Thousands of former international students’ visas will expire soon. What happens next is murky

2025/11/28 Leave a comment

Would be nice if we had reliable exit data to know:

Tens of thousands of international students who were granted postgraduate work permits will see their visas expire this year, casting doubt on their futures in Canada and leading economists to wonder if some will stay in the country as undocumented residents.

There were 31,610 people with valid postgraduate work permits in the country as of Sept. 30, and those visas will expire by Dec. 31, according to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) provided to The Globe and Mail.

Those numbers have recently come under scrutiny by economists and immigration experts because it’s unclear how many temporary residents remain in the country after their visas expire, adding to the undocumented population….

In a statement to The Globe, the federal Immigration Department said it did not have an estimate of the number of people in Canada on expired postgraduate work permits. 

“Once someone receives a permit, they must abide by the condition of their permit, including the legal requirement to leave Canada at the end of the authorized period of stay,” the IRCC said in the e-mailed statement. 

Last year, the Canada Border Services Agency deported approximately 18,000 people, but the agency does not publicly break that number down by type of study or work permit. 

The latest IRCC data show that the number of expiring postgraduate work permits is down sharply from the same period last year, when approximately 70,000 were due to expire. …

Source: Thousands of former international students’ visas will expire soon. What happens next is murky

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ICYMI: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

2025/05/21 Leave a comment

Important analysis regarding a highly dubious assumption:

…But economists who have analyzed immigration statistics say that any reductions would not reflect the true number of temporary residents living here and may mean that pressure on housing and services will not be eased to the extent expected. 

Official population figures also fail to capture undocumented migrants who last year Mr. Miller estimated could number about 600,000. 

The economists warn that Ottawa is overestimating the number of temporary migrants who leave the country once their visas expire. This could have a serious impact on planning, including for housing demand, they say.

“The undercounting of non-permanent residents is an issue that must be addressed in order for this policy to be effective,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC.

There are just over three million non-permanent residents in Canada, according to the latest Statistics Canada population estimates. 

Non-permanent residents include international students, work-permit holders, asylum claimants and family members of work- or study-permit holders. 

Population estimates by Statscan presume that visa holders whose permits to stay here have expired leave the country within 120 days, but many do not leave and remain and work in Canada, said Henry Lotin, a former federal economist and founder of the consultancy Integrated Trade and Economics. 

“We know that many, perhaps even half, of these expired visa holders are awaiting permanent residency or a renewal of their temporary visa,” Mr. Lotin said. “The population estimates as presented assume expired temporary residents leave the country − that is a fiction.” 

“Policy makers and planners need accurate population estimates to plan adequate housing, infrastructure, health care and other social services. No one plans for population you are told you do not have.”

An analysis published last month by Mr. Tal, with input from Mr. Lotin, also expressed concern that Statistics Canada is not counting people with extended Temporary Resident Visas who do not have work permits. …

Source: Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, economists warn

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