canada’s refugee system is overwhelmed by skyrocketing claims. What can Ottawa do to reduce backlogs?