‘Nobody wants to come’: What if the U.S. can no longer attract immigrant physicians?

Sad that Canada not on the list:

…”This is a real pivotal moment right now where decades of progress could be at risk,” says Dr. Julie Gralow, chief medical officer at the American Society of Clinical Oncology

She says policies defunding everything from scientific research to public health have damaged the U.S.’s reputation to the point where she hears from hospitals and universities that top international talent are no longer interested in coming to America. “Up until this year, it was a dream — a wish! — that you could get a job and you could come to the U.S. And now nobody wants to come.”

Gralow says, meanwhile, other countries like China, Denmark, Germany and Australia are taking advantage by recruiting international talent away from the U.S. — including American-born doctors and medical researchers — by promising stable grant funding and state-of-the-art facilities abroad.

American patients will feel the rippling impact from that, Gralow says, for generations.

Immigrant physicians have historically found jobs in U.S. communities with serious health care staff shortages to begin with, so those places also stand to see more impact from curtailed international hiring, says Michael Liu, the Boston medical resident. 

He points to his own recent co-authored research in JAMA estimating that 11,000 doctors, or roughly 1% of the country’s physicians, currently have H1B visas. “That might seem like a small number, but this percentage varied widely across geographies,” he said, and they tend to congregate in the least-resourced areas, reaching up to 40% of physicians in some communities….

Source: ‘Nobody wants to come’: What if the U.S. can no longer attract immigrant physicians?

A Rush to the Exits: It’s Not Just Immigration, Canada Has an Emigration Crisis

Covers the various data sources and issues. And of course, the issue of outflows has been increasingly prominent in Statistics Canada and work by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship and the Conference Board of Canada (Economic immigrants hand-picked by the federal government are leading a growing exodus of newcomers from Canada):

…Canada, as every schoolchild learns, has thousands of kilometres of undefended border. There are places where people cross officially, at roads and airports. Some people think of these border crossings as gates. But they are not gates. They are revolving doors. A lot of people go through them, in both directions, every year.

When digesting the economic data, it becomes obvious that the flow of people out of the country is following the flow of money. People want better incomes, better prospects. It seems like stating the obvious, but sometimes the obvious must be stated. The ones leaving Canada for the U.S. are the ones in a position to do so: the ones with globally marketable skills, independent incomes or inherited wealth, who can easily start anew elsewhere. And the ones who have decent incomes are usually the ones who have the brains as well. Canada is losing its best and brightest. Instead of easing, Canada’s brain drain is almost certain to intensify. Whoever holds office in Ottawa over the next decade will be hearing about it; let’s hope they do something about it.

On Harvard University’s Economic Complexity Index – a measure of an economy’s productive capacity – Romania jumped from 39th in the world in 2000 to 19th, just behind France. Canada is facing ever-greater competition from nations on the rebound just as it enters the second decade of serious economic deterioration.

Political leaders often tout Canada as a land of immigrants. In 2021, more than 8.3 million people, or 23 percent of the population, were immigrants, the highest proportion since Confederation. Never mentioned is that there could be as many as 5 million Canadians living abroad – one-eighth of the Canadian population. The inflated but often-insincere rhetoric about immigration, emanating from Liberal and NDP politicians in Ottawa and from much of mainstream media, has simply ignored the whole question of outflow from Canada, of how we have lost so many of our best and brightest – and, without major economic, fiscal and governance reforms, will keep right on doing so….

Source: A Rush to the Exits: It’s Not Just Immigration, Canada Has an Emigration Crisis

Exodus of high net worth Indians economic travesty: Congress on citizenship renunciation data

Indian brain drain political debate:

Citing government data of 2.16 lakh Indians renouncing their citizenship in 2023, the Congress on Saturday said the exodus of high-skilled and high net worth Indians is an “economic travesty” that will shrink the country’s tax revenue base over the next few years. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said business personalities are increasingly relocating to places such as Singapore, UAE, the UK and other places renouncing their Indian citizenship. 

In a written response to queries on Indian citizens who have renounced their citizenship, Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh recently told the Rajya Sabha that more than 2.16 lakh Indians renounced their citizenship in 2023. 

Ramesh, the Congress general secretary in-charge communications, said the number was almost double than what it was in 2011, at 123,000.

Many of these Indians who renounced their citizenship are highly skilled and educated, and their leaving the country at a time of a domestic skilled labour supply shortage will “extract a serious toll on our economy,” he said. 

“Many are also financially well-off – earlier this year, a leading global investment migration advisory firm had revealed that over 17,000 millionaires (individuals with total assets greater than $1 million) had left India in the last three years,” Ramesh said. 

This exodus of high-skilled and high net worth Indians could very well have been the result of opaque tax policies and an arbitrary tax administration, quite apart from the overall climate of fear and intimidation surrounding corporate India in the past decade, the Congress leader said. …

Source: Exodus of high net worth Indians economic travesty: Congress on citizenship renunciation data

Canadian Dream? High housing costs has two-in-five recent immigrants saying they may leave their province (or Canada)

Another sign that the value proposition for immigrants to Canada is weakening. How many will act on this deception remains unclear:

Canada’s immigration levels have reached record highs in recent years, but as more immigrants seek the Canadian dream from abroad, many who have arrived in recent years have discovered less of a dream and more of a nightmare.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds recent trends that have seen Canadians concentrating in Albertamoving south, or beyond Canada and the U.S., potentially increasing in coming years. Most likely among those to consider further relocation are recent arrivals. Consider that while three-in-10 Canadians (28%) say they’re giving serious consideration to leaving their province of residence due to housing affordability, this number rises to 39 per cent for those who have lived in the country for less than a decade.

Canada’s newcomers tend to be urbanites with skills to quickly engage in the economy, and housing affordability challenges in these urban spaces is perhaps compounding their uncertainty. In Toronto and Vancouver, the long-term risk would be one of losing the workforce required to keep the city cores humming. In Downtown Toronto, 44 per cent say they consider leaving, with 22 per cent saying this is a strong current consideration. Similar numbers also say this in the surrounding 905 area code. In Metro Vancouver, one-in-three (33%) aren’t sure if that region is a long-term home.  

More Key Findings:

  • Two-in-five renters (38%) are considering moving away from their province, compared to 28 per cent of homeowners with a mortgage and 16 per cent of homeowners without one.
  • The most common destination for those who consider relocating is another province in Canada. Nearly half say this (45%) with Alberta the top choice (18%). That said, one-quarter say they would leave for another country beyond the U.S. (27%) and 15 per cent would head south to that latter nation.
  • Alberta is the primary potential beneficiary of emigrants from B.C., with 35 per cent saying they would travel one province east if they were to leave. In Ontario, the largest group say they would move abroad beyond the U.S. (26%), while Alberta ties for second (17%) with Canada’s southern neighbor (17%).

Source: Canadian Dream? High housing costs has two-in-five recent immigrants saying they may leave their province (or Canada)

Emigration to the U.S. hits a 10-year high as tens of thousands of Canadians head south

The ration of emigration to the USA to immigration has, however, remained relatively constant: under 30 percent. So while concerning, the rate of churn does not appear to have changed significantly. The respective percentages of born in Canada, born in USA or born elsewhere (the immigrant/emigrant churn) do not appear to have changed significantly even has the overall numbers grew in 2022:

Tens of thousands of Canadians are emigrating to the United States and the number of people packing up and moving south has hit a level not seen in 10 years or more, according to data compiled by CBC News.

There’s nothing new about Canadians moving south of the 49th parallel for love, work or warmer weather, but the latest figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) suggest it’s now happening at a much higher rate than the historical average.

The ACS, which is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, says the number of people moving from Canada to the U.S. hit 126,340 in 2022. That’s an increase of nearly 70 per cent over the 75,752 people who made the move in 2012.

Of the 126,340 who emigrated from Canada to the U.S. that year, 53,311 were born in Canada, 42,595 were Americans who left here for their native land, and 30,434 were foreign-born immigrants to Canada who decided to move to the U.S. instead.

That Canadian-born figure is notably higher now than it has been in the past. It’s up roughly 50 per cent over the average number of Canadians born in Canada who left for the U.S. in the pre-COVID period.

United Nations data compiled by Statistics Canada and shared with CBC News shows the U.S. is by far the most common destination for Canadian emigrants.

There were about 800,000 Canadians living in the U.S. as of 2020, eight times more than the 100,000 who live in the U.K., according to the latest UN figures.

A number of Facebook groups have popped up to help Canadians make the move. Recent arrivals use them to share tips on how to secure a visa or green card, where to live and what to do about health insurance.

One group called “Canadians Moving to Florida & USA” has more than 55,000 members and is adding dozens of new members every week.

The real estate agents and immigration lawyers who help Canadians make the move say the surge is being driven partly by a desire for a more affordable life.

But there are also people who say they have lost faith in Canada under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership and want to pursue the American dream instead, these agents and lawyers said.

Marco Terminesi is a former professional soccer player who grew up in Woodbridge, Ont. and now works as a real estate agent in Florida’s Palm Beach County with a busy practice that caters to Canadian expats.

‘I hate the politics here’

Terminesi said his phone has been ringing off the hook for the last 18 months with calls from Canadians wanting to move to sunny Florida.

“‘With Trudeau, I have to get out of here,’ that’s what people tell me. They say to me, ‘Marco, who do I have to talk to to get out of here?'” Terminesi told CBC News.

“There’s a lot of hatred, a lot of pissed-off calls. It was really shocking for me to hear all of this.

“And I’m not sure all of these people are moving for the right reason. People are saying, ‘I hate the politics here, I’m uprooting my whole family and moving down,’ and I say, ‘Well, that problem could be solved in a year or two.'”…

Source: Emigration to the U.S. hits a 10-year high as tens of thousands of Canadians head south

Idées | Il est temps de parler d’immigration autrement

Critique regarding the impact on immigrant sending societies:

Avec une couverture médiatique croissante, l’immigration se trouve au centre des préoccupations de la société canadienne et québécoise. Des débats sur son acceptabilité sociale à son effet sur le développement et l’épanouissement du Québec, le discours a évolué vers des inquiétudes quant à la capacité d’accueil et d’intégration des personnes immigrantes. L’immigration serait-elle devenue un problème ? Récemment, les défis liés au logement ont cristallisé ces préoccupations, qui alimentent les discours sur les capacités d’accueil des personnes immigrantes, les seuils et le recrutement des étudiants étrangers.

Deux facteurs principaux expliquent ce changement dans le ton du discours.

Tout d’abord, les événements survenus au chemin Roxham à partir de 2017, notamment la fermeture de ce passage frontalier le 25 mars 2023, ont marqué un tournant dans la perception de l’immigration. Cette décision visait à modifier les propos entourant l’immigration, jugée trop négative par les gouvernements aux prises avec l’arrivée irrégulière de migrants. Le gouvernement du Québec considérait le passage à Roxham comme un fardeau, une situation indésirable qui risquait de compromettre son image et d’accentuer les tensions frontalières, notamment en lien avec la capacité à accueillir les demandeurs d’asile au Québec, surtout à Montréal. 

Il était nécessaire de dissocier le Québec de cette problématique frontalière en mettant en avant sa vision de société d’immigration, fondée sur l’intégrité de son système d’immigration, la sélection des immigrants désirables et la contribution des immigrants à la croissance économique de la province. Dans les semaines suivant la fermeture du chemin Roxham, les médias ont réintroduit le concept du « bon migrant », mettant en lumière les travailleurs qualifiés capables de pallier la pénurie de main-d’oeuvre et les étudiants étrangers susceptibles de devenir résidents permanents.

Ensuite, l’immigration de travailleurs temporaires est devenue un enjeu majeur pour le développement économique de toutes les régions du Québec. Malgré une politique gouvernementale visant à limiter le nombre d’immigrants à 50 000 résidents permanents sous le mandat de François Legault, le Québec a connu une augmentation significative de l’immigration temporaire — travailleurs, étudiants étrangers et demandeurs d’asile. Cette hausse, illustrée par une augmentation de 46 % du nombre de migrants temporaires en une année, de 2022 à 2023, selon Statistique Canada, répond à une demande croissante du secteur économique en matière de recrutement. 

Cette évolution souligne l’importance de repenser le discours sur l’immigration. Dans son discours, le gouvernement provincial a toujours rappelé que l’immigration ne devait pas venir déséquilibrer certains fondements de la réalité québécoise, notamment la préservation de la langue française et la place du Québec au Canada.

Hospitalité et façon d’habiter le territoire

Comment parler d’immigration autrement ? Premièrement, en répondant au discours de la peur qui provoque une régression identitaire à un niveau mondial, comme on peut le voir relativement aux frontières, mais également dans notre quotidien. On devient méfiant. On craint la personne qui ne nous ressemble pas. On agit différemment sur le plan de notre identité en excluant l’autre. 

Deuxièmement, il est nécessaire de présenter une autre option s’inspirant de ce que le philosophe français Étienne Tassin nomme « une utopie concrète », qui ouvre la voie à une réflexion novatrice sur la manière d’être hospitalier au monde. Il y a une actualité de l’accueil aujourd’hui qui demande de nouvelles idées, de nouvelles actions concrètes. 

Dans un très bel ouvrage, l’historienne Michèle Riot-Sarcey présente trois caractéristiques d’une sensibilité utopique. D’abord, il est important de faire émerger une critique radicale de son temps et de renouer avec une écriture de l’espoir. Il me semble que cela est essentiel. Il faut remettre en question le discours dominant de l’immigration, de la réalité de l’immigration, de la manière dont le système fonctionne, ce qui veut dire articuler une pensée critique des politiques d’immigration de nos sociétés. Ensuite, il faut reconnaître les expériences concrètes et humaines et ne pas rester dans l’abstraction, dans une approche gestionnaire déconnectée de la réalité. Enfin, il faut se donner la possibilité de penser un monde de la migration autre que celui de l’État et de la souveraineté nationale.

Malheureusement, il est frappant de constater à quel point nos gouvernements préfèrent adopter un discours utilitariste du besoin d’immigrants. Par exemple, on discute sans cesse de ce qu’apporte l’immigration au développement de la société québécoise, mais pas de ce que cette émigration provoque sur les sociétés de départ. 

L’émigration s’est inscrite dans un besoin de départ pour des populations en survie économique, mais aujourd’hui, ce qui domine est une logique carrément prédatrice dans la stratégie de recrutement de main-d’oeuvre des pays du Nord à l’égard des bassins du Sud. Qu’en est-il de la justice migrante lorsque des États siphonnent les infirmières et autres professions en pénurie ? Le territoire québécois se doit d’être plus qu’un réservoir de main-d’oeuvre immigrante. Montréal ainsi que les régions ne doivent pas être qu’un simple réservoir de main-d’oeuvre immigrante.

Source: Idées | Il est temps de parler d’immigration autrement

Mahboubi: The other immigration problem: Too much talent is leaving Canada

More commentary on emigration and the apparent churn we have between arrivals and departures:

The Statistics Canada paper also draws attention to the challenges immigrants encounter, extending beyond economic integration to encompass factors such as family dynamics and considerations, cultural adaptation, and the political, economic, or cultural conditions of their country of origin. Furthermore, the study highlights the phenomenon of transnationalism, where immigrants maintain ties in multiple countries. Some immigrants may plan to emigrate from Canada as part of a strategic migration approach. Not all these circumstances are easy for Canadian policy makers to address.

Other circumstances, however, are well within Canadian policy makers’ scope. Canadian living standards are stagnating. Weak capital investment is hurting productivity and incomes. Canadian businesses tend to stay small. Canadian governments rely relatively heavily on personal income taxes, with high rates that apply at relatively low income levels – not an approach that signals to talented people that Canada is the place for them. Tax reform and other changes that mitigated these problems would make Canada more attractive to everyone – immigrants and Canadian-born alike.

Paying attention to which immigrants are likeliest to leave, and why, can help Canada improve its ability to attract and retain talent. We may be able to refine our selection criteria to raise the proportion of talented, entrepreneurial immigrants who stay in Canada. We can make it easier for immigrants with specialized skills, in health care for example, to work in their professions. Moreover, addressing factors such as high taxes and regulations that stifle entrepreneurship can help Canada retain more immigrants and retain more Canadian-born talent – a win for everyone.

Parisa Mahboubi is a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute, where William Robson serves as CEO.

Source: The other immigration problem: Too much talent is leaving Canada

Is a waning Canadian dream fuelling reverse migration in Punjab?

Of note:

It’s hard to miss the ardour of Punjab’s migrant ambitions when driving through its fertile rural plains.

Billboards promising easy immigration to Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK jut out through ample mustard fields.

Off the highways, consultancies offer English language coaching to eager youth.

Single-storey brick homes double up as canvasses for hand-painted mural advertisements promising quick visas. And in the town of Bathinda, hundreds of agents jostle for space on a single narrow street, pledging to speed up the youth’s runaway dreams.

For over a century, this province in India’s northwest has seen waves of overseas migration; from the Sikh soldiers inducted into the British Indian Army travelling to Canada, through to rural Punjabis settling in England post-independence.

But some, especially from Canada, are now choosing to come back home.

One of those is 28-year-old Balkar, who returned in early 2023 after just one year in Toronto. Citizenship was his ultimate goal when he left his little hamlet of Pitho in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. His family mortgaged their land to fund his education.

But his Canadian dream quickly lost its allure a few months into his life there.

“Everything was so expensive. I had to work 50 hours every week after college, just to survive,” he told the BBC. “High inflation is making many students leave their studies.”

Balkar now runs an embroidery business from a small room on one side of the expansive central courtyard in his typical Punjabi home. He also helps on his family’s farm to supplement his income.

Opportunities for employment are few and far between in these rural areas, but technology has allowed entrepreneurs like him to conquer the tyranny of distance. Balkar gets the bulk of his business through Instagram.

“I have a good life here. Why should I face hardships there when I can live at home and make good money?” he asks.

The BBC spoke to at least half a dozen reverse migrants in Punjab who shared similar sentiments.

It was also a common refrain in the scores of videos on YouTube shared by Indians who had chosen to abandon their life in Canada and return home. There was a stark difference one young returnee told the BBC between the “rosy picture” immigration agents painted and the rough reality of immigrant life in Toronto and Vancouver.

Immigration services are a big business in Punjab

The “Canada craze” has let up a bit – and especially so among well-off migrants who have a fallback option at home, says Raj Karan Brar, an immigration agent in Bathinda who helps hundreds of Punjabis get permanent residencies and student visas every year.

The desire for a Canadian citizenship remains as strong as ever though among middle- and lower middle-class clients in rural communities.

But viral YouTube videos of students talking about the difficulty in finding jobs and protests over a lack of housing and work opportunities has created an air of nervousness among these students, say immigration agents.

There was a 40% decline in applications from India for Canadian study permits in the second half of 2023, according to one estimate. This was, in part, also due to the ongoing diplomatic tensions between India and Canada over allegations Indian agents were involved in the murder of Canadian Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

There are also hints of deeper cultural factors at play, for a waning Canadian dream among an older generation of Indian migrants.

Karan Aulakh, who spent nearly 15 years in Edmonton and achieved career and financial success, left his managerial job for a comfortable rural life in Khane ki Daab, the village where he was born in 1985.

He told the BBC he was upset by LGBT-inclusive education policies in Canada and its 2018 decision to legalise recreational cannabis.

Incompatibility with the Western way of life, a struggling healthcare system, and better economic prospects in India were, he said, key reasons why many older Canadian Indians are preparing to leave the country.

“I started an online consultancy – Back to the Motherland – a month and a half ago, to help those who want to reverse migrate. I get at least two to three calls every day, mostly from people in Canada who want to know what job opportunities there are in Punjab and how they can come back,” said Mr Aulakh.

For a country that places such a high value on immigration, these trends are “concerning” and are “being received with a bit of a sting politically”, says Daniel Bernhard of the Institute of Canadian Citizenship, an immigration advocacy group.

A liberalised immigration regime has been Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s signature policy to counter slowing economic growth and a rapidly aging population.

According to Canada’s statistics agency, immigration accounted for 90% of Canada’s labour force growth and 75% of population growth in 2021.

International students contribute to over C$20bn ($14.7bn; £11.7bn) to Canada’s economy each year, a bulk of them Indians who now make up one in five recent immigrants to the country.

India was also Canada’s leading source for immigration in 2022.

The numbers of those leaving are still small in absolute terms with immigration levels at all-time highs in Canada – the country welcomed nearly half a million new migrants each year over the past few years.

But the rate of reverse migration hit a two decade high in 2019, signalling that migrants were “losing confidence” in the country said Mr Bernhard.

Country specific statistics for such emigrants, or reverse migrants, are not available.

But official data obtained by Reuters shows between 80,000 and 90,000 immigrants left Canada in 2021 and 2022 and either went back to their countries, or onward elsewhere.

Some 42,000 people departed in the first half of 2023.

Fewer permanent residents are also going on to become Canadian citizens, according to census data cited by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship. In 2001, 75% of those eligible became citizens. Two decades later, it was 45%.

Canada needs to “restore the value of its citizenship,” said Mr Bernhard.

It comes as Canada debates its aggressive immigration targets given country’s struggle to absorb more people.

A recent report from National Bank of Canada economists cautioned that the population growth was putting pressure on its already tight housing supply and strained healthcare system.

Canada has seen a population surge – an increase of 1.2 million people in 2023 – driven mostly by newcomers.

The report argued that growth needed to be slowed to an annual increase of up to 500,000 people in order to preserve or increase the standard of living.

There appears to have been a tacit acceptance of this evaluation by policymakers.

Mr Trudeau’s Liberal government recently introduced a cap on international student permits that would result in a temporary decrease of 35% in approved study visas.

It’s a significant policy shift that some believe may end up further reducing Canada’s appeal amid a wave of reverse migrations.

Source: Is a waning Canadian dream fuelling reverse migration in Punjab?

Emigration of Immigrants: Results from the Longitudinal Immigration Database

Interesting study on part of the immigration churn:

  • Immigration is an increasingly important facet of Canada’s migration dynamics.
  • According to the emigration criterion developed in this study:
    • 5.1% of immigrants admitted between 1982 and 2017 emigrated within five years of landing;
    • This percentage rises to 17.5% 20 years after admission;
    • Annual probabilities of emigrating peak three to seven years after admission.
  • Several immigrant characteristics are linked to emigration:
    • Immigrants born in Taiwan, the United States, France, Hong Kong or Lebanon are more likely to emigrate. Conversely, those born in the Philippines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka or Jamaica are less likely to leave Canada;
    • Immigrants who never had children in their tax family were substantially more likely to emigrate than those who had children. This effect remains strong when other factors are considered;
    • Immigrants admitted to the country at age 65 or older and those with Nova Scotia as their intended province of destination are somewhat more likely to emigrate than those who landed at a younger age. However, these effects disappear when other factors associated with immigrant emigration are taken into account;
    • Immigrants admitted in the investor and entrepreneur categories are more likely to emigrate, while those admitted in the caregiver and refugee categories are less likely to emigrate;
    • Emigration follows a clear gradient based on level of education. Individuals with higher levels of education are more likely to migrate than less educated immigrants;
    • Immigrants who held a non-permanent resident study permit prior to being admitted are especially likely to leave Canada. However, this results mainly from the fact that these immigrants present several characteristics associated with emigration, such as higher levels of education.

Source: Emigration of Immigrants: Results from the Longitudinal Immigration Database

‘All I’m doing … is working and paying bills.’ Why some are leaving Canada for more affordable countries

More on increasing emigration:

Statistics Canada data estimate net emigration (which subtracts emigrants who have returned from the number of those who left) at 35,337 between mid-2022 and mid-2023, its highest number since 2017.

Some of those leaving say the high cost of housing and other essentials such as food are among the factors prompting them to seek to live somewhere where their money goes further. Analysis of federal data by the British Columbia Business Council, an association representing about 250 large B.C. businesses, suggests Canadians may be feeling those pressures for some time to come.

“Government forecasts do not expect a recovery in living standards in Canada or B.C. until at least 2027,” according to a recent report by the organization. “Canada’s real [gross domestic product] is now around $1,000 per person, or around $2,500 per household, below what it was prior to the pandemic.”

Source: ‘All I’m doing … is working and paying bills.’ Why some are leaving Canada for more affordable countries